Episode 215
David Laurila, curator of FanGraphs’ Q&A Series, talks with Steve Wynn of real-live rock-and-roll band The Baseball Project.
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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 15 min. play time.)
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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.
1. Expected wOBA Leaderboards
2. Notable MLB Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
Expected wOBA Leaderboards
A Note on What Is Expected wOBA
In the not very distant past, I experimented in the Notes with something called “Expected wRC+.” Expected wRC+ (or, xRC+) was essentially a version of Bradley Woodrum’s Should Hit formula (itself more or less a FIP for hitters with BABIP included) but with regressed (as opposed to raw) home-run, walk, and strikeout rates as the inputs. Also, for xRC+, BABIP was replaced by expected BABIP (xBABIP), per the formula (adjusted for 2012 league averages) proposed by user slash12 at Beyond the Boxscore in 2009.
The idea behind xRC+ was to estimate something like a player’s true talent over the course of X plate appearances. Of course, the methodology wasn’t flawless: wRC+ is a park-adjusted stat, for example, while the inputs for xRC+ were all expressly not park-adjusted. Also, while I’d adjusted the xBABIP formula to produce a league-average figure equivalent to the league-average for BABIP in 2012, it’s also the case that the I had not addressed the way in which the different inputs were weighted against each other. (Because I don’t know how to do that, is why.)
Fortunately, since my initial clumsy experiments with xRC+, Woodrum has made some new and useful contributions apropos fielding-independent offense — not only producing a formula to express a fielding-independent offensive stat in terms of wOBA (as opposed to wRC+), but also revisiting slash12’s xBABIP formula to best represent the current offensive (and, of course, defensive) environment.
Episode 214
Dayn Perry, contributor to CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball and author of two books (one of them serviceable), discusses what diseases don’t exist but should.
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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 48 min. play time.)
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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.
1. Arbitrary Endpoints Leaderboard: July Hitters So Far
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
Arbitrary Endpoints Leaderboard: July Hitters So Far
The Arbitrary Endpoint Leaderboards, What They Are
The Arbitrary Endpoint Leaderboards represent an attempt to compensate for the influence of early season narratives, which — likely owing to a cogntive bias known as the primacy effect — are often quite powerful and can obscure more recent, notable performances. (Note: this was discussed — albeit not in great depth — recently in these same pages.)
The Arbitrary Endpoint Leaderboards, What Else They Are
The Arbitrary Endpoint Leaderboards also represent an opportunity for the author to build most or all of a post around what’s little more than a regular leaderboard from the present site, rendered into the form of an internet table.
What Ralph Waldo Emerson Would Say About That
Ralph Waldo Emerson, were he not unavailable at the moment, would likely say something like, “[A man] is like a ship in a river; he runs against obstructions on every side but one; on that side all obstruction is taken away, and he sweeps serenely over a deepening channel into an infinite sea.”
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.
1. Apropos of Little: Oakland’s Chris Carter
2. Notable MLB Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
Apropos of Little: Oakland’s Chris Carter
What’s Probably Most Notable Today
What’s probably most notable today — so far as Official Baseballing News is concerned, I mean — is either how (a) Toronto is likely to replace Jose Bautista (en route to the DL) on their active roster with very exciting outfield prospect Anthony Gose, or how (b) brutally efficient right-hander Roy Halladay is making his return from injury tonight with the Phillies, or how (c) perpetually intriguing right-hander Trevor Bauer is scheduled to make his fourth major-league start tonight with the Diamondbacks.
What’s Most Notable to Right-Thinking People, Actually
Of greater consequence for right-thinking people today — more than the three Pressing Current Events invoked above, that is — more pressing is the player page of Oakland first baseman Chris Carter.
What the Author, Personally, Would Do to Chris Carter’s Player Page
Meditate all up on it, is what.
Episode 213
FanGraphs managing editor Dave Cameron, as per usual, makes his weekly appearance on FanGraphs Audio and analyzes all baseball.
Discussed:
• Cameron’s Trade Value series, how the 2012 installment might differ from previous ones.
• Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, and Justin Upton, if they’re getting traded and to whom.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates, how the 2012 installment might differ from previous ones.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 41 min. play time.)
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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.
1. First-Round Draftees: Results from the Signing Deadline
2. Notable MLB Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
First-Round Draftees: Results from the Signing Deadline
Some Information for the Reader
This past Friday was the deadline for signing players selected in the most recent draft. Below is a table of this year’s first-round draftees and their corresponding signing bonuses.
Of Note in re the Following Table, Who’s Missing From It
The reader will note that one draftee — Mark Appel, the right-handed pitcher out of Stanford, selected eighth overall by Pittsburgh — has been omitted from the following table. Appel failed to reach an agreement with the Pirates and will return to Stanford for his senior year.
How Pittsburgh Is Affected by Failing to Sign Appel
On account of they were unable to sign Appel, Pittsburgh will now receive — in addition to whatever normal pick they get — Pittsburgh will now also receive the ninth-overall pick in next year’s draft.
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.
1. Featured Game: New York NL at Atlanta, 13:35 ET (Free Game)
2. Another Notable Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
Featured Game: New York NL at Atlanta, 13:35 ET
Regarding the Year 2004, What the Reader Might’ve Forgotten About It
So far as the year 2004 is concerned, it’s possible that the reader — owing to an excess either of formative experiences in the interim or, alternatively, of fermented beverages in the interim — it’s possible that the reader has forgotten how Arizona left-hander Randy Johnson was the very best pitcher in baseball that season, with a league-best WAR (among pitchers, at least) of 9.9 and league-best SIERA (among qualified pitchers, at least) of 2.58.
Regarding 2004, What Else the Reader Has Forgotten About It
That a gallon of gas only cost a nickel, is probably one thing the reader has forgotten, and that a handshake agreement meant something, goddammit — unless one lacked hands, that is, in which case a more conventional written contract was an entirely reasonable substitute.
Regarding 2004, Another Thing the Reader Has Forgotten About It
The reader has almost definitely forgotten that pitchers Ben Sheets (8.0) and Johan Santana (7.7) finished second and third, respectively, among all pitchers according to WAR in 2004 — and also that Sheets (2.67) and Santana (2.77) finished second and third, respectively, among all qualified pitchers per SIERA in that same season.
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.
1. Featured Game: Detroit at Baltimore, 16:05 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
Featured Game: Detroit at Baltimore, 16:05 ET
A Thing the Reader Might Notice
A thing the reader might notice is that, while the Mets-Braves game has actually received tonight’s highest NERD score — NERD being the infallible metric by which the watchability of a game is adjudged infallibly — that the author has bestowed upon this contest the title of Featured Game.
Regarding the Author’s Actions, How He Justifies Them
The author, everyone should know, has taken what is frequently referred to — or, at least, was frequently referred to, at the height of W.C. Fields’ career — has taken what’s known as “a shine” to tonight’s starter for Detroit, right-hander Max Scherzer.
Why the Author Would Do That Type of Thing
It’s possible that the author would take some interest in Scherzer, owing to how he (i.e. Max Scherzer) has posted a 4.72 ERA but only a 3.72 FIP and only a 3.28 xFIP and then only a 3.08 SIERA — that last figure representing the fourth-best such mark among the league’s 97 qualified starters.
Episode 212
RotoGraphs contributor Zach Sanders is the guest on this Fantasy Friday edition of FanGraphs Audio.
Discussed:
• Bullpens and save opportunities — and, in particular, how the upcoming trade deadline might affect both.
• RotoGraphs’ mid-season position-by-position consensus rankings, surprises therein.
• The Futures Game: four names Sanders remembers from it.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 41 min. play time.)
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