Author Archive

Daily Notes: Kershaw in the Afternoon

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: Los Angeles NL at Colorado, 15:10 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
4. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: Baltimore Radio

Featured Game: Los Angeles NL at Colorado, 15:10 ET
A Note on Who’s Starting for Los Angeles
Left-hander Clayton Kershaw is starting for Los Angeles.

Regarding Some Things the Reader Likely Knows About Clayton Kershaw
In terms of Clayton Kershaw, the reader is likely aware that (a) he was the Cy Young of the National League last year, that (b) he was also among the National League leaders in pitcher WAR, and that (c) both his fastball and slider are among the best pitches in the majors.

Regarding a Thing the Reader Might Not Know About Clayton Kershaw
The reader might not know that Clayton Kershaw is one of only five pitchers (along with R.A. Dickey, Stephen Strasburg, Cole Hamels, and Jeff Samardzija) who currently possess a perfect 10 according to NERD — i.e. the made-up stat that, according to the present author, measures the likely aesthetic appeal (or, watchability) of a player or team or whatever.

Regarding to What Degree You Should Trust Said Author
Probably not that much, actually.

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Daily Notes: It Feels Wrong, But It’s So Wainwright

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: Pittsburgh at St. Louis, 20:15 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
4. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: Boston Radio

Featured Game: Pittsburgh at St. Louis, 20:15 ET
Regarding What a Person Could Assume About Adam Wainwright
A person — even a person with, like, a degree from an important liberal arts college and health insurance through his work — even that sort of person could reasonably assume that, owing to how Adam Wainwright (tonight’s starter for St. Louis) has conceded 16 runs in 19.2 innings (i.e. has posted a 7.50 ERA), that Wainwright has pitched poorly this season.

Regarding What Is More Likely the Case
It’s more likely the case that, owing to his excellent defense-independent numbers (24.1% K, 5.8% BB, and 52.5% GB in 19.2 IP), that Adam Wainwright has performed like a pitcher who would normally allow fewer than three earned runs per nine innings.

Regarding Wainwright’s Numbers, Career-Wise
Here’s how some of Wainwright’s current defense-independent numbers would compare to past years for him:

• Strikeout Rate: Career-High
• Walk Rate: Career-Low
• Ground-Ball Rate: Career-High

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Leaderboards of Pleasure – 4/30/12


What? It’s just science.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for this edition of the Leaderboards of Pleasure.

1. A Brief Introduction to This Very Important Thing
2. Team NERD: Current Formula and Leaderboard
3. Pitcher NERD: Current Formula and Leaderboard

A Brief Introduction to This Very Important Thing
Regarding What Is the Leaderboards of Pleasure
The Leaderboards of Pleasure (past editions of which you can find by clicking here) is a mostly weekly feature of FanGraphs during the season and is composed mostly of the different NERD leaderboards.

Regarding What Is NERD
NERD is the result of an attempt to represent numerically the likely aesthetic appeal of a pitcher, team, game, etc. to the baseball nerd (i.e. you, reading this). It was developed as a response to a challenge issued to the author by Rob Neyer in May of 2010.

Specifically, NERD is a score (on a 0-10 scale) given to pitchers, teams, games, etc. that’s calculated using metrics available here at the site. When pitcher and team scores are combined in game scores (like those that appeared in today’s edition of Daily Notes), it’s possible to approximate, with at least some accuracy, which games might be of greatest (or least) interest to the baseball nerd.

Regarding the History of NERD, Part I
The history of NERD is like an ouroboros, except that way fewer people have tattoos of it.

Regarding the History of NERD, Part II
Discussions of Pitcher and Team NERD can be found here and here, respectively.

Regarding What You’ll Find Below
Wondrous spectacles and mysterious mysteries, predominantly.

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FanGraphs Audio: Dave Cameron

Episode 174
Managing editor Dave Cameron makes his weekly appearance on this Monday edition of FanGraphs Audio. Topic discussed: April records, what they do and don’t mean (especially for the Angels and Dodgers); this week’s edition of the SI.com power rankings; and the recent promotions of both Bryce Harper and Mike Trout, what their roles might be with their respective clubs.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 33 min. play time.)

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Daily Notes: Presenting the Season Debut of NERD

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Important Announcement: NERD Is Now Available
2. Featured Game: Arizona at Miami, 12:40 ET
3. All of Today’s Games

Important Announcement: NERD Is Now Available
Important Announcement
There’s an important announcement everyone needs to hear and it’s that NERD, in all its forms, is now available for the 2012 season.

Regarding What Is NERD
NERD is the result of an attempt to represent numerically the likely aesthetic appeal of a pitcher, team, game, etc. to the baseball nerd (i.e. you, reading this). Specifically, NERD is a score (on a 0-10 scale) given to pitchers, teams, games, etc. that’s calculated using metrics available here at the site. When pitcher and team scores are combined in game scores, it’s possible to approximate, with at least some accuracy, which games might be of greatest (or least) interest to the baseball nerd.

Regarding How NERD Is Calculated
The formulae for the various NERD scores for 2012 remain mostly unchanged from the iterations that appeared in the One Night Only game previews at the end of last season. Follow these links for the relevant information: Pitcher NERD (scroll down a little), Team NERD.

Regarding NERD Leaderboards
Readers will be able to view NERD leaderboards and laggardboards — along with some notes on minor changes to the weighting and calculation of NERD — in the season debut, this afternoon, of the Leaderboards of Pleasure.

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Chad Billingsley’s Perfect Called Strikes

Saturday night’s contest between the Nationals and Dodgers — not coincidentally one of the weekend games previewed in the Friday edition of the perpetually infallible Daily Notes — was an excellent one (box). Uberprospect Bryce Harper made his major-league debut, hitting an impressive line-drive double to the center-field wall (video) and also displaying his strong, accurate throwing arm (video); Stephen Strasburg struck out a third of the 27 batters he faced while walking none, posting a single-game xFIP of 1.82 (video); and Matt Kemp hit his league-leading 11th home run to win the game in extra innings (video). The game’s average leverage index (1.83) was easily the highest of the day.

A quieter, but still notable, feat was performed by Dodger starter Chad Billingsley in the top of the second inning. Facing Danny Espinosa, he threw what amounted to two ideal pitches for called strikes to begin the at-bat.

Generally speaking, a hitter that isn’t Jeff Francoeur will begin a plate appearance looking for a pitch in a particular area, and will increase or decrease his swing zone depending on the count. Accordingly, if a pitcher is able to locate a pitch both (a) inside the strike zone but (b) outside of the hitter’s swing zone — that is, outside of the area where a batter believes he could drive the ball — then he will gain an advantage.

What sort of advantage? Consider: per Baseball Reference, National League batters are hitting .159/.188/.233 (21 OPS+) this season after reaching an 0-2 count. Meanwhile, those same batters have a 92 OPS+ after a 1-1 count and a 161 OPS+ after 2-0. That the difference, basically between the 2011 version of Prince Fielder, on the one hand, and the 2011 version of Ian Stewart, on the other.

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FanGraphs Audio: Fantasy Friday with Ben Duronio

Episode 173
RotoGraphs contributor Ben Duronio is the guest on this Fantasy Friday edition of FanGraphs Audio. In this episode: the pod’s weekly Hector Santiago Status Update, and some attention to other closer situation of note; a discussion of injury prone, but talented, starting pitchers (a list starting, but not ending, with the name Jake Peavy); a brief digression in praise of Brandon Beachy’s fastball; and some sell-high, buy-low candidates.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 40 min. play time.)

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Daily Notes: Notable Weekend Games

UPDATE: according to the entire internet, very celebrated prospect Bryce Harper will be making his major-league debut on Saturday. As noted below, Washington plays Los Angeles at 9:10pm ET on Saturday and 4:10pm ET on Sunday.

***

Below are brief previews for notable weekend games — each including the preferred television feed of FanGraphs readers, per the results of our offseason crowdsourcing project.

Furthermore, for the benefit of those whose viewing options are limited, each day contains a preview for that day’s featured MLB.TV Free Game.

All stats current as of Thursday, except when they’re current as of Friday.

Friday, April 27th
Los Angeles AL at Cleveland | 19:05 ET
• As noted in yesterday’s edition of Daily Notes, which all of America — and probably some of the more important European countries — will have read with rapt attention, the Cleveland Indians entered Thursday with a considerably higher walk rate (13.1%) than even the next-highest team (Tampa Bay, 10.9%).
• Indeed, this trend continued on Thursday (box), with Cleveland walking five times in 38 plate appearances (13.2%) against Kansas City.
• Here are the team leaders in that regard: Carlos Santana (68 PA, 22.1% BB), Travis Hafner (64, 21.9%), and Shelley Duncan (61, 19.7%).
• In light of this stirring information, the reader is certainly forgiven for wanting to regain his breath and/or compsoure.
• After he recovers, however, the reader will also want to know that the starting pitchers for this game are Jered Weaver (29.2 IP, 65 xFIP-, 1.1 WAR) and Justin Masterson (21.2, 116, 0.0).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles AL.

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FanGraphs Audio: In the Clubhouse with Jack Cust

Episode 172
David Laurila, curator of FanGraphs’ Q&A Series, talks with power-hitting journeyman and current Yankees minor leaguer Jack Cust in the clubhouse of McCoy Stadium, home of the Triple-A Pawtucket Red Sox.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 14 min. play time.)

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Daily Notes: The Return of Humber

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Brief Previews of Select Games
2. Non-Extant Highlight Video: The Cleveland Indians Walking
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: Chicago (AL) Radio

Brief Previews of Select Games
Here are brief previews for three of today’s games — each including the preferred television feed of FanGraphs readers, per the results of our offseason crowdsourcing project. (Information on probable pitchers from MLB.com.)

Kansas City at Cleveland | 12:05 ET
• To those readers who feel truly safe only within the warm embrace of a baseballing broadcast: be apprised that this is the earliest game of the day.
• To those readers who possess particularly low estimations of Josh Tomlin (pitching for Cleveland): note that he’s posted this line through three starts: 16.2 IP, 20.6% K, 1.5% BB, 34.6% GB, 3.01 SIERA, 2.63 xFIP, 65 xFIP-, 0.4 WAR.
• To those readers who’re wondering which team is leading the league in walk percentage, by kinda a lot: it’s Cleveland (13.1%).
• Regarding which team is in second: Tampa Bay (10.9%).
• Regarding who pitches for Kansas City: Luis Mendoza (13.0 IP, 132 xFIP-, -0.2 WAR).

MLB.TV Audio Feed: Kansas City.

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