Tonight’s edition of One Night Only is a little bit really caliente.

(Games listed in order of likely awesomness. NERD scores in parentheses.)

New York Nationals (3) at Washington (6) | 7:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Mets: Dillon Gee (N/A)
157.1 IP, 9.21 K/9, 2.29 B/9, .339 BABIP, 3.96 FIP (Triple-A)

Nationals: Yunesky Maya (N/A)
Only Triple-A Start (8/27): 4.2 IP, 20 TBF, 6 K, 3 BB.

Pop Quiz
Q. What can make a September game between the lowly Nats and depressing Mets palatable — nay, even exciting?
A. Two starters, each making their respective Major League debuts, is what.

Who This Dillon Gee Character Is
Short Answer: A Crafty Righty.

The Slightly Longer Answer: Gee is described in Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook as having “fringe-average stuff” with a fastball sitting at 88-90 mph and topping at 92 mph. That was before a labrum tear last season — an injury he opted to treat with rehab and not surgery. This year, Gee has been excellent, posting about seven more strikeouts than walks per nine innings.Basically, he’s having his best pro year at the highest level in which he’s pitched — which, that’s not common.

The concern for Gee, obviously, is the same for other guys with his profile (i.e. more pitchability than stuff) — namely, how his numbers translate to the majors. Is he David Hernandez? Or is he, you know, Shaun Marcum? Tune in to find out!

Another (Smarter) Country Heard From
Rob Castellano (a) has an awesome surname and (b) writes about the minor leagues for Amazin’ Avenue.

Those are the two main reasons I asked him this question via email: “In re Dillon Gee: He has that crazy K rate (and K/BB rate), but is there any indication that his stuff is different from before last year’s labrum injury?”

That’s also why he was able to give me this totally legitimate-sounding answer:

Having watched quite a few of his starts at Buffalo in addition to speaking with people from the team at various points throughout the season, his stuff is pretty much identical to what it looked like before the injury. Pretty surprising considering that based on a couple of old articles by Will Carroll, in the majority of cases the rehab-only route for major arm injuries typically subtracts a couple ticks off the fastball at the very least and at most completely sabotages any and all command, which would be devastating for Gee as he makes his bones off his pinpoint control (see: the stellar K-rates you mentioned).

Who This Yunesky Maya Character Is
Short Answer: A Cuban Defector.

The Slightly Longer Answer: The 29-year-old Maya signed a four-year, $8 million contract with Washington this summer after defecting from Cuba last September. According to Jorge Arangure Jr. of ESPN’s La Esquina blog (Insider only), Maya threw for scouts in the Dominican last December. Arangure Jr writes that “In addition to [an 88-92 mph] fastball and two-seamer, Maya threw a slider, curveball and changeup. Additionally, Maya occasionally throws a splitter.”

Maya is another reason to like the direction in which the Nats are headed. Obviously, the injury to Stephen Straburg is problematic, but Maya and Jordan Zimmermann in the rotation — along with Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa in the infield and the looming arrival of Bryce Harper — well, at least there are some pieces about which to be optimistic.

Cincinnati (7) at Colorado (6) | 8:40pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Reds: Johnny Cueto (6)
158.1 IP, 6.48 K/9, 2.73 BB/9, .287 BABIP, 41.1% GB, 8.4% HR/FB, 4.37 xFIP

Rockies: Jhoulys Chacin (7)
107.1 IP, 9.39 K/9, 4.19 BB/9, .293 BABIP, 46.6% GB, 9.0% HR/FB, 3.74 xFIP

The Reds and the Playoffs
Cincinnati’s playoff odds, per Baseball Prospectus: ca. 98%.

The Rockies and the Playoffs
Colorado’s playoff odds, per Baseball Prospectus: ca, 15%.

Aroldis Chapman’s To-Do List
I’m not at liberty to say how or from whom I acquired it, but I have in my hands a document that will certainly be of interest to the readership. The document in question? A to-do list written in the hand of Aroldis Chapman.

I don’t know the exact date of the document’s composition, but my guess is that it’s from last week some time.

Here it is (translated from the Spanish by Jorge Luis Borges):

1. Throw a baseball at, like, 103 mph.

2. Also, throw slider that’s nigh impossible for other humans to hit.

3. Use above offerings to post swinging-strike rate close to 20%.

4. Laundry.

5. Inspire awe-induced sighs at baseball stadia across the United States.

Compelling, indeed.

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode Forty-Three
In which the panel is super credentialed.

Headlines
Media Panel from last month’s Live Event.

Featuring
David Biderman, Wall Street Journal
Matthew Cerrone, Mets Blog
Will Leitch, New York Magazine
Michael Silverman, Boston Herald
Alex Speier, WEEI.com
Moderater: Jonah Keri, Ubiquitous

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop.

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

This marks the AL version of the post from earlier today, itself an attempt to catalog recently promoted players and inform the reader as to when said players might be seen.

As with that — and also yesterday’s — installment, none of what follows ought to be regarded as official prospect mavening. Bryan Smith, just yesterday, wrote two pieces about our very newest Major Leaguers. As is typical, Smith’s work offers things like “information” and “analysis” — i.e. a pair of traits far beyond the purview of the present work.

For each series, I’ve included (a) the start times of the Friday, Saturday, and Sunday games, respectively, (b) the name, age, and position of each respective call-up, (c) said call-ups’ rankings both on Marc Hulet’s top-10 and Baseball America’s top-30 preseason organizational prospect lists, (d) the players’ lines at their most recent minor league stop, and (e) any notes relevant to better enjoying said players’ promotions.

(wOBA+, or park-adjusted wOBA relative to league average, courtesy of StatCorner.)

Toronto at New York | 1:05pm, 1:05pm, 1:05pm
Blue Jays
JP Arencibia, 24, C
Hulet / BA: 4 / 2
Line: 459 PA, .301/.359/.626 (.306 BABIP), .412 wOBA, 115 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: First, before you salivate all over the numbers, consider the team batting line for the Las Vegas 51s: .295/.360/.479. That’s like a .370 wOBA, and is most assuredly the product — at least in part — of park effects. Still, as the young catcher’s wOBA+ suggests, Arencibia has provided above-average offense this year after taking a step back in 2009.

Yankees
Notes on Greg Golson available in yesterday’s edition.

Tampa Bay at Baltimore | 7:05pm, 7:05pm, 1:35pm
Rays
Rocco Baldelli, 28, Handsome Man
Hulet / BA: NR / NR
Line: 48 PA, .273/.292/.477 (.303 BABIP), .325 wOBA, 90 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: As someone on the Twitters recently noted (I forget, sorry), the Rays now have two ex-minor league coaches on their roster. And, yes, I recognize that Baldelli isn’t a prospect, but I also understand this: if you’re not excited about the Woonsocket Rocket, you’re not excited about life.

Desmond Jennings, 23, CF
Hulet / BA: 1 / 1
Line: 458 PA, .278/.362/.393 (.327 BABIP), .355 wOBA, 105 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: The idea is that he’s Carl Crawford, Part Deux. He definitely seems to have the “running fast” part down: Jennings was 37-for-41 on stolen base attempts at Durham before his promotion. TotalZone, per Sean’s Smith Baseball Projection, has him as a +4 fielder in center, which means he could be something like +10 to +15 fielder in left. Crawford, meanwhile, has +15.8 UZR/150 in left for his career.

Orioles
Notes on Brandon Snyder in yesterday’s edition.

Chicago at Boston | 7:10pm, 7:10pm, 1:35pm
White Sox
Tyler Flowers, 24, C
Hulet / BA: 1 / 2
Line: 412 PA, .220/.334/.434 (.283 BABIP), .339 wOBA, 100 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: A.J. Pierzynski‘s contract runs out after 2010, and Flowers is likely to replace him. Reports on his defense seem conflicting, but he seems rather adept at absolutely crushing the ball, posting ISOs of around .200 or greater throughout the minors.

Gregory Infante, 23, RHP
Hulet / BA: 9 / NR
Line: 26.1 IP, 11.62 K/9, 4.10 BB/9, 2.10 FIP (Double-A)
Notes: Dan Santaromita over at Future Sox has aggregated a couple scouting reports on Infante, saying that he (i.e. Infante, not Santaromita) throws an 94-98 mph fastball and demonstrates flashes of talent. Will probably be a member of Sox’ bullpen next year, where he’ll almost definitely drag down the collective BMI of Chicago’s relief corps.

Red Sox
None.

Texas at Minnesota | 8:10pm, 4:10pm, 2:10pm
Rangers
None. (Unless maybe you count Pedro Strop. But I’m not doing that.)

Twins
None.

Detroit at Kansas City | 8:10pm, 7:10pm, 2:10pm
Tigers
Notes on 30-year-old catcher Max St. Pierre in yesterday’s edition.

Royals
Lucas May, 25, C
Hulet / BA: NR / 17 (in Dodgers’ system)
Line: 285 PA, .296/.352/.496 (.347 BABIP), .369 wOBA, 99 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Hey, this guy’s interesting. The Dodgers converted him from shortstop to outfield to catcher — then traded him to KC in July as part of the Scott Podsednik deal. Those numbers there are from his spell in Las Vegas. He actually performed even better (.275/.362/.516) at Triple-A Omaha with a lower BABIP (.294) and higher wOBA+ (119). With Kendall out, he’ll probably split time with Brayan Pena, which probably gives the Royals the coolest catching duo in the majors.

Los Angeles at Oakland | 10:05pm, 4:10pm, 4:05pm
Angels
None.

Athletics
Notes on relief pitcher Justin James in yesterday’s edition.

Cleveland at Seattle | 10:10pm, 10:15pm, 4:10pm
Indians
None.

Mariners
None.

This edition of One Night Only continues what yesterday’s started — namely, as an attempt to catalog recently promoted players and inform the reader as to when said players might be seen.

As with yesterday’s installment, none of what follows ought to be regarded as official prospect mavening. Bryan Smith, just yesterday, wrote two pieces about our very newest Major Leaguers. As is typical, Smith’s work offers things like “information” and “analysis” — i.e. a pair of traits far beyond the purview of the present work.

Unlike yesterday’s post, this one previews not only a single night of games, but a long-weekend’s worth. For that reason, the reader will see three times listed after each match-up. These are the games times for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, respectively.

For each series, I’ve included (a) the name, age, and position of each respective call-up, (b) said call-ups’ rankings both on Marc Hulet’s top-10 and Baseball America’s top-30 preseason organizational prospect lists, (c) the players’ lines at their most recent minor league stop, and (d) any notes relevant to better enjoying said players’ promotions.

An American League edition will appear in these pages around the noon hour today.

(wOBA+, or park-adjusted wOBA relative to league average, courtesy of StatCorner.)

New York at Chicago | 2:20pm, 1:05pm, 2:20pm
Mets
Mike Nickeas, 27, C
Hulet / BA: NR / NR
Line: 318 PA, .283/.403/.396 (.323 BABIP), .372 wOBA, 112 wOBA+ (Double-A)
Notes: Nickeas is technically getting called up from Triple-A Buffalo, but only had 26 PAs there. And though I’m sure he’s one of the nicest guys around, he very probably won’t end up on Kris Liakos’ list of the best Greek baseball players.

Notes on Lucas Duda available in yesterday’s edition.

Cubs
None.

Washington at Pittsburgh | 7:05pm, 7:05pm, 1:35pm
Nationals
Daniel Espinosa, 23, SS/2B
Hulet / BA: 4 / 5
Line: 108 PA, .295/.349/.463 (.338 BABIP), .345 wOBA, 104 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Bryan Smith discussed Espinosa in these pages yesterday, suggesting that Espinosa would likely move to second base, with Ian Desmond sticking at short. Hulet’s preseason write-up of him includes the line, “Taking to the wood… has been good for Espinosa.” If you’re a male with an emotional age of 22 or under, that’s probably pretty hilarious.

Pirates
None.

Milwaukee at Philadelphia | 7:05pm, 7:05pm, 1:35pm
Brewers
Jeremy Jeffress, 22, RHP
Hulet / BA: NR / 21
Line: 14.1 IP, 9.42 K/9, 1.26 BB/9, 1.73 FIP (Triple-A)
Notes: As Smith noted yesterday, Jeffress has received two drug-related suspensions. The latter of those, 100 days, lasted till June of this year, which is the reason he’s only thrown 32.1 innings this season. Wisconsiner Jack Moore is excited about Jeffress’s velo, and so can you be.

Phillies
None.

Atlanta at Florida | 7:10pm, 7:10pm, 12:10pm
Braves
Notes on J.C. Boscan and Freddie Freeman available in yesterday’s edition.

Marlins
Chris Hatcher, 25, C
Hulet / BA: NR / NR
Line: 293 PA, .202/.261/.277 (.293 BABIP), .251 wOBA, 81 wOBA+ (Double-A)
Notes: Not entirely sure what his defensive reputation is, but I’m guessing it’s good, as his offensive numbers are pretty mediocre.

Cincinnati at St. Louis | 8:15pm, 4:10pm, 2:15pm
Reds
Yonder Alonso, 23, 1B/LF
Hulet / BA: 1 / 2
Line: 445 PA, .296/.355/.470 (.339 BABIP), .365 wOBA, 108 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Has been rated 35th and 45th the last two years, respectively, on Baseball America’s top-100 prospect list. Hulet rated him 47th overall this past March. When asked if he’d still rank Alonso in the same spot, Hulet responded, “Alonso’s value is down but not massively… He’s probably still a top-100 guy.”

Notes on Aroldis Chapman available in every single place on the internet.

Cardinals
None.

Houston at Arizona | 9:40pm, 8:10pm, 4:10pm
Astros
Brian Bogusevic, 26, OF
Hulet / BA: NR / 21
Line: 575 PA, .277/.364/.414 (.329 BABIP), .359 wOBA, 103 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Awesome. Bogusevic was originally drafted as a left-handed pitcher with the 24th-overall pick in the 2005 draft. Unfortunately, he kinda bit. Luckily, he was also a good hitter in college (at Tulane) and so, in July of 2008, moved to the outfield. Survey says he may not be so bad there. His contact rate is slightly up from last season and he’s 23-of-24 on stolen base attempts.

Henry Villar, 23, RHP
Hulet / BA: NR / 27
Line: 102.0 IP, 6.00 K/9, 3.71 BB/9, 4.56 FIP (Double-A)
Notes: Villar has split time between starting and relieving this year. Per StatCorner, he’s had groundball rates in the 47%-50% area. Would have to cut walks to make rotation, likely, as he doesn’t feature swing-and-miss stuff.

Diamondbacks
None. (Although, yesterday, Bryan Smith discussed the recently recalled Brandon Allen a little bit. Allen had 116 PA last year. Additionally, he murdercated a Luke Gregerson offering two nights ago, and made a nice catch, too. Highlights of both available by clicking here.)

Colorado at San Diego | 10:05pm, 4:10pm, 4:05pm
Rockies
Notes on Christopher Nelson available in yesterday’s edition.

Padres
Cory Luebke, 25, LHP
Hulet / BA: 7 / 6
Line: 57.2 IP, 6.87 K/9, 2.65 BB/9, 3.91 FIP (Triple-A)
Notes: Luebke will actually start tonight’s (Friday’s) game. He also pitched 56.1 IP at Double-A San Antonio this year, posting a 2.84 FIP. Is distant relative of Officer Krupke from West Side Story. No joke.

San Francisco at Los Angeles | 10:10pm, 10:10pm, 8:05pm
Giants
Darren Ford, 24, CF
Hulet / BA: NR / 13
Line: 516 PA, .251/.315/.365 (.314 BABIP), .313 wOBA, 97 wOBA+ (Double-A)
Notes: Was 37-of-52 on stolen base opportunities at Richmond (home of the Flying Squirrels). Also, this is interesting, per BA’s Prospect Handbook: apparently, the Giants tried to turn Ford into a switch-hitter, beginning two falls ago. Apparently, they stopped the experiment last summer.

Dodgers
None.

As smarter fans everywhere will already know, yesterday marked the beginning of the season of Roster Expansion on the MLB calendar.

With that in mind, this edition of One Night Only seeks to prepare the reader for which recently promoted players (with little or no MLB service time) he (or she) might see in tonight’s respective games.

Note, please, that none of what follows ought to be regarded as official prospect mavening. Undoubtedly, at some point, either Marc Hulet or Bryan Smith will address the relative worth of one or more of the players treated here. Rather, allow this to serve merely as a brief catalog of players you might see in action this evening.

For each game, I’ve included (a) the name, age, and position of the recent call-up, (b) said call-up’s ranking both on Marc Hulet’s top-10 and Baseball America’s top-30 preseason organizational prospect lists, (c) the player’s line at his most recent minor league stop, and (d) any notes relevant to better enjoying said player’s promotion.

(wOBA+, or park-adjusted wOBA relative to league average, courtesy of StatCorner.)

New York Nationals at Atlanta | 7:10pm ET
Mets
Lucas Duda, 24, LF/1B
Hulet / BA: NR / NR
Line: 290 PA, .314/.389/.610 (.346 BABIP), .424 wOBA, 124 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Has the best league- and park-adjusted numbers on this list. Distinguishes himself, as well, by specifically not being Jeff Francoeur.

Braves
J.C. Boscan, 30, C
Hulet / BA: NR / NR
Line: 248 PA, .250/.324/.368 (.305 BABIP), .314 wOBA, 94 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Has been in the minors for longer than Jackie Moore’s been alive.

Freddie Freeman, 20, 1B
Hulet / BA: 2 / 2
Line: 519 PA, .319/.378/.518 (.351 BABIP), .387 wOBA, 117 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Most highly rated player on this list. With that name he’s got, could definitely start a smooth jazz band if baseball doesn’t work out.

Philadelphia at Colorado | 7:10pm ET
Phillies
None.

Rockies
Christopher Nelson, 24, SS/2B
Hulet / BA: NR / 29
Line: 356 PA, .317/.379/.498 (.348 BABIP), .384 wOBA, 107 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Actually had like 6 PAs back in mid-June. Total Zone doesn’t appear to like his defense. Turns out, was not lead singer of hair band Nelson.

Oakland at New York Americans | 1:05pm ET
Athletics
Justin James, 28, RHP
Hulet / BA: NR / NR
Line: 19.2 IP, 12.81 K/9, 4.12 BB/9, 1.88 FIP (Triple-A)
Notes: He appears to induce ground balls at a fairly steady pace, too. Could be interesting to watch.

Yankees
Greg Golson, 24, CF/RF
Hulet / BA: NR / NR
Line: 455 PA, .265/.316/.417 (.324 BABIP), .328 wOBA, 97 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Golson actually has 12 career major league PAs. Is 17-for-21 stealng this year.

Boston at Baltimore | 7:05pm ET
Red Sox
None.

Orioles
Brandon Snyder, 23, 1B
Hulet / BA: 6 / 6
Line: 376 PA, .257/.324/.407 (.338 BABIP), .326 wOBA, 103 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Was originally a catcher. Hit .343/.421/.597 (.396 BABIP) with a 128 wOBA+ last year at Double-A.

Detroit at Minnesota | 8:10pm ET
Tigers
Max St. Pierre, 30, C
Hulet / BA: NR / NR
Line: 147 PA, .300/.356/.469 (.318 BABIP), .356 wOBA, 108 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Has a shockingly similar profile to Boscan (above). Is from Quebec.

Twins
None.

Cleveland at Seattle | 10:10pm ET
Indians
None.

Mariners
None.

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

Read the rest of this entry »

If FanGraphs has a football-oriented kindred spirit around this great and wild series of tubes called the internet, it’s almost definitely Brian Burke’s Advanced NFL Stats. Just as we strive to do here, Burke makes it his bidness to ask the smartest questions he can think of and (generally) uses quantitative analysis to answer them. Also, as we do here, Burke carries a number of stats that you’re not gonna find elsewhere.

Finally, as with FanGraphs, green is integral to his site’s color palette. So, yeah.

So it was that, when FanGraphs’ own Zach Sanders assembled a cast of sabermetric types via a simple Twitter message (pictured below) I wrote to Mr. Burke and asked what might be a way to construct a league so’s to remove — as much as is possible — the effects of team context and randomness (i.e. practices common in the quantitative analysis of baseball).

Because he’s a kind person and sympathetic those less fortunate than him, Burke responded quickly. You can read the entirety of his reply (and more!) over at his site, but if you’re the sort to look for the bottom line, here’s a fair summary: turnovers, special teams, and touchdowns are the most random things in the NFL; stick with yardage as much as possible.

In any case, I assume at least some of our readers participate in fantasy football, and that some of those people have as yet to participate in the last of their NFL fantasy drafts.

That being the case, I’ve reproduced below the scoring system we’ll be using in what Sanders has subbed the This Ain’t Baseball League. Essentially, it’s a hybrid of the more traditional fantasy scoring with which you’re already likely familiar and then the yard-heavy approach endorsed by Burke.

The positions we’re using are as follows: QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, W/R/T, W/R/T, DEF, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN.

The draft was last Thursday, and I believe you’ll be able to view the results of said draft — plus other league information — by clicking here. [Update: Nevermind. Apparently, that doesn’t work. Yeesh.]

Now, for the scoring (including the Yahoo default settings for the sake of comparison):

Those are the offensive ones. Here are the defensive:

This edition of One Night Only knows which side its bread is buttered on.

(Games listed in order of likely awesomness. NERD scores in parentheses.)

Chicago Americans (5) at Cleveland (3) | 7:05 ET
Starting Pitchers
White Sox: Edwin Jackson (8)
162.1 IP, 7.65 K/9, 3.71 BB/9, .318 BABIP, 51.8% GB, 10.2% HR/FB, 3.97 xFIP

Indians: Justin Masterson (6)
151.1 IP, 6.78 K/9, 4.10 BB/9, .341 BABIP, 60.7% GB, 11.0% HR/FB, 4.23 xFIP

Manny Being Manny Traded via Waivers
Let’s be clear about one thing, America: this game is miles more interesting if newly acquired Manny Ramirez is playing in it. And let’s be clear about another thing, America: NERD doesn’t really have a way of accounting for this.

Or, at least not yet.

Maybe — how about this — maybe a game becomes an automatic 10 when one of the most talented, yet enigmatic, players of his era joins a team just on the fringe of playoff contention — a team that, for the entire season, has slotted a no-hit journeyman into the DH spot and also features a mouthy Latin whack job for a manager.

Cool?

Out of Left Field. Literally. Kind Of.
Though it’s become commonplace to say that the White Sox have effed themselves by fielding* Mark Kotsay at DH — and while, yes, Mark Kotsay, isn’t a good DH — it’s actually not the position at which they’ve failed hardest. Because, while Chicago’s DHs have posted a 92 OPS+ relative to the league average DH, the team’s left fielders (ahem, Juan Pierre) have posted only an 83 OPS+ relative to other left fielders. No, OPS+ isn’t perfect, and, yes, maybe Pierre picks up some overall runs via stolen bases and such. But it’s still bad, people.

Action, Jackson
Edwin Jackson, in case you didn’t know, has been good since joining the White Sox. Like, disgusting-good. Blam, line: 28.0 IP, 10.93 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 58.9% GB, 2.55 xFIP, 1.1 WAR. And he’s got 21 Ks over his last two starts.

*Not the precise word, obviously, but what’s better? Batting? Deploying?

Colorado (6) at San Francisco (4) | 10:15pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Rockies: Esmil Rogers (9)
49.1 IP, 8.21 K/9, 3.10 BB/9, .393 BABIP, 48.1% GB, 6.5% HR/FB, 3.71 xFIP

Giants: Madison Bumgarner (7)
73.0 IP, 6.41 K/9, 2.34 BB/9, .322 BABIP, 44.8% GB, 10.9% HR/FB, 4.30 xFIP

Regression Alert
Esmil Rogers has exploded to the top of the NERD charts recently. Why’s he there? Let me count the ways.

1. Bad Luck. Despite an ERA of 5.66, Rogers is actually currently sporting only a 3.71 xFIP. Rocky pitchers will always have inflated-looking BABIPs — Coors has a BABIP about 20 points higher than league average — but his current number is far above what it ought to be.

2. Velocity. Rogers’ fastball is currently averaging 94.3 mph overall (and 93.7 mph as a starter). That’s faster than fastballs belonging to a whole bunch of guys typically classified as power pitchers, guys such as Josh Beckett, Mat Latos, Francisco Liriano, Brandon Morrow, and CC Sabathia.

3. Age. Rogers only just turned 25, which means he’s been 24 for the majority of the season, which means he’s on the youngish side of things. Also, besides a four-inning start last season, it’s his first real season in the majors.

Andres Torres Watch
Last Night (v Colorado): 4 PA, 2 K.

Entering Playing: .284/.366/.498 (.351 BABIP), .379 wOBA, 138 wRC+, 5.7 WAR (8th among hitters).

Andres Torres Watch (Totally Subjective Remix)
Andres Torres remains talented and handsome. I want him to be my power animal.

A Brief Critique of Dave Cameron
About two weeks ago, to celebrate the arrival of 2010 minor league stats to the site, our Full-Time Employee Dave Cameron wrote a brief article singing the praises of Luis Rodriguez, who, after years of serving as a sort of Quad-A utility infielder, is having a crazy season. To quote Cameron:

In 354 plate appearances, Rodriguez is hitting .296/.360/.502. That is not a typo – the diminutive middle infielder is outslugging Jesus Montero. A guy who has slapped the ball on the ground for most of his career, he’s already launched 15 home runs in the International League, and 31 of his 90 hits have gone for extra bases. He’s done this while maintaining his excellent bat control, as he again has more walks (34) than strikeouts (30).

Because I’m a human person, this story warms the cockles of my heart. Moreover, I celebrate our generally unassailable Editor for calling attention to Rodriguez’s achievement.

However, I do take umbrage at one of Cameron’s maneuvers, and it’s this: in a moment of poor judgment, Cameron opted to title his post “The Next Andres Torres?” Because it’s phrased as a question, I’ll provide the answer here post-haste:

No.

“Oh, but Carson,” maybe you’re saying, “Torres was also a career minor league who also improved considerably during what would otherwise be considered the end of his peak years.” To this I reply: “Sure, but is Luis Rodriguez anywhere near as handsome as Andres Torres?” Let’s check.

Conclusion: no way, friend.

Milwaukee (8) at Cincinnati (7) | 7:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Brewers: Yovani Gallardo (8)
149.0 IP, 9.97 K/9, 3.74 BB/9, .338 BABIP, 43.3% GB, 6.8% HR/FB, 3.42 xFIP

Reds: Aaron Harang (5)
100.1 IP, 6.73 K.9, 2.51 BB.9, .331 BABIP, 37.7% GB, 11.5% HR/FB, 4.33 xFIP

Just One Brief Note
This game marks the return of Aaron Harang from the DL. That’s what we in the industry refer to as “need to know” information.

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

Read the rest of this entry »

This edition of One Night Only contains a semi-lengthy consideration of a fringe major leaguer.

In other words: P-A-R-T-Y.

(NERD scores in parentheses.)

New York Nationals (3) at Atlanta (5) | 7:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Metropolitans: Pat Misch (10?)
18.0 IP, 3.50 K/9, 1.00 BB/9, .314 BABIP, 46.3% GB, 4.0% HR/FB, 4.55 xFIP

Braves: Jair Jurrjens (5)
95.0 IP, 6.25 K/9, 2.94 BB/9, .291 BABIP, 39.6% GB, 7.3% HR/FB, 4.52 xFIP

Pat Misch, Pat Misch Is on My List
You’ll notice, if you look down below at the full schedule of today’s games, that I gave Met starter Pat Misch an estimated NERD of only 6. At the time, I thought I was being liberal even with that assignation: Misch isn’t exactly what you’d call a “stuff” guy (currently sporting, for example, an average fastball velocity of 85.4 mph) and appears, at first glance, to be a serious candidate for the Quad-A (or just straight-up Triple-A) label.

Thing is, Misch does one thing really well, and that’s throw strikes. His strike rate of 66.5% through his first three starts would tie him for 11th place in that category — with Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton — of the 205 NERD-qualified starters. Nor does it mark a serious departure from his minor league numbers, which generally have him throwing strikes at about a 65% rate.

His strike-throwing profile is borne out in his line so far, which includes a 3.50 K/9 and 1.00 BB/9. In other words, he’s pitching to contact pretty seriously. And when a pitcher is conceding so much contact, the logical question to ask is, “What’s his groundball rate?” If it’s high, you’re probably talking about a serviceable (and, for now, cost-controlled) major league pitcher; if it’s low, you’re talking about John Wasdin, who’s called Way Back Wasdin not for nothing.

So, what’s Misch’s groundball rate?

Well, there are a couple-few answers to that. Like this one: “Through 174 major league innings, it’s 43.3%.” Or, like this other one: “Through 705.1 minor league innings, it’s 47.2%.” Thing is, we ought to be most interested in a third answer — i.e. what it’s likely to be going forward.

Because Misch has a considerably larger minor league resume, it’d be ideal to project his major league rates using at least some of his minor league data. Unfortunately, it’s not so easy as looking at major league equivalencies.

The Evolution of Groundball Rates
A couple weeks ago, Resident Prospect Maven Bryan Smith wrote an article all up in this piece called “The Evolution of Groundball Rates,” in which Smith looks at 18 current major leaguers and the differences between their minor and major league groundball rates.

After listing both sets of rates, Smith gives us this:

[It’s] interesting that half the players dropped their groundball rate between 3 and 7.5 percent between the minor and Major leagues. Those who attended FanGraphs Live heard the problems I have with using MLEs to project minor leaguers. While it would be easy to do this study with everyone in the MinorLeagueSplits era, create an average drop that we apply for everyone, I just don’t find it all that informative. If you want to assume a player drops about 5-5.5 percent when he reaches the Majors, you’ll probably be about right as often as you’re about wrong.

Essentially, what we learn from Smith — and he presents the numbers in that article if you wanna see — is that groundball rates don’t translate perfectly from the minors to the majors.

In other words, if we’re going to project Misch, it’ll require something more nuanced than just MLEs. It’ll require, ultimately, human input.

The Horse’s Mouth
On account of Bryan Smith is basically just sitting by his computer all the time, thinking about this exact subject, I decided to go ahead and ask him what’s the deal with Misch. Specifically, I asked this:

I’m curious as to how you view Pat Misch. In particular, I’m wondering how he might fit into the different categories you discussed in your piece on the evolution of groundball rates.

Per his Minor League Splits page, he appears to’ve settled in the high-40s and low-50s at the Triple-A level. At the same time, he’s working with only an 85-87 mph fastball.

Who’re his comps, you think?

And, specfically, this is what Smith replied:

One thing that doesn’t receive enough attention when thinking about groundball rates is command. I think most are guilty of assuming that GB% is correlated strictly with movement — the sinker with the most downward movement should yield the highest number of groundballs. But this isn’t the case, and it’s important to remember that commanding a pitch down in the zone is half (or more) of the battle. Misch’s stuff — both in terms of velocity and movement — aren’t special in the slightest, and he doesn’t have the unique build (and downward plane) of a guy like Doug Fister. But what they do share is amazing command, and there is significant value in that. I don’t think Misch will be able to sustain a 50% groundball rate, but I think his ability to spot his fastball below the belt will keep him on the better side of average going forward.

The Outlook on Misch
I’m not sure that Pat Misch is gonna ever be a world-beater of a starter. He strikes out very few batters, and that’s not the best of qualities for a major league pitcher to possess.

But he also seems to have the stuff to not walk batters and, within, reason to induce grounders at an above-average rate.

If I Had My Druthers
• Jair Jurrjens, a native of Curacao (in the Netherlands Antilles), would begin referring to his fastball as “The Dutch Oven” — owing, you know, to the heat that it provided.
• It would become such a fabulous pitch that announcers are absolutely forced to reference it, by name, on the air.
• I, along with droves of American teenagers, would L my A off.

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode Forty-Two
In which the panel is sooo super relaxed, OMG.

Headlines
Stephen Strasburg: Arms and the Man
Manny Ramirez in the Windiest of Cities
September Call-Ups: The Whos and Whens and Stuff
… and other fresh-faced ideas!

Featuring
Dave Cameron, Full-Time Employee
Matt Klaassen, Generally Useful Guy
Bryan Smith, Resident Prospect Maven

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop.

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

What you’re getting here is two games for each of the next three days. It’s all part of FanGraphs’ “commitment to service.”

(Games listed by day and in order of likely awesomeness. NERD scores in parentheses.)

Friday, August 27th
Philadelphia (3) at San Diego (10), 10:05pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Roy Oswalt (9) and Mat Latos (10). One of them’s likely to play left field at some point tonight. So, heads up on that, is what I’m saying.
• At the team level, the Phillies are currently undervalued by NERD, on account of the injury situation (and subsequent returns). Second baseman Chase Utley remains both handsome and talented, however.
• You should take note of Padre Chris Denorfia, who’s not only slashing 289/.354/.483, and not only an alumnus of Choate, but whose family settled in Bristol, Connecticut — i.e. the American city with the highest density of Cistullis per capita.*

*It occurs to me that this may interest you zero percentedly, but maybe you can at least benefit from some of that vicarious joy.

Boston (7) at Tampa Bay (10), 7:05pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Jon Lester (7) and David Price (10), both of whom are so competent as to almost entirely lose my interest.
• At the team level, the Rays are currently the best baserunning team in the majors — at least by NERD’s rigorous standards.
• You should take note of the radio broadcast from the Boston side — especially if you want to hear exactly one thousand local auto glass commercials.

Saturday, August 28th
Arizona (9) at San Francisco (4), 9:05pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Dan Hudson (9) and Matt Cain (6). Hudson, only 23, is sporting a 8.84 K/9 against only a 1.47 BB/9 through his first five Diamondback starts. For all their questionable maneuvers of late, this move appears not to be one of them.
• At the team level, the Giants have recently distinguished themselves: with the acquistion earlier this week of Cody Ross, they become one of the few teams in major league history to feature a roster composed entirely of outfielders.
• You should take note of Andres Torres, who is threatening Chase Utely in terms of the old handsome/talented combo deal. (Torres’ line this season: 480 PA, .287/.368/.501, .352 BABIP, .382 wOBA, 140 wRC+, 5.7 WAR.)

Pittsburgh (6) at Milwaukee (8), 7:10pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Zach Duke (5) and Chris Capuano (???). I originally gave Capuano an estimated NERD of 1 (see the full daily schedules down below), but, at second glance, that’s probably way unfair. Not only is Capuano sporting a 3.52 xFIP, but he’s also clawed his way back into the rotation after undergoing two consecutive Tommy John procedures. Feel that, America? That’s your heart being warmed.
• At the team level, the Brewers are currently fourth in all of baseball at 69.0 park-adjusted runs above average on the season — trailing only the Yankees, Twins, and Red Sox. Of the 596 runs they’ve scored this year only like 517 of them were scored against the Pirates.
• You should take note of Lorenzo Cain if and when he appears in this game. I’m led to believe that he only started playing baseball in high school. Also — and perhaps related — he kinda runs like a giant, incredibly fast puppy.

Sunday, August 29th
New York Americans (6) at Chicago Americans (5), 2:05pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Ivan Nova (7*) and Gavin Floyd (7). The former of those guys, Nova, made his first career start on Monday. He was was efficient — 5.1 IP, 22 TBF, 3 K, 1 BB, 9 GB on 18 BIP (50%) — if not overpowering, but he’s noteworthy for another reason, which is that he features a change-up with rather startling movement. While his fastball sits around 94-95 mph, he throws his changepiece pretty close to that in terms of velocity — around 87 mph. But while (per Texas Leaguers) the average major league change-up features about 6.5 inches of armside run (i.e. toward a righthanded batter), Nova’s change moves over 10 inches. And it’s pretty obvious even while watching the game on a netbook.
• How about instead of discussing either club on a team level, we just pop up some poppycorn and watch this video of Nova’s first start.
• You should take note of around the 0:27 mark in that same video, where Nova throws a 97 mph fastball by Adam Lind.

Houston (0) at New York Nationals (3), 1:10pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Bud Norris (9) and R.A. Dickey (10). That’s not actually the NERD score that Dickey would receive by the current formula, but a number of readers lobbied on his behalf and I totally completely wanted them to stop doing that.
• At the team level, one nice thing you can say about the Mets is that they’re not the Astros. Seriously, the only thing the Astros do well is steal oftener than average — which, that’s not really a skill, per se.
• You should take note of how the Astros replaced their old-ish and mostly chunky first baseman with a much younger, but still equally chunky, first baseman.

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

(Note: I don’t know how Hammel got listed as a 1. Ignore that. But also, probably don’t watch that game, either.)

Read the rest of this entry »