Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
St. Louis at Colorado| 15:10 ET
Weaver (33.2 IP, 70 xFIP-) vs. Marquez (5.1 IP, 118 xFIP-)
In Marcel Proust biopic Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome, a frenzied crowd chants “two men enter, one man leaves” before a gladiatorial duel that pits Mel Gibson against a developmentally disabled giant. Following wins by San Francisco and St. Louis last night — plus a loss by the Mets — the current National League wild-card situation bears some similarity to that post-apocalyptic mise-en-scène. Except, instead of perspiring Australians, the competitors are the three aforementioned clubs. And instead of two of them, there’s three. And also Tina Turner’s not there.

Here are the current standings and probabilities per this site’s methodology:

Less urgent but still notable is the pitching matchup here. St. Louis right-hander Luke Weaver has produced the highest strikeout rate (tied with Rich Hill) among all starters to record 20 or more innings over the last month. German Marquez, meanwhile, is scheduled to make his first major-league start. Owner of a plus fastball, he produced decidedly above-average strikeout and walk numbers as just a 21-year-old in the high minors.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: St. Louis Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at Baltimore | 19:05 ET
Rodriguez (90.1 IP, 119 xFIP-) vs. Gausman (160.0 IP, 87 xFIP-)
Despite Boston’s win over Baltimore last night, this series remains the most relevant where postseason implications are concerned. The Red Sox possess the lowest probability of winning their division among the league’s six divisional leaders. The Orioles, meanwhile, have nearly even odds of qualifying for the wild card or not doing that. With regard to Kevin Gausman, here’s something not entirely irrelevant, either: over the last 30 days, he’s recorded the third-highest WAR among major-league pitchers — the sort calculated with FIP — and the second-highest WAR as calculated with runs allowed. This has all been information.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Baltimore Television.

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at Baltimore | 19:05 ET
Porcello (201.2 IP, 91 xFIP-) vs. Bundy (99.2 IP, 108 xFIP-)
The AL East has been — and will remain for most of today, at least — the most tightly contested division in the majors. Here one finds two of the three principal characters in that race, Boston and Baltimore. In conclusion, this has been a brief, nearly unnecessary paragraph.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Baltimore Television.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
St. Louis at San Francisco | 16:05 ET
Reyes (28.0 IP, 95 xFIP-) vs. Suarez (75.0 IP, 109 xFIP-)
St. Louis’s wild-card odds have declined by nearly 20 points since Thursday, an interval which accounts for the first three games of their series against San Francisco in the latter’s ballpark. The results could have been worse: had they not won last night, the loss in wild-card probability would likely have amounted to roughly 30 points.

Regard:

The endeavor has become more difficult in the meantime, as well, with the recent success of the Mets — rendering a win today even more consequential.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Francisco Radio or Television.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Boston | 13:05 ET
Mitchell (7.1 IP, 99 xFIP-) vs. Price (205.2 IP, 79 xFIP-)
Two days ago, with a Cy Young candidate in Masahiro Tanaka scheduled to face the struggling Eduardo Rodriguez, it seemed reasonable to think that the Yankees had some cause for optimism with regard to the short-term fate of their postseason odds. A ninth-inning loss on Thursday, however — followed by a more pedestrian sort of defeat last night — has rendered their improbable claim to the division something more like impossible.

Nor is the prognosis for this afternoon particularly good for New York: the Red Sox feature nearly a 70% probability of winning that contest according to this site’s methodology.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 682
Dave Cameron is the managing editor of FanGraphs. Jeff Sullivan is a senior editor at that same site. They both appear on this edition of FanGraphs Audio, live on tape from a weird hotel in Colorado or something.

This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 51 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
St. Louis at San Francisco | 22:15 ET
Weaver (31.0 IP, 67 xFIP-) vs. Moore (176.2 IP, 110 xFIP-)
While members of different divisions, the Cardinals and Giants are very much involved in a zero-sum game (or nearly zero-sum game) at the moment where the 2016 postseason is concerned. Owing to a Mets club that has insisted on winning more than its fair share of games, there’s a distinct probability that only one of St. Louis and San Francisco will qualify for a wild-card spot. The Giants are the more likely of those two at this point according to the numbers. But, as a member of your local zoo-crew radio team might say, “Numbers ain’t nothin’ but a… number, I guess. Uh. Here’s the latest traffic report.” Toilet-flush sound effect. “Kapowie!” sound effect. Local auto-body commercial.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Francisco Radio or Television.

Read the rest of this entry »

Introduction
The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise (introduced a few years ago) conducted by the author with a view to identifying and monitoring the most compelling of those rookie-eligible minor leaguers who both (a) received a future value grade of 45 or less from Dan Farnsworth during the course of his organizational lists and also (b) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, and John Sickels — and their attendant midseason lists, as well. Every week during the minor-league season, the author submitted the names of five “compelling” minor leaguers, each name attended by a brief summary of that prospect’s most relevant credentials.

Generally speaking, compelling in this context meant that the prospect in question possessed some combination of the following:

1. Promising statistical indicators; and

2. The ability to play on the more challenging end of the defensive spectrum; and

3. Youth relative to minor-league level; and

4. A curious biographical or statistical profile.

With minor-league regular seasons having all been completed, the author presents here a summary and discussion of the Fringe Five for 2016.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Boston | 19:10 ET
Tanaka (186.2 IP, 82 xFIP-) vs. Rodriguez (88.0 IP, 115 xFIP-)
On the one hand, one finds that Boston currently possesses over a 60% probability of winning the AL East; New York, about just a 1% probability. Looking over into the other, second hand, however, what one also finds is that the Yankees (a) currently trail the Red Sox by just four games, (b) begin a four-game series against that exact Red Sox club today, and (c) appear to have the benefit of a favorable pitching matchup tonight. Owing both to their offense and home-field advantage, Boston still possesses a slight advantage in terms of the single-game winning projection for tonight’s encounter. It wouldn’t be particularly surprising for the gap between the clubs to shrink to just three games before tomorrow, however.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »