NERD Game Scores for September 18, 2016
Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.
Most Highly Rated Game
St. Louis at San Francisco | 16:05 ET
Reyes (28.0 IP, 95 xFIP-) vs. Suarez (75.0 IP, 109 xFIP-)
St. Louis’s wild-card odds have declined by nearly 20 points since Thursday, an interval which accounts for the first three games of their series against San Francisco in the latter’s ballpark. The results could have been worse: had they not won last night, the loss in wild-card probability would likely have amounted to roughly 30 points.
Regard:
Event | STL WC% | Change | SFG WC% | Change |
Before Series | 52.1% | — | 67.3% | — |
After Game 1 | 43.3% | -8.8 | 72.4% | +5.1 |
After Game 2 | 28.1% | -15.2 | 79.6% | +7.2 |
After Game 3 | 34.3% | +6.2 | 74.7% | -4.9 |
Total | — | -17.8 | — | +7.4 |
The endeavor has become more difficult in the meantime, as well, with the recent success of the Mets — rendering a win today even more consequential.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Francisco Radio or Television.
One Other Brief Note
Today’s Free Game
Today’s free game features Minnesota at New York NL, starts at 13:10 ET, and can be accessed by means of this hyperlinked text.
Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and very sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and also the rest of the internet. Note that calculations both for team and game NERD scores feature adjustment for postseason odds that increases as season progresses. Read more about those adjustments here and here.
Away | SP | TM | GM | TM | SP | Home | Time | ||
Daniel Norris | DET | 8 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | CLE | Trevor Bauer | 13:10 |
Kyle Gibson | MIN | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | NYN | Gabriel Ynoa* | 13:10 |
Ivan Nova | PIT | 7 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | CIN | Dan Straily | 13:10 |
Andrew Cashner | MIA | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | PHI | Alec Asher | 13:35 |
Jake Odorizzi | TB | 5 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 7 | BAL | Wade Miley | 13:35 |
Joe Ross | WAS | 7 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | ATL | Matt Wisler | 13:35 |
Jose Quintana | CHA | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 8 | KC | Danny Duffy | 14:15 |
Wily Peralta | MIL | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 8 | CHN | Kyle Hendricks | 14:20 |
Ross Detwiler | OAK | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | TEX | Colby Lewis | 15:05 |
Marcus Stroman | TOR | 10 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 6 | LAA | Alex Meyer* | 15:35 |
Alex Reyes | STL | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 4 | SF | Albert Suarez | 16:05 |
Doug Fister | HOU | 3 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | SEA | Ariel Miranda | 16:10 |
Jose De Leon | LAN | 8 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 10 | AZ | Robbie Ray | 16:10 |
Jarred Cosart | SD | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | COL | Chad Bettis | 16:10 |
CC Sabathia | NYA | 4 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 6 | BOS | Drew Pomeranz | 20:08 |
TM denotes team score.
GM denotes overall game score.
Highlighted portion denotes game of the day.
* = Fewer than 10 IP, NERD at discretion of clueless author.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.