In January of this year, the author of this post, following some statistical perambulations, arrived at the conclusion that Max Schrock, a 13th-round selection out of the University of South Carolina during the most recent (2015) draft, would someday win an MVP award. The basis for that conclusion: no SEC batter in 2015 had produced numbers more similar to Josh Donaldson’s — during Donaldson’s own final year as a collegiate player (also in the SEC) — than Schrock. And Donaldson himself had just collected an MVP award in the American League. So, by a very liberal application of the transitive property, I concluded that Schrock would as well.

There were, of course, a number of reasons to suppose that Max Schrock would not win an MVP award in the major leagues. There remain a number of reasons. Chief among them is probably this: the best player of the current era — and possibly any one’s era ever — has received only one MVP award during his first four seasons in the majors and faces a non-negligible chance of extending that record to one in five years. If Mike Trout is capable of just a 20% conversion rate on MVP awards, everyone else’s chances are dramatically lower.

Moreover, there’s the matter of Schrock himself. Because, here’s a type of prospect who rarely develops into a perennial MVP candidate: a 5-foot-8 hitter. And here’s another kind: an infielder who’s incapable of playing a competent shortstop. And here’s a third sort: a player who’s selected in the 13th round. How many 5-foot-8, 13th-round second basemen have been recognized as their respective league’s best? I lack the requisite ambition to perform the search. But none seems like a reasonable answer. Let’s assume none or somewhere close to none. Indeed, even Josh Donaldson, whose ascent to stardom is regarded as improbable, is a former first-round selection. And features physical attributes that suggest the ability to hit for power. And offered, as a young player, the possibility of defensive value as a catcher. (And continues to offer it as a markedly above-average third baseman.) Schrock possesses none of these redeeming qualities.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Baltimore at Washington | 19:05 ET
Jimenez (94.2 IP, 116 xFIP-) vs. Scherzer (174.0 IP, 82 xFIP-)
You probably didn’t expect to find that a late-August game started by Ubaldo Jimenez — who, for whatever his virtues, now possesses both below-average command and velocity — would be identified as the day’s most promising by an algorithm designed to identify such things. That said, you also didn’t expect your uncle Danny to remain on nodding terms with sobriety all the way till the end of your wedding reception, and yet that’s precisely what happened. These aren’t miracles, per se, but brief respites from a labyrinth of difficulties.

In this case, the main attraction is less Jimenez and more a combination of Max Scherzer (who’s built of electricity) and Jimenez’s club, the Orioles (whose postseason fate is among the least clear in the majors).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Washington Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Francisco at Los Angeles NL | 22:10 ET
Cueto (173.2 IP, 85 xFIP-) vs. Hill (76.0 IP, 84 xFIP-)
With the exception of a five-pitch appearance on July 17, from which he was forced to depart because of a troublesome blister, left-hander Rich Hill hasn’t produced an actual start-start since July 7th, when he recorded 10 strikeouts in six innings against the Astros in Houston. Tonight marks not only his return to the mound after that extended furlough, but also his debut as a Dodger, by which team he was acquired at the trade deadline.

Hill’s most notable quality, of course, is the capacity to throw a curveball that replicates precisely — according even to scientists, probably — the dimensions of a Fibonacci spiral. Regard:

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Francisco at Los Angeles NL | 20:10 ET
Bumgarner (175.2 IP, 86 xFIP-) vs. Maeda (136.2 IP, 91 xFIP-)
There are those who will tell you — on the subject of this sport about which we all care — there are those who’ll say that “the name of the game is getting wins.” Couriers of misinformation, is what this lot are. Look in any reference text of your choice, and you’ll see: the name of the game is baseball. So neither believe them, nor accept the ride they’ve offered, because it could very likely end in the abduction of your person.

This isn’t to say, of course, that wins aren’t important. They represent a sort of currency. Collect a sufficient number of them and you — you, in this case, being a major-league baseball team and not merely one who’s attempting to escape the woeful burdens of the workday for a moment — and you can exchange them for admission into the postseason.

What’s notable about the Giants and Dodgers at the moment is that they possess an almost identical number of wins, the former with 68, the latter with one more than 68. And if the Giants win tonight, both clubs will possess one more than 68 wins — and both sit atop the NL West. The consequences of the game are considerable, in other words. We watch, our breath teeming with bate.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles Television.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at Baltimore | 19:05 ET
Strasburg (145.1 IP, 79 xFIP-) vs. Bundy (75.0 IP, 104 xFIP-)
The Baltimore Catechism, a Catholic text used for relating the tenets of that religion to (predominantly) children, was introduced (according to no fewer than one internet sources) in 1885 at a gathering of American bishops known as the Third Council of Baltimore. Tonight, one finds a different council of Baltimore, involving not a collection of ecclesiastics, but rather two of the league’s most compelling starters and also one club (the Orioles) facing real consequences with every win and loss. A catechism is unlikely to be authored during the course of tonight’s proceedings, except in the broadest sense — and then maybe in even a slightly broader sense than that.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Washington Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Stroman at Cleveland | 13:10 ET
Stroman (153.2 IP, 80 xFIP-) vs. Kluber (163.0 IP, 79 xFIP-)
In the great tradition of utilizing arbitrary endpoints to the end of supporting an offhand observation, here’s an observation on the topic of Marcus Stroman supported by data produced between arbitrary endpoints.

The observation: Toronto starter Marcus Stroman is a better pitcher now than before the All-Star break.

The supporting data, in the form of a table:

Stroman has produced a distinctly higher strikeout rate, lower walk rate, and even slightly improved ground-ball rate since early July. This is indisputable. What’s more disputable: the import of the All-Star break in this development. In point of fact, what has the author done besides merely examine Stroman’s splits and relate the contents of two different rows? Nothing. Nothing, is what the author has done.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Toronto at Cleveland | 19:10 ET
Sanchez (152.1 IP, 83 xFIP-) vs. Tomlin (137.0 IP, 98 xFIP-)
Arguments surrounding end-of-season awards tend to invite discourse of the least civil variety — as well as a perversion both of logic and rhetoric. The “race,” as it were, for the American League Cy Young award is notable, however, for its unlikely participants.

Regard, a table of the top AL pitchers this season by a combination of WAR (which is wins above replacement calculated with FIP) and RA9-WAR (which is WAR calculated with runs allowed per nine innings):

Of course, some of these pitchers — Hamels, Sale, even Kluber now — possess a reputation as ace-types. (Although, how one would define “ace-type,” this is undertain). The two best pitchers by this metric, however, are more novel. Jose Quintana, of course, was acquired by the White Sox after having been granted minor-league free agency. Sanchez, for his part, has regarded the strike zone as a mere suggestion until this season.

By these numbers, specifically, Quintana is the favorite. But there’s also a strong case to be made for Sanchez. He’s pitching tonight for the Blue Jays. It’s allowable to observe him do it.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 676
Dave Cameron is the managing editor of FanGraphs. During this edition of FanGraphs Audio, he provides a summary of events from Saberseminar 2016, explains the logic of the Blue Jays’ front-office turnover despite that club’s considerable recent success, and meditates briefly on the absurdity of revocable waivers.

This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 47 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at Detroit | 19:10 ET
Porcello (158.0 IP, 93 xFIP-) vs. Fulmer (120.0 IP, 87 xFIP-)
Red Sox hitters who aren’t also otherwise employed as pitchers have produced a collective 116 wRC+ this year, the best such mark in the majors. “How does that compare to other clubs over the last half decade?” a reasonably curious person might ask. Better than the 2013 Red Sox, is the answer. But not as good as the 2011 Cardinals, though. And not as good as the 2011 Red Sox, either. But better than the 2013 Tigers. But less good than last year’s Blue Jays.

It’s the fifth-best mark, is another version of the answer. Another, more succinct version.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) received a future value grade of 45 or less from Dan Farnsworth during the course of his organizational lists and who (b) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, and John Sickels, and also who (c) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on a midseason list or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

Zack Granite, OF, Minnesota (Profile)
There are real indications that Granite is an asset in the field. Per the methodology employed by Baseball Prospectus, for example, he’s saved roughly seven runs defensively this season after recording a 12-run mark in 2015 — in both cases with a positional adjustment right around zero. Per Clay Davenport’s model, meanwhile, Granite has saved 10 runs in center this year — over roughly a half-season’s worth of games. Those minor-league fielding metrics are supported by other signs that Granite both has excellent speed and uses it well. Like how he’s recorded the fourth-most stolen-base runs in all of Double-A, for example. And like how’s produced the third-highest speed score among the 150 qualified batters across that same level.

Nor does this acknowledge Granite’s promise as a hitter, which he continued to exhibit this past week. Regard: in 29 plate appearances since the last edition of the Five, the 23-year-old struck out just once while also drawing two walks and hitting three triples. He continues to possess one of the very lowest strikeout rates across all Double-A.

Here’s footage from one of Granite’s recent triples:

Dinelson Lamet, RHP, San Diego (Profile)
The circumstances of Lamet’s signing were a bit unorthodox. Unlike most top international prospects, who sign as teenagers, Lamet didn’t receive a contract with a major-league organization until about a month before his 22nd birthday, signing with the Padres out of the Dominican for $100,000 at the end of the 2013-14 free-agency window. Lamet began the following year in the Low-A Midwest League and experienced success almost immediately, exhibiting both plus velocity and the capacity to miss bats.

He’s been particularly excellent of late, recording no fewer than seven strikeouts in each of his last five starts for Double-A San Antonio, producing strikeout and walk rates of 37.6% and 6.4%, respectively, in 27.0 innings over that interval. As for the repertoire, it remains encouraging, including a fastball that sat at 92-94 mph for Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser in May — a start during which Lamet appears to have paired an improving changeup with his already useful slider.

Here’s a footage of that slider from Lamet’s most recent start, if one were to have viewed that start through some manner of funhouse mirror:

German Marquez, RHP, Colorado (Profile)
“Who, precisely, is German Marquez?” appears to be a question to which the author should have known the answer before this week — because, for example, the most immediate answer is “a 21-year-old right-hander who’s struck out nearly 30% of the batters he’s faced over his first two Triple-A starts.” Young pitchers who dominate older competition in menacing run environments — these are instantly notable sorts of pitchers.

Here are some other relevant answers to the question of German Marquez’s identity:

• A former international free agent signed by Tampa Bay out of Venezuela in 2011 for $225,000.
• Part of the compensation received by Colorado from the Rays in exchange for Corey Dickerson.
• The owner of a fastball that “touch[es] 98 mph” and also a “plus curveball.”
• The 79th-best prospect according to one version of Chris Mitchell’s newest iteration of KATOH.
• Not German. Seemingly not even a little bit.

Max Schrock, 2B, Washington (Profile)
This represents Schrock’s fifth appearance among the Five proper, moving him up to sixth place on the arbitrarily calculated Scoreboard that appears at the bottom of this post. Regarding the precise implications of that achievement — this will ultimately be for posterity to decide, if and when posterity finds itself with almost nothing else to do. What’s notable about it for the moment, however, is that Schrock has only been eligible for the Five since the end of June, when he was promoted to High-A Potomac.

Schrock’s numbers over the past week weren’t particularly impressive on the surface. In 35 plate appearances, he produced a line of .250/.314/.406 — not substantively different, that, than the Carolina League average of .258/.333/.385. Schrock did it while striking out just twice, however — or in less than 6% of his plate appearances — and adding two doubles and a home run (recording a .156 ISO). This combination of elite contact skill and average-or-better power continues to define Schrock’s minor-league career.

Jaime Schultz, RHP, Tampa Bay (Profile)
While certain players have appeared among the Five more often than reason might dictate — owing to some manner of intoxicating power they exert over the author’s spiritual intellect — the case is quite the opposite for Schultz: he appears here almost against the author’s will. Indeed, there is a pretty solid argument to be made for the improbability of Schutlz’s success — or, at least his success as a starter — in the majors. Like the systematic lack of command he’s exhibited at basically every level, for example. And also like how the Rays have neglected to promote him even once despite the fact that he’s a 25-year-old who’s now recorded over 250 pretty strong innings between Double- and Triple-A.

But here one finds Schultz, nevertheless — in this case, on the strength (generally) of the arm speed he continues to possess and (specifically) of his two most recent starts. Which, here are the three most relevant figures from those starts:

• Innings: 13.2
• Batters: 53
• Strikeouts: 21

For those without a calculator at hand, what one finds here is about a 40% strikeout rate for Schultz. The 9% walk rate that accompanies it also represents a strong mark in the context of Schultz’s pitching oeuvre.

The Next Five
These are players on whom the author might potentially become fixated.

Dawel Lugo, 3B/SS, Arizona (Double-A Southern League)
Nathan Orf, 2B/3B, Milwaukee (Triple-A Pacific Coast League)
Fernando Romero, RHP, Minnesota (High-A Florida State League)
Ildemaro Vargas, 2B/SS, Arizona (Triple-A Pacific Coast League)
Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Milwaukee (Double-A Southern League)

Fringe Five Scoreboard
Here is the top-10 list of players who have appeared among either the Fringe Five (FF) or Next Five (NF) so far this season (which is to say, today). For mostly arbitrary reasons, players are assessed three points for each week they’ve appeared among the Fringe Five; a single point, for each week among the Next Five.