Episode 664
Lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen is the guest on this edition of the pod, during which he discusses this year’s top international free agents, reviews the top international free agents of 2011 to provide context for what one might expect out of such players, and discusses the relative inflexibility of the 20-80 scouting scale and why it’s actually a good thing.

This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 09 min play time.)

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Colorado at Los Angeles NL | 16:10 ET
Gray (76.1 IP, 82 xFIP-) vs. McCarthy (Season Debut)
Brandon McCarthy produced excellent fielding-independent numbers during his first four starts for the Dodgers, creating considerable optimism for his fifth one. Today marks the occasion of that fifth start — nearly a year and a half removed from his most recent appearance. The reason for the delay? Not, as one probably assumes, a grant-funded sabbatical to perform research abroad. No, rather: a procedure to reconstruct his UCL and the laborious rehabilitation which follows it. He’s touched 93 mph during his rehab starts according to J.P. Hoornstra of Inside SoCal — which, that probably places his average fastball velocity at something a bit, but not significantly, lower than what he was exhibiting before the injury.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Kansas City at Philadelphia | 17:50 ET
Duffy (66.2 IP, 84 xFIP-) vs. Nola (91.0 IP, 73 xFIP-)
Rather than discussing the virtues of a Royals-Phillies game, the purpose of this brief passage is rather to address how and why and how a game featuring Jake Arrieta and Bartolo Colon isn’t more well acquitted by the haphazardly calculated NERD scores fashioned by the author. In the case of Colon, the explanation is simple: for better or worse, there’s no bonus in NERD allotted to players merely for the resemblance they bear to a modern Falstaff. Were such a thing to exist, the Mets right-hander would rocket to the top of the charts.

As for Arrieta, the reason for his (relatively) low mark probably appears more opaque. But regard: this is a new development. The Cubs right-hander rated as a 10 all the way through his last start of 2015. The Arrieta pitching this year is different than that Arrieta, however. He’s throwing less hard and throwing fewer strikes and is taking more time in between pitches.

Regard:

He’s still suppressing batted-ball production — which is what allows him to produce better run-prevention numbers than his fielding-independent marks might otherwise suggest. It’s possible — and becoming more probable all the time — that Arrieta possesses the requisite skills to beat his FIP. Accounting for that in a metric this frivolous, however, is both absurd and difficult. Absurd is acceptable; difficult, less so.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Philadelphia Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Detroit at Tampa Bay | 19:10 ET
Fulmer (63.2 IP, 95 xFIP-) vs. Smyly (89.2 IP, 91 xFIP-)
Despite receiving the same NERD score as the afternoon Cleveland-Toronto game, this Detroit-Tampa Bay contest receives the distinction of the day’s most highly rated one because (a) it actually features a higher mark than that first one by three-hundredths of a point (6.53 vs. 6.50) and (b) that first game featuring the Indians and Blue Jays had already moved into the 12th inning before the author — who was occupied first by his editoral duties and then a nap — had completed this post. So while one might regard all this as a failure by the author to complete his work in a timely fashion, another person might declare it a victory for Leisure.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit Radio.

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The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) received a future value grade of 45 or less from Dan Farnsworth during the course of his organizational lists and who (b) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, and John Sickels, and also who (c) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on an updated prospect list or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

Chad Green, RHP, New York AL (Profile)
This represents Green’s second consecutive appearance among the Five and third overall this season. He entered the week having produced two excellent starts, recording strikeout and walk rates of 40.8% and 2.0%, respectively, over 14.0 innings of work. The 25-year-old right-hander didn’t reach those same frenzied heights in his most recent appearance, but continued to exhibit the same sort of fielding-independent dominance nevertheless. Facing Nationals affiliate Syracuse, Green produced a 6:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio against 21 batters over 6.0 innings, conceding just three hits and no runs (box). And again, this doesn’t appear to be a case of mere polish or deception: Green sat at 95 mph during his only career major-league start and 97 mph about a month later while appearing in a relief capacity for the Yankees.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Cleveland at Toronto | 19:07 ET
Carrasco (56.0 IP, 80 xFIP-) vs. Dickey (95.2 IP, 109 xFIP-)
More than one reader over the past month-plus has suggested — in only the most congenial possible terms, naturally — that perhaps Toronto right-hander R.A. Dickey isn’t entirely worthy of his high marks here. This is a fair sort of criticism to make. If one looks into his or her heart and finds that it’s unmoved by the prospect of R.A. Dickey, regardless of whatever charms Dickey’s knuckleball possesses — this is, essentially, a kind of Truth.

Here’s why Dickey is so well received by the haphazardly constructed pleasure-algorithm featured here. When the author first introduced a sort of prototype of NERD to readers at this site, there was something resembling consensus among those same readers — or at least those compelled to raise their internet voices — that Dickey, who has never possessed great velocity or the promise of youth or excellent fielding-indepedent numbers, ought to receive a bonus for the knuckleball. The solution: to provide a bonus to all pitchers calculated by multiplying the frequency with which they threw a knuckleball (KN%) by five. Since then, only Dickey and (now) Steven Wright have benefited from the adjustment, essentially receiving about extra four points above and beyond their leaguemates.

Ought the knuckleball bonus to be eliminated? Ought it, at the very least, to be decreased slightly? Perhaps. Readers are invited to comment on the matter with civility in the space below. Or invited to dismiss the entire matter as an absurd thing in an ocean of absurd things.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Boston (Price) at Tampa Bay (Moore) | 12:10 ET
Chicago NL (Hendricks) at Cincinnati (Reed) | 12:35 ET
Toronto (Sanchez) at Colordao (Anderson) | 15:10 ET
New York NL (Verrett) at Washington (Scherzer) | 19:05 ET

In both his book The Paradox of Choice (through which the present author has leafed casually) and a TED Talk (which the author watched eight years ago) psychologist Barry Schwartz discusses the means by which greater choice can actually facilitate less happiness. With more options, one expects greater satisfaction. When that satisfaction never materializes, however, one becomes disappointed with his or her own selections.

Today represents an opportunity to conduct this experiment for oneself: four games offer roughly the same expected pleasure according to the author’s haphazardly constructed NERD metric. Does this abundance of choice cultivate the same sort of Paradox addressed by Schwarz? Or is it somehow exempt from his point?

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Assorted, Naturally.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York NL at Washington | 19:05 ET
Harvey (85.1 IP, 101 xFIP-) vs. Giolito (MLB Debut)
It’s probably not entirely accurate to say that tonight’s start by Lucas Giolito represents his “world” premiere. Because he’s actually pitched before, is one reason. And also because only, like, a couple million people (at most) will actually observe the event — which figure only amounts to about 0.3% of the world. On the other hand, most everything one says isn’t entirely accurate. Like, “I love you,” for example. And like, “I love you, too.”

For those interested in consuming actual substantive commentary regarding Giolito should consider reading lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen’s scouting report here and the results of Chris Mitchell’s computer math on Giolito here.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: New York NL Television.

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Episode 663
Dave Cameron is the managing editor of FanGraphs. During this edition of FanGraphs Audio he discusses (on the occasion of another dominant performance by Jose Fernandez at Marlins Park) the current state of research on home-field advantage; attempts to explain why the Boston Red Sox might play a 29-year-old first baseman with a limited major-league future alongside top prospects Andrew Benintendi and Yoan Moncada at their Double-A affiliate; and reveals that the authors of FanGraphs are not clairvoyant.

This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 37 min play time.)

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Episode 662
Dayn Perry is a contributor to CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball and the author of three books — one of them not very miserable. He’s also the monstrous vermin on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 21 min play time.)

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