Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Chicago NL at Washington | 19:05 ET
Hendricks (68.1 IP, 84 xFIP-) vs. Scherzer (88.1 IP, 84 xFIP-)
Here’s a thought experiment the reader can conduct with a view towards (a) sharpening his or her understanding of playoff probabilities and/or (b) pushing away the sadness for another moment or two.

Regard, some relevant facts:

• The Cubs and Nationals possess the two best records in the NL.
• The Cubs lead their division by 9.0 games; the Nationals, by 4.5.
• The season is roughly 40% complete.

Given the information presented here, what do you think are the Cubs’ and Nationals’ odds of winning their respective divisions (using the FanGraphs Projections methodology)?

The answer for Washington is here; for Chicago, here. Divisional odds are denoted as DIV.

Readers’ Preferred Television Broadcast: Washington Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Detroit at New York AL | 14:05 ET
Fulmer (47.2 IP, 84 xFIP-) vs. Pineda (66.0 IP, 86 xFIP-)
One of the earliest and longest abiding lessons of field-independent metrics for the present author was the ease with which they illustrate how little control one ultimately exercises over the course of events. For those (like the author) whose personal ledgers are marked largely by failure, FIP offers some consolation. “Perhaps it isn’t entirely my fault,” one is able to say. “Perhaps it’s the merely vagaries of chance.”

By the fielding-independent metrics, Michael Fulmer was basically the same pitcher over his first four starts as his next four. His run-prevention numbers have not been identical over those two samples, however.

Michael Fulmer’s Eight Starts

Starts	IP	K%	BB%	xFIP	ERA	Diff
First Four	19.1	23.7%	9.7%	3.59	6.52	+2.93
Next Four	28.1	26.5%	6.9%	3.44	0.32	-3.12

Fulmer is a talented pitcher, one for whom — by virtue both of his physical tools and youth — it’s possible to expect great things. He’s neither so indomitable nor domitable as he’s alternately appeared this season.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Texas at Seattle | 22:10 ET
Lewis (76.0 IP, 112 xFIP-) vs. Paxton (9.2 IP, 29 xFIP-)
The left-handed Paxton established a career-high single-game average fastball velocity in his season debut on June 1st at San Diego. He established a new career-high mark in his next start — this one on June 6th against Cleveland. This evening’s game between Texas and Seattle represents Paxton’s third appearance of the year.

The difference between this version of Paxton and previous ones? Quite a bit, finds Eno Sarris — including a new arm slot, different pitch mix, and more dogged approach. The result has been basically a left-handed version of Noah Syndergaard. Regard, his average velocity marks per pitch type from that June 6th start compared to Syndergaard’s season figures.

Syndergaard vs. Paxton, Velocity Comparison

Pitch	Syndergaard in 2016	Paxton on June 6	Difference
Fastball	99.2	98.9	-0.3
Changeup	90.4	89.9	-0.5
Slider	92.0	91.1	-0.9
Curveball	82.8	84.4	+1.6

SOURCE: Brooks Baseball

The elite velocity hasn’t translated into elite run-prevention so far: Paxton has conceded 11 runs (only four earned) in 9.2 innings since this return. The strikeout and walk numbers have been elite, however, and are likely more indicative of his ability to record outs.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

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The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) received a future value grade of 45 or less from Dan Farnsworth during the course of his organizational lists and who (b) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and John Sickels, and also who (c) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on an updated prospect list or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

Greg Allen, CF, Cleveland (Profile)
Between last Friday (the day on which the previous edition of the Five was published) and yesterday afternoon (when the author composed the bulk of the present document), Allen produced a line that was simultaneously promising and underwhelming. Promising like this: over 17 plate appearances, Allen recorded a 3:3 walk-to-strikeout ratio while also reaching base twice by means of a hit-by-pitch. Which is to say, even before accounting for batted balls, Allen had already reached base on 29% of his plate appearances. Unfortunately, after accounting for batted balls, his numbers didn’t improve by much. One hit over 10 official at-bats led to a slash line of .100/.400/.100 for Allen. So far as outcomes are concerend, that’s not great. But outcomes at High-A are much less important than the process by which they’re produced. And Allen’s process is marked by a variety of skills, including contact and discipline and speed and defense and modest power. Whatever the process, it led to a very impressive outcome on Thursday night. Batting leadoff against the Cubs’ High-A affiliate, Allen recorded four hits — including a double and home run — in five plate appearances (box).

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at Minnesota | 20:10 ET
Wright (74.2 IP, 105 xFIP-) vs. Duffey (47.0 IP, 86 xFIP-)
The author’s dumb NERD metric is essentially the product of an attempt to reverse engineer, and reconstruct by way of objective measures, the tastes of those who’d read a site like FanGraphs. In most cases, the dumb NERD metric works sufficiently well. On Wednesday, for example, Noah Syndergaard faced Jameson Taillon in an encounter that represented the latter’s major-league debut. That game received the highest NERD score for the day by a reasonable margin. This would appear to represent an argument on behalf of the byzantine algorithm which produces NERD.

Conceiving of a scenario, however, in which this Boston-Minnesota contest facilitates more pleasure than the sort likely to be provided by the Dodgers-Giants game later in the evening — a game which features Clayton Kershaw, for example — poses greater challenges. Fortunately for everyone involved, the consequences of such a thing are basically non-extant.

In any case, the reasons for the relative optimism concerning the Red Sox-Twins game are twofold. First, one finds in the Red Sox a club that has produced the best adjusted batting line since the 1931 Yankees. Regression is bound to temper their achievement over a full season. Still, the point remains: few clubs hit at this level as a collective group. Also of some interest is Tyler Duffey, a former fifth-rounder with below-average arm speed who’s nevertheless recorded fielding-independent numbers about 15% better than average.

Readers’ Preferred Television Broadcast: Boston.

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Nos. #30 – #21
Nos. #20 – #11

Roughly four years ago now, the present author facilitated a crowdsourcing project designed to place a “grade” on each of the league’s television and radio broadcast teams. The results weren’t intended to represent the objective quality or skill of the relevant announcers, but rather to provide a clue as to which broadcast teams are likely to appeal most (or least) to the readers of this site.

The results of that original exercise have been useful as a complement to the dumb NERD scores published by the author in these pages. Four years later, however, they’ve become much less useful. In the meantime, a number of the broadcast teams cited in that original effort have changed personnel. It’s possible that the tastes of this site’s readers have changed, also.

Recently, the author published an updated version of the television rankings according to the site’s readership. This week: the results of that same exercise, but for radio broadcasts.

Below are the 10th- through 1st-ranked radio-broadcast teams, per the FanGraphs readership.

But first, three notes:

• Teams are ranked in ascending order of Overall rating. Overall ratings are not merely averages of Charisma and Analysis.
• The author has attempted to choose reader comments that are either (a) illustrative of the team’s place in the rankings or (b) conspicuously amusing.
• A complete table of ratings will appear in these pages on Friday, unless they don’t appear then.

10. Oakland Athletics
Main Broadcasters: Ken Korach and Vince Cotroneo
Ratings (Charisma/Analysis/Overall): 3.8, 3.7, 4.1

Representative Reader Comment
“Ken Korach has a beautiful radio voice and a great meal [sic] for conveying the emotion of a big moment.”

Notes
There isn’t much in the way of specific praise among readers for Korach and Cotroneo — not the sort, at least, which clearly separates them from the teams which appear either a few places above or below this one. Generally, respondents cite Korach’s voice and cadence as the main attraction. Which, this is sufficient to render a broadcast enjoyable, certainly.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Cleveland at Seattle | 22:10 ET
Tomlin (61.0 IP, 101 xFIP-) vs. Karns (61.2 IP, 95 xFIP-)
Cleveland last appeared in a proper postseason series in 2007; Seattle, in 2001. Currently, the clubs possess a 69% and 45% probability, respectively, of qualifying for the divisional series. The odds, then, of one or the other of them ending their plaoyff drought would appear strong. Much better than the reader’s odds, certainly, of escaping the darkness that devours us all.

Readers’ Preferred Television Broadcast: Seattle.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York NL at Pittsburgh | 19:05 ET
Syndergaard (70.2 IP, 50 xFIP-) vs. Taillon (MLB Debut)
The author is quoting his own grotesque self when he declares that Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard has produced the lowest adjusted xFIP among qualified pitchers since the entire time during which that metric has been available. The author is quoting other people when he notes that Pirates right-hander Jameson Taillon, who’s scheduled to record his major-league debut tonight, is one of baseball’s top prospects. Or, is quoting other people from 2013, at least — i.e., the most recent season before this one during which Taillon accumulated even one professional inning. Taillon, now 24 years old, has been excellent this season after a two-year hiatus, producing the top strikeout- and walk-rate differential among all Triple-A qualifiers while also sitting at 94-96 mph.

Readers’ Preferred Television Broadcast: New York NL.

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Episode 658
Dave Cameron is the managing editor of FanGraphs. During this edition of FanGraphs Audio he discusses what cognitive biases might be at play in the assessment of aging players, generally, and Jacoby Ellsbury, specifically; evaluates the organizational health of the Padres relative to recent Astros and Phillies clubs; and, as part of the Practical Analytics series, examines the proper variables to consider before purchasing months’ and months’ worth of deodorant.

This episode of the program is sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 47 min play time.)

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Nos. #30 – #21

Roughly four years ago now, the present author facilitated a crowdsourcing project designed to place a “grade” on each of the league’s television and radio broadcast teams. The results weren’t intended to represent the objective quality or skill of the relevant announcers, but rather to provide a clue as to which broadcast teams are likely to appeal most (or least) to the readers of this site.

The results of that original exercise have been useful as a complement to the dumb NERD scores published by the author in these pages. Four years later, however, they’ve become much less useful. In the meantime, a number of the broadcast teams cited in that original effort have changed personnel. It’s possible that the tastes of this site’s readers have changed, also.

Recently, the author published an updated version of the television rankings according to the site’s readership. This week: the results of that same exercise, but for radio broadcasts.

Below are the 20th- through 11th-ranked radio-broadcast teams, per the FanGraphs readership.

But first, three notes:

• Teams are ranked in ascending order of Overall rating. Overall ratings are not merely averages of Charisma and Analysis.
• The author has attempted to choose reader comments that are either (a) illustrative of the team’s place in the rankings or (b) conspicuously amusing.
• A complete table of ratings will appear in these pages on Thursday, unless they appear later than that.

20. Baltimore Orioles
Main Broadcasters: Joe Angel and Fred Manfra (and Jim Hunter)
Ratings (Charisma/Analysis/Overall): 3.8, 3.3, 3.6

Representative Reader Comment
“Angel… [d]oesn’t really offer any in-depth analysis or anything but he’s witty, natural, always ready to go. Never at a loss for words.”

Notes
There appears to be something like a consensus that Joe Angel is the real draw of the Orioles’ radio broadcast. There’s also something like a consensus that the author ought to be clear about the various broadcasters’ roles — namely, how Angel and Manfra serve as the main radio personnel, handling play-by-play duties in alternating fashion over the course of a game, and that Hunter periodically substitutes for one or the other of them.

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