Author Archive

NERD Game Scores for Wednesday, May 25, 2016

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
New York NL at Washington | 13:05 ET
Matz (41.2 IP, 71 xFIP-) vs. Roark (56.0 IP, 91 xFIP-)
Among Mets starters, the one who’s produced the best season thus far is (unsurprisingly) right-hander Noah Syndergaard. Syndergaard has recorded the highest strikeout rate on the club and lowest walk rate and highest ground-ball rate and top WAR figure and also remains the youngest, somehow. His virtues are manifold and impressive, one concludes. Among Mets starters who don’t invite very obvious comparisons to Norse deities, however, Steven Matz is the best — and all the distinctions which formerly applied to Syndergaard (highest strikeout rate, lowest walk rate, etc.) apply instead to him. Because he invites many fewer comparisons to deities, is why. Unless there’s a god somewhere named Steve the Approachable-Looking Fellow. In which case, Steven Matz probably bears a pretty close resemblance.

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NERD Game Scores for Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
New York NL at Washington | 19:05 ET
Harvey (48.1 IP, 97 xFIP-) vs. Strasburg (61.0 IP, 69 xFIP-)
A brief examination of the matter appears to suggest that Mets right-hander Matt Harvey both (a) continues to possess a number of the qualities typically also possessed by elite pitchers but that he (b) has nevertheless experienced some difficulties of late in terms of preventing runs. During his most recent start, for example — against Washington, as well — he didn’t acquit himself particularly well in terms of preventing runs, conceding nine of them (six earned) over just 2.2 innings (box). FanGraphs’ Eno Sarris, after performing the requisite forensic analysis, determined that a combination of slightly diminished velocity and less slightly diminished command of the slider is likely to blame. So this, it seems is what one ought to monitor tonight: Harvey’s fastball velocity and his command of the slider.

Readers’ Preferred Television Broadcast: New York NL.

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FanGraphs Audio: Dave Cameron on Analytics for Daily Life

Episode 654
Dave Cameron is the managing editor of FanGraphs. During this edition of FanGraphs Audio he discusses the implications which new regulations concerning overtime pay might possess for major-league clubs, the very bright financial prospects for Mets outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, and — at the request of the host — a wOBA-type metric for better determining the value of a residential property.

This episode of the program is sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 44 min play time.)

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NERD Game Scores for Monday, May 23, 2016

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Oakland at Seattle | 22:10 ET
Hill (49.2 IP, 89 xFIP-) vs. Walker (42.2 IP, 78 xFIP-)
One might be inclined, instead of opting for this game, to choose the one which features the Rays and Marlins, on account of that contest offers not only (a) two reasonably compelling starters but also (b) one of the very best center-field cameras in all of baseball. As opposed to this game, that is, which features two compelling starters, as well, but one of the worst center-field cameras. Unless there have been developments in the meantime, that is. In which case: ignore this entire brief entry. Whatever the case, the consequences are almost non-existent and we’re an embarrassment to our ancestors.

Readers’ Preferred Television Broadcast: Oakland Athletics.

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NERD Game Scores for Sunday, May 22, 2016

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Chicago NL at San Francisco | 20:05 ET
Hendricks (41.0 IP, 75 xFIP-) vs. Bumgarner (58.2 IP, 85 xFIP-)
It doesn’t require a brain surgeon to recognize that a game featuring two of the league’s more successful pitchers and more successful clubs — that such a game would possess some interest for the public. There’s also no reason to believe, however, that a medical doctor trained specifically in the field of neurology would be particularly well-suited to diagnosing the likely aesthetic value of such a game. There are a number of neurosurgeons, presumably, who have almost no familiarity with the Pastime. Like Nate’s dad, for example. He’s a neurosurgeon, but what does he know about sport? Nothing, is what.

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NERD Game Scores: Buy-Low Psychic Investment Opportunity

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Tampa Bay at Detroit | 16:10 ET
Smyly (49.2 IP, 85 xFIP-) vs. Fulmer (19.1 IP, 85 xFIP-)
The virtues of Drew Smyly as a pitcher are what Thomas Jefferson — and also anyone who possesses some facility with English — might describe as “self-evident.” As for Michael Fulmer’s virtues as a pitcher, those are decidedly less evident at the moment. Because one of the things he’s done is to concede earned runs at a rate about 50% higher than an average pitcher. By this measure, his virtues are rather obscure. But look: he’s produced a fielding-independent line that’s roughly a standard deviation better than the average starter’s. And a sitting fastball velocity more than a standard deviation better. And he’s also more than a standard deviation younger than the average starter. The marginal return on your psychic investment in Michael Fulmer is likely to be enormous. Thanks to Michael Fulmer, you’re going to be flush with psychic currency.

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The Fringe Five: Baseball’s Most Compelling Fringe Prospects

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) received a future value grade of 45 or less from Dan Farnsworth during the course of his organizational lists and who (b) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and John Sickels, and also who (c) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on an updated prospect list or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

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NERD Game Scores for Friday, May 20, 2016

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Toronto at Minnesota | 20:10 ET
Sanchez (52.0 IP, 84 xFIP-) vs. Duffey (24.1 IP, 84 xFIP-)
While it’s possible, it’s not at all probable, that all DJ Khaled does “is win.” Or, if his life really is marked by constant victory, it’s almost certainly the product of some seriously risk-averse behavior. For example: has he ever played chess? It’s unlikely that DJ Khaled would defeat a grandmaster, or even a pretty good master. Has he ever tried drugs? Because, when you try drugs, everybody loses. And here one finds merely two examples in which failure, of some sort, is inevitable. With regard to Minnesota right-hander Tyler Duffey, it’s incorrect to say that all he does is win, too. But during his brief major-league career, he’s recorded fielding-independent numbers — and also other kinds of numbers — that suggest he’s likely to win more than he loses. Which isn’t a comment one maybe expected to make about Tyler Duffey two years ago or one year ago.

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2016 Broadcaster Rankings (TV): #10 – #1

Introduction and #31-32
#30 – #21
#20 – #11

Roughly four years ago now, the present author facilitated a crowdsourcing project designed to place a “grade” on each of the league’s television and radio broadcast teams. The results weren’t intended to represent the objective quality or skill of the relevant announcers, but rather to provide a clue as to which broadcast teams are likely to appeal most (or least) to the readers of this site.

The results of that original exercise have been useful as a complement to the dumb NERD scores published by the author in these pages. Four years later, however, they’ve become much less useful. In the meantime, a number of the broadcast teams cited in that original effort have changed personnel. It’s possible that the tastes of this site’s readers have changed, also.

About a month ago, the present author began the process of reproducing that original crowdsourcing effort, facilitating a ballots for this site’s readers. This post represents the final installment of the corresponding results for the television side of things.

Below are the 10th- through 1st-ranked television broadcast teams, per the FanGraphs readership.

But first, three notes:

  • Teams are ranked in ascending order of Overall rating. Overall ratings are not merely averages of Charisma and Analysis.
  • The author has attempted to choose reader comments that are either (a) illustrative of the team’s place in the rankings or (b) conspicuously amusing.
  • A complete table of ratings cast will appear in these pages Friday.

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10. San Diego Padres
Main Broadcasters: Dick Enberg/Don Orsillo and Mark Grant
Ratings (Charisma/Analysis/Overall): 3.8, 3.1, 3.5

Three Reader Comments
• “Enberg is the best broadcaster no one talks about.”
• “Mark Grant… is funny and brings the knowledge and humor of a journeyman player.”
• “I want everyone to understand just how good Don Orsillo is at calling a game. Very. Very good, is the amount of good he is.”

Notes
A number of respondents cite similarities between Enberg in San Diego and Vin Scully up the coast in Los Angeles — not necessarily for the length of their tenure or prominence in the game (by which criteria Scully is unparalleled) but for their affability and comfort with the leisurely pace at which a baseball game is played. Grant, for his part, has the bearing of a “typical ex-player,” but does seem to offer a measure of playfulness and good humor to which readers respond well. As for Orsillo, he was largely adored by Boston fans.

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NERD Game Scores for Thursday, May 19, 2016

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at New York NL | 19:10 ET
Strasburg (55.0 IP, 73 xFIP-) vs. Harvey (45.2 IP, 95 xFIP-)
What one finds here is a game with considerable promise. Two elite pitcher with easy plus velocity. Two strong clubs, each of which currently possess greater than a 45% chance of winning the division. “Garden-variety excellence,” one might be inclined to call it. Unless, that is, the garden has been started by the author. In which case, the garden is much less impressive. Because the tomato seedlings haven’t even sprouted their true leaves yet. Even though it’s been, like, three weeks. Because he used these peat pots from Agway instead of a plastic starter tray. Even though the gardening book was pretty explicit about don’t use peat pots.

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