Author Archive

What’s Wrong with Yovani Gallardo?

The Milwaukee Brewers entered the 2011 season with some of the biggest expectations in team history. Behind a strong 1-2 punch of Zack Greinke and Yovani Gallardo (not to mention Shaun Marcum), the team finally had a pitching staff strong enough to match their offense. Things haven’t gone exactly as planned for the Brewers, however. Greinke made his first start for the team last night, while Gallardo has struggled in seven starts. While Greinke should be fine as long as he’s healthy, it’s tough to pinpoint whether Gallardo will turn things around this season.
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What’s Wrong with Francisco Liriano?

After five terrible starts to open the season, it’s time to wonder what the heck is wrong with Francisco Liriano. Finally healthy in 2010, Liriano delivered the best season of his career – in which he finished first in the American League in xFIP and second in the AL in FIP (behind Cliff Lee). This season, Liriano looks less like the Minnesota Twins’ ace, and more like their 25th man. With Kevin Slowey preparing to take over in the rotation, can Liriano turn it around before he loses his spot?
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Ethier En Fuego

Matt Kemp may have grabbed the early headlines for the Los Angeles Dodgers, but Andre Ethier is the talk of Hollywood right now. Propelled by a 24-game hitting streak, Ethier has been punishing baseballs the entire season. Ethier’s strong start continued Wednesday as he not only extended his hitting streak, but hit the eventual game winning home run in the 10th inning. As with most players on extended hitting streaks, Ethier has benefited from a great deal of luck this season. While that unfortunately makes Ethier a candidate for regression as the season progresses, there are a few interesting nuggets (copyright Peter King) in his stat line that indicate Ethier is completely locked in at the plate.
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John Danks: Ace?

Last season, the Chicago White Sox pitching staff led all of baseball in WAR. They did this without employing a starter that most baseball fans would consider an ace. Mark Buehrle may be the longest tenured White Sox pitcher, but his lack of strikeouts hardly make him an ace. While Gavin Floyd and Edwin Jackson are extremely effective when “on,” they can’t seem to sustain that success over a full season. That leaves John Danks, who has gotten off to a strong start this season. While he may not be a household name just yet, Danks has slowly developed into the White Sox best starter. If his early season results are any indication, he may actually be getting better.
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The Return of Josh Beckett

If the Boston Red Sox are going to contend for the World Series, much of their success is contingent on Josh Beckett’s return to form. After succumbing to a back injury last season, Beckett entered 2011 as one of the question marks on a strong Red Sox team. Throughout the month of April, Beckett has churned out some vintage performances. Now that Beckett appears fully healthy, should we expect his strong performances to continue?
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What’s Upton with Justin?

If someone told you Justin Upton would finally make the jump to “superstardom” this season, you may have been slightly hesitant to believe them. After all, Upton is coming off a somewhat disappointing season, in which his home runs dropped from 26 to 17 and his strikeout rate rose to an alarming 30.7%. Though his 3.1 WAR was still solid, it’s fair to say his future looked a lot brighter following his 2009 season. Upton has gotten off to a great start this season, and there’s evidence that suggests his strong start is sustainable. Perhaps this could be the year Upton fulfills his lofty expectations and becomes one of the best players in baseball.
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The White Sox Can’t Close the Deal

No lead is safe these days when a White Sox reliever enters the game. While Matt Thornton has taken the brunt of fan anger, his struggles now seem to have spread to the rest of the bullpen. The situation got crazier Wednesday when three relievers — including Thornton — blew a three-run lead in the final inning, leading Ozzie Guillen to tell the media that he didn’t have a closer. It’s too early to overreact, and Guillen is smarter than that*, but frustration is beginning to boil over with the Sox. 

Thornton entered the season as the newly-minted closer, but the shine quickly wore off. While the lefty has been his team’s best reliever the past few seasons (not to mention one of the best relievers in all of baseball), he’s struggled in his new role. No one wants to overreact to 4.2 innings pitched, but Thornton might need more time to refine his approach. Walks plagued him when he was with the Seattle Mariners, and those troubles have revisited Thornton so far this season. His velocity appears fine, which could mean that a bullpen session will fix these early struggles.

Chris Sale emerged as a potential candidate for saves this season as well, but he’s also experienced some problems. His issues, though, appear based more on luck rather than skill. Despite a strong strikeout to walk rate (9:1), Sale’s given up 11 hits in only 7.1 innings. So long as Sale doesn’t turn into a home-run machine, he should be fine.

Neither Jesse Crain, nor Sergio Santos, have pitched poorly this season, so perhaps they’re next in line for closing opportunities. Crain was part of the White Sox’s bullpen meltdown yesterday, which could mean that Santos might have a longer leash at the moment. Both players are capable of being successful closers, but the two lack the upside of either Thornton or Sale. It’s also Santos’ second season as a pitcher (in his career), so Guillen may be hesitant to install him in that role in the immediate future. With four options, none of which are all that appealing at the moment, what will Guillen do?

Despite his early troubles, Thornton has gotten consistent support from his manager. Guillen also likely realizes that Thornton is his best pitcher, and that he should be able to rebound rather quickly. For now, the frustration with the pen is at a high point and Guillen is likely to ride the hot hand. Could that include Tony Pena? Maybe, but it’s not likely. Once Thornton returns to form, he should return to the closer role.

If, however, one player emerges and Guillen names him the closer for the remainder of the season, not all is lost for Thornton. If we think a team’s best pitcher should be used during the most important moments of the game, then utilizing Thornton in that role is the optimal way for Ozzie to run his pen. Even though Bobby Jenks was the closer the past few seasons, Thornton was the Sox’s most reliable pitcher, and the guy Guillen brought in with the bases loaded in the eighth inning.

It’s too early for teams to panic and make dramatic changes with such small samples, but that won’t stop the White Sox. Their early bullpen issues have been so overblown this season that Guillen will play the match-up game until someone emerges. Thornton, though, is still the best option in the pen. Once he returns to form, the Sox could re-install him as the full-time closer. But it shouldn’t be viewed as a failure if Thornton doesn’t reclaim the job. He’s long been one of the best “secret closers**” in the game, and the White Sox have plenty of options.

*You can take my word for it, or you can call me an idiot in the comments.

**Copyright Carson Cistulli


Oakland Extends Cahill

Locking up young players shortly after they reach the majors is all the rage these days in Major League Baseball. It should come as no surprise then that the Oakland Athletics locked up Trevor Cahill on Monday. Looking to build on his breakout season, Cahill signed a 5 year deal worth approximately $30.5 million. Oakland also holds two team options on Cahill valued at $13 million and $13.5 million. Despite Cahill’s 2010 breakout, he’s been a popular regression candidate this season. With that in mind, was Cahill a good candidate for an extension?

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Sunday Night Live Blog


Matt Garza’s Crazy Start

When Matt Garza was acquired by the Chicago Cubs this off-season, he was expected to provide stability to a rotation with some question marks. Garza’s first start with the Cubs was anything but stable, as he likely posted one of the strangest pitching lines we will see this season. Over 7 innings, Garza managed to post 12 strikeouts while allowing 12 hits and no walks. His performance in the game actually led to Garza posting a FIP of -0.48. (Since we are dealing with really small samples here, it’s important to note that this isn’t terribly uncommon early in the season. Still, it’s kind of cool to have a negative FIP, right?) The line is so unique, however, because it’s tough to understand how one pitcher can be so hittable/un-hittable in the same game. Let’s take a closer look at how this could have happened?
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