Warning: The content of this post breaks two major rules recently laid out by the FanGraphs writing team. It’s a post about stats from last week, and it validates the first prediction in Matt Klaassen’s recent post. You’ve been warned, now proceed at your own risk.

Despite posting an ERA of 2.97, and winning 18 games last season, Trevor Cahill entered 2011 as one of the major regression candidates due to some poor peripherals. One of the most puzzling aspects of Cahill’s young career, and one of the reasons analysts are calling for regression, has been Cahill’s low strikeout rate in the majors. Over his minor league career, Cahill struck out 9.9 hitters per game. In the majors, however, Cahill has managed to strike out only 5.12 batters per nine innings. One theory behind Cahill’s struggles in the majors deals with the use of his curve ball. Minor league scouting reports rated Cahill’s curve as a true wipe-out offering. Once he reached the big leagues, however, he stopped relying on his curve. Well, the curve, and the strikeouts, returned in Cahill’s first start of the 2011 season. Unfortunately, those two facts have little to do with each other.

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The offseason may have brought lofty expectations upon the Philadelphia Phillies, but recent preseason injuries have put a damper on that excitement. The latest Phil to fall victim to the injury bug is closer Brad Lidge, who will miss 3-6 weeks before he can begin throwing again. When healthy, Lidge has proven to be one of the most dominant relievers in the game. To replace that dominance, the Phillies have annointed Jose Contreras as their interim closer. With Ryan Madson reprising his role as a top set-up man, will the Phillies even miss Lidge?
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Average performances in all four categories leads to the biggest surprise in the rankings thus far. Baltimore certainly should be considered a team on the rise, but is it enough to justify their lofty position here?

Present Talent – 75.00 (T-20th)

Orioles Season Preview

Future Talent – 85.00 (T-5th)

Orioles Top 10 Prospects

Financial Resources – 76.67 (17th)
Baseball Operations – 76.82 (T-20th)

Overall Rating – 77.45 (15th)

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Once viewed as the third baseman of the future for the Milwaukee Brewers, Mat Gamel has been optioned to Triple-A for the third consecutive season. Gamel has always shown the ability to hit, but injuries have prevented him from making the Opening Day roster the last two seasons. Due to those injuries, Casey McGehee was able to grab hold of the Brewers’ third base position in 2009. After another strong season in 2010, McGehee has rendered Gamel a spare part. Still youngish (to borrow a term from Carson Cistulli), does Gamel still fit into the Brewers’ plans?
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The minor league talent may be impressive, but deficiencies in every other category put the Royals near the bottom of the list once again.

Present Talent – 65.00 (30th)

Royals Season Preview

Future Talent – 95.00 (1st)

Royals Top 10 Prospects

Financial Resources – 71.00 (25th)
Baseball Operations – 75.00 (25th)

Overall Rating – 73.80 (25th)

Despite a bundle of prospects that rank among the best ever; the Royals’ failures at the major league level, combined with the uncertainties surrounding their financial flexibility have led to another poor showing in the Organization Rankings. While their talented prospects certainly make the Royals a team on the rise, the eventual promotion of those prospects will have a major impact on each aspect of the Royals’ organization.
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Despite the fact that he’s never played above AA ball, Matt Dominguez is the favorite to open the season as the starting third baseman for the Florida Marlins. Typically, a prospect that claims a starting job at such a young age is regarded as one of the strongest prospects in all of baseball. This, however, is not necessarily the case for Dominguez. Although Marc Hulet rated Dominguez as the Marlins’ top prospect coming into the 2011 season, Dominguez ranked 81st on Baseball America’s top prospect list. The Marlins’ aggressive promotion schedule with Dominguez is definitely a risky proposition considering his inexperience. 

Dominguez spent the entire 2010 season in AA, and, while promising, his performance left a lot of room for growth. In 577 plate appearances, Dominguez managed to hit .252/.333/.411, not exactly a performance that warrants such an aggressive promotion. The most troubling aspect of Dominguez’s minor league numbers is his elevated strikeout rate. Over the course of his minor league career, Dominguez has struck out once in every six plate appearances.

If Dominguez is exposed to major league pitching this season, his strikeout rate could balloon to astronomical heights. Thankfully, Dominguez has shown patience over his career, and could balance out his poor average with a strong walk rate. In 32 at-bats this Spring, Dominguez has hit .219/.324/.438, which probably isn’t a far cry from the batting line he would post during the upcoming season (higher average, but lower on-base and slugging percentages). Dominguez, however, is regarded as one of the best defensive third baseman in the minors, and should be able to gather a decent amount of value from his glove. Those skills might be enough to push him above the replacement level this season.

Still, the Marlins run the risk of ruining Dominguez if he flops at the major league level. If he struggles to raise his average above the Mendoza line and starts to press, his confidence could take a huge hit. The problem is, the Marlins don’t really have any better options at the position.

Neither Wes Helms nor Emilio Bonifacio inspire much confidence as starters. While their offensive performances could come close to matching Dominguez’s skill set, Helms and Bonifacio wouldn’t come close to matching Dominguez’s defensive value. If we dismiss those players from contention, we are left with Omar Infante and Chris Coghlan.

As Joe Pawlikowski recently explained, the Marlins could choose to alter their lineup due to the versatility of Coghlan and Infante. Both players have limited experience at third base throughout their careers, and it would be tough to predict how they would perform defensively at the position. Neither player profiles as an ideal hitter at third base, but both would probably churn out a more consistent offensive performance than Dominguez.

That said, the Marlins seem pretty committed to starting Infante at second and Coghlan in center. Based on all the buzz surrounding Dominguez this Spring, it looks like he’s going to win the job at third base. While some will suggest Coghlan or Infante be moved to other positions, it’s hard to argue with installing Dominguez at third. The cupboard is pretty bare for the Marlins at the position, and Dominguez is the only strongest option they have. He should provide the strongest defense of the bunch, and might hit just enough to justify the promotion. The Marlins are taking a significant risk with the move, however, and it’s now up to Dominguez to learn how to hit major league pitching on the fly. If he can’t, the Marlins have no one else to turn to this season.

The Milwaukee Brewers’ acquisition of Zack Greinke shocked the baseball world this off-season. Although the Brewers gave up two of their projected starters, many pundits thought the move made the Brewers the class of the NL Central. While it was easy to overlook the players the Brewers dealt, they’ve left themselves awfully thin at some key positions. As a result of the trade, both Yuniesky Betancourt and Carlos Gomez vault into starting roles. Combine that with the fact that Jonathan Lucroy is still adjusting to major league pitching, and you have potential for replacement-level performances at three positions. Even with all the off-season acquisitions, are the Brewers strong enough to overcome their weakest players?
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They say “everything’s bigger in Texas,” and nothing exemplifies that more than the expectations surrounding the Texas Rangers. After an incredible season in which they won the AL Pennant, the pressure will be on the Rangers to repeat last year’s success. Due to the departure of Cliff Lee during the offseason, much of that pressure will once again fall on the rotation. The offense may be built around some extremely talented players, but those players come with significant injury concerns. Despite last season’s success, there are many questions surrounding the Rangers this season. Do they have what it takes to live up to their lofty expectations?
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When looking at Matt Thornton’s career with the Chicago White Sox, it’s hard to believe he was acquired for Joe Borchard. Both players had fallen out of favor with their teams at the time of the trade, and both have since gone in very different directions. Under the tutelage of Don Cooper, Matt Thornton has blossomed into one of the best relievers in the game. While Bobby Jenks was the most recognizable name in the White Sox bullpen, Thornton has been the better pitcher over the last three seasons. Thornton’s dominance hasn’t gone unnoticed by the White Sox, who signed him to a two-year, $12 million extension Sunday. Despite his age, Thornton has yet to show any signs of decline, making this contract a huge win for the White Sox.
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When Barry Zito signed the most lucrative pitching contract in baseball history (at the time), few expected him to live up to his lofty new salary. Just four seasons into his seven-year $126 million deal, one San Francisco writer isreporting Zito might be on the verge of getting cut. According to the article, the San Francisco Giants have grown “exasperated” with Zito, and would consider buying out his contract before the season starts. There’s no doubt Zito has failed to live up to expectations with the Giants, but giving Zito his walking papers would be a poor decision.
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