Author Archive

Should Anyone Sign Derrek Lee?

Derrek Lee hasn’t retired just yet. According to Ken Rosenthal, Lee is looking to play during the upcoming season, but he’s looking for the “right opportunity.” Lee struggled early on last season, but managed to turn his season around upon being traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates — albeit, in a very small sample. Still, Lee’s resurgence with Pittsburgh hasn’t led to a ton of offers. Given the current state of the position, Lee probably shouldn’t be selective about his opportunities.
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Positional Power Rankings: Second Base

For an explanation of this series, go ahead and read the introduction. All the posts in the series can be found here.

We’re going to continue our positional power rankings series by focusing on the keystone. While playing time for some teams were relatively easy to figure, there were more than a few teams that have serious question marks at second. As Eric Seidman explained yesterday, the goal here is to determine how much value the position will produce. So while you will see Michael Young make an appearance on this list, his WAR only reflects his value at second base. Enough talking, let’s do this.

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Brewers, Axford Working On Extension

John Axford is ready to be a Milwaukee Brewer for a very long time. Though he’s the only player on the Brewers’ current 40-man roster without a contract for the upcoming season, Axford and the Brewers have communicated about a potential long-term extension that would buy out his remaining arbitration years. Given that he’s coming off a season in which he emerged as one of the best closers in the game, now is a good time to secure his future finances. But given the volatility of relievers, the Brewers might be better off letting the Ax-man go year-to-year a little longer.

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Royals Take A Page From Rays, Extend Perez

Salvador Perez just joined a very exclusive club. By signing a five year, $7 million guaranteed contract — which includes three additional option years — with the Kansas City Royals, the 21-year-old catcher joins Evan Longoria and Matt Moore as players who have signed significant extensions before accumulating a year of major-league service time. While Longoria’s and Moore’s contracts are considered major steals for the Tampa Bay Rays, the Perez deal is a bit more uncertain. With the Royals starting their build a competitive team, they need to be sure they’re extending the right players.
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Chone Figgins, Leadoff Hitter

The Seattle Mariners are looking for any way to get some value out of Chone Figgins. Since joining the team, the 34-year-old has been one of the worst regulars in the game. So to salvage what’s left of his contract, the Mariners are making Figgins a leadoff hitter — again. It’s a last ditch effort to improve his value, though it’s unclear whether Figgins’ contract can be saved.

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Can Arizona Win Without Stephen Drew?

Stephen Drew could miss the start of the 2012 season. The soon-to-be-29-year-old has been slow to recover from a devastating ankle fracture, which ended his season in mid-July. With the Arizona Diamondbacks defending their National League West crown, Drew’s return will play a big role if the D-Backs plan to repeat.

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The Best Pitches of 2011: Sliders

Yesterday, Carson Cistulli kicked of our coverage of the best pitches of the 2011 season — and the pitchers responsible for throwing them. Carson looked at fastballs, and I’ll be covering sliders. Carson laid out the number of criteria he considered when putting together his list, so, instead of writing it again, I’ll just link to his article.

I considered the same factors as Carson when looking at sliders, but also paid closer attention to relief pitchers. Some relievers actually throw sliders more than they throw their fastballs — think Brad Lidge or Carlos Marmol — so I felt it was important to weigh wSL/C a tiny bit more than Carson. Because while relief pitchers weren’t able to rack up a strong cumulative value in the category due throwing fewer innings, they deserve credit for having a wipeout slider. Without further introduction, let’s see who made the list this past season.

Note: The average movement for a slider in 2011 was 1.9 H-movement and 1.0 V-movement.
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Marlins Make Offer to Cespedes

Just three days after Yoenis Cespedes toured their new ballpark, the Miami Marlins have reportedly offered the 26-year-old outfielder a contract.

The contract is allegedly for six years, but the financial details are shaky at this time. While the initial report suggested the deal was worth $40 million, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald is hearing the Marlins offered less money. Unless the Marlins have offered significantly less than $40 million, Cespedes’ contract will likely break the record for Cuban-born players. That slot is currently held by Aroldis Chapman, who received a six year, $30.25 million contract from the Cincinnati Reds.

Signing Cespedes would be a huge gain for the Marlins, who currently lack a true center fielder on their roster. The Chris Coghlan experiment was a disaster last season, causing the Marlins to turn to Emilio Bonifacio. While Bonifacio experienced a breakout season, much of his success was a result for a .372 BABIP, which was the second highest BABIP among qualified hitters last season. His defense has been acceptable in the outfield over his career, but he posted a -2.6 UZR in center this past season.

We don’t know what kind of defense Cespedes will play in center, but we have already taken our best guess at what his bat will produce. Jack Moore noted that Cespedes was probably less of a risk than other Cuban-born players, and Clay Davenport projected Cespedes’ stats based on his performance in the Cuban league. Based on Davenport’s research, Cespedes should hit .260/.325/.457 in the majors. Those numbers would put him in line with the average center fielder, who hit .261/.325/.406 this past season. What sets Cespedes apart from the typical center fielder is his power potential. Few center fielders are capable of hitting 20+ home runs each season. Even if Cespedes is a slightly below-average defender, his bat should make him the best option to play center on the Marlins.

While Cespedes is likely the Marlins’ best option in center, it’s unclear how soon he’ll be able to make an impact in the majors. At 26, he’s much older than the typical prospect, but he’ll likely need time to adjust in the minors before he’s ready to take on major league pitchers. Cespedes will already have to adjust to numerous lifestyle changes once he begins his professional career in the US, which, I would imagine, can be very stressful. If the Marlins promote Cespedes before he’s ready and he struggles, that’s one more thing Cespedes will have to worry about.

Still, Cespedes’ potential makes him an intriguing candidate for most major league teams. The Marlins, in particular, are in need of a center fielder, and Cespedes looks like an ideal fit for them. Even if he’s not with the team initially, he’ll definitely make an impact at some point this season. The race for the NL crown should be tight this season, and signing Cespedes strengthens the Marlins’ chances to contend for the division.


Rich Harden to Miss 2012

According to CSN’s Ray Ratto, who attributes this piece of news to Peter Gammons, Rich Harden will miss the upcoming season due to a torn capsule in his shoulder.

While a visit to Dr. James Andrews is never a good thing, it almost seemed inevitable for Harden. After a tremendous 2004 season, in which he compiled a 4.5 WAR in 189.2 innings, Harden’s career has been riddled with injuries. Harden has been on the DL at least five times since 2005 — really six if you count his lat injury last season — with arm-related injuries, but he’s also had trouble with his back, hip and obliques over his career. Though his injuries haven’t affected his ability to strike out hitters, Harden’s effectiveness and stamina have suffered.

Though he still missed considerable time this past season, Harden managed to reestablish some of his value with his return to Oakland. He maintained a high strikeout rate and got his walks back to an acceptable level. Harden actually remained healthy enough to be involved in a potential trade to the Boston Red Sox at the deadline. The Red Sox declined after looking at Harden’s medical reports. While his 5.12 ERA was worse than his 4.69 FIP and 3.68 xFIP suggested, the A’s made him a free agent this winter.

Interest in Harden this winter has been mild. While there was some talk that Harden could be used as a reliever, nothing materialized. A move to the bullpen may have allowed Harden to limit his innings, but he’s probably not the type of guy who should be pitching consecutive days. Pitching fewer innings could have maximized Harden’s value, but he would still have to be handled with extreme care. Harden probably would have pitched so infrequently that teams didn’t think it was the worth the trouble to take a chance on him.

Gammons responded to the story this morning, claiming Harden has always been hurt, and will finally come back healthy in 2013. While that might explain Harden’s past arm issues, one has to wonder how the injury went undetected for several seasons as Gammons’ tweet seems to suggest.

Now that he’s expected to miss the 2012 season, Harden’s career could be over. And he’s only 30. After having a major shoulder surgery, teams are going to be concerned with how he’ll hold up next season. Injury prone veterans coming off torn capsule surgery aren’t the most desirable free-agent targets. Unless Harden comes back stronger than ever, this could be the end of the line.


Manny Being Relevant?

The Baltimore Orioles have had preliminary talks with Manny Ramirez. While Eric Seidman recently detailed some veterans who may be forced to retire due to lack of interest, Ramirez seems to be an outlier. He’ll be 40 in May — and he still has to serve a 50-game suspension — but teams are still interested.

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