The sixth annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference was held in Boston last weekend, and it was bigger and better than ever. Over 2,200 people were in attendance and the list of panelists included team owners, general managers, coaches, and more. According to conference organizers, 73 teams were represented among MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, MLS and EPL. Notably, the Baseball Analytics Panel was moderated by Rob Neyer and consisted of Rocco Baldelli, Scott Boras, Bill James, Jeff Luhnow and Mark Shapiro.

This article won’t be a recap of the conference, but rather part one of a series of conversations I had over the two days. First up is Dean Oliver and in the weeks to come we’ll hear from Baldelli [hitting], John Dewan [defensive metrics], Dan Rosenheck and Adam Jonas [the ramifications of an international draft] and Jon “Boog” Sciambi [advanced stats and broadcasting].

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During the conference’s Box Score Rebooted panel, Oliver suggested that he had a lot of opinions on Wins Above Replacement. He didn’t address them, so I caught up to him later in the day to hear his thoughts. A respected voice in basketball analytics, Oliver is currently the director of production analytics at ESPN.

Dean Oliver on defining replacement level: Read the rest of this entry »

As a rule, scouting directors are among the humblest people you’ll find in professional baseball. Almost to a fault, they’ll deflect credit away from themselves while lauding the efforts of others. Kip Fagg of the Texas Rangers is no exception, but you could hardly blame him if he wanted to take a bow. Under his leadership, the Rangers have signed as many potentially elite players as any team in baseball in recent years.

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Fagg, on 2011 first-round pick Kevin Matthews not being ranked among the top 20 prospects in the system: “I believe it shows the strength of our system and what our scouts have done. We have a good group of guys involved in our scouting and we all see each other’s players. I see a ton of international guys. Under the direction of [Senior Director of Player Personnel] A.J. Preller, [Senior Advisor to the GM, Scouting] Don Welke, [Director of Pro Scouting] Josh Boyd, and [Director of International Scouting] Mike Daly, the whole group has done a tremendous job identifying interesting players that are high-end with upside. It‘s a group effort.”

“In regard to where Kevin, or any of our players, are ranked, it doesn’t alarm me too much or excite me too much. Rankings are subjective and opinions vary on where certain players show up on various lists. I’ve also been doing this for a long time and understand that this is a process. Young kids with Kevin’s upside will take some time to mature and develop. Scouting, and baseball in general, are very humbling experiences, so I try not to get caught up in rankings, especially when the player is only one or two years into the pro game. So much can change in four or five years.”

INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS

On the team’s success in the international market: Read the rest of this entry »

Tom McNamara is playing a major role in the Mariners’ rebuilding efforts. Seattle’s scouting director for each of the past three drafts, McNamara added a franchise cornerstone when he took Dustin Ackley with the second-overall pick in 2009. A year later, he selected a raw high school right-hander named Taijuan Walker — now the team’s top-prospect — 43rd overall. Last June, he boldly nabbed left-hander Danny Hultzen with the second pick of a draft considered to have been one of the deepest in years.

McNamara talked about his scouting philosophy — including what he has learned working under Jack Zduriencik — and the decisions to take Walker and Hultzen.

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On scouting Hultzen: “About two weeks before the draft we set up our board. We’re running around, seeing players all spring, and then we get into that room and start ranking the players. I keep it simple. We take the best guy and Dan fit that bill for us.

“I saw Dan pitch in high school, so we had a history with him. We saw him all three years in college and he improved each year. He was a Friday-night guy at Virginia, in a good conference, and [last year] I got to see him four times against pitchers who went in the first three rounds. We’d had our eyes on him all spring and wanted to make sure we saw him as much as we could.”

On Zduriencik‘s role in the draft: Read the rest of this entry »

Thanks to an infusion of high-profile prospects into the pipeline, there is a light at the end of tunnel in Pittsburgh. Scouting director Greg Smith has brought some elite talent into the system in the past two years, highlighted by last June’s first-overall pick, UCLA right-hander Gerrit Cole, and 2010 second-overall selection, Jameson Taillon. And don’t forget about last year’s second-round pick — the supposedly unsignable Josh Bell — who has as much potential as either Cole or Taillon.

Smith talked about his recent picks, the Pirate’s renewed efforts in the international market and the impact that the new Collective Bargaining Agreement will have on future drafts.

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THE DRAFT AND THE NEW CBA

Smith, on the importance of the last two drafts to the organization: “They’re probably not any more important than the ones prior, but only because we take the position that — as far as the amateur draft market goes — you have to continue that influx of talent. Where you’re picking, and the particular draft class — the landscape each year — only allows you so much opportunity to do that.

“The impact the scouting department has on each organization is that if you have a good draft, it can impact your club for years to come. Conversely, if you have a not-so-good draft, it probably impacts it even more because of the lack of talent coming in.

“There is no question that with us picking high in the last couple of years, a lot more attention has been drawn to it, and rightfully so. It’s something where — especially in the market we’re in — we need to put a lot of emphasis on the acquisition of amateur players.”

On the impact of the draft-related changes in the new CBA: Read the rest of this entry »

When the Indians took Francisco Lindor with the 8th-overall pick in last year’s draft, they brought into the fold — in the opinion of scouting director Brad Grant — “a potential Gold Glove shortstop.” The 18-year-old switch-hitter also profiles well with the bat, which helps explain why Cleveland was willing to draft a high school player in the first round for the first time in a decade. Grant talked about the selection of Lindor, from the scouting process to the tools to the projection.

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Grant on the discovery and pursuit of Francisco Lindor: “We first became aware of Francisco as a 16-year-old on Team USA. By the time he was 17, we were very, very aware of him. That’s what kind of made him a unique case for us: the amount of history we were able to build with him. We had already seen Francisco quite a bit by the time he got to his senior year of high school.

“Our first report on him said that he had the uncanny ability to play shortstop. His instincts and actions were advanced for his age. He had the type of ability where we could say, ’This guy can play shortstop and stay at shortstop.’ A lot of times you hear it said that a guy has a chance to stay at short. With Francisco, we were pretty sure that he could.

Read the rest of this entry »

Being selected by the Twins in the Rule 5 draft means more for Terry Doyle than an opportunity to make a big-league roster. It also improves the 26-year-old right-hander’s financial situation, which has been anything but rosy. Not only has he been augmenting his modest minor-league salary by substitute teaching in the off-season, five years ago he made a decision that cost him close to $20,000.

A math major at Boston College, Doyle was drafted in the 21st round by the Dodgers, in 2007. Despite an inconsistent junior year, he asked for more than slot, which at the time was approximately $20,000. The Dodgers declined, and Doyle returned to school with hopes of improving his draft status and receiving a similar bonus as a senior sign. Instead, he ended up settling for $1,000 after the White Sox took him in the 37th round.

Thanks to an impressive 2011 season, Doyle is about to recoup that lost money, and more. Just how much he earns will depend on whether he breaks camp with the Twins or is returned to the White Sox, but simply being on a 40-man roster means a larger paycheck.

What else does it mean, and how did the math-whiz-turned-Rule-5-selection earn himself this opportunity? Those questions were answered by Doyle, his agent, and a scout for a major-league team.

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RULE 5 RAMIFICATIONS:

Doyle: “Everybody’s goal in the minor leagues is to get to the big leagues and the Rule 5 is just another opportunity to do that. The difference that it makes financially is what’s big. It’s night and day. The average minor leaguer probably makes about $1,500 a month, whereas the big-league minimum is about $480,000 a year. The difference there is life-changing. If you’re on the 40-man — which you go on when you get taken in the Rule 5 — even if you’re in the minor leagues you get about $40,000 a year, which is a significant pay raise. Of course, if I go back to the White Sox, I won’t be on a 40-man anymore.” Read the rest of this entry »

Josh Outman was back last year after missing the 2010 season due to an arm injury that required Tommy John surgery. That alone doesn’t make him unique — plenty of hurlers undergo the procedure — but there‘s more to the story.

Outman was employing a conventional delivery when his pitching elbow gave out, but that hadn’t always been the case. Prior to being drafted — in 2005 by the Phillies — the hard-throwing southpaw utilized a biomechanically-structured delivery that was developed by his father, Fritz. When I first interviewed Outman, in 2008, he described it this way.

“You would start from what would look like the stretch, your glove side facing the plate with the pitching hand in the glove. The pitching arm would then go to where the humerus is vertical, or the pitching elbow facing the sky and the elbow at a 90-degree angle. The glove would come up to where it appeared as though you were catching your glove-arm shoulder while bringing the glove elbow up high enough to conceal the baseball that is positioned almost behind your head. Then, taking a walking step towards the plate you would deliver the pitch.”

Outman, who was acquired by the Rockies earlier this off-season, made 14 appearances with Oakland last year, going 3-5 with a 3.70 ERA. He was 4-1, 3.48, in 12 starts, at the time of his 2009 injury.

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David Laurila: You blew out your arm in the middle of the 2009 season. Would that have happened with your old delivery? Read the rest of this entry »

The 2010 and 2011 drafts were anything but ordinary for Brewers scouting director Bruce Seid. Extenuating circumstances led to Milwaukee not signing its top pick two years ago, and as a result the team had a pair of first-round selections last June. Seid used them on a pair of college arms, right-hander Taylor Jungmann — out of the University of Texas — and Georgia Tech southpaw Jed Bradley. Both agreed to deals, but not until the last minutes leading up to the August deadline.

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Seid, on not signing first-round pick Dylan Covey in 2010: “It was an unfortunate situation. [The diabetes] is something he was unaware of when we drafted him. Before we began negotiating a contract, we had our medical staff do a full blood panel and it came up with some red flags. That was obviously surprising to all of us, but when it was all said and done, I felt good that we were able to help identify this for Dylan and the Covey family. It gave him a chance to deal with, and structure, his life and get back on track in his goal of becoming a major league player.

“We had scouted him to his last game. Just like any high-school pitcher, he had some ups and some downs during the season. The last two or three times that he pitched, we had a national cross-checker there — as well as our east and west coast scouts — and he was back on top of his game.

“The whole situation was tough. It was probably the day before the deadline when I started to get the feeling he wouldn’t be signing, that the whole thing — the health issue — was bigger than all of us. We understood that he wanted to get his health situation under control, and that he had to do what he felt was the best for him and his family. We felt that was honorable.

“The one positive for us was that we got the extra [first-round] pick this past year, and we feel we did pretty well with it. We were able to capitalize on that 15th pick with a guy we feel is an advanced pitcher. He may be able to start at a higher level than where Dylan would have been at this point.” Read the rest of this entry »

The Diamondbacks had two of the first seven picks in last June’s amateur draft, and to say that scouting director Ray Montgomery is excited about those players is an understatement. You can’t blame him. Right-hander Trevor Bauer, who was taken third overall out of UCLA, is already close to big-league ready with the potential to become a perennial all-star. Archie Bradley, a 19-year-old right-hander, came out of Broken Arrow, Okla., with a high-90s fastball and an equally good chance to become a dominant front-line starter.

Montgomery gave scouting reports on both pitchers. He broke down their deliveries, their repertoires and their mindsets.

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Montgomery on Trevor Bauer: “I think you can start with the fact that prior to us re-signing Joe Saunders, Trevor was going into major-league camp with designs on that fifth-starter spot. That says a lot about his talent.

“He’s a four-pitch guy. He’ll tell you that it’s six pitches, but I think that four is what he’ll end up throwing once he moves into the upper echelon. They’re all average to above. He works off his fastball, which is plus-plus at times.

“He throws a plus fastball, a plus-plus curveball, a tick-above-average slider — which is almost a cutter — and a split-changeup. The fifth is kind of a screwball, which he calls a ‘reverse.’ Basically, it’s a changeup with screwball action and he’ll throw it to both right- and left-handed hitters. He throws variations of his pitches, which sort of accounts for what he means when he tells you it’s six. Read the rest of this entry »

It is no coincidence that the top six prospects in the Dodgers organization are pitchers, and that five of them were drafted out of high school. Logan White is in charge of the team’s amateur scouting department, and he might be the best in the business when it comes to analyzing and projecting young hurlers. He is certainly more willing than most to take a prep pitcher in the first round — seven in the last 10 years — with Clayton Kershaw being the shining star of his efforts.

White, whose official title is Assistant GM, Amateur and International Scouting, talked about the decision to draft Kershaw instead of Tim Lincecum, and his more-recent selections of Chris Reed, Zach Lee, Nate Eovaldi, and Allen Webster.

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White on 2010 first-round pick Zach Lee, biomechanical assessments, and signability: “Scouting and signing Zach was a fun time in my career, because we had the ability to go after a player above slot. The fact that he was a five-year payout guy and a dual-sport player certainly helped.

“We had what I call a video-scout draft, in January, that year. We do a lot of work on the biomechanics of the delivery and how the arm works. We match it with what our scouts have seen and come up with a list, as if the draft was that day. When we left that meeting, Zach was one of the top guys on it. Read the rest of this entry »