When it comes to defensive analytics, two things are certain: It remains an inexact science and Baseball Info Solutions is at the forefront. Much of BIS’s groundbreaking work is included in the aptly-named “The Fielding Bible” — volume III is now available — which was edited by John Dewan and Ben Jedlovec.

Dewan was a panelist at this year’s MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, and between sessions he talked about a notable improvement to the Defensive Runs Saved system — and why Derek Jeter costs his team a lot of runs.

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On Derek Jeter and Brendan Ryan: “In the first book, six years ago, Bill James wrote an article comparing Derek Jeter to Adam Everett. He showed that, no matter how you cut it, Derek Jeter couldn’t carry Adam Everett’s glove. At that point, Jeter had two Gold Gloves. Did Bill’s article have any effect? No. Jeter won three more Gold Gloves. My conclusion is that whomever is voting didn’t read his article.

“For the new edition, I decided that we needed to take another shot at comparing Jeter to some of the best shortstops in baseball. Read the rest of this entry »

Had “The Fielding Bible” existed during his playing days, Doug Glanville would have graded out well among outfielders. As it is, the respected ESPN analyst has to settle for being one of 10 panelists who voted on this year‘s awards. Glanville addressed the subject of defensive metrics prior to a Spring Training game in Fort Myers, Fla.

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Glanville, on the Growth of Defensive Metrics: “I’m very excited about what’s happening in the world of defensive metrics. I was a center fielder who was glove guy, so it’s great to see someone trying to measure performance and show value on the defensive side of the ball. I’m excited about the detail with which these metrics are breaking down players’ performance.

“I’m happy with the results I’ve seen. There has been really diligent work done in terms of trying to measure everything, from good fielding plays to range. I’ve looked at a lot of B.I.S. data and it’s very detailed. That said, I think we’re just scratching the surface. As we get much more involved, and look closer, we’re going to find even more jewels in this research. Read the rest of this entry »

Jon “Boog” Sciambi never found himself the subject of a scathing critique on the “Fire Joe Morgan” blog, and for good reason. Few, if any, broadcasters have been as saber-friendly as the former Marlins and Braves, and current ESPN, play-by-play man. Sciambi was in attendance at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference earlier this month, and between sessions he discussed the use of advanced stats in the broadcast booth.

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Sciambi, on giving the audience what they need: “Some broadcasters simply aren’t interested in advanced stats and there are others who are worried that the audience will have their eyes glaze over if they use them. But if you are interested, by and large you’re going to use them. As I’ve said before, it’s kind of like the New York Times and the New York Post. The Post puts on their front page what they feel the readers think is most relevant. The Times puts above the fold, to the right, what they think is most relevant. They print the news. Kim Kardashian is going on the front page of the Post, because it will help sell papers. What happened in Syria is going to go above the fold in the Times. Similarly, I want to deliver ‘the news’ and tell people what is actually happening. Advanced stats help illuminate that.

“I’m a big believer in perception. The mainstream, by and large, dislikes or devalues Three-True-Outcome guys. Read the rest of this entry »

Nick Leyva is heading into his 36th season of professional baseball, but when it comes to positioning an infield, he isn’t as old-school as you might think. The Pirates’ third base coach still uses his instincts and experience — but he also relies on data supplied by Dan Fox, the team’s director of baseball systems development.

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Leyva, on data and defensive alignments: “The game has definitely changed. People talk about being old-school, but I think the numbers and the tools we have now have made our jobs a lot easier. As far as the analytical part of the game goes, we never had those opportunities.

“I remember working for Whitey Herzog. Whitey was a stickler on stats and on positioning players, but he did everything by pencil. When I first started doing this — believe it or not — our defensive alignments were done with colored pencils. I’ll give you an example: Bob Forsch was red. I looked at the sheet and everything that was red was where an individual hit the ball off of him. John Tudor might be brown. Joaquin Andujar might be orange. We did that all ourselves and it was stored in a booklet. Nowadays you can push a button. That definitely makes our jobs easier, but only if you know how to use the data.

“A good thing about doing it by pencil was that when I wrote something down, it stuck in my head. Nowadays you read so much stuff — and go through it so fast — that maybe one little thing, one key note, doesn’t stick in your head. You have to be careful with that. Our guy, Dan Fox, provides us with a lot of information.

“As coaches — and I think Clint [Hurdle] would tell you the same thing — a lot of it still comes down to gut feeling. I set the defense on the infield and I can see how our pitcher is throwing and how a hitter is swinging. I know if he’s hot, and a lot of times you can tell by someone’s swing what he‘s trying to do. You can also throw a lot of the data out the window if you don’t have a pitching staff that can locate and pitch according to how we’re defensing the other team. That said, you have to play the percentages.

“We have pretty lengthy meetings with our advance scouts. We’ve also recently hired Dave Jauss to help us out in that area. We cover everything thoroughly. Our pitching coach starts out by saying, ’This is how we’re going to pitch to [an individual hitter].’ Then I’ll come in and say, ‘This is the way we’re going to defense him in the infield.’ Then Luis Silverio, our outfield guy, will let everyone know how we’re going to defense him in the outfield. I even go to the extreme of what he’ll do with a runner on first base. Does he try to hit that hole? With two strikes, does he shorten up and just try to make contact? A lot of stuff comes into play.

“Having a good shortstop makes your whole infield. It helps to have a guy that can take charge and has been around the league a little bit. This year we’ve got Clint Barmes, who is a student of the game. Clint goes on the computer — to the BATS system that we use — and looks at defense. Based on the way he’s playing — as far as hands and range and true consistency — he’s probably our best infielder right now.

“I run the infield, but [the shortstop] and I need to be on the same page. It’s one of those situations where you have to show respect to your guys who have been around for awhile.

“Neil Walker has a full year under his belt now at second base. Your up-the-middle guys are important. You’ve heard the old cliché about how you’re only as good as you are strong up the middle. You need to have a good catcher, and we picked up Rod Barajas, a veteran guy. We have some veteran guys up the middle now with Neil and Clint, and we obviously have Andrew McCutchen in center field. We’re a lot better this year because of that, our ability to be sharp up the middle.”

Daniel Bard is moving into the Red Sox rotation this summer, and according to the stat-savvy flamethrower, data supports the decision. Bard went 2-9, 3.33 as a set-up man last year, but those aren’t the numbers he looked at when he began exploring a new role. The Boston right-hander explained his thought-process prior to Monday’s game in Fort Myers.

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Daniel Bard: “I’ve always kind of watched the starting pitchers who have success in the big leagues. I watch them on a daily basis, throughout the year, and think, ‘This guy is pretty good; what is he doing that I can’t do?’ That’s what kind of started this whole thing.

“From there I took a little deeper look at the numbers I’ve put up over the past three years. While they’re spread out over a three-year period, they total roughly 200 innings and kind of give a gauge of what is possible over a full season. That’s the way I saw it.

Read the rest of this entry »

The sixth annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference was held in Boston last weekend, and it was bigger and better than ever. Over 2,200 people were in attendance and the list of panelists included team owners, general managers, coaches, and more. According to conference organizers, 73 teams were represented among MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, MLS and EPL. Notably, the Baseball Analytics Panel was moderated by Rob Neyer and consisted of Rocco Baldelli, Scott Boras, Bill James, Jeff Luhnow and Mark Shapiro.

This article won’t be a recap of the conference, but rather part one of a series of conversations I had over the two days. First up is Dean Oliver and in the weeks to come we’ll hear from Baldelli [hitting], John Dewan [defensive metrics], Dan Rosenheck and Adam Jonas [the ramifications of an international draft] and Jon “Boog” Sciambi [advanced stats and broadcasting].

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During the conference’s Box Score Rebooted panel, Oliver suggested that he had a lot of opinions on Wins Above Replacement. He didn’t address them, so I caught up to him later in the day to hear his thoughts. A respected voice in basketball analytics, Oliver is currently the director of production analytics at ESPN.

Dean Oliver on defining replacement level: Read the rest of this entry »

As a rule, scouting directors are among the humblest people you’ll find in professional baseball. Almost to a fault, they’ll deflect credit away from themselves while lauding the efforts of others. Kip Fagg of the Texas Rangers is no exception, but you could hardly blame him if he wanted to take a bow. Under his leadership, the Rangers have signed as many potentially elite players as any team in baseball in recent years.

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Fagg, on 2011 first-round pick Kevin Matthews not being ranked among the top 20 prospects in the system: “I believe it shows the strength of our system and what our scouts have done. We have a good group of guys involved in our scouting and we all see each other’s players. I see a ton of international guys. Under the direction of [Senior Director of Player Personnel] A.J. Preller, [Senior Advisor to the GM, Scouting] Don Welke, [Director of Pro Scouting] Josh Boyd, and [Director of International Scouting] Mike Daly, the whole group has done a tremendous job identifying interesting players that are high-end with upside. It‘s a group effort.”

“In regard to where Kevin, or any of our players, are ranked, it doesn’t alarm me too much or excite me too much. Rankings are subjective and opinions vary on where certain players show up on various lists. I’ve also been doing this for a long time and understand that this is a process. Young kids with Kevin’s upside will take some time to mature and develop. Scouting, and baseball in general, are very humbling experiences, so I try not to get caught up in rankings, especially when the player is only one or two years into the pro game. So much can change in four or five years.”

INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS

On the team’s success in the international market: Read the rest of this entry »

Tom McNamara is playing a major role in the Mariners’ rebuilding efforts. Seattle’s scouting director for each of the past three drafts, McNamara added a franchise cornerstone when he took Dustin Ackley with the second-overall pick in 2009. A year later, he selected a raw high school right-hander named Taijuan Walker — now the team’s top-prospect — 43rd overall. Last June, he boldly nabbed left-hander Danny Hultzen with the second pick of a draft considered to have been one of the deepest in years.

McNamara talked about his scouting philosophy — including what he has learned working under Jack Zduriencik — and the decisions to take Walker and Hultzen.

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On scouting Hultzen: “About two weeks before the draft we set up our board. We’re running around, seeing players all spring, and then we get into that room and start ranking the players. I keep it simple. We take the best guy and Dan fit that bill for us.

“I saw Dan pitch in high school, so we had a history with him. We saw him all three years in college and he improved each year. He was a Friday-night guy at Virginia, in a good conference, and [last year] I got to see him four times against pitchers who went in the first three rounds. We’d had our eyes on him all spring and wanted to make sure we saw him as much as we could.”

On Zduriencik‘s role in the draft: Read the rest of this entry »

Thanks to an infusion of high-profile prospects into the pipeline, there is a light at the end of tunnel in Pittsburgh. Scouting director Greg Smith has brought some elite talent into the system in the past two years, highlighted by last June’s first-overall pick, UCLA right-hander Gerrit Cole, and 2010 second-overall selection, Jameson Taillon. And don’t forget about last year’s second-round pick — the supposedly unsignable Josh Bell — who has as much potential as either Cole or Taillon.

Smith talked about his recent picks, the Pirate’s renewed efforts in the international market and the impact that the new Collective Bargaining Agreement will have on future drafts.

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THE DRAFT AND THE NEW CBA

Smith, on the importance of the last two drafts to the organization: “They’re probably not any more important than the ones prior, but only because we take the position that — as far as the amateur draft market goes — you have to continue that influx of talent. Where you’re picking, and the particular draft class — the landscape each year — only allows you so much opportunity to do that.

“The impact the scouting department has on each organization is that if you have a good draft, it can impact your club for years to come. Conversely, if you have a not-so-good draft, it probably impacts it even more because of the lack of talent coming in.

“There is no question that with us picking high in the last couple of years, a lot more attention has been drawn to it, and rightfully so. It’s something where — especially in the market we’re in — we need to put a lot of emphasis on the acquisition of amateur players.”

On the impact of the draft-related changes in the new CBA: Read the rest of this entry »

When the Indians took Francisco Lindor with the 8th-overall pick in last year’s draft, they brought into the fold — in the opinion of scouting director Brad Grant — “a potential Gold Glove shortstop.” The 18-year-old switch-hitter also profiles well with the bat, which helps explain why Cleveland was willing to draft a high school player in the first round for the first time in a decade. Grant talked about the selection of Lindor, from the scouting process to the tools to the projection.

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Grant on the discovery and pursuit of Francisco Lindor: “We first became aware of Francisco as a 16-year-old on Team USA. By the time he was 17, we were very, very aware of him. That’s what kind of made him a unique case for us: the amount of history we were able to build with him. We had already seen Francisco quite a bit by the time he got to his senior year of high school.

“Our first report on him said that he had the uncanny ability to play shortstop. His instincts and actions were advanced for his age. He had the type of ability where we could say, ’This guy can play shortstop and stay at shortstop.’ A lot of times you hear it said that a guy has a chance to stay at short. With Francisco, we were pretty sure that he could.

Read the rest of this entry »