Tonight’s All-Star game was by far the lowest scoring All-Star game in the past 5 years, but it certainly did make for an exciting Win Probability graph thanks to Michael Young’s 2-out, 2-run triple in the top of the ninth. The National League was very close to pulling out a win, but in the end they still remain without a win in the past decade.

In today’s New York Times, Alan Schwarz takes a look at the All-Star selections by Win Probability Added.

“Most back-and-forths about All-Star selections focus on the player’s longtime all-starness (whatever that means) or, toward the statistical end of the spectrum, his runs batted in, his earned run average, even his on-base percentage plus slugging percentage. But if your image of an All-Star is his season-long contribution to victories, then the more blue-collar W.P.A. — Win Probability Added — could make your next All-Star symposium less, well, cheesy.”

As always, you can find the Win Probability sections here:

Win Probability: Individual Game Graphs & Stats
Win Probability: Team Stats

Tonight, Adam Dunn became the 23rd player in Major League history to hit a grand slam in the bottom of the 9th to win the game by one run. This feat has been dubbed an “Ultimate Grand Slam” and is only slightly more common than say, throwing a perfect game. The last player to hit one of these grand slams was Jason Giambi over 4 years ago on May 17th, 2002.

In terms of Win Probability, the Reds pretty much defied all odds to pull out a win for the ages. Dunn’s grand slam was worth about 90 points of Win Probability Added (WPA) giving his former season total of 30% a nice boost.

In his second consecutive complete game, C.C. Sabathia shutout the twins while striking out 8 and allowing only 6 hits. He’s been brilliant since returning from the D.L. and has allowed only 7 runs in 40 plus innings of work, giving him a 0.92 ERA in his past 5 starts.

The 26 year old is proving that his stellar end to the 2005 season was no fluke and has picked up exactly where he left off last season. His strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) has been in “elite” territory for the past two-plus months he’s been healthy. Even the most devout C.C. skeptic will have trouble debunking his recent success.

My whipping boy in the off season went 3-3 with a home run, 2 stolen bases, and 2 walks last night to raise his batting average to just over .300 for the season. Corey Patterson must have made some significant changes to go from hitting a horrible .215 to a good .306 in just one season, right?

Well, the main thing Patterson has done is actually make contact with the ball. Last season he struck out in 26% of his at-bats and this season he’s only striking out 17% of the time. However, it’s not all good news since he still can’t (or won’t) decipher when pitches are in the strike zone. He chases “bad pitches” over 30% of the time making him one of the 10 most aggresive swingers in baseball. While he has made real improvement and can probably be elevated from “whipping boy” status, I just don’t buy him as a .300 hitter.

Last night Jake Peavy struck out 16 batters in the Padres 3-1 loss to the Braves. The last time anyone struck out 16 or more was way back in September of 2004 when Mark Prior mowed down 16 Reds. This also marked a career high for Peavy and was the 12th ten-plus strikeout performance of his career.

Yawn… another start, another good performance for the soon to be 25 year old. He’s struck out 35 batters in his last 19 innings while issuing just 4 walks. His strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) have now returned to just about where they were last season. Yeah, he’s pretty good.

With an 8 run lead in the 9th, Keith Foulke was brought in for mop-up duty and allowed back-to-back home runs to Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada. He ended up with 4 earned runs on the night raising his ERA from 3.47 to 4.81.

Despite the poor, meaningless outing, Foulke appears to have mostly returned to his 2004-self after battling a knee injury all of last season. He’s striking out about 7 batters per 9 innings and walking just over 1 per 9 innings, giving him a career high strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB). Too bad it’s going to take about 10 scoreless innings for his ERA to return to where it was.

Who would have thought that nearly two months into the season Mike Maroth would have the 5th best ERA in baseball with a 5-2 record to boot? To get right to the point, there’s only one graph you have to look at with Maroth: his left-on-base percentage (LOB%) graph.

Every stat this year except for his ERA and LOB% has shown either no significant change or have been worse than last season. In other words, he’s not really pitching any better than last year, but has been the benefactor of, dare I say, luck? Barring any significant change in his strikeout or walk habits, expect his LOB% to drift back to earth causing his ERA to be more in-line with his career average (4.68).

Last night’s 3-5 performance bumped Ichiro Suzuki’s batting average up to .314 for the season and marks the 15th game on his current hitting streak.

Over the past month or so, he’s seen a drastic rise in the number of groundballs (green) he’s hit, bringing him back to his typical batted-ball profile. Furthermore, he’s been beating out these same grounders for singles over 20% of the time, the highest at any point in his career. With his groundball percentage nearing a career high, it’s doubtful he’ll reach last year’s 15 home run mark, but I don’t see anyone complaining. Looks like this could be one of his “better” years in the average department.

After going homer-less in his previous 41 plate appearances, Aramis Ramirez hit home runs in his first two at-bats in the Cubs 7-4 victory of the White Sox. The two dingers resulted in a 26.6 Win Probability Added (WPA); his largest contribution on the season.

While struggling through back injuries he batted a horrible .197 in April, but is hitting a much better (though mediocre) .263 this month. Last season he had a scorching June compiling 35 hits for a .363 average including 7 home runs. Oddly enough, it appears he’s seeing the ball better than ever as shown by the dramatic increase in his walk-to-strikeout ratio (BB/K). Assuming his back troubles are over, it looks like he’s primed for a serious hot streak.