Tonight’s All-Star game was by far the lowest scoring All-Star game in the past 5 years, but it certainly did make for an exciting Win Probability graph thanks to Michael Young’s 2-out, 2-run triple in the top of the ninth. The National League was very close to pulling out a win, but in the end they still remain without a win in the past decade.
| Away |
|
Home |
|
| M Rivera |
21.9 |
| S Kazmir |
5.2 |
| B Zito |
5.2 |
| J Santana |
4.9 |
| B Ryan |
3.5 |
| K Rogers |
0.0 |
| R Halladay |
-0.9 |
|
|
| T Gordon |
12.7 |
| D Turnbow |
10.0 |
| B Fuentes |
8.3 |
| B Arroyo |
7.3 |
| B Webb |
6.5 |
| R Oswalt |
5.7 |
| B Penny |
0.0 |
| T Hoffman |
-60.7 |
|
|
|
|
| M Young |
59.1 |
| P Konerko |
11.1 |
| V Guerrero |
6.7 |
| G Matthews Jr |
6.1 |
| V Wells |
0.6 |
| M Ordonez |
-1.9 |
| T Glaus |
-2.4 |
| D Ortiz |
-3.2 |
| A Rodriguez |
-3.8 |
| I Rodriguez |
-3.9 |
| J Thome |
-4.9 |
| M Tejada |
-5.8 |
| M Loretta |
-5.9 |
| I Suzuki |
-6.2 |
| D Jeter |
-6.4 |
| J Dye |
-7.7 |
| J Mauer |
-9.3 |
| G Sizemore |
-12.0 |
|
|
| C Beltran |
17.5 |
| D Wright |
4.4 |
| A Soriano |
2.2 |
| L Berkman |
2.1 |
| C Utley |
0.3 |
| D Eckstein |
-1.2 |
| B McCann |
-1.5 |
| J Bay |
-2.1 |
| M Holliday |
-4.6 |
| A Pujols |
-5.7 |
| P Lo Duca |
-7.2 |
| R Howard |
-7.5 |
| E Renteria |
-9.7 |
| F Sanchez |
-11.8 |
| C Lee |
-15.0 |
|
When Beltran singled and Soriano got thrown out at the plate, how is that scored? Does Beltran get credit for making it 1-3 one out, then Soriano get penalized for making it man on second two out? Or does the whole play of man on second 1 out to man on second 2 out get credited to Beltran? It’s not clear from the graph.
Looking at the play:
>>Carlos Beltran singled to center. On the play, Alfonso Soriano was thrown out at home, center to catcher. Runner on second with two outs and Albert Pujols due up.<< The way it currently works is this would all be credited to Carlos Beltran. Typically, anything that happens after the ball is hit into play I credit to the batter. Beltran did get credit for his stolen base, and scoring on the wild-pitch.
Thanks!
Thanks for the ASG data — I was curious to get your thoughts on whether “stakeholders” — players most likely to play in the playoffs — might’ve performed better during the game. I used your data in an effort to determine it on our blog.
Pip,
I saw your study earlier today and desite it being “full of holes” as mentioned and “not proving anything”, I thought it was pretty cool. I’ve never been a fan of the All-Star game counting and this seems like a perfect example of why it shouldn’t.
David,
Great graphs! I love the WPA and LI additions to the site – they’re great. I’ve never been a fan of the counting either.
Oh, and have you been recieving my emails? haha
-Mike