Author Archive

From Romance to Marriage: Cuddyer to Colorado

Amid all the joy around the news that Michael Cuddyer and the Rockies have (reportedly) finally consummated their off-season romance with a three-year contract worth $31.5 million, there is also a keen sense of loss. What will fill the void left in our hearts? What will replace the excitment we have felt over the past few weeks while waiting for hourly updates full of will-they-don’t-they rumors about the former Twin and his high-altitude suitors? All we can really do is move on to cold, heartless analysis: what the Rockies are paying, whether he is likely to be worth it (in terms of on-field performance, there is no doubt this is a win in bromantic terms), how this reflects on the market so far for free-agent outfielders, and how this might play out for the Rockies’ roster.

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Does Jason Varitek Have Anything Left to Offer?

By signing Kelly Shoppach the Boston Red Sox seem to be indicating that the Jason Varitek Era is at an end. Varitek was already a part-time player in Boston, mostly serving as the lesser half of a catcher platoon with fellow switch-hitter Jarrod Saltalamacchia in 2011. Saltalamacchia is sticking around, and Shoppach is also the right-handed half of a platoon. It appears that there is not really a reason for Varitek, who will turn 40 in April, to come back to Boston as a catcher (although apparently there is still some ambiguity about that), even if Ryan Lavarnway was not in waiting. Even a .300 wOBA hitter can be a useful catcher. Assuming Varitek still wants to play somewhere, does he have anything to offer any team at this point?

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Is Run Estimation Relevant to Free Agency?

Sometimes there seem to be two separate branches of saber-oriented blogging: one that uses sabermetric tools to analyze current events (player transactions, in-game strategic choices, etc.), and another which focuses on more theoretical issues (e.g., specific hitting and pitching metrics). Obviously, the latter is supposed to ground the former, but there still seems to be something of a disconnect between the two levels in popular perception. I say this because I was recently part of a discussion in which some were pointing out the superiority of linear weights run estimators for individual hitters to the approach of Bill James’ Runs Created. Someone then made a comment to the effect that this was simply a nit-picking preference for a “pet metric” that really did not make that much of a practical difference.

Sabermetrics is far from being a “complete” science in any area. Debates about how best to measure pitching and fielding are obvious examples of this. With respect to run estimators, there is a greater level of consensus. However, because of the progress (at least relative to pitching and hitting) that has been made with run estimators for offense, that also means there is less of a difference between the metrics. However, it does make a difference. Rather than arguing for one approach to run estimation over another, I want to simply look at a few different free agents from the current off-season to see what sort of difference using one simple run estimator rather than another would make on a practical level.

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Post-Pujols Cardinals Re-Sign Furcal

While a substantial portion of St. Louis Cardinals fans may still be in shock over the loss of Albert Pujols to the Angels, the front office has not stopped working. The team has reportedly signed shortstop Rafael Furcal (who recently turned 34) to a two-year, $14 million contract (pending a physical), marking a willingness to move on not only from the Pujols Era, but also from the Reign of Ryan Theriot. Furcal hit poorly in 2011, and has had trouble staying healthy in recent seasons. However, given the situation the Cardinals find themselves with respect to both contention and other internal candidates, the signing makes sense for them.

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Possible Ripples from Ramon Santiago’s Return

In a move sure to send major shock waves through the free agent market, the Detroit Tigers have reportedly re-signed Ramon Santiago to a two-year, $4.2 million contract. The city of Detroit has declared a municipal holiday to celebrate the return of their long-time utility infielder…. But seriously, folks, while this looks (and in some way is) like a contending team making a sound-if-unexceptional decision to bring back a helpful utility player, this is a pretty interesting signing. It is not just that Santiago is better than he’s being paid to be. Bringing back Santiago also opens up possibilities for the Tigers this off-season if they are willing to explore them.

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Seth Smith’s Platoon Split as a Crisitunity

Despite the prestige of being 2011’s Most Average Player, Colorado Rockies outfielder Seth Smith has been the subject of trade rumors since the end of the season. Trading Smith might be a good idea for the Rockies if it enables them to fill a hole elsewhere, but Smith himself is better than one might think. He is not a great fielder, although it he is not horrible (the Rockies gave Brad Hawpe more than 6000 innings in the outfield, after all). What seems to bother many people is the large platoon split that the left-handed-hitting Smith has shown in his major-league career. However, Smith’s splits are at least as much of a potential opportunity as they are an impending crisis. It is, as a wise man might say, a crisitunity.

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I Got Mine: the Union, the Draft, and Jeff Francoeur

Prior the announcement of new Collective Bargaining Agreement yesterday, many thought that one sticking point might be “hard slotting” of signing bonuses for draftees. While hard slotting did not literally happen, the system of penalties for teams going over the “draft cap” looks like it will have the same intended effect. I am far from an expert on the draft, but what is particularly interesting to me is that some seemed to have been surprised that the union would agree to this sort of provision. A bit of reflection makes it clear why the union not only let it pass, but was probably in favor of it. Amateurs, both domestic and international, are not members of the union. Money that is going to those non-members is not going to union members. Whether or not the new CBA is good for baseball overall (I tend to agree with those who think it is not) is one issue, the union’s self-interest is another. Rather than tackling it as a whole, I want to take at the look at the latter by focusing on some interesting quotes from a long-time internet favorite: Jeff Francoeur.

It is a bit uncomfortable to “pick on” Francoeur. It is not just that I am not worried about beating a dead horse. I have read and heard directly from people, people who are far from being fans of Francoeur’s game, that he really is a genuinely “good guy” (maybe it is a front for the press, but if so, he maintains it quite consistently). He exceeded all reasonable expectations to have a good 2011 season for the Royals — something for which both he and the Royals front office that signed him should be commended (in retrospect, at least). I am not a fan of the contract extension he received, but it was not awful.

However, none of that is at issue here. What piqued my interest in Francoeur last night was coming across this August 2011 article from the Kansas City Star about the (then-upcoming) CBA negotiations. The article rightly notes that the lauded Kansas City minor league system, which received a fair bit of mainstream national attention this season with the graduation of players like Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, was largely built not only on big draft day bonuses for players like Hosmer and Moustakas, but also over-slot bonuses for players who dropped down because of sign-ability concerns such as Wil Myers. The article discusses the well-known, record-setting draft spending in recent years of rebuilding small-market franchises such as the Royals and Pirates, and how those franchises were “overspending” on the draft in order to make up for their relative inability to compete in free agency. It also has interesting quotes from Royals assistant general manager J. J. Picollo, who claims that the Royals have no problems with spending big in the draft, and general manager Dayton Moore, who says that while the Royals like the (now former) system, the team will have to adapt its strategies to the new context. Scott Boras is quoted saying what you would expect him to say: that spending restrictions are unfair because, among other things, they treat every draft class as equal, even though that obviously is not the case (simply compare the 2010 draft to the 2011 draft).

This article also contains statements such as this:

The general view among industry insiders is that the players’ union will staunchly oppose any “hard slotting” in the draft, rebelling against any policy that could be considered a salary cap — even if that cap is relegated to players who have never played an inning of professional baseball.

While we do not know exactly what happened during the negotiations, it seems fair to infer from the results that the union probably did not “staunchly oppose” the draft spending restrictions. Indeed, there are indications from the article in the Star that point in the opposite direction. While agents such as Boras have an obvious interest in not having draft spending restrictions, current major league players were not at one with agents like Boras in this case, as this quote from a member of the player’s association committee indicates:

“My problem sometimes,” Royals outfielder Jeff Francoeur says, “is that you get a first-round pick, and that’s a lot of money to pay a high school kid who’s 18, and you don’t exactly know what you’re always gonna get. But at the same time, that’s the great thing about baseball — the free-agent market — you can get what you can get.”

Francoeur is serving on a players’ association committee as both sides prepare for negotiation, and he’s thought about the options. Maybe you move the signing deadline up to the beginning of July, he says, and that would lessen the leverage of draft picks and get them out playing earlier.

This much is certain: The multimillion dollar signing bonuses are catching the eye of veteran major-leaguers.

“I think it’s just getting out of control now,” Francoeur says.

Were things “out of control” prior to the new CBA? It depends on your point of view, I suppose. From Francoeur’s current perspective as a journeyman veteran, they may have been. The Royals convinced local boy (picked fifth overall in the 2011 draft) Bubba Starling to sign with them rather than go to the University Nebraska to play football by giving him a $7.5 million bonus. That is slightly more than the guaranteed annual salary players like Francoeur and Clint Barmes will get in their recent two-year deals. Maybe Starling’s sounded a bit familiar to Francoeur. After all, in 2002, there was a certain first-rounder the Braves wanted to sign. He was a local, two-sport star who had a commitment to play football at Clemson. The threat of leaving for college football probably helped him out a bit. Although he was only drafted 23rd, he received a $2.2 million signing bonus (a record bonus for the Braves until they signed number seven pick Mike Minor in 2009). Whatever happened to that guy?

Of course, there is a difference between the fifth spot (where Starling was picked this season) and the 23rd, where Francoeur was picked in 2002. But Francoeur as an amateur did embody a couple properties of the sort of players that people are concerned are at issue with the new CBA: the multi-sport high athlete, and the player getting more than one might expect at a lower spot because he slipped due to a college commitment. One player is not a full study, but this does not indicate that things are now “out of control.” Francoeur received a $2.2 million bonus to sign with the Braves in 2002. In 2011, the 23rd overall pick was Alex Meyer, who received a $2 million bonus to sign with the Nationals. In fact, by my quick count there were ten players picked above the 23rd spot in the 2011 draft who received smaller bonuses than Francoeur did ten years ago. One might argue that the 2002 draft was “deeper,” (I am not making that argument, just to be clear) but that would grant Boras’s point about restrictions on draft spending not allowing for flexibility to account for such things.

This is not meant to call Francoeur out as a hypocrite (at least not any more than most of us), a bad person, or anything like that. His comments from August do put certain things into an interesting perspective, such as this anecdote from Lee Judge (whose Judging the Royals blog and accompanying Ron Polk points system deserve their own post or series of posts on NotGraphs) about Francoeur asking the team to take down a clubhouse picture of some of the minor league prospects. Judge took this as an example of Francoeur showing veteran leadership. Will McDonald pointed out at the time what is apparent after reading the August article: Francoeur’s request could just as easily be interpreted as an indication of unenlightened self-interest.

[Judge also writes: “If you want to know how to approach the game, teammates or life, watch Jeff Francoeur.” I am not making this up.]

I would not want anyone to take away from this that I am anti-MLBPA or anti-labor in general. The opposite is closer to the truth. However, I do think that Francoeur’s attitude towards “out of control” signing bonuses towards draftees (who, like their international compatriots, had their future fates altered without being party to the negotiations) likely reflects that of his fellow MLBPA members: I got mine, and now I want it again. That attitude is far from commendable, but it is sadly understandable.


The Case for Jose Bautista

Major League Baseball will announce the winner of the 2011 American League Most Valuable Player this afternoon. While sabermetric tools such as Wins Above Replacement are very helpful, and perhaps even necessary for sorting out which players have been the most valuable, they are not necessarily sufficient by themselves for deciding such issues. As I discussed in an earlier (no-longer-so-“official”) post on using WAR to help determine the MVP, WAR and its cousins should start conversations about the MVP, not end them. However, this post is less about the general framework and more about why I think, despite the presence of other viable candidates just as Jacoby Ellsbury and maybe Justin Verlander, Jose Bautista is my choice for the American League’s Most Valuable Player of 2011.

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Rule Change Friday: Pickoff Throws

People have been complaining about the length of ballgames for years. While batters stepping out of the box presents its own irritations, one thing that can really get a crowd angry is excessive throwing to first base to hold the runner or pick him off. Years ago, Bill James (and I’m sure he wasn’t the only one) proposed a solution to this “problem,” and I am curious to see what people think today.

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Making Reasonable Comparisons

The Rookies of the Year will be announced about the time this post goes up, or shortly thereafter. I do not know who will win, but there are a number of good candidates. Among those candidates should be a pair of 21 year-old first basemen: Kansas City’s Eric Hosmer and Atlanta’s Freddie Freeman. Controversial defensive metrics aside, their 2011 hitting performances (114 wRC+ for Hosmer, 118 wRC+ for Freeman) have rightly earned them recognition. Apart the passing glory of the Rookie of the Year award, what is most exciting for fans of both players is how such performances at such a young age bode for their respective futures in the game. While those numbers are unspectacular for first basemen, to have done so at an age when most of their peers were in college or the minors is most promising. This leads to columns like this, which compares Hosmer’s 2011 performance with that of other 21-year olds who hit as well or better. It is an impressive list, of course, and the general point is sound. But by only comparing Hosmer with players who hit as well or better at 21 it also skews the perception of Hosmer’s season. It makes Hosmer’s 2011 seem closer to Frank Robinson‘s age 21 performance (139 wRC+ in 1957) while leaving out that it is much closer to Jim Fregosi’s 1963 (111 wRC+). That should not be taken to demean Hosmer or Freeman. However, looking at more reasonable comparisons can leave optimistic impressions without being unrealistic.

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