I have done a number of posts since end of the 2010 season ranking players and plays based on stats not normally given prominence. But I haven’t yet done one of my “classics”: the season’s “King of Little Things.” As the name implies, it is an attempt to quantify a player’s contribution with regard to the game state beyond average run expectancy. Who were the best and worst in 2010?
I wrote about the most effective bunts of 2010 (according to Win Probability Added [WPA]) in a previous post. I had planned on leaving it at that, but one commenter asked about the worst bunts of the season. Despite my goal of trying to be “more positive” this year, I can’t say no to my millions of adoring fans. So, along with a couple responses to comments, here are the five worst bunts of the 2010 regular season.
Most readers of FanGraphs probably understand that as a strategy for scoring runs, bunting is usually a bad idea. There are times when bunting is appropriate: whether for purposes of “game theory” (getting the infield to play further in) or, in certain game situations, to play for the win rather than for overall run expectancy. In other words, while bunts are mostly a bad idea for increasing run expectancy, they can sometimes be a good idea for increasing Win Probability (WPA).
Even with that in mind, it doesn’t seem that teams are exactly getting the message (case in point). In 2010, our data shows that there were 2988 bunts executed, but only 823 of them (just under 28%) resulted in a positive WPA. That number is probably a bit skewed because it doesn’t include bunt attempts that fail (fouled off, etc.), but it does give the general idea. All that being said, bunts do sometimes “work,” so let’s take a look at the 2010’s five most successful bunts as measured by WPA.
When Adam Dunn signed with the White Sox earlier this offseason for four years and $56 million dollars, I generally agreed with those like Dave Cameron who saw it as perhaps a slight overpayment, but reasonable given that Dunn will be moving to a park that favors his prodigious power and to a team and league that will finally allow him to spend most of his time at his natural position — designated hitter. I generally still agree with the assessment. However, there are some things worth watching as Dunn begins his in Chicago in relation to his shift in league, position, park, and his recent plate approach. What better to write about on Hall of Fame Announcement Day than a player who signed more than a month ago?
This post has been in the back of my mind for a while, and I couldn’t make it go away. And what better time to dust it off than for my first post of 2011? Although I’m just a hobbyist with too much time on my hands (I still can’t believe the Daves fell for it), I feel some responsibility to own up to when I’ve been wrong. Naturally, a full listing of stuff like that would go on far too long for a blog posting. Moreover, when dealing with stuff like statistical projections, one expects to turn out to be wrong a lot of the time (the trick is to be right, or at least “on the right side” a bit more often than not). Therefore, I’m not going to focus on posts I did that relied on projections that turned out to be wrong, but rather on three particular posts that I think were flawed in ways that I should have seen at the time. In that way, I can do more than just say “well, I guess that projection was way off” and actually take some lessons away from my mistakes.
In a continuation of the free-agency bonanza for players in general and relievers in particular, Matt Guerrier is reportedly going to be signing a three-year, $12 million dollar contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Three years for a middle reliever in his thirties seems to be a bit much, but in the case of Guerrier, what is particularly interesting is the great difference between his defense-independent pitching statistics and his ERA/RA.
It’s the most wonderful time of the year! That’s right, it is time for the hardcore fans who visit this site to show they can do better than some dumb computer program and project what players will do in 2011. The projection targets offered for your consideration this afternoon are three outfielders facing different sorts of questions going into the next season: the Tigers’ Austin Jackson, the Dodgers’ Matt Kemp, and the Orioles’ Nick Markakis.
Late last night (or very early this morning), Jerry Crasnick reported that the Cincinnati Reds signed emerging star Jay Bruce to a six-year, $51 million dollar contract with a club option for a seventh year. While many casual fans first may have noticed Bruce due to a memorable defensive gaffe in the playoffs, the 24 year-old outfielder had the great season in 2010 that Reds fans had expected from him for a while. Deals like these with young, cost-controlled players almost always look good for the team, so let’s see just how good.
The Baltimore Orioles continue to make over their infield by trading a couple of relievers (Brett Jacobson and Jim Hoey) to the Minnesota Twins for shortstop J. J. Hardy and seat-moistener Brendan Harris.
Let’s see: former Atlanta prospect from the early 2000s, terrible plate discipline, was last decent more than three seasons ago, strong arm, questionable range, reportedly a “good clubhouse guy” despite whining about losing playing time while playing horribly, a right-handed PowerBat (TM) without much power, platoon issues… That’s right, Jeff Francoeur has finally joined Dayton Moore’s Kansas City Royals. Like there was ever any doubt.