Despite having to face the Phillies’ annoyingly-nicknamed (but awesomely talented) “H2O” pitching trio consisting of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels, the widely-panned San Francisco Giants find themselves up two games to one going into tonight’s NLCS Game Four. Much of this is due, of course, to the Giants also having marched three pretty good starters to the mound so far in Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez, and Matt Cain. Despite Cody Ross’s best efforts, runs have been generally difficult to come by in this series, and it is easy to understand why. Tonight’s starters are less exalted than their predecessors, but given the Giants’ talent level and the Phillies’ offensive drought, a high-scoring game isn’t exactly “due.”

Earlier this afternoon Carson gave a brief preview of the staring pitchers, and he is correct to note the striking similarities in many aspects of the Giants’ Game 4 starter Madison Bumgarner and his Phillies counterpart Joe Blanton. Both have relatively neutral batted-ball profiles, strike out about an average number of hitters, and avoid walks. While some will tout Blanton’s “experience” as an advantage for the Phillies, Bumgarner didn’t exactly seem overwhelmed with nerves in his impressive start against the Braves in the divisional round. The Phillies’ biggest area of superiority in this matchup was supposed to be their offense, but the Giants have kept Philadelphia’s hitters in check so far. It will be interesting to see how the southpaw Bumgarner fares against the Phillies left-handed hitters. Although Chase Utley has displayed a slight “reverse” platoon split over the years, Ryan Howard has fared quite badly against lefties, and after reverse splits in 2008 and 2009, Raul Ibanez has regressed to a traditional split as well. Although Jayson Werth has hit both righties and lefties well this season, for his career he’s been a real lefty-killer.

On the other side of the ball, while the Giants offense has done enough to get them this far in the playoffs, as one would expect from the regular season, they haven’t been very impressive, notwithstanding the serendipitous pick-up of Ross. Bruce Bochy sat the slumping Andre Torres in favor of Aaron Rowand last night, and while the Giants won the game, San Francisco’s fans have to hope that Bochy will weigh Torres’ performance over the last season-and-a-half heavier than the last few games and reinsert him in the lineup (lineups are not available yet as I write), given that Rowand will be without the platoon advantage tonight, not to mention Torres’ superior defense (assuming Torres is in good health). If the Giants insist on starting Edgar Renteria tonight, they can help their own cause by not hitting him first. Even better would be starting the buried Pablo Sandoval — who, even after his poor 2010 at the plate, can still outhit Zombie Renteria — if Juan Uribe is able to play shortstop. But hey, they won last night, and Bochy even resisted the urge to intentionally walk anyone (progress!), so I guess it’s working for them so far.

In spite of the fairly-even pitching matchup, in terms of “true talent,” the Phillies’ offense is better than the Giants’. But this series so far is just one more reminder that while true talent is what we project, pennants are awarded on the basis of observed performance, and the Giants have to feel good about their position going into tonight’s game.

Tonight’s ALCS Game One between the Yankees and Rangers features two left-handed starters in CC Sabathia and C.J. Wilson. Later in the series, each team will also march out southpaws Andy Pettitte and Cliff Lee. While the number of left-handed starters in this series is often mentioned, it often isn’t made clear how much of a difference it will make for particular hitters (beyond all four of those pitchers between being either good or great). With that in mind, let’s take a look at the platoon skills of some of the hitters involved in this series. A more detailed analysis would take into account both the hitter and the pitcher’s expected platoon performance, but for the sake of space and simplicity, I’ll simply deal with a few hitters. You can read this for more details — in short, a player’s platoon skill is almost always closer to the average for the population to which he belongs than it appears. For the overall projection, I’ll use wOBA as derived from CHONE’s August 28 hitter projections.

Yankees’ left-handed hitting centerfielder Curtis Granderson has well-konwn struggles with southpaws. In his major league career, he has a .378 wOBA versus RHP, and a sub-Kendall .274 versus LHP — almost a 30% split over 859 PA vs. LHP. Even after regression, the split is still huge. CHONE projects a .353 overall wOBA, so I estimate Granderson’s skill versus RHP at .369, and versus LHP at .305. Some will point to his offensive surge in late in the season or his hits versus lefties in the ALDS, but I’ll stick with the preponderance of the data. Joe Girardi has sometimes done something more teams should do with players with big platoon splits, putting Granderson near the bottom of the order versus lefties and further up versus right-handed hitters.

Brett Gardner actually has a pretty small observed split, but only 262 career PA versus LHP. Given his .340 wOBA CHONE projection, his estimated skill vs. RHP is .347, and .321 vs. LHP. It’s a difference, but he’s not helpless against lefties.

The likely 2010 American MVP, Josh Hamilton, has a pretty big observed split, but that isn’t all that uncommon for outstanding hitters, especially lefties. After regression, given his CHONE projection of a .386 wOBA, we’d expect him to have a .400 wOBA versus RHP, and .355 versus LHP. The Yankees should definitely be looking to Boone Logan in later innings versus Hamilton, but thouhg Hamilton is not a great hitter versus lefties, is still pretty good against them.

Each team also features a right-handed platoon guy. It’s a sad commentary on sports media today that all the attention paid to Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira’s pasts with the Rangers has caused us to forget that this is also the Battle for the Soul of Marcus Thames. Thames is well known as a lefty-masher, but since his .344 wOBA projection is based so heavily on being platooned a good deal of the time, his projection versus LHP is only for a .357 wOBA — good, but not dominating. He isn’t worthless versus RHP, with a projected .334 wOBA against them, but Lance Berkman should be getting most of those plate appearances.

Speaking of the media overlooking players, perhaps no more shameful example can be found than in the general absence of stories about Jeff Francoeur’s 100th home run. Francouer is often said to be a good platoon guy despite everything, but, as has been discussed before, his usefulness there tends to be exaggerated, perhaps because he’s so horrible versus RHP (.302 career wOBA) that his merely decent (for a corner outfielder) performance versus LHP (.346 wOBA) seems more impressive than it actually is. CHONE sees him as a bad hitter — .315 wOBA, which comes out to a useless .307 wOBA versus RHP, and a .334 wOBA versus LHP… about what we estimated Thames’ skill to be against RHP.

Although Rick Ankiel‘s extra-inning homer and Troy Glaus’s (!) defensive wizardry in Game Two already cemented this series as the most “interesting” of the 2010 playoffs’ divisional round, Game Three, a.k.a. the ‘Brooks Conrad Game’ managed to take things to a new level of surreality. Up two games to one, San Francisco is back in control, but given how this series has played out so far, the Giants shouldn’t get too comfortable.

While there were rumors that the Giants’ Game Four starter would be Tim Lincecum on three days rest, the team has decided to go with rookie Madison Bumgarner. It makes sense: the Giants aren’t facing elimination, and given Lincecum’s value to the franchise, if either Lincecum or the Giants’ staff isn’t comfortable with him pitching on short rest for whatever reason that should settle it.

Bumgarner himself isn’t exactly a slouch. Despite concerns about his drop in velocity during 2009, he seemed get it back in 2010, and he fared well in his 18 major-league starts for the Giants this season (3.00 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 4.03 xFIP, 3.59 tERA, 2.0 WAR in 111 innings). Bumgarner’s major league strikeout rate is only average-ish so far, but combined with a low walk rate, he’s been an above-average starter for San Francisco. Bumgarner isn’t a ground ball machine, but he isn’t a flyball pitcher, either, so home runs shouldn’t be a particular problem for him. Of specific interest for the game tonight is that Bumgarner does not show an especially large platoon split (albeit in a very small sample), so he won’t be at a marked disadvantage against the Braves right-handed hitters. Moreover, platoon splits are a two-way street — both pitchers and hitters have their own “personal” platoon skillls — and while Atlanta rookie Jason Heyward has a small sample and catcher Brian McCann has a smaller-than-usual-for-lefties platoon split, Bumgarner will have a platoon advantage on the two best hitters in the Braves’ injury-ravaged lineup. If Bumgarner does get into trouble, the whole San Francisco bullpen should be available due to an off-day on Tuesday. Look for plenty of commentary on Bumgarner’s lack of playoff experience given the way absence of such experience recently has been a big problem for pitchers like Lincecum and Roy Halladay.

The Giants’ offense is supposed their biggest edge over the Braves, but that edge hasn’t manifested itself in the series so far, mostly because the Braves have excellent pitchers of their own. With the Braves facing elimination, they shouldn’t hesitate to empty their bullpen, and Bobby Cox usually doesn’t. Until last night, the Braves ‘pen had been pretty much untouchable in the series (and even last night the Giants needed some “help”), and their regular-season numbers bear that out. With Billy Wagner injured, the Braves have put Takashi Saito back on the roster, giving them a lot of situational flexibility. [An an aside: I’ve noticed that some seem to think that Bobby Cox made the wrong call in bringing in Michael Dunn to face Aubrey Huff last night because Huff has hit lefties and righties equally well this season. I won’t go over the specific calculations in detail. Although in 188 plate appearances against southpaws in 2010 Huff hit them almost as well as northpaws, from 2002 to the present he has had 1672 plate appearances against lefties in which he displayed a roughly average split. Moreover, Dunn’s platoon skill factors in as well, and he has been devastating against lefties. Cox’s decision regarding the platoon aspect of the situation was right on.] And that is before even considering Braves’ starter Derek Lowe, who can still pitch, as he displayed in holding the Giants to one run in Game One. Lowe has had success when pitching on short rest before, and again, the Braves have a great bullpen to call on if he gets into trouble or if they need to pinch-hit for him early.

The Giants have good reason to feel confident about their situation. Despite being on the road, they only have to win one of the next two games (and if a second game is necessary it will be at home with their ace on the mound), and despite their general offensive ineffectiveness so far they are still better off than the decimated Braves lineup. However, the Braves’ own good pitchers have shown that they are able to keep the Giants from pulling away, and given how the last two games have ended, it would be surprising if there weren’t more surprises that took this series down to its final out.

After Friday night’s surreal game in San Francisco, the Giants might be ready for a change of scenery. However, the trip to Atlanta won’t be a leisurely visit. The Giants managed to knock Tommy Hanson around well enough in Game Two before things went haywire, but they were handled fairly well in Game One by Derek Lowe, needing an awesome performance from their ace Tim Lincecum to get the victory. Neither of those games have any significant predictive relevance for this one, of course, but seeing another groundball machine inTim Hudson (whose stats beyond ERA are remarkably similar to Lowe’s this season) on the mound won’t be much cause for comfort. Well, maybe a bit — the more groundballs the Giants put into play, the more likely Brooks Conrad is to have to try and field them.

The Giants aren’t bereft of their own pitching talent, sending Jonathan Sanchez out on Sunday against Hudson. On the surface, their numbers are somewhat similar. Each has an ERA about a run better than his xFIP, although neither has a career line that shows the ability to consistently “outpitch” his xFIP significantly. Each has a 2010 WAR just over 2.5 and a tERA under 4. Their actual methods are quite different, however. Hudson is a right-handed groundballer with a below average strikeout rake who doesn’t walk many; Sanchez is a left-handed flyballer with a great strikeout rate who has a problem with walks. CHONE’s August update does not see them as overall equals, projecting Sanchez’s context-neutral ERA (nERA) at 4.42 and Hudson’s at 3.95; do with that what you will.

While the series has evened up and Altanta has homefield advantage for the moment (however you want to quantify that), the Giants still have the superior offense. While some have raised the concern that the Giants are too right-handed on offense given Atlanta’s right-handed top three pitchers, this might be a bit overblown. True, of the Giants good hitters, only Aubrey Huff is left-handed. However, of their switch hitters, Andres Torres has a close-to even platoon split for his career, Pablo Sandoval (one bad year doesn’t make him a bad hitter) hits righties better than lefties, and Buster Posey (whose platoon sample in the majors is too small to say either way) has hit everyone well so far in his brief MLB sojourn. Right-handed hitter Pat Burrell has a smaller-than-average observed platoon split for his career, and curiously enough, a reverse split in both 2009 and 2010, although the sample size should dissuade one from overemphasizing those two seasons. Of greater concern for Giants’ hitters than platoon issues will be how to deal with the Braves’ relievers, as the Atlanta bullpen has been every bit as good and deep as advertised. Even with Takaski Saito and now Billy Wagner out, they have enough arms to go the bullpen early if necessary, and given enough room to work, can set up tough matchups for hitters.

As a flyball pitcher, Sanchez is a good fit for the Giants’ home park, which lowers home run rates. Turner Field isn’t a hitter’s haven, but it isn’t as forgiving to pitchers regarding the long ball. However, that issue isn’t quite as worrisome as it might be, as the left-handed throwing Sanchez will have the platoon advantage against the Braves’ best hitters — Jason Heyward, Brian McCann, and, of course, feared Giantslayer Rick Ankiel (ahem).

As a baseball fan without a vested rooting interest in this match up, here’s hoping Game Three offers as many surprising twists as its predecessor, whomever comes out on top.

Heard this: Rick Ankiel prolly made himself another $5-$7 million dollars last night. This jibes with what anonymous scouts are saying — the energy and competitiveness of this series has to be largely credited to Ankiel and the other former Royals prominently involved.

That probably makes about as much sense as anything else after last night’s 5-4, extra-inning victory by the Braves over the Giants. Going into the game, Matt Cain and Tommy Hanson seemed to be quite evenly matched when looking at their current season stats and their recent CHONE projections (3.88 projected nERA for Cain, 3.86 for Hanson). The game didn’t play out that way. Pat Burrell opened the scoring with a three-run shot off of Hanson in the first that was good for about a 25 percent jump in win expectancy. Given the way Cain was dealing, it looked like that homer was going to be more than enough even without the additional run driven in by Cain himself in the second. Other than the home run, Hanson wasn’t horrible, although he wasn’t impressive either, and understandably got pulled for a pinch-hitter in the top of the fifth. Cain finally gave up a run in the sixth inning, but for the most part had the Braves easily in hand when he was pulled with two outs in the seventh. Up to that point, the Braves looked mostly helpless at the plate, and the Giants’ Win Expectancy was up at around 95% despite being shut down by an impressive stream of Atlanta relievers for the second straight game.

The game began to unravel for the Giants in the eighth. It is difficult to blame it on their tactics, however. Sergio Romo came in to pitch in the top of the eighth and promptly gave up singles to Derek Lee and McCann. Romo was still a good choice, as he is a dominating strikeout pitcher, avoids walks well, and his flyball tendencies are offset by the nature of the park. Bruce Bochy also made the right call to bring in closer Brian Wilson for a two-inning save at this point. The leverage index (LI) was as higher than it had been all game to that point — Wilson’s pLI for the game ended up being 2.59 — and that is the best way to maximize a relief ace’s outings. It didn’t work out, but it was the right decision. The Giants’ infield didn’t do Wilson any favors, as a throwing error by third baseman Pablo Sandoval allowed Melky Cabrera, one-third (along with Nate McLouth and Rick Ankiel [more on him in a minute…]) of the Braves’ Disaster Trio to reach first, scoring Lee. After a sacrifice bunt, the Braves tied the game on an Alex Gonzalez double that drove in two more runs. Wilson finished the inning and retired the side in the ninth, as well.

The extra innings were bizarrely dramatic. Former Royal and personal favorite Ramon Ramirez dispatched the Braves in the top of the 10th, and in the bottom half, San Francisco again looked poised to put the game away. It was potentially (and still may turn out to be) a disastrous inning for the Braves, as Billy Wagner injured his oblique after successfully fielding Andres Torres‘ sacrifice bunt that moved Edgar Renteria to second base, forcing the Braves to bring in everyone’s favorite high leverage reliever: Kyle Farnsworth. Good news, everyone! Professor Farnsworth did not disappoint, drilling Freddy Sanchez and then walking Aubrey Huff to load the bases with one out and Buster Posey coming to the plate. What happened next upped the SI (Surrealism Index) considerably, with Posey hitting a grounder to nominal third baseman Troy Glaus (yes, he’s still alive), who, rather than getting the runner at home, made the daring decision to start the double play… and it worked to the tune of a 33 percent shift in win expectancy.

It would be hard to top that, but Rick Ankiel’s game-winning shot off of Ramon Ramirez managed to do so. One could make criticisms of Bochy’s leaving Ramirez in the game, at least for that plate appearance, but none of them are devastating. Ankiel does have a pretty large platoon split, so maybe bringing in, say, Jeremy Affeldt in to face Ankiel might have been the right move, but Ramirez himself doesn’t have a huge platoon split for his career. Moreover, Affeldt hasn’t been that great this season, and even with the platoon advantage Rick Ankiel is still Rick Ankiel. Perhaps more worrisome would be that Ramirez gives up a lot of fly balls, and power is probably Ankiel’s only skill (albeit one mostly hidden the last two seasons) at the plate, but there was a much greater chance of Ankiel making an out than hitting it out, and the park deflates home run/fly ball rates. Still, the bullpen was rested from not having to work the previous night, and had the next game off — so there was no reason to be stingy with reliever usage. In any case, things obviously didn’t work out for the Giants, and Ankiel sent one into the water. Even The Professor adding a bit of drama by allowing a baserunner in the bottom of the 11th couldn’t top that drama. The only thing keeping this game from aesthetic perfection was that Jose Guillen wasn’t available to ground into a game-ending double play.

The Giants have good reason to think they should be up two games after one great and one good performance from their starting pitchers against a decimated Braves lineup. Thanks in large part to a contingent of former Kansas City Royals on both sides, they’ll be heading to Atlanta with the series tied.

Two stories stand out in what was quietly the most competitive game of the playoffs so far: Tim Lincecum’s dominance, and a crucial blown call.

As several people pointed out in the immediate aftermath, Tim Lincecum’s game score of 96 was actually higher than Roy Halladay’s 94 in his no-hitter against Reds on Wednesday. This isn’t an endorsement of game score, but does make one think. After all, is a complete game two-hitter really that much less impressive than a no-hitter for a pitcher, given all the variables (fielders, “bad bounces,” ballparks, weather conditions, etc.) that go into the destiny of batted balls? While Lincecum gave up two hits to Halladay’s zero, Lincecum also struck out 14 to Doc’s 8. Then again, 10 of Lincecum’s batted balls were flylballs while 12 of Halladay’s 19 were grounders. I’m not choosing a side, and it doesn’t really matter. Halladay’s game will justifiably go down as one of the greatest in playoff history, but Lincecum’s should get at least a footnote.

Lincecum’s dominance made it seem as if the Giants were running away with the game, but, of course, they only won 1-0. As noted in the preview, Derek Lowe is no slouch. While Halladay’s no-hitter led fans to dub the playoffs “Doctober,” (a meme that became irritating about 15 minutes after it began) Braves starter Derek Lowe made a reasonable case for OctLOWEber, striking out 6 and (more impressively) getting 11 ground balls on 13 balls in play before getting pulled after five-and-a-third. For all the helplessness the Braves offense displayed, the Giants weren’t exactly ripping the cover off of the ball. This should be troubling since, although Lowe is a good pitcher, he’s probably only Atlanta’s third-best starter. Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson aren’t going to make things any easier on the Giants hitters.

Unfortunately, the best game of the playoffs so far was marred by a blown call that set up the only (and thus deciding) run scored in the game. Leaving aside the larger discussion of officiating going on elsewhere, let’s focus on the sequence of the half-inning, since it features not only an officiating blunder, but some “interesting” tactical decisions. Buster Posey singled to lead off the bottom of the fourth. With one on and no outs, and Pat Burrell at the at the plate, either San Francisco manager Bruce Bochy (or perhaps Posey himself) decided it would be a good time to attempt a steal. Although Posey is probably faster than most other catchers, he’s no speed demon, and hasn’t successfully stolen a base in the majors this season. While Brian McCann isn’t Yadier Molina behind the plate, he’s not Ryan Doumit, either. Of course, it “worked” as Posey took the base, despite replays showing that he was tagged out. After Burrell struck out followed by a Juan Uribe whiff, Bobby Cox made a questionable decision to intentionally walk Pablo Sandoval in order to get Lowe the platoon advantage against Cody Ross (the double play potential is irrelevant with two outs), and Ross singled to score Posey for what turned out to be the game’s deciding run.

It’s worth running through the sequence less to emphasize the blown call (which was undoubtedly the key event in the game given what came after) or the curious tactical choices (Bochy kept it up by sending Aubrey Huff, of all people, in the ninth inning; he got gunned down by McCann). Rather, it again reinforces the reality of just how close this game really was, despite Lincecum blowing the Braves away left and right. Giants fans will justifiably remember Lincecum’s awesome performance for a long time. But given San Francisco’s own offensive impotence against the Braves third-best starter, it shouldn’t make them feel overly confident heading into Games Two and Three.

Much of the attention around Game One of this Giants-Braves series understandably will go to Bobby Cox’s decision to have Derek Lowe start rather than Tommy Hanson. Cox did this in order to keep Hanson on regular rest, and given that Lowe isn’t as bad as some think to he is, it’s an understandable choice. The Giants’ top three starters — Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez — are excellent, but Lowe, Hanson, and Tim Hudson are no slouches, either. The Giants have one of the best pitchers in baseball going tomorrow night, but if Lowe can keep the ball on the ground like he usually does and his infielders do their part, the Braves are going to be hard to score on, too. Moreover, as Dave Cameron pointed out in our playoff preview podcast, the Braves have a excellent bullpen (even with Takashi Saito being out) that Bobby Cox should be willing to go to early and often.

The problem the Braves face going into Game One is not so much preventing runs, but scoring them. First, there’s the small issue of Tim Lincecum being really good, even though it has been a “down” year for him (“only” 5.1 WAR, 3.15 FIP). Even more problematic for the Braves is the state of their offense. Perhaps more than any other team, Atlanta’s offense illustrates why simply going off of current season stats when analyzing a matchup is a mistake. In 2010, the Braves’ offense was cumulatively the third most productive in the National league at 39.9 park-adjusted batting runs above average (the Giants were seventh at -14.6). Leaving aside the difference between observed performance and true talent, if we take a closer look, we see that Chipper Jones (+12) and Martin Prado (+17.4) were responsible for about 30 of those. Both Jones and Prado are out for the playoffs. Those injuries, coupled with a McLouth–Cabrera–Ankiel mess so horrible that it makes one think “man, Eric Hinske should really get some starts,” could make things very ugly for Atlanta going up against Lincecum tonight.

The situation isn’t hopeless. Much attention will be given to probable NL Rookie of the Year Jason Heyward and “how he responds” to the pressure situation of being the playoffs. The Braves are obviously counting on a lot from Heyward, but he is not the Braves’ only good hitter. Brian McCann isn’t just a good hitter for a catcher, he’s a good hitter, period. CHONE’s latest update sees McCann as a slightly better hitter (+17/150) than Heyward (+16/150). This means that San Francisco can’t simply save their best left-handed relief specialist for one or the other. Although Derek Lee has had a down season in 2010, his track record suggests he’s a much better hitter than his .340 wOBA in 2010 would indicate. These three players (perhaps including All-Star Omar Infante) don’t make the Braves’ offense a great one by any stretch. Still, Cox has wisely maximized his resources this season by hitting Heyward second (usually the most misused spot in the batting order) more than anyone else on the Braves. If Cox follows his practice from Sunday and slots the right-handed hitting Lee at #3 between Heyward and McCann, it will be much more difficult for the Giants to leverage left-handed relievers against the Braves in crucial situations.

The San Francisco’s offense is probably slightly better than Atlanta’s overall, although the Giants have some holes and questions marks as well. The Giants also have the advantage in starting pitching on Thursday. However, the gaps are smaller than they might seem, and between the Braves’ bullpen and a few good hitters in the key spots in the batting order, Atlanta has more than a sluggers chance. I look forward to the possibility of some interesting matchups between both bullpens and middles-of-the-orders tomorrow night.

Last December, Dave Cameron discussed the mistake of analyzing a team’s chances in the coming season by simply adding and subtracting the performances of players acquired and lost during the offseason to the remaining players’ performance the previous season. For example, if a team hit well except for one spot in their lineup, and they fill that hole with a better player in the off-season, some are tempted to say that one can simply add the new player’s previous performance to the rest of the team’s, and the lineup is now great. Dave pointed out that this is a mistake, because it doesn’t take into account the way in which individual players are likely to age, regress to the mean, perform in a new context (in the case of players changing teams), and so on. In the spirit of Dave’s reminder that the previous season is not a “constant” to be used in analysis of the next, we should keep in mind that current season statistics aren’t a constant when handicapping the playoffs.

Given roughly the same playing time in 2010 as in 2009, a player’s 2010 performance is obviously more relevant. But just as we shouldn’t expect a player to repeat his 2010 performance in 2011, we shouldn’t expect him to duplicate his 2010 performance in the 2010 playoffs. Regression to the mean isn’t a process a player goes through over the winter, but is an essential part of how a player’s “true talent” is estimated at any point in time. When Zack Greinke was not projected to repeat 2009’s 2.16 ERA in 2010, it wasn’t on the basis of him becoming less talented, but rather that he was quite unlikely to have been a true talent 2.16 ERA pitcher in the first place — he was an very talented player who nonetheless was likely pitching “over his head” during 2009. Ryan Hanigan has hit well this season, especially for a catcher, but he’s probably not going to hit for a .368 wOBA in 2011. For the same reasons (past performance, regression to the mean, etc.), he probably isn’t a .368 wOBA true-talent hitter right now, either.

Another mistake is analyzing playoff match-ups using a team’s corporate statistics from the current season, whether it is team OPS, ERA, wOBA, FIP, WAR, or whatever. In addition to the way in which this neglects the difference between observed performance and true talent on an individual level noted above, it also passes over the practical differences between how playing time works out in the regular season as opposed to the playoffs. One obvious example: the Twins offense was 78 park-adjusted batting runs above average this season, good for third best in baseball. However, Justin Morneau accounted for about 36 of those before his concussion — almost half, and Morneau is out for the playoffs. Javier Vazquez pitched 144 (mostly terrible) innings for the Yankees during the regular season, which obviously impacted their team stats, but he won’t being seeing that proportion of action during the playoffs. The Giants team batting runs include a -7 from Bengie Molina, who won’t be playing in the playoffs — not for San Francisco, at least. The Phillies batting statistics reflect Chase Utley only playing 115 games this season; I’m guessing he’ll start a bit more than 70 percent of the Phillies’ playoff games.

One can think of numerous similar cases. Moreover, team season stats include playing time for bench players to rest starters — something that rarely happens in the playoffs. This all may seem rather obvious, but when using raw team statistics to analyze playoff match-ups, these are the sorts of things that are forgotten.

It is understandable why people use team statistics from the current season to dissect post-season match-ups, and I’ve been guilty of doing it myself. But when doing so, we’re using a meat cleaver rather than a scalpel.

The San Francisco Giants had good reason to feel confident going into their final series of the regular season against the San Diego Padres. After launching themselves into first place in the National League West on a run fueled by an incredible September performance from their pitchers, the Giants needed only one victory against divisional rival San Diego in order to win the the division and guarantee themselves a playoff spot. After losing on Friday, things probably got a bit tense. Then came Barry Zito’s start on Saturday:

There’s no need to go over Barry Zito’s performance relative to his contract once again. Zito started the season impressively, at least superficially, and some thought he may have turned a corner. However, Zito unsurprisingly returned to form by the end of the season: a mediocre pitcher whose most valuable attribute is that his fly ball tendencies play well in his home park. He’s not great, or even good, but he probably won’t kill his team. Most of the time.

If Zito wasn’t the sole murderer on Saturday, he was definitely the chief accomplice. Rob Neyer once suggested that a start in which a pitcher gives up more runs than innings pitched be labeled a “disaster start.” Zito allowed four runs in three innings, so Saturday’s start qualifies. What is particularly striking is that Zito “drove in” two of the runs himself on consecutive bases-loaded walks in the first inning. After giving up singles to Chris Denorfia and David Eckstein to open the game, Miguel Tejada bunted the runners over. Zito and Giants manager Bruce Bochy then vividly demonstrated why intentional walks are rarely a good idea. Yes, first base was open, and Adrian Gonzalez is a far superior hitter than Ryan Ludwick.* It “worked,” at least temporarily, as Ludwick made an out. However, the bases were still loaded, and Zito proceeded to walk Yorvit Torrealbea and Scott Hairston consecutively, driving in the first two runs of the game.

* Without doing the all necessary calculations, it is worth noting that the lefty Zito would have had at least something of a platoon advantage against the left-handed hitting Gonzalez.

That wasn’t all that mattered in the game — the Padres scored another run in the third on a Pablo Sandoval error and tacked on another in the fourth that was credited to Zito, who he had just been relieved by Chris Ray after allowing two more runners on base. But those walks were two of the biggest shifts of the game in terms of Win Probability Added, and probably two of the more devastating walks of the season from the perspective of the Giants and their fans.

It isn’t all on Zito, of course. The Giants still had a chance in the ninth when they were down 4-2 and had with runners on first and third and one out, but Jose Guillen grounded into a double play. Although San Francisco can still win the division by beating the Padres on Sunday, if the Giants do end up watching the playoffs on TV, Zito’s disastrous first inning (with an assist from Bochy) in today’s game will definitely stand out.

Going into the season, the Yankees looked like they might have the best starting rotation in the league. Things didn’t quite work out that way: Javier Vazquez had an unforeseeable collapse (I mean, “obviously can’t pitch in New York”), Andy Pettitte got hurt, A.J. Burnett Burnetted the season. The Yankees’ group of playoff starters still looks good against all of baseball once their updated CHONE projections are taken into account (using CHONE’s projected context-neutralized ERA and FIP derived from the projected line). However, the Yankees staff becomes less intimidating once compared with the Twins, Rangers, and Rays. This is not to say that the Yankees have the worst rotation in the AL playoffs, but it is not the clear advantage for them one might have expected in March.

1) CC Sabathia CHONE 3.28 nERA, 3.60 FIP
2010: 4.8 WAR, 3.55 FIP, 3.78 xFIP, 3.34 tERA, 3.18 ERA

To be clear: I don’t think CC Sabathia should win the AL Cy Young. Nonetheless, 2010 isn’t a constant, either, and if in earlier posts I seemed to give Sabathia a bit of the short shrift, it may have been due to an overemphasis on the current season. Yes, the most recent season carries the most weight, but 2008 and 2009 also (should) figure into estimates of a player’s true talent. When everything is taken into account, while Sabathia has been outperformed in 2010 by fellow playoff pitchers Cliff Lee, Francisco Liriano as well as others not in the playoffs, he’s probably still one of the best pitchers in baseball, and his CHONE projection reflects that. Sabathia’s strikeout and walk rates have declined a fair bit from his monster 2008, and a (very) small bit from 2009, but are both still very good. He’s still a horse, averaging about seven innings a start. This season his groundball rate is up to around 50%, making him an even tougher opponent. A number of pitchers clearly had better seasons than Sabathia in 2010; but he still matches up with anyone in the playoffs.

2) Andy Pettitte CHONE 4.27 nERA, 4.23 FIP
2010: 1.9 WAR, 3.96 FIP, 4.10 xFIP, 4.04 tERA, 3.17 ERA

Pettitte’s WAR is relatively low because injuries limited him to 125 innings over 20 starts so far this season. His ERA is excellent, but Pettitte doesn’t have a recent track record of being this much better than his FIP and xFIP, and his tERA is in line with FIP/xFIP as well. Pettitte isn’t a groundball machine any more. His strikeout rate isn’t average, but it isn’t terrible, and he avoids walks. Pettitte is far from dominating, but he is still a good pitcher when he’s healthy, and the Yankees really need to him to be healthy.

3) Phil Hughes CHONE 3.9 nERA, 4.10 FIP
2010: 2.0 WAR, 4.29 FIP, 4.37 xFIP, 4.02 tERA ,4.21 ERA

Hughes has had a bit of a rough time of it lately, and although he hasn’t become the ace some thought he would be, he’s had a solid if unspectacular season. In the transition into the rotation from the bullpen he has predictably lost some strikeouts, but his K rate is still good, and he has continued to do well in avoiding walks. Hughes’ main problem is that he’s been one of the more extreme flyball pitchers in baseball this season, which, combined with an average HR/FB rate, has led to a lot of homers. Hughes’ numbers up fairly well against #3 starters in the AL playoffs. However, although Yankee Stadium is relatively neutral with respect to run scoring generally, it seems to favor the home run, which could be a problem for Hughes in the playoffs given his skill set.

4) A.J. Burnett CHONE 4.16 nERA, 4.46 FIP
2010: 1.0 WAR, 4.81 FIP, 4.65 xFIP, 4.77 tERA, 5.33 ERA

Burnett didn’t quite (ahem) deliver what the Yankees were paying for in 2010. They didn’t expect a fourth starter, but that’s what he will be in the playoffs. In the first round, the Yankees are hoping Sabathia can go on short rest so Burnett won’t have to pitch at all. That’s a good idea. Putting the contract and expectations aside and comparing Burnett with the other fourth starters in the playoffs, he comes off okay. Although his strikeout rate is down, it’s still around average, and his walk rate is almost exactly the same as his career rate. When you compare his 2010 numbers to other #4 playoff starters like Nick Blackburn and Tommy Hunter, he’s the the better pitcher. Only three years and about $50 million dollars left on a guy I just tried to compliment with favorable comparisons to Nick Blackburn and Tommy Hunter.

I haven’t covered potential injury problems recurring with, e.g., Andy Pettitte. It is clear that the Yankees would not be too thrilled at the prospect of having to start Javier Vazquez (whose stunning 2010 collapse deserves a detailed analysis of its own) or Ivan Nova in a playoff game. Almost as frightening (or more) for Yankees fans would be that such a situation would force Burnett to start in the ALDS rather than potentially being skipped. Pettitte and Hughes compare well to other #2 and #3 starters in the AL playoffs, although I think the Rangers have an edge against them with C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis. The Yankees obviously are counting on Sabathia quite heavily to match up with other teams’ aces, pitch deep into games, and possibly pitch on short rest to minimize the amount of Burnett. This last point is especially important if the Yankees’ opponent decides to pitch their ace on short rest as well. It will be fascinating to watch it all shake out, and some surprises inevitably are going to make me look foolish.