Author Archive

Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, Stopwatch Funeral

1:31
Eric A Longenhagen: Hi, everyone. Sorry the chat is late today. I was beginning work on the Cardinals list.

1:31
Eric A Longenhagen: Brewers list went up today, so check that out if you haven’t already.

1:31
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, off we go…

1:31
Alan: How many prospects in the Atlanta system would be the top prospect in the Marlins’ system?

1:32
Eric A Longenhagen: Like 6? Don’t sleep on Braxton Garrett.

1:32
Barnard: If a player had an 80 hit tool, but the rest of his tools were 20, what would his ceiling be? Incredible pinch hitter?

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Top 25 Prospects: Milwaukee Brewers

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Milwaukee Brewers farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)

Brewers Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Lewis Brinson 22 AAA CF 2017 60
2 Corey Ray 22 A+ OF 2018 60
3 Luis Ortiz 21 AA RHP 2018 55
4 Isan Diaz 20 A 2B 2019 55
5 Josh Hader 22 AAA LHP 2017 55
6 Brandon Woodruff 23 AA RHP 2017 50
7 Lucas Erceg 21 A 3B 2019 50
8 Marcos Diplan 20 A+ RHP 2018 50
9 Trent Clark 20 A OF 2020 45
10 Mauricio Dubon 22 AA SS 2017 45
11 Phil Bickford 21 A+ RHP 2019 45
12 Ryan Cordell 24 AA OF 2017 45
13 Jorge Lopez 23 MLB RHP 2017 45
14 Cody Ponce 22 A+ RHP 2018 45
15 Brett Phillips 22 AA OF 2018 45
16 Monte Harrison 21 A RF 2020 40
17 Gilbert Lara 19 R SS 2021 40
18 Corbin Burnes 22 A RHP 2019 40
19 Kodi Medeiros 20 A+ LHP 2019 40
20 Devin Williams 22 A+ RHP 2018 40
21 Demi Orimoloye 20 R OF 2022 40
22 Jacob Nottingham 21 AA C/1B 2018 40
23 Freddy Peralta 20 A+ RHP 2019 40
24 Mario Feliciano 18 R C 2021 40
25 Damien Magnifico 25 MLB RHP 2017 40

60 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2012 from Coral Springs HS (FL)
Age 23 Height 6’3 Weight 170 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 60/60 50/60 60/60 50/55 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .382/.387/.618 at Triple-A Colorado Springs after trade.

Scouting Report
A physical freak who has undergone a half-decade of physical growth and mechanical adjustments to reach the doorstep of the majors, Brinson headlined the package sent to Milwaukee for Jonathan Lucroy ahead of the trade deadline. He had been struggling through the first few months of the season and missed several weeks with a shoulder injury. Injuries have been a prevalent aspect of Brinson’s pro career and he’s missed substantial playing time during each of the last three years with various ailments, including quad and hamstring issues.

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Top 23 Prospects: Chicago Cubs

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Chicago Cubs farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)

Cubs Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Eloy Jimenez 20 A OF 2019 60
2 Ian Happ 22 AA 2B 2018 55
3 Oscar De La Cruz 21 A RHP 2019 50
4 Jeimer Candelario 23 MLB 1B 2017 50
5 Jose Albertos 18 R RHP 2020 45
6 Albert Almora 22 MLB CF 2017 45
7 Dylan Cease 21 A- RHP 2019 45
8 Trevor Clifton 21 A+ RHP 2018 45
9 Mark Zagunis 23 AAA OF 2017 45
10 Jose Rosario 26 AAA RHP 2017 45
11 DJ Wilson 20 A- OF 2020 40
12 Eddie Martinez 21 A OF 2019 40
13 Aramis Ademan 18 R SS 2020 40
14 Victor Caratini 23 AA C/1B 2017 40
15 Felix Pena 26 MLB RHP 2017 40
16 Thomas Hatch 22 R RHP 2018 40
17 Isaac Paredes 17 R INF 2022 40
18 Chesny Young 24 AA INF 2018 40
19 Donnie Dewees 23 A+ LF 2018 40
20 Jose Paulino 21 A LHP 2019 40
21 Bryan Hudson 19 A- LHP 2022 40
22 Duane Underwood 22 AA RHP 2018 40
23 Bailey Clark 22 A- RHP 2019 40

60 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic
Age 20 Height 6’4 Weight 235 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 70/80 50/70 45/40 45/50 50/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded .204 ISO in full-season ball at age 19.

Scouting Report
Jimenez has perhaps the most explosive raw power projection in the minors. When he debuted in the states it was clear his broad-shouldered, 6-foot-4 frame would one day fill out and yield all kinds of crazy power. (He already had at least 55 raw at age 18.) That said, I didn’t expect so much of it to come before Jimenez turned 20. Even when he took batting practice alongside some of the other more prodigious power prospects in the game (Dylan Cozens and Christin Stewart, to name two) at the Futures Game and at Fall Stars, Eloy’s power stood head and shoulders above everyone else’s. Not only does he hit blasts in BP that threaten to enter geocentric orbit but low-lying line drives that, if they don’t clear the wall, seem likely to blast through it.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, Dies to Removal

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning, everyone. Let me tweet a link to this thing and we’ll get started.

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, just a heads up that my Diamond Mind draft is currently going on. If I step away for a minute it’s because I’m aggressively trying to move up.

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Also, Cubs prospect list is done and being edited so expect that in a day or so. Brewers are next. That system is fun.

12:05
JimLindeman15: Have you scouted Jordan Hicks, RHP in the Cardinal organization? If so, thoughts? Made two League Top 10 lists, but doesn’t crack anyone’s Cardinal Top 10-20 lists.

12:06
Eric A Longenhagen: I haven’t seen him but it’s 90-93, will show you 95 and it comes in at kind of a funky angle. Flashes above average slider. Good body, delivery is okay. He’s a solid prospect, 45 FV type of arm.

12:06
DR: How much does age of a player factor into your draft ranking? Looks like more and more HS players are 19+ at the draft. Do teams discount for age?

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Scouting the Braves’ and Rays’ New Prospects

The Seattle Mariners made a pair of moves yesterday, the first of which featured the acquisition of OF Mallex Smith from Atlanta in exchange for pitching prospects Thomas Burrows and Luiz Gohara. They then turned Smith around and sent him to Tampa along with teenage INF Carlos Vargas and LHP Ryan Yarbrough for LHP Drew Smyly. Below are scouting reports on the prospects involved — as well as for Smith himself.

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Top 21 Prospects: Pittsburgh Pirates

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Pittsburh Pirates farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)

Pirates Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Austin Meadows 21 AAA OF 2017 65
2 Tyler Glasnow 23 MLB RHP 2017 55
3 Mitch Keller 20 A+ RHP 2019 55
4 Josh Bell 24 MLB 1B 2017 55
5 Kevin Newman 23 AA SS 2018 50
6 Ke’Bryan Hayes 19 A 3B 2020 50
7 Cole Tucker 20 A+ SS 2020 45
8 Steven Brault 24 MLB LHP 2017 45
9 Will Craig 22 A- DH 2019 45
10 Alen Hanson 24 MLB 2B 2017 45
11 Nick Kingham 25 AAA RHP 2017 45
12 Elias Diaz 26 MLB C 2017 40
13 Taylor Hearn 22 A LHP 2020 40
14 Gage Hinsz 20 A RHP 2020 40
15 Trevor Williams 24 MLB RHP 2017 40
16 Clay Holmes 23 AA RHP 2017 40
17 Luis Escobar 20 A- RHP 2021 40
18 Travis Macgregor 19 R RHP 2020 40
19 Edgar Santana 25 AAA RHP 2017 40
20 Stephen Alemais 21 A SS 2020 40
21 Braeden Ogle 19 R LHP 2022 40

65 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2013 from Grayson HS (GA)
Age 22 Height 6’2 Weight 195 Bat/Throw L/L
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/70 55/60 45/60 60/55 40/50 40/40

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .266/.333/.536 between Double- and Triple-A as a 21-year-old.

Scouting Report
Meadows dominated Double-A for 45 games before receiving a promotion to Triple-A Indianapolis in mid-June. Soon after that, he spent a month on the DL with a hamstring injury, the third one with which Meadows has dealt in as many years (he had reoccurring hammy issues in 2014) and never got things going after he returned, slashing .214/.297/.460. Even so, that’s not alarming in any way for a 21-year-old, especially in a small sample.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, the Thaw

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Hi everyone. There’s actual baseball being played here in AZ this week, rejoice rejoice.

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Oh, the Pirates list is done and being edited, I’d expect that tomorrow.

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s begin

12:02
Owen: Dylan Cease: SP or RP?

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: SP until he proves he can’t do it. I like the progression he’s shown since returning from TJ, less violent delivery, better fastball and curveball control.

12:03
Zonk: Is there something Mark Zagunis can do to get more interesting for you as a prospect guru?

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Top 32 Prospects: Cincinnati Reds

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Cincinnati Reds farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)

Reds Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Nick Senzel 21 A 3B 2018 55
2 Amir Garrett 24 AAA LHP 2017 55
3 Jesse Winker 23 AAA OF 2017 50
4 Aristides Aquino 22 A+ OF 2019 50
5 Shedric Long 21 A+ 2B 2019 50
6 Taylor Trammell 19 R OF 2021 45
7 Robert Stephenson 23 MLB RHP 2017 45
8 Chris Okey 22 A C 2019 45
9 T.J. Friedl 21 R CF 2019 45
10 Luis Castillo 24 AA RHP 2018 45
11 Tyler Stephenson 20 A C 2020 45
12 Alfredo Rodriguez 22 R SS 2018 45
13 Rookie Davis 23 AAA RHP 2018 45
14 Phil Ervin 24 AA OF 2017 45
15 Sal Romano 23 AA RHP 2018 45
16 Tyler Mahle 22 AA RHP 2018 45
17 Keury Mella 23 AAA RHP 2018 40
18 Ariel Hernandez 24 R RHP 2017 40
19 Sebastian Elizalde 25 AAA OF 2018 40
20 Vlad Gutierrez 21 R RHP 2019 40
21 Tony Santillan 19 A RHP 2020 40
22 Austin Brice 24 MLB RHP 2017 40
23 Jimmy Herget 23 A+ RHP 2018 40
24 Blake Trahan 23 A+ SS 2019 40
25 Nick Travieso 22 AA RHP 2018 40
26 Ian Kahaloa 19 R RHP 2021 40
27 Juan Perez 25 R UTIL 2017 40
28 Josh VanMeter 21 AA UTIL 2018 40
29 Alex Blandino 24 AA 2B 2018 40
30 Tanner Rainey 24 A RHP 2018 40
31 Nick Hanson 18 R RHP 2022 40
32 Ryan Hendrix 22 A RHP 2019 40

55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Tennessee
Age 22 Height 6’1 Weight 205 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/60 55/60 40/55 55/50 40/50 55/55

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Dramatically increased ISO (.170 as a sophomore, .243 as junior) at University of Tennessee in 2016 and stole 25 bases at an 86% clip.

Scouting Report
A young-for-the-class SEC hitter with a long track record of success, Senzel was the most polished bat available in the 2016 draft. I saw him early in the year during a four-team round robin in Arizona and thought he’d go somewhere in the top 10-15 picks. While facing pitching far beneath the quality of arms he’d see later in the year during SEC play, Senzel finished the weekend 8-for-13 with four doubles, six walks, five of those on the final day of play. Despite my own enthusiasm, when a scout told me they thought he had an outside shot at going 1-1, I scoffed. Senzel was drafted No. 2 overall by Cincy in June. There are probably a few reasons for this, beyond a potential misevaluation of Senzel’s talent. Prospects ahead of Senzel on my board at that time (such as Jason Groome, Delvin Perez, Alec Hansen) all saw their stocks dip for one reason or another during the spring, while Senzel continued to rake. Moreover, he was one of the safest prospects in a draft class without huge, risk-worthy talent up top.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, Back to Work

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from scenic Tempe. Are you well? I hope so. Let’s begin a marvelous discussion about baseball.

12:03
chris: How worrisome is Bradley Zimmer’s strikeout rate? How does it affect his outlook for 2017?

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely a bit of a red flag but one that I think he’ll overcome with the power and defense.

12:03
Philip: Which lower level padres prospect that isn’t getting a lot of attention do you think can break out?

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Michel Miliano

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: That’s a long term one.

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Top 19 Prospects: Detroit Tigers

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Detroit Tigers farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)

Tigers Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Matt Manning 18 R RHP 2020 55
2 Christin Stewart 23 AA OF 2018 50
3 Beau Burrows 20 A RHP 2020 45
4 Tyler Alexander 22 AA LHP 2018 45
5 Michael Gerber 24 AA OF 2018 45
6 Joe Jimenez 21 AAA RHP 2017 45
7 Dixon Machado 24 MLB SS 2017 45
8 Derek Hill 20 A OF 2021 40
9 Jose Azocar 20 A OF 2020 40
10 Kyle Funkhouser 22 A- RHP 2019 40
11 Jacoby Jones 24 MLB OF 2017 40
12 Adam Ravenelle 24 AA RHP 2017 40
13 Gerson Moreno 21 A+ RHP 2019 40
14 Sandy Baez 23 A RHP 2019 40
15 Hector Martinez 20 R SS 2021 40
16 Arvicent Perez 22 A C 2020 40
17 Kevin Ziomek 24 A+ LHP 2018 40
18 Spencer Turnbull 24 A+ RHP 2018 40
19 A.J. Simcox 22 A+ SS 2018 40

55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Sheldon HS (CA)
Age 19 Height 6’6 Weight 185 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command
60/70 50/60 40/50 30/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Has recorded 46 recorded in 29 pro innings.

Scouting Report
Manning is the prototypical prep righty. He has tremendous size, throws hard, is a terrific athlete (he was committed to Loyola Marymount to play baseball and basketball) with great bloodlines (his father played in the NBA) and has exhibited a nascent feel for a potentially dominant curveball. Any high-school pitcher cooking with that list of ingredients is a slam-dunk first-round pick, and Manning was clearly the second-best high-school righty in the 2016 draft.

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