Monday night was special for Team Rubio. By falling to Venezuela on Sunday night, Puerto Rico had put themselves in a position with little room for error and faced a win-or go home scenario against the Dominican Republic on Wednesday night. Taking on Israel in its third game of Pool D play and with limited pitching depth, the team needed a nails performance from starter José De León. He didn’t disappoint, delivering for his people and providing a historic WBC performance. In a mercy rule win, Puerto Rico combined for eight perfect innings led by De León, who went 17 up and 17 down with 10 strikeouts.

After a top of the first inning that was over before you could blink, Team Rubio immediately got it going offensively. As Yonder Alonso said on the broadcast, “early and often” was the goal for this lineup after Puerto Rico almost rallied back from a big deficit against Venezuela the night before, bringing the tying run to the plate in the eighth inning after trailing 7–0 in the second. To carry that energy over, the top of Puerto Rico’s lineup had to set the table. Francisco Lindor and Enrique Hernández both made quick outs, but then chaos ensued, starting with a four-pitch walk by MJ Melendez. Emmanuel Rivera then scorched a ground ball at 106.1 mph into left field, setting up a run scoring opportunity for Javier Báez.

Báez had struggled mightily in the previous two games. He committed the error on Jose Altuve’s game-opening groundball, kick-starting Venezuela’s three-run first inning, and had spent his at-bats chasing breaking ball after breaking ball way out of the zone. Hitting fifth in the lineup, Báez was going to be relied on as a run creator. After taking a slider outside to start the at-bat, he did just that, sending a blistering line drive down the left field line that just landed fair to drive in Melendez and Rivera and give Puerto Rico a 2–0 lead:

Javier Báez and Team Puerto Rico strike first. ? #WorldBaseballClassic

(MLB x @TMobile) pic.twitter.com/IgoXKWwEnW

— MLB (@MLB) March 13, 2023

Right after that double, we got a taste of why Báez is called El Mago — The Magician — when he swiped third base on a 1–0 count with Eddie Rosario at the plate. Nobody makes an art form out of the swim slide better than Báez. Sit back and appreciate the near impossible:

SWIM MOVE ????

JAVY IS A MAGICIAN ?

?: WBC on FS1 pic.twitter.com/Kli53YL8IG

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) March 13, 2023

Nobody knows how he does it, but that’s why Báez has his nickname. Last WBC, we got him applying a sensational no-look tag on the heels of Yadier Molina’s perfect throw to nail Nelson Cruz attempting to swipe second; this year, we have another beautiful swim slide. Rosario didn’t let this it to waste, knocking in Báez with a 405-foot double off the base of the center field wall to give Puerto Rico a 3–0 lead.

That was more than enough for De León. In the top of the second, he induced four swinging strikes on his sinker, including three against Alex Dickerson. Israel’s hitters couldn’t handle the pitch all night: de León threw 44 sinkers in total and earned 15 called strikes and whiffs on it. As he churned through the lineup the first time through the order, he leaned on that sinker to do everything for him, both setting up and finishing off hitters with it. After the game, he credited Martín Maldonado’s pitch calling, noting that he didn’t shake off the veteran once the entire game. Maldonado had a plan to attack hitters with the sinker the first time through the order if De León could keep executing the pitch. And as the game progressed, he switched to more and more changeups and sliders to keep Israel’s hitters on their toes. All night, De León executed whatever Maldonado threw down for him.

In the bottom of the second, Hernández added to the onslaught with a double to score an additional two runs with no outs. Two batters later, Rivera punched a triple into the right-center gap to make it 6–0. The Diamondbacks third baseman has been solid so far as Puerto Rico’s unexpected cleanup hitter and at the hot corner. In the weeks leading up to the tournament, the expectation was that Jose Miranda and Carlos Correa would fill out Puerto Rico’s infield alongside Lindor and Báez. But with both Twins hitters bowing out of the tournament, Rivera was inserted into the starting lineup with the task of following the team’s three best hitters. So far, he has four hits in 11 at-bats with four RBI and two runs scored to go along with clean defense. Given a challenging opportunity, he has made the very most of it.

De León’s first big challenge came in the fourth, with the top of Israel’s lineup coming up a second time, led by their best hitters in Joc Pederson, Zack Gelof, and Matt Mervis. But he needed only eight pitches to breeze by them. Against Pederson, he switched up his sequencing and threw three consecutive changeups, with the third yielding a routine groundball to Neftali Soto at first. De León then caught Gelof trying to ambush a sinker and fooled him with the only cutter he threw all night. Looking to crush a high pitch, Mervis swung at two sinkers in the top third of the strike zone, then took a third that ran away and off the plate. That set him up perfectly for the changeup, and while Maldonado helped de León with a perfect frame of a pitch that may have been slightly off the low and outside corner, either way, it was perfectly executed and earned De León a called third strike from home plate umpire Ron Kulpa.

The top of fifth was just as easy as the previous inning, with De León needing just seven pitches to complete it. His offense didn’t go down as easily: Baéz led off the bottom half of the frame with a double; Joey Wagman entered the game in relief and intentionally walked Vimael Machín to get the favorable matchup against Maldonado, but he couldn’t find the zone with his curveball and ended up walking the veteran catcher as well, setting up a bases-loaded opportunity for Lindor. The Mets shortstop fell behind 0–2 but got a hanging curveball in his sweet spot and smacked it off the wall in right-center field, just missing a grand slam:

El Capitán clears the bases for Team Puerto Rico! #WorldBaseballClassic pic.twitter.com/LGgna4Vnd6

— World Baseball Classic (@WBCBaseball) March 14, 2023

Lindor’s triple cleared the bases, and as he cruised into third base, he rubbed his luxurious blonde hair while his teammates and fans basked in the moment.

Heading into the sixth up 9–0, de León was still under the WBC’s first-round maximum of 65 pitches, allowing him to return to the mound and continue his perfect game bid. He struck out both Spencer Horwitz and Ty Kelly looking before exiting, one pitch shy of the limit and the owner of the longest perfect game bid by a starter in WBC history. He was serenaded by a roaring Puerto Rican crowd as he exited the game:

The house was rocking for José De León and his perfect performance. #WorldBaseballClassic pic.twitter.com/O5O4RYnnmc

— World Baseball Classic (@WBCBaseball) March 14, 2023

As a former top prospect who has battled countless injuries, De León is still looking to find his place in MLB; maybe this outing will help him make the Twins, with whom he signed a minor league deal back in December and joined earlier this spring as a non-roster invitee. But even it doesn’t, he will have a life-long memory that not only means the world to him, but also to a tiny little island whose people eat, sleep, and breathe baseball. His quote after the game says it all:

“I’ve been through so many obstacles in my career, so many things. And to have a moment like this in front of my family, my people, wearing Puerto Rico across my chest makes it a hundred times more special. I’m still walking on cloud nine right now, so it’s a moment I’ll remember forever.”

After De León, Molina went with Yacksel Ríos to close the sixth, Edwin Díaz for the seventh, and Duane Underwood Jr. for the eighth and final inning. Those three pitchers were perfect as well and got one last bit of support from the offense, who closed out the 10–0 win with Hernandez’s single in the bottom of the eighth that scored Maldonado and invoked the mercy rule. It was the second no-hitter in WBC history — the first belongs to Shairon Martis, who threw it for the Netherlands in 2006 — and the only one in which zero runners reached base. And to many Puerto Ricans, myself included, this game means more than you can imagine. That performance by De León and the rest of the team will be spoken about in the Puerto Rican community for as long as baseball is played.

The Pool of Death has been as exciting as advertised so far. Venezuela will look to secure their spot at the top of the pool on Tuesday against Nicaragua; if they win and the Dominican Republic defeats Israel later that night, we will have an incredible rivalry matchup set for Wednesday between the DR and PR. The winner will move on, and the loser will go home. Buckle up, folks; we may have just seen a walk-off perfect game, but we’re just getting to the most thrilling part of the tournament.

There are a handful of things that I consider pillars of my personality and spirit. Baseball, of course, is one of them. That’s likely easy to infer, but there are a few others that you might not know about. Since I was a kid, what I’ve put on my feet has meant a lot to me. No matter where I was going, I wanted to rock fresh kicks. This also meant that players with signature cleats and/or sneakers meant a lot to me, too. I wore Ken Griffey Jr.’s Air Griffey Max 1s the second my feet were big enough to fit into a kid’s pair. Unfortunately, in the last decade or so, baseball players haven’t inspired as prominent a line of footwear as Griffey did. But I think there is a chance for that to change.

In January, baseball’s most iconic star, Shohei Ohtani, signed a multi-year footwear and apparel deal with New Balance. The numbers around the deal still aren’t clear, but it will be a long-term partnership with custom apparel, cleats, and sneakers. What I want to address is the potential impact of this deal and how it can serve as an entry point for growing the culture of baseball by stretching it beyond the diamond and onto people’s feet. Other prominent players, like Aaron Judge and Mike Trout, have footwear and apparel deals of their own, but none has stomped a footprint on sneaker and fashion culture like Griffey did when his first shoe dropped in 1996 at the peak of his stardom.

The drop of the Air Max Griffey 1 was strategic and savvy. In Complex’s account of Griffey’s impact on this era of sneaker and baseball history, they noted that Griffey and Nike’s goal for the shoe was to be multipurpose and fashionable. Specifically, Griffey himself demanded the shoes be wearable with jeans. Why was that? Well, of course that would mean they were more than just an athletic shoe — you can fit them up too. That plan worked out well for Griffey and Nike, who were able to carve out additional space in the sneaker market to go along with the Jordan line and other Nike sponsored basketball players. With the help of the company’s marketing push and its desire to make the most of Griffey’s stardom, an iconic sneaker was created that is still being worn over 20 years after its original release. This helped Griffey cement the leap from being a baseball and sports icon to a cultural one. New Balance and Ohtani could make the most of their partnership if they used this approach to their advantage and applied it to their own plans for Ohtani’s market appeal. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s World Baseball Classic time! Over the next two weeks, we will see players from all over the world represent their countries in the hopes of bringing home a title. We’ll be lucky enough to see MLB superstars like Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, and Juan Soto play for their respective countries, but viewers will also be introduced to some names and faces they might not have seen play stateside. Baseball is played all over the world, after all, and there are hundreds of players who could prove to be impactful for their teams in this tournament.

With games starting today, I wanted familiarize you with a few players who either aren’t yet household names in MLB or have no experience in MLB at all. I’ve selected each of these players because they have a chance to be standouts on their respective teams. Read the rest of this entry »

From a pure talent perspective, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is special. Only 10-15 players in any given season run a strikeout rate in the mid-teens while posting an ISO of .200 or better. Guerrero has done so in each of the last two seasons (his .290 ISO in 2021 was fifth among qualified hitters). I try to keep that context in mind when I analyze players of Guerrero’s caliber. While I think it’s fair to say that his 132 wRC+ in 2022 was underwhelming, that mark is still quite impressive — indeed, it ranked 29th among qualified hitters last season. He was still productive despite running a 52.1% groundball rate, a mark exceeded by just six qualified hitters, none of whom came close to matching his year at the plate. If he continues to hit like this for the rest of his career, he’ll be a perennial All-Star. Still, given his talent and the lingering expectations of his prospect pedigree, I suspect the Blue Jays are looking for ways to get Guerrero back to something resembling the superlative 2021 version of himself. So let’s do the same.

Now you may be thinking, “Esteban, we all know Vlad Jr.’s problems come when he gets too groundball happy. Why not just tell him to hit more fly balls?” That’s good advice, but I’m more interested in the finer details. For example, Guerrero’s increased groundball rate is the result, but his process has an effect on that outcome. Depending on the hitter, swinging at pitches in zones that don’t match up with their spectrum of swing planes can lead to a change in their batted ball profile. Alternatively, a hitter’s swing decisions could be roughly the same, but a slight mechanical change could alter their bat path. For the Blue Jays first baseman, I think there was a combination of both. Let’s start with how his batted ball profile changed from 2021 to 2022:

Read the rest of this entry »

The Brewers are vying for a playoff spot in 2023, and rightfully so. Despite coming up short last season, their roster is quite talented. Their playoff odds sit at 57% and their division odds at 37.6%, trailing only the Cardinals in the latter among NL Central squads. They’re led by a strong starting rotation, but the offense has at a least a few question marks. After trading for a potential bounceback candidate earlier this winter in Jesse Winker, they are hoping for the same in Luke Voit, who is joining Milwaukee this spring as a non-roster invite. After the worst offensive season in his professional career, Voit couldn’t land a guaranteed roster spot anywhere and will instead attempt to make a Brewers team in need of some offensive pop.

Voit is a good hitter. His recent track record might paint him as average, but injuries have limited his performance in consecutive years. Even though last season wasn’t nearly as productive as any of his years in New York, he still finished it with a 102 wRC+ in 568 plate appearances. And while it’s no longer realistic to assume good health from Voit, if he can sustain even semi-consistent health, he can be an offensive boost for the Brew Crew.

As it stands, the Brewers have a few options who will rotate between first base and designated hitter on a non-permanent basis, and none have the potential juice that Voit has. Let’s look at those options and how their ZiPS projection compares with Voit’s:

Assuming health, Tellez and Winker are the only hitters guaranteed to be in the lineup almost every game. Tellez performed well last year and has the advantageous platoon split; Milwaukee’s offense is highly dependent on him repeating his 2022 season. Winker is expected to be the most productive of the other options. He will likely move between the outfield and designated hitter (and probably spend more time doing the latter than playing the former), but if he hits anything like he did in Cincinnati and as ZiPS expects him to, the at-bats for Voit will be limited. Despite this, Winker and Tellez are both left-handed, leaving some room for Voit to get decent playing time. Read the rest of this entry »

Sometimes I dream about a life as a scout, traveling around the world watching baseball players in person for the first time. That’s not reality for me, though. Instead, I’m limited to a dozen or so games a year in person and many more on my television. But every now and then, I get a remnant of that in-person feeling when watching on TV and can recall the performance pitch by pitch. Those are special in their own way. This year, one of those came in a mid-September game when Brayan Bello took on the Yankees in Fenway Park.

For the first time since his call-up in July and after a rough patch to kick off his big league career, Bello was on a nice run of success, with back-to-back starts of five or more innings. And over five innings, he was solid again against his team’s biggest rival, racking up 14 whiffs, striking out six and not yielding a single run. Through a combination of four-seamers, sinkers, changeups, and sliders, he stifled the Yankees’ lineup two times through the order. Read the rest of this entry »

Depending on what your expectations were for the 2022 postseason, you likely saw Cristian Javier as the third or fourth starter for the Astros entering October. Dusty Baker agreed, as Javier didn’t get a start until the ALCS against the Yankees. But Javier clearly had different plans. When given the chance, he was dominant: in 12.2 innings, he pitched to a 0.71 era; in his two starts, he gave up a single hit across 11.1 innings facing the imposing lineups of the Yankees and Phillies. That performance plus his 3.4 fWAR in 148.2 regular-season innings put him on the map as one of the league’s best young pitchers. And last week, the Astros rewarded him as such by handing him a five year, $64 million extension.

After Houston announced the hiring of long-time Braves scouting executive Dana Brown as the team’s new general manager, I wondered if he would bring along his former organization’s tendency to extend players into their would-be free-agent years. It didn’t take long for that idea to come to reality. Javier was set to enter his three arbitration years in his age 26–28 seasons; those years have been bought out with salaries escalating from $3 million in 2023 to $7 million in ’24 and $10 million in ’25. His age-29 and 30 seasons will come at the price of $21 million per year, with an opportunity to escalate it from $500,000 to $2 million per year if he finishes at or near the top of the Cy Young ballot.

Even with free-agent departure after free-agent departure, Houston’s rotation remained strong due to the development of Framber Valdez and now Javier. But with the departure of Justin Verlander, the rotation looked like it was finally hitting a point of potential vulnerability. Extending Javier, then, provides the Astros some semblance of certainty beyond 2025. And with their entire starting lineup other than Martín Maldonado locked up through at least ’25, they needed to invest in their rotation. Read the rest of this entry »

In baseball, there are two sounds that can’t quite be matched: the pop of the catcher’s glove after a sizzling fastball, and the sound of the ball being crushed by the meaty part of the barrel. No one is more familiar with the latter than Giancarlo Stanton. In the Statcast era, no hitter has consistently hit the ball as hard as he has; his otherworldly bat speed leads to some of the most impressive batted balls you’ll ever see.

Stanton’s outlier ability to hit the ball like it came out of a rocket will always raise his floor as a hitter compared to the average player. If you hit the ball like he does, even pounding it on the ground isn’t a huge concern. That doesn’t mean Stanton is impervious, however. You can’t post an exit velocity if you swing through the ball, and if he were to start making less contact, it would be a problem. In 2022, Stanton’s hit tool looked closer to that of Joey Gallo than Aaron Judge, which led to his worst full season in pinstripes by wRC+, and perhaps since his rookie year all the way back in 2010. His .211 batting average and .293 on-base percentage were both more than 50 points off his career marks. And while that decline could be partially attributed to Stanton entering his mid-30s, that’s not the only factor at play here.

Stanton’s season was marred by injury. He constantly dealt with lower leg injuries; ankle tendinitis, a calf strain, and a bruised foot all messed with the way he interacted with the ground, and it showed at the plate. As a rotational athlete, your ability to exude force into the ground is directly tied to the stability of your lower half. When a hitter’s stride foot lands, it sends energy into the ground that shoots back up for the lower half to absorb. If you stomp on the ground, there is a wave of energy that recoils through your legs and hips that you must control if you want to transfer that energy into your swing. Any hitter’s ability to do this would be disrupted by a single lower leg injury. That only worsens when you deal with injuries on both sides of your body like Stanton did, which can lead to multiple energy leakages that completely throw off your swing. For Stanton, those can be seen in the atypical movement of his feet before and during his rotation.

I’m going to show you exactly what that looked like, but first, let’s detail some of the ways Stanton struggled relative to previous seasons from a statistical perspective:

Stanton’s drop in performance can be seen in his increased whiff rate in the zone and general performance against fastballs. A general rule of thumb is that great hitters crush fastballs. If a pitcher makes a mistake with a heater in the middle of the plate, they will pay the price. That becomes more difficult as velocity rises, but that’s where the great hitters set themselves apart from good hitters. Stanton has never been one to be overwhelmed by high velocity; in fact, he’s always been well above league average. But his injuries compromised his connection to the ground, and as a result, he struggled. The table below details his performance against high-velocity fastballs as a Yankee:

Stanton has dealt with soft tissue injuries for his entire tenure in New York, but he has still hit when he’s been on the field, including against high-velocity fastballs. But his .294 wOBA against this group of pitches was .017 points below league average and a big drop from his .359 mark in 2021, which was .049 points higher than the league average. This regression can be zoomed out on a more macro level, too. Stanton’s performance in the heart of the zone against fastballs also changed from 2021 to ’22:

There are a few takeaways from this. First, the drop in xwOBA in 2022 tells us Stanton’s expected stats were significantly worse than previous years on fastballs in the heart. He managed to keep his wOBA relatively high, but it seems like there was at least a little bit of luck involved. Next, when we focus in on in-zone fastballs when Stanton was behind in the count, you can see a precipitous drop from previous seasons. Like any great hitter, he would make pitchers pay for mistakes in the heart of the plate even when he was behind in the count, but that wasn’t the case last year. And while he is naturally a guess hitter, he seemed to rely too heavily on those guesses, and it resulted in many poor at-bats. A hitter of this caliber missing fastballs in the heart of the zone this much when behind in the count is a tell-tale sign that something is wrong. Those are the types of things you do when your body feels different and you can’t get to pitches you’ve always crushed.

To understand what I’m talking about, let’s run through a sequence where Stanton just looked off. This at-bat is from mid-July, after he suffered a right calf strain in late May and right around the time when he began missing time due to his left ankle. He started 2–0 on two fastballs out of the zone, then got three straight in the heart of the plate:

Pitch 3 (2–0 count)

Pitch 4 (2–1 count)

Pitch 5 (2–2 count)

This is a perfect in-game example of him letting fastball mistakes go by. One of the reasons Stanton has been such an incredible hitter for so long is that he creates his bat speed with minimal movement; his swing is shockingly quiet for somebody so large. On his two swings in advantage counts, his feet are dancing, especially in the first. He has a natural scissor kick from a closed stride, but it looks like he is losing grip on the ground before his swing gets going. Every hitter guesses or cheats at some point in an at-bat, but if they’re wrong, they can usually fight off a center-cut pitch with two strikes. Despite another fastball in the heart of the plate, Stanton couldn’t get a swing off. When your lower half isn’t properly connected to the ground, it can be difficult to rotate! As he took the pitch down the plate, you can see him enter extreme ankle eversion (ankle collapses inwards). Stand up and try to take a swing like that. Not so comfortable, right?

To illustrate that point further, here are a few swings from earlier in the season when Stanton’s feet are near neutral through the entire swing.

May 12

May 16

May 21

Each of these swings resulted in batted balls with exit velocities over 114 mph, a typical range for Stanton. But more importantly, his movements were quiet from his knees down. Relative to the swings against Cincinnati, there is no exaggeration of movement in any one part of his lower legs. In his home run swing against Dylan Cease, he uses his typical toe tap on his front foot and subtle scissor kick in the back foot to stay closed. There is no back foot slide like in July. These are fully healthy swings where Stanton maintains his connection to the ground from the beginning of rotation through contact.

Unfortunately for him, the compensations he showed in July only got worse through the end of the year.

August 29

September 24

October 1

From August on, Stanton was healthy enough to be on the field as other Yankees hitters faced injuries of their own, but he was clearly not close to 100%. These three swings can either be tied to his injured left ankle being unable to stay connected to the ground, or to his back foot not being strong enough to compensate for the energy leakage in his lead foot/ankle. In the first swing, his back leg slides way out because it’s attempting to do all the work for his body. The second swing is weeks later; he made an adjustment but still leaked into the same early ankle eversion in his back leg that we saw in July. It’s not impossible to hit like this, but when you’re struggling with stabilization, it’s not ideal.

His swing in early August is the most extreme example of how early ankle eversion can impact your lower half. It caused him to lose his back leg entirely, along with his posture. Those movements cut off his swing path, leading to his barrel being unable to cover the outer half. If you go back to Stanton’s swings from earlier in the year, you can see the best ones all come with athletic, straight posture. He’s a big dude, and to have success, he needs a stable base to control his body. This is obvious for any athlete, but as players age and lose a little bit of baseball skill, health and body control become more and more important. I’m not necessarily saying Stanton is losing skill; his first two months show that he seems to be okay. But he might be entering a stage of his career where he has less room for error and injuries like this compromise his skills and expose the biggest hole in his profile: swing and miss. I’m sure Stanton will be conscious of this heading into 2023.

Injuries have plagued Stanton for a while now, but as he heads into his mid-30s, health is more important than it’s ever been. His swing needs to stay quiet to make the most of his outlier strength. None of these injuries were major long-term concerns, but they were enough to compromise his swing and performance. Assuming he enters 2023 fully recovered from these issues, there is no question in my mind he still has the skills to deliver a 130–140 wRC+ season each year. But he will need to be conscious of how any injury impacts his swing as he enters the latter half of his career.

The modern game of baseball is defined by power and strength. You can turn on any game at any time and watch a guy swing his behind off as he launches a 100 mph fastball 450 feet. Of course, that wasn’t always so common — a lot of players used to swing for contact instead of the fences. Today, that skill set is more of a rarity, though there are still a few hitters who choke up on the handle and spray the ball from line to line. Jeff McNeil is perhaps one of the best in this category. Fresh off a batting tile, McNeil was due for a raise in arbitration. Instead, he and the Mets agreed to a four-year, $50 million extension.

The deal buys out McNeil’s two remaining arbitration years and two potential free agent years, taking him through his age-34 season. There’s also a $12.5 million club option for the 2027 season, giving the extension a chance to max out at five years and $62.5 million. On the surface, that seems like a bargain for a player coming off a 5.9 WAR, 143 wRC+ season that also saw him play the best defense of his career according to OAA. However, the free agent market doesn’t tend to be particularly generous to players who are over 30 or rely on contact as much as McNeil does. I asked Dan Szymborski if he could cook up a ZiPS estimate for a McNeil extension and as it turns out, the contract he signed isn’t as much of a bargain as I initially suspected. Including the discounts for the two cost-controlled arbitration years, ZiPS would have offered McNeil a five-year, $69 million extension. That is only $6.5 million more than the maximum the Mets offered when you include the club option. Dan also provided me with McNeil’s projected performance for the life of the contract:

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, what felt like months of Pablo López trade rumors finally came to fruition, as he was sent to Minnesota (along with two prospects) for reigning batting champion Luis Arraez. (For an in-depth breakdown of the trade, check out Ben Clemens’ summary here.) In theory, the trade should help both rosters: the Twins needed pitching depth, and the Marlins needed offensive help. For this piece, I’m going to focus on how López can recover the best version of himself that we saw in 2021 before he missed much of that season’s second half.

López established himself as an above-average starting pitcher in the shortened 2020 season, when he threw 57.1 innings with a 3.61 ERA and 3.09 FIP. The main reason for his success: he bought into the idea of throwing your best pitches more often, throwing his four-seamer and changeup over 60% of the time for the first time in his career. That success carried over into 2021, when he threw 102.2 innings with a 3.07 ERA and 3.29 FIP, followed by a hot start to 2022. But from the middle of June through the rest of the season, he kept tossing up clunkers.

The short story is that hitters stopped whiffing at López’s changeup. He had a slight recovery in the final month, but as you can see in that pitch’s whiff rate and his strikeout rate, that wasn’t him at his best. His repertoire hinges on both righties and lefties swinging at and whiffing on changeups. It’s the key to his success, and it will need to be the focus if he hopes to return to his 2021 form.

So why did hitters swing and miss less at López’s changeup as the season went on, and is it directly related to the pitch itself?

To answer that, it’s worth considering first what a changeup is: a deception. And in order to deceive, you have to make the hitter believe something else is coming. To do that, you must throw your complimentary pitch regularly and in an ideal location. In the case of the changeup, you usually pair it with a four-seamer or sinker; for López, it’s the four-seamer. The success of those pitches goes hand in hand; if one is off, then the performance of the other could be in jeopardy. To go into more detail: if the shape of one changes and no longer tunnels as well with the other, then the combination isn’t as deceptive.

That seems to have been the case with López. Below is a table of his four-seamer/changeup metrics from the last few seasons:

The difference is jarring. López didn’t have pure backspin on his four-seamer to begin with, but a change in shape from the low-80s in Active% (also known as spin efficiency) to 66.2% completely alters a pitch’s shape and, as a result, its effectiveness. Even though his changeup metrics were relatively the same from 2021, the change in the fastball negatively impacted the entire arsenal. If a hitter can distinguish between those two pitches because of shape and/or location, they are less likely to be fooled by either one.

This negative development for López can be traced directly to an injury suffered when he took a liner right off the right wrist on June 10. After that, his performance was sporadic, and more importantly, his release point and pitch location changed:

During his rough patch in July and August, his release point moved down and closer to third base. This slight change perfectly tracks with a loss in active spin. By getting further around the ball, your finger and seam orientation at release are less on top of the ball and more on the side. To get more backspin, you ideally release the ball closer to the top of your fingertips. A change in grip strength that could be the result of a wrist contusion would have a direct impact on these components and cause compensations that take time to realize and adjust to. And while López felt healthy enough to throw 180 innings last year, that doesn’t mean he wasn’t compensating.

When combing through the video, it’s easier to see the change in release. Below are four total clips; the first two are from April, and the two after are from July and August.

There are a few things I want to address. First, López’s altered release point can be traced back in his delivery to a slight change in the use of his glove side. Comparing his throws in the spring to those in the summer, you can see that he’s altered the way he turns his glove over at peak lead arm extension. Early in the year, he only had a slight quarter turn in his glove; in the second half, he progressed into a full turnover.

That subtle difference creates two different reciprocal movements. A reciprocal movement is one that is a direct result of another; if you throw a ball up, it must come down. The same principle works for the body. A change in direction of the glove turn affects the direction of torso rotation, which then affects the angle or position of the throwing arm at release. (The kinetic chain!) That’s an area where he and his coaches can look at when discussing how he can make the proper mechanical adjustments to recover his fastball shape.

It’s important, too, to note how important that recovery will be for López’s tertiary pitches as well. When you lose one of your primaries, hitters can more easily sit on the pitches that aren’t as effective in the arsenal. For López, that pitch was his cutter. After two seasons with a wOBA under .325, the pitch was wrecked in 2022: a .447 wOBA and .321 batting average against. Its downfall can also be traced to his four-seamer, as the pitch went from the mid-50s in spin efficiency to the mid-30s. He may only throw it 10% of the time, but it was still a huge liability. Hopefully whatever mechanical adjustments López makes to recover his four-seamer can filter down to that pitch as well.

Injuries in general can be tough to overcome in the middle of a season. For a pitcher, that difficulty increases with anything related to their arm. A contusion may not be a long-term health concern, but López’s second half shows how something that looks insignificant can lead to detrimental short-term compensations. Luckily for him, this is the type of thing that shouldn’t take any drastic adjustments to fix, and he already has a blueprint for success from his 2020 and ’21 campaigns. With the help of a new coaching staff in 2023, his two-pitch combo should give him and the Twins an above-average starter for the next couple of seasons.