In 2009, Detroit Tigers right-hander Justin Verlander took his performance to another level. The Old Dominion product punched out 7.19 batters per nine innings and issued 3.27 walks per nine frames during his first three full seasons in the majors, with a 4.17 FIP, a 4.48 xFIP and an average of 3.5 Wins Above Replacement per year. But last season, Verlander was an absolute force — he had 10.09 K/9 and 2.36 BB/9, posting a 2.80 FIP, a 3.26 xFIP and 8.2 WAR. That WAR total tied Verlander with Tim Lincecum for second among big league starters, trailing only Zack Greinke. Over the winter, the Tigers locked up Verlander with a five-year, $80 million contract that keeps him in Detroit through 2014.

While Verlander’s tour de force 2009 was impressive, it would have been irresponsible to just assume he’d keep pitching like that from now on. Prior to the 2010 season, CHONE projected that Verlander would have 8.81 K/9, 2.88 BB/9 and a 3.46 FIP, while ZiPS had a forecast of 8.9 K/9, 3.08 BB/9 and a 3.49 FIP. The FANS thought he would keep more of those ’09 gains, projecting 9.53 K/9, 2.59 BB/9 and a 3.41 ERA.

So far, the second overall pick in the ’04 draft is pitching well, if not at last year’s torrid pace. He’s got a 3.38 FIP and 2.5 WAR in 103 innings. His xFIP sits at a less impressive 4.10, due to a 5.8 percent home run per fly ball rate that’s below his 8.2 percent career rate entering the season and the 11 percent big league average. Verlander’s walk rate (3.15 BB/9) is a smidge higher than the projections. His K rate (8.13 K/9) is a bit further off the mark — basically eight to nine strike outs below the CHONE and ZiPS projections, and 16 below the more optimistic FAN forecast. While the difference is by no means alarming, I thought it would be interesting to compare Verlander’s 2009 season to his previous work, showing some of the reasons why his punch out rate has gone from stratospheric to merely excellent.

The 27-year-old is doing a fantastic job of getting ahead of the hitter — his first pitch strike percentage has actually improved from 62.1% in ’09 to 65.3% this year (62.1% average from ’06 to ’08). However, batters are having an easier time connecting with his stuff, both inside and out of the strike zone.

Verlander’s in-zone contact rate was 83.4% in 2009, but it’s 87.3% in 2010. That’s somewhat below the 88% MLB average, but above his 86.8% in-zone contact rate from 2006-2008. Opponents also seem to be fending off more of Verlander’s chase pitches — his out-of zone contact rate was 58.8% in ’09 (61.7% MLB average that year), but it’s up to 71.9% this season (66.6% MLB average). His O-contact rate was 66.7% from 2006-2008 (the MLB average ranged from 57.4% to 61.7% over that time frame).

In 2009, Verlander induced swinging strikes a whopping 11.3 percent of the time (8.3-8.6% MLB average in recent years). That was the third highest rate among qualified major league starters, and well above his 8.4% average from 2006-2008. This season, Verlander’s swinging strike rate sits at 8.2 percent.

In terms of pitch type, the biggest difference between Verlander ’09 and Verlander ’10 is his hopping mid-nineties fastball. According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Verlander got a whiff with his heater 10.6 percent of the time in 2009. This season, he’s getting a whiff 6.3 percent of the time that he rears back and fires (the MLB average is around six percent). His curve is also getting fewer misses — 6.3%, compared to 8.6% last season (11.6% MLB average). The whiff rate on Verlander’s changeup is unchanged (20.5% in ’09, 20.4% in 2010, 12.6% MLB average). For comparison, Verlander’s fastball had a 6.2% whiff rate in 2008, his curve got a whiff 10.1% and his changeup was swung through 11.8%.

It seems as though Verlander is settling in at a performance level somewhere between that of his first three seasons and last year’s fire-breathing dominance. He’s not whiffing ten batters per nine frames again, but that really shouldn’t have been the expectation anyway.

(Note: In 2009, the Pitch F/X system classified almost all of Verlander’s fastballs as four seamers. This year, About 10% of his fastballs are classified as two-seamers. Whether that’s an actual change by Verlander or the result of a change in pitch classification by Pitch F/X, I’m not quite sure.)

In his book, “Is This a Great Game or What?”, Tim Kurkjian relayed the tale of Vladimir Guerrero’s humble beginnings in pro ball. Then a lanky 16-year-old, Guerrero showed up at a tryout in the Dominican Republic on the back of a motorcycle. Sporting mismatched shoes with a sock shoved into one of them to make it fit, Vlad earned himself a contract with Montreal that day. The motorcycle driver got a couple hundred bucks, and the Expos got themselves one of the most devastating hitters in recent memory.

Since debuting with Les Expos as a 21-year-old in 1996, Guerrero has authored a .322/.386/.569 line. Possessing uncanny bat speed and hand-eye coordination and employing an eyes-to-ankles strike zone — he’ll swing at balls, strikes, fastballs, breaking stuff, off-speed, low-flying birds, errant gum wrappers and plastic bags — Vlad’s wRC+ is 144.

Heading into 2010, however, Guerrero appeared to be squarely in the decline phase of his career. Injuries really began to take their toll on The Impaler in 2009. Guerrero was slowed in spring training while recovering from off-season surgery on his right knee. He suffered a strained right pectoral muscle in April and a right calf strain in July, requiring a DL stint for both ailments. Vlad was limited to 407 plate appearances during his last season with the Angels, and he wasn’t his usual self at the dish.

Guerrero posted a .295/.334/.460 triple-slash, with his worst wRC+ (110) since that 27 PA stint with Montreal back in ’96. His mammoth power was conspicuously absent — Vlad’s Isolated Power, which ranged from .218 to .222 the previous three seasons, was a mild .164. The pending free agent produced just 0.8 Wins Above Replacement.

Guerrero’s days as an offensive force appeared numbered — entering his mid-thirties, his body was betraying him. He had to settle for a modest one-year, $6.5 million deal with the Texas Rangers this past winter, with a mutual option for the 2011 season. Suffice it to say, reports of The Impaler’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.

In 311 PA with Texas, Guerrero’s hitting .339/.383/.580. His 152 wRC+ is his highest mark since 2005, as is his .240 ISO. With +19.5 Park Adjusted Batting Runs, Vlad ranks 11th among MLB hitters. And despite being a DH/part-time corner outfielder, he has already put up 2.6 WAR on the season. Last night, Guerrero went 4-for-4 while clubbing a pair of homers — he hammered a Scott Kazmir changeup for a grand slam in the fourth inning and smoked a Francisco Rodriguez slider in the eighth.

A few days ago, I looked at Joe Mauer’s unusual productivity when hitting the ball to the opposite field. Guerrero was also well above-average when going “oppo” in 2007 and 2008, while crushing the ball to center field most effectively. He continued to fare well when going to the middle field last year, but his performance when going the opposite way tailed off considerably:

As Vlad’s numbers when going the opposite way declined, he hit more pitches in that direction:

In 2010, Guerrero has been most effective when pulling the ball:

He has reversed those spray trends — Vlad’s hitting to the pull field 42.2 percent of the time, going to the middle field 39.5 percent and going the opposite way just 18.3 percent.

Vladimir Guerrero’s raking, and he’s making the Rangers look very smart. Wherever that motorcycle driver is, he deserves a bigger tip.

Looking to re-establish his value following an injury-marred 2009 season, Adrian Beltre signed a one-year, $10 million contract with the Boston Red Sox over the winter. By virtue of fantastic third base defense, Beltre still managed 2.4 WAR in his last season with the Mariners while battling a left shoulder injury requiring surgery to remove bone spurs, among other misfortunes that won’t be spoken of here.

As Beltre’s Seattle tenure came to a close, some characterized the five-year, $64 million pact that the M’s gave the third baseman prior to the 2005 season as a waste of team resources. Beltre, according to the narrative, went bonkers during his last season with the Dodgers, landed stacks-o-cash in free agency and then returned to mediocrity. Unfortunately, the facts get in the way of good copy.

Beltre played six full seasons for the Dodgers. He put up an astonishing 10.1 WAR in 2004, but he was an asset those other years, too. From 1999-2003, Beltre averaged 3.3 WAR per season. And, while uttering Bill Bavasi’s name in Seattle still might produce dirty looks and suggestions of physically impossible acts, Beltre was worth every penny the Mariners gave him.

Safeco Field is a crippling environment for right-handed power hitters. Adjusting for league and park factors, Beltre’s bat was slightly above-average — his wRC+ as a Mariner was 102. That decent lumber was coupled with upper-echelon defense, as Beltre posted UZR/150 marks of +8.8, +19.2, -2.7, +13.4 and +21.2. The former Dodger racked up a combined 16.7 WAR with Seattle, a performance that our Dollars system valued at $67.3 million.

In Boston, Beltre is enjoying his best season since that double-digit WAR total back in ’04. After a four-for-four night against the Rays, he’s batting .349/.387/.561 in 310 trips to the plate, with a .410 wOBA that ranks ninth among qualified major league hitters. He’s flashing the leather again, too, with +12.9 UZR/150. Beltre has already compiled 3.8 WAR this season, trailing only Justin Morneau, Robinson Cano and Carl Crawford among position players. With $15.1 million in Value Dollars, he has already more than justified Boston’s investment.

Beltre won’t keep up this pace at the plate, of course — his batting average on balls in play is .387. By contrast, his expected BABIP is .321, and his rest-of-season ZiPS projects a .327 BABIP. But he’s creaming the ball, with a .211 Isolated Power, and it certainly doesn’t hurt that Beltre moved from a park that decreased run-scoring by six percent over the past three seasons (according to the Bill James Handbook) to Fenway and its inviting Green Monster, which boosted runs by 11 percent over that same period. ZiPS has a .362 rest-of-season wOBA for Beltre, and an overall .387 wOBA for 2010.

Beltre’s deal with the Red Sox included a $5 million player option for the 2011 season, which increases to $10 million if he reaches 640 PA this season. Barring some unforeseen injury, the 31-year-old Scott Boras client will opt out and land himself a lucrative multi-year deal this coming winter, whether that be with Boston or elsewhere.

Adrian Beltre is in the midst of a sublime season that’ll almost certainly go down as his best since that monstrous ’04 campaign. But it’s not as though he has been a bust in between those high marks — this guy has always been good.

On May 1st, 2009, Joe Mauer stepped into the Metrodome batter’s box against Kansas City righty Sidney Ponson. Mauer, making his season debut after missing April with a lower back injury, worked a 2-0 count and then smacked a Sir Sidney fastball over the left field wall. The drive set the tone for a season in which the lefty batter, known for lacing line drives, showed unprecedented power.

Mauer, of course, was already among the better hitters in the game. The three previous seasons, he posted a .378 wOBA and a 134 wRC+. But in 2009, Mauer mashed to the tune of a .438 wOBA and a 174 wRC+. Among qualified big league hitters, Mauer’s wOBA placed behind only that Pujols fellow in St. Louis.

The main reason for the offensive uptick was a dramatic increase in Mauer Power. From 2006 to 2008, the first overall pick in the ’01 draft had a .138 Isolated Power. In 2009, Mauer’s ISO spiked to .222. After, as Carson Cistulli would say, jacking a donger on 8.1 percent of his fly balls hit the preceding three years, Mauer hit a round-tripper 20.4 percent of the time that he lofted the ball in 2009.

Heading into 2010, many wondered how much of that extra power Mauer would retain. It would be rash to just expect him to lash extra-base hits and homers at the same rate as in ’09 from now on. At the same time, expecting total regression back to that previous .130-.140 ISO area would be to ignore a power display that holds statistical significance. CHONE projected a .401 wOBA and .178 ISO from Mauer in 2010, while ZiPS had a .415 wOBA and a .189 ISO. The FANS forecast called for a .409 wOBA and a .200 ISO.

So far, Mauer has a .351 wOBA and a 119 wRC+ in 286 plate appearances. Part of that lower-than-expected wOBA can be explained by a .321 BABIP that’s 21 points below his career average, but Mauer’s pop has reverted to his pre-’09 level, and even a bit below it. His ISO is .128, and his HR/FB rate is 4.6 percent.

As Dave Cameron noted over the winter, Mauer has long been a prodigious opposite field hitter. While most batters perform worst when putting the ball in play to the opposite field, hitting lots of weak fly balls and posting mild power numbers, Mauer thrives when he goes the other way. Last season, Mauer’s splits to left field were the stuff of legends:

The above chart is not a typo — Mauer owned a .600 wOBA when hitting to the opposite field, with a .401 ISO. He crushed 16 home runs to left field. This season, Mauer is still a beast when going the opposite way. But his numbers more closely resemble those from 2006 to 2008. He has connected on one home run to left field thus far:

When hitting to center field, Mauer also showed more power than usual and had a higher BABIP in 2009. This season, his ISO and BABIP have come back down:

The 27-year-old has never been a standout hitter when putting the ball in play to the pull side. Most batters post their best numbers when pulling the ball, but Mauer chops the ball into the ground than most — his ground ball rates to the pull side have usually been in the high-seventies, while the average lefty batter hits a grounder when pulling the ball about 59 percent.

In 2010, Mauer has performed even worse than usual when pulling the ball. A low BABIP hasn’t helped, but neither has a sub-.100 ISO. He has yet to go deep when pulling the ball:

On a positive note, considering his backward spray splits, Mauer is pulling the ball less this season — 25.4 percent, compared to 29.3% from 2006-2008 and 32.9% last season.

What should we make of Mauer’s power? I’m not sure, and it’s probably too early to say what effect Target Field has on these figures. My best guess is that he’ll post power numbers somewhere between his ’09 outburst and his current level. Mauer’s rest-of-season ZiPS projects a .164 ISO, and CHONE’s updated projection for June to the end of 2010 had a .174 ISO. Whether he starts hitting the ball more forcefully or merely keeps drawing walks and cracking doubles, Mauer remains one of the most valuable players in the game.

Last season, the Milwaukee Brewers’ starting rotation consisted of Yovani Gallardo and “staff.” The club boasted a potent offensive attack, ranking third in the NL in wOBA and second in Park-Adjusted Batting Runs, but Milwaukee’s starting staff placed just 13th in xFIP. While there were many Bernie Brewer slides, Milwaukee finished the year with a disappointing 80-82 record due largely to the ineffectiveness of the non-Gallardo starters.

Over the winter, the Brewers sought to end those rotation woes by snagging a pair of lefties, Doug Davis and Randy Wolf, in free agency. Yet, even after yesterday’s 3-0 victory over the Mariners, the narrative for 2010 is much the same as it was last year. Milwaukee’s offense is second in the Senior Circuit in wOBA and paces the league in Park-Adjusted Batting Runs. But the starters are the bane of Bernie Brewer’s existence yet again — 12th in the NL in xFIP. At 34-41, the team sits 7.5 games back of the division-leading Reds and nine games behind the Mets for the Wild Card.

Davis tossed just 33.1 innings with Milwaukee this season (7.56 ERA, 4.49 xFIP) before being placed on the DL with pericarditis. Wolf, inked to a three-year, $29.75 million deal, has just been howling bad.

Anyone expecting the 33-year-old to repeat his 2009 season with the Dodgers was bound to be disappointed. Wolf posted a 3.23 ERA in 214.1 frames with L.A. last year, but his peripherals suggested he was the same low-four’s ERA pitcher on display in 2007 and 2008 — with 6.72 K/9 and 2.44 BB/9, his xFIP was 4.17. Heading into 2010, both CHONE and ZiPS expected that Wolf’s .257 BABIP would climb toward the .300 range, and his FIP would settle in around 4.20. CHONE and ZiPS valued the former Phillie, Dodger, Astro and Padres as a 2.2-2.3 WAR pitcher. The FANS were more optimistic, expecting Wolf to match his 2009 output with 3.0 WAR.

Instead of stabilizing Milwaukee’s rotation, Wolf has been the unit’s biggest offender. In his first 97 innings, he has -0.8 WAR, which ranks dead last among NL starters. He is striking out 5.29 batters per nine innings, the lowest mark of his career, while issuing 4.64 BB/9 — his highest rate of free passes handed out since 2006, when he was fresh off Tommy John surgery. Wolf’s 5.39 xFIP is worst among qualified NL starters.

From 2007-2009, Wolf induced swinging strikes 8.1 percent of the time (8.6% MLB average those years). This season, batters are coming up empty just 5.6 percent (8.3% MLB average). His contact rate, 82.4% from ’07 to ’09, is 86.5% (the MLB average has remained around 81%). Wolf’s not getting hitters to chase off the plate as much, either. His outside swing percentage was 24.3 percent from 2007-2009, with the MLB average ranging from 25% to 25.4%. In 2010, his O-Swing is down to 21.1% (28.4% MLB average).

On a per-pitch basis, Wolf’s fastball has gotten hammered. The upper-80’s offering was worth +1.01 runs per 100 pitches from 2007-2009. This year, the heater has a -1.41 runs/100 mark. Looking at Wolf’s Pitch F/X data from 2009 and 2010, he’s getting fewer whiffs, strikes, and swings. Last year, Wolf deceived batters to swing through his fastball 6.4 percent. This year, it’s 5.8 percent (the MLB average is around six). His strike percentage was 69.1 in ’09 and 65.8 in 2010 (62-64% MLB average). Batters swung at the fastball 49.2 percent last season, and 43 percent this season (45-46% MLB average).

Wolf’s hasn’t been terrible versus same-handed hitters, but he’s losing the zone against righties, and fooling fewer of them:

Wolf likely won’t be this bad all season long, but the Brewers clearly haven’t received the return they were expecting. There’s also the question of whether he’ll come close to justifying a $9.5 million salary in both 2011 and 2012. Manny Parra is intriguing, Chris Narveson hasn’t embarrassed himself, and Davis could resume his average innings-munching, but Milwaukee needs Wolf to turn it around. In terms of clearly above-average starters, Gallardo remains the lone wolf.

Heading into the 2010 season, Wade Davis looked poised to shoulder a full season’s workload and join the Tampa Bay Rays’ cavalcade of impressive young starting pitchers. Selected out of a Florida high school in the third round of the 2004 draft, Davis struck out 8.7 batters per nine innings and issued 3.3 BB/9 in the minors. According to Minor League Splits, the 6-foot-5, 220 pound right-hander posted a 3.52 FIP on the farm from 2005 to 2009, including a 3.81 FIP at the Triple-A level over the 2008 and 2009 seasons. Baseball America ranked Davis as the 17th-best prospect prior to ’08 and 32nd-best before ’09, and he was dominant during his first foray in the majors last September and early October. In six starts, spanning 36.1 innings, Davis owned an 8.92 K/9, 3.22 BB/9, and a 3.54 xFIP.

It’s surprising, then, that Davis currently sports a 4.90 ERA. And he hasn’t been unlucky — his xFIP sits at 5.10. Davis’ pre-season ZiPS projection called for 6.75 K/9, 3.01 BB/9, and a 4.13 FIP. CHONE’s forecast had 6.91 K/9, 4.08 BB/9, and a 4.71 FIP. With 6.21 K/9 and 4.18 BB/9 in 75.1 frames, Davis is falling short of those predicted whiff and walk totals. Home runs have been a problem as well, as he has surrendered 1.43 round-trippers per nine innings. The high number of home runs is not the product of an inflated home run per fly ball rate (Davis’ HR/FB% is 11.7), but rather a function of batters putting the ball in the air often (his ground ball rate is 40.3 percent).

In its 2009 Prospect Handbook, Baseball America dubbed Davis “one of the premier power pitching prospects in the game.” But he is having difficulty missing bats this season. His swinging strike rate is just 5.7 percent, well below the 8.3 percent MLB average. Opponents are connecting 91.2 percent of the time on pitches swung at within the strike zone, compared to the 88.1 percent MLB average.

Batters aren’t chasing many of Davis’ pitches off the plate (25.5 percent, 28.3 percent MLB average), either. When they do chase, they areputting the bat on the ball 76 percent of the time (66.5 percent MLB average). Davis’ overall contact rate is 86.8 percent (81 percent MLB average), which places him in the same company as Joe Saunders, Jamie Moyer, and Aaron Cook. Power pitchers they are not.

Davis is going to his fastball a little more than 72 percent in 2010, the fourth-highest rate among qualified MLB starters. According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Davis is doing a good job of throwing both his four-seamer and two-seamer for strikes — the four-seamer is inducing strikes 67.2 percent (64.4 percent MLB average) and the two-seamer 58.5 percent (57.2 percent MLB average). The two-seamer produces a decent whiff rate (5.4 percent, 5 percent MLB average), but the oft-utilized four-seamer producess a 5.1 percent whiff rate that ranks below the six percent big league average.

When Davis does break off a mid-80’s slider or an upper-70’s curveball, hitters are rarely fooled. The slider is yielding a swing and a miss 11.4 percent (13.6 percent MLB average), while the curve owns a paltry 4.2 percent whiff rate (11.6 percent MLB average). Davis’ curve has a strike rate (58.7 percent) close to the 58 percent MLB average, but the slider is missing the mark (57.6 percent, 63.4 percent MLB average). He also mixes in the occasional low-80’s changeup, but it’s a negligible part of his repertoire.

While he’s getting ahead in the count rather well, tossing a first pitch strike 60.1 percent (58.5 percent MLB average), Davis is having a hard time sealing the deal. When Davis is ahead in the count, opponents have managed a .237/.250/.381 line. For comparison, the AL average in such situations is .207/.214/.302. In two-strike counts, batters have a .205/.311/.291 triple-slash. The AL average is .184/.257/.278.

Save for 1-2 counts, Davis uses his fastball more than most in two-strike situations:

So, he goes to his heater (the pitch with the lowest whiff rate) quite often in situations where the K is in play, and when he does throw a breaking ball, hitters aren’t coming up empty.

All of this sounds very pessimistic, but it’s important to keep in mind that Davis has logged 111.2 innings at the major league level. He could certainly make adjustments to his game in the coming months that lead to improved results. But to earn back that power pitcher label, Davis needs to re-discover his breaking stuff.

At 39-33, the Cincinnati Reds currently sit one game back of the St. Louis Cardinals for the division lead in the National League Central. Cincy’s starting pitchers (12th in the NL in xFIP) and ‘pen arms (11th) haven’t really stood out, and the defense has been middle-of-the-pack (eighth in UZR). The offense is the only unit to rate in the top half of the Senior Circuit, as Reds hitters rank second in Park-Adjusted Batting Runs.

Jonny Gomes is doing his part at the plate, slugging .285/.342/.491 with a .352 wOBA in 243 plate appearances. The erstwhile Ray has contributed +4.3 runs with the bat so far, drawing the vast majority of starts in left field for the Reds. During the interleague portion of Cincinnati’s schedule, Gomes has mostly DH’d. Unfortunately, that’s not an option the rest of the year. Once you consider Gomes’ lumbering defense, the Reds might be costing themselves runs by playing him over rookie Chris Heisey.

During his big league career, the 6-1, 225 pound Gomes has a -24.7 UZR/150 in left field and a -16.2 UZR/150 in right field. Pro-rated to 150 defensive games, Total Zone has him at -15.9 runs in left and -24.3 runs in right. Few players in the game punt as much value with the leather — despite Gomes’ quality hitting, he has contributed just 0.1 Wins Above Replacement this season.

Heisey, meanwhile, is considered a much more well-rounded prospect. A 17th-round pick out of Division III Messiah (Pa.), Heisey hit a combined .296/.367/.459 in the minors while rating very well in center and the outfield corners per Total Zone. Prior to 2010, Baseball America called the 25-year-old a “plus defender in the outfield corners.” Heisey projects as an above-average defender in a corner spot, and he reminds me of a David DeJesus-type.

So, how do the two match up? Let’s take a look at Gomes’ and Heisey’s rest-of-season CHONE projections. Offensively, Gomes projects as about +.014 runs above average per plate appearance. Heisey has just 56 plate appearances at the MLB level, with a .413 wOBA. His rest-of-season CHONE forecasts him as -.012 runs below average per plate appearance. If each receives, say, 300 PA from here on out, Gomes would add a little more than four runs above average with the bat while Heisey would be about four runs below average.

Offensively, advantage Gomes. But it’s extremely difficult to envision a scenario in which Heisey doesn’t make up that eight run difference in offensive value with the leather. CHONE thinks that Heisey would actually rate as an above-average center fielder. Let’s say that Heisey rates as a +10 run defender in left per 150 games and Gomes a negative 15 (which is probably generous). If each plays something like 80 more defensive games this season, Heisey would add roughly five runs in value, while Gomes would surrender about eight runs.

Admittedly, the numbers I use are presented as a speculative exercise, but the Reds could be punting a half-win in value for the rest of 2010, perhaps more, by preferring Gomes over Heisey. The NL Central race is close at the moment, but CoolStandings gives the Reds a mild 32% chance of clinching a playoff berth. They’ll need to optimize the talent on hand to stay in the race, and it doesn’t appear as though the team is doing that in left field.

A year and a half ago, Carl Pavano was baseball’s biggest punch line. Formerly a prized Red Sox prospect, Pavano was traded to Montreal in 1997 as part of a package for Pedro Martinez. He overcame early arm troubles that DL’d him three times from 1999 to 2001 to establish himself with the Marlins, whom he was traded to in July of 2002. Topping 200 innings in both 2003 and 2004, Pavano averaged 5.78 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, a 4.03 xFIP and 3.9 WAR a season. After the ’04 campaign, the Yankees came to terms with Pavano on a four-year, $39.95 million deal that will live in infamy.

Shoulder tendinitis. Bruised buttocks. Fractured ribs, suffered in a car accident and allegedly hidden from the club for a time. Tommy John surgery. Pavano threw all of 145.2 innings for the Bombers, contributing just 1.1 WAR while drawing the ire of fans and becoming tabloid fodder. When Pavano signed a one-year, $1.5 million deal with the Indians in January of 2009, with $5.3 million in performance bonuses, most snickered and wondered if he’d strain something while putting his John Hancock on the contract.

In Cleveland, something peculiar occurred: Pavano pitched as if the preceding four years never happened, morphing back into the strike-throwing machine who earned praise with the Marlins. His ERA with the Tribe (5.37) was ugly, but his xFIP (3.94) suggested he was performing as well as ever. Pavano continued his revival in Minnesota (3.99 xFIP) following an August trade. Overall, he had 6.64 K/9, 1.76 BB/9 and 3.7 WAR in 199.1 innings, with a big discrepancy between his ERA (5.10) and xFIP (3.96) due to a .335 batting average on balls in play and a low rate of stranding base runners (66.1 percent).

Pavano accepted arbitration this past off-season, and he’s earning $7 million in 2010. He’s well on his way to justifying that salary — with 1.5 WAR in 96.1 frames, the mustachioed 34-year-old has provided the Twins with about $6 million in value already. Pavano’s not missing as many bats this season (5.14 K/9), but he’s being even stingier with the walks (1.31 BB/9) and has increased his ground ball rate slightly (45.9% this year, 43.4% in ’09). His xFIP (4.03) is essentially the same as last season, though his ERA (3.64) is dramatically lower thanks to a .267 BABIP and a 73.4 percent strand rate.

Utilizing an 89-90 MPH fastball, a low-80’s slider and a low-80’s changeup, Pavano gets ahead in the count like few others — his first pitch strike percentage was 67.7 last year, and comes in at 66.2 percent in 2010 (the MLB average is about 58 percent). Among qualified MLB starters, only Cliff Lee, Carlos Silva, Roy Oswalt and Roy Halladay have a higher F-Strike% this season.

And, hitters have a tough time laying off his stuff off the plate. Pavano garnered swings on pitches outside of the strike zone 32.3 percent in 2009 (25.1 percent MLB average) and 36.4 percent this season (28.3 percent MLB average). The 2010 mark is tops among big league starters.

If Pavano reaches his modest rest-of-season ZiPS projection (a 4.30 FIP in just 77 innings), he would finish the year with around 2.5 WAR and would end up being a bargain for the Twins. Should he approach last year’s innings total with a FIP closer to his current level, he would again top the three win mark. After years of DL stints and derision from fans and analysts, Pavano is back to being a quality rotation cog on a playoff-caliber team.

On Sunday, Josh Hamilton carried the Texas Rangers’ offense. Going 5-for-6 while knocking in the tying run in the ninth inning and the go-ahead tally in the tenth, Hamilton had the biggest impact on the outcome of the game. With a +.672 Win Probability Added, it’s no wonder that the fans designated him Star of the Game.

Hamilton’s revived bat is a welcome sight for the Rangers. In his first season with Texas in 2008, the lefty hitter raked to the tune of a .304/.371/.530 line and a .385 wOBA. Even taking into account the friendly environs of Arlington, Hamilton’s hitting was 35 percent better than the league average (135 wRC+). Last year, however, Hamilton suffered through rib, abdominal, and back maladies, taking just 365 trips to the plate. His line fell to .268/.315/.426, with a .321 wOBA and a 92 wRC+.

Though a left shoulder injury sidelined him early in spring training, Hamilton has stayed on the field in 2010 and is enjoying the best season of his career. In 292 PA, the 29-year-old has a .337/.381/.600 triple-slash. His .422 wOBA ranks fifth among qualified MLB hitters, and his wRC+ sits at 163. Hamilton’s benefitting from some favorable bounces on balls put in play — his BABIP is .385, compared to a .330 expected BABIP and a career .335 BABIP — but he’s also beating the snot out of the ball. After a downturn in his power output last year, Hamilton has returned to his slugging ways:

After posting a mild .158 Isolated Power in 2009, with 9.2 percent of his fly balls leaving the park, Hamilton has a .263 ISO and a 20 HR/FB percentage in 2010. Typically an all-fields power threat, Hamilton didn’t hit with any authority to the middle field last year. He is back to hammering pitches to center this season, while also creaming the ball to the opposite field:

After failing to hit a single home run to center last year, Hamilton has gone deep nine times to the middle field in 2010. And, as his home run chart from Hit Tracker Online shows, they haven’t been cheap. All of those center field shots are in the 400-450 foot range:

Over all, Hamilton’s 16 home runs have an average Standard Distance of about 421 feet, compared to 411 feet last season. The American League average this season is 393 feet. Standard Distance measures the estimated distance a home run would travel, factoring out wind, temperature and altitude differences.

Josh Hamilton won’t keep hitting near .340, but he’s plenty capable of remaining an elite power hitter. ZiPS projects a .299/.355/.523 line for the rest of 2010, with a .383 wOBA and a .226 ISO. After a down, dinged-up season, Hamilton is back. Let’s just hope he can stay off the DL in the months to come.

Before the wheels fell off following a July trade to Detroit, Jarrod Washburn thrived with the Seattle Mariners in 2009. It was the perfect blend of pitcher, park, defense and luck — a left-hander, making his home starts in a venue that saps righty power, behind the best glove men in the game while getting auspicious bounces in tight situations to boot. You couldn’t conjure up a more perfect scenario for a pitcher of Washburn’s ilk.

This season, Washburn’s sitting on the sidelines. Last we heard, the 35-year-old said he was quite content in his retirement. But you’d have to forgive Mariners fans who thought that Washburn was still suiting up for the M’s. Jason Vargas‘ 2010 is shockingly similar to Washburn’s tenure with Seattle last year.

The superficial comparisons are obvious. Both are lefties a smidge over six foot tall. Neither guy cracks 90 MPH on the radar gun under the best of circumstances — Vargas is sitting 86-87 MPH with his fastball this season, while Washburn ramped it up to 88 MPH in ’09. Each features a pair of breaking pitches and a changeup to compensate for the lack of zip, with Washburn also featuring a cutter. But the parallels run much deeper. Take a look at Washburn’s numbers with the Mariners last year and Vargas’ stats so far this season:

We’re not at the same point in the season yet, but the 2010 version of Vargas is a Washburn ’09 clone. Few whiffs, walks, or ground balls. A low BABIP, high rate of stranding runners on base, and a home run per fly ball rate well below the big league average. The result? A sparkling ERA juxtaposed with middling peripheral stats.

There might not be a better location than Seattle for this type of pitcher, though. According to the Bill James Handbook, Safeco Field suppressed run-scoring six percent and home runs seven percent compared to a neutral park over the 2007 to 2009 seasons. Safeco’s particularly rough on righty power, with a 91 HR park factor. Further, the Mariners’ home park had a 96 HR/FB park factor from 2006 to 2009.

Defense plays a role, too. In 2009, Seattle led the majors in team Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved. While the M’s aren’t setting the gold standard with the leather this season, the club is still playing above-average D — 12th in UZR and seventh in DRS. The Washburn/Vargas-type pitcher puts the ball in play often, so being backed by swift defenders clearly helps.

Like Washburn, Vargas is a low-K, fly ball-centric starter whose deficiencies are masked quite well by his home park and a group of strong defensive players. Fly balls, while more damaging overall, do have a lower BABIP than grounders, and Vargas induces plenty of BABIP-killing infield flies (13.8 IF/FB% for his career, while the MLB average is slightly over seven). So maybe his BABIP won’t quite rise to the .300 range.

Even if that’s the case, Vargas, much like Washburn last year, is primed for a good deal of regression. It’s highly unlikely that he continues to allow hits on balls in play or homers on fly balls at such a low clip, or strand so many runners on base. The 27-year-old is suited well for his environment, and if there’s anywhere he can succeed in the AL, it’s with the Mariners. But Vargas is more middle-of-the-road starter than breakout performer.