Gomes or Heisey in LF?
At 39-33, the Cincinnati Reds currently sit one game back of the St. Louis Cardinals for the division lead in the National League Central. Cincy’s starting pitchers (12th in the NL in xFIP) and ‘pen arms (11th) haven’t really stood out, and the defense has been middle-of-the-pack (eighth in UZR). The offense is the only unit to rate in the top half of the Senior Circuit, as Reds hitters rank second in Park-Adjusted Batting Runs.
Jonny Gomes is doing his part at the plate, slugging .285/.342/.491 with a .352 wOBA in 243 plate appearances. The erstwhile Ray has contributed +4.3 runs with the bat so far, drawing the vast majority of starts in left field for the Reds. During the interleague portion of Cincinnati’s schedule, Gomes has mostly DH’d. Unfortunately, that’s not an option the rest of the year. Once you consider Gomes’ lumbering defense, the Reds might be costing themselves runs by playing him over rookie Chris Heisey.
During his big league career, the 6-1, 225 pound Gomes has a -24.7 UZR/150 in left field and a -16.2 UZR/150 in right field. Pro-rated to 150 defensive games, Total Zone has him at -15.9 runs in left and -24.3 runs in right. Few players in the game punt as much value with the leather — despite Gomes’ quality hitting, he has contributed just 0.1 Wins Above Replacement this season.
Heisey, meanwhile, is considered a much more well-rounded prospect. A 17th-round pick out of Division III Messiah (Pa.), Heisey hit a combined .296/.367/.459 in the minors while rating very well in center and the outfield corners per Total Zone. Prior to 2010, Baseball America called the 25-year-old a “plus defender in the outfield corners.” Heisey projects as an above-average defender in a corner spot, and he reminds me of a David DeJesus-type.
So, how do the two match up? Let’s take a look at Gomes’ and Heisey’s rest-of-season CHONE projections. Offensively, Gomes projects as about +.014 runs above average per plate appearance. Heisey has just 56 plate appearances at the MLB level, with a .413 wOBA. His rest-of-season CHONE forecasts him as -.012 runs below average per plate appearance. If each receives, say, 300 PA from here on out, Gomes would add a little more than four runs above average with the bat while Heisey would be about four runs below average.
Offensively, advantage Gomes. But it’s extremely difficult to envision a scenario in which Heisey doesn’t make up that eight run difference in offensive value with the leather. CHONE thinks that Heisey would actually rate as an above-average center fielder. Let’s say that Heisey rates as a +10 run defender in left per 150 games and Gomes a negative 15 (which is probably generous). If each plays something like 80 more defensive games this season, Heisey would add roughly five runs in value, while Gomes would surrender about eight runs.
Admittedly, the numbers I use are presented as a speculative exercise, but the Reds could be punting a half-win in value for the rest of 2010, perhaps more, by preferring Gomes over Heisey. The NL Central race is close at the moment, but CoolStandings gives the Reds a mild 32% chance of clinching a playoff berth. They’ll need to optimize the talent on hand to stay in the race, and it doesn’t appear as though the team is doing that in left field.
A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire.
As a Reds fan, I’ve been asking myself this question since Heisey came up. Anecdotally, the UZR data in this column seems completely borne out. Gomes is bad, and Heisey has very good range and an above average throwing arm. Offensively it’s difficult to simply project Heisey based on erratic starts and pinch-hit appearances (I believe three of his four homers have come as a pinch-hitter?) with any degree of accuracy. What Gomes shows with the bat (again anecdotally) is an improved approach, including a newfound ability to hit the ball to RF when called upon to do so. And for fans of intangibles and chemistry, Gomes has been a fiery presence and a leader this year. I know those concepts are generally ridiculed, but there is more to this than just the boxscores. Factor in the presence of Jayson Nix, a lefty bat who is also a superb LF defender, and things get even more muddled.
I suspect Heisey may be doomed to late-game replacement and pinch-hitting duties in the main with the occasional spot start unless Gomes gets injured. One can hope that Baker’s rote use of Heisey over Gomes in late innings when the Reds have a lead will at least somewhat ameliorate the defensive disparity.
Oh, and we can’t forget the pointless, but seemingly imminent, signing of Sarge, Jr. Ugh.
Do any of the Reds pitchers even have a 45% ground ball rate? It seems that every one of their pitchers has fly ball tendencies, so it wouldn’t be as easy as just starting Gomes on days when a worm-burner’s on the mound… Still though, the numbers you’re throwing out there for Heissey are highly speculative. Gomes has proven he can hit Major League pitching at a very high level, Heissey has not. Solid (not great) hitting minor league prospects often come to the show and just can’t cut it at the plate, so their defense becomes irrelevant.
Yes. Mike Leake, and (surprisingly enough) Francisco Cordero.
While looking at these numbers youve thrown out, it appears that Heisey’s defense will make him a slightly better option than Gomes. But what I wonder about is how pitchers would treat players like Scott Rolen and Jay Bruce when Gomes is not in the game. Would removing Gomes and inserting Heisey (most likely at the bottom of the order) cause pitchers to avoid Rolen and/or Bruce and give them fewer pitches to hit so that they could attack lesser hitters like Stubbs, Hernandez, and Heisey? Is there even a way to measure the effect on the rest of the lineup by removing Gomes? If removing Gomes would indirectly lessen the value brought by other players bats, would that be offset by better defense? Also, E Dub brings up a good point, Gomes has been an emotional leader for the team and his high energy can help rally his teammates when they are down. This may not be measureable, but it can be an important intangible for a team with young players that need some leadership.
Is a speculative half win in value worth the risk of Heisey not living up to being an everyday player? Its hard to say, but the one thing I can say is I am glad the Reds are in the race and have a shot to be the team to turn it around after so many years of losing.
The plus side of someone like Sarge Jr. is that he will absolutely not clog up the bases.
You seem to take an unequivocal stance on this 1/2 win at the end of your piece.
Gomes is pretty much at his prime and it is possible that he might be in the process of putting up his best season he will ever put up, again. Gomes may not have reached his peak yet this year. Also it is noted above Gomes slightly improved approach to the AB this year. He also is in better shape than years past. Still sucks at D, but maybe is better.
To suggest replacing a stable vet with some upside with a much less experienced player and act like there won’t be some disruption is short sighted. There are a lot of maybes in your analysis and you failed to consider the maybe your projections are rather optimistic and overly certain…… because of Heisey’s lack of MLB data there is a wider window of error in projecting his play than Gomes.
This is something good managers have intuition on. Prove it to me…..sometimes this patience is rewarded. Sometimes it is not.
The Reds have a strength, it is offense. You need to be pretty convincing to say, to hell with one of our productive bats, let’s play Heisley.
What about getting Heisey some playing time in CF over Drew Stubbs? Perhaps a 3 player platoon of sorts between two positions, playing the hot hand, taking advantage of splits and etc. Stubbs has a negative defensive rating currently in CF, and while small sample size applies obviously, perhaps playing Heisey in CF some shouldn’t be out of the question either.
Who is Jayson NIx? Laynce?
No, no way. We cannot do without Gomes’ bat in the lineup. Defensively speaking, yes, Heisey over Gomes. Offensively, we have a hard enough time scoring runs. Gomes is the most clutch batter on the team and the average with RISP is all that matters. Compelling argument, but Gomes is a better option in LF.
Gomes is every bit the butcher that Adam Dunn was in left field, and he won’t finish with the offensive numbers that Dunn did in any of his years here, although he might hit .265 or so.
Just a perfect example of how a player is glorified when the team wins and is the scapegoat when the team loses, especially for a number of years.
Jonny Gomes is much need in the line up.He gets the team up when they need it most.All teams need a player like him in the game.That’s what it’s all about. The team spirit is what makes a team good or Great. Jonny Gomes has that and that’s something the Reds need.Does Heisey have the same spirit? I don’t think so.
Do a midseason trade, Gomes for an AL pitcher. Its a win-win.
Gomes win – he gets playing time, based on his bat, rather than his glove as DH. He can still develop his bat. He can be a fill in outfielder, spelling those that need a day off. Or, if he is truly lucky, he can go to a club with a speedy/good cover CF to let his “zone of responsibilty” shrink a bit.
Cincy – They get a pitcher (whom to be determined later). Yes, Chapman will be up. But, his minor league stats arent exactly stunning. Cueto, Volzquez (sp) are the future.. Arroyo, Harang are the present. Another arm would be nice. Especially if it specializes in groundballs, or at least in not giving up the longball. Doesnt have to be a big name. Not even a “long term name”. But, if it can be flipped at the end of the season for prospects, or .. whatever.. either you traded Gomes for prospects, or a pitcher. Either way, both sides win.