This past December, the Toronto Blue Jays ended a 15-year relationship with Roy Halladay by shipping him to the Phillies for a bounty of young talent including RHP Kyle Drabek, C Travis d’Arnaud and OF Michael Taylor (who was then swapped to Oakland for 1B Brett Wallace). Predictably, Doc is dominating in the Senior Circuit — in addition to tossing a perfect game against Florida on May 29th, Halladay leads the universe in starting pitcher WAR (3.2) and xFIP (2.93).

But you may be surprised to find that without Halladay, the Jays still boast one of the best starting rotations in the game. Collectively, Toronto’s starters have a 4.06 xFIP. Among AL clubs, that trails only the Twins (4.04) and their Jedi-like ability to avoid ball four.

Once a lukewarm prospect seemingly destined to be known as “not Troy Tulowitzki,” Ricky Romero is pitching like one of the better starters in the bigs. The 25-year-old lefty, taken with the 6th overall pick in the 2005 draft, owns a 3.14 xFIP on the season. Only Doc has a better mark among qualified big league starters. He’s punching out over a batter per inning (9.19 K/9), displaying decent control (3.38 BB/9) and burning worms (56.9 GB%). In 255.1 career innings, Romero has a 3.81 xFIP. It remains to be seen whether he can continue to pitch at an elite level, but at worst the Cal State Fullerton product looks like a comfortably above-average starter.

Shaun Marcum, returning from Tommy John surgery, has a 3.77 xFIP. The 28-year-old righty has whiffed 7.4 batters per nine frames, with 2.1 BB/9. A supplemental first-rounder in the 2007 draft, Brett Cecil is showing promise as well. Cecil was a strong ground ball pitcher in the minors (59.7 GB%, according to Minor League Splits). While that hasn’t carried over to the majors yet (42 GB%), the 23-year-old has a 4.02 xFIP in 2010, with 7.25 K/9 and 2.17 BB/9.

Romero, Marcum and Cecil have a few things in common. They rely heavily upon their secondary stuff, put fewer pitches in the strike zone than the big league average and garner plenty of swings on pitches thrown off the plate:

Romero supplements his 90-91 MPH fastball with a high-80’s cutter, a low-80’s slider, a low 70’s curve and a devastating mid-80’s changeup. Marcum’s 86-87 MPH “heat” is backed up by a mid-80’s cutter, a low-70’s curve and a low-80’s change. Cecil’s 89-90 MPH fastball is enhanced by a mid-80’s slider, a mid-70’s curve and a low-80’s change. On a per-pitch basis, this trio’s breaking and off-speed stuff has been stellar:

The changeup is a big pitch for all three — Romero (26.4 percent), Marcum (22.4 percent) and Cecil (24.6 percent) pull the string often.

Brandon Morrow shares the above trio’s tendency to put fewer pitches in the zone (45.2 percent) and induce lots of outside swings (31.3 percent), but he has gone to his 93-94 MPH fastball about 64 percent of the time. The former Cal star, who went back and forth between roles (starter? reliever?) with the M’s enough to make Hamlet groan, is now firmly a starter. The 25-year-old’s ERA (6.00) looks ghastly, but his xFIP (4.12) is much more palatable. Morrow’s control remains maddening (5.37 BB/9). However, he does have 10.42 K/9 and an 11.5 percent swinging strike rate (8-8.5 percent MLB average). It’s pretty hard to notice the positives when 35 percent of balls put in play are falling for hits, though.

ZiPS projects that the Jays’ top four starters will regress somewhat but continue to perform well for the rest of 2010 — a 4.23 FIP for Romero, 4.01 for Marcum, 4.38 for Cecil and 4.26 for Morrow (though that projection has him splitting time between the rotation and the ‘pen).

Marc Rzepczynski (4.29 preseason ZiPS) could contribute at some point after missing time with a broken finger. Jesse Litsch, another Tommy John survivor, is nearing a return. Dustin McGowan’s shoulder woes have derailed his career, though he’s still trying to work his way back. Halladay trade piece Drabek is performing well at Double-A. Zach Stewart (picked up in last year’s Scott Rolen deal) is scuffling at the same level, but he’s well-regarded, too. Luis Perez is a smallish lefty who gets plenty of grounders. Chad Jenkins and Henderson Alvarez show promise a little further down the minor league ladder.

It will be years before the Halladay deal can be fully evaluated. But happily, the Blue Jays have no shortage of promising young pitching talent within the organization.

Perhaps more than any other pitcher in the game, Joel Zumaya is associated with radar gun readings. After every fastball that the Detroit righty throws, flames literally shooting down his tattooed arms, fans turn to see if Zumaya cracked the triple digits.

The Tigers’ 11th round pick in the 2002 draft was developed as a starting pitcher, but he was shifted to the ‘pen upon reaching the majors. His rookie season back in 2006 was excellent — averaging 98.6 MPH with his vaunted fastball, Zumaya had 10.48 K/9, 4.54 BB/9 and a 3.93 xFIP. His control wasn’t great, but he garnered swinging strikes 13.4 percent of the time (9.3 percent MLB average for relievers) and compiled 1.9 WAR in 83.1 innings pitched. Zumaya’s heater wasn’t just a high-velocity novelty act — it was worth +1.43 runs per 100 pitches thrown.

After dominating hitters in ’06, Zumaya spent the better part of the next three seasons on the surgeon’s table or on the rehab trail. Joel’s injury woes actually began during the 2006 postseason, as he missed part of the ALCS with forearm and wrist inflammation suffered by rocking a little too hard on “Guitar Hero.” He then ruptured a tendon in his right middle finger in May of 2007, requiring surgery that sidelined him until August.

That off-season, Zumaya injured his shoulder moving boxes in his father’s attic as a California wildfire approached. He went under the knife again to repair his separated shoulder. Zumaya didn’t pitch in the majors until June of 2008, but he was shut down with a stress fracture in his shoulder in September. Last year, he began the season on the DL with shoulder soreness and then had yet another procedure on his shoulder in August.

When Zumaya did take the mound from 2007-2009, he wasn’t effective. He struck out 8.07 batters per nine frames, issued 6.24 BB/9 and had a 5.40 xFIP in 88 combined frames. After looking like a shut-down reliever during his rookie year, an ailing Zumaya contributed all of -0.2 WAR from ’07 to ’09. He still threw hard, averaging 97.5 MPH in 2007 and 2008 and 99.3 MPH in 2009, but hitters didn’t tremble at the prospect of getting a Zumaya fastball. The pitch had a +0.71 runs/100 value in ’07, but declined to -0.86 in ’08 and -0.94 last year.

In 2010, however, Zumaya again looks like a relief ace. In 26.2 innings, he has 9.79 K/9, 1.69 BB/9 and a 2.97 xFIP. With 1.1 WAR, the 25-year-old trails just Jonathan Broxton among relievers. Chucking his fastball (averaging 98.4 MPH) a career-high 84.2 percent of the time, Zumaya has a +2.48 runs/100 value with the heat. Joel is getting first pitch strikes 66.7 percent, and batters are chasing plenty of pitches — his outside swing percentage is 31.5, compared to a career 24.4 percent average and the 25.7 percent big league average for relievers.

I have no idea if Zumaya can remain healthy. Given his lengthy injury history and the stress that he puts on his shoulder with each searing fastball, he could be a ticking time bomb. But whatever the future holds, Zumaya’s pitching like one of the best relievers in the bigs right now.

Once a cherished prospect, ranked among the top 10 farm talents in the game by Baseball America before the 2002 season, Carlos Pena took a circuitous route to major league success. The 10th overall pick in the 1998 draft drifted through the Texas, Oakland and Detroit organizations, putting up full-season wOBAs in the .330s and .340’s — hardly standout marks for a first baseman.

Released by the Tigers in March of 2006, Pena toiled at the Triple-A level for the Yankees (who cut him loose in August) and the Red Sox. He inked a one-year, $800,000 minor league deal with Tampa Bay for 2007 and proceeded to post a .430 wOBA that season. The Rays rewarded Pena with a three-year, $24.125 million deal, buying out two years of arbitration and his first free agent year . Pena put up a .374 wOBA in both 2008 and 2009, but the free-agent-to-be is hardly having an ideal walk year in 2010.

In 189 plate appearances, the 32-year-old is batting .189/.307/.377, with a .304 wOBA. While his walk rate is still solid at 13.8 percent, it’s down from his 15-16 percent marks from 2007-2009. Pena had Isolated Power figures of .345 in ’07, .247 in ’08 and .310 in ’09, but his ISO sits at a comparatively mild .189 this year. To this point, he has been sub-replacement-level, with -0.1 WAR. What gives?

Over the ’07 to ’09 seasons, Pena showed quality plate discipline. He swung at a lower-than-average rate of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone — 19.8 percent in ’07, 20.8 in ’08 and 23.6 in ’09, while the MLB average was around 25 percent those years. Pena let it rip on in-zone pitches, with Z-Swing marks well above the big league norm, but he rarely got himself out on junk pitches off the plate.

This year, however, Pena has hacked at 31.5 percent of out-of-zone offerings (27.7 percent MLB average in 2010). It could be a coincidence, but perhaps pitchers have taken note of his uncharacteristic eagerness to chase. Opponents have put just 41.8 percent of pitches in the strike zone against Pena, compared to the 49-51 percent range from ’07 to ’09 and the 47.6 percent MLB average this season.

He’s making more (presumably weak) contact with those pitches out of the zone — 55.7 percent, compared to 42.5 percent in ’07, 48.7 percent in ’08 and 39.6 percent in ’09. The result of Pena’s expanded zone and higher out-of-zone contact rate is more 0-and-1 counts or balls put in play on the first pitch: his first pitch strike percentage is 64.6, way above his marks of 51.8 percent in ’07, 58.2 in ’08 and 55.1 in ’09 (58 percent MLB average).

Normally a prodigious pull hitter, Pena hasn’t lashed the ball to the right side with the same gusto this year:

He’s hitting fewer line drives, grounding out far more than usual and popping the ball up at a rate well above the big league average. The result is a .373 wOBA on pulled pitches, a far cry from his previous work and 26 points below the average for lefty batters.

Odds are, Carlos Pena won’t continue to hold a .214 BABIP and a wOBA that might get him confused with Ramiro Pena — Carlos’ rest-of-season ZiPS projection is .231/.354/.494, with a .371 wOBA. But clearly, he’s not helping his free agent stock right now. If Pena wants to get paid, he needs to show more restraint and start roping the ball to the pull field once again.

New York Yankees right-hander A.J. Burnett was rolling along last night against the Minnesota Twins, whiffing five batters, walking two and trading zeros with Scott Baker through five innings. And then, for the first time in the short history of Target Field, the rains came and delayed the action. The game was eventually suspended and will be picked up today.

Burnett pounded the zone with his fastball, tossing 35 of his 50 heaters for strikes (70 percent). But while Mother Nature threw a nasty curveball last night, Burnett missed the mark with his hammer — just 10 of 23 curves garnered a strike (43 percent).

According to our Pitch Type Values going back to the 2002 season, Burnett’s deuce has been one of the best offerings in the game. Per 100 pitches thrown, the low-80’s breaking pitch has been worth +1.6 runs above average. Over the 2007-2009 seasons, Burnett’s curve had runs/100 values of +2.03, +1.23 and +1.47, respectively. And he went to the pitch often. Never known for his changeup, Burnett used his curve 26.3 percent in ’07, 29.2 percent in ’08 and 31.1 percent last season.

In 2010, however, A.J. can’t seem to find his plus curveball. The pitch has a -0.14 runs/100 value. According to Pitch F/X data from texasleaguers.com, Burnett’s curve has been thrown for a strike only 47.9 percent of the time this year, compared to 56.4 percent in 2009 (the MLB average is about 58 percent). Batters have whiffed at 12.1 percent of curveballs thrown in 2010, a significant decline from last season’s 16.7 percent whiff rate (11.6 percent MLB average).

Not getting results with the curve, Burnett appears to have lost confidence in the pitch. He has thrown his breaking ball 23.5 percent of the time, preferring to go to his 93-94 MPH fastball on nearly three-quarters of his pitches. Burnett has typically tossed his fastball about two-thirds of the time, but his 2010 heater usage has few peers — among starting pitchers logging at least 50 innings pitched, Burnett trails only Colorado’s Aaron Cook and Seattle’s Doug Fister in fastball percentage.

Burnett’s four-seamer and sinker have been decent, with a combined run value right around the big league average. But those pitches don’t induce nearly as many swings and misses as breaking stuff. Burnett’s four-seamer has been whiffed at 6.4 percent (6 percent MLB average) and the sinker has a 5.2 whiff percentage (5.4 percent MLB average).

As a result, A.J. isn’t getting K’s like he usually does. Burnett has 6.39 K/9, his lowest mark since 2000 with the Marlins and nearly two punch outs per nine frames lower than his career average (8.3 K/9). The 33-year-old’s swinging strike rate is just seven percent, compared to the 8.3 percent MLB average and Burnett’s 10.2 percent mark since 2002. A.J.’s 83.2 percent contact rate sits well above the 80-81 percent big league average and his 76.5 percent clip dating back to ’02. Since inking a five-year, $82.5 million deal with the Yankees prior to 2009, Burnett hasn’t fooled batters near as much.

His 2010 xFIP (4.35) is similar to his 2009 mark (4.29), as Burnett has walked fewer batters and induced more ground balls compared to last season. But he isn’t pitching like the high-octane starter we came to know in Florida and Toronto. For A.J. to start getting more K’s, he’s going to have to rediscover his curveball.

Expected to finish no better than fourth place in the ultra-competitive American League East, the Toronto Blue Jays currently boast a 27-20 record, just a half-game behind the New York Yankees for second place in the division.

The Jays have gotten quality performances from both the rotation (4.15 xFIP, third in the AL) and the bullpen (4.00 xFIP, also third in the AL). But perhaps most surprisingly, Toronto leads the Junior circuit in runs scored, with 247. That total is due in part to timely hitting that almost certainly won’t persist — the Jays are batting .232/.289/.422 as a team with the bases empty, but have crushed to the tune of .268/.347/.537 with ducks on the pond. Based on the club’s .339 team weighted on-base average, Toronto’s offense should have churned out 228 runs so far — fourth in the AL.

So, the offense has been good, but fortunate to tally so many hits with runners on base. There’s another bizarre aspect to the Jays’ offensive attack this season, though — they’re swinging from the heels and making hard, loud contact.

As a whole, Toronto’s hitters have chased 31.1 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. That’s the highest mark in the AL and is well north of the 27.6 percent major league average in 2010. The Jays also lead the league in cuts taken on in-zone pitches, letting it rip 68.5 percent of the time a pitcher puts one over the plate (63.6 percent MLB average this season).

Taking such an aggressive approach, the Jays have the highest first pitch strike percentage in the AL — they have put the ball in play on the first pitch or gotten behind in the count 0-and-1 60.7 percent of the time (58.1 percent MLB average).

Not surprisingly, Toronto’s batters haven’t drawn many walks, with an 8.3 BB% that ranks 10th in the AL. But the team is outslugging the competition with a .221 Isolated Power. The Red Sox rank a distant second, at .183.

Hard-hitting hackers include SS Alex Gonzalez, C John Buck and CF Vernon Wells. Take a look at their respective career averages in O-Swing and Z-Swing (since 2002), compared to their swing percentages in 2010. Also included: their 2010 ISO figures, compared to their pre-season CHONE and ZiPS projections:

The MLB average for O-Swing percentage has increased in recent years, but even as a percentage of the big league average, 2010 ranks as the most hack-tastic season for Buck and Wells. Gonzalez chased an even higher proportion of pitches out of the zone (compared to the MLB average) during his Marlins days.

Though not to the same extent as the three guys above, Jose Bautista is chasing more pitches than usual (23.4 O-Swing percentage, 18.2 career average). And, as Dave Cameron noted, he’s hitting for unprecedented power — Bautista has a .325 ISO. Prior to 2010, CHONE forecasted a .163 ISO and ZiPS projected a .162 ISO. New Jay Fred Lewis has gotten into the act as well, with a 28.7 O-Swing (20.5 career average) and a .186 ISO (.142 pre-season ISO from CHONE, .153 from ZiPS).

Of course, not every Toronto hitter with a more aggressive approach is thriving in the power department. 2B Aaron Hill has a 32 O-Swing percentage (22.2 career average), but a .156 ISO (.171 pre-season CHONE, .172 ZiPS). Adam Lind showed improved plate discipline in 2009, but his O-Swing is back up to 30 and his .169 ISO falls short of his pre-season CHONE (.209) and ZiPS (.211) marks. Lyle Overbay has swung at 23.3 percent of out-of-zone pitches (18 percent career average), with a .143 ISO (.153 pre-season CHONE, .165 ZiPS).

Moving forward, Gonzalez, Buck and Wells figure to come back down to Earth. Bautista probably hasn’t suddenly become a gargantuan power hitter, but his 2010 start can’t be ignored. With better luck on balls put in play and perhaps a few less cuts at junk pitches, Hill, Lind and Overbay should rebound:

A mid-90’s fastball. A biting, mid-80’s slider. A sturdy 6-3, 210 pound frame. Since his days as a prized Dodgers prospect, Edwin Jackson has been touted as a potential ace. However, Baseball America’s number four prospect prior to the 2004 season wore out his welcome in L.A. and wallowed in mediocrity as a Tampa Bay Ray.

Shipped to the Tigers in December of 2008, Jackson finally began to break through with a 3.5 WAR season in 2009. He joined his fourth organization this past winter as part of “The Big Trade,” with Jackson and Ian Kennedy going to the Diamondbacks, Austin Jackson, Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth and Phil Coke Detroit-bound and Curtis Granderson headed to the Bronx.

While a healthy, resurgent Kennedy is producing, Jackson’s 2010 season seemingly conjures up memories of his vexing Dodgers and Rays days. After surrendering five runs and getting taken deep twice in 7.2 innings pitched against the Blue Jays on Saturday, the 26-year-old righty owns a 6.28 ERA over his first ten starts. Jackson acquired the “underachiever” label over the years, with his results often falling short of his stuff. But beneath that ugly ERA, he has basically been the same guy who held his own in Detroit last year.

In 61.2 innings, Jackson has struck out 7.74 batters per nine innings, nearly a whiff per nine higher than his 2009 mark (6.77 K/9). He has issued 2.92 BB/9, almost identical to his walk rate with the Tigers (2.94 BB/9). And, after posting a 39.1 percent ground ball rate in ’09, Jackson has induced a grounder 47.3 percent of the time in 2010.

Jackson got a swinging strike 9.8 percent of the time as a Tiger, with a 79.2 percent contact rate. As a D-Back, he has garnered swinging strikes 11 percent and has a 76.1 percent contact rate (the MLB averages are roughly 8.5 percent and 81 percent, respectively). He’s also getting ahead in the count or inducing first pitch contact more, with his first pitch strike percentage rising from 54.5 percent in 2009 to 57.5 percent this season (58 percent MLB average).

Some of these “improvements” are due to Jackson’s switch from the American League to the National League. Derek Carty over at The Hardball Times conducted a study of pitchers switching leagues between 2004-2008 and found that AL pitchers going to the NL improved their K/9 by +0.57, decreased their BB/9 by -0.05 and lowered their RA/9 by -0.42. That helps explain the increase in Jackson’s K rate, swinging strikes and first pitch strikes, as well as his lowered contact rate. At worst, though, we could say he’s pitching as well as in 2009 and perhaps a bit better.

Sadly, that good work has been obscured by a bad luck trifecta of a lower-than-usual rate of stranding base runners, a high batting average on balls in play and an inflated home run per fly ball rate.

His LOB rate of 63.3 percent is well below his career 70.9 mark. Jackson has a .332 BABIP this year, compared to a .311 career average. He’s keeping the ball on the ground more, and grounders do have a higher BABIP than fly balls. It’s also true that Arizona’s infielders aren’t known as defensive wizards: 3B Mark Reynolds (career -7.6 UZR/150), SS Stephen Drew (-9), 2B Kelly Johnson (-5.3) and 1B Adam LaRoche (-3.4) all rate poorly by Ultimate Zone Rating. Even so, balls in play probably won’t continue to elude leather quite so often.

It’s also highly unlikely that Jackson continues to serve up so many homers. When hitters loft the ball, it’s leaving the park 16.4 percent of the time. Jackson’s career HR/FB rate is 10.2 percent, and the MLB average is about 11 percent.

Chase Field has a four-year HR/FB park factor of 106, meaning that closer to 12 percent of fly balls leave the yard in Arizona (taking the Chase HR/FB factor and multiplying it by the rate at which fly balls become home runs, 11 percent). So far, Jackson has been taken deep on eight of his 41 fly balls at home (19.5 HR/FB percentage). If Jackson had a 12 HR/FB percentage at Chase, he would have surrendered three less dingers–five, instead of eight. On the road, Jackson has given up a homer on two of his 20 fly balls (10 HR/FB%, close to the MLB average). While Jackson has served up 1.46 HR/9, that number “should” be about one per nine innings pitched.

While Jackson’s ERA might have Diamondbacks fans ready to label him a bust, he’s pitching as well as he ever has in the majors. His xFIP, based on K’s, walks and a normalized home run/fly ball rate, is 3.87. That ranks in the top 20 among NL starters tossing at least 50 innings. Jackson’s no ace, but he still looks like a solid starter after frustrating talent evaluators for years.

Last night, New York Mets starter John Maine toed the rubber at Nationals Park. Washington leadoff hitter Nyjer Morgan stepped into the box. Maine tossed an 85 MPH fastball high. Ball one. An 83 MPH offering with a little more tail missed on the outside corner. Ball two. Morgan squared to bunt on a fastball inside at 85, but thought better of it and pulled back. Ball three. Morgan showed bunt on another 85 MPH fastball but let it go by for a strike. Yet another 85 MPH fastball missed inside, and Morgan scampered to first base.

Maine slumped forward, hands on his knees, as Mets manager Jerry Manuel, pitching coach Dan Warthen and trainer Ray Ramirez walked to the mound. Manuel signaled for the lefty, Raul Valdes. And just like that, Maine’s night was over.

According to ESPNNewYork’s Adam Rubin, Manuel said after the game that he was “trying to protect his [Maine’s] best interests,” and he doesn’t “want to be responsible for a young man’s career.” Warthen said, “John’s a habitual liar in a lot of ways as far as his own health. He’s a competitor and a warrior and he wants to go out there and pitch. But you have to be smart enough to realize this guy isn’t right.” Maine, meanwhile, was peeved: “Look, I’ve felt pain for two years, but I’m over that…I don’t care about that. I’m well enough to pitch. I wanted to pitch. That’s the bottom line.”

The 29-year-old right-hander has dealt with a series of injury problems over the past three seasons. He was placed on the DL in August of 2008 with a right rotator cuff strain, returned to make three starts and was then shut down. In late September of ’08, he underwent surgery to remove a large bone spur from his right shoulder. Last year, he spent three months on the DL with right shoulder weakness. This year, Maine has battled left elbow soreness.

Maine, who’s scheduled to examined by doctors today, says he’s healthy enough to pitch. But whatever is ailing him, it’s clear that his performance is suffering.

From 2006-2008, Maine posted a 4.41 expected FIP (xFIP). He struck out 7.97 batters per nine innings, while issuing 3.74 BB/9. He had a 38.3 percent ground ball rate and a 43.4 percent fly ball rate. Maine’s average fastball velocity was 91 MPH in 2006, 91.2 MPH in 2007 and 92.1 MPH in 2008.

Unfortunately, Maine’s 2009 and 2010 showings look good only in comparison to those of Oliver Perez. He threw 81.1 frames in ’09, with 6.09 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and a 5.09 xFIP. His already-low ground ball rate fell to 35.1 percent, and his fly ball rate climbed to 43.7 percent.

This season, Maine is missing more lumber (8.85 K/9), but he hasn’t been able to locate (5.67 BB/9). Getting grounders just 26.5 percent of the time and allowing fly balls 52.1 percent, Maine has a 5.29 xFIP in 39.2 innings. He’s giving up 1.82 home runs per nine innings. Maine’s home run/fly ball rate (13.1%) might fall a bit, but he’s got the lowest rate of grounders and the third-highest rate of fly balls among starters with at least 30 innings pitched. With those numbers, homers are going to be a problem.

Take a look at his heater velocity since those injury problems started cropping up:

Maine’s overall fastball velocity in 2009 was 91.3 MPH. However, that figure declined directly before his June DL stint and after he returned in September. Maine averaged 91.7 MPH in April, 91.4 MPH in May and 90.4 MPH during his one June start. In three September starts and one October start, he averaged 90.6 MPH.

This year, Maine (throwing his fastball three-quarters of the time) is sitting just 88.6 MPH. During his big league career, he has a +0.26 run value per 100 pitches with the fastball. In 2010, however, it has been hammered for -0.85 runs per 100 thrown. Of course, that’s actually better than his changeup (-2.17) and slider (-3.89).

While his 77.9 percent contact rate bests the 80.9 percent MLB average and he’s getting swings on pitches outside of the strike zone 28.1 percent (27.5 percent MLB average), Maine hasn’t been able to throw strikes consistently. Just 45.7 percent of his pitches have been within the zone, which is two percentage points below the big league average. All three of his pitches have below-average strike rates: 61.4 for the fastball (64.4 MLB average), 57.4 for the changeup (60.7) and 55.3 for the slider (63.4).

It’s no surprise that a starter, lobbing high-80’s fastballs with spotty control and a sky-high fly ball rate, is getting throttled. Hopefully, Maine and the Mets can find the root cause of his struggles.

Injury info from the Baseball Injury Tool

Since the Minnesota Twins signed him for $180,000 as a product of the now defunct draft-and-follow system back in 2002, Evan Meek has both tantalized and frustrated his employers. But now, with his fourth organization, Meek may soon inherit a prominent role in the ‘pen.

A stocky 6-0, 220 pound right-hander known for touching the mid-90’s with his fastball, Meek was nevertheless released by the Twins in 2005 after he walked 36 batters in 18 innings in the Low-A Midwest League. The San Diego Padres picked up the Bellevue (Wash.) Community College product, stuck him in the starting rotation and watched him whiff (8.7 K/9) and walk (4.8 BB/9) the yard in the High-A California League in 2006. In August of ’06, Tampa Bay acquired Meek as the PTBNL in a deal for Russell Branyan. Shifted to relief in 2007, he punched out 9.3 batters per nine frames in the Double-A Southern League, but walked 4.6 per nine as well.

Tampa didn’t place Meek on the 40-man roster after the season, leaving him subject to the Rule V Draft. The Pittsburgh Pirates, impressed with Meek’s work in the Arizona Fall League, snagged him with the second overall pick in the Rule V proceedings.

For the first month of the 2008 season, Meek flailed to the tune of seven K’s, 12 walks and three wild pitches in 13 innings for Pittsburgh. He was behind in the count before you could say “Marmol”–Meek’s first pitch strike percentage was 44.3, compared to the 58 percent major league average.

Still, the Pirates were intrigued enough to work out a trade with the Rays so that Meek could be sent down to the minors. In 57.1 combined frames between Double-A Altoona and Triple-A Indianapolis, he punched out eight hitters per nine innings and induced a ground ball 60 percent of the time. Most importantly, Meek issued just 2.7 walks per nine innings.

Last season, Meek began the year back at Indy but got the big league call in late April. When he took the mound, the outcome of the game was already largely determined–Meek’s Leverage Index was 0.63, lowest among regular Pirates relievers. Showcasing 93 MPH heat, a hard 90 MPH cutter and low-80’s breaking stuff, Meek had 8.04 K/9 in 47 IP, burning worms at a 52.1% rate. But alas, control remained elusive. He walked 5.55 per nine frames, posting a 4.18 expected FIP (xFIP). A left oblique strain shut Meek down in mid-August.

In 2010, the 27-year-old has been a revelation. Sure, he has been lucky to post a 0.69 ERA in 26 innings pitched–he’s eventually going to surrender a home run, and he isn’t likely to strand 85.2 percent of base runners all season. But Meek has legitimately been one of the best ‘pen arms in the majors. With his fastball up a tick in velocity, he has 9.35 K/9, 2.42 BB/9 and a 52.2 GB%, owning a 2.83 xFIP that ranks within shouting distance of San Francisco’s Brian Wilson (2.77 xFIP) and Kansas City’s Joakim Soria (2.71 xFIP). That’s not to suggest that he’s suddenly on the same plane as the Giants’ mohawked stopper or the Mexicutioner, but Meek is pitching marvelously.

While he’s doing a slightly better job of locating this season, raising his percentage of pitches within the strike zone from 51.9 percent in ’09 to 53.1 percent in 2010, the big difference is that Meek is getting batters to chase his stuff off the plate for the first time. As a Rule V selection, Meek garnered outside swings just 13.2 percent of the time. Last year, his O-Swing was still below average, at 22.1 percent. But in 2010, he’s getting hitters to hack at 28.2 percent of his out-of-zone offerings.

As Meek continues to mow down hitters, he’s earning the trust of Pirates manager John Russell. In April, Meek’s Leverage Index was a custodian-level 0.66. But in May, his 1.66 LI trails only closer Octavio Dotel. He’s also being deployed often for multi-inning stints, with seven of his 19 appearances lasting a full two frames. It took a while, but Pittsburgh’s patience with Meek is paying dividends.

Apparently, Eric Chavez won’t be playing zombie #3 in the latest George Romero flick. With the announcement that Oakland designated Jack Cust for assignment, it appears that Chavez will take over DH duties in Oakland.

Cust was non-tendered by the A’s in December, then re-signed with the club for $2.65 million in January. The 31 year-old lefty batter is coming off of a mild season at the plate in 2009, as his wOBA fell to .342 (it was .371 in 2008 and .393 in 2007).

The former Diamondback, Rockie, Oriole and Padre still drew plenty of walks this past year, but took a cut at more pitches than in previous seasons:

2007: 13.8 Outside Swing%, 62.4 Z-Swing%, 20.7 BB%
2008: 15.3 Outside Swing%, 62.8 Z-Swing%, 18.6 BB%
2009: 17.5 Outside Swing%, 67.9 Z-Swing%, 15.2 BB%

As Dave Allen noted last July, Cust expanded his zone, seemingly in an attempt to make more contact. His whiff rate dropped from the 41 percent range to 36 percent and his contact rate rose from the mid-sixties to the high-sixties, but his power suffered. After posting Isolated Power figures of .248 in 2007 and .245 in 2008, his ISO dipped to .177 in 2009.

The phrase “power to all fields” may seem trite, but Cust certainly fit the description in 2007 and 2008. While he was above average when he pulled the ball, he mashed to the middle and opposite fields like few others. In 2009? He was still well above average on balls hit to the middle and opposite fields, but he didn’t pull the ball with much authority. Here are Cust’s spray numbers over the 2007-2009 seasons, as well as the league averages for lefty batters for context:

I highlighted Cust’s ’09 numbers on balls hit to left and balls pulled to the right. Cust’s opposite field hitting (.374 wOBA) remained very good relative to the league average for lefties (.316 wOBA), though obviously short of his .500+ wOBA marks on balls hit to left in 2007 and 2008. When Cust pulled the ball in ’09, his .377 wOBA came in well under the .399 league average and was a far cry from his .434 mark in 2007 and .464 figure in 2008.

As for 2010, CHONE, ZiPS and the FANS all project Cust to post a wOBA in the .360 range. Considering that Cust plays defense like his cleats are made of cinder blocks (career -20.4 UZR/150 in the outfield), he’s one of the few players who holds more value as a DH than a position player.

Cust could stay with the A’s if he clears waivers and accepts a minor league assignment. However, one obvious landing spot would be the south side of Chicago, where the White Sox are set to open 2010 with an underwhelming DH duo of Andruw Jones and Mark Kotsay. Jones and Kotsay project as sub-replacement-level at the DH spot, and Cust could be a two-win upgrade if he matches those offensive forecasts. Considering how tightly bunched the AL Central standings figure to be, Chicago shouldn’t let such a chance slip past them.

Chavez, meanwhile, will try to pick up the pieces of a career that has been shattered by back, shoulder and elbow injuries. Entering the last guaranteed year of a six-year, $66 million deal that was entirely defensible at the time, Chavez will pull down $12 million in 2010.

The memories might be hazy now, but the 32 year-old was once a force both in the field and at the plate, eclipsing the 5 WAR mark in 2001, 2003, 2004 and 2005. Chavez could be quickly relegated to spectator status by another injury, Jake Fox or Chris Carter, but it’s hard not to root for the guy.

The Chicago Cubs are in a liminal state. The club’s farm system has shown considerable improvement recently, with the emergence of prospects like Starlin Castro, Josh Vitters, Hak-Ju Lee, Brett Jackson, Andrew Cashner and Jay Jackson. But outside of Cashner and perhaps Castro, those guys aren’t ready for prime time.

At the major league level, the Cubs could once again be expensive and ordinary in 2010. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Chicago enters the season with a payroll topping $140 million. Despite spending big bucks, though, the North Siders have run-of-the-mill win totals from most projection systems. The FANS (78 wins), CHONE (79) and PECOTA (80) all call for a sub-.500 campaign. Oliver (86) is more optimistic, with a forecast that has the Cubs keeping pace with the Cardinals and staying in the Wild Card hunt.

The Cubs figure to be strong at the infield corners. Derrek Lee isn’t likely to eclipse 5 WAR again next year, but CHONE calls for a three win season. At third, Aramis Ramirez had a hard time staying on the field last year, suffering shoulder, back and calf injuries (he has been slowed by a triceps issue this spring, too). But if healthy, his potent bat should produce another 3+ WAR campaign. Both are very good players, but it’s hard to call either a huge bargain or a long-term asset: the 34 year-old Lee will pull down $13 million in 2010 and hits free agency after the season, and the 31 year-old Ramirez will earn $15.75 million this year, with a $14.6 million player option for 2011.

Up the middle, Ryan Theriot’s slick glove work and decent offense make him a good, if not breath-taking option at shortstop. He might slide over to second when Castro arrives, though he has some trade value as a guy with a few years of team control remaining. At the keystone, Jeff Baker and Mike Fontenot have the makings of an average duo.

Behind the dish, Geovany Soto looks like a great bet to bounce back in 2010. A plummeting BABIP obscured what was otherwise another season in which he displayed patience and pop at a premium position (and he’s skinny now!) CHONE forecasts a 3+ WAR season.

In the outfield, Kosuke Fukudome and Marlon Byrd are average to slightly above-average starters. And then, of course, there’s Alfonso Soriano in left, he of -0.7 WAR in 2009. The 34 year-old, hampered by calf and knee injuries in recent years, is owed $18 million annually over the 2010-2014 seasons. Even if there’s a dead cat bounce in Soriano’s performance, he’s going to be a drag on the bottom line for years to come. This is what happens when a team signs a free agent at or around his current market value, but then pays him that same rate years and years into the future, as if the player is a baseball version of Richard Alpert, impervious to the effects of aging.

On the bench, Xavier Nady is a fringe starter/good fourth outfielder, though a second Tommy John surgery that wiped away his 2009 season continues to give him problems. Manager Lou Pinella said that Nady might not be able to uncork a throw from the field until June, limiting him to pinch-hit duty. Sam Fuld, a 28 year-old with on-base chops and speed, could be the reserve outfielder called upon most often. Micah Hoffpauir will lace some extra-base hits, but limited defensive ability and so-so strike zone judgment curtail his value. Tyler Colvin, a 2006 first-rounder, could also enter the picture. A lack of plate discipline means he’s probably a long-term fourth outfielder. Koyie Hill will back up Soto at catcher.

Like Soriano, Carlos Zambrano is owed enough cash in the years to come to buy his own magical island. The 28 year-old will earn $17-18 million annually between 2010 and 2012, with a possible vesting option for 2013. He’s still a quality starter, but the mileage on Z’s arm belies his age, and shoulder, back and hamstring injuries over the past two years have kept him far from the 200 inning mark that he zipped by from 2003-2007.

Free agent-to-be Ted Lilly has been one of the better open market values over the past few seasons (providing $43.5 million in production from 2007-2009 while earning $24 million), but knee and shoulder injuries figure to sideline him in April. Ryan Dempster proved that his breakout 2008 was no fluke, providing another season of quality pitching. But, his salary ($12.5M in 2010, $13.5M in 2011, $14M player option for 2012) makes him more of a “get what you pay for” player than someone who provides cost savings. Randy Wells had a nifty rookie season, though his peripherals were more in line with a mid-to-low four’s ERA than the sparkling 3.05 mark that he posted. Former Pirate Tom Gorzelanny looks like the best bet of the back-end candidates, a group that also includes Jeff Samardzija, Sean Marshall and Carlos Silva.

In the bullpen, Carlos Marmol channeled Rick Vaughn last year, posting a sub-50 first-pitch strike percentage (58 percent MLB average). He’s absolutely filthy, but all of the free passes and plunked batters preclude him from relief ace status. Samardzija or Marshall could end up in the ‘pen, should they fall short of securing a rotation spot, and Cashner could arrive at some point this season. John Grabow is a slightly above replacement level reliever, yet he figures to occupy a late-inning role and earn a decent chunk of change ($7.5 million) over the next two years. Sadly, Angel Guzman (shoulder) has been dealt another career blow, and will miss the 2010 season. Keep an eye on Esmailin Caridad. The 26 year-old righty originally signed with the Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Central League, but the Cubs nabbed him during the ’07 off-season. A starter in the minors, Caridad impressed in relief last season. He seems better suited for ‘pen duty, given his impressive fastball and fringy secondary stuff.

Even in the most sanguine scenario, Chicago figures to pay Rolls Royce prices for Honda Civic production. There just aren’t a lot of players that you can point to and say, “man, is that guy a steal.” There are a couple of ominous long-term deals and several market-value contracts, with a few players who provide production at below-market prices sprinkled in. The Cubs are lacking in young, cost-controlled talent, something that the next wave of well-regarded prospects could fix. To contend in 2010, the team needs Ramirez, Soto and Zambrano to stay healthy, while hoping that Soriano can rise from the ranks of the undead.