The race between Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp for National League MVP is so very close. Most analysts lean toward Kemp: he played 11 more games, hit six more home runs, stole seven more bases and ended the season with a higher WAR (8.7 vs. 7.8 for Braun).
Let me tell you why Ryan Braun should be the MVP.
The Colorado Rockies have been active in the hot stove league although they have yet to make a trade or sign a free agent. They have holes to fill, particularly at second base, having lost Mark Ellis to the Los Angeles Dodgers, and on the mound. The Rockies made a run at Jamey Carroll — who played at Coors Field in 2006 and 2007 — to fill the hole at second but Carroll signed with the Minnesota Twins to play shortstop.
Reports out of Denver have the Rockies aggressively pursuing a trade for Martin Prado of the Atlanta Braves to be their everyday second baseman. So far, the Rockies have offered outfielder Seth Smith for Prado but the Braves apparently want more. Two names floated to be included in a Prado-to-Rockies deal are rookie outfielder Charlie Blackmon or minor league outfielder Tim Wheeler but the Rockies have said no, so far. The Rockies are also one of eight teams who’ve expressed interest in former Cleveland Indians center fielder Grady Sizemore. The Rockies would move Sizemore to left field, to make it easier on his oft-injured knees. Although reports have not been specific on this, I assume a Sizemore-to-left move would then shift Gold Glove outfielder Carlos Gonzalez to right.
Through all of these rumors, the Rockies have made it clear that center fielder Dexter Fowler is off-limits. Not available. Ring a different doorbell. Why? Why would the Rockies refuse to trade Fowler if it meant getting Prado or another necessary piece?
I don’t know why.
Yesterday the BBWWA announced the winners of the American League and National League Rookies of the Year. Tampa Bay Rays starter Jeremy Hellickson won in the American League; Atlanta Braves closer Craig Kimbrel won in the National League. Kimbel’s vote was unanimous: all 32 first place votes. Hellickson’s was not; he garnered 17 first place votes out of total of 28.
Over the last eleven seasons, only two other Rookies of the Year won unanimously: Evan Longoria (Tampa Bay Rays) in 2008 and Albert Pujols (St. Louis Cardinals) in 2001. And, interestingly enough, the other winners in those years were only one vote shy of winning unanimously: Geovany Soto (Chicago Cubs) in 2008 and Ichiro Suzuki (Seattle Mariners) in 2001.
Pujols and Ichiro stand out for yet another reason related to their rookie seasons, a reason that sets them apart from Longoria and Soto. Pujols accumulated 7.7 WAR in 2001, the highest of any rookie since 1975, when Fred Lynn of the Boston Red Sox recorded a 8.1 WAR. Ichiro accumulated 6.1 WAR in 2001, the second highest for any rookie since Mike Piazza of the Los Angeles Dodgers posted a 7.6 WAR in his rookie season of 1993.
News broke late Tuesday that the Philadelphia Phillies were on the verge of signing Ryan Madson to a 4-year year/$44 million deal. By Wednesday, there was news that the deal was “waiting approval” by Phillies ownership or “only a deal in principle” or “falling apart.”
However this plays out, the idea of a 4-year/$44 million deal for a top-line closer is likely to set the standard against which other closer deals are negotiated this winter. We’re looking at you, Jonathan Papelbon.
What should we make of a possible 4-year/$44 million deal for a pitcher like Ryan Madson? Several things.
If you spent last week in a World Series hangover, or caught up in the excitement of the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger Awards, you may have missed news about the five-game series in Taiwan between a team of MLB “All-Stars” and the Taipei National Team.
The headlines give you the basics: the MLB team won all five games, most of which were fairly competitive. The players enjoyed the cross-cultural experience, as did the Taiwanese fans, particularly the children who participated in skills clinics with the likes of Pablo Sandoval. Here’s a taste of the atmosphere at the ballpark in Taipei.
But the headlines don’t tell the real story. We need to go behind the headlines to unlock the secrets of the All-Star Taiwan Series: just who are these players masquerading as MLB All-Stars.
The news out of Los Angeles is that the Dodgers have inked outfielder/first baseman Juan Rivera to a one-year guaranteed deal worth $4.5 million, with a club option for 2013. This deal is puzzling for several reasons — among them Rivera’s age, his offensive production over the last two seasons, his mediocre defense and the ramifications for other potential Dodger moves.
Tony LaRussa announced yesterday that he will not return to manage the St. Louis Cardinals in 2012. He used the word “retirement” so we’ll take him at his word that after 5,097 Major League Baseball games, LaRussa’s managed his last one.
You’re likely familiar with his career highlights:
• 2,738 career wins as manager, 3rd most after Connie Mack and John McGraw
• .537 career winning percentage as manager
• 3 World Series titles as manager
• 3 American League pennants as manager
• 3 National League pennants as manager
• 14 postseasons as manager
• 4 Manager of the Year Awards (with another one likely this year)
But these numbers only begin to scratch the surface of Tony LaRussa’s managerial career. Let’s take a closer look.
There’s been quite a bit of chatter on blogs and Twitter about Texas Rangers manager Ron Washington’s decision to bat Mike Napoli seventh in World Series Games 1, 2 and 3 — and eighth in Games 4 and 5. This author has been a part of the chatter, going so far as to start a Napoli Support Group with the Twitter hashtag #BatNapoliHigher.
So why the hubbub?
Napoli has been the Rangers best hitter in the postseason. In 51 at bats, he has 16 hits, including one (game-winning) double and three home runs. His postseason slash through 16 games is .314/.383/.570. Napoli’s playoff run comes on the heels of his superb regular season: .320/.414/.631 in 432 at-bats with a wOBA of .444 and a wRC+ of 178. He led the Rangers in every one of those offensive categories.
It’s not every day that you see a manager bat his best offensive player seventh or eighth in the lineup — especially in the World Series.
Much will be written today and in the coming days about Tony LaRussa’s pitching changes and strategic moves in the eighth inning of World Series Game 5 on Monday night. Others here at FanGraphs will provide you will the gory details.
This post takes a look back at LaRussa’s bullpen management over the 16 years he’s been the skipper for the St. Louis Cardinals. It’s a follow-up post to the one I wrote last Thursday, aptly titled The Untold Story of LaRussa’s Bullpen Management. In last week’s post, I looked at the number of innings pitched by Cardinals relievers each season between 1996 and 2011 and found only four seasons where Cardinals relievers had pitched more innings than the National League per team average. I also examined the number of pitching changes called for by LaRussa during the 2004, 2006 and 2011 postseasons–the years the Cardinals played in the World Series.
I concluded, based on that information, that LaRussa’s reputation for over-managing the Cardinals’ bullpen was not fully supported by the facts. Several readers noted in the comments that looking only at total innings pitched by relievers didn’t tell the whole story. The issue, the readers noted, wasn’t so much how early LaRussa pulled his starting pitcher to get to the first reliever, but how many relievers he used to get from the starter to the end of the game. Or, to put it another way, what was the average number of innings pitched per Cardinals relief appearance as compared to the average for all National League teams.
I’ve now analyzed that data and agree that it paints a more complete portrait of LaRussa’s bullpen management style. Indeed, it confirms the view that LaRussa has been one of the most–if not the most–aggressive bullpen managers in the National League over the past 16 seasons.
Let’s take a look.
One of narratives leading up to Game 1 of the World Series emphasized the Cardinals’ and the Rangers’ heavy use of their bullpens in the Division and League Championship Series. We were told to expect pitching changes early and often, especially from Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa, who has a reputation for micromanaging his pitching staff to get just the right match-up.
In Game 1, LaRussa did not disappoint. Cardinals starter Chris Carpenter threw six innings, giving up five hits and two runs. After LaRussa pulled Carpenter for a pinch hitter in the bottom of the sixth, he used five relievers out of the bullpen to pitch the final three innings. The ‘pen acquitted itself well: three innings, one hit, no runs.
In the Division Series, the Cardinals’ starting pitchers threw 30 total innings to 14 for the bullpen. That’s 68% of the innings for the starters; 32% for the relievers. Over the five games played, LaRussa averaged 3.2 pitching changes per game.
In the NLCS, Cardinals starting pitchers were on the mound for only 24.1 innings to the bullpen’s 21.2 innings, a ratio of 53% to 47% over the six games played. LaRussa made an average of 4.67 pitching changes per game.
Despite LaRussa’s reputation, his bullpen management in the NLCS is the exception, not the rule, of his reign as the Cardinals skipper.
Let me explain.