Pitching has become the indisputable strength of the Arizona Diamondbacks system. The Top 10 features seven pitchers and the first four have ceilings of No. 1 or 2 starters. Despite having a bevy of high picks in the 2009 amateur draft and using most of them on hitters, Arizona lacks premium offensive prospects after many of those selections faltered or grew significant warts. All in all, though, this is an impressive system that just needs a little more depth to become elite. *Reliever Bryan Shaw was not considered a prospect due to service time.

1. Trevor Bauer, RHP
BORN: Jan. 17, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 1 season (Played at A+/AA in ’11)
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round, UCLA (3rd overall)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA

SCOUTING REPORT: Bauer was selected third overall in the 2011 draft and had the talent to be taken first overall, so Arizona was no doubt thrilled to get him. He has a diverse repertoire that includes a fastball that can touch the mid-90s, a plus curveball, slider, and changeup. He’s already established himself as a workhorse pitcher, pitching 100+ innings in each of his three seasons at UCLA. Bauer has an unorthodox delivery that worries some scouts while others point to Tim Lincecum as an example of someone who made “different” work out pretty darn well.

YEAR IN REVIEW: Arizona’s No. 1 prospect posted an eye-popping 1.25 ERA with 203 Ks in 136.2 innings during his junior season at UCLA. He then signed with the Diamondbacks in time to make seven starts in the minors. All told, he pitched more than 160 innings in 2011, which is why he did not head off to the Arizona Fall League with a lot of the other top college picks. Bauer had some success in pro ball by striking out a lot of batters. His 7.56 ERA (3.44 FIP) in four double-A starts was tainted by a BABIP-allowed of .429 (as well as the small-sample size). The right-hander struggled a bit with his control (4.32 BB/9).

YEAR AHEAD: It’s unclear what plans the organization currently has for Bauer. A safe bet would be to see him begin the year in double-A, pitching along side Tyler Skaggs. There was some talk of Bauer making his MLB debut in 2011 but it ultimately did not happen. Chances are good that fans in Arizona will be treated to his first big league appearance in 2012. He’s not far at all from being MLB-ready.

CAREER OUTLOOK: Bauer has the makings of a No. 1 starter and should be no worse than a No. 2, assuming he stays healthy – and there is no reason to suspect that he won’t. Arizona currently has a very exciting crop of young pitchers filtering up through the system right now and it shouldn’t be long before Bauer sits atop the starting rotation, followed by Jarrod Parker, Skaggs, and Pat Corbin – with Archie Bradley a few steps behind.

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When it comes to developing in-house talent, Minnesota has a reputation for being rather conservative with the annual amateur draft, both in terms of investment dollars and in the type of player that the organization gravitates towards. In recent years, the club has supplemented its amateur draft talent with a foray into the international free agent market. So far, it’s working out well for the Twins with four international free agent signees among the Top 10 prospects, and another drafted out of Puerto Rico.

1. Miguel Sano, 3B/SS
BORN: May 11, 1993
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons (Reached Rookie+ in ’11)
ACQUIRED: 2009 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 3rd

SCOUTING REPORT: Sano is sandwiched between Joe Mauer and B.J. Garbe for second place on the list of the highest bonuses handed out to amateurs by the Minnesota Twins ball club. Thankfully for Minnesota, Sano appears to have a little more Mauer in him than Garbe. He has outstanding bat speed and a smooth stroke that should eventually lead to 70 power on the 20-80 scouting scale. Defensively, he’s outgrown shortstop and there is some concern that he might also eventually get too slow for third base (He’s 6’3 230 lbs now). Sano should provide enough offense for first base but it would definitely hurt his defensive value.

YEAR IN REVIEW: The infielder had an explosive offensive season while spending his second year in short-season rookie ball and he’s definitely ready for the next challenge. His power output was off the charts with a .345 ISO rate but he had the strikeout rate to match (26.3%). His batting average was helped by a healthy BABIP and he’s not going to continue to hit .290-.300 if he keeps whiffing at the same rate. Sano did not excell defensively at either third base (15 errors in 48 games) or shortstop (11 errors in 16 games).

YEAR AHEAD: Sano will look to continue to refine his approach, which includes improving against breaking balls. He’ll be playing in a less offense-oriented league so it will be interesting to see what his power numbers look like by the end of the season. Defense is something he’ll definitely want to focus on and it remains to be seen how long the organization sticks with him on the left side of the infield.

CAREER OUTLOOK: As mentioned, Sano could very well outgrow the hot corner and move to first base (or possibly left field). A right side of the infield featuring Sano and Eddie Rosario could be quite exciting. Don’t be shocked if he becomes one of the top prospects in all of baseball before too long… and eventually a star player with a middle-of-the-order bat for Minnesota.

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The Giants organization under General Manager Brian Sabean is known for fielding veteran big league ball clubs, with the occasional influx of high-level talent like catcher Buster Posey and pitcher Madison Bumgarner. The club went all-in in 2011 with the trade of top pitching prospect Zack Wheeler to the Mets for aging outfielder Carlos Beltran. Sadly, the team did not even make the playoffs and will now have to watch New York develop a killer 1-2 punch at the top of its starting rotation with Wheeler and Matt Harvey.

The organization played it relatively “safe” in the 2011 amateur draft with a high number of college players taken but it did gamble on some higher ceiling, larger bonus college picks with question marks, such as C Andrew Susac, LHP Josh Osich, and RHP Ray Black. The Giants’ Top 15 prospect list features a high number of ’11 draft picks due to a lack of minor league depth and because the scouting staff make some intriguing selections.

1. Gary Brown | CF
BORN: Sept. 28, 1988
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons (Reached A+ in ’11)
ACQUIRED: 2010 1st round, Cal State Fullerton (24th overall)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 5th

SCOUTING REPORT: I’ve been a little more conservative on my rankings of Brown than a lot of people but I’m starting to warm up to him. With that said, I’m not reading too much into his stats in 2011 because he played in a potent offensive league. Double-A will be a huge test of his talent. Brown’s best tool is his game-changing speed, which ranks as a pure 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale. He also shows above-average bat speed but his offensive game – which should be built around his foot speed – is hindered by his over-aggressive nature. Defensively, he has the tools to be a plus defender, but he’s still learning center field after bouncing around the field in college.

YEAR IN REVIEW: As mentioned, Brown’s ’11 season has a big ol’ asterisk beside it due to the league he was playing in and the odd decision not to challenge him with a mid-season promotion to double-A. Even so, you cannot scoff at a .411 wOBA and he showcased his blazing speed with 53 steals. He did get nabbed 19 times to he’s got a little bit of work to do in terms of success rate. The most encouraging number for me was the strikeout rate of just 12.1%. If he can get his walk rate (7.2%) up above 10% then he will be that much more dangerous.

YEAR AHEAD: Brown will face a stiff test at double-A in 2012 but he has the tools to succeed – he just needs some polish. He’s flashed some power in his career, both in college and in ’11 with a .182 ISO, but his game needs to revolve around his strongest tool. If everything goes well at double-A, Brown could see the Majors by July.

CAREER OUTLOOK: A lot of fast players with occasional pop have fallen prey to the allure of swinging for the fences. If Brown can avoid the temptation and work on “the little things,” then he will no doubt succeed as the Giants’ leadoff hitter and center-fielder of the future. Andres Torres is by no means a road block to playing time but the club will also have to avoid the temptation to commit too much money and too many years to veteran outfielders either on the open market or via the trade front.

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sa577984There is good news and bad news in terms of the Los Angeles Angels’ minor league system. The good news is that the club graduated – and leaned on heavily – a large number of prospects in 2011, including 1B Mark Trumbo, C Hank Conger, RHP Tyler Chatwood, RHP Jordan Walden, and RHP Bobby Cassevah. The bad news is that the promotions pretty much stripped the system in terms of upper-level depth. One more bit of good news, though, is that the club still has the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball.

1. Mike Trout | CF
BORN: August 7, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 3 seasons (AA/MLB in 2011)
ACQUIRED: 2009 1st round, New Jersey HS (25th overall)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 1st

SCOUTING REPORT: Trout is about as close to a legit five-tool player that you can get. He can hit for average, has the potential to steal 30+ bases, throws well and could eventually win a Gold Glove or five. The power tool is the biggest question mark but he posted a .218 ISO rate in a potent double-A league.

YEAR IN REVIEW: Trout did not turn 20 until August but he received 123 big league at-bats in 2011. The youngster struggled, which in no way diminishes his future potential, and hit just .220/.281/.390. As a player with good speed, Trout will not continue to post BABIPs in the .240-.250 range. Although power is not a key component of his game right now, he knocked out five home runs and posted a .171 ISO and made some good, hard contact (20.7 line-drive rate).

YEAR AHEAD: While in the minors in 2011, Trout hit .326/.414/.544 in 353 double-A at-bats as a teenager. He doesn’t have much else to learn riding the buses but some time in triple-A would not hurt. With a full, mostly veteran outfield already in place in Los Angeles Trout may have to bide his time in the minors. He’d most likely be the first player recalled should an injury occur to Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter or Peter Bourjos.

CAREER OUTLOOK: As one of the Top 2 minor league prospects in all of baseball (along with Bryce Harper), it’s clear that Trout has a very bright future ahead. He won’t produce the kind of power that Harper will but Trout should have a stronger all-around game with excellent speed and defense, decent power and a solid on-base average. If he can stay healthy, it’s not hard to forsee him playing 15-20 years at the MLB level.

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The Washington Nationals organization has come a long way in a short period of time. The former Montreal Expos club suffered from tight budgets due to MLB control while a suitable buyer was found. As a result, the ability to acquire top-notch talent via the amateur draft and international free agency was all but snuffed out. Some smart, aggressive drafting by the current front office has turned the minor league system around in a hurry.

1. Bryce Harper | RF/LF
BORN: October 16, 1992
EXPERIENCE: 1 season (A+/AA in 2011)
ACQUIRED: 2010 1st round, Nevada JC (first overall)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 1st

SCOUTING REPORT: Harper comes as close as anyone not named Mike Stanton to have legit 80 power on the 20-80 scouting scale. He also has a very good eye for his age, although he doesn’t handle off-speed pitches as well as the hard stuff but that should improve with experience. He has the chance to be a four- or five-tool player.

YEAR IN REVIEW: Despite the immense scrutiny that followed Harper everywhere he went, the 18-year-old former catcher quieted doubters. He hit .318 with a .236 ISO rate in 258 at-bats in A-ball. He was jumped to double-A and posted a triple-slash line of .256/.329/.395 in 129 at-bats. His power slipped to an .140 ISO but the decline in numbers is not concerning considering his age.

YEAR AHEAD: Harper will almost certainly return to double-A to begin the 2012 season, although a strong spring could vault him to triple-A. It would not be a shock to see the teenager in Washington by August. Even so, he’ll probably struggle a little bit with advanced pitchers since he only has 118 games of professional experience under his belt (including the ’10 Arizona Fall League).

CAREER OUTLOOK: There isn’t anyone on the current 25-man roster that possess any sort of threat to Harper’s eventual playing time once the organization deems him MLB-ready. It’s hard not to predict massive success for Harper, although there are still concerns over his maturity and we’ve seen what that can to do players’ careers.

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Earlier this week we published our first Top 15 prospects list teaser with player profiles on Washington Nationals’ Matt Skole, Los Angeles Angels’ Chevez Clarke, and San Francisco Giants’ Jesus Galindo. Today you receive another three prospect reports on some players that I really like – and feel could be valuable big league players – but they fell short of their teams’ Top 15 prospects lists.

We’re also offering a challenge today. Below, you’ll find a direct quote from a professional scout that I talked with about an Arizona Diamondbacks Top 15 prospect. The first person to correctly identify that prospect will win bragging rights.

Scout Quote: “[Player X] was a polished high school hitter. He had power to all fields, but had the advanced look of a hitter. Since he signed, he has not disappointed in his production in the minor leagues. He is continuing to improve in all aspects and his make up is second to none.”

Let’s hear your guesses!

And now onto the prospect profiles…

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The annual Top 10 prospects lists are set to arrive at FanGraphs at the beginning of November. This year the lists will be even bigger with 15 prospects ranked for each team, along with a “sleeper player” to watch. This week we’re giving you a sneak peek with six player profiles (three today, and three more on Friday) for prospects that failed to make their respective teams’ Top 15 lists. FanGraphs is the only site where you can receive more than 450 detailed player reports – at no cost.

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Many fans in New York are probably still in shock over the Yankees’ early expulsion from the 2011 playoffs. The truth is, though, that the dynasty is waning. That’s not to say that it’s over, by any means, but the unstoppable juggernaut of years past has been affected by Father Time.

The majority of the players that make up the team’s core are over 30 years old, including C.C. Sabathia, Mariano Rivera, A.J. Burnett, Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and Nick Swisher. Even Curtis Granderson, a breakout 2011 player, is already 30. Although it’s hard to fathom, within a few years Rivera, Posada, Jeter, and even Rodriguez will be retired from the game.

What does this mean for the Yankees? Is there an existing core of somewhat youthful players that the organization can use to rebuild – or perhaps renovate is a better word – its dynasty.

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Despite an early bounce from the postseason, it was a successful year for the Arizona Diamondbacks. The club reached the postseason for the fifth time in its relatively brief history (14 seasons) — and the franchise also saw breakout performances from the likes of starting pitchers Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson, as well as outfielder Justin Upton.

But how sustainable is Arizona’s recent success? Is the organization doomed to be a one-year wonder — or does it have the young talent to continue its assault on National League opponents? On first glance, the Diamondbacks appear to have a bright future.

Starting rotation

The emergence of Kennedy and Hudson has been key to the club’s success and the pair should be around for a while. Kennedy, 26, has found new life in Arizona after being cast off by the Yankees. He’s averaged more than 200 innings in the past two seasons and succeeds with merely decent stuff while also being a fly-ball pitcher. His 3.22 FIP in 2011 was more than a full run better than in 2010, when he posted a 4.33 FIP. While some regression wouldn’t be a shock — if Kennedy can continue to command his fastball like he did this season — he could continue to perform like a No. 2 starter.

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This is the final post in a six part series that took a look at disappointing seasons from Top 10 prospects that entered 2011 with a lot of hype and promise. You can read the other posts here: AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East, NL Central.

Arizona Diamondbacks
FanGraphs 2011 Top 10 Prospects
Decreased Value: Marc Krauss, OF

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