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Top 10 Prospects: The Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs
2010 MLB Record: 75-87 (5th in the NL Central)
Minor League Power Ranking: 19th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

*This list originally included pitcher Chris Archer, shortstop Hak-Ju Lee, and outfielder Brandon Guyer but all three players were sent to Tampa Bay in the Matt Garza deal.

1. Brett Jackson, OF
Acquired: 2009 1st round (U of California)
Pro Experience: 2 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A+/AA
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.5

Notes: Jackson, 22, has the potential to be an All-Star outfielder and a 20-20 threat. He split the year between high-A and double-A and hit .297/.395/.493 in 491 at-bats. His success in pro ball has been aided by high BABIPs, never posting a rate below .352. The former No. 1 draft pick used his plus bat speed to post ISO rates of .202 in high-A and .189 in double-A. Jackson strikes out a ton (27.6 K% at the senior level) but gets on base at a solid clip (11.2 BB%). He definitely had a pull-oriented approach when I saw him. Jackson showed a nice, quiet stance – there is not much going on, which means there is less of a chance for something to go wrong and cause him to fall into a prolonged slump based on mechanical issues. Lowering his hands a bit might help eliminate some of the loop in his swing. Defensively, he can handle center field but may end up in left field. He’s still improving his reads and routes, and his arm strength is just average.

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Top 10 Prospects: The San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants
2010 MLB Record: 92-70 (1st in the NL West)
Minor League Power Ranking: 20th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Brandon Belt, 1B
Acquired: 2009 5th round (University of Texas)
Pro Experience: 1 season
2010 MiLB Level: A+/AA/AAA
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.5

Notes: Belt was a steal as a fifth round pick out of the University of Texas in 2009. He didn’t make his pro debut until 2010 but the left-handed hitter absolutely exploded – despite the lack of experience – and rose to triple-A. Belt posted a .485 wOBA in high-A, .447 in double-A, and .419 in triple-A. At the senior level, he produced a triple-slash line of .229/.393/.563 in 61 plate appearances. He also showed a solid eye at the plate with excellent walk rates and reasonable strikeout rates for a power hitter. Along with ISO rates of .244/.286/.333, Belt showed his value as an all-around player by stealing 22 bases on the season; he succeeded on the base paths due to smart base running as opposed to blazing speed. Belt’s success in pro ball can be linked to mechanical adjustments at the plate. He has a wide, well-balanced stance at the plate. He occasionally gets out on his front foot a bit, which robs him of some power. His swing also gets loopy at times but, when he’s on, Belt shows good bat speed and the barrel carries well through the strike zone.

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The Top 10 Prospect Lists… So Far

In case you’ve missed the Top 10 lists so far, here they are. Click the team names for scouting reports/profiles.

30. The Chicago White Sox

1. Chris Sale, LHP
2. Jared Mitchell, OF
3. Brent Morel, 3B
4. Dayan Viciedo, 1B/3B
5. Tyler Flowers, C

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Top 10 Prospects: The Oakland Athletics

The Oakland Athletics
2010 MLB Record: 81-81 (2nd in the AL West)
Minor League Power Ranking: 21st (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Grant Green, SS
Acquired: 2009 1st round (University of Southern California)
Pro Experience: 2 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A+
Opening Day Age: 23
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.0

Notes: Green, 23, made his full-season debut in 2010 after signing with the club in ’09 as its first round draft pick. Playing in a strong offensive league in ’10 at high-A, the shortstop hit .318/.363/.520 in 548 at-bats. He showed good power with an ISO rate of .203. Green’s approach at the plate is still a little raw, as witnessed by his walk rate of 6.3% and strikeout rate of 21.4%. He has all the tools, however, to be an offensive-minded shortstop at the MLB level. He shows a nice, level swing and utilizes the whole field. He clears his hips well and has strong wrists, which helps him hit with authority, although he has more line-drive power right now than home-run strength. Defensively, he has quick feet and hands, but he needs better positioning with his feet. His range is average and his arm is fringe-average for the position. Green may have to move to second base.

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Kansas City Nabs Four Young Players for Greinke

According to reports, the Kansas City Royals organization has traded Zack Greinke and Yuniesky Betancourt to the Milwaukee Brewers for four young players: outfielder Lorenzo Cain, and shortstop Alcides Escobar, as well as pitchers Jake Odorizzi, and potentially Jeremy Jeffress – although his inclusion in the deal is still up in the air. My first reaction to the package coming to Kansas City was: Really, that’s it? Clearly the asking price dropped a lot in the past 48 hours.

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Top 10 Prospects: The St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals
2010 MLB Record: 86-76 (2nd in the NL Central)
Minor League Power Ranking: 22rd (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Shelby Miller, RHP
Acquired: 2009 1st round (Texas HS)
Pro Experience: 2 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A
Opening Day Age: 20
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.5

Notes: Miller, 20, has a good pitcher’s frame and he does a nice job of staying tall in his delivery. He throws with a low three-quarter arm angle. Miller occasionally has his front foot land a little too far toward third base, which causes him to throw across his body as well as cause command issues. A good athlete, he needs to work on consistency with his delivery. He held his own in low-A ball in 2010 as a teenager by displaying good control (2.85 BB/9). Miller posted a 2.42 FIP while missing a lot of bats (12.08 K/9). He produced an average number of grounders (46%). His repertoire includes a fastball that touches 96-97 mph, a good curveball, and a changeup. Miller certainly has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the organization and he’ll open 2011 in high-A. The right-hander should spend the majority of the season there but he’s talented enough – despite his age – to see a late-season promotion to double-A. He should be ready for regular MLB action in 2013.

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Top 10 Prospects: The Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles
2010 MLB Record: 66-96 (5th in the AL East)
Minor League Power Ranking: 23rd (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Zach Britton, LHP
Acquired: 2006 3rd round (Texas HS)
Pro Experience: 5 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AA/AAA
Opening Day Age: 23
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.0

Notes: Britton, 23, was one of my favorite under-the-radar pitching prospects in 2008 and 2009 but he’s no longer a secret after another successful season in 2010. The lefty produces outstanding ground-ball numbers (64%) while also showing OK control and acceptable strikeout numbers (7.60 K/9 in AAA). The far-from-elite K-rate is what keeps the southpaw from being considered a future ace. Britton, Chris Tillman, and Brian Matusz could form a very solid nucleus at the top of the rotation for years to come. Britton throws with a short-arm motion and I’m not love with his arm action, which appears to put a bit of stress on his elbow. There also isn’t much deception in his delivery and he also slows his arm down when he throws his breaking ball. His overall repertoire includes a sinking fastball that touches 94 mph, a slider, and a changeup. The off-speed pitches is still a work in progress. Britton should be ready for The Show by mid-2011.

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Top 10 Prospects: The Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers
2010 MLB Record: 77-84 (3rd in the NL Central)
Minor League Power Ranking: 24th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Jake Odorizzi, RHP
Acquired: 2008 supplemental 1st round (Illinois HS)
Pro Experience: 3 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A
Opening Day Age: 21
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.0

Notes: Odorizzi was my favorite prep arm in the 2008 draft and I was more than a little surprised to see the Brewers get him with the 32nd overall selection. He suddenly became the club’s top prospect after second baseman Brett Lawrie was dealt to the Jays. Odorizzi broke out in 2010 after being handled cautiously for the first two years of his pro career. The right-hander spent the entire ’10 season in low-A ball and produced a 2.93 FIP in 120.2 innings. Odorizzi saw his strikeout rate jump to 10.07 K/9, while his control was respectable with him posting a rate of 2.98 BB/9. He also had an average ground-ball rate of 46%. Odorizzi has a four-pitch mix with an 88-93 mph fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup. He may be better off scrapping the slider and focusing on three pitches. The right-hander has room to fill out and could add a few more ticks to his fastball. Odorizzi will likely continue to move slowly and he should spend most of the year in high-A ball. He has the ceiling of a No. 2 or 3 starter.

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San Diego Nabs 3 Top 10 Prospects

The San Diego Padres organization has agreed to trade star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to the Boston Red Sox for three Top 10 prospects. The talented youngsters headed to San Diego are right-handed pitcher Casey Kelly, first baseman Anthony Rizzo, and outfielder Reymond Fuentes. It’s a quality haul for the veteran first baseman, but I wouldn’t quite call it an elite package.

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Top 10 Prospects: The Florida Marlins

The Florida Marlins
2010 MLB Record: 80-82 (3rd in the NL East)
Minor League Power Ranking: 25th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Matt Dominguez, 3B
Acquired: 2007 1st round (California HS)
Pro Experience: 4 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AA
Opening Day Age: 21
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.5

Notes: Dominguez has long been known for being a defensive player first and an offensive player second. The former No. 1 draft pick did nothing to take away from that notion in 2010, as he posted a .337 wOBA in double-A at the age of 20. His ISO rate of .158, accumulated between 2009-2010, goes to show that he currently projects to have average-at-best power for the hot corner. With that said, his 34 doubles in 2010 suggest he could develop more over-the-fence power down the line. Dominguez is not gifted with plus bat speed. He takes only a slight stride when batting and he shows a minor upper cut in his swing at times. Dominguez has a good arm at third base and solid hands, but some have questioned his range. He could appear in the Majors in 2011, but look for him to be ready for full-time duty in 2012.

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