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Fun with Early Season Offensive Numbers

Small sample sizes are generally a bad thing, but they can also be fun. With April starting to wind down, let’s have a look at some interesting team offensive statistics in the Majors so far this year.

  • The Royals are second in the Majors in hitting: .296 batting average.
  • But we know it’s not going to last for these guys (2010 AVG | 2010 BABIP | Career AVG):
    Scott Podsednik: .449 | .512 | .279
    Jose Guillen: .377 | .370 | .273
    Jason Kendall: .352 | .388 | .290

  • The White Sox are last in hitting: .215 batting average.
  • You know you’re in trouble when Andruw Jones (.270) is your leading hitter, followed by Alex Rios (.250). Sophomore Gordon Beckham should pick up his game soon, and a speedster like Juan Pierre is not going to have a .228 BABIP for long, and the Ks aren’t hurting him (5.0 K%). Seriously, though… Andruw Jones. Have you seen him lately? It looks like he left half of himself at home this season… which has resulted in a much quicker bat.

  • The Cardinals and Blue Jays (!) clubs are leading the Majors in homers with 23. The Brewers squad is leading in slugging percentage at .496 and ISO at .209.
  • Vernon Wells accounts for seven of those for the Jays, followed by free agent steal Alex Gonzalez. Overbay has the biggest goose egg with zero in 59 at-bats (along with a .119 average and ugly batting stance/swing)… guess the Jays should have done that Overbay-for-Chris Snyder trade that they reportedly backed out on. For St. Louis, the usual suspects like Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols are hitting jacks, but it’s also nice to see sophomore Colby Rasmus tapping into his raw power.

  • The Astros (five) and Mariners (six) have fewer home runs than Vernon Wells (seven).
  • Jason Michaels, who has all of 14 at-bats, is leading the Astros club with two jacks. Pedro Feliz (12 in ’09) and Carlos Lee (26 in ’09) have yet to hit home runs. Only three Mariners’ hitters have homers: Casey Kotchman (3), Milton Bradley (2), and Rob Johnson (1). The swift-fielding Franklin Gutierrez is hitting .393 but he’s homer-less in 67 PAs. He knocked out 18 homers last season. Jose Lopez (25 dingers in ’09) is also without a homer in 68 PAs.

  • The Astros (41) and Orioles (46) offenses have scored fewer runs combined than the Dodgers (98), Brewers (97), Rays (93), and Phillies (91).
  • For what it’s worth, the Dodgers club has the highest BABIP in the Majors at .346 so it’s taking full advantage of its success with balls in play. The Brewers team is having success with scoring runs even with Prince Fielder off to another slow start in the power department.

  • More Houston woes… the club has walked a total of 18 times. The next fewest walks for a team is 37 by the Royals. The team with the most walks is the… Twins (?!) with 79.
  • There are three hitters in the Majors that have walked as much or more than the entire Astros team (David Wright, Daric Barton, and Nick Johnson). Michael Bourn and Jeff Keppinger account for 12 of the team’s walks (six apiece). Feliz hasn’t walked in 56 plate appearances, Tommy Manzella has a goose egg in 40, and Hunter Pence has one in 57. Seriously, that’s pathetic. As for the Twins, Justin Morneau (15), Denard Span (13), Jason Kubel (10), and Joe Mauer (10) are all in double-digits. Span figures to benefit from the increased focus with on-base percentage given that it should provide him with more stolen base opportunities.

  • Despite having a .215 team batting average, the White Sox club is tied with Kansas City for the fewest strikeouts in the Majors (86). Chicago has a BABIP of .222. The most strikeouts by a team is awarded to the Toronto Blue Jays (135), which also has the second lowest BABIP in the Majors at .255. The Mets club is up next, followed by the Rays.
  • Does Chicago have the slowest team in the Majors? Paul KonerkoA.J. PierzynskiCarlos Quentin… are definitely guilty of slow-footedness (Great, I sound like Carson), but the team also has Pierre, Alexei Ramirez, and Alex Rios. Some of this definitely smells like bad luck, especially when you add in the K-rate, which is good news for the much-maligned Chicago fan base. Toronto’s motto: Live by the long ball, die by the long ball (swing).

  • The Red Sox’ hitters make contact almost 10% more often than the D-Backs’ and Jays’ batters.
  • Again, I reiterate: Toronto’s motto: Live by the long ball, die by the long ball (swing). Man, it’s annoying watching the majority of Toronto’s hitters bat. Pull. Pull. Pull. It’s like being at a tug-of-war contest. I’ll give you the scouting report on Toronto: Pitch them low and away consistently and you’ll win the game.

  • The Phillies and Orioles clubs have each stolen just three bases this season. The O’s team has also been caught three times, while the Phillies’ base runners have been caught once. The Rangers club (!) leads the Majors in steals with 20 in 21 tries. The Rays team is second with 19 but six runners have been gunned down.
  • Jimmy Rollins accounts for two-thirds of the Phillies’ steals, but he’s currently on the DL so don’t expect to see much thievery in Philadelphia for the next little while. Why did Shane Victorino suddenly stop running…? I mean, speed is his game. The O’s best stolen base threat (Brian Roberts) is also dealing with injuries. Sure, the Texas club still has its sluggers, but Nelson Cruz leads the team with seven homers and he’s balanced that out with five steals. He should be a 30-20 guy this season, with an outside shot for 30-30 if he’s motivated. Elvis Andrus also has five steals (and what a steal he’s been from Atlanta). Julio Borbon has four swipes even though he’s barely getting on base (.163 OBP).

    A couple of lessons for the day:
    1. Houston is really frickin’ bad with the stick.
    2. Toronto batters swing for the fences and have no idea what “small ball” or “strategy” means.
    3. The Rangers are no longer one-dimensional (Here that Toronto?).
    4. The Twins’ free-swinging reputation is actually wrong (check out the ’09 totals, too).
    5. Sample sample sizes can be fun if used properly and in the presence of an adult.


    Updating the Top Prospects: AL Edition

    This past off-season, we took at look at each organization’s Top 10 prospects. It’s still very early on in the 2010 season, but let’s do our first update of the year and see how each of the No. 1 prospects are doing. Today, we’ll highlight the American League players.

    American League West

    Texas Rangers | Top Prospect: Neftali Feliz, Relief Pitcher (MLB)
    Mr. Feliz is just 21 (soon to be 22) but he’s already serving as the Rangers’ closer. He has a 2.61 xFIP in six games, as well as a strikeout rate of 13.50. Feliz has converted two save opportunities.

    Seattle Mariners | Top Prospect: Michael Saunders, Outfielder (AAA)
    The left-field geriatric ward in Seattle is pretty ugly but Saunders is not exactly forcing the club to consider him. He’s hitting just .174/.240/.174 in 46 at-bats. Saunders is hitting .139 against right-handed pitching but, as a left-handed hitter, that should pick up significantly.

    Oakland Athletics | Top Prospect: Chris Carter, First Baseman (AAA)
    Shhh, don’t make too much noise; you might spook him. But take a peek at Daric Barton. He may finally be making good on his potential. That, though, could be bad news for Carter, as it temporarily blocks his route to the first-base job. The good news is that there may still be room at DH, as Eric Chavez is not exactly lighting the world on fire. Carter is currently hitting .292/.333.479 with two homers in 12 games at triple-A.

    Los Angeles Angels | Top Prospect: Hank Conger, Catcher (AAA)
    Conger, 22, is enjoying his time at triple-A. The offensive-minded catcher is hitting .282/.333/.487 in 39 at-bats. Interestingly, he’s also struck out four times… but he’s also taken a total of two free passes. With Mike Scoscia’s man-crush on Jeff Mathis at the MLB level, it might be a while before Conger has a clear road to a starting gig in L.A. The prospect or Mike Napoli could end up as trade bait. Somewhere, Bobby Wilson is quietly sobbing in a corner.

    American League Central

    Kansas City Royals | Top Prospect: Mike Montgomery, Starting Pitcher (A+)
    Just 20, Montgomery has dominated high-A ball through three starts. He’s pitched at least five innings in each contest and has yet to allow more than two hits in a game. Overall, he’s pitched 18.0 innings and has allowed just six hits and four walks. The young lefty has a strikeout rate of 13 K/9 and a ground-ball rate of 57%.

    Detroit Tigers | Top Prospect: Casey Crosby, Starting Pitcher (A-)
    Crosby is currently on the disabled list with a “tender elbow.”

    Chicago White Sox | Top Prospect: Tyler Flowers, Catcher (AAA)
    If A.J. Pierzynski was not entrenched in Chicago, Flowers would already be the favorite of MLB headline writers everywhere. Triple-A has not kept Flowers from doing what he always does: get on base and hit for power. His current triple-slash line is .316/.447/.553. He also has 11 RBI in as many games.

    Cleveland Indians | Top Prospect: Carlos Santana, Catcher (AAA)
    Speaking of offensive-minded catchers, Santana was off to a sizzling start to the year in triple-A before he fouled a ball off of his knee. That will keep him sidelined for a few days but it’s not considered serious. He’s currently hitting .364/.451/.727 in 44 a-bats. Of his 16 hits, four are doubles and four are homers. He also has 14 RBI and has scored nine runs.

    Minnesota Twins | Top Prospect: Aaron Hicks, Outfielder (A-)
    Clearly wanting to take it slow with Hicks, the Twins organization sent the former No. 1 draft pick back to low-A after a modest (but promising) ’09 season. Perhaps that messed with his head… Hicks is currently hitting .156/.269/.244 in 45 at-bats. He has struck out 16 times in 12 games.

    American League East

    Toronto Blue Jays | Top Prospect: Brett Wallace, 1B (AAA)
    Wallace tends to get knocked for his lack of power, which is somewhat odd considering the fact that he hit 20 homers last season. Sure, he doesn’t project to be a 30-40 home run slugger, but who legitimately does these days? Wallace is currently raking in the Pacific Coast League with a line of .283/.377/.630 in 46 at-bats. He also has five homers, which is tied for first in the league with two minor league veterans. He might be pressing a bit to drive in runs, as he’s hitting .440 with the bases empty and .077 with runners in scoring position.

    Boston Red Sox | Top Prospect: Casey Kelly, RHP (AA)
    It was a bit of a surprise to the see the Red Sox organization challenge the 20-year-old prospect with a promotion to double-A to begin the year. After all, he had just 46.2 innings of experience in high-A ball. Kept to a tight pitch count, Kelly has worked just five innings in two starts, but he has yet to allow an earned run. He’s allowed five hits, one walk and has four Ks.

    Tampa Bay Rays | Top Prospect: Desmond Jennings, OF (AAA)
    Jennings missed the beginning of the season with a wrist injury so he’s gotten into just three games so far. He already has four hits, three walks and three steals.

    Baltimore Orioles | Top Prospect: Brian Matusz, LHP (MLB)
    Matusz is certainly making an early case for the best rookie in the American League. The young lefty has a 3.75 xFIP in three starts. With 18.2 innings under his belt, he has a strikeout rate of 11.09 K/9 and his walk rate has been acceptable at 3.38 BB/9. His extreme fly-ball tendencies are a little worrisome (57.8%).

    New York Yankees | Top Prospect: Jesus Montero, C (AAA)
    At first glance, you might say a line of .295/.367/.500 through 11 games is nice. But consider the fact that Montero is just 20 years old and he hasn’t been fazed one bit by the move to triple-A. His triple-slash line is actually pretty awesome. Rumor has it he occasionally plays with one arm tied behind his back just to make things interesting. If the Yankees offense sputters at any point this season, expect to see him penciled in to the DH spot.

    Please refrain from quoting “small sample size” in your comments. It’s a given.


    Ground-Ballers Gardner, Perez Off to Hot Starts

    There is nothing like the pop of a catcher’s mitt and a flashing triple-digit sign on the stadium radar gun to excite a crowd. But, as well all know, it’s not always about velocity.

    There are a couple of interesting prospects in the minors off to fast starts to the 2010 season. Nither pitcher will light up the radar gun. And neither pitcher is a can’t-miss No. 1 or 2 starter, but both hurlers are interesting players to keep an eye on because of the extreme ground-ball tendencies that they’ve exhibited in their careers (however brief they may be).

    The furthest away from the Majors is Joe Gardner, a pitcher in low-A with the Cleveland Indians organization. The right-hander was a third round draft pick out of UC Santa Barbara in 2009. If the early returns are any indication, the organization may have gotten a real steal with the 22 year old.

    Gardner did not throw his first pro pitch until 2010 and he struck out 11 batters in 4.0 innings during his debut. All but one out came via the K, and that one other out was a ground ball. In his second start five days later, Gardner struck out “just” seven batters while allowing two hits in 5.0 innings. He also induced eight ground ball outs and did not record a fly ball out (for the second straight game). Last night, the streak ended as Gardner finally gave up a fly ball out (but just one). In five innings, he allowed two hits again and struck out another eight batters. He recorded six more ground-ball outs.

    Gardner has recorded 42 outs in total this year: 17 ground-ball outs (40% of his outs) and 26 strikeouts (62%), It’s early but methinks low-A might be a little too low for this pitcher. (*That totals 102% thanks to an error on a ground ball, which was then negated by a GB double-play).

    The second pitcher has much more experience than Gardner. Luis Perez, a southpaw in the Toronto Blue Jays system, is beginning his second straight year with double-A – although to no fault of his own. Perez had a respectable season in ’09 and lost his spot due to a roster crunch at the triple-A level, which saw six or seven triple-A vets make the squad.

    Perez’ ’09 season included a 4.18 FIP and a ground-ball rate just shy of 57%. His strikeout rate did drop below 7.0 K% for the first time in his career. The lefty has not been missing as many bats as Gardner this season (11 Ks in 17.0 innings) but he’s allowed just two hits total in three starts. Double-A hitters have a .039 batting average against Perez. He’s allowed eight fly-ball outs this season and 26 ground-ball outs, good for 51% of his outs.

    Perez’ ceiling is probably that of a No. 4 starter or long reliever. He’s especially effective against lefties, having held them to a career .189 average and 69% ground-ball rate, so he can always fall back into a LOOGY role.


    A Spike in Ike’s Value

    With yesterday’s cut of first baseman Mike Jacobs in New York, Mets followers are eagerly anticipating word that top hitting prospect Ike Davis is on his way to the Majors. It’s certainly not a huge leap to expect the former first round draft pick to be a better offensive contributor than bench warmer Fernando Tatis, the currently-injured Daniel Murphy, or Jacobs.

    Davis has hit well this year in triple-A, albeit in a small sample size of 33 at-bats. (The quick trigger suggests that Mets management is feeling some heat to win… quickly). Davis has an overall line of .364/.500/.636 and is showing a good eye with nine walks to five strikeouts.

    The former Arizona State two-way player had a slow start to his career, which included a well-publicized 215-at-bat debut without a homer. Well, questions about Davis’ power have all but been answered. The left-handed hitter slugged 20 homers last year and posted a .256 ISO rate in half a season at double-A.

    He also showed patience last year by posting a walk rate of more than 11%, but the strikeouts could be an issue, especially early on in his MLB career. Davis had a 26% strikeout rate last season. It remains to be seen how well Davis will hit for average; it’s risen with each promotion but so has his BABIP, which was up to .381 in double-A. Given his lack of foot speed, Davis is unlikely to maintain that high rate as a result, which will ultimately be felt in the batting average. His struggles against southpaws could also be an issue (OPS of .672 vs southpaws in ’09, 1.000 vs right-handers) unless a platoon situation – which would make a lot of sense – is utilized, at least early on in his career.

    Defensively, Davis should be an upgrade. As a former two-way player he has a strong arm, which is why he also spent time in the outfield in college (where his lack of speed hurt him).

    It’s pretty clear that promoting Davis is pretty much a no-lose situation for the Mets at this point… aside from service time, which is irrelevant for a team serious about contending in 2010. He has the potential to be a Rookie of the Year candidate in the National League, which is great for PR… something the organization could use.


    Givin’ Kila Ka’aihue Some Love

    At 26 years of age, Kila Ka’aihue is wasting away at triple-A. It’s become painfully clear that the Kansas City Royals organization cannot see the value in a player with 20 home run power and 100-walk capability. It’s time to free Kila Ka’aihue.

    Right now, there are a couple teams in the Majors that could use an upgrade at the first base position. The Baltimore Orioles club is currently paying Garrett Atkins $4.5 million for 2010 after he posted a negative WAR in ’09 with the Rockies. He currently has a .252 wOBA and has shown almost no power through the first two weeks of ’10.

    The club’s top first base prospect is Brandon Snyder, who is probably about a year away from being a regular contributor in the Majors. His strength is his ability to hit for a pretty good average and he grades out as an average-at-best first baseman from an offensive perspective. He swings from the right side and would make a pretty nice platoon partner with Ka’aihue, who is a left-handed batter. Together, the two players would make less than $1 million in 2010 and ’11.

    Ka’aihue could also be an immediate upgrade in New York where the Mets club is currently employing a two-man mess at the first base position. Neither Fernando Tatis nor Mike Jacobs have any business playing first base regularly for a big league team. Oh, but they’re just holding the spot warm for Daniel Murphy, who’s currently injured. Coming off of a 0.9 WAR season, though, he might actually be more valuable for the club on the DL than at first base.

    The issues with flipping Ka’aihue to the Mets is that the club’s top offensive prospect is also a first baseman. Ike Davis is currently hitting rather well at triple-A and may not be that far away from being MLB ready. One option here, though, is that Davis has experience playing the outfield and he could be shifted there to make room for Ka’aihue, if the big league club were to try and trade Jeff Francoeur while his value is on the upswing. Is this the best option for the Mets? Perhaps not, but it’s something to at least think about considering the team is going no where fast.

    Ka’aihue probably fits best with the O’s. The club is second last in the American League in on-base percentage (.309) and is 11th (out of 14 teams) in slugging percentage. Those just happen to be the two areas that Ka’aihue excels in. He slugged 37 homers between double-A and triple-A in ’08 and followed that up with 17 at triple-A in ’09. He’s walked 100+ times in each of the past two seasons and had a walk rate of 18.4% in ’09. His BB/K rate was an impressive 1.20.

    Ka’aihue is not without his warts. He’ll likely provide a .240-.260 average in the Majors and he’s definitely not the most athletic player. At 26, he’s no spring chicken and he possesses “old player skills, ” which means he could fade out quickly if you believe in the concept. Even so, he has the potential to be a high-reward, low-risk option for the O’s (or Mets) and it shouldn’t cost too much to pry him away from the Royals organization.


    Brad Bergesen: Look Over Your Shoulder

    Having good pitching depth within an organization means that a MLB starter should never get too comfortable. Orioles right-hander Brad Bergesen is no doubt looking over his shoulder after two poor outings to start the season. The right-handed pitcher, best known for his sinking fastball, has allowed 15 hits and three walks in 7.2 innings. Bergesen’s fastball command has betrayed him so far this year and he got just one ground-ball out (compared two five fly-ball outs) last night against the Tampa Bay Rays.

    There are currently two key pitching prospects biding their time in triple-A Norfolk. Jake Arrieta, 24, has seen his ground-ball rate take the opposite turn to Bergesen’s. In two starts, he’s allowed just six hits in 12.0 innings. On Wednesday night against the White Sox’ triple-A affiliate in Charlotte, Arrieta induced 11 ground-ball outs and gave up just four fly-ball outs. If he can keep up the worm burning it will help him while pitching in the potent American League East. His biggest need right now is to improve his control after walking six batters in 12.0 innings; it’s an issue that plagued him last season, as well.

    Chris Tillman, 22, is technically no longer a rookie but the O’s sent him back to triple-A to begin 2010. He made 12 starts in the Majors in ’09 and he posted a FIP of 6.10. He showed OK control for his age with a walk rate of 3.32 BB/9 but his strikeout rate was on the low side at 5.40 K/9. Tillman struggled significantly with his fastball and posted a -1.62 wFB/C (fastball value, runs above average per 100 pitches). He’s struggling a bit in triple-A right now with a 5.19 ERA in two starts. He’s allowed 13 hits in 8.2 innings. On the plus side, he has struck out nine batters and walked just two.

    If those two pitching options don’t do anything for you, the club has Brandon Erbe (22) and Troy Patton (24) in the Norfolk starting rotation. The organization also has the luxury of looking to MLB reliever Jason Berken, who was in the starting rotation last season for Baltimore, albeit with ugly results. His approach is better suited to the bullpen.

    It’s still early – and too soon to panic – but the Orioles club plays in the American League East where every win counts. The club is not going to wait forever for Bergesen to find his mojo, especially when they have the luxury of quality pitching depth.


    Ricky Romero. ‘Nuff Said.

    Do you want to talk a little bit about dominance?

    Here is a line for you: 8 IP | 1 H | 12 K | 10 GB | 2 BB | 2 FB

    Jays sophomore pitcher Ricky Romero threw the game of his life on Tuesday night against the Chicago White Sox. The southpaw did not allow a ball out of the infield until the seventh inning; the second – and only other fly ball of the night – came on Alex Rios‘ two-run homer that ended Romero’s no-hit bid in the eighth.

    Known as a ground-ball pitcher, Romero worked down in the zone and away from the White Sox hitters, many of whom are known for being pull happy. It was a smart approach and with all his pitches working last night, Romero was able to execute with repeated precision. Both his command and control were impeccable with all four of his pitches: four-seam fastball, cutter, change-up, and curve. He has good fastball velocity for a lefty, and he sat between 89-93 mph with the heater for most of the night, but it was Romero’s ability to keep the hitters guessing that led to his success on the mound.

    Of his 12 strikeouts, eight came on the change-up, two on the fastball, and two on the curve. Romero’s ground-ball outs came with the fastball (six) and the change-up (four). Clearly, the hitters could not pick up the difference between the fastball and the change-up. His delivery was smooth and effortless.

    Romero primarily used his curveball to get ahead in the count early on, often with the first pitch. Although it wasn’t a strikeout pitch for him in most at-bats, the ability to command it helped him set up his knock-out pitches. When a pitcher can command three pitches and get consistent outs with two, he’s going to have a lot of success, as we saw with Romero.

    As good as the former No. 1 draft pick was, I want to take a minute to also mention catcher John Buck. The former Royals backstop may be the best free agent signing that the Jays have made in the past few years. He’s off to a pretty good start with the bat, but his true value to the team lies in his work behind the dish. In his first week with the Jays, Buck has clearly earned the trust of the Jays starters.

    Rarely have I seen a shake of the head to suggest a disagreement in the pitch selection. The veteran catcher is known for having a game plan detailed before each contest. He appears to be an excellent receiver and he’s created close plays on throws to second base where it appeared the runner would be safe by a country mile.

    Although it’s very early, the Jays club is second in the American League in xFIP at 4.01 (fourth in ERA at 3.19). The club is also third in walk rate at 3.05 BB/9. These numbers are significant given that the club has a patch-work starting rotation made up of young hurlers, converted relievers, and veterans returning from significant injuries. Buck, no doubt, deserves a lot of credit for that, as does new pitching coach Bruce Walton.

    After eight successful games by the Jays, we should not shift our expectations. It’s still going to be a long season and the club could very well end up with a losing record. However, it’s clearly not going to be all doom-and-gloom as some had suggested prior to the season.


    Is Newspaper Baseball Coverage Dead?

    I have a question for FanGraphs readers. Have you noticed a drop in newspaper coverage for your local Major League Baseball team in 2010? I’d love to hear from at least one person (in the comments section) who follows each MLB team through the printed form.

    As many of you know, I live in Ontario, Canada. The baseball market in Canada is unique because we have just one MLB team (although Seattle and Detroit are close cousins). As such, the coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays is truly a national thing. We have four national papers located in Toronto: The Toronto Star, The Toronto Sun, The Globe and Mail, and The National Post.

    According to a report by the Canadian Newspaper Association (CNA), the average daily readerships for these four newspapers in 2009 were (rounded down): The Star (314,000), The Sun (143,000), The Globe (315,000), The Post (156,500). We all know newspapers are struggling. Cuts are being made almost daily as newspapers struggle to survive. Unfortunately, the sports sections around both the U.S. and Canada have seen significant cuts in most markets. Toronto is no different. I started to notice a real drop-off in Blue Jays coverage in ’09. It seems worse in 2010. So, I took to the online sports sections for each of the four Toronto papers to see if I’m correct… or just imagining things.

    *For full disclosure, I used to work in the newspaper field as a reporter, editor and photographer. While training to be a journalist, I worked as a copy person for a mid-market TorStar paper, and I spent more than five years writing for Sun Media newspapers. I even had a Jays article published on The Sun’s Web sports section two years ago. It was supposed to be a weekly column, but The Sun cut its freelance budget soon after and my gig was one of those chopped.

    It’s Saturday around noon when I check the sites. The Star’s baseball section’s lead article is from the Jays’ last win in Texas. It’s more than 24 hours old. The most recent game report (Friday afternoon’s Game 1 against Baltimore) is the sixth story down. All the ones above it are 24 hours or more old. Two articles are 48 hours old, one is 72 hours old. Nine baseball articles were posted on April 5, opening day (six were Jays related). It went downhill from there, including just one for Friday and no new articles for the Saturday Web page.

    The Sun had 10 articles posted on April 5, but nothing new for Saturday. However, two articles were posted after the Jays’ win in Baltimore on Friday. The Globe appears to have upped its general coverage of Major League Baseball. There are numerous wire pieces from around baseball. Again, though, nothing for April 10, and one article reacting to the Jays’ win in Baltimore on April 9. The Post is also enjoying the cheaper wire stories. There are 10 stories featured on the main baseball page – none on the Jays. The lead story is that Cliff Lee will be out until May. The Jays? Oh, wait… I found a small header on the far right – “Blue Jays spoil Orioles’ home opener” – and it’s a link to… another Web site? No original Jays material at this paper.

    I think we get the point. And I know the Jays are not the biggest draw in the world in Canada… but part of the reason for that is the lack of passionate (and intelligent) coverage. With all the extra coverage around the ‘Net, game reports are pretty much covered by places like ESPN, FoxSports, and MLB.com. What newspapers should be focusing on is features, interesting angles and even teams’ up-and-coming minor league stars. With apologies to the baseball columnists in Toronto, I haven’t read a truly interesting or inspired column in a year or more. Their Q&A articles, which seem to be rather popular, are usually bland and misinformed.

    The cheapest way for some newspapers (especially those operating in small or mid-sized markets) to get some footing back for their sports pages is to embrace the online writer (I dislike the term blogger; there are too many negative connotations). Hiring a writer or two off the Internet would be both cheap and it could really infuse some life back into the baseball coverage. Sure, there are some lousy and unreliable baseball writers online, but there are also some great ones that produce insightful and clean copy. The exact same can be said for sports columnists in the newspaper world.

    Major national sports media outlets like ESPN, Sports Illustrated, and FoxSports have embraced the online writers. You can find them all over their Web pages. Newspapers need to realize that passionate and informed “bloggers” are not going away. You cannot beat us, and we cannot beat you. The best scenario for everyone involved (especially the readers) is to join together. Otherwise, there will be no winners. Only losers.

    Oh, and if you’re wondering who I think the best baseball beat writer and the best baseball columnist in Canada are… It’s the same person on both accounts: Jordan Bastian of MLB.com.


    Marc on Colby Lewis

    I thought I was pretty smart. This past Friday, I noticed that Colby Lewis was making his triumphant return to the Majors. As many of you know, our very own Carson Cistulli has a Texas-sized Man Crush on Mr. Lewis. I suggested to Carson that we should both watch the game and post a duel article on Monday (today) commenting on Lewis’ start. I should have realized that my “bright ideas” always backfire.

    Instead of getting to publicly laugh in Carson’s face, I have to eat crow: Lewis actually pitched well. Prior to his self-imposed banishment to Japan, Lewis had appeared in parts of five MLB seasons and posted a 5.79 FIP, 5.14 BB/9 and 6.34 K/9. Hardly exciting stuff.

    But then something happened to Lewis in Japan… He apparently learned how to be a pitcher. This past Friday night, he held the Mariners lineup (albeit not a scary collection of hitters) to just one run in seven innings. He allowed five hits and four walks in the game, while also striking out three.

    I am a little worried about Lewis going forward because he allowed a lot of fly ball outs (10) and Texas is known for being a pretty good place to hit for power. As well, his control was clearly better than his command – but both are significantly improved from what he previous MLB numbers would suggest. He’s also going to have to find a reliable third pitch (either his curve or change-up) because his fastball-slider combo is not going to be enough once a scouting report on Lewis starts to circulate.

    I’m willing to admit that Lewis may not be quite as bad as I thought he was going to be this season, but I still predict a modest WAR this season in the 1.5 to 2.5 range. I think he’ll give Texas some much-needed innings, but he’s going to have some bad games when his fastball command is off and his pitches catch too much of the plate.


    FanGraphs Scouting: Ian Kennedy

    Yeah, it’s only been one start, but I want to talk up Ian Kennedy… something I’ve actually been doing since he was traded from the New York Yankees to the Arizona Diamondbacks this past off-season.

    The right-handed Kennedy made his National League debut on Wednesday night against the San Diego Padres in Arizona. He gave up three runs (all in the second inning on a three-run homer to Scott Hairston) and six hits but showed big-league stuff by striking out eight batters. The key for Kennedy is clear: command the fastball. With a fastball in the 86-91 mph range, it sat right around 87-89 mph on Wednesday night. The majority of his eight strikeouts came on change-ups (four), followed by fastballs (three) and a curveball (one). This is encouraging because it shows that Kennedy had two out-pitches going on the night, which will really help him given his average fastball velocity.

    The bulk of his six hits allowed came on the fastball (four). Kennedy has thrown a slider in the past but I did not see much of one against the Padres; he utilized a fourth pitch, but it looked to be more of a cutter, which caused a number of lazy fly balls. In this game, his control looked better than his command and he was consistently around the strike zone.

    There are certainly some things to work on for his next start, which will likely come against the Los Angeles Dodgers’ powerful, yet youthful, lineup. Along with improving his fastball command, it would be nice to see Kennedy induce some more ground balls, and also be more economical with his pitches; He had thrown 82 (68% for strikes) after just four innings and finished with 94 pitches thrown. Fittingly, his final out of the game came on a strikeout of another promising, young player in Kyle Blanks.

    Kennedy was removed for a pinch hitter in the bottom of the fifth inning with the D-Backs trailing 3-1 in the game. It turned out to be a smart move, as pinch-hitter Rusty Ryal singled for Kennedy and later scored in the inning. The D-Backs tied the game up in the fifth and stormed back to win the game 5-3. FYI: Ryal hit was an opposite-field single, and the rookie had an impressive pinch-hit at-bat.