A Spike in Ike’s Value
With yesterday’s cut of first baseman Mike Jacobs in New York, Mets followers are eagerly anticipating word that top hitting prospect Ike Davis is on his way to the Majors. It’s certainly not a huge leap to expect the former first round draft pick to be a better offensive contributor than bench warmer Fernando Tatis, the currently-injured Daniel Murphy, or Jacobs.
Davis has hit well this year in triple-A, albeit in a small sample size of 33 at-bats. (The quick trigger suggests that Mets management is feeling some heat to win… quickly). Davis has an overall line of .364/.500/.636 and is showing a good eye with nine walks to five strikeouts.
The former Arizona State two-way player had a slow start to his career, which included a well-publicized 215-at-bat debut without a homer. Well, questions about Davis’ power have all but been answered. The left-handed hitter slugged 20 homers last year and posted a .256 ISO rate in half a season at double-A.
He also showed patience last year by posting a walk rate of more than 11%, but the strikeouts could be an issue, especially early on in his MLB career. Davis had a 26% strikeout rate last season. It remains to be seen how well Davis will hit for average; it’s risen with each promotion but so has his BABIP, which was up to .381 in double-A. Given his lack of foot speed, Davis is unlikely to maintain that high rate as a result, which will ultimately be felt in the batting average. His struggles against southpaws could also be an issue (OPS of .672 vs southpaws in ’09, 1.000 vs right-handers) unless a platoon situation – which would make a lot of sense – is utilized, at least early on in his career.
Defensively, Davis should be an upgrade. As a former two-way player he has a strong arm, which is why he also spent time in the outfield in college (where his lack of speed hurt him).
It’s pretty clear that promoting Davis is pretty much a no-lose situation for the Mets at this point… aside from service time, which is irrelevant for a team serious about contending in 2010. He has the potential to be a Rookie of the Year candidate in the National League, which is great for PR… something the organization could use.
Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.
“It’s pretty clear that promoting Davis is pretty much a no-lose situation for the Mets at this point… aside from service time, which is irrelevant for a team serious about contending in 2010.”
If the Mets think they’re serious about contending in 2010, that’s a loss for fans hoping for rationality from the front office.
Then again, any fan hoping for that at this juncture is just asking to be disappointed.
If it weren’t for biased NL umpiring, the mets would be 9-3 right now.
What!! Shoddy umpiring has cost the Mets *five* games?!? That’s just totally ludicrous.
I think if it weren’t for the umpiring they would have been 126-36 last year. Damn those umps for not fielding any semblance of a major league caliber pitching rotation!
Utterly preposterous.
if it weren’t for a bad team, they’d be 12-0
I’m sort of baffled by this claim. Is there any way for you to expound upon this utterly ridiculous proclamation? I suppose it could be a joke that’s way over my head, but I’m otherwise astounded by this post.
It’s wrighteous. He claims every good player from the steroid era juiced. Actually I think he claims every good player now juices. Except for david wright.
There is indeed a joke here, but it’s the commenter not the comment.
It’s a bit of a stretch to say this is a “no lose” situation for the Mets. Davis still has serious pitch recognition issues, not just against lefties, but righties will get him with good off speed stuff as well. He’s now been pushed up to a much higher level where he’ll face better pitchers, with better stuff, in a much higher pressure situation.
It could work out well and he more than likely IS better than what the Mets have, but there is still serious downside possibilities, IMO.
Really? He has serious pitch recognition issues? I haven’t noticed that.
Also, his numbers against lefties last year were better than Alonso, Smoak and Morrison. And those numbers improved at AA when he changed his hand position in his stance, and he also was good against lefties in Arizona Fall League.
And he has 2 singles today, including an rbi single against Sean “12 Ks and 1 BB in 8 innings” Marshall.
Tiny sample sizes of course.
absolutely stupid to bring him up now. The Mets should give Chris Carter a chance. He can’t be worse than Jacobs defensively and he has shown the ability to hit throughout his minor league career. If he were to fail than yes by all means bring up Ike Davis.
What the duck is a “former two way player”?
Field player AND pitcher.
What’s a “field player”? Everyone in real (see NL) baseball plays the field and hits. This isn’t football, hence the term two way player does not apply.
Position player and pitcher. Everyone in NL baseball plays the field and hits, but not everyone in NL baseball hits and pitches and plays some position other than pitcher. Two-way players do.
Ike Davis played both a fielding/hitting position and pitched in college at ASU. That’s pretty standard baseball parlance. Stop being difficult.
“His struggles against southpaws could also be an issue . . . unless a platoon situation – which would make a lot of sense – is utilized, at least early on in his career.”
Do you really think a 23 year old kid with as big an upside as Davis’s would benefit from platooning upon his arrival at the Major League level? Seems to me it would be a disservice to him and stunt his overall, long-term development to be playing Fernando Tatis or some other dreg against lefties instead of Davis.
I agree wholeheartedly with this and can’t see any benefit to bringing up a prospect who still needs development only to platoon him. If you think the guy’s good enough to play, you have to play him every day and let him continue to develop on the job. If not, you need to leave him in the minors until he’s ready.
How is he going to learn to hit lefties if you sit him against lefties? Any team that does this is idiotic. If you’ve got a mature player like Granderson and want to platoon him, that’s one thing. A 23 year old with 33 AAA at bats still has room to learn, and even if he doesn’t, you really need to find that out before you kill any chance he has to get that skill.
I agree that it may be too soon to bring him up with only 33 AAA ABs. The Mets are a mess. If they were truly trying to contend they should sign a 1B and let Davis develop in the minors. Don’t bring him up until he has had at least a season in AAA.
However, using him in a platoon against righties is a good idea. It takes a lot of pressure off the rookie and reduces his workload. Even if he had a season in AAA its important not to give guys too much, this is even more true when a player is making the jump from AA. He can learn to hit lefties once he has shown the ability to hit righties and field his position at the major league level.
Being labelled a “platoon-only” player too early is how you end up with Russell Branyan’s career. And see what he did last year once somebody finally let him play every day. It’s just a shame it happened so late that his body couldn’t take it.
People keep repeating that he can’t hit lefties. Please look at his numbers versus Morrison, Alonso and Smoak. Sure, Smoak switches, but he was awful against lefties last year. And Ike’s numbers improved in AA. He changed his hands.
Did anyone watch him crush an Andy Oliver pitch in Arizona?
Has anyone really followed him? He has a slight hitch still, and folks have complained about a long swing, but he has definitely improved.
I have read a little about these other stud 1B prospects, all of whom get way more play than Ike did until recently, and while some issues versus lefties are raised, none of them have it harped on like Ike, even though he outhit all of them versus lefties.
I am not saying Ike is better than them, and prefer Smoak, no doubt, but I think it amazing that so many people have picked up on this without looking at the numbers or reading about his progress and changes.
Minaya said no platoon.
Always great to rush a prospect because you’re desperate.
/sarcasm.
Doesn’t seem like rushing a prospect to me, but okay.
If he is ready to go now he was ready to go opening day. Or do you think a ten day sample size actually proves something BlackOps?
lol he didn’t start Opening Day because they wanted to delay his service time. Now he’ll be FA-eligible in 2016 instead of 2015.
Do you really think the Mets making an opening day roster decision means something? Really? Yes, he’s as ready now as he was on opening day.
Chico, his service time isn’t being delayed. If he stays on the big league roster the rest of the year, he will be FA-eligible in 2015.
I don’t think hes being rushed either. I think your post fits better in regards to Mejia.
Chico – To my knowledge his FA eligibility has not changed. I will be happy to be proven wrong on this however. Source?
Yes BlackOps, I do think it means something.
I agree with your proposition, “He’s as ready now as he was on opening day.”
And if that means he was ready on both, then it was retarded to start him in AAA and letting Mike Jacobs bat like .000 for a week and a half in the middle of the lineup.
And if he’s not ready, then they are rushing him which, like I said above, is smart. (sarcasm).
So Chico just made a purported fact up. Love that arguing strategy.
Chico, looks like you might be off the hook. My apologies.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/04/ike-davis-strasburg.html
Well at least the manager will have someone to bring into the next 20 inning game so he doesn’t have to warm up the closer for 11 straight innings.
.286/.357/.432 – Ike’s line vs. lefties in the upper minors (AA and AAA combined).
In a very short time, Ike will be hitting lefties in the majors better than Fernando Tatis. It would be silly to platoon him right now and prevent that development.
I really don’t see any flaws with this kid at this point. The strikeout rate was high last year, but fell most every month with more experience. He struck out in 26% of PA last year in AA, but that fell to 12% this year in AAA so far. He just continues to make the adjustment and rapidly gets better.
And the power that was projectible when he was a draft prospect increasingly becomes more a reality as well. He just gets stronger each year. He was the Mets best bat in ST too (1.496 OPS).
Sure, you have small samples which don’t quite “prove” anything, but it would be foolish to wait until you had enough a sample for mathematical proof. Besides, guys like Jacobs, Catalanotto, and Tatis have had some pretty large samples to prove what they are, and it isn’t pretty. Once something is “proven”, it isn’t a “prospect” anymore anyway right? It may not be proven, but it sure as heck seems likely this kid is going to be an above average big league 1B before too long.
In the long run, this is a guy who is an excellent pure hitter, who draws walks, hits for plus to plus plus power, and should play above average defense. Give him time to adjust, but eventually he’ll be hitting .290 with plenty of walks and 30+ HR.
And by waiting just the first couple of weeks, the Mets have ensured that Davis will be under team control through 2016. So, go ahead an pencil him into the middle of that lineup until then. By calling him up now, he still may end up with super two status, but that will only cost the Mets a bit of money. Probably less than they would have lost in ticket sales if they kept running Jacobs and Tatis out there.
Yes. Someone who actually looked at the numbers and the progress.
I only saw his first at bat, but he looked pretty good. After falling 0-2 he battled his way back eventually hitting the 6th pitch for a line drive single.
The groupthink in here is embarassing.
Because some Internet “scout” who neve rleaves his basement swaid some things about Davis, things anyone who watched Davis this ST could see were false, the posters in here, en masse, have been repeating this drivel. The same trailer-trash posters in here claim Aaron Hicks is a Top-20 prospect, even though everyone who has seen Hicks play now concedes he is a bust.
You folks need to actually watch a gamne every now and then.