The All-Albatross Outfield Two Weeks In
I hope that FanGraphs readers don’t need lecturing on sample size, so I won’t. Scouts might be able to pick up on something a player is doing differently in the first two weeks, but I don’t have that kind of insight myself. Let’s check out the starts of three outfielders with big contracts (one isn’t quite as big, although it was arguably almost as bad an idea as the other two) who, to say the least, haven’t justified their paychecks, but two of whom are hitting surprisingly well in 2010, and a third who is not.
I’ll be using ZiPS in-season projections to look at how ZiPS projected the player’s offense before the season, how ZiPS projects the player’s offense the rest of the season (“RoS” on the player pages), i.e., the current estimate of the player’s “true talent” in context, and what that means for the player’s final 2010 offense value (ZiPS “Update”).
Your current All-Albatross Outfield:
Center Field: Vernon Wells
Contract: $126 million 2008-2014, $12.5 million in 2010 (Cot’s)
Current 2010 wOBA: .507
ZiPS 2010 Preseason Projection: .328
ZiPS Rest-of-Season (RoS): .342
ZiPS Update: .359
As horrible as Wells’ contract undoubtedly is now, it wasn’t as crazy at the time as people thought. Wells has been insanely hot (.340/.436/.787, .507 wOBA) from the very first game. Before the season, ZiPS saw him as about a league-average hitter (.328 wOBA), which wouldn’t be bad from a center fielder if he a) could field the position, b) wasn’t being paid $12.5 million, c) wasn’t in his 30s, and c) wasn’t signed through 2014 with a full no-trade clause. ZiPS is pretty impressed by the first two weeks, though, projecting a .342 wOBA for the rest of the season finishing at .359. If Wells finishes as ZiPS envisions (+15 runs offensively), he would actually be worth about what he’s being paid this season… assuming he can play average defense. This is still an albatross, of course, particularly given the Jays’ situation, but it’s a nice change in projection after only two weeks.
Right Field: Jose Guillen.
Contract: $36 million 2008-2010, $12 million in 2010 (Cot’s)
Current 2010 wOBA: .491
ZiPS 2010 Preseason Projection: .333
ZiPS Rest-of-Season (RoS): .344
ZiPS Update:.361
Some may feel that Guillen doesn’t belong on this list, given that he’s the Royals primary DH, but he insists he can still play the outfield, and was only bad in 2009 because of life-threatening blood clots in his legs. One might wonder why the blood clots also went untreated in 2006, 2007, and 2008, when he played terrible defense, or in 2006 and 2008 when he didn’t hit, but whatever the situation is, Guillen is definitely smoking the ball now (.367/.404/.755), and people have remarked that his bat looks quicker. Before the season, ZiPS (much more optimistic on Guillen than CHONE or the Fans) saw Guillen as a slightly above-average hitter, which would make him a slightly above-replacement level DH. If he finishes the season at about +13 offensively (as ZiPS projects), that’s about a 1.5 WAR DH, exceeding my wildest dreams for Guillen 2010. I’ll be glad to admit I was wrong if that happens. It’s still a disaster contract for the Royals that should never have been signed, and a 1.5 WAR season doesn’t even justify his 2010 salary, but hey, maybe the Royals will be able to offload a small portion of his remaining contract and/or get a C- prospect back, which seemed inconceivable two weeks ago. Trust the Process.
Left Field: Alfonso Soriano
Contract: $136 million, 2007-2014, $18 million in 2010 (Cot’s)
Current 2010 wOBA: .322
ZiPS 2010 Preseason Projection: .357
ZiPS Rest-of-Season (RoS): .357
ZiPS Update: .354
I’ll do a longer write-up on the Soriano contract soon. For now: it was a terrible decision at the time that somehow turned out worse. Like Wells and Guillen, Soriano was absolutely dreadful in 2009, although the other two didn’t have the benefit of having Milton Bradley as a scapegoat/distraction. ZiPS saw Soriano as the best hitter of the three going into 2010, and although he’s off to a less-than-inspiring start, still does see him as that for the rest of the season. But even if he finishes with a .354 wOBA for the season, he’ll still merely be around an average player making $18 million a season… until 2014.
Projections admit of uncertainty. I don’t know all the ins-and-outs of ZiPS (created by Dan Szymborski), but this does give a perspective on what a small hot streak may or may not mean. Even in the optimistic cases, these contracts remain albatrosses.
Matt Klaassen reads and writes obituaries in the Greater Toronto Area. If you can't get enough of him, follow him on Twitter.
It should be noted that as part of Vernon Wells’ contract, he also was given the 3rd installment of his signing bonus ($8.5 mil) on March 1. Shouldn’t that affect the salary we attribute to him this year?
Sure, I didn’t want to focus too much on a ranking or the salaries, just the starts to the season. We can alll agree these are bad contracts… But, yeah, the bonus makes it even “more special,” although I guess one could argue that, being deferred, it saves the Jays a bit of money on the contract as a whole.
While not in the same league in total dollar value – Eric Byrnes’ contract has to be in the top 5. 3 Years 30, and he didnt make it into year 3. Ouch.
Yeah, this was more about their starts to the season… but yeah, Byrnes is bad
Yeah – i realized my post missed your point after i posted it… oh well..
How much of the projected increase in Wells’ wOBA will come from pitchers IBBing him to face Overbay?
He’s only had two IBBs so far, and considering how hot he’s been and how cold Overbay has, I can’t imagine that number will increase dramatically. One way or another he’ll get a better hitter behind him, whether it’s due to Overbay playing better or if it’s someone like Gonzalez or Snider moving to the fifth spot.
IBBs aren’t factored in to wOBA.
How about Alex Rios?
Well, if “albatross” is intended in Coleridge’s sense of something that hangs around until the rest of the crew is dead, Rios doesn’t really qualify — the Jays did manage to get rid of him. Of course, if his arrival marks the beginning of the end to Kenny Williams’ employment in the way it did Ricciardi, perhaps it would be better to nominate him to the Monkey’s Paw team.
Sailors actually consider albatrosses to be good luck. If we want to use albatross in the Coleridge sense, these GMs need to kill the players and hang them around their necks!
I think it’s the contract that is a dead bird, not the player. At the league minimum, Vernon Wells would still find takers, even before this year’s still-dubious rejuvenation. But with the dollars attached, it’s a dead weight hanging around the neck of the team — they can’t take it off, they can’t give it away, and they can’t bring it back to life. And meanwhile it serves as both a reminder of the stupidity of the captain and an impediment to righting the ship.
How about Carlos Lee?
Yeah, that would have been a great choice, too.
Soriano cant get around on the Fastball anymore, and pitchers know it. They now throw him almost nothing but Sliders, Curves and Cutters not fearing the possibility of falling behind and being forced to throw a Fastball. Lyons inexplicably threw him 3 straight 90-91 MPH Fastballs the other day and Soriano was eventually able to turn on one for a double that would have hit the fielder if not for positioning.
So three straight fastballs and Soriano was able to drive the last one approximately 250-300 feet? Otherwise its bloopers and popups if he even makes contact? Seems its time to stick a fork in him. And to think, he has 5/90 left…
It might help if Soranio didn’t use a caveman club for a bat.
That was in response to
“Soriano cant get around on the Fastball anymore, and pitchers know it”
Agree.
Might also help if he gave any effort what so ever. But a split-screen Dunn beating him to second on a comparable double to center shows that aint happening.
Soriano can’t get around on fastballs, so pitchers throw him… something other than fastballs?
that is correct.
Anyone can get lucky off three straight fastballs, so thats a foolish game plan to anyone. But being unable to get around on the fastball or hit offspead stuff means throw him trash all day and if you fall behind, there is no fear of having to come inside with the fastball. Where before, throwing him trash and eventually being forced to go heater meant he put one in the stands.
WHAT FLAVOR IS IT????!!!
I’m confused as to why the ZiPS RoS projections change so dramatically after 2 weeks. Is this due to some sort of scouting observation? The changes can’t be based solely on numbers.
In other words, after the first 2 weeks, ZiPS sees a rise in true talent for Wells? Really?
If I had to guess, the regression to the mean was negative pre-season for most of these guys. Given their torrid starts I’d think that has flipped, and their regression is mostly negative. Think about it like this, if the mean is 0 and last years performance was about -1, then he regresses to -.5, so far this season they’ve been at 1, so they regress to .5. While the sample size is small, and I’m sure weighted accordingly, that’s still a pretty big swing. I’d also be willing to wager that a sharp guy like Dan has a group of “hot starter-low baseline” comps stored away somewhere he’s using.
You’ll have to ask Dan S. for specific information, but any projection can be updated with more recent data, weighted, regressed, and otherwise adjusted properly. THT used to have “in-season” Marcels that did this, and the spreadsheet is out there, if you’re willing to update it for 2010.
Aaron Rowand??
EXITING POST MATT!!!! LISTENING TO MILEY CYRUS RIGHT NOW AND THINKING ABOUT VERNON WELLS!!!!! LET’S DO THIS THING!!!!!!