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Appreciating the Rockies and Rays

During Monday’s All-Day chat here at FanGraphs, someone asked our favorite teams and I piped up with the Colorado Rockies (I’m watching them right now) and the Tampa Bay Rays. My main reason for listing those two teams is simple: They both developed much of their own talent. As a prospect follower, that’s a pretty big positive.

So, let’s have a look at exactly where the Rays’ and Rox’ 2010 Opening Day talent comes from.

Tampa Bay Rays
James Shields: Drafted
Matt Garza: Trade
David Price: Drafted
Jeff Niemann: Drafted
Wade Davis: Drafted

Rafael Soriano: Trade
Dan Wheeler: Trade
Andy Sonnanstine: Drafted
Grant Balfour: Trade
Mike Ekstrom: Waivers
Lance Cormier: Free Agent
Randy Choate: Free Agent

Kelly Shoppach: Trade
Carlos Pena: Free Agent
Sean Rodriguez: Trade
Evan Longoria: Draft
Jason Bartlett: Trade
Pat Burrell: Free Agent
Carl Crawford: Draft
B.J. Upton: Draft
Ben Zobrist: Trade

Dioner Navarro: Trade
Reid Brignac: Draft
Willy Aybar: Trade
Gabe Kapler: Free Agent

Totals:
Drafted: 9
Amateur Draft: 0
Traded: 10
Free Agency: 5
Waived: 1

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Scouting Mike Leake

The Background: Leake, 22, jumps right to the Majors without playing a single game in the minor leagues (save for six appearances in the Arizona Fall League). He beat out Travis Wood and Aroldis Chapman for the final spot in the Cincinnati Reds starting rotation. The club’s first round pick from ’09 (eighth overall) was drafted out of Arizona State University and signed by scout Clark Crist.

Leake was a favorite amongst MLB teams as an advanced college pitcher that should make the Majors quickly. The right-hander did not have the best stuff in the draft but he still produced solid numbers: 1.71 ERA, 6.0 H/9, 1.5 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9. He also allowed just four home runs in 142.0 innings of work.

The Pre-Game Scouting Report: Leake’s fastball is said to be in the 88-94 mph range and it sits 89-91 mph. It is also said to have natural cutting action and good movement. When he’s on, he should produce a good number of ground-ball outs. As for his secondary stuff, he is said to have a 79-82 mph slider, a solid change-up and a show-me curveball. His control is good, his command is plus. Just 6’0”, he’s athletic, durable, and has good mound presence.

* * *

Game: March 20 (Spring Exhibition)
Opponent: San Francisco Giants (Todd Wellemeyer)
Conditions: Afternoon game, sunny, no wind, 66 F

The Notes: In his first inning of work against the Giants (the fourth inning of the game), Leake was flying open with his shoulder while facing the first three batters. He gave up a first-pitch single, recorded an out thanks to a diving grab by center-fielder Chris Burke (yes, that Chris Burke), and recorded the lead runner on an unsuccessful first-pitch sac bunt. Once he fixed his motion, Leake looked better but his fastball was almost exclusively 88-89 mph. The majority of his pitches were fastballs, with two sliders mixed in.

During his second inning on the mound, Leake’s command was off and he varied his arm angles, dropping as far down as sidearm. He also broke out the fading change-up to left-handed batters, but the hitters weren’t biting; the pitches were down and off the plate. He was definitely getting his fastballs up more than a ground-ball pitcher should.

Leake looked tired in his third inning of work and start off the inning by mixing his pitches more than he did in previous at-bats. His stuff lacked movement and he was hanging his curveball. He just missed giving up a three-run homer to back-up catcher Eli Whiteside.

The Conclusion: Leake’s fastball hit 90 mph just once in this three-inning outing. He varied his arm angles to give the hitters different looks but it seemed to throw off his control. The former first rounder’s heater was MLB average-at-best in this game. His secondary stuff wasn’t fooling anyone, for the most part. He recorded three ground-ball outs, one strikeout, and five fly-ball outs. Leake definitely did not look like a former first rounder in this game… and he certainly did not look like a pitcher worthy of skipping the minor leagues all together. It will be interesting to see him pitch when he’s on his game.

* * *

Travis Wood (starter): Wood was battling Leake for the fifth spot in the rotation until the final days of the spring. Wood had a breakout year in ’09 after significantly improving his control. He’ll head down to triple-A and should be one of the first starting pitchers recalled by the Reds (along with Aroldis Chapman). Wood was originally a second round pick out of a Arkansas high school in 2005 (signed by Mike Keenan).

In this game, Wood gave up three runs on two homers (Edgar Renteria, Aubrey Huff) in the first inning. The first bomb came on a 91-mph fastball up and over the plate; Wood was behind in the count 2-0. The second jack came two batters later on what appeared to be an 86-mph cutter up – again up and over the plate. He doesn’t have the velo to pitch up in the zone like that and his pitches lacked movement in the first inning. Wood’s command was much better in his second inning and he struck out the first two batters on cutters. It’s clear that he pitches better when he takes a little off of his fastball. His curve is a show-me pitch. Wood also has a good pick-off move and caught Andres Torres in the second inning.

Logan Ondrusek (relief): A surprise addition to the Opening Day roster, the 6’8” Ondrusek took a while to conquer his delivery – as most tall pitchers do – and he spent five seasons in minors after being nabbed out of a small community college in the 13th round of the 2005 draft (signed by scout Brian Wilson). The right-hander flew through high-A and double-A in ’09 before settling in at triple-A. The big reason for his success was a new-found cutter, as well as an improvement in his fastball velocity while working exclusively out of the bullpen (from 88-92 to 92-95 mph).

Against the Giants, Ondrusek mainly used his fastball and cutter. He was pretty much 88-90 mph with the fastball. He was comfortable busting hitters inside and also worked away effectively but he might need to change hitters’ eye levels a bit more often to be successful at the MLB level. In his first inning of work, Ondrusek worked up in the zone, which caused him to get a lot of fly balls. He actually did not record a ground-ball out in this game (four FBs and two Ks).


Organizational Rankings: Future Talent – Yankees

The New York Yankees club is clearly the No. 1 organization in baseball and it has remained a powerhouse for as long as it has because of its ability to sustain itself through in-house player development. The club has done this both by slotting home-grown talent into key roles and by trading prospects for proven veterans.

General manager Brian Cashman does not get the credit that he deserves, partially because he has been overshadowed by the Steinbrenners, and in part due to the fact that he has a large budget to work with. Make no mistake about it, though, he rarely makes a bad move.

Damon Oppenheimer enters his sixth season overseeing the amateur draft. The club has done a respectable job in recent years despite having one of the last selections in the first round. The club picked up some interesting talent in ’09, including outfielder Slade Heathcott, catcher J.R. Murphy, and pitcher Bryan Mitchell. The club’s ’08 effort was a little ugly when the club failed to sign top pick Gerrit Cole and second rounder Scott Bittle. It found some later-round diamonds-in-the-rough to help compensate (Brett Marshall, D.J. Mitchell).

The team also spends a lot of money on the international market. Recent signings include Gary Sanchez, Gian Carlos Arias, Ramon Flores, Jackson Valera, Yeicok Calderon, and Anderson Felix.

The organizaiton has perhaps the best catching depth in baseball, with the likes of Jesus Montero, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez, and J.R. Murphy. A lot has been made about a possible move from behind the plate for Montero, but he has the bat (and massive power) to play anywhere, while Romine could develop into a Grade-A catching prospect to help fill the gap left behind.

The starting pitching depth in the system is down a bit but the club has spent a lot of money in the free agent market so that’s not a great concern, either. The club does have some talented arms that can help out in the bullpen, including David Robertson, Mark Melancon, and good ol’ Joba Chamberlain. Phil Hughes is a rare youngster that has been able to crack the veteran-laden starting rotation after cutting his teeth in the bullpen in ’09. And don’t forget that he’s still just 23 years old.

The starting lineup does not feature many young players, but left-fielder Brett Gardner is expected to play regularly for the club. He should much-needed speed on the base paths. New center-fielder Curtis Granderson was acquired this past off-season for young players Austin Jackson, Phil Coke, and Ian Kennedy. All three players have potential but they had greater value to the organization as trading chips. And Granderson could absolutely explode playing in Yankee stadium and with the lineup protection around him.

The main core of the Yankees big league club is getting older, but the team’s ability to compete is not going to disappear any time soon. It has the resources and know-how to ensure that the organization remains a powerhouse for years to come.


Organizational Rankings: Future Talent – Boston

Boston is an organization that has a lot of money but it is also a very smart organization; it’s run by people that could probably turn a team with a $40-million budget into a World Champion.

Much like the Tampa Bay Rays, whom we looked at yesterday, the organization is led by a young, aggressive general manager: Theo Epstein. Although a lot of the organization’s front office talent has been picked through over the past few years – including Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod – the club still has some very smart men overseeing the club’s future stars. Mike Hazen continues on in his role as director of player development, while the scouting department will have a new leader in 2010 with the loss of McLeod to the San Diego Padres organization.

The club on the field consists mostly of veteran players. Younger, home-grown talent includes outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury and second baseman Dustin Pedroia. Jon Lester has developed into a legitimate No. 2 starter in the rotation, and Clay Buchholz also has promise and has been coveted by a number of teams in trade talks. Closer Jonathan Papelbon, another home-grown talent, is no longer a “young player” but his eventual replacement – Daniel Bard – is.

The organization has done a nice job of developing both top tiered amateur talent (Casey Kelly, Derrick Gibson) and lower round selections (Josh Reddick). With money to burn, the club has used its monetary advantage to sign some high-risk, over-slot player such as Ryan Westmoreland, Lars Anderson, Ryan Kalish, and Anthony Rizzo. Over the past three seasons, the club has handed out more over-slot deals (outside of the first three rounds) than any other team in baseball: 16. Along with the amateur draft, the club is a major player in the international market with the signing of players such as Junichi Tazawa, Stolmy Pimentel, and Jose Iglesias.

The club is not afraid to use its young players as bargaining chips in trades for proven talent, such as catcher Victor Martinez. The organization sent young pitchers Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, and Bryan Price to Cleveland. One player that Boston would like to have back is shortstop Hanley Ramirez, who was part of the loot sent to Florida for pitcher Josh Beckett in 2005.

This club may technically be a veteran team, but the organization knows how to acquire, develop and utilize young talent to its fullest.


Organizational Rankings: Future Talent – Tampa Bay

To say the future is bright in Tampa Bay is a bit of an understatement. Youth is front-and-center with the Rays organization; the club has done an enviable job of developing its home-grown talent. Both the scouting and the player development staffs should be given gold medals.

The youth movement actually begins with Andrew Friedman, one of the brightest, young front office men in the game. Although he hasn’t done a ton of wheeling and dealing, Friedman has managed to score interesting prospects such as Sean Rodriguez, Matt Sweeney, Alexander Torres, and Aneury Rodriguez.

Scouting director R.J. Harrison enters his fifth season in the role and has overseen the selecting of players such as David Price, Evan Longoria, Desmond Jennings, and Matt Moore. Mitch Lukevics, director of minor league operations, is in charge of the prospects once they enter the system; players such as Jennings, Moore and even Jeremy Hellickson are prospects that have been drafted outside the first three rounds and developed into top prospects. Although the club has received favorable drafting slots in recent years, it clearly makes great use of later round picks.

The draft hasn’t always gone smoothly for the organization, though. The club hit a huge speed bump in 2009 when it failed to sign its first two selections in LeVon Washington and Kenny Diekroeger, both interesting selections to begin with. The organization made up for it, to some degree, by nabbing some higher-ceiling (but higher risk) players in later rounds: catcher Luke Bailey, first baseman Jeff Malm, and pitcher Kevin James.

Not known as an international powerhouse, the organization has one Latin player amongst its Top 10 prospects (pitcher Alexander Colome). The club did break into the European market this past off-season by signing Czech left-hander Stepan Havlicek.

On the big league squad, the team boasts some exciting talent, including the enigmatic B.J. Upton, third baseman Longoria, and second baseman Rodriguez. Young position players marching through the minor league system include nearly-ready Jennings, Tim Beckham, and Reid Brignac. The depth isn’t great, but Jennings has the chance to be a special player.

The starting rotation is the backbone of this club. James Shields is the old man of the group at 28, followed by Jeff Niemann, 27, Matt Garza, 26, Wade Davis, 24, and David Price, 24. All five pitchers arguably have the ceilings of at least a No. 2 starter. Looking down into the minor leagues and the club has a ton of pitching depth, including Hellickson, Moore, Colome, Nick Barnese, Kyle Lobstein, and even Jacob McGee, who is making his way back from injury.

This club can compete with the best organizations in the Major Leagues right now, and it should continue to be a powerhouse for years to come.


Organizational Rankings: Future Talent – Colorado

The Colorado Rockies club is one of the most self-sufficient organizations in baseball. With the exception of Carlos Gonzalez in left field, the club projects to feature a starting lineup of players that were all originally signed by the organization. There is also a lot of young talent to be found, including Troy Tulowitzki (25) at shortstop, Ian Stewart (24) at third, Chris Iannetta (26) behind the dish, Dexter Fowler in center field (24) and the aforementioned Gonzalez (24). On the pitching staff, the club boasts the likes of Ubaldo Jimenez (26), Franklin Morales (24), and Manny Corpas (27). All three pitchers are members of the Rockies’ international scouting efforts.

That is an impressive collection of talent… but wait – there’s more to come. Pitchers Christian Friedrich, Jhoulys Chacin, Esmil Rogers, Casey Weathers, and Sam Deduno are not far away from helping the big league club. If you like offense, Eric Young Jr., Hector Gomez, and Mike McKenry could all be in the Majors within the next year or two.

The club also had an outstanding ’09 amateur draft, which netted No. 1 pick Tyler Matzek (arguably the best prep arm), college pitcher Rex Brothers, outfielder Tim Wheeler, and third baseman Nolan Arenado. The only negative to the organization’s collection of talent is that it lacks a true can’t-miss, impact bat. The club’s drafting efforts have improved with each of the past three drafts. As mentioned, the club has also had a lot of success with mining the international market despite not shelling out for the perceived top talent.

The organization obviously believes in stability amongst it’s front office. General manager Dan O’Dowd has held his position since late 1999 and the club’s scouting efforts have been overseen by Bill Schmidt since 2000. Marc Gustafson continues to direct the club’s minor league system as senior director of player development. He’s been overseeing the Rockies’ prospects since 2001.

After almost a decade, the organization is still having a lot of success with developing its own talent and there is no reason to expect anything to change in the near future.


Organizational Rankings: Future Talent – Atlanta

Once a powerhouse in developing young talent – especially pitchers – the organization slipped a bit in the player development game in the early-to-mid-2000s. You can now argue that the organization is back on track, and focusing on quality, rather than quantity – and that it’s diversified its portfolio.

Tommy Hanson, currently in the Braves starting rotation, is just 23 and entering his sophomore season in the big leaguers. The right-hander burst onto the scene in ’09 by posting a 3.50 FIP and allowing just 105 hits in 127.2 innings of work. The club will also feature an early Rookie of the Year favorite in right-fielder Jason Heyward. The prospect put on an epic display this spring and his size, tools, and statistics suggest he could become a massive star in a hurry. I’m tempted to invoke the name of Albert Pujols… but I won’t.

The club has some other young players helping out at the MLB level, too, including second baseman Martin Prado, catcher Brian McCann, shortstop Yunel Escobar, outfielder Melky Cabrera and pitcher Jair Jurrjens. It’s a good, young core to build around. The organization’s Top 10 prospect list also includes promising names like first baseman Freddie Freeman, catcher Christian Bethancourt, and pitchers Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino, and Craig Kimbrel.

The club’s mid-2000s stumble was partially due to poor drafting choices with the likes of Macay McBride, Jeff Francoeur, Luis Atilano, Eric Campbell, Joey Devine, and Cody Johnson. Top international prospects like Wilson Betemit and Andy Marte also failed to develop. Pitcher Adam Wainwright was in Cy Young consideration last year, but he did not blossom until entering the St. Louis Cardinals organization.

While employing a win-now attitude, the club has sacrificed a lot of young talent over the past few seasons, including pitcher Neftali Feliz, shortstop Elvis Andrus, as well as catchers Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Tyler Flowers.

There was a small shift in draft philosophy in 2009 as the club took two college players with its only two selections in the first three rounds, including first rounder Mike Minor. Those were the first four-year college selections that the club had made in the first three rounds of the amateur draft in three years – unless you count reliever Joshua Fields in ’07, whom the club failed to sign.

After 10 years, scouting director Roy Clark has been replaced by Tony DeMacio. It will be interesting to see what direction the club takes with the 2010 amateur draft. The organization punted its first-round selection for veteran reliever Billy Wagner, but it has a supplemental first round pick and an extra second rounder for the loss of Mike Gonzalez. Whoever ends up getting selected will be overseen by Kurt Kemp, who enters his third season as director of player development.

It’s actually kind of scary to think about what this club would be capable of in three to five years if it had a lineup including Flowers, McCann, Freeman, Escobar, Andrus, and Heyward, as well as a staff led by Hanson and Feliz. Even without that day dreaming, the organization still has a pretty promising future, especially if it can re-focus its efforts in the amateur market.


Organizational Rankings: Future Talent – Philadephia

The Philadelphia Phillies organization has done a nice job of developing its own players, as witnessed by the likes of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Jimmy Rollins. That pipeline, though, has been slowed in recent years. The club lacks the can’t miss prospect at the top of the system, although outfielder Domonic Brown is a very talented player and could develop into an above-average player.

Trades for the likes of Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay have weakened the system. The re-trade of Lee for a collection of prospects including Juan Ramirez, Phillippe Aumont, and Tyson Gillies does not come close to replacing the likes of Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and Travis d’Arnaud.

With all that said, there are some interesting names in the minor league system, including pitchers Trevor May, Scott Mathieson, and Brody Colvin, as well as catcher Sebastian Valle, first baseman Jonathan Singleton, and outfielder Anthony Gose. Many of those players, though, are very raw.

The club is definitely veteran-heavy at the MLB level. Starting pitcher J.A. Happ is one of the few players 27 years of age or younger. The youngest hitter on the 40-man roster is shortstop Brian Bocock (age 25), a fringe big leaguer who was claimed off waivers during the off-season.

Although not a major player in the world market, the club has nine international prospects on its Top 30 prospect list, according to Baseball America. The organization’s draft results have been modest over the past three seasons but the club remains loyal to scouting director Marti Wolever, who is in his ninth season as scouting director. First round picks Joe Savery (2007) and Anthony Hewitt (2008) have been disappointments, while the club lacked a first-round selection in 2009. It’s no secret that the club likes to gamble with prep picks. Over the last three drafts, the club has selected just three four-year college players in the Top 3 rounds and with its over-slot deals (20 picks in total). That puts a heavy burden on the player development system, and the jury is still out on that.

Once the main core of star players start to fade out or become too expensive, Philadelphia could be in trouble. The minor league depth is certainly showing signs of wear and tear. The organization has also had trouble developing impact pitching with the likes of Cole Hamels, Brett Myers (now with Houston), and Carlos Carrasco (Cleveland) failing to reach their potentials. Former prep phenom Gavin Floyd did not start pitching well until he reached the Chicago White Sox organization.

The Phillies’ Major League roster is a World Series threat entering 2010, but cracks are starting to show on the foundation.


Organizational Rankings: Future Talent – LA Dodgers

This once-mighty prospect factory has fallen on hard times to a degree. The organization has some interesting sleepers – Trayvon Robinson, Kenley Jansen, and Allen Webster, for example – but it lacks the impressive collection of high-ceiling talent that it once had. With that said, the likes of Devaris Gordon, Andrew Lambo, Josh Lindblom, Ethan Martin, and Chris Withrow possess a lot of potential.

There is a serious lack of depth at catcher, first base, second base, third base, and left-handed pitching. The deepest positions are right-handed pitching and the outfield. Gordon and Ivan DeJesus Jr. are interesting shortstop prospects.

The organization’s recent drafts have been good but they really haven’t produced high-ceiling talents. Aaron Miller was an interesting pick in ’09 but he was not a consensus first round selection, and the club chose not to sign players to over-slot deals. Martin (’08) and Withrow (’07) have the potential to be impact starters but they have yet to truly take “that next step.” Scouting director Tim Hallgren, in his fourth season, will have his work cut out for him. This organization needs depth.

The organization’s international signing efforts have also fallen on hard times. Based on Baseball America’s Top 30 prospect list for the Dodgers, the club has just four international prospects amongst the organization’s best players. Four. Five years ago, the club had nine international prospects listed. In the publication’s first handbook in 2001, the system had 11 internationally signed Top 30 prospects. The organization’s player development system seems lost. Where is the club investing in prospects?

On the plus side, the club does have some exciting, young players currently in the Major Leagues. Outfielders Matt Kemp (25) and Andre Ethier (27) are some of the best hitters in the NL West under the age of 30. Kemp flirted with a .300 average while also just missing a 30-30 season. He drove in 100 runs for the first time in his career. Ethier also topped 100 RBI for the first time and slugged 31 homers and 42 doubles. James Loney (25) doesn’t have prototypical power, but he’s a valuable first baseman. Catcher Russell Martin is just 27 but his bat has fallen on hard times.

On the mound, the club has innings-eater Chad Billingsley (25) in the starting rotation and bulldog Jonathan Broxton (25) holding down the bullpen. Left-hander Clayton Kershaw, 22, has the ceiling of a No. 1 starter. Those are three very talented arms, but the depth is just not there are the MLB level, either.

There are a lot of question marks surrounding this organization entering the 2010 season and there may not be many answers until the ownership mess is resolved.


Organizational Rankings: Future Talent – New York Mets

What to make of the Mets?

The club currently seems to be drifting a little aimlessly and that indecisiveness can be felt in the minor leagues, as well. The club has some interesting players but they can best be described as promising but raw, especially when discussing the likes of Wilmer Flores, Jeurys Familia, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Juan Urbina, and Kyle Allen.

The club has also received mixed results from top draft picks like Ike Davis, Reese Havens, and Brad Holt. The lack of first round picks in ’07 and ’09 has hurt – especially since the club doesn’t seem to believe in playing the over-slot game. The ’07 draft was an absolute disaster. As well, the club hasn’t had much luck scouting later round players, with the odd exception like catcher Josh Thole.

If there is one bright spot, it’s the club’s ability to scout the international market. Some of the key players signed by the Mets organization include perennial prospect Fernando Martinez, Ruben Tejada, Jenrry Mejia, Jefry Marte, Cesar Puello, Flores, Urbina,

At the MLB level, the club has two of the most talented young players in the game: David Wright and Jose Reyes. Unfortunately, they are both coming off of nightmarish seasons. The 27-year-old third baseman is entering his seventh MLB season and he experienced his worst power season in ’09 after hitting just 10 homers in 535 at-bats and posting an ISO rate of .140 (His first season below .217). On the plus side, he still hit more than .300 and stole 27 bases. Reyes suffered through injuries in ’09 and appeared in just 36 games. A thyroid condition will likely bite into his 2010 season.

The 24-year-old Daniel Murphy will man first base in 2010 for the Mets but he’s miscast at the position. He’s not likely to produce more than fringe-average power for the position after posting an ISO rate of .160 over the past two seasons. His wOBA of .318 suggests he’s a platoon player at best.

There is some youth in the starting rotation with Mike Pelfrey (26), and Jon Niese (23) but neither player projects as more than a No. 3 starter. The club is currently toying (stupidly) with the idea of keeping 20 year old Mejia at the MLB level to begin 2010. The club would utilize the top prospect – who has just 10 appearances above A-ball – in the bullpen, much like the Rangers did with Neftali Feliz in ’09, albeit for a small portion of the season.

The club’s insistence on rushing its young players through the system is both baffling and frustrating. It’s had its ups (Reyes) and its downs (Martinez). The big league club has a mix of young players and veterans, but I’m not sure it’s the right mix.