General Manager: Bill Smith
Farm Director: Jim Rantz
Scouting Director: Deron Johnson

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

Aaron Hicks has the potential to be a massive star, if he can round his game into form. There are some other interesting bats in the upper levels of the Top 10 list, but they’re all raw in many facets of their games. There is some solid pitching in the latter half of the list, but their ceilings are limited. Minnesota drafted a number of power arms in ’09, which could help infuse some helium into the pitching side of the system. If all goes well in 2010, this organization could see a real rise in value from its prospects.

1. Aaron Hicks, OF, Low-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: B Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – California HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Even after an outstanding debut in ’08, the organization was patient with Hicks, who began the ’09 season in extended spring training before moving up to low-A at mid-season. The outfielder hit a respectable .251/.353/.382 in 251 at-bats. With his speed, he should see an increase in his BABIP (.307) in 2010, which will help his overall numbers. He showed a willingness to take a free pass in his first season and that continued last year with a walk rate of 13.7%. Hicks’ strikeout rate was rather high at 21.9%, especially for someone who posted an ISO rate of just .131, but he has raw power. The outfielder did not run as much in ’09 and Hicks showed inexperience on the base paths by getting gunned down eight times in 18 attempts. He is a gifted fielder with a canon for an arm, that can hit the mid-to-high 90s on the mound (He was an amateur pitcher, as well as a hitter).

2. Wilson Ramos, C, Double-A
DOB: August 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

With reigning AL MVP Joe Mauer behind the dish, the last thing the Twins organization needs is a top prospect at the catching position. But the club certainly won’t complain, as Mauer could eventually move off the position to save his knees, or Ramos could end up being a valuable trade commodity. Either way, the Venezuela native isn’t far from being MLB-ready after hitting .317/.341/.454 in ’09 at double-A. Ramos has always hit for a solid average, but he’s also consistently produced healthy BABIPs, although many catchers suffer from chronically-low numbers in that area (due to a lack of foot speed). A catcher with raw power, he has nonetheless failed to post an ISO above .149 in his four-year career. Ramos also posted a walk rate of just 2.8% in ’09, so that obviously has to improve and he typically walks about 7.0%. His strikeout rate plummeted from 22.8% in ’08 to 11.2% in ’09, but injuries took a chunk out of his season and he had just 214 plate appearances. We’ll have to wait for 2010 to see if that was a true adjustment, or a small-sample-size blip. Behind the dish, Ramos has thrown out +40% in each of the past three seasons.

3. Danny Valencia, 3B, Triple-A
DOB: September 1984 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 19th round – University of Miami
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

It’s not often that you see a low-drafted college player end up on a team’s Top 10 list, but Valencia has shown a lot of improvements since turning pro. His .285 average in ’09 was a career low (split between double-A and triple-A), so the third baseman can certainly swing the bat. He hit .284/.373/.482 in 218 double-A at-bats, before moving up to triple-A, where he hit .286/.305/.454 in 269 at-bats. Valencia’s numbers took a hit after the promotion – especially his on-base percentage – because his walk rate plummeted from 12.4 to 2.9%. If we’re looking for a positive, though, his strikeout rate also dropped – from 18.3 to 13.8%. Valencia has shown some power in the minors, but he’s never broken the magic .200 ISO mark, which suggests he’ll probably top out in the 15-20 homer range in the Majors.

4. Angel Morales, OF, Low-A
DOB: November 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 3rd round – Puerto Rico HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

When he was drafted, Morales was about as raw as they come. But he also has some of the best power potential of any hitter in the minors; he just needs to make more contact. The Puerto Rican outfielder posted an otherworldly .322 ISO at rookie ball in ’08 and he followed that up with a rate of .189 at low-A in ’09. Despite the drop in power, Morales showed some improvements with his bat control, as his strikeout rate dropped from 39.3 to 27.7%. Overall, he hit .266/.329/.455 in 376 at-bats with 19 steals in 25 tries. He could eventually turn into a 20-20 (or even 30-30) player, once he sharpens his base running. Defensively, he has a strong arm and has played both center and right field in the minors. Considering that Morales is just scratching the surface of his potential and he posted a .361 wOBA in ’09 at the age of 19, it’s not hard to be excited about his future.

5. Ben Revere, OF, High-A
DOB: May 1988 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – Kentucky HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Revere has a fun skill set, and he’s certainly not your typical No. 1 draft pick. The outfielder is just 5’9” and he possesses little-to-no power (.058 ISO in ’09), which is a bit of an issue considering that it’s dropped with each promotion in the minors. There is some concern that Revere could have the bat knocked out of his hands at the MLB level. What he does do well, though, is hit for average (.311 is his career low) and steal bases (89 bases in the past two seasons, caught 30 times). Revere does a nice job of playing “small ball,” as he posted a BB/K rate of 1.18 in high-A ball this past season. He certainly does not have to worry about being platooned, with a career line against southpaws of .365/.425/.430. The speedy outfielder has a good defensive reputation in center, although his weak arm could eventually require a move to left field.

6. Joe Benson, OF, High-A
DOB: March 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 2nd round – Illinois HS
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The first six prospects on the Top 10 list are all hitters, and Benson makes it four outfielders in the Top 6 picks, so it’s obvious where the organization’s strengths lie. The former prep football player has taken some time to develop his skills on the diamond, but the organization’s patience is starting to pay off. Benson spent the season in high-A ball where he hit .285/.414/.403 as a 21 year old. Injuries limited the outfielder to just 327 plate appearances. In the past, Benson has struggled to get his average above .260 so we must be cautious in our optimism considering that his ’09 BABIP was rather high at .380. The right-handed hitter showed improvements in his walk rate, which rose from 8.6 to 14.9%. His strikeout rate remained high, though, at 28.1% and it was not justifiable by the .118 ISO rate. Durability is also a concern with Benson, who has appeared in just 149 games over the past two minor league seasons.

7. Jeff Manship, RHP, Majors
DOB: January 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 14th round – Notre Dame
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, plus curveball, slider, change-up

Manship made his MLB debut in ’09 and proved to be a valuable arm for the club, as he made five starts and six relief appearances. Overall, he allowed a few too many hits with 39 in 31.2 innings, and he struggled with his control by posting an unusually-high walk rate of 4.26 BB/9. Manship began the season by making 13 starts in double-A before moving up to triple-A, where he started another eight games. With a four-pitch mix and a plus breaking ball, Manship has the potential to be a No. 4 starter for the Twins, but he’ll have to improve his high-80s fastball (-1.87 runs above average per 100). He also needs to throw a few more first-pitch strikes, as his rate of 52.7% was 6% below the league average.

8. David Bromberg, RHP, High-A
DOB: September 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2005 32nd round – Santa Ana College
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 FB, CB, CH

Despite some inconsistent command of his pitches, Bromberg does a number of things well. He misses his fair share of bats (8.69 K/9 rate in high-A), he keeps the ball in the yard (0.35 HR/9) and he has never posted a FIP above 3.56. This past season, he also allowed just 125 hits in 153.1 innings. The right-hander limited left-handed batters to a .210 batting average and posted a strikeout rate of 9.36 against them. At 6’5”, 230 lbs, Bromberg has the chance to be a durable No. 3 or 4 starter for the Twins.

9. Carlos Gutierrez, RHP, Double-A
DOB: September 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – University of Miami
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Gutierrez’ future role – starter or reliever – is still up in the air. The right-hander is a ground-ball machine and he posted a worm-burning rate of 62.7% in ’09. If he can miss a few more bats and increase his strikeout rate from 5.08 K/9, then Gutierrez could certainly be something special. It was a tale of two seasons for the right-hander in ’09, as he posted a 3.55 FIP and 0.16 HR/9 rate in high-A, before moving up to double-A where his FIP was 5.02 and his home-run rate jumped to 1.03 HR/9. The main culprit for the FIP increase was Gutierrez’ BABIP, which went from an incredibly-low .229 to .326. Struggles with his command led to the increase in homers. Commanding his sinking fastball in 2010 will be key, as Gutierrez has yet to improve his secondary pitches to the point where they can miss bats on a regular basis (The slider has the most promise).

10. Tyler Robertson, LHP, High-A
DOB: December 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 3rd round – California HS
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, plus slider, change-up

Robertson sneaks on to the back-end of the Top 10 list thanks to his youthfulness (22), his handedness (southpaw) and his ground-ball tendencies (career 52.6%). The young left-hander needs to miss a few more bats, though, to truly take his game to the next level; he posted a strikeout rate of just 6.47 K/9 in high-A. He does a nice job of keeping the ball in the park and posted a home-run rate of 0.44 HR/9. Interestingly, his BABIP has decreased each season since his debut year of ’06, and it reached a low of .305 in ’09. Robertson has had some pretty extreme splits over the past two seasons. This past season, left-handed batters hit .200 with a strikeout rate of 7.33, compared to right-handers with a .300 average and 5.61 K/9 rate.

A special thanks to Aaron Gleeman of Circling The Bases for his insight.

Up Next: The Milwaukee Brewers

General Manager: Bill Smith
Farm Director: Jim Rantz
Scouting Director: Deron Johnson

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-draft signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Kyle Gibson, RHP, U of Missouri
1S. Matt Bashore, LHP, Indiana
2. Billy Bullock, RHP, Florida
3. Ben Tootle, RHP, Jacksonville State

If he can stay healthy, Gibson could be a real steal here for the Twins. The Missouri right-hander was set to go in the Top 10 picks before a stress fracture in his forearm caused him to slip to the Twins at the 22nd pick. He has solid control and good secondary pitches, which makes him a potential No. 2 starter, if everything clicks. Gibson’s pro debut will come in 2010 and he’ll likely begin the year in one of the Twins’ A-ball affiliates. Bashore is the second in a quartet of college pitchers taken with the club’s first four selections. He made just one relief appearance after being drafted, but the lefty features four pitches, including a splitter and a fastball that can touch 95 mph.

Bullock made 33 appearances after signing. He showed knock-out stuff in low-A by posting a strikeout rate of 11.96 K/9. Bullock did not allow a home run in his debut, despite a ground-ball rate of just 33.3%. He’ll need to get the ball down a little more consistently, as well as improve his control (4.10 BB/9) as he moves up the ladder. With a mid-90s fastball, though, and a durable frame, he has the potential to be a big-league closer. Tootle pitched just six innings after signing, but he was a nice grab in the third round. He has a mid-90s fastball but his secondary pitches are raw, so there’s talk of him turning to the bullpen in pro ball, despite pitching mainly out of the starting rotation in college. Like Bullock, there is potential there for as a late-game reliever.

The organization did its best Detroit Tigers impression, by stocking up on flame-throwing college arms. One of the best clubs at developing big-league pitchers, it will be interesting to see what the organization can do with the above hurlers.

2008 1st Round: Aaron Hicks, OF, California HS
1. Carlos Gutierrez, RHP, Miami
1S. Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane
2. Tyler Ladendorf, SS, Texas JC
3. Bobby Lanigan, RHP, Adelphi
6x – B.J. Hermsen, RHP, Iowa HS
30x – Mike Tonkin, RHP, California HS

Hicks remains an exciting selection at the top of this draft, and you’ll read more about him next week when the Top 10 list is posted. A surprise first-round pick, Gutierrez has been inconsistent but his ground-ball numbers were insane (62.7%) in 2009. Hunt was considered a solid pick in ’08, but a lot can change in a year. After posting a walk rate of 7.76 BB/9 in low-A ball in his debut, the right-hander’s control actually worsened and he walked 58 batters in 32.2 innings (for a walk rate of more than 15.50 BB/9). Maybe Rick Ankiel can teach Hunt how to hit?

Ladendorf was considered an offensive-minded middle infielder when he was drafted, but he’s struggled to hit above .230 since signing. He was sent to Oakland in a trade. Lanigan has been solid in pro ball. He spent most of ’09 in low-A ball, where he posted a 3.55 FIP and allowed 130 hits in 123.1 innings of work. The right-hander has solid control (2.12 BB/9) but his overall stuff (fastball velo, secondary pitches) is inconsistent.

A football injury scared most teams away, but the club took a gamble on Hermsen and it’s paid off, so far. The right-hander can reach the low-90s with his fastball, and he also gets more than his fair share of ground-ball outs (52.3%). He did not allow a home run in 53.1 innings this past season, and his walk rate was just 0.68 BB/9. However, Hermsen is not going to continue posting BABIPs of .228. Tonkin is an interesting sleeper prospect. He has good fastball velocity, and the former prep pick displays above-average control for his age (1.48 BB/9). Perhaps he throws a few too many strikes to the young, aggressive hitters in rookie ball, because he allowed 55 hits in 54.1 innings of work in ’09. If he can improve his breaking ball, watch out.

2007 1st Round: Ben Revere, OF, Kentucky HS
2. Danny Rams, C/1B, Florida HS
3. Angel Morales, OF, Puerto Rico HS

Revere continues to defy the odds and has made believers out of his doubters. He’s one of the most unique and fascinating players in the minors, but it remains to be seen how well his skill set will play in the Majors. Regardless, he’s a Top 10 prospect.

Beyond the club’s first pick, this is a pretty “meh” draft. Rams is still young, but crazy-high BABIPs have not helped him hit for average, mainly due to his strikeout rates (44.0% in low-A). The raw power is there (.200 ISO), but he needs to get that swing under control. Morales is another unrefined prospect with strikeout tendencies and impressive power potential. The Puerto Rican outfielder made some strides in ’09.

2006 1st Round: Chris Parmalee, OF/1B, California HS
2. Joe Benson, OF, Illinois HS
3. Tyler Robertson, LHP, California HS
14x – Jeff Manship, RHP, Notre Dame

Parmalee, Benson, and Robertson are all top prospects. Anthony Slama was a nice find in the 30th round, while 14th rounder Jeff Manship and 19th rounder Danny Valencia find themselves on the club’s Top 10 prospects list.

The club selected Jared Mitchell in the 10th round, out of a Louisiana high school. The outfielder became a No. 1 draft pick of the White Sox in 2009.

Up Next: The Minnesota Twins Top 10 Prospects

General Manager: Jim Hendry
Farm Director: Oneri Fleita
Scouting Director: Tim Wilken

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

There is definitely some excitement starting to build in the system. There are interesting names at the top of the list, as well as some sleepers sprinkled throughout the system, many of whom did not fit in the Top 10, which is a very nice thing to see for the Cubs. The organization certainly has a lot of depth in the middle infielder, but many of the arms are unproven and, in some cases, rather brittle.

1. Andrew Cashner, RHP, Double-A
DOB: September 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – Texas Christian University
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 90-95 mph fastball, slider, curve, change-up

Cashner has been a huge find for the organization. Mainly a reliever in college, the right-hander has proven his durability (and repertoire) as a starter. His 1.50 ERA in high-A certainly looks shiny, but his FIP was 3.18 (still good, just not great). At that level, Cashner allowed just 31 hits in 42.0 innings, while showing average control with a walk rate of 3.21 BB/9. His strikeout rate was respectable at 7.29 K/9. He then moved up to double-A, where he allowed 45 hits in 58.1 innings. Cashner’s walk rate increased (4.17 BB/9) and his strikeout rate dropped (6.33 K/9). On the plus side, his ground-ball rate remained around the 47% mark, and he allowed just one home run all season. Cashner will likely begin 2010 back in double-A, with a shot at contributing in Wrigley Field in the second half of the season.

2. Starlin Castro, SS, Double-A
DOB: March 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

There weren’t many prospects that more helium than Castro in ’09. The shortstop has not stopped hitting since going pro, and he followed up a .300+ debut with another solid offensive performance. Just 19, Castro was pushed from rookie ball to high-A ball and he still hit .302/.340/.391 in 358 at-bats. He also stole 22 bases but was caught 11 times, so he has some work to do on the bases. As well, Castro’s walk rate of just 5.0% was worrisome, but it improved to 8.3% upon a promotion to double-A (111 at-bats). Despite the late-season jump, the shortstop actually showed improvements in his game against better pitching. As mentioned, his walk rate rose, and he also kept his strikeout rate low at 10.8% while hitting .288. Castro was also successful in all six of his stolen base attempts in double-A. Defensively, he has the skill set to remain at shortstop. He’ll likely return to double-A to begin the season, but he’ll probably be the Cubs’ starting shortstop before his 21st birthday.

3. Josh Vitters, 3B, High-A
DOB: August 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

One of the top prep hitters in the ’07 draft, Vitters has shown a tendency to struggle with each promotion. He hit well during the beginning of the ’09 season in low-A (his second attempt at the level) by hitting .316/.351/.535 in 269 at-bats. He then moved up to high-A ball where he struggled by hitting just .238/.260/.344 in 189 at-bats. The approach to take with Vitters is clear: Don’t throw him any strikes. Keep the pitch off the plate and he’ll get himself out, either by striking out or by hitting a pitcher’s pitch, rather than waiting for something to drive. His walk rate of just 2.6% was a big step back – even from ’08 when he walked just 4.8% of the time in short-season ball. Vitters has shown flashes of having the power needed to remain at third base (.219 ISO in low-A), but that walk rate is going to haunt him at the upper levels of the minors, and it won’t play in the Majors.

4. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Short Season
DOB: November 1990 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 non-drafted international free agent (Korea)
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Castro can no doubt feel someone breathing down his neck; that someone is Lee. In his first taste of pro ball in North America, the Korean prospect hit .330/.399/.420 in 264 at-bats in short-season ball. Just 18 during the season, Lee did very well for his age and the 10.6% walk rate was certainly encouraging, as was the fact that the left-handed hitter kept his strikeout rate below 20% (18.9%). In a small sample size, the middle infielder performed well against both right-handers (.818 OPS) and left-handers (.827 OPS). He doesn’t have much power in his game right now (.091 ISO) but Lee projects to add at least gap power and could eventually grow into a 15 homer guy. Right now, though, he focuses on hitting the ball on the ground and utilizing his speed (63.5% ground-ball rate). Lee stole 25 bases in 33 attempts; if he keeps that up, he could be a real threat on the base paths for the Cubs.

5. Jay Jackson, RHP, Triple-A
DOB: October 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 9th round – Furman University
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, slider, curve, change-up

Jackson has been a solid find for the Cubs and has moved much quicker through the system than expected. The former two-way player spent time in high-A ball where he posted a 2.29 FIP, a walk rate of 0.94 and a strikeout rate of 10.80 in seven starts (38.1 IP). In double-A, Jackson struggled a bit with his control (4.25 BB/9), but he still missed his fair share of bats (8.38 K/9) and limited base runners with just 73 hits allowed in 82.2 innings. Overall on the year, Jackson held left-handed hitters to a .214 average, but he struggled with his control (4.72 BB/9 compared to 1.76 against right-handed batters). Just 22 years of age, Jackson received one triple-A start in ’09 and he should head back there in 2010. He has the makings of a No. 2 or 3 starter.

6. Chris Carpenter, RHP, Double-A
DOB: December 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Kent State University
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 90-95 mph fastball, curve, change-up

Plagued by injuries as an amateur, Carpenter has been healthy (knock on wood) as a pro. He made 27 starts over three levels in ’09 and reached double-A. Already 24, the right-hander signed as a senior out of college. He spent the majority of the ’09 season in low-A, where he posted a 3.66 FIP and allowed 55 hits in 73.2 innings. Carpenter struggled with his control a bit and he posted a walk rate of 4.03 BB/9. He also had a solid strikeout rate at 7.33 K/9. Moved up to high-A, he had a 2.16 FIP and allowed just 15 hits in 25.0 innings. Carpenter than headed for double-A, where he had a 3.04 FIP in 32.0 innings and did not allow a homer. He also showed solid walk and strikeout rates. Overall, Carpenter posted a ground-ball rate of 52.7% and limited line drives to just 13.2% on the season. He has the potential to be a solid No. 3 starter if he can stay healthy.

7. Ryan Flaherty, SS, Low-A
DOB: July 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 supplemental 1st round – Vanderbilt University
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Flaherty is in a bit of an uncomfortable position. The former college standout is a shortstop with Castro ahead of him, and Lee behind him. That is one of the reasons why the 23-year-old infielder spent the entire season in low-A ball. The other reason for his status is that he struggled in the first half of the year and really did not hit well until the second half (15 of his 20 homers came after June 1). The left-handed hitter also struggled against southpaws, having hit just .211/.287/.421. As a result, Flaherty could very well be headed for a platoon role, or back-up infielder role. One thing is fairly certain: He won’t be the everyday shortstop in Chicago as long as Castro is around. Flaherty potentially has the power (.194 ISO) to play third base. Overall in ’09, he had a solid season with a triple-slash line of .276/.344/.470 in 485 at-bats.

8. Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP, Short Season
DOB: March 1989 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Korea)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, curve, plus change-up

Rhee had an exciting debut in ’08 but Tommy John surgery showed its ugly face and derailed the Korean’s progress. The right-hander returned in ’09 but obviously was not at full strength. Rhee should return to low-A in 2010 and there is hope that his stuff will bounce back to its pre-surgery levels. If all goes well, he has the potential to be a No. 2 starter, but he’s still a long way off.

9. Logan Watkins, 2B, Short Season
DOB: August 1989 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 21st round – Kansas HS
MLB ETA: 40-Man Roster: Options:

Watkins is not as flashy as some of the other middle infielders in the system, but he’s shown a lot of potential in a short period of time. The second baseman has a career .326 batting average after two seasons in the low minors, thanks in part to some high BABIPs. Overall in ’09, he hit .326/.389/.391, with a .368 wOBA, in 279 at-bats. Watkins struck out just 11.1% of the time, while producing a reasonable walk rate of 8.8%. He has little-to-no power, and managed an ISO rate of just .065 in ’09. He has some speed but was caught seven times in 21 attempts. Watkins performs better against right-handed pitchers than southpaws: .831 vs .624 OPS.

10. John Gaub, LHP, Triple-A
DOB: April 1985 Bats: R Throws: L
Signed: 2006 21st round – University of Minnesota
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-95 mph fastball, slider

The organization may have regretted trading veteran infielder Mark DeRosa to the Indians, but it wasn’t all bad. The club received back three interesting arms in the deal. Gaub is the closest to having a key impact at the MLB level. The left-handed reliever had a dominating season in the minors, even with below-average control (5.34 BB/9 in double-A). At that level, he also allowed just 19 hits in 28.2 innings of work, while also posting a strikeout rate of 12.56 K/9. Moved up to triple-A, Gaub allowed 17 hits in 31.1 innings with a strikeout rate of 11.49 K/9. His control improved a smidgen to 4.60 BB/9. His stuff – especially his fastball velocity – has improved each of the past three seasons. Impressively, he’s equally as effective against left-handed and right-handed hitters (.167 average/12.57 K/9 vs lefties and .175/11.45 vs righties).

Up Next: The Minnesota Twins

General Manager: Jim Hendry
Farm Director: Oneri Fleita
Scouting Director: Tim Wilken

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-draft signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Brett Jackson, OF, U of California
2. D.J. LeMahieu, 2B, Louisiana State
3. Austin Kirk, LHP, Oklahoma HS
6x – Brooks Raley, LHP, Texas A&M

Jackson was a bit of a surprise pick where the Cubs selected him, but the early results have been promising. The outfielder flew through three levels in his debut and ended the year in low-A ball where he hit .295/.382/.545 in 112 at-bats. If Jackson continues to hit with power (.250 ISO) and speed (11 steals in 12 attempts, 30 runs scored in 26 games), the organization could have a real steal here. However, his walk rate did diminish with each promotion, and his strikeout rate was quite high (28.6% in low-A). Still, you can’t sneeze at a .436 wOBA.

The shortstop had a solid debut in low-A ball. He hit .316/.371/.368, thanks to a solid .369 BABIP. LeMathieu also kept his strikeouts in check at 14.5% and his walk rate was a reasonable 7.3%. On the down side, he showed little power (.053 ISO) and he didn’t run much, either (two steals in four tries). Despite the lack of power, he managed to drive in 30 runs in just 38 games.

The first high-schooler taken, Kirk pitched just 13.2 innings, but he got a taste of both rookie and short-season ball. The young southpaw showed some rough spots, especially with his command and control, which should not be unexpected in young pitchers. A college left-hander, Raley also pitched just a few innings after being signed to an over-draft deal. He should open 2010 in low-A ball.

2008 1st Round: Andrew Cashner, RHP, Texas Christian
1S. Ryan Flaherty, SS, Vanderbilt
2. Aaron Shafer, RHP, Wichita State
3. Chris Carpenter, RHP, Kent State
4x – Matt Cerda, SS, California HS
21x – Logan Watkins, SS, Kansas HS

The organization added some real depth with this draft and first-rounder Cashner jumped to the top of the club’s Top 10 prospects list after showing he can certainly stick in the starting rotation. He reached double-A in his first full pro season. Flaherty also joins Cashner on that list (due up on the site tomorrow) and he could be the second baseman (or even third baseman) of the future with Starlin Castro earmarked for shortstop. Carpenter is another promising pick from the draft. The right-hander has a big arm, but he has also had some pretty serious injuries so the catchphrase to be used here is “cautiously optimistic.”

Second-round pick Shafer has a nice pitcher’s frame, but he’s been slower to develop and spent all of ’09 in low-A ball. He displayed good control (2.40 BB/9) but posted a strikeout rate of just 6.27 and allowed too many hits: 122 in 116.1 innings, despite a modest BABIP at .304. He needs to miss more bats, or Shafer is headed to the bullpen. Cerda had a promising debut in low-A ball, but he appeared in just seven games in ’09 thanks to injuries. If he can get back on the field, the catcher shows a keen eye at the plate for his age.

Just 20, Watkins has hit .326 in his short career, spanning two half seasons (one in rookie ball, one in short-season ball). The middle infielder enjoyed his time at the plate in ’09 and hit .326/.389/.391 in 279 at-bats. He needs to work on his base running a bit after getting caught seven times in 21 attempts. Watkins could also stand to be more patient at the plate after posting a walk rate of just 8.8%. He has little-to-no-power after posting an ISO of .065.

Right-hander Jay Jackson was a steal in the ninth round.

2007 1st Round: Josh Vitters, 3B, California HS
1S. Josh Donaldson, C, Auburn (Traded to OAK)
2. None
3. Tony Thomas, 2B, Florida State
12x – Ryan Acosta, RHP/SS, Florida HS
14x – James Russell, LHP, Texas

Despite some clear rough spots in his game, Vitters is still one of the top prospects in the system. Donaldson also showed some potential before he was flipped in the ’08 Rich Harden trade with the Oakland Athletics. Thomas, an offensive-minded second baseman, has seen his offensive numbers slip as he ascends through the system. His power has also diminished, as has his base running skills and he was successful in just 50% of his 26 attempts in ’09 at double-A.

Acosta was unceremoniously released by the club after the ’08 season. Russell hasn’t really lived up to his over-draft signing, either, but he made it to triple-A in ’09 and has been serving as a swing man. He made 12 starts in ’09 (between double-A and triple-A), as well as 25 relief appearances. Russell has a chance to be a useful arm in the Majors, but he’s not likely to be an impact pitcher.

Infielder Darwin Barney (fourth round) and outfielder Brandon Guyer (fifth round) could also end up being useful players.

2006 1st Round: Tyler Colvin, OF, Clemson
2. None
3. None
5x – Jeff Samardzija, RHP, Notre Dame
11x – Chris Huseby, RHP, Florida HS
14x – Drew Rundle, OF, Oregon HS

Until ’09, Colvin looked like a complete bust. He began this past season in high-A, after spending the previous two seasons in double-A. He did not hit overly well but found himself back in double-A where his bat woke up and he managed a triple-slash line of .300/.334/.524 in 307 at-bats. Colvin still doesn’t like walking, but he’s shown improved patience since the ’07 debacle (3.0% walk rate). His ISO of .225 in ’09 was encouraging but he stole just eight bases, which is disappointing. Colvin got a taste of the Majors in ’09 (six games) but it still looks like he’s a platoon or fourth outfielder.

Samardzija’s rookie eligibility has expired but he has yet to develop into the impact arm that the Cubs had hoped for. He still has a powerful fastball, but he’s been painfully inconsistent, for which the Cubs must take partial blame. The former college football star has shuttled from the starting rotation to the bullpen and back, on multiple occasions. He needs to stick in one role in 2010.

Huseby has been a source of frustration for the organization, as a highly-promising but inconsistent over-draft pick out of high school. Moved to the bullpen full-time in ’09, he flourished with a walk rate of just 1.67 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 12.17 K/9 (7.30 K/BB rate in low-A). He could be a fast-mover in 2010 if those rates keep up. Rundle has yet to show the ability to hit professional pitching, outside of a 53-game stint in short-season ball in ’08.

Blake Parker (16th round) reached triple-A in ’09 and posted solid numbers out of the bullpen. The right-hander is a converted college catcher. He just needs to sharpen his command/control.

Up Next: The Chicago Cubs Top 10 Prospects

General Manager: Mark Shapiro
Farm Director: Ross Atkins
Scouting Director: Brad Grant

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

The Indians system is clearly a cut above (most of) the rest, thanks mainly to solid trades as opposed to key draft choices; of the Top 10 prospects, six came from other organizations. The club also added two of its Top 10 picks via international signings, which has been a strength of the organization over the past few years. If the club can tighten up its drafting (and continue to move away from the college-heavy emphasis), the club will hopefully sustain its minor-league depth for years to come.

1. Carlos Santana, C, Double-A
DOB: April 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela – Dodgers)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

An absolute steal from the Dodgers, Santana currently has a shot at the No. 1 catching gig in Cleveland in 2010 now that both Victor Martinez and Kelly Shoppach have been sent elsewhere within the past six months. However, Santana spent the ’09 season in double-A and has yet to play at the MLB level, so the club might be better off by signing a veteran like Rod Barajas to split the catching chores with Wyatt Toregas and/or Lou Marson. Neither Toregas nor Marson is a threat to Santana long term. The former Dodgers prospect had a nice offensive season in double-A by hitting .290/.413/.530 in 428 at-bats. Santana has consistently shown a good eye at the plate with double-digit walk rates for the past four seasons and it reached 17.4% in ’09 (1.08 BB/K rate, as well). His ISO of .241 shows that he has a lot of power, as well. After driving in 115 runs in ’08, Santana followed that up with 97 in ’09. Because he’s on base so much, he’s also scored 179 runs in the past two seasons, even with his legs starting to show some signs of slowing down thanks to the rigors of the position. Defensively, Santana is a convert to the position (2007) and he’ll likely never win a gold glove, but he threw out a reasonable number of base runners in ’09 at 30%. He should be an all-star with the bat.

2. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Double-A
DOB: October 1988 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – Pitt Community College
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Chisenhall followed up his solid debut season with a nice sophomore effort in high-A. He hit .276/.346/.492 with an ISO of .216 in 388 at-bats. His walk rate was OK at 8.7% and his strikeout rate of 20.6% was reasonable considering his power production. Chisenhall also showed a knack for driving in runs with 79 RBI in 99 games (.965 OSP with men on, .652 with the bases empty). The third baseman also received a late-season promotion to double-A, where he hit .183/.238/.387 in 93 at-bats. Overall on the season, the left-handed hitting Chisenhall batted just .243/.332/.393 against southpaws, so he has some work to do in that area. He should head back to the same level in 2010. Although fellow prospect Wes Hodges is a little further ahead, Chisenhall is the favorite to fill the hot corner for the long term.

3. Nick Hagadone, LHP, High-A
DOB: January 1986 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 supplemental 1st round – University of Washington (Boston)
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 91-94 mph fastball, plus slider, change-up

A former first-round pick of Boston, Hagadone’s career has been slowed by Tommy John surgery in ’08. The southpaw got back on track in ’09 but he was kept on a strict pitch count, which limited his total innings to just 45.0 on the year. The good news: just 26 hits, no homers allowed, and a strikeout rate at about 11.00 K/9. The bad news: A walk rate that was all over the place. Obviously, the good out-weighs the bad and some control problems are to be expected when young pitchers come back from surgery and long layoffs. If Hagadone can maintain his solid velocity and crazy ground-ball rates (57.8% career), then he should be a stud. The big, unanswered question is: Will he be a No. 2 starter or a late-game reliever?

4. Hector Rondon, RHP, Triple-A
DOB: February 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-93 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

The first of Cleveland’s homegrown Top 10 prospects, Rondon just keeps getting better and better. Although he doesn’t have electric stuff, Rondon is a much more well-rounded pitcher than a lot of 21-year-old hurlers. The right-hander rose out of obscurity in ’07 with an outstanding ’08 season in high-A. He followed that up by pitching in both double-A and triple-A this past season. At the junior level, Rondon allowed just 60 hits in 72.0 innings of work, while posting a 2.51 FIP. He continued to display above-average control with a walk rate of 2.00 and he posted his highest strikeout rate of his career at 9.13 K/9. Upon his promotion to triple-A, Rondon showed similarly-good control but he struggled with the home run ball a little bit and gave up eight in 74.1 innings (0.97 HR/9). His K/BB rate remained solid at 4.92. With 83 hits allowed, he may have thrown strikes to a fault. One thing to watch out for: His ground-ball rate has diminished with each move up the ladder, to a dangerous rate of 33.9% in triple-A.

5. Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Triple-A
DOB: March 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2003 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela – Philadelphia)
MLB ETA: Early-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 1
Repertoire: 89-93 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Despite being 22, it seems like Carrasco has been around awhile, having reached double-A as a 20 year old. Although he has a nice fastball, the right-hander has been an enigma due to his modest results in the minors. As such, it was not a huge surprise to see him dealt to the Indians, with Philly’s patience having run out. In his former organization, Carrasco pitched 114.2 innings in triple-A in ’09 and allowed 118 hits, but showed solid control with a walk rate of 2.98. He had troubles with the long-ball and allowed 14 homers (1.10 HR/9). The Venezuelan threw better after coming over to pitch for Cleveland’s triple-A squad, but he then tanked when given his first taste of big-league action. Carrasco posted a 7.08 FIP and allowed 40 hits in 22.1 innings of work. With a line-drive rate of 27.0%, he wasn’t fooling anyone with his fastball/change-up approach, as both pitches had negative value. If everything clicks, Carrasco has No. 2 starter potential; more likely than not, though, he’ll be a Miguel Batista type of frustrating pitcher.

6. Jason Knapp, RHP, Low-A
DOB: August 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 2nd round – New Jersey HS (Philadelphia)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 91-94 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Knapp has a big arm, but he also comes complete with injury question marks. A shoulder injury derailed his fantastic low-A ball season, but Cleveland thought enough of him to take the DL-ed pitcher in the Cliff Lee trade. The right-hander was in his first full pro season and was pumping in high-90s fastballs early in the season. He posted a strikeout rate of 11.71 K/9 in 85.1 innings for Philadelphia’s low-A team. He showed some problems with the walk, as he had a walk rate of 4.11 BB/9. As with most young fire-ballers, Knapp gets a lot of fly-ball outs, and his ground-ball rate was a measly 35.6%. Once traded, he made just four starts thanks to the shoulder issue. He is expected to be healthy for the beginning of 2010, but shoulders can be a dangerous area. If everything clicks, he has an outside chance of being a No. 1 starter.

7. T.J. House, LHP, Low-A
DOB: September 1989 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 16th round – Mississippi HS
MLB ETA: Early-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Another homegrown talent, House was an over-slot signee during the ’08 draft. The pitcher has a solid repertoire and the advantage of being left-handed. Pitching in low-A ball in ’09, he allowed just 127 hits in 134.1 innings of work. He showed solid command for his experience level at 3.28 BB/9 and his strikeout rate was good too, at 7.30 K/9. His ground-ball rate of 46.3% was respectable, and he kept the homers to a minimum (0.54 HR/9). He’s still a long way from reaching the Majors, but House had an encouraging debut and he could settle into the mid-to-late part of the Indians rotation within a few years.

8. Michael Brantley, OF, Triple-A
DOB: May 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2005 7th round – Florida HS (Milwaukee)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

A personal favorite for a few years now, Brantley does what every plus base runner should do: He gets on base. With double-digit walk rates over the past four seasons, the left-handed hitting outfielder posted a walk rate of 11.4% in triple-A, as well as a BB/k rate of 1.23. Just 22, he’s likely ready for at least a fourth-outfielder role in Cleveland. Overall, he hit .267/.350/.361 in 457 at-bats at triple-A. He was hurt by low .288 BABIP. Brantley has almost no power and posted an ISO rate of .094 in ’09. But that’s OK. His job is to get on base, move up, and score runs. He stole 46 bases in 51 attempts, and could certainly provide a spark to the Indians’ base running attack. Brantley’s less-than-stellar defense, as well as his .645 OPS vs southpaws, drag down his overall value.

9. Alexander Perez, RHP, High-A
DOB: July 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent
MLB ETA: late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Like Rondon and Jeanmar Gomez, Perez popped out of nowhere to become a solid pitching prospect. The right-hander had a solid ’09 season and split the year between low-A and high-A. At the lower level, Perez allowed just 69 hits in 83.0 innings of work. He showed good control with a walk rate of 2.60 BB/9 and he also missed some bats with a strikeout rate of 8.24 K/9. He did give up a few too many homers (0.98 HR/9). In high-A, Perez made eight appearances and allowed 32 hits in 31.1 innings. Both his walk and strikeout rates were similar to his low-A levels, but his BABIP increased by .076. He allowed just one homer at the senior level and showed all-around solid ground-ball numbers in ’09 at 48.9%.

10. Scott Barnes, LHP, Double-A
DOB: September 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 8th round – St. John’s University
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 87-91 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Barnes is probably higher on this list than on most Indians Top 10 prospect charts, but he’s a solid left-handed pitcher with average stuff. Obtained from the Giants organization, he slipped a bit after moving up to double-A with Cleveland. Barnes had trouble locating his pitches and gave up seven homers in just 31.2 innings (1.99 HR/9). Even so, he still showed OK control with a walk rate below 3.98 BB/9 and a solid strikeout rate at 8.24 K/9, as he’s helped by the deception in his throwing motion. In high-A for San Francisco, Barnes – who is just 22 – allowed 82 hits in 98.0 innings and posted a strikeout rate of 9.09 K/9. Prior to the trade, Barnes’ ground-ball rate was about already modest at 42% and it was cut almost in half after the trade. He’ll get another shot at double-A in 2010; I’m confident he’ll make the necessary adjustments to succeed.

Up Next: The Chicago Cubs

General Manager: Mark Shapiro
Farm Director: Ross Atkins
Scouting Director: Brad Grant

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-draft signees ($200,000+ signing bonus)

2009 1st Round: Alex White, RHP, North Carolina
2. Jason Kipnis, OF, Arizona State
3. Joe Gardner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara

The key to this draft for Cleveland was being able to land White with the 15th overall pick. The former University of North Carolina hurler is expected to move quickly. He also represents the end of the line for Cleveland’s uninspired (early round) college pitching selections. In other words, the club finally used its first round draft pick on a college pitcher with the ceiling of a No. 1 or 2 starter. Third round selection Joe Gardner did not appear in a pro game in ’09.

Kipnis had a solid debut in short-season ball by hitting .306/.388/.459 in 111 at-bats. After stealing 20+ bases in each of his past two college seasons, the outfielder nabbed just three in six attempts in pro ball. He did show some pop in his bat with an ISO of .153, but he’s probably more of a gap hitter. If he can improve his base running, Kipnis could be a valuable player after showing an aptitude for getting on base, with a walk rate of 11.9%.

2008 1st Round: Lonnie Chisenhall, IF, North Carolina CC
2. Trey Haley, RHP, Texas HS
3. Cord Phelps, 2B, Stanford
5x – Zach Putnam, RHP, Michigan
7x – Tim Fedroff, OF, North Carolina
16x – T.J. House, LHP, Mississippi HS
22x – Bryce Stowell, RHP, UC Irvine
26x – Moises Montero, C, Florida JC

The club spent some money in ’08. First rounder Chisenhall has shown a solid bat and there has been nothing said to suggest that the make-up issues (which caused some teams to pass on him in the draft) have resurfaced. This past season, Chisenhall hit 22 homers between high-A and double-A.

Second-rounder Haley has shown zero ability to find the strike zone and posted a 7.53 BB/9 rate in 77.2 low-A innings in ’09. Phelps had an OK year in high-A, with the best part of his offensive contribution being the 93 walks that he took, good for a 16.3% walk rate. He hit just .261, though, with a .102 ISO. He was also caught 14 times in 31 stolen base attempts.

Putnam had a nice first full season in pro ball and reached double-A. He made five starts in high-A and posted a 2.45 FIP with a walk rate of 1.88 BB/9. He then moved to the bullpen in double-A and posted a 2.65 FIP in 56.2 innings. Putnam posted a walk rate of 2.86 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.05 K/9. He could see the Majors some time in 2010, if needed. Fedroff was another over-slot signee who had a nice year. Spending the season in high-A, the outfielder hit .278/.383/.381 in 278 at-bats. The left-handed hitter showed a patient approach at the plate with a walk rate of 14.5%, but the struck out at a rate of 25.1%, despite showing limited power (.103 ISO). He could end up as a tweener.

Stowell split time between the bullpen and starting rotation in ’09 while playing in high-A. He showed that he can miss some bats (9.15 K/9) but he also had trouble finding the strike zone and posted a walk rate of 5.02 BB/9. He’s probably better suited to the bullpen unless he can clean up his control. Still just 20, Montero’s bat has been MIA since going pro. This past season in rookie ball, the catcher hit just .235/.271/.328 in 119 at-bats but he continues to show a great arm behind the dish by nabbing 42% of base stealers in ’09.

House was a great pick. He did not make his debut until ’09 and he jumped right to low-A ball where he allowed 127 hits in 134.1 innings while posting a 3.51 FIP. Eric Berger (8th round), a left-hander out of the University of Arizona, took a huge step forward in ’08 and reached double-A, where he allowed 32 hits in 33.2 innings.

2007 1st Round: Beau Mills, 1B, Lewis-Clark State
2. None
3. None
x- Chris Jones, LHP, Florida HS

This was definitely a “Meh” draft for the Indians. Mills continues to exhibit raw power, but his ISO slipped to just .149 in ’09 at double-A. He likely won’t hit for average in the Majors and his walk rate dipped to 5.7%. This all suggests he could wind up as a quad-A player, unless he shows some improvement in 2010. The club surrendered its second- and third-round picks thanks to its free agent activity. The money saved in those rounds was used to entice Jones to forgo college. The left-hander, though, has had modest pro results.

Fourth rounder T.J. McFarland, a left-handed prep pitcher, was a nice signing. He just needs to miss a few more bats to really climb the depth chart, but he’s only 20 years old and spent the season in low-A ball. Joey Maholic (32nd round) and Josh Judy (34th round) have both shown promise, regardless of what rounds they were drafted in. Maholic had health issues in ’09, but Judy reached double-A and performed well in the Arizona Fall League. He could be a useful pitcher, especially if he keeps his ground-ball rate up.

2006 1st Round: David Huff, LHP, UCLA (supplemental 1st)
2. Steven Wright, RHP, Hawaii
2. Josh Rodriguez, 2B, Rice
2. Wes Hodges, 3B, Georgia Tech
2S. Matt McBride, C, Lehigh
3. Adam Davis, 2B, Florida
x- Ryan Morris, LHP, North Carolina HS
x- Ryan Miller, LHP, Texas JC

With six picks in the first three rounds – and another two over-slot signings – the ’06 drafted looked like it might infuse a lot of talent into the system. However, that draft class is looking more like a train wreck for the organization with most of the players under-performing. Huff has reached the Majors and made 23 starts, but he looks like a No. 4 or 5 starter after posting a strikeout rate of 4.56 and a FIP of 4.69. Only his slider was a reliable pitch for him in ’09, with his fastball being far below average, in terms of value.

Wright’s career may have been resurrected with a move to the bullpen in double-A. Rodriguez will likely top out as a Major League utility player, while Davis’ career stalled in high-A ball. Neither Morris nor Miller has shown as much as hoped after signing above-slot deals.

Hodges looked like he could be the third baseman of the future for the club, but he had an off-year in triple-A while struggling with injuries. McBride could end up as a useful bench player, perhaps in the Jake Fox mold. Pitchers Chris Archer (5th round) and John Gaub (21st) were sent to Chicago in the Mark DeRosa trade.

Up Next: The Cleveland Indians Top 10 Prospects

General Manager: Walt Jocketty
Farm Director: Terry Reynolds
Scouting Director: Chris Buckley

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

The organization’s strength is certainly on the offensive side of things. However, the club addressed the lack of pitching depth by focusing on the area early on during the 2009 draft. Five of its first seven picks were pitchers; four out of those five were college arms, who will hopefully ascend through the system quickly to provide depth in the upper minors, as well as the Majors.

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:

1. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Double-A
DOB: April 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – University of Miami
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

A 2008 first rounder, Alonso has appeared in just 90 regular season pro games after signing late in ’08 and then missing time due to injury in ’09. Even so, the first baseman has risen to double-A, where he hit .295/.372/.457 in 105 at-bats. Prior to that, he hit .303/.382/.497 in 175 high-A at-bats. Alonso has shown a solid eye throughout his career, and his walk rate was 11.8% in double-A. He’s considered a threat to hit .300 at the MLB level, but it may come at the expense of some power. Alonso posted a .162 ISO in double-A but he hit just two homers in 29 games (a total of nine on the year). On the plus side, he doesn’t strike out much, either, and whiffed at a rate of 14.3%. To be a true, everyday threat, Alonso is going to have to improve against southpaws after hitting just .222/.329/.317, albeit in a small sample size with a .260 BABIP. It be nice to see him get through 2010 without suffering a significant injury.

2. Todd Frazier, OF, Double-A
DOB: February 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 supplemental first round – Rutgers University
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Where’s Frazier? Many fans may be asking that very question, as the prospect has played almost every position in the field over the span of his short, three-year pro career. In ’09, the 23 year old spent time in left field (79 games), second base (37), first base (15), and third base (four). He spent much of his early career at shortstop, and does not project to be much more than average at any position. He could end up with a Chone Figgins or Tony Phillips type of career, where he plays everyday and simply moves around each season based on team need at the time. Offensively, he had a solid year in double-A, where he hit .290/.350/.481 in 451 at-bats. He posted a .191 ISO but had some trouble on the base paths and was caught stealing eight times in 15 attempts. He earned a late-season promotion to triple-A, where he posted an .839 OPS in 16 games.

3. Chris Heisey, OF, Triple-A
DOB: December 1984 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 17th round – Messiah College
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

Heisey’s popularity continues to rise, but he may be in danger of falling into the over-hyped category now (says someone listing him as the third overall prospect in the system). However, Heisey – who projects to be a corner outfielder – has yet to post consistent impact power numbers in the minors. With that said, 2009 was a nice start and it will be interesting to see if he can repeat his 20+ homer season. The soon-to-be 25-year-old outfielder is not going to knock Drew Stubbs out of center, or Jay Bruce out of right, so that leaves left field (which could end up being patrolled by Joey Votto, once Alonso is ready). Heisey does the majority of his damage against left-handed pitching, with an OPS of .929, compared to .801 against right-handers. In truth, Heisey’s ceiling may be that of a platoon outfielder, who may also provide a few average-to-above-average MLB seasons.

4. Travis Wood, LHP, Triple-A
DOB: February 1987 Bats: R Throws: L
Signed: 2005 2nd round – Arkansas high school
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 87-91 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up, cutter

The 22-year-old Wood rebounded after a horrible half-season in double-A in ’08. He posted an ugly 7.09 ERA (5.43 FIP) in 80.0 innings. Challenged to improve at the same level in ’09, the left-hander responded with a league-leading 1.21 ERA (2.75 FIP) in 119.0 innings He allowed just 78 hits and posted a walk rate of 2.80. Move up to triple-A, Wood allowed 43 hits in 48.2 innings and posted a walk rate of 2.96 BB/9. His strikeout rate dropped from 7.79 K/9 in double-A to 5.92 in triple-A. He did a nice job of keeping the ball in the park by allowing just six homers all season. Although he doesn’t have a blazing fastball, Wood should settle in nicely as a No. 3 or 4 starter in the National League.

5. Zack Cozart, SS, Double-A
DOB: August 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 2nd round – University of Mississippi
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Cozart’s batting average and slugging percentage both dropped in ’09, but his OPS did not fall too far (.787 to .758), thanks to a 7.0% increase in walk rate. He also broke double-digit steals for the first time in his career with 10 in 12 attempts. The infielder should – at the very least – develop into a MLB utility player, but he could also see some time as a regular middle infielder. The right-handed hitter batted .262/.360/.398 on the season in double-A. Last season he showed some power with an ISO of .177, but that dipped to .136 in ’09. Cozart needs to have more success against right-handed pitchers after hitting just .243/.336/.384 against them. He also had a poor second half of the year despite hitting almost .300 in the first half. The former Mississippi grad should begin 2010 in triple-A.

6. Juan Francisco, 3B, Majors
DOB: June 1987 Bats: B Throws: R
Signed: 2004 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

After beginning the year in double-A, Francisco reached the Majors for the first time at the end of the season. The third baseman hit .281/.317/.501 in 437 double-A at-bats. He posted a .220 ISO in double-A and slammed a total of 28 homers on the year. He hit .359 in a 22-game stint in triple-A, before hitting .429 in 14 big-league games. However, Francisco took just 27 walks on the entire season, and has a walk rate of 4.3% in the minors, which was (sadly) a career high. With that lack of patience, as well as a strikeout rate of +22.0%, it will be difficult for Francisco to hit for average in the Majors… even with a high BABIP. He’s not a star glove man at third, but he’s an improvement over former third baseman Edwin Encarnacion. Scott Rolen will likely keep the position warm for one more season until Francisco is fully ready.

7. Matt Maloney, LHP, Majors
DOB: January 1984 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2005 3rd round – University of Mississippi (Philadelphia)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 87-91 mph fastball, slider, plus change-up

Maloney was acquired from the Phillies during the ’07 season and he’s had his ups and downs since joining the system, which is not surprising for a young pitcher that relies on control and changing speeds to be successful. The left-hander finally made his MLB debut in ’09 after a solid triple-A campaign where he allowed 143 hits in 143.0 innings, while also posting a walk rate of just 1.51 BB/9. He also struck out his fair share batters with a strikeout rate of 7.87 K/9. At the MLB level, Maloney struggled with a 5.41 FIP, but his walk rate remained solid at 1.77 BB/9; he may have actually been in the strike zone a bit too much (at least over the heart of the plate). He’ll need to improve the 34.4% ground-ball rate if he’s going to stick in the rotation, especially with a fastball that averages out at 87 mph.

8. Yorman Rodriguez, OF, Rookie
DOB: August 1992 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Mid-2014 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Rodriguez spent his first season in North America playing at two rookie ball levels and he did not turn 17 until mid-August. The right-handed hitting outfielder struggled in his first taste of pro ball and posted a strikeout rate of about 30.0% in 265 at-bats. Rodriguez showed flashes of both power and speed, but the base running skill is a little more advanced at this point and he nabbed 10 bases in 12 attempts. On the plus side, Rodriguez was showing improvements as the season progressed. He’ll likely repeat rookie ball in 2010.

9. Neftali Soto, 3B, High-A
DOB: February 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 3rd round – Puerto Rico high school
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

It was a bit of an off-year for Soto, but he’s still just 20 years old and he spent the year as one of the youngest players in high-A ball. The third baseman hit .248/.282/.362 in 505 at-bats and it’s clear that he needs to show some patience at the plate after posting a walk rate of 4.4%. His power dropped from an ISO of .174 in low-A ball in ’08 to .115 in ’09, but his strikeout rate remained respectable at 18.8%. After hitting well in ’07 and ’08 despite holes in his game, the ’09 struggles may have been humbling for Soto, who may now be more willing to make some adjustments to his approach.

8. Devin Mesoraco, C, High-A
DOB: June 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – Pennsylvania HS
MLB ETA: mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A resident of Punxsotawney, Mesoraco’s offense has taken after Phil, the famous ground hog, by disappearing at the first sign of spring. The catcher has been under a spotlight because of his draft status, but his offense has not been quite as terrible as it might seem on the surface after he hit .228/.311/.381 in 312 high-A at-bats. At just 21, he’s still young for the level and he did see his walk rate increase by 4%. He also saw his ISO increase over the past three seasons from .051 to .137 to .154. The BABIP of .278 definitely hurt his batting average. On the downside, his strikeout rate has risen from 19.0 to 20.9 to 24.4%. In his first two pro seasons, Mesoraco hit right-handed pitchers well, but his numbers dropped to .222/.294/.374 (.270 BABIP) in ’09. Defensively, his throwing improved significantly over ’08: from 17% to 30%. He has work to do, but don’t give up on Mesoraco just yet.

Up Next: The Cleveland Indians

General Manager: Walt Jocketty
Farm Director: Terry Reynolds
Scouting Director: Chris Buckley

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-draft signees ($200,000+ signing bonus)

2009 1st Round: Mike Leake, RHP, Arizona State
1S. Brad Boxberger, RHP, Southern California
2. Billy Hamilton, SS, Mississippi HS
3. Donnie Joseph, LHP, Houston
5x- Daniel Tuttle, RHP, North Carolina HS
10x- Tucker Barnhart, C, Indiana HS
37x- Dayne Read, OF, Florida JC

The ’09 draft infused some talent into the Reds system, as a number of the players listed above have shown enough to be considered amongst the organization’s top prospects. Leake did not appear in a game during the regular season, but he made six appearances (five starts) in the Arizona Fall League and had nice results. He was a little too hittable with 20 base-knocks allowed in 19.2 innings, but he showed solid control with just three walks. He also struck out 15 batters and showed a nice ground-ball rate. In a small-sample size, Leake struggled a bit more against left-handed batters, than those who swing from the right side, by allowing 12 hits in 9.2 innings of work. However, he induced more than twice the number of ground balls off the bats of lefties than off righties, so there could have been some bad luck involved.

Boxberger also appeared in the AFL, but with less successful results. The right-hander allowed a .333 batting average, along with seven walks in 12.2 innings of work. Two balls also left the yard against him. Right-handed batters hit .360 against him in limited at-bats. Hamilton actually appeared in some regular season games… 42 to be exact. He struggled with his bat and hit just .209/.257/.282 in 163 at-bats. He showed some impatience at the plate with a walk rate of 6.3% and Hamilton struck out far too much (28.8%) for someone that posted a .074 ISO. On the positive side, he showed good speed with 14 steals in 17 attempts.

Joseph had a very nice debut in both rookie ball (2.34 FIP) and low-A ball (1.80 FIP). Working out of the bullpen in low-A, the southpaw posted a walk rate of 4.35 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 13.50 K/9. Overall, he allowed just 19 hits in 32.1 innings. Joseph did not allow a home run. Tuttle had excellent results for a prep player receiving his first taste of pro ball. In rookie ball, the right-hander posted a 2.86 FIP during 32.1 innings of work. He allowed 32 hits and kept the walks to a minimum with a rate of 2.78 BB/9. His strikeout rate was solid at 8.35 K/9 and he has an outside shot of opening 2010 in low-A ball.

Barnhart appeared in just 14 games after signing and posted a .541 OPS in rookie ball. The switch-hitter did show some patience with a walk rate of 11.1% but he was hurt by a .256 BABIP and a small sample size. Read has yet to play a pro game. Outfielder Josh Fellhauer (7th round) also had a nice debut in low-A ball despite a .303 BABIP.

2008 1st Round: Yonder Alonso, 1B, U of Miami
2. None
3. Zach Stewart, RHP, Texas (Traded to TOR)
11x – Andrew Means, OF, Indiana
30x – Juan Carlos Sulbaran, RHP, Florida HS
35x – Matt Fairel, LHP, Florida State

Alonso was a solid No. 1 pick, although he had a modest ’09 season… mainly due to injuries. He’s in the discussion for the Reds’ top prospect. The club forfeited its second-round pick due after dabbling in the free agent market, but it got excellent value in the third round with Stewart. The right-hander was flipped to Toronto in the puzzling Scott Rolen trade. Fairel had a solid first pro season in ’09 and he ended the year by making eight starts in high-A ball where he posted a 3.26 FIP. The club has yet to see much return on its investment in Means, but Sulbaran has shown flashes of brilliance. The right-hander posted a strikeout rate of 9.71 in low-A ball, but he posted a 5.88 FIP and struggled with the long-ball (1.85 HR/9).

2007 1st Round: Devin Mesoraco, C, Pennsylvania HS
1S. Todd Frazier, 3B/OF, Rutgers
1S. Kyle Lotzkar, RHP, B.C. HS
2. Zack Cozart, SS, Mississippi
3. Scott Carroll, RHP, Missouri State
3. Neftali Soto, 3B, Puerto Rico HS

The club received a number of compensatory picks in ’07 and it had a solid haul overall. However, the first pick of the draft for the Reds has not had much success, with Mesoraco’s bat having gone backwards since signing. In ’09, the backstop hit just .228/.311/.381 in 312 high-A at-bats. He’s suffered from a chronically-low BABIP (which tends to plague slow-footed catchers) but he did show a 4% improvement (10.1%) in his walk rate over ’08. He also saw his ISO increase over the past three seasons to .154. Mesoraco is still just 21. He’s bounced all over the field, but Frazier is on the cusp of making the Majors and he’s at the top of the Reds prospect list. Lotzkar has shown a lot of potential with a nice fastball, but he’s had those pesky injury problems that tend to haunt Canadian pitchers.

Cozart is another farmhand that has struggled with low BABIPs in his career, despite better speed, but he had a nice year in double-A and saw his walk rate increase almost 7% over ’08 to 12.0%. He also stole double-digit bases for the first time with 10 in 12 attempts. Carroll’s career was slowed by a suspension and he came back to post a strikeout rate of just 3.12 K/9 in 40.1 high-A ball innings. He also received a two-game trial in double-A that did not go well. Soto’s ’09 season was a bit of a step back but he is still loaded with potential and is just 20 years old. A .286 BABIP did him no favors; his ISO also dropped off to .114 and he has yet to show a willingness to take a walk.

Brandon Waring was an astute pick in the seventh round, but the corner infielder was packaged to Baltimore in the Ramon Hernandez trade.

2006 1st Round: Drew Stubbs, OF, Texas
2. Sean Watson, RHP, Tennessee
3. Chris Valaika, SS, UC Santa Barbara
16x – Jamie Arneson, LHP, California CC

Stubbs took a little while to turn his raw athleticism into baseball talent, but he graduated to the big leagues in ’09 and should not return to the minors unless he struggles mightily with the strikeouts. Watson has been a disappointing pick in the second round with inconsistent performances, as well as control and weight problems. Valaika’s progression was halted this season with a bleak performance in triple-A. Arneson struggled to find the plate in his first three pro seasons and he did not play in ’09.

Josh Roenicke (10th round) was a great fifth-year senior choice but he was sent to Toronto along with Stewart in the Rolen deal. Outfielder Chris Heisey (17th round) was another key choice in this draft and has made himself into a solid prospect.

Up Next: The Cincinnati Reds Top 10 Prospects

General Manager: Kenny Williams
Farm Director: Buddy Bell
Scouting Director: Doug Laumann

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

The organization has some interesting names in the Top 10 but there are few “sure bets” and the depth in the system is seriously lacking. The club is going to have to replenish significantly before it can start shedding prospects in trades, once again. The ’09 draft did an OK, but not great, job of bringing in some fresh blood.

1. Tyler Flowers, C, Triple-A
DOB: January 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 33rd round – Chipola JC (Atlanta Braves)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

Flowers should be ready to take over the full-time catching chores right around the time that veteran incumbent A.J. Pierzynski’s contract runs out after 2010. The right-handed catching prospect has impressive power (.246 ISO in double-A) and he hasn’t hit below .279 in any season since 2006. Flowers began the year in double-A in ’09 and hit .302/.445/.548 in 248 at-bats, before moving up to triple-A where he hit .286/.364/.438 in 105 at-bats. He finished up his fine season with three hits in 16 big-league at-bats. The 23-year-old Flowers does have some warts, including a high strikeout rate, as well as below-average defense. He threw out 34% of base stealers in double-A, but that number slipped to 18% in triple-A. His overall offensive potential – especially the power – should off-set any negatives. Flowers creamed left-handed pitching in the minors in ’09 with a 1.119 OPS.

2. Daniel Hudson, RHP, Majors
DOB: March 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 5th round – Old Dominion University
MLB ETA: Early-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Hudson took one of the biggest steps forward of any prospect in the minors in ’09 and spent time at five different levels. He even spent some time in Chicago at the end of the year, but allowed 16 hits in 18.2 innings. Hudson also struggled with the long ball and gave up three homers (1.45 HR/9). He had issues with allowing too many fly balls in double-A, triple-A and the Majors (29.8 GB%), but he may have been tired, which could have led to elevated pitches. Overall, he allowed 108 hits in 151.7 minor-league innings and posted a strikeout rate of 9.91 K/9. He also showed solid control with a walk rate of 2.02. Hudson, a right-hander, fared well against southpaws, with an average-allowed of just .160 compared to righties at .237. He has a chance to spend all of 2010 in the White Sox rotation despite beginning ’09 in low-A ball.

3. Jordan Danks, OF, Double-A
DOB: August 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 7th round – University of Texas
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The brother of White Sox starter John Danks, this athletic outfielder has never been able to live up to the promise he showed at Texas (He would have been a first rounder as a prep grad, but he asked teams not to draft him because he wanted to go to college). Even so, Danks still has potential thanks to good defense and raw power potential that he has yet to tap into. The outfielder started off ’09 quite well with a line of .322/.409/.525 in 118 at-bats. He was helped significantly, though, by a .422 BABIP. Moved up to double-A, Danks struggled and hit just .243/.337/.356 in 284 at-bats (.307 BABIP). For a guy who posted a .113 ISO in double-A, the left-handed hitter struck out too much: 25.7%. On the plus side, he’s fared OK against southpaws to this point in his pro career (.737 OPS in ’09).

4. Brent Morel, 3B, High-A
DOB: April 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Cal Poly
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The organization has some depth at third base, what with Dayan Viciedo, C.J. Retherford, and Morel all able to play the position to varying degrees. Morel had a solid offensive season in high-A in ’09 and hit .281/.335/.453 with a .173 ISO in 481 at-bats. His power has increased each season he’s played professionally, but his OPS has diminished each season during that time frame. Although he’s not a speed burner, Morel added 25 steals in ’09 but was caught nine times. In his previous two seasons, Morel was 12 for 14, combined. The third base prospect does not strike out much (just 13.7% in ’09) but he also does not walk a ton (7.3%). If his power can continue to develop without sacrificing too much in his other categories, Morel could be the future at the hot corner.

5. Dayan Viciedo, 3B, Double-A
DOB: March 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 non-drafted international free agent (Cuba)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

It was an up-and-down first season in pro ball for the 20(?)-year-old Cuban defectee. Viciedo did not display anywhere near his reported power potential (.111 ISO) and he was badly out of shape. He also posted a walk rate of just 4.4%. To give him credit, he did keep his strikeout rate below 20% at 17.7%. Viciedo should probably really head back to double-A in 2010 to work on discovering his power and showing more patience (not mention better conditioning). His .296 OPS against right-handed pitching is not good, and the portly Viciedo should try and get a few more balls in the air (55.2 GB%). The Sox reportedly still consider him the third-baseman-of-the-future, but the ’09 season was certainly a step back in that regard. If he is just 20 years old, though, Viciedo has time on his side.

6. C.J. Retherford, 3B/2B, Double-A
DOB: August 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted free agent – Arizona State University
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

With Dayan Viciedo and Brent Morel around him, Retherford was shifted to second base in ’09, after spending the previous two seasons at the hot corner. An un-drafted collegian, the 24-year-old prospect has battled his way up the organizational ladder by hitting more than .295 each season. If he can stick at second base, then his power potential increases from average-to-below-average at third to above-average at second base. Although he hit just 10 homers at double-A, Retherford did manage 46 doubles (.176 ISO). His overall line was .297/.340/.473, which was hurt to a degree by his 5.9% walk rate. He did keep the strikeout rate down, as well, at 14.6%. Worst-case scenario, Retherford should have a nice career as a bench/utility player.

7. Clevelan Santeliz, RHP, Double-A
DOB: September 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 89-95 mph fastball, slider, change-up

His control may not have been much better in ’09 (5.59 BB/9) but something clicked for Santeliz, who saw his FIP drop from around 5.50 in ’08 to 3.73. With his control issues, the right-hander is going to struggle in the Majors, but the club will look for another step forward in 2010. He did keep his hits down to just 43 in 56.1 innings and his strikeout rate was 8.31 K/9. Despite modest ground-ball rates (41%), Santeliz allowed just two homers all season. Right-handed batters hit .207 against him, and his walk rate was just 3.93. Obviously, the problem is with left-handers who posted a 7.20 BB/9 rate against him, and also had a .256 average. He has closer stuff at times, but control and consistency continues to elude him.

8. John Ely, RHP, Double-A
DOB: May 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 3rd round – University of Miami (Ohio)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, curveball, plus change-up

The opposite of Santeliz, Ely is a pitcher who utilizes solid command/control to help compensate for a below-average heater. The right-hander has the potential to be a solid back-of-the-rotation starter, although he’d be better off starting in the National League. In the AL, his future may be in the bullpen. Ely’s win-loss record was impressive in ’09 at 14-2, but we know that says little-to-nothing about his value as a prospect. He did keep the hits down with 140 allowed in 156.1 innings, but his BABIP of .293 certainly helped. Ely’s walk rate hit a career high in ’09 at double-A but it was just 2.88 BB/9. Unfortunately, his strikeout rate has diminished with each promotion in the minors and hit a career-low 7.20 K/9 this past season. After having some homer problems in ’08 (1.11 HR/9), he solved those in ’09 (0.52 HR/9) thanks to a +50% ground-ball rate. Ely struggled against left-handed hitters by posting a walk rate of 4.52 BB/9 and a .277 average (.341 BABIP). His average-allowed against right-handed batters was .215 (.257 BABIP) and his walk rate was just 1.55 BB/9.

9. Gregory Infante, RHP, High-A
DOB: July 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-95 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

The White Sox organization loves hard-throwers and Infante is another one, although he’s still quite a ways from the Majors, having appeared in just six games above low-A. The right-hander began the year in low-A and allowed 76 hits in 88.1 innings, while posting a strikeout rate of 7.64 K/9. He did a respectable job of keeping the ball in the park at 0.41 HR/9 thanks to an OK ground-ball rate of 45.6%. The prospect did also receive a taste of high-A ball in ’09 and he should head back there in 2010. Like some of the pitchers above him on the list, Infante also struggled against left-handed batters. On the plus side, he has better control (although it’s inconsistent) than some of the other big arms in the system. A starter for now, his future probably lies in the back-end of the bullpen.

10. Santos Rodriguez, LHP, Low-A
DOB: January 1988 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 90-95 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Obtained from Atlanta in the Javier Vazquez trade despite pitching in rookie ball, Rodriguez has impressed the organization with his strong arm from the left side. Unfortunately, his walk rate of 5.67 BB/9 in rookie ball was not something to write home about in ’09. Hitters did struggle to make contact against him with a strikeout rate of 14.00 K/9 and just 18 hits in 27.0 innings of work. Rodriguez also did not allow a home run, despite allowing his fair share of fly balls (something he’ll need to trim down as he climbs the ladder). His line-drive rate of 7.5% was quite impressive. The southpaw handled right-handed batters well in ’09, with a .174 batting-average-allowed. If he can trim his walk rates, Rodriguez has a future as a late-game reliever.

A special thanks to www.Southsidesox.com for their input.

Up Next: The Cincinnati Reds

General Manager: Kenny Williams
Farm Director: Buddy Bell
Scouting Director: Doug Laumann

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-draft signees ($200,000+)

2009 1st Round: Jared Mitchell, OF, Louisiana State
1S. Josh Phegley, C, Indiana
2. Trayce Thompson, OF, California HS
2. David Holmberg, LHP, Florida HS
3. Bryan Morgado, LHP, Tennessee (Did not sign)

Mitchell’s .417 on-base average was impressive in just 34 low-A ball games. However, his line of .296/.417/.435 was aided by a crazy-high .453 BABIP. His walk rate of 16.7% was offset by a nasty strikeout rate at 34.8%, which is obviously going to have to come down. With an ISO of .139, his power is undeveloped at this time, although he could develop into a 15-homer hitter. Despite good speed, Mitchell nabbed just five steals in eight attempts.

With Tyler Flowers already in the upper levels of the system, the club added another offensive-minded backstop in Phegley. The right-handed hitter struggled in his debut and hit just .224/.277/.408 in 196 low-A at-bats. The 21-year-old prospect posted a nice ISO rate at .184 and slugged nine homers in 196 at-bats. However, he managed a walk rate of just 5.3% and his BABIP was very low at .238. Phegley’s going to have to pick it up against right-handed pitching after hitting just .204/.259/.362 (.216 BABIP).

After going the college route with its first two picks, the club then nabbed a couple of interesting high school players: Thompson and Holmberg. An outfielder, Thompson had a bumpy debut but he’s the son of a former NBA player, so he’s loaded with athleticism, as well as a quick bat. Despite that, he’s raw as a baseball player and he hit below .200 and struck out at an alarming rate: 38.1%. Left-handed Holmberg had a solid debut in rookie ball for a teenager. He allowed 40 hits in 40.0 innings, while posting a walk rate of 4.05 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 8.33 K/9. His ground-ball rate has some room for improvement at 44%, and he struggled a bit with the long ball (1.13 HR/9).

The club failed to sign third round pick Morgado, who was a draft-eligible sophomore left-hander at the University of Tennessee. Harold Baines Jr., 21, was nabbed late in the draft but hit just .147/.220/.160 in 75 rookie ball at-bats.

2008 1st Round: Gordon Beckham, IF, Georgia
2. NA
3. Brent Morel, 3B, Cal Poly
7x- Jordan Danks, OF, Texas

Despite lacking a second-round selection, the White Sox had an excellent draft. The acquisition of Beckham makes the draft a winner all on its on, but the club also nabbed a few other interesting prospects. Back to the No. 1 pick for a moment, though… Beckham appeared in 45 minor-league games before being called up in ’09, and he stuck in the Majors for the remainder of the season by hitting .270/.347/.460 in 378 at-bats. He showed good power with a .190 ISO and he kept the strikeouts in check (17.2 K%). Beckham could see his average improve in 2010 if he can better his .294 BABIP. The first-year wOBA of .351 bodes well for the infielder.

Both Morel and Danks have a chance to play roles in Chicago, although they are both very different players. Morel has shown solid statistics throughout his career despite average tools. Danks has displayed outstanding tools, while his numbers have been inconsistent. Fifth-rounder Dan Hudson looks like a steal, after pitching well at five stops during the ’09 season. However, the right-hander may be overrated a little bit now, and he looks like a solid No. 3 starter, with No. 2 starter potential.

Dexter Carter, a 13th-round selection, posted excellent numbers in his debut but was used as part of the loot to acquire veteran right-hander Jake Peavy from San Diego during the 2009 season. The club made a run at signing football legend Howie Long’s son Kyle Long (23rd round), but the left-hander spurned them for Florida State University.

2007 1st Round: Aaron Poreda, LHP, San Francisco
2. Nevin Griffith, RHP, Florida HS
3. John Ely, RHP, Miami (Ohio)

The ’07 draft was not a great one for the club, although Poreda – like Carter above – was used in the Peavy deal. Griffith got back on the mound in ’09 after struggling with injuries in his first two pro seasons. The 20-year-old right-hander allowed 69 hits in 67.2 innings of work in low-A. His strikeout rate was quite low at 4.66 K/9, but his ground-ball rate was very close to 50%. He needs to improve against left-handed batters after they hit .358 against him.

Ely has proven to be a solid pick. He has average stuff, but his control is solid and he posted a walk rate of 2.88 BB/9 at double-A in ’09; it’s never risen above that in his three year pro career. His BABIP of .293 helped him allow just 140 hits in 156.1 innings, and his ground-ball rate has been right at 50% over the past two seasons. He projects as a back-of-the-rotation starter, which is nothing to sneeze at.

2006 1st Round: Kyle McCulloch, RHP, Texas
2. Matt Long, RHP, Miami (Ohio)
3. Justin Edwards, LHP, Florida HS

This was definitely not a draft to remember. Both college starters McCulloch and Long have struggled in professional baseball. Edwards, 22, spent the majority of ’09 in high-A ball and posted a FIP of 4.71, as well as a strikeout rate of 2.86 K/9 in 78.2 innings. Infielder John Shelby (5th round) and right-hander Brian Omogrosso (6th round) could see MLB time.

Up Next: The Chicago White Sox Top 10 Prospects