General Manager: Neal Huntington
Farm Director: Kyle Stark
Scouting Director: Greg Smith

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

The system is getting better and the Top 10 list would look much more impressive if 2009 draft picks were included… Some of those picks that look good now, though, will fall by the wayside during the 2010 season, but you can expect to see names like Tony Sanchez, Zack Von Rosenberg, and Victor Black to be near the top by the end of 2010, unless something catastrophic happens. Looking at the present list, No. 1 pick Alvarez is an impact bat, while Lincoln has the arm to be an impact pitcher, but the numbers have just not been there for him. Alderson could end up being a steal from the Giants organization if he can regain a little zip on his pitches; I’m not ready to get down on him just yet.

1. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, High-A
DOB: February 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – Vanderbilt University
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

The pride of the system, Alvarez overcame a slow start in ’09 to hit extremely well in the second half. He began the year in high-A and hit just .247/.342/.486 in 243 at-bats. Alvarez was then pushed to double-A, where he exploded with a triple-slash line of .333/.419/.590 in 222 at-bats. His ISO was impressive at both levels: .239 and .257. He also showed a good eye with a cumulative walk rate of 13.2%. His strikeout rate was high at 27.8%, but he has the raw power and homer totals to make that a justified statistic. Alvarez, who posted a .444 wOBA in double-A, is a star in the making but be wary of his .407 BABIP at the senior level. He also showed some weakness against southpaws with an OPS of .714, compared to right-handers at 1.028. Defensively, the former No. 1 pick was an adventure at third base, so many are projecting him as a future first baseman, which he has the bat for, but it does lessen his value by a small degree.

2. Brad Lincoln, RHP, Double-A
DOB: May 1985 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2006 1st round – University of Houston
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 90-95 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Lincoln started out the year pretty well with a 2.96 FIP and just 63 hits allowed in 75.0 innings at double-A. His FIP rose to 3.85 after a promotion to triple-A and he allowed 72 hits in 61.1 innings of work. The main culprit in the hit total increase was his BABIP, which rose from .287 to .332. Lincoln has been too hittable over his career – especially given his stuff – but he’s always around the strike zone; he just needs a little better command of his pitches. His control is solid with per-nine walk rates of 2.16 in double-A and 1.47 in triple-A. Lincoln has also been homer-prone in his career and he allowed seven (1.03 HR/9) in triple-A. His ’09 ground-ball rate of 39.5% is not good news; it would be nice to see him work down in the zone more and bump that rate up by about 10%. At worst, he should be a solid No. 3 starter, and he could see a few above-average seasons in terms of pitching results.

3. Jose Tabata, OF, Triple-A
DOB: August 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela – New York Yankees)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

Allegedly just 21 years old, Tabata reached triple-A around the time he earned the right to drink legally in the United States. After a tumultuous beginning to the season off the field, Tabata hit .303/.370/.404 in 228 double-A at-bats. He then moved up to triple-A where he held his own and hit .276/.333/.410 in 134 at-bats. Unfortunately, he continues to be haunted by a couple holes in his game that could keep him from becoming a breakout talent. His walk rate is on the low side and it was just 6.9% in triple-A. His power has yet to develop, and his ISO rate was .101 in double-A and .134 in triple-A, which was down significantly from the number he flashed in his debut with the Pirates system in ’08. Tabata’s thickening lower half has also impacted his speed on the bases (11 steals in 19 attempts) and his range in the outfield.

4. Tim Alderson, RHP, Double-A
DOB: November 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – Arizona HS (San Francisco Giants)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 86-92 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

Just 21, Alderson spent the majority of ’09 in double-A while most players his age were finishing up their junior years of college. The right-hander began the year in the Giants organization and made five starts in high-A ball. He was then bumped up to double-A and allowed 76 hits in 72.2 innings of work. He showed his typically good control with a walk rate of 1.73 BB/9, while his strikeout rate was a little worrisome at 5.70 K/9. Unfortunately, that got worse after the trade, falling to 4.19 in 38.2 double-A innings. His walk rate also rose to 3.03 BB/9 but that was attributed to tiredness. Much has been made about Alderson’s dip in velocity, which peaked in high school. It could still bounce back, and the right-hander could also be sacrificing miles per hour for control/command. Either way, he needs to bump up the strikeout rate if he’s going to be an impact pitcher. It would also be nice to see him add at least 5% to his ground-ball rate to get it up over 50%.

5. Jeff Locke, LHP, High-A
DOB: November 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 2nd round – New Hampshire HS (Atlanta Braves)
MLB ETA: 40-Man Roster: Options:
Repertoire: 89-93 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Acquired this past season from Atlanta (along with Gorkys Hernandez), Locke had a solid introduction into the system with a 3.16 FIP in 81.2 innings. He was too hittable in high-A with 98 hits allowed, but his walk rate improved significantly over his rate with Atlanta (45.2 high-A innings) from 5.12 to 1.98 BB/9. Unfortunately, his strikeout rate also dropped from 8.47 to 6.17 K/9. Formerly a 50+% ground-ball rate pitcher, Locke’s number dropped to 48.6% in ’09. Interestingly, he’s had better numbers against right-handed hitters compared to left-handed batters over the past two seasons. He’ll likely make the jump to double-A in 2010 and will need a little more luck from his BABIP rate after it sat at .350 this past season. Locke has the potential to be a solid No. 3 or 4 starter.

6. Chase D’Arnaud, SS, High-A
DOB: January 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 4th round – Pepperdine University
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

D’Arnaud has come a long way in a short time. The infielder looked like a future MLB utility player when he was drafted, but he’s worked hard to improve his skill set and he reached high-A in ’09 as a 22-year-old. The right-handed hitter batted .291/.394/.427 in 213 low-A at-bats before moving up to high-A where he hit .295/.402/.481 in 210 at-bats. D’Arnaud produced solid walk rates at both levels, right around 12.4%, but his strikeout rate rose 5% to 19.5% upon his promotion. With that, though, his power increased from an ISO of .136 to .186. If the power fluctuation is just a tease, D’Arnaud still has some added value on the base paths after stealing 31 bases in 39 attempts. He won’t ever match former starter Jack Wilson on defense, but D’Arnaud is solid in the field, and he should produce more on offense.

7. Rudy Owens, LHP, Low-A
DOB: December 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 28th round – Arizona HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 86-90 mph fastball, curveball, plus change-up

Owens, a southpaw, has really shown some solid numbers in the minors despite average-at-best velocity on his heater. He’s seen his walk rate drop with each promotion, from 3.27 to 2.02 to 1.34 to 0.77. In ’09, Owens allowed just 71 hits in 100.2 innings of work in low-A ball, while posting a strikeout rate of 8.14 K/9. He jumped to high-A for six starts and was hit a little harder with 29 hits allowed in 23.1 innings. His BABIP jumped from .246 to .372. With a plus change-up, Owens fared well against right-handed hitters in ’09 with a .214 batting-average-allowed. He also had a higher strikeout rate against them compared to lefties (8.60 vs 6.15). On the downside, all of his 12 homers came to right-handed hitters. With his modest stuff, Owens is going to have to get his pitches down in the zone more often; his ground-ball rate of 38.0% is not going to cut it in the Majors.

8. Starling Marte, OF, Low-A
DOB: October 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Marte had a solid first season in North America as a 20-year-old outfielder. In low-A ball, he hit .312/.377/.439 in 221 at-bats. As with many inexperienced Latin players, his walk rate was low at 5.2% and his strikeout rate was high at 24.9%. He did show some signs of raw power potential and posted an ISO of .127. Marte’s game is more speed than power, though, and he stole 24 bases in 31 attempts. Given a brief taste of high-A life, Marte went 2-for-2 with an RBI. He definitely should be watched closely in high-A ball in 2010, but his ’09 numbers were helped by his .405 BABIP.

9. Gorkys Hernandez, OF, High-A
DOB: September 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela – Atlanta Braves)
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

Brought over in a trade from Atlanta, Hernandez had a disappointing time in the Pirates system. He started out the season in double-A with Atlanta, where he hit .316/.361/.387 in 212 at-bats. After the trade to Pittsburgh, he hit just .262/.312/.340 in 344 at-bats at the same level. Hernandez’ BABIP dropped from .424 to .328 after the trade and his wOBA sank to .298. The outfield prospect is going to have to get on base more consistently to take advantage of his speed, because he has little power potential after posting an .076 ISO in ’09. His walk rate of 6.5% needs to improve, and he also needs to tone down his swing after posting a strikeout rate of 22.1% in the Pirates system. Right now, he looks like a fourth outfielder, but he has potential and is just 22 years old.

10. Quinton Miller, RHP, Rookie Ball
DOB: November 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 20th round – New Jersey HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-94 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Squeaking onto the Top 10 list is Miller. The right-hander was a 2008 draftee who did not make his debut until ’09. Despite the layoff, Miller posted respectable results in low-A ball by allowed just 50 hits in 56.1 innings. His walk rate was OK at 3.99 BB/9, but the strikeout rate was a little low at 6.39 K/9. Miller’s ground-ball rate was OK at 42.5%, but he’s going to want to see that rise a bit as he climbs the ladder. He also needs to get more comfortable with left-handed batters as he posted a 6.20 BB/9 rate against them, compared to 2.80 BB/9 against right-handed hitters. His FIP was 4.69 despite a .275 BABIP, so he may need to return to low-A in 2010 to work out a few kinks before moving up to high-A.

Up Next: The Chicago White Sox

General Manager: Neal Huntington
Farm Director: Kyle Stark
Scouting Director: Greg Smith

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-draft signees ($200,000+)

2009 1st Round: Tony Sanchez, C, Boston College
1S. Victor Black, RHP, Dallas Baptist
2. Brooks Pounders, RHP, California HS
3. Evan Chambers, OF, Florida CC
4x- Zach Dodson, LHP, Texas HS
6x- Zack Von Rosenberg, RHP, Louisiana HS
7x- Trent Stevenson, RHP, Arizona HS
8x- Colton Cain, LHP, Texas HS
10x- Joey Schoenfeld, C, California HS
12x- Jeff Inman, RHP, Stanford

No one can criticize the Pirates organization for going cheap in this draft, even with an (arguable) over-draft of Sanchez with the fourth-overall pick. The club spent big money on more than 10 players in the draft. Sanchez did everything he could to make his selection look smart. The solid-defensive catcher hit .308 in four rookie ball games before moving up to low-A, where he hit .316/.415/.561 in 155 at-bats. He then received a four-game trial in high-A ball and he should begin 2010 back at that level. Along the way in ’09, Sanchez showed better power than expected (.245 ISO) and a good eye at the plate with a walk rate of 11.9 BB% in low-A. His BABIP was unusually high for a catcher at .368, so he’s probably not going to be a .300+ hitter, but he has more than enough value elsewhere.

In limited innings, Black showed solid potential with a ground-ball rate right around 50%, as well as a solid fastball that allowed him to post a strikeout rate of 9.48 K/9. His walk rate was a little high at 4.31 BB/9 but you have to like the 2.63 FIP and that fact he allowed just 26 hits and kept the ball in the park. Second rounder Pounders had a solid debut in rookie ball and appears to be a big-bodied, workhorse type. Third rounder Chambers batted just .245 despite a .381 BABIP. His walk rate of 20% in short-season ball was nice to see and he actually had more walks (50) than hits (49). The 39% strikeout rate suggests he may have been too passive at the plate, although I don’t have numbers showing how many of those Ks were looking and how many were swinging. With an ISO of .135, he’s going to have to trim the strikeouts, even if it’s at the risk of losing some on-base average.

Dodson, Von Rosenberg, Cain, Schoenfeld, and Inman did not see enough playing time to comment on at this point, but all players have significant potential. The first four prospects are all raw high school players, while Inman was drafted out of Stanford and could move a little bit quicker. Stevenson appeared the most of the over-slot picks and he allowed 13 hits in 15.0 innings of work in rookie ball. The right-hander struck out eight and walked no one.

2008 1st Round: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
2. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno State (Did not sign)
3. Jordy Mercer, SS, Oklahoma State
4x- Chase D’Arnaud, SS, Pepperdine
6x- Robbie Grossman, OF, Texas HS
20x- Quinton Miller, RHP, New Jersey HS

The club failed to sign second rounder Scheppers, who was re-drafted this past season by Texas and has looked very good. The club did not skip a beat, though, and Alvarez looks like an impact bat despite a slow start to his pro career in ’09. Third rounder Mercer has been hurt by career-low BABIPs, including a .295 rate in ’09, which led to a .255/.314/.400 line. He did show some gap power this past season with 36 doubles and an ISO of .144.

D’Arnaud has passed Mercer on the middle infielder depth chart. The brother of Phillies catching prospect Travis D’Arnaud, Chase has gone from a potential future back-up to a possible big-league starter in two short years. With 35 steals and a walk rate of 14.5%, Grossman had an “interesting” first full season when you couple those stats with an alarming 36.4% strikeout rate. Miller had a modest first full year with a 4.69 FIP and 6.39 K-rate in low-A ball.

2007 1st Round: Daniel Moskos, LHP, Clemson
2. Duke Welker, RHP, Arkansas
3. Brian Friday, SS, Rice

You can thank the ’07 and ’06 drafts for helping to educate the organization on how not to draft and develop players. Moskos was a poor pick right from the get-go. He recovered a bit in ’09 with a 4.41 FIP but his strikeout rate has plummeted in the past few years from 9.24 to 6.36 to 4.65 K/9. Right-handed batters give him a fair amount of grief. Welker’s command and control both deserted him in ’09, while Friday looks like he’s going to top out as a utility player.

2006 1st Round: Brad Lincoln, RHP, Houston
2. Mike Felix, LHP, Troy
3. Shelby Ford, 2B, Oklahoma State
28x- Rudy Owens, LHP, Arizona HS

Lincoln was an OK pick at the time, but he’s been slowed by injuries. He could still end up as a solid player, but his low strikeout totals suggest he won’t be an impact pitcher. Injuries and significant control problems have ruined Felix’s potential, while Ford’s numbers plummeted in ’09, in part due to terrible BABIPs. Owens was a slick pick in the 28th round and is arguably the most talented southpaw in the system. Jim Negrych (6th round) could end up as a solid utility player or platoon infielder. Lonnie Chisenhall, who was later drafted in the first round by Cleveland, would have been a nice value in the 11th round.

Up Next: The Pittsburgh Pirates Top 10 Prospects

General Manager: David Dombrowski
Farm Director: Glenn Ezell
Scouting Director: David Chadd

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

This was a tough organization to rank. There is very little in the system in terms of impact talent, aside from a couple of 2009 amateur draft picks (Jacob Turner, Daniel Fields), but ’09 picks were omitted from consideration for the Top 10 list. Casey Crosby has a chance to be an impact talent, but he’s just in low-A ball. The club has a couple of interesting catching prospects in Alex Avila, and Dusty Ryan, who just missed making the Top 10 list. The system is getting better but it’s a slow process, especially when the big-league club is trying to win now.

1. Casey Crosby, LHP, low-A
DOB: September 1988 Bats: R Throws: L
Signed: 2007 5th round – Illinois HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Crosby is currently sandwiched in between Rick Porcello and Jacob Turner as the best young pitcher in the organization. He needs to keep developing if he’s going to avoid being surpassed by Turner in 2010. Crosby made just three appearances in his debut season in ’08 after being drafted in ’07 without making an appearance thanks to Tommy John surgery. That makes his numbers in ’09 all the more impressive. The walk rate of 4.13 BB/9 can be blamed partially on the long layoff. Beyond that, though, Cosby had few issues, as he posted a 2.80 FIP, 10.06 K/9 rate and allowed just three homers in 104.2 innings (0.26 HR/9). His 50+% ground-ball rate was nice, as was the line-drive rate of just 11.7%. There could be some concern with the huge increase in innings that Crosby pitched in ’09 compared to ’08 (4.2 IP) but he does have a big, strong frame.

2. Ryan Strieby, 1B, double-A
DOB: August 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 4th round – University of Kentucky
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

Injuries derailed his season, but Strieby still showed some improvements in ’09 over his ’08 season, with an excellent .445 wOBA in 86 double-A games. Overall, the first baseman hit .303/.427/.565 with a .262 ISO in 294 at-bats. His power will likely be muted somewhat by playing in Detroit, but his OPS has increased with each level he’s played at and his walk rate jumped from 9.9 to 16.2 BB% in the past year. On the down side, the strikeout rate was a little high, even for a power hitter, at 27.2 K%. Defensively, he saw time at both first base and left field, where his work left something to be desired. Strieby’s bat should be ready for the Majors in 2010, and he could see time at first base and designated hitter.

3. Alex Avila, C, Majors
DOB: January 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 5th round – University of Alabama
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

Avila has shocked just about everyone with his quick development since turning pro in ’08. A fifth-rounder, he arrived in The Show in ’09 and promptly hit .279/.375/.590 in limited duty (61 ABs). He’s shown excellent patience in pro ball, including a walk rate of 13.6 BB% in double-A this past season. His strikeout rate was a little high at 23.4 K%, but he did post an ISO of .185. One knock on Avila is that he needs to improve against southpaws if he’s going to avoid the platoon; he hit just .216/.300/.392 against left-handers at double-A. Even if his batting average stays low in the .240-.260 range, Avila has value due to his patience at the plate and developing, left-handed power. He’s solid defensively and he threw out 44% of base stealers in double-A – but just 27% in the Majors.

4. Scott Sizemore, 2B, triple-A
DOB: January 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 5th round – Virginia Commonwealth University
MLB ETA: Early-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

He has yet to play in the Majors, but Sizemore is currently being considered for the everyday second base job in 2010, if incumbent Placido Polanco leaves via free agency, as expected. The keystone prospect rebounded from an injury-marred season in ’08 to hit .300-plus at both double-A and triple-A. At the lower level, Sizemore produced a triple-slash line of .307/.402/.535 in 228 at-bats. Then in triple-A, he hit .308/.378/.473 with an ISO of .164 in 292 at-bats. The right-handed hitter showed more power in ’09 than he has at any point in his career. He also has good patience at the plate with a career walk rate above 10%. Along with 15 homer potential, the 24-year-old prospect could steal 10-15 bases. Defensively, Sizemore will not come close to matching Polanco’s defensive value.

5. Wilkin Ramirez, OF, Majors
DOB: October 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2003 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

Ramirez had a respectable season in triple-A in ’09, and he has an intriguing combination of speed (33 steals in 43 attempts) and power (.187 ISO). Quite possibly a future 20-20 guy if he gets the chance to play everyday, Ramirez likely won’t hit for a high average due to his high strikeout rates (32.9 K% in triple-A in ’09). The converted third baseman is also not a good fielder despite a strong arm that is good enough for right field; he’s stuck in left, thanks to poor routes and range. If the 24-year-old prospect can curb his whiffs and show a little more drive, he could develop into an above-average regular. Otherwise, he’ll likely never reach his full potential.

6. Robbie Weinhardt, RHP, double-A
DOB: December 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 10th round – Oklahoma State University
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball

One of the many ’08 college relievers drafted by the Tigers organization, Weinhardt is my personal favorite. The right-hander has done a respectable job of missing bats while showing solid control (save for double-A in ’09), and he’s also posted nice strikeout rates, including a rate of 11.27 K/9 in 67.0 high-A innings over two seasons (’08-’09). In close to 100 career innings, Weinhardt has allowed just three homers. He posted a line-drive rate of 12.9% in ’09. The right-hander showed his late-inning moxie by allowing a batting average of .160 with runners in scoring position and a LOB rate of 87%. He could very well be helping out the big-league bullpen by mid-2010; although his stuff is not as electric as Ryan Perry’s, Weinhardt is a better all-around pitcher at this point.

7. Cody Satterwhite, RHP, double-A
DOB: January 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 2nd round – University of Mississippi
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 92-97 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Satterwhite was one of the hard-throwing college relievers nabbed during the ’08 draft. The right-hander did not progress quite as well as hoped during his college career after demanding (and failing to get) big money coming out of high school. Command and control issues have always been a concern for Satterwhite, who posted a walk rate of 4.93 BB/9 at double-A in ’09. In 49.1 innings of work, he allowed 46 hits and posted a strikeout rate of 9.49 K/9. His ground-ball rate improved almost 10% over ’08 to 47%. Satterwhite did quite well against left-handed batters and held them to a .179 batting average, with a strikeout rate of 11.19 K/9. Because of his control issues, he’s probably going to top out as an eighth-inning guy if that doesn’t change.

8. Brennan Boesch, OF, double-A
DOB: April 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 3rd round – University of California
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

The lack of overall depth in the system – especially amongst the bats – helps to move Boesch up the depth chart. You cannot argue with his power, as the left-handed hitter posted an ISO of .235 at double-A in ’09. At 6’6”, Boesch could simply be a late bloomer, as larger hitters tend to need extra time to learn to repeat their swings. However, his walk rate of 5.9 BB% leaves something to be desired; the highest OBP he’s posted in the past three seasons is .318, with the lowest being .297. Not the fleetest of foot, the outfielder has shown that he’s a pretty smart base runner after stealing 11 bases in 13 attempts this past year, as well as 15 of 19 in ’07. His career OPS of .654 against southpaws suggests that a platoon role is in Boesch’s MLB future.

9. Alfredo Figaro, RHP, Majors
DOB: July 1984 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 89-93 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

Figaro has posted some solid FIPs in the minors without rising above 3.86 in the past four seasons. In ’09, he allowed just 67 hits in 80 innings of work in double-A, while posting a 3.67 FIP. He also continued to show solid command with a walk rate of 2.59 BB/9 and his strikeout rate hit its highest mark in four years at 7.76 K/9. Promoted to the Majors, Figaro struggled by allowing 23 hits, and three homers (1.59 HR/9), in 17 innings of work. The right-hander struggled with his control and posted a walk rate of 5.29 BB/9 in the small sample size. The 24-year-old hurler does not have the biggest arm in the system, but he’s got more than enough to offer in the back end of the rotation as a fourth starter – especially if he can get his ground-ball rate back above 50%, where it was in ’06-’08. He also needs to improve his change-up against left-handed hitters (.331 vs .218 in double-A).

10. Luis Marte, RHP, triple-A
DOB: August 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Perhaps a bit of a controversial pick to appear on the Top 10 list, Marte has shown solid control in his career, including a 2.39 BB/9 rate in ’09 at double-A. He’s hit a bit of a wall the past two seasons in double-A but he’s also struggled with his health. At just 5’11”, the slight right-hander may be better suited to bullpen work to help ease some of the strain on his body. It could also help him since he struggles against left-handed hitters when he cannot command his change-up, which is his third-best pitch. Marte needs to work down in the zone more often, as well, and he allowed a home-run rate of 1.54 HR/9 in ’09. It will be interesting to see what the 23-year-old right-hander can do during a full healthy season.

Up Next: The Pittsburgh Pirates

General Manager: David Dombrowski
Farm Director: Glenn Ezell
Scouting Director: David Chadd

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-draft signees ($200,000+)

2009 1st Round: Jacob Turner, RHP, Missouri HS
2. Andrew Oliver, LHP, Oklahoma State
3. Wade Gaynor, 3B, Western Kentucky
6x- Daniel Fields, SS, Michigan HS
30x- James Robbins, 1B, Washington HS

Following up the success that the organization had with Rick Porcello, the club nabbed another advanced high school arm in Turner. The right-hander did not make a pro appearance after signing, but he’ll likely begin his career in low-A ball at the start of 2010. He has No. 1 starter potential, but he’s probably not going to get to the Majors as quickly as Porcello did.

The club nabbed a couple of college players – Oliver and Austin Wood (5th round) – who should move quickly, especially if they’re kept in the bullpen. Oliver did not appear in a game during the regular season, but he did get into 10 games in the Arizona Fall League. In 15 innings, he allowed 12 hits and struggled with his control with nine walks. On the plus side, he struck out 15 batters. He uses a low-to-mid-90s fastball, cutter and change-up. Wood, another lefty, made just four appearances during the regular season, including three in high-A. In six total innings, he did not walk a batter or give up a homer. Wood’s repertoire includes an 88-91 mph fastball and a solid change-up.

Third-round pick Wade Gaynor had a rough debut in short-season ball, and he hit just .192/.281/.282 with eight steals in 234 at-bats. He was hurt by a .235 BABIP. Over-draft signee Fields did not appear in a regular-season game, but the organization has a lot of hope for the shortstop. He walked away from a scholarship with the University of Michigan for a $1.6 million bonus, but he’s still raw in many facets of the game. Keep an eye on ninth round pick John Murrian. The catcher had a solid debut in short-season ball by hitting .296/.356/.468 in 186 at-bats. Entering the draft, he was considered a solid hitter who had below-average power. He took to wood bats quite well, though, and posted a promising ISO of .172. Murrian also has a good defensive reputation.

2008 1st Round: Ryan Perry, RHP, Arizona
2. Cody Satterwhite, RHP, Mississippi
3. Scott Green, RHP, Kentucky

The 2008 draft was all about adding pitching depth to the system – and choosing players that could move quickly into the barren upper levels of the organizations. First-rounder Perry did just that and spent a good portion of the season in Detroit where he showed some rough spots with a 5.55 BB/9 rate and a 4.52 FIP. He needs to add polish to his control, as well as the command of his slider. Satterwhite spent the ’09 season in double-A where he also struggled with his control and posted a walk rate of 4.93 BB/9. He has good overall stuff and should help out the MLB team soon. Green had a nice year in high-A ball, although he missed some time. In 36.0 innings, he posted a strikeout rate of 8.75 K/9 and showed better control than some of the other pitchers in the draft with a 3.50 BB/9.

Fourth rounder Brett Jacobson, another college reliever, was traded to Baltimore in the Aubrey Huff deal in ’09. The best reliever of the bunch may turn out to be Robbie Weinhardt (10th round). He reached double-A in ’09 and has shown inconsistent control at times, but he strikes out a lot of batters (9.19 K/9 in 31.1 double-A innings) while maintaining a ground-ball rate around 50%.

Fifth-rounder Alex Avila has exceeded all expectations and reached in the Majors in ’09 after hitting well in double-A. He also showed intriguing patience and power potential this past season; Avila hit five homers in 61 MLB at-bats (.311 ISO). He could be the catcher of the future for the organization. Infielder Brandon Douglas (11th round) has also been better than advertised after dealing with injuries in college. Already 24, he projects as a big-league utility player at the very least.

2007 1st Round: Rick Porcello, RHP, New Jersey HS
1S. Brandon Hamilton, RHP, Alabama HS
2. Danny Worth, SS, Pepperdine
3. Luke Putkonen, RHP, North Carolina
5x- Casey Crosby, LHP, Illinois HS
6x- Cale Iorg, SS, Alabama

The ’07 draft had some ups and some downs. Porcello rocketed to the Majors and had a Rookie-of-the-Year-worthy season. Crosby has been hampered by injuries but he got back on track in ’09 with a 2.80 FIP in 24 low-A starts. Putkonen also had a solid ’09 season. Both Worth and Iorg have been disappointments, and both were rushed to the detriment of their careers. Hamilton’s control has been all over the map in his three-year career and he posted a walk rate of 5.55 in low-A ball in ’09. His ERA was ugly at 7.09, but his FIP was a little less so at 5.15. The organization probably wishes that it had signed 41st rounder D.J. LeMahieu, an infielder who was the Cubs’ second-rounder in ’09 and hit very well in his debut.

2006 1st Round: Andrew Miller, LHP, North Carolina
2. Ron Bourquin, 3B, Ohio State
3. Brennan Boesch, OF, California

First-rounder Miller was used in a trade with Florida to acquire Miguel Cabrera (and Dontrelle Willis). Both Bourquin and Boesch have been disappointments, although the latter prospect showed potential in ’09 with solid power numbers (.235 ISO) in double-A. The club did score with its fourth-round (Ryan Strieby) and fifth-round (Scott Sizemore) selections. Both players could play big roles with the club in 2010, with Sizemore earmarked as the starting second baseman. Closer prospect Casey Weathers would have been a great sign out of the 25th round. He went in the first round to Colorado the following season.

Up Next: The Detroit Tigers Top 10 Prospects

General Manager: John Mozeliak
Farm Director: Mike Girsch
Scouting Director: Jeff Luhnow

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

Honestly, this is a pretty barren system, in terms of can’t-miss, impact talent… but it does have its fair share of intriguing names. The organization’s minor-league talented has been gutted by trades, as well as the graduation of 2009 top prospect Colby Rasmus. The organization did select three very interesting names at the top of the draft in ’09, which helps provide a lifeline to the system.

1. Lance Lynn, RHP, double-A
DOB: May 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 supplemental 1st round – U of Mississippi
MLB ETA: mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Lynn doesn’t light up the radar gun, but he has a solid repertoire that he commands well, he does a relatively nice job of pounding the strike zone (this slipped a bit in double-A) and he’s a big, strong, durable guy. The right-hander doesn’t really project as a top-of-the-rotation starter, but he should be a solid No. 3 guy who could pitch a few years at the level of a No. 2. Lynn has had few problems with minor-league hitters in his career and he posted a 3.47 FIP in 126.1 double-A innings. He also does a great job of keeping the ball in the park; he allowed five homers in ’09 (0.30 HR/9). His ground-ball rate was just shy of 50%. Lynn has had some nicer strikeout numbers in the lower minors in small-sample sizes but the 6.98 K/9 in double-A is a little worrisome; he’s had success putting a lot of balls in play, but he’s also been helped by some lower BABIPs.

2. Jaime Garcia, LHP, triple-A
DOB: June 1986 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 22nd round – Texas HS
MLB ETA: mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

A number of top pitching prospects in the system have been derailed by injuries and Garcia has been no different. Bothered by elbow problems for the past few years, Garcia finally had elbow surgery and missed a good portion of the ’09 season. He returned in time to make nine appearances and he actually pitched quite well. In 21 triple-A innings, the left-hander struck out 22 batters in 21.0 innings of work. In the small-sample size, his control was improved over the previous few seasons, which was nice to see since a lot of pitchers struggle with their control after a long layoff. On the downside, Garcia allowed five homers at triple-A (2.14 HR/9). Along with his solid repertoire, the southpaw is also an extreme ground-ball pitcher and that continued in ’09 as he posted a 62.4 GB% in 51.0 combined innings. At the very latest, Garcia should be helping out the Cardinals by mid-2010.

3. Daryl Jones, OF, double-A
DOB: June 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2005 3rd round – Texas HS
MLB ETA: late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

After teasing the organization with his potential in both 2006 and ’07, Jones broke out in ’08. His growth hit a bit of a wall in double-A in ’09 but he appeared in just 80 games due to injury. The outfielder hit .279/.360/.378 in 294 at-bats. His ISO fell by almost half to just .099 in ’09 his wOBA dropped from .410 to .343. After stealing 20+ bases in both ’07 and ’08, Jones managed just seven this past year in 11 attempts – and was on pace for fewer than 20 even without the missed time. Still just 22, Jones could head back to double-A in 2010 for the third time, or the organization could be aggressive with him and bump him up to triple-A. Because he hits left-handers well and should avoid the dreaded platoon, Jones has the potential to be an impact outfielder – especially if he can find his power stroke again.

4. Allen Craig, 3B/LF, triple-A
DOB: July 1984 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 8th round – U of California
MLB ETA: early-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

The hot corner has been a bit of an issue for St. Louis in recent years but the organization has a few prospects on the cusp of the Majors that are capable of playing third base. Craig is often overlooked but the 25-year-old infielder has quietly slugged 20+ homers in three straight seasons, while hitting above .300. In ’09 at triple-A, Craig hit .322/.374/.547 with an ISO of .225 in 472 at-bats. He was aided by a healthy .359 BABIP. If you want to nitpick on Craig’s stats, he could do a better job of getting on base if he took a few more free passes; he posted a walk rate of 7.3% in ’09. For a slugger, he does a nice job of limiting strikeouts and typically keeps his strikeout rate below 20.0%. After spending the majority of his minor-league career at the hot corner, Craig spent more time (71 games) in left field at triple-A. He also played 42 games at first base and just 13 at third base. He could be given consideration at third in the spring, but his value to the club may lie in his versatility.

5. Eduardo Sanchez, RHP, double-A
DOB: March 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted amateur free agent
MLB ETA: late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 91-96 mph fastball, curveball

Sanchez burst onto the prospect landscape in a big way in ’09. The formerly obscure relief prospect missed a lot of bats in both high-A and double-A by posting a strikeout rate just shy of 10.0%. He also showed improved control, although it did slip at times. The 20-year-old right-hander could see his fastball velocity jump even higher if he adds a little more bulk to his slender frame. Sanchez allowed just 32 hits in 50 double-A innings, but he posted a very low BABIP at .248, which is something he’s done consistently throughout his minor-league career. The right-hander dominates right-handed batters (.170 in ’09) but he also holds his own against left-handers (.202). For a hard-throwing reliever, Sanchez does a respectable job of keeping the ball on the ground with a ground-ball rate right around 50.0%.

6. Dan Descalso, IF, triple-A
DOB: October 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 3rd round – U of California-Davis
MLB ETA: mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Descalso, like Craig, could offer a lot of roster flexibility with his ability to play multiple positions. Mainly a second baseman, the left-handed hitter split ’09 between double-A and triple-A. At the lower level, he hit .323/.396/.531 (.356 BABIP) in 288 at-bats. At triple-A, he slipped to .253/.327/.320 (.283 BABIP) in 150 at-bats. Descalso’s numbers have been pretty inconsistent over his career; he’s shown flashes of hitting for average, as well as flashes of hitting for power. Because he’s done neither consistently, he could end up as a utility player. If the 23-year-old infielder can improve, though, he could be the long-term answer at second base, as he hits both left-handers and right-handers equally well.

7. Adam Reifer, RHP, high-A
DOB: June 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 11th round – U.C. Riverside
MLB ETA: mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 92-97 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Reifer is a step behind Sanchez in the race to provide late-inning support in St. Louis. The 23-year-old right-hander can hit the high-90s with his fastball and he had a solid year in high-A ball despite the misleading 4.47 ERA. Reifer posted a 3.53 FIP and had a strikeout rate of 9.31 K/9. He put a lot of men on base with a 4.47 BB/9 and with 51 hits allowed in 48.1, but he was victimized by a high BABIP at .362, as well as a poor LOB rate at 67.8%. If he can sharpen up his control, Reifer should settle into an eighth- or ninth-inning role in the Majors. To be a closer, he’ll need to improve his control when facing left-handed batters after posting a walk rate of 6.35 BB/9 against them in ’09.

8. David Freese, 3B, triple-A
DOB: April 1983 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 9th round – University of South Alabama (Drafted by San Diego)
MLB ETA: early 2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

Freese is getting a little long-in-the-tooth for a prospect, but he signed out of college as a senior so he had a late start to his career. Injuries prevented him from seeing more time in the Majors in ’09 (31 at-bats) but he hit above .300 at every level that he played at this past season (including rehab time). At triple-A, Freese hit .300/.369/.525 in 200 at-bats. He posted a .225 ISO and has 20-25 home run potential. The right-handed hitter has shown a consistent ability to hit .300 in the minors, but he’s also been aided by some solid BABIPs. He might not be so lucky in the Majors, but that remains to be seen. All signs point to Freese being given the first shot at the third-base job in St. Louis in 2010, although Mark DeRosa could end up back with the Cardinals.

9. Bryan Anderson, C, triple-A
DOB: December 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2005 4th round – California HS
MLB ETA: late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

It was an off-year for Anderson, who battled through injuries and did not hit as well as he had in the past. However, the catcher is still just 22 years old and he has a ton of potential. After showing consistent ability to hit .280-.300 in ’06 to ’08. Anderson slipped to .245/.293/.399 in 163 triple-A at-bats. His walk rate was also a disappointing 5.8% and he struck out at a rate of 25.8%, despite typically sitting below 20.0%. His defense has improved over the past few seasons but Anderson is not going to unseat Yadier Molina any time soon. He could end up backing up the incumbent, or Anderson could shift to another position, thanks to solid athleticism. He could also be used as trade bait once he’s shown he’s fully healthy.

10. Pete Kozma, 2B, double-A
DOB: April 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – Oklahoma HS
MLB ETA: mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Kozma barely hangs on as a Top 10 prospect, thanks to the exclusion of 2009 draft picks in this series. The former first round draft pick is currently living on reputation right now after hitting just .216/.288/.312 in 407 at-bats. After posting an .096 ISO and stealing just four bases, he needs to start doing something well if he’s going to avoid the dreaded utility label. Kozma was hurt by a low .262 BABIP in ’09. Just 21, 2010 will be a big year for Kozma who will likely repeat double-A in the hopes of finding his batting stroke; the 21.4% line-drive rate is encouraging.

A special thanks to both Erik Manning and Dan Budreika for their input on the Top 10 list.

Up Next: The Detroit Tigers

General Manager: John Mozeliak
Farm Director: Mike Girsch
Scouting Director: Jeff Luhnow

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-draft signees ($200,000+)

2009 1st Round: Shelby Miller, RHP, Texas HS
2. Robert Stock, C, Southern California
3. Joe Kelly, RHP, UC Riverside

The Cardinals organization appears to have had a strong draft in ’09, but it will likely be a while before fans reap the benefits, especially in the case of Miller. The right-hander was drafted out of a Texas high school, so he’ll likely need about four years of development time before he’s ready to contribute on the big-league stage. In his debut, Miller made just two starts. In three innings, he allowed five hits and two walks. He also recorded two strikeouts. Miller’s repertoire includes a fastball that can touch 95 mph, as well as a curveball and a change-up. He’s considered a future No. 1 or 2 starter.

Stock has been on the draft radar for quite some time, and he even left high school early to pursue his collegiate career. Many expected Stock to be drafted as a pitcher, but the Cardinals allowed him to pursue his preferred vocation. As a pitcher at the University of Southern California, Stock allowed just 61 hits in 77.2 innings of work and had a strikeout rate of 10.0 K/9. As a hitter, he posted a triple-slash line of just .226/.345/.453 in 137 at-bats and failed to surpass the .300 batting-average mark in all three of his college seasons. Upon turning pro, Stock hit .322/.386/.550 with an ISO of .228 in 149 rookie-league at-bats. He also received a five-game trial in low-A ball. The 20-year-old surpassed all expectations with the bat in pro ball in ’09, but he was a college player playing in rookie ball.

Taken in the third round out of U.C. Riverside, Kelly should be considered an interesting sleeper. The right-hander is a ground-ball machine like a number of other Riverside grads, including Toronto’s Marc Rzepczynski. Kelly had a solid debut in short-season ball by posting a 2.61 FIP and a strikeout rate of 8.90 to go along with his ground-ball rate of 56.4%. He dominated lefties in his debut (.188 average), which is a good sign for a pitcher who relies heavily on his slider. Kelly made two starts in his debut, but he’ll likely end up as a dominating reliever, and quite possibly a closer.

2008 1st Round: Brett Wallace, 3B, Arizona State (Traded to OAK)
1S. Lance Lynn, RHP, Mississippi
2. Shane Peterson, OF, Long Beach State (Traded to OAK)
3. Niko Vazquez, SS, Nevada HS

Both Wallace and Peterson were used to acquire veteran Matt Holliday during the ’09 season. It was a high price to pay for what may end up being less than a year’s worth of Holliday. Wallace, 23, could find himself in the Majors in 2010 at either third base, first base or designated hitter. His power output improved after the move to Oakland and he posted an ISO rate of .203. Peterson had a solid season playing for both St. Louis and Oakland, but he may not have enough sock in his bat to play every day.

We’ll talk more in-depth on Lynn tomorrow during the Top 10 list, but he’s been a pleasant (fast-moving) surprise by reaching triple-A in his first full pro season. Vazquez had a terrible offensive season by hitting .197/.295/.250 in low-A ball and .209/.283/.293 in short-season ball. He’s also shown limited power and stole just three bases all year, so his value is tied solely to his ability to hit for average. He’s still just 20 years old, though. Scott Gorgen (4th round) is another pitcher to keep an eye on, and catcher Charles Cutler (14th round) has shown a solid left-handed bat.

2007 1st Round: Peter Kozma, SS, Oklahoma HS
1S. Clayton Mortensen, RHP, Gonzaga (Traded to OAK)
2. David Kopp, RHP, Clemson
2. Jess Todd, RHP, Arkansas
3. Daniel Descalso, 3B, UC Davis
x- Brett Zawacki, RHP, Illinois HS

The Cardinals organization had a number of extra picks in ’07, but the results have been fairly modest, especially with Mortensen flipped to Oakland in the Holliday trade and Todd sent to Cleveland in the Mark DeRosa deal. First rounder Kozma, 21, has already reached double-A, but he hit just .216/.288/.312 and many are now projecting him as a utilty player. He still has promise, but he’s a middle infielder with limited power (.096 ISO) and he hasn’t had much success on the base paths, either.

Descalso, like Kozma, appears on the Top 10 list. Zawacki has yet to justify the above-slot deal he received and made just eight appearances in ’09. Kopp has had OK results, but projects as a reliever in the Majors. Tyler Henley (8th round), Adam Reifer (11th round), and Adron Chambers (38th round) were nice late-round finds. Signing college outfielder Kyle Russell in the fourth round would have made this draft all the better.

2006 1st Round: Adam Ottavino, RHP, Northeastern
1S. Chris Perez, RHP, Miami
2. Brad Furnish, LHP, Texas Christian
2. Jon Jay, OF, Miami
2S. Mark Hamilton, 1B, Tulane
3. Gary Daley, RHP, Cal Poly
x- Tommy Pham, SS, Nevada HS

Ottavino has had an up-and-down career in the organization mainly due to poor control and command; he posted a walk rate of 5.13 BB/9 in ’09 and has seen it increase over the past three seasons, while climbing the organizational ladder. Perez, like Todd, was traded to Cleveland. Jay may wind up as the most valuable pick in this draft. Furnish (6.48 FIP in double-A), Daley (5.99 BB% in low-A), and Pham (.691 OPS in high-A) have all disappointed. Hamilton showed improved power at double-A and triple-A in ’09, but his career has been slowed by injuries.

Late round finds include: Allen Craig (8th round), P.J. Walters (11th round), and Nick Additon (47th round). Luke Gregerson was another great find, but he’s applying his trade in San Diego now after being sent there in the Khalil Greene swap. D’Marcus Ingram (25th round), who has good speed, is someone to keep an eye on.

Tomorrow: The Cardinals Top 10 prospect list

General Manager: Dayton Moore
Farm Director: Mike Arbuckle
Scouting Director: J.J. Picollo

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

The system certainly has some talent brewing, but most of it lies below the double-A level, so fans are going to have to be patient. A renewed emphasis on the draft should definitely help turn the organization around. For more on the ’09 draft picks, see yesterday’s post.

1. Mike Montgomery, LHP, high-A
DOB: July 1989 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 supplemental 1st round – California HS
MLB ETA: late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-95 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

If the organization can find a way to keep its current ace, then it could have a nasty one-two punch at the MLB level with Zack Greinke and Montgomery. The left-hander has flown through the system and will likely open ’10 in double-A. Montgomery, 20, posted a 2.30 FIP in 52.0 innings in high-A in ’09. He allowed just 38 hits and posted a walk rate of 2.08 BB/9. He also showed that he can miss some bats with a strikeout rate of 7.96 K/9. In his career, Montgomery has allowed just three homers in 152.2 innings of work, thanks in part to his solid ground-ball rates. His rate averaged out at 50% for the ’09 season.

2. Mike Moustakas, 3B, high-A
DOB: September 1988 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – California HS
MLB ETA: mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Still just 21 years of age, Moustakas has been hurt by some low BABIPs over the past two seasons: .291 in ’08 and .277 in ’09. As a result, this former No. 1 draft pick’s triple-slash numbers have plummeted each of his three pro seasons. Moustakas is going to have to improve his patience at the plate (6.1 BB% in ’09) but he does flash some raw power (.171 ISO in ’09). A .319 wOBA is not going to make him an impact third baseman.

3. Eric Hosmer, 1B, high-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 1st round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Big things were expected of Hosmer in ’09, but he struggled with his vision and hit just .254/.352/.382 in 280 low-A at-bats. Curiously, the organization chose to promote the first baseman despite the lackluster numbers. He then hit .206/.280/.299 in 97 high-A at-bats. On the plus side, Hosmer posted a walk rate of 13.6% in low-A, which is extra impressive considering he was not seeing the ball very well.

4. Danny Duffy, LHP, high-A
DOB: December 1988 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 3rd round – California HS
MLB ETA: mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, curveball, slider, change-up

He’s certainly not the hardest thrower in the system, but Duffy knows how to pitch, as witnessed by his 2.84 FIP in high-A ball in ’09. Duffy allowed 108 hits in 126.2 innings of work. He gave up just six homers (0.43 HR/9) and showed solid control with a walk rate of 2.91 BB/9. His strikeout rate dropped from 11.24 in low-A in ’08 to 8.88 K/9 in ’09, but it’s still an encouraging number. A word of caution: Despite his low homers-allowed totals, Duffy is a fly-ball pitcher. He posted a ground-ball rate of just 42.2% in ’09 and 36.6% in ’08, so that suggests he’s going to have to work down in the zone a little more.

5. Tim Melville, RHP, low-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 4th round – Missouri HS
MLB ETA: early-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Melville entered the ’08 draft more highly regarded than organization-mate Montgomery, who has now passed him. Melville had a solid debut year (unlike Montgomery, he did not pitch in ’08) and allowed just 89 hits in 97.1 innings. The right-hander pitches up in the zone more than Montgomery, and he was hurt by a 0.92 HR/9 rate. He also showed less control with a walk rate of 3.98 BB/9. Melville did, however, show the ability to strike out batters with a K-rate of 8.88 K/9.

6. Kila Ka’aihue, 1B, triple-A
DOB: March 1984 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2002 15th round – Hawaii HS
MLB ETA: early-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 1

Ka’aihue was the forgotten man in the organization while Mike Jacobs played everyday and provided below average production (-0.7 WAR). Despite slugging 38 homers in ’08, the 25-year-old spent the entire year in triple-A where he hit .252/.392/.433 with an ISO of .181 in 441 at-bats. Ka’aihue walked 102 times on the year… or six fewer times than Jacobs has in the last three years combined. If Kansas City is not going to take him seriously as a cheap source of power, it should do the slugger a favor by trading him.

7. David Lough, OF, double-A
DOB: January 1986 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 11th round – Mercyhurst College
MLB ETA: mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The 23-year-old Lough had a breakout ’09 season and could be the best in-house option to eventually replace David DeJesus or Coco Crisp (when they are deemed too expensive). Lough, though, is probably still a year away from being ready to play everyday at the MLB level. In ’09, he began the year in high-A and hit .320/.370/.473 in 222 at-bats. He then moved up to double-A where he hit .331/.371/.517 with a .186 ISO in 236 at-bats. Lough stole 19 bases but was caught eight times, and he needs to get on base more frequently (4.8 BB% in double-A) to take advantage of his speed.

8. Jeff Bianchi, SS, double-A
DOB: October 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 2nd round – Pennsylvania HS
MLB ETA: late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Finally healthy, Bianchi showed consistency in ’09 and reached double-A. In high-A ball, the shortstop hit .300/.360/.427 in 220 at-bats. Moved up to double-A, Bianchi responded with a triple-slash line of .315/.356/.441 in 270 at-bats. He also stole 22 bases on the year and was caught just six times. The 23-year-old infielder strikes out too much (21.5 K%) for his modest power.

9. John Lamb, LHP, rookie
DOB: July 1990 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 5th round – California HS
MLB ETA: late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 87-91 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Lamb did not pitch after signing in ’08, so he made his pro debut in ’09 and pitched well at two rookie ball levels. Overall, he allowed 57 hits in 68.2 innings and showed good control with a walk rate around 2.70 BB/9. Despite an average fastball, Lamb used his control and deception to strike out almost one batter per inning. He should jump to low-A in 2010, and he still has a long way to climb before reaching Kansas City.

10. Tyler Sample, RHP, rookie
DOB: June 1989 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Colorado HS
MLB ETA: mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

This ’08 draft pick gets lost in the shuffle behind some of the bigger names, but Sample had an impressive year in ’09. The right-hander allowed 41 hits in 54.2 innings of work while posting a strikeout rate around 8.00 K/9. His control is still a work in progress, but it was right around 3.60 BB/9. Sample posted a modest 43.4% ground-ball rate, but he allowed just two home runs (0.16 HR/9).

Up Next: The St. Louis Cardinals

General Manager: Dayton Moore
Farm Director: Mike Arbuckle
Scouting Director: J.J. Picollo

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-draft signees ($200,000+)

2009 1st Round: Aaron Crow, RHP, Independent ball
2. No pick
3. Wil Myers, C, North Carolina HS
4x- Chris Dwyer, LHP, Clemson
14x- Crawford Simmons, LHP, Georgia HS

The Royals organization did not make as big of a splash as it did in ’08, but the club still grabbed some interesting players. Crow, 23, has yet to make his regular-season debut, but the right-hander has been throwing in the Arizona Fall League. He’s shown some rust with 16 hits allowed in 11.1 innings, but he’s walked just two batters. On the plus side, he’s producing a nice ground-ball ratio. Myers got off to a quick start in his career in rookie ball. The right-handed hitting catcher has shown plus power and a good eye at the plate.

Dwyer made just four starts in rookie ball at the end of the season and struggled with his control. He did, however, strike out 15 batters in 8.2 innings of work. Simmons has yet to throw a pitch for the organization. Louis Coleman was signed in the fifth round of the ’09 draft as a senior out of Louisiana State University. The 23-year-old hurler could move quickly as a reliever with a low-90s fastball and slider. He’s already reached high-A ball.

2008 1st Round: Eric Hosmer, 1B, Florida HS
1S. Mike Montgomery, LHP, California HS
2. Johnny Giavotella, 2B, New Orleans
3. Tyler Sample, RHP, Colorado HS
4x- Tim Melville, RHP, Missouri HS

The Royals spent a lot of money on the 2008 draft and the organization has received a solid return on its investment. Four of the above five players are on the club’s Top 10 prospects list. Fifth-round pick John Lamb is also on the list. Both Montgomery and Melville have a chance to be top-of-the-rotation starters, although they have a long way to go. Hosmer had a less-than-impressive ’09 season – his first full year – but he struggled with vision problems, which have been corrected via surgery. All in all, this was a stellar draft.

2007 1st Round: Mike Moustakas, 3B, California HS
2. Sam Runion, RHP, North Carolina HS
3. Danny Duffy, LHP, California HS
x-Keaton Hayenga, RHP, Washington HS

Moustakas has been a little slower to develop than many had hoped, and Runion’s career has been sidelined by injuries. Duffy looks to be a third-round steal. Outfielder David Lough (11th) and right-hander Matt Mitchell (14th) were good late-round picks. Lough jumps onto the Top 10 list this year, while Mitchell posted a 3.63 FIP in low-A ball in ’08. He then missed all of ’09 due to injury.

2006 1st Round: Luke Hochevar, RHP, Independent League
2. Jason Taylor, IF/OF, Virginia HS
3. Blake Wood, RHP, Georgia Tech
x- Derrick Robinson, Florida HS

Hochevar spent almost the entire season in the Royals’ starting rotation, but he allowed 167 hits in 143.0 innings and posted a 4.84 FIP. Already 26, Hochevar is going to have trouble living up to the hype as the first overall draft pick during the ’06 draft. Despite immense raw talent, Taylor just hasn’t been able to put everything together. He’s still just 21, though, and he hit .272/.357/.391 in 292 low-A at-bats.

Wood has a good fastball but he’s struggled in double-A the last two seasons and he was bitten by the injury bug in ’09. Despite blazing speed, Robinson has posted very low BABIPs in each of the past two seasons (.305, .281), which have significantly hurt his ability to get on base. The club drafted ’09 supplemental first round draft pick (Cincinnati) Brad Boxberger in the 20th round out of a California high school.

Tomorrow: The Royals Top 10 prospect list

This past week, we wrapped up our 2009 Minor Reviews for each organization in Major League Baseball. The posts took a look at a few prospects for each organization that failed to make the Top 10 lists, for a variety of reasons.

The Top 10 lists will begin posting this coming week, beginning with the Kansas City Royals. We will spend two days looking at each organization; the first day will be a review of the last four amateur drafts for each club, while the second day will break down the Top 10 lists, complete with commentary on each player.

One difference with our Top 10 lists from most other publications is that they will not include 2009 draft picks. To be honest, it’s very difficult to effectively rank most same-year draft picks (not including the likes of Stephen Strasburg, of course) because of the small sample sizes offered in their debut seasons. As well, many top-ranked draft picks have been signing late each year with many of them not making their debuts until the following year. Key ’09 draft picks will be highlighted during the four-year amateur draft reviews that precede the Top 10 lists for each team.

If you missed your team’s Minor Review series, the links are posted below for your convenience, along with the five players reviewed for each club. In some instances you’ll notice some top prospects were reviewed (and will be showing up again on their teams’ Top 10 lists) because they were highlighted during the ’08 Minor Review series as their teams’ sleeper prospects for 2009.

The National League East

Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

The Graduate: J.A. Happ, LHP
Happ did not garner a lot of attention while rising through the minors, but the left-hander had a solid rookie season for the Phillies. He did a nice job of keeping runners off base with just 149 hits allowed and a walk rate of 3.04 BB/9 in 166.0 innings. Happ’s strikeout rate dipped from his minor-league average, but it was still reasonable at 6.45 K/9. If he can utilize his curveball more often, it might help him with his strikeout rate, because it will change the hitters’ eye levels. One of the biggest ugly marks on his stats line is the 38.4% ground-ball rate.

The Riser: Trevor May, RHP
The 20-year-old May made just 15 starts in ’09, but he flashed some intriguing potential. The right-hander posted a strikeout rate of 11.06 K/9 while allowing 58 hits in 77.1 innings at the low-A ball level. May did struggle with his control, posting a walk rate of 5.00 BB/9. He did a nice job of keeping the ball in the park with a HR/9 rate of 0.35. Left-handers hit just .188 against him in ’09. May features an 87-93 mph fastball, curveball and change-up.

The Tumbler: Anthony Hewitt, OF
Hewitt is a classic raw athlete with the potential to absolutely explode if he can embrace the nuances of the sport. It could be a long wait for Phillies fans, though. After struggling during his debut in ’08, the 20-year-old Hewitt scuffled again in ’09 and hit just .223/.255/.395 in 233 at-bats. He posted a low walk rate of 3.7% and his strikeout rate was far too high at 33.0%. In a small sample size of 44 at-bats, his performance against southpaws was brutal: .136/.188/.273. Hewitt did show some power with an ISO of .172. He has some speed on the bases, but his base-stealing skills are raw, and he was successful in just nine of 14 attempts.

The ’10 Sleeper: Yohan Flande, LHP
The 23-year-old Flande had a solid debut in North America in ’08, and he followed that up by making 13 starts in both high-A and double-A in ’09. The left-hander allowed 81 hits in 70.2 innings at the senior level, but he posted a solid FIP of 3.94. Flande posted solid walk rates at both levels and averaged out around 2.65 BB/9. His strikeout rate dropped from 7.35 in high-A to 6.27 K.9 in double-A. Overall, his ground-ball rate was solid at 52.1%. Flande’s repertoire includes an 87-91 mph fastball, a plus change-up and a developing slider.

Bonus: Drew Naylor, RHP
Naylor was highlighted in the ’08 series as the Phillies’ breakout candidate for ’09. Pitching in high-A in ’09, he had an OK year but really did nothing to distinguish himself. Naylor showed good control with a walk rate of 2.11 BB/9, and his strikeout rate was OK at 6.55 K/9. He allowed 162 hits in 158.0 innings of work. Naylor, 23, should move up to double-A in 2010.