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A Minor Review of ’09: New York Mets

Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

New York Mets

The Graduate: Bobby Parnell, RHP
Parnell was having a very fine season as a reliever in the Mets bullpen before the club tried him in the rotation. The right-hander has a heavy fastball that sits at 94 mph and he backs that up with a good slider. His change-up is not developed enough, which is one of the reasons why he struggled as a starter. Parnell also doesn’t throw enough first-pitch strikes (almost 10% below the league average). If left in the bullpen in ’09, the 25-year-old should be a solid reliever.

The Riser: Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF
Nieuwenhuis had a solid first full year in professional baseball in ’09. He began the year in high-A ball and hit .274/.357/.467 with a .193 ISO in 482 at-bats. He also stole 16 bases in 20 attempts. If Nieuwenhuis can continue to develop his raw power into over-the-fence power, he could become a 20-20 or 25-25 player at some point in his MLB career. The 22-year-old outfielder earned an eight-game trial in double-A and he should begin the season there. He has the makings of a solid everyday center fielder, but he needs to improve against southpaws after hitting just .235/.294/.348 in ’09.

The Tumbler: Eddie Kunz, RHP
After reaching the Majors in his first full MLB season in ’08, Kunz spent the entire ’09 season in triple-A where he posted a 5.53 FIP. The right-handed reliever allowed just 54 hits in 61.0 innings, but he posted a walk rate of 4.57 BB/9 and allowed a home-run rate of 1.18 HR/9. Kunz, 23, has a 90-95 mph fastball and slider; he needs to improve his command of both. These quick-to-the-Majors college relievers never seem to work out quite like they’re supposed to.

The ’10 Sleeper: Jeurys Familia, RHP
Familia came close to making the Top 10 list after the 19-year-old hurler allowed just 109 hits in 134.0 innings of work in low-A ball. He posted a walk rate of 3.09 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.32 K/9. Impressively, the young right-hander gave up just three homers (.020 HR/9) all year. Familia’s ground-ball rate was just shy of 50% at 48.8% and he limited the line-drive rate to just 12.3%. He features an 88-93 mph fastball, curveball and change-up.

Bonus: Jefry Marte, 3B
Highlighted in the ’08 series as the sleeper to watch out for in ’09, Marte made it onto the Top 10 list for 2009 so I won’t divulge too much information here. The 18-year-old third baseman spent the year in low-A ball and did not embarrass himself, although he needs to show more patience at the plate.


A Minor Review of ’09: Florida Marlins

Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

Florida Marlins

The Graduate: Chris Coghlan, LF/2B
A college third baseman and minor league second baseman, Coghlan moved to the outfield at the MLB level in ’09 to help fill the void after rookie Cameron Maybin showed that he needed more seasoning. Coghlan hit well: .321/.390/.460 in 504 at-bats. However, he lacks the power to be an impact corner outfielder, so he would be helped by a trade of veteran second baseman Dan Uggla. Although he stole just eight bases in 13 attempts, Coghlan has stolen 30+ bags in the minors. He posted a 2.3 WAR in ’09 but his -14.5 UZR/150 took a bite out of his ’09 value.

The Riser: Brad Hand, LHP
The 19-year-old Hand had a respectable first full year in pro ball. He allowed 130 hits in 127.2 innings of work. Hand walked too many batters with a rate of 4.65 BB/9, but the southpaw posted a strikeout rate of 8.60 K/9. After not allowing a home run in his pro debut in ’08 (47.2 IP), Hand gave up 12 in ’09 (0.85 HR/9), which is a reasonable rate. He ended the year well by limiting hitters to a .160 average in August. The southpaw will likely move up to high-A ball in ’10, and he will look to improve the command of his secondary pitches.

The Tumbler: Kyle Skipworth, C
An ’08 first round draft pick, Skipworth’s bat has wilted in pro ball. On the positive side, he’s still just 19 years old, so he has time to get things going. In low-A ball in ’09, Skipworth hit .208/.263/.348 with an ISO of .140 in 264 at-bats. He walked just 18 times (6.4 BB%) while striking out an eye-popping 34.5% of the time. Catchers often suffer from low BABIPs and Skipworth has been no different after posting rates of .259 in ’08 and .289 in ’09. The left-handed hitter batted just .091 versus southpaws, albeit in just 44 at-bats. Defensively, he threw out just 20% of runners attempting to steal.

The ’10 Sleeper: Daniel Jennings, LHP
With a low payroll, the Marlins club will always be looking for cheap relief options, and Jennings, 22, has positioned himself well for a shot in 2010. The southpaw pitched at three levels in ’09 and topped out in double-A. He spent the majority of his time in low-A and allowed 42 hits in 49.1 innings of work. Jennings handled left-handed and right-handed batters equally well, although he posted a much higher strikeout rate against same-side hitters. He posted an excellent strikeout rate at 9.85 K/9 and showed OK control with a walk rate of 3.83 BB/9. On the season, Jennings allowed just one home run in 62.2 innings.

Bonus: Jeff Allison, RHP
The former jewel of the system is still trying to salvage his career after a struggle with drugs. Giving him the benefit of the doubt, Allison was highlighted as a potential breakout candidate in ’09. The right-hander showed solid control and posted a walk rate of 1.94 BB/9 in high-A ball. His strikeout rate, though, was 4.59 K/9 and his plus fastball of old is still MIA. Regardless, Allison posted a 4.21 FIP and allowed 151 hits in 139.1 innings. He also allowed 13 homers (0.84 HR/9). Now 25, Allison has a shot at reaching the Majors in 2010 or 2011 as a middle reliever.


A Minor Review of ’09: Baltimore Orioles

Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

Baltimore Orioles

The Graduate: Matt Wieters, C
Wieters did not burst onto the MLB landscape quite as forcefully as some might have hoped, but he had a solid debut for someone with just two years of pro experience. Despite beginning the year in the minors, the catcher still posted a WAR of 1.9 and was worth roughly $8.4 million to the club. Wieters also made improvements as the year progressed. He showed that he’s currently a very good fastball hitter, but he needs to improve against breaking balls (especially sliders). For a rookie catcher, a line of .288/.340/.412 is nothing to sneeze at… and he’s only going to get better.

The Riser: Brandon Waring, 3B
Obtained from Cincinnati in the Ramon Hernandez trade, Waring continued to improve in ’09 and he has hit 20+ homers in all three of his pro seasons. This past year, playing mostly in high-A ball before a seven-game trial in double-A, Waring hit .273/.354/.520 in 473 at-bats. The biggest knock against him entering ’09 was his +30.0% strikeout rates, but he trimmed that to 25.6%, a more reasonable number for a slugger. His walk rate was just shy of 10.0%. Waring isn’t anything special at the hot corner, so he spent 76 games at first base in ’09 where he was OK. He could be the O’s first baseman of the future if Brandon Snyder cannot hack it.

The Tumbler: Billy Rowell, OF
Rowell has officially lost the debate over who was the best high school hitter of the ’06 draft… Rowell or Travis Snider. The Orioles minor leaguer is not even considered a future big-league hitter by some. After a dismal ’08 offensive season, ’09 got even worse (even though he was repeating high-A) with a triple-slash line of .225/.284/.336 in 423 at-bats. Rowell has about zero defensive value, as well. His once heralded power has diminished with his ISO dropping each season from .178 to .153 to .120 to .111.

The ’10 Sleeper: Caleb Joseph, C
When it rains, it pours. The organization already has a top-notch, young starting catcher in Wieters, but Joseph is zooming up the depth chart. He won’t unseat Wieters at the MLB level, but Joseph could be valuable trade bait if the organization does not want to waste his talent by sitting him on the bench for five or six games a week. Playing in high-A in ’09, the 23-year-old Joseph hit .284/.337/.450 with a .166 ISO in 380 at-bats.

Bonus: Brandon Erbe, RHP
I won’t get too in-depth with Erbe here because he’s going to appear on the ’09 Top 10 list for the Orioles. However, he was highlighted in the ’08 series as the sleeper for ’09 and he delivered. With five years of pro experience under his belt, Erbe is still just 21 years of age (He turns 22 in December).


A Minor Review of ’09: New York Yankees

Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

New York Yankees

The Graduate: Brett Gardner, OF
Gardner wasn’t a star during his rookie season in New York but he showed that he can – at the very least – be a useful fourth outfielder on a good team. The 26-year-old outfielder hit .270/.345/.379 with a .109 ISO in 248 at-bats. Gardner was a force on the base paths and stole 26 bases in 31 attempts. Overall, he posted a 2.1 WAR on the year and the majority of his value came from his defensive prowess (15.4 UZR/150 in center field).

The Riser: D.J. Mitchell, RHP
A 10th round draft pick out of Clemson University in ’08, Mitchell did not make his pro debut until ’09. The right-hander began the year in low-A ball and posted a 1.85 FIP in six starts. He then moved up to high-A where he allowed 93 hits in 103.1 innings of work. Mitchell showed good control with a walk rate of 3.31 BB/9 and his strikeout rate was solid at 7.23 K/9. He allowed just two home runs all year. His repertoire includes an 88-92 mph fastball, curveball and change-up. Right-handed batters hit just .197 against Mitchell, while left-handers hit .290.

The Tumbler: Dellin Betances, RHP
Betances’ numbers were OK in ’09 (3.76 FIP), but he gets tagged with the “tumbler” status because he was yet again unable to stay healthy for a full season. The right-hander made 24 starts in ’08, but he struggled with injuries in both ’07 and ’09, making just 11 appearances this past year. The time off could certainly be affecting his control and he posted a walk rate of 5.48 BB/9. Throughout all the injury woes, Betances has done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park (0.41 HR/9 in ’09).

The ’10 Sleeper: Brett Marshall, RHP
Drafted in ’08 along with Mitchell, the pair is looking to make New Yorkers forget about Gerrit Cole. Marshall, 19, had a bit of a rough year in 2009 with a 5.56 ERA and 98 hits allowed in 87.1 innings, but his FIP was just 4.45 and he showed OK control (3.81 BB/9) given his age and experience level. His fastball velocity ranges from 89-94 mph and he also has three other pitches that he dabbles with: slider, curveball, and change-up. Look for the right-hander to take another step forward in ’10.

Bonus: Austin Romine, C
During the ’08 series, the Yankees catching prospect was highlighted as a potential breakout candidate for ’09, Romine did just that. I won’t go into too much detail because he’s going to show up on the Top 10 list for the organization. Romine has a very good chance of being the Yankees’ starting catcher of the future… if Jorge Posada’s age ever catches up to him. (And yes, I am assuming Jesus Montero will move to 1B or DH).


A Minor Review of ’09: Atlanta Braves

Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

Atlanta Braves

The Graduate: Jordan Schafer, OF
A lot was expected from the 23-year-old Schafer in ’09, but he hit just .204/.313/.287 in 167 at-bats and ended up back in the minors. His 63 strikeouts in 167 at-bats (37.7 K%) were a huge issue, but he did post a walk rate of 13.9 BB%. His contact rate of 64.6% was well below the league average of 80.5%. Defensively, he had some issues with his range in center field and, overall, he posted a WAR of -0.3. Schafer could very well need some more seasoning in triple-A before he’s ready for another shot at a full-time role in the Majors.

The Riser: Adam Milligan, OF
An injury prevented the ’08 draft pick from making his pro debut prior to the ’09 season. Milligan rose all the way to high-A in his first full season and he just narrowly missed the Top 10 list for the Braves. The outfielder hit .345/.393/.589 in 197 low-A at-bats and received a six-game trial in high-A, as well. Milligan, 21, displayed intriguing left-handed power (.244), but he needs to be a little more patient at the plate with a walk rate of 5.7 BB%. On the year, he held his own against southpaws with an .870 OPS, but he was even better against right-handers: 1.013 OPS. Milligan’s debut numbers were very impressive, but he was aided by a .394 BABIP.

The Tumbler: Cole Rohrbough, LHP
Rohrbough looked to be on the fast-track after solid numbers in his first two minor league seasons. Things fell apart a bit for him in ’09 as he allowed 129 hits in 117 innings of work in high-A. His ERA was 5.77 but his FIP was just 4.34. He posted a walk rate of 3.69 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.69 K/9. Rohrbough struggled with his command and allowed too many fat pitches, which resulted in an increased HR/9 rate to 0.92. The Braves could be aggressive with Rohrbough, 22, and move him up to double-A in ’10 given that his numbers were not quite as bad as they looked on the surface. He features an 89-93 mph fastball, curveball and change-up.

The ’10 Sleeper: Dimaster Delgado, LHP
Another left-handed pitcher, Delgado does not throw as hard as Rohrbaugh. His fastball currently sits at 86-90 mph but he projects to add velocity as he fills out. The southpaw also features a curveball and change-up. In ’09 at low-A ball, Delgado allowed 89 hits in 99.2 innings of work, while showing good control with a walk rate of 2.35 BB/9. He also posted a strikeout rate of 9.39 K/9 and did a nice job of limiting the home-run ball (0.36 HR/9). If he can add some velo and/or improve his ground-ball rate, Delgado could see his numbers improve even more.

Bonus: Erik Cordier, RHP
Highlighted in the ’08 series as a potential breakout candidate after returning from surgery, Cordier struggled with his control in ’09. At high-A ball, the right-hander posted a walk rate of 5.50 BB/9 while allowing 115 hits in 121.0 innings. His strikeout rate was just 6.55 and his stuff has not come all the way back to its pre-surgery form. Although he posted a 3.87 ERA, his FIP was 5.20. Cordier, a former Royals prospect, will hopefully continue to show improvements in ’10.


A Minor Review of ’09: Toronto Blue Jays

Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Graduate: Ricky Romero, LHP
A former top draft pick, Romero finally realized his potential in ’09 after making mechanical adjustments during spring training. The southpaw, who just recently turned 25 years old, gave up a lot of hits (192 in 178.0 innings), but he posted a strikeout rate of 7.13 K/9 and did a nice job of inducing ground balls with a rate of 54%. Romero was not as sharp in the second half of the year, but he also battled some nagging injuries.

The Riser: Tim Collins, LHP
Collins was signed as a non-drafted free agent out of high school because he stands just 5’6” or so. The left-hander can still get his heater into the low 90s, though, and he couples that with a nice curveball. In high-A ball in ’09, the 20-year-old hurler allowed 47 hits in 64.2 innings of work. He struggles a bit with his control (3.90 BB/9), but he posted a strikeout rate of 13.78 K/9 and his rate has never dipped below 10.50 in three seasons. Because of his diminutive size, Collins is likely limited to the bullpen. At worst he should be a Major League loogy, as he posted a 0.95 WHIP against left-handed hitters in ’09.

The Tumbler: Kevin Ahrens, 3B
The Jays’ top pick out of high school in ’07, Ahrens has struggled with his bat throughout his pro career. In ’09, he hit just .215/.282/.302 in 377 at-bats in high-A ball. His .088 ISO will definitely not cut it at third base. His batting line was hindered by his .259 BABIP. Ahrens, a switch-hitter, batted just .212/.287/.283 against right-handers. On the plus side, the prospect is just 20 years old, so time is on his side. Ahrens will most definitely repeat high-A ball in 2010.

The ’10 Sleeper: Carlos Pina, LHP
Pina, a left-handed pitcher, generates a lot of ground balls (69.0%) and he can hit the low-90s with his fastball. The 19-year-old hurler made his North American debut in ’09 and allowed just 46 hits in 51.2 innings of work. He showed good control too, with a walk rate of 2.79 BB/9. The ground-ball pitcher posted a strikeout rate of 6.10 K/9, and that should rise as he improves his command of his entire repertoire, which includes a slider and change-up. Pina’s 1.57 ERA was misleading, as his FIP was 3.39.

Bonus: Brad Emaus, 2B
Highlighted as a sleeper entering ’09, Emaus slipped a bit despite hitting very well in last fall’s Hawaii Winter Baseball league. The second baseman struggled in double-A and posted a line of .253/.336/.376 with an ISO of .123 in 505 at-bats. The 23-year-old infielder did have a reasonable walk rate at 10.5% and his strikeout rate was nice at 13.7%. His overall numbers were definitely affected by a batting average of just .122 in June. Emaus should improve upon his .277 BABIP in 2010, although he could open the season back in double-A.


A Minor Review of ’09: Boston Red Sox

Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

Boston Red Sox

The Graduate: Daniel Bard, RHP
Although Bard did not hit the magical 50 innings-pitched mark to graduate as a rookie, he did spend enough time on the Major League roster to eliminate his rookie eligibility for 2010. The right-hander burst onto the MLB scene in ’09 but then stumbled later in the year. Overall, though, he had an excellent season by allowing just 41 hits in 49.1 innings of work. He also posted a strikeout rate of 11.49 K/9. Bard struggled a bit with his command – a chronic issue – with a 4.01 BB/9. For perhaps the first time, Boston fans have considered life after closer Jonathan Papelbon. The 24-year-old Bard posted a modest 0.8 WAR out of the ‘pen.

The Riser: Dustin Richardson, RHP
Richardson, miscast as a starter, moved to the bullpen in ’09 and found great success. The left-handed pitcher allowed just 42 hits in 63.1 innings of work and posted a strikeout rate of 11.37 K/9. He also made seven appearances in triple-A and made his MLB debut… which is pretty impressive considering how bad his numbers looked in ’08. Out of the ‘pen, Richardson shows an 89-94 fastball and a good slider. He needs to improve his control after posting a walk rate of 5.68 BB/9 and he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher. In his career, he typically fares well against both right-handed and left-handed batters, but he posted a 15.92 K/9 rate against the same-side hitters in ’09. If he can continue to get right-handed batters out, Richardson has the stuff to work as a setup man.

The Tumbler: Michael Almanzar, 3B
Given a huge contract to sign as an international free agent prior to the ’08 season, Almanzar’s offensive numbers have been pretty poor. Luckily for the organization, he’s still just 18 years old. The third baseman hit .207/.261/.293 in 188 at-bats after beginning the year in low-A ball. He was then demoted to short-season ball where he hit .230/.288/.302 in 222 at-bats. The youngster needs a better approach at the plate, with low walk rates and high strikeout rates. He also posted an ISO under .100 on the year. Almanzar has been hurt by low BABIPs in his career, outside of his 23-game stretch in rookie ball in ’08, and he might need a little more focus at the plate with the bases empty (.208 average).

The ’10 Sleeper: Derrik Gibson, SS
A personal favorite of mine, Gibson had a nice first full season in pro ball in ’09. After a solid debut in ’08, the shortstop followed that up in short-season ball with a line of .290/.395/.380 in 255 at-bats. He doesn’t have a lot of power right now (.090 ISO) but he should grow into gap power. Right now, his value lies in his speed, and he stole 28 bases in 33 attempts. Gibson does a nice job of getting on base (13.3 BB%), which is nice to see in such a young player. The 19-year-old infielder also showed a promising strikeout rate at 16.5 K%.

Bonus: Nick Hagadone, LHP
In the ’08 series, Hagadone – who was coming off Tommy John surgery – was highlighted as the sleeper pick for ’09. He was having an encouraging return for Boston, although he was being used cautiously as he worked his way back from the injury. The 23-year-old pitcher made 10 starts in low-A but pitched just 25 innings. He was then traded to Cleveland in a deal for veteran catcher Victor Martinez. Hagadone made seven more starts for his new organization, but again was used sparingly and pitched just 20 innings. Overall, he showed a good fastball but he struggled with his command, which was something that also plagued him pre-surgery. The left-hander walked 24 batters in 45 innings on the year.


A Minor Review of ’09: Washington Nationals

Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

Washington Nationals

The Graduate: Jordan Zimmermann, RHP
A possible Rookie of the Year campaign was ruined for Zimmermann after he underwent Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow. The former second round draft pick was showing good rates: 2.86 BB/9 and 9.07 K/9 when he went down with the injury. He was a little too hittable, though, and allowed 95 hits in 91.1 innings of work. Zimmermann’s line-drive rate was also high at 24.3%. He posted a 1.8 WAR in limited playing time, and the Nationals organization is no doubt hoping to see him in the second half of 2010.

The Riser: Eury Perez, OF
An unknown prior to ’09, Perez had a solid North American debut in rookie ball. The speedy outfielder nabbed 16 bases but was caught eight times, so he has some work to do on the base paths, which is not uncommon for young players. Perez swung a good bat too, with a line of .381/.443/.503, but he was aided but an unrealistic .418 BABIP. He showed OK patience for a 19-year-old and posted a walk-rate of 7.7% and struck out just 11.0% of the time. Perez is definitely someone to keep an eye on; just don’t expect another .446 wOBA.

The Tumbler: Esmailyn Gonzalez, SS
Gonzalez, aka Carlos Alvarez, was at the center of controversy for his fake identity, and just about everyone has forgotten about the .343/.431/.475 line that he posted in ’08 as a supposed 18-year -ld shortstop. Worse yet for the organization, it paid a pretty penny to sign the (formerly) highly regarded international free agent. Alvarez, actually 23 (soon 24), was stuck in the Dominican Republic this past season and hit .280/.423/.427 in 232 at-bats.

The ’10 Sleeper: Adrian Nieto, C
Nieto did not have a great offensive season in his first full year in pro ball, but he showed flashes of potential. Overall in rookie ball, the switch-hitting catcher batted .228/.337/.287 in 136 at-bats and he showed good patience with a walk rate of 12.8%. He will need to get stronger after posting an ISO of just .059. He also needs to hit better against right-handed pitching after posting a line of .194/.267/.262 in ’09. Defensively, Nieto threw out 44% of would-be base stealers.

Bonus: Derek Norris, C
Highlighted as a potential sleeper prospect during the ’08 series, Norris broke out in a huge way in ’09 and is a member of the club’s Top 10 list in ’09. Along with throwing out 36% of runners attempting to steal (and 47% in ’08), Norris showed excellent offensive skills in low-A ball. He does need to improve his receiving and other defensive skills after making 18 errors and allowing 28 passed balls.


A Minor League Review of ’09: Milwaukee Brewers

Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Graduate: Mark DiFelice, RHP
I first stumbled upon DiFelice in ’01 while I was researching potential Rule 5 draft picks. He was in double-A and had posted solid statistical numbers, but further research explained why he was not highly regarded by the Rockies organization (i.e. his modest repertoire). I followed DiFelice over the next eight years (wow, I’m getting old) and was extremely happy when he reached the Majors in ’08. I was even happier for him in ’09 when he became a full-time MLB relief pitcher. DiFelice tosses in a variety of pitches from time-to-time, but he’s a right-hander who relies almost exclusively on a low-80s cutter (throwing it about 82% of the time). It will be fun to see how long DiFelice can keep getting MLB batters out with the one pitch.

The Riser: Josh Butler, RHP
A former Tampa Bay prospect, Butler left college with a fair bit of promise but injuries bit into his career. Finally healthy in ’09, the right-hander pitched at five levels and even made three big league appearances. At high-A, Butler pitched 51 innings, allowed 44 hits and posted a walk rate of 4.06 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 5.65 K/9. In double-A, he allowed 37 hits in 41 innings and posted a walk rate of 2.85 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.24 K/9. In 118.1 combined minor league innings, Butler allowed just four homers thanks in part to a 53% ground-ball rate. He throws a fastball that sits around 90 mph, as well as a curveball, change-up and slider.

The Tumbler: Lorenzo Cain, OF
Cain, 23, had made some real progress between 2006-08, but injuries and ineffectiveness in ’09 erased some of that success. The speedy outfielder stole just three bases (in six attempts) and hit .214/.277/.338 in 145 double-A at-bats. Cain, a right-handed hitter, batted just .182 versus southpaws in ’09. He’ll get a do-over in ’10 and he’s still young enough to realize his potential… Cutting down on the strikeouts (24.1%) would help.

The ’10 Sleeper: Logan Schafer, OF
Schafer had a very solid year for the organization in his first full season in the Majors. A good defender, he improved with the bat and hit .313/.369/.446 in 457 high-A at-bats, and he also received a seven-game trial in double-A. The left-handed batter did well against southpaws with a line of .339/.394/.487 on the season. Schafer posted a 0.72 BB/K rate in high-A and showed modest power with an ISO rate of .133. He has some speed but stole just 16 bases in 24 attempts.

Bonus: Efrain Nieves, LHP
Highlighted as a potential breakout candidate for ’09 during the ’08 minor league review, Nieves made some modest improvements. The southpaw posted a 5.70 ERA in low-A ball and allowed 116 hits in 94.2 innings, but his FIP was just 3.71. He showed OK control for his age with a walk rate of 3.33 BB/9, and he also compiled a strikeout rate of 8.18 K/9. Nieves, who turns 20 on Nov. 15, has a lot of work to do still, but his season was not as bad as it looks on the surface.


A Minor Review of ’09: Tampa Bay Rays

Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Graduate: Jeff Niemann, RHP
It took longer than expected for Niemann to graduate to the Majors, but it was well worth the wait for the Rays. Niemann started off a little slowly, but he gained momentum and finished the season with a WAR of 3.2. In 180.2 innings, the 6’9” right-hander allowed 185 hits while posting a walk rate of 2.94 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.23 K/9. It would be nice to see him improve him ground-ball rate from 40.5% and cut down on the line-drive rate of 20.0%. Niemann could also stand to improve his secondary stuff, as his fastball (7.9 wFB) was really his only consistently above-average pitch in ’09.

The Riser: Wilking Rodriguez
Rodriguez had an excellent North American debut in ’09 at the rookie-ball level. The 19-year-old right-hander allowed just 44 hits in 56 innings of work. He also showed above-average control with a walk rate of 1.93 BB/9. He coupled that with a solid strikeout rate at 8.36 K/9. That rate could improve even more as he sharpens the command of his low-to-mid-90s fastball, curveball and change-up. Rodriguez was helped by a .269 BABIP and left-handed batters struggled against him with an average of .154. The organization will probably be patient with him and move him up to short-season ball.

The Tumbler: Fernando Perez, OF
Perez has never been a top-notch prospect but the speedy outfielder is considered an excellent fourth-outfield prospect. An injury wiped out his ’09 season so his “tumble” really wasn’t a fault of his own. Perez strikes out too much for a player with modest power (.106 ISO at triple-A in ’08), although he does a reasonable job of getting on base via the walk. If he were to play everyday, Perez could reach 30-40 steals. His 0.8 career WAR is tied almost solely to his defensive abilities.

The ’10 Sleeper: Matthew Sweeney, 1B
Obtained from the Angels in the Scott Kazmir deal, Sweeney is a potential steal – especially if he can stay healthy for an extended period of time. The 21-year-old left-handed hitter missed the entire ’08 season and appeared in just 68 games in ’09. He did not show much rust and hit .299/.379/.517 with a .218 ISO in 211 high-A at-bats prior to the trade. The former Angels prospect struggled against southpaws in ’09 with a line of .186/.284/.339. Defensively, Sweeney probably won’t cut it in the Majors as a third baseman, so first base or designated hitter is his likely role.

Bonus: Nick Barnese, RHP
Barnese was highlighted as a potential sleeper candidate during the ’08 series and he graduates to the Top 10 list in ’09 (coming soon). The 20-year-old right-hander spent the year in low-A ball where he missed time with injuries and made just 15 starts. Barnese allowed 56 hits in 74.2 innings of work.