Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

The Graduate: Gordon Beckham, SS/3B
Despite beginning ’09 in double-A, Beckham made a solid run at the Rookie of the Year award in the American League. The shortstop-turned-third baseman hit .270/.347/.460 with an ISO of .190 in 378 at-bats. The right-handed hitter showed a respectable walk rate at 9.8 BB% and a solid strikeout rate at 17.2 K%. Impressively, he did a nice job handling breaking balls as a rookie. Beckham struggled a little bit in the field at third base, but he showed good value with his bat and posted a 2.1 WAR. He could move back to shortstop in 2010.

The Riser: Santos Rodriguez, LHP
Obtained from the Braves in the Javier Vazquez deal, Rodriguez could turn out to be a steal. The hard-throwing reliever has a 90-95 mph fastball, as well as a slider and change-up. In ’09, he allowed just 18 hits in 27 innings of work in rookie ball. The 21-year-old was old for the league but he got three games of experience in low-A ball before the year ended. He needs to improve his control after posting a walk rate of 5.67 BB/9 but his strikeout rate was excellent at 14.00 K/9.

The Tumbler: John Shelby Jr., OF
A former infielder, Shelby has made a successful conversion to the outfield but his bat has taken a step back. He hit just .243/.323/.402 in 428 double-A at-bats. He did show some power with an ISO of .159 (down from .215 in ’08). Shelby Jr. also has some speed and he swiped 30 bases in 39 attempts. He made some strides in his walk rate, which rose from 4.7 to 10.3 BB%. It wasn’t a terrible year for Shelby Jr. but he took hits in both his power and his on-base numbers; he needs to get on-base more consistently to take advantage of his speed. At 24 years of age, time is not on his side.

The ’10 Sleeper: Brent Morel, 3B
With Beckham playing the hot corner in the Majors and prospect C.J. Retherford continuing to perform better than expected, the White Sox suddenly have a lot of depth at the position. Toss in Morel and you can begin to forget the disaster that was Josh Fields. The right-handed hitting Morel had a nice year at high-A in ’09 by hitting .281/.335/.453 in 481 at-bats. He posted an ISO of .173 and stole 25 bases in 34 attempts, giving hope that he could one day become a 15-15 player at the MLB level. Morel will probably never show 20+ home run power consistently but he could develop into a solid Bill Mueller type third baseman.

Bonus: Aaron Poreda, LHP
In the ’08 series, this former No. 1 draft pick was highlighted for a breakout in ’09. Instead, the left-hander had an up-and-down year that saw him make his MLB debut and get traded to the San Diego Padres. Poreda struggled with his control in 14 big league games, and posted a walk rate of 8.78 BB/9. Despite pitching as a starter in the minors, all of his appearances came in relief for both the White Sox and Padres. He’s probably better suited to working out of the bullpen going forward, in the hopes that he’ll become more consistent. It will also allow him to focus on his fastball, which is his best pitch.

Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

The Graduate: Colby Rasmus, CF
It wasn’t the hugely successful rookie debut that many fans had hoped for, but Rasmus laid the groundwork for an excellent MLB career. In his rookie season in ’09, he hit .251/.307/.407 with an ISO of .156 in 474 at-bats. His walk rate was lower than he averaged in his minor league career at 7.1 BB%, but he kept the strikeouts in line at 20.0 K%. He was hurt by a .284 BABIP. Although Rasmus had a negative offensive value in ’09, he more than made up for that with his glove and ended up with a WAR of 2.3.

The Riser: Adron Chambers, OF
The speedy outfielder had a nice year in high-A ball by hitting .283/.370/.400 with 16 triples in 448 at-bats. The left-handed hitter needs to improve his base running after getting gunned down 12 times in 33 attempts. He showed a reasonable walk rate at 9.5 BB% but the strikeout rate was a little high (21.4%) for someone with an ISO .116. Chambers also posted a .600 OPS versus southpaws, compared to .830 versus right-handers. He’s raw, but Chambers has potential as a former 38th round draft pick (2007) out of Pensacola Junior College.

The Tumbler: Adam Ottavino, RHP
A former first round draft pick (2006) out of Northeastern University, Ottavino has had back-to-back disappointing seasons. The right-hander pitched in triple-A in ’09 and allowed 141 hits in 144.0 innings of work. His walk rate rose from 4.06 in ’08 to 5.13 BB/9 in ’09. On the plus side, his batting-average-against dropped from .290 to .258. Ottavino’s fastball ranges from 88-93 mph and he also utilizes a slider, curveball and change-up. His best bet for success in the Majors may be in the bullpen.

The ’10 Sleeper: Tyler Henley, OF
The 24-year-old Henley had some success at double-A in ’09 and he has shown solid overall numbers as a pro. The outfielder hit .303/.367/.482 in 423 at-bats. He also posted a .180 ISO and his strikeout rate was just 15.1 K%. If Henley can start putting a few more fly balls over the fence, then he could potentially see a few years as a Major League starting right fielder. More likely, he’ll be a solid fourth outfielder who can play center well enough to occasionally spell Colby Rasmus.

Bonus: Nick Additon, LHP
Additon was the Cardinals’ sleeper prospect during the ’08 series and he responded with a solid, albeit unspectacular, season. The southpaw allowed 69 hits in 79.1 high-A innings and 36 hits in 48.0 double-A innings. After his promotion, his strikeout rate dropped from 7.49 to 4.88 K/9, but his walk rate improved from 4.20 to 3.94 BB/9. Additon’s control had always been a plus prior to ’09, but it’s risen with each season. His repertoire is modest with an 86-88 mph fastball, slider and change-up.

Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

The Graduate: Rick Porcello, RHP
The 20-year-old right-hander had an outstanding season based on his age and professional experience. He allowed a few too many hits and gave up his fair share of homers, but that’s nitpicking, really. Porcello showed good composure on the mound and produced a 54.2% ground-ball rate. His fastball averaged out at just 90.9 mph and he posted a strikeout rate of a mere 4.69 K/9, but Porcello has the ability to get strikeouts when he needs them. (Ask the Twins.) The sky is the limit for this kid who posted a 1.9 WAR before reaching the legal drinking age in the US.

The Riser: Luke Putkonen, RHP
Putkonen, a third round draft pick out of the University of North Carolina in ’07, had a solid season in double-A this past season. The right-hander allowed 148 hits in 149.1 innings of work, while showing solid control with a walk rate of 2.83 BB/9. He also posted a strikeout rate of 6.93 K/9. Impressively, Putkonen allowed just three homers all year (0.18 HR/9) while pitching in low-A. Although his fastball sits around 90 mph, the 23-year-old gets excellent sink on it and he allowed a ground-ball rate of 57%. He also has a slider, curveball and change-up. Why he spent the entire year in low-A ball at his age is beyond me. Putkonen could settle in as a back-of-the-rotation starter or as a solid reliever.

The Tumbler: Cale Iorg, SS
The Tigers gave Iorg a lot of money to sign for over-slot as a sixth round draft pick in 2007. The club has yet to see much of a return on its investment. The infielder reached double-A in ’09 but he hit just .222/.274/.336 in 491 at-bats. Iorg struck out 30.3% of the time, which is way, way too high for anyone… and especially a hitter with an ISO of .114. He shows some speed on the bases, but he was caught seven times in 20 attempts. Defensively, he makes his share of errors, but Iorg has solid range at shortstop.

The ’10 Sleeper: Melvin Mercedes, RHP
It’s no secret that the Tigers organization likes hard-throwing relievers and Mercedes is just one more in a long line. The right-hander made his North American debut in ’09 in rookie ball, and he flashed an 89-94 mph fastball and an intriguing slider. In 24.2 innings, the 19-year-old allowed just 19 hits and did not give up a homer. His ground-ball rate of 68.9% was awesome, but it was also a small sample size. On the downside, his control needs work as he posted a walk rate of 5.11 BB/9.

Bonus: Brandon Hamilton, RHP
Hamilton was highlighted as a possible breakout candidate during the ’08 minor league review of the system. Unfortunately, the right-hander had a rough year in low-A ball. The 7.09 ERA in 99.0 innings jumps out right away, but he was hurt by bad luck and poor defense; his FIP was 5.15. Hamilton needs to throw more strikes after posting a walk rate of 5.55 BB/9. He showcased an 88-92 mph fastball, a good curveball and a change-up. Hamilton was a supplemental first round draft pick out of an Alabama high school in ’07.

Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

The Graduate: Andrew McCutchen, OF
McCutchen began the year in triple-A but he received his much-deserved promotion after his 49th game in the minors in ’09. He went on to hit .286/.365/.471 with an ISO of .185 in 433 at-bats. The center fielder also stole 22 bases in 27 attempts. For a top-of-the-order-type hitter, McCutchen showed encouraging patience with a walk rate of 11.1%. He’s still learning to hit breaking balls, but he handles MLB fastballs with relative ease (1.47 wFB/C). Defensively, he struggled with his range but he still posted a 3.4 WAR thanks to his offensive contributions.

The Riser: Chase D’Arnaud, SS
D’Arnaud’s younger brother Travis (Philadelphia) was more highly regarded as an amateur, but the elder sibling has performed better than expected in pro ball. Originally considered a utility prospect, D’Arnaud now projects as a possible starter in the middle infield. He split ’09 between low-A and high-A and hit .295/.402/.481 at the senior level. D’Arnaud also shows good patience at the plate (12.5 BB%) and his ISO jumped to .186 in high-A, although most of his strength is gap power right now. He also stole 31 bases in 39 attempts.

The Tumbler: Bryan Morris, RHP
This right-hander’s value has taken a big hit due to injuries and alleged attitude issues. A former top draft pick, Morris struggled with his consistency in ’09 and posted a walk rate of 4.21 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of just 3.96 K/9 in 72.2 innings in high-A ball. He also allowed 87 hits, but gave up just two homers. At this point, the Pirates organization would probably be happy to see Morris make the Majors as a reliever. When he’s right, Morris has shown a plus curveball, change-up, slider and an 88-93 mph fastball.

The ’10 Sleeper: Hunter Strickland, RHP
Obtained from Boston while the organization was dumping veteran contracts, Strickland is still raw as a pitcher but he has tons of potential. He displays plus control with a walk rate of just 1.38 BB/9 in low-A this season. The 21-year-old pitcher did allow a few too many hits (127 in 126.1 innings), and he has yet to develop his secondary pitches to the point where he can rack up a lot of strikeouts (5.51 with Boston, 4.81 with Pittsburgh). Overall, he features an 89-94 fastball, a slider and a change-up.

Bonus: Robinzon Diaz, C
Diaz was highlighted in the 2008 series as the sleeper prospect to watch for ’09. The catcher, who was acquired in ’08 from Toronto, benefited from an injury to starter Ryan Doumit this past season. Diaz hit .279/.307/.357 in 129 at-bats. He displays almost zero power (.078 ISO) and doesn’t walk (2.3 BB%), but he makes a lot of contact (89.7%, league average is 80.5%) and doesn’t strike out either (7.0%). He’s similar to Vlad Guerrero in the sense that he swings – and makes contact – with just about everything. Diaz has made huge strides in his catching over the past few seasons.

Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

The Graduate: Mitch Maier, OF
I’ve been a big fan of Maier since his college days, so I was happy to see him finally get an extended opportunity in KC in ’09. The former college catcher had a modest rookie season with a line of .243/.333/.331. He struggles to hit consistently because he expands the strike zone too much, but he has value to the club because of his versatility, willingness to walk and speed. Maier’s best position is center field, although he can play all three. He’s also played infield positions in the minors and can serve as a third-string catcher. As much as it pains me to say it, Maier will need to show improvement if he hopes to stick around the Majors with KC, especially with the likes of Jordan Parraz and Tim Smith on the way.

The Riser: Jordan Parraz, OF
The acquisitions of players like Parraz could very well help turn the organization around, more so than picking up the Mike Jacobs and Yuniesky Betancourts of the world. Grabbed from Houston prior to the ’09 season, Parraz was a player with some intriguing abilities but things were just not clicking in the Astros system. The outfielder missed some time this past season due to injury, but he hit .358/.451/.553 in 226 double-A at-bats. He also earned a 13-game trial in triple-A. Parraz has the ability to hit a few homers and steal a few bases while getting on base at a respectable rate. Now 25, the Royals prospect has a shot at spending time in Kansas City in 2010, likely as a backup outfielder.

The Tumbler: Johnny Giavotella, 2B
Giavotella did not have a terrible season, but he failed to build on the success he had in his debut season in ’08. The second baseman hit a modest .258/.351/.380 in 476 high-A at-bats… and he was victimized by a .281 BABIP. At 5’8” he won’t generate a ton of power, but he gets on base (12.2 BB%) and he doesn’t strike out much (1.22 BB/K). He needs to improve against right-handed pitchers after hitting just .243/.340/.344. Giavotella also has some speed with 26 steals in 35 attempts in ’09. Defensively at second base, he made 21 errors and showed average range at best.

The ’10 Sleeper: Tim Smith, OF
Smith was obtained late in the ’09 season from Texas, along with Manny Pina, in exchange for disgruntled pitcher Danny Gutierrez. The Canadian outfielder swings a good stick, with a career batting average above .300. Despite battling injuries in ’09, Smith hit .333/.413/.475 in 120 high-A at-bats, and .309/.380/.439 in 139 double-A at-bats. The left-handed hitter batted .279/.346/.397 against southpaws and .337/.409/.490 versus right-handers. He’s not a speed-burner but he’s good on the bases, having stolen 21 in ’08 and 15 (in 17 attempts) in ’09. Smith, 23, does not project to be a star, but he could be a modest everyday player, or a solid fourth outfielder.

Bonus: Jose Bonilla, C
Bonilla was highlighted in the ’08 series as the Royals’ sleeper prospect for 2009. However, things did not go as hoped for the catcher in ’09 as he struggled with the bat in his first taste of full-season ball. Bonilla’s averaged dropped from .357 in rookie ball to .217 in low-A ball, in part because his BABIP went from .412 to .280. The prospect has modest power (.094 ISO), but he struck out at a disappointing rate: 26.2 K%. On the plus side, Bonilla’s walk rate rose from 4.3 to 7.6 BB%. A right-handed hitter, he batted just .178/.219/.256 against southpaws. Defensively, he still allows too many passed balls and his success rate at throwing out runners dropped from 43% in ’08 to 34% in ’09.

A.J. Burnett, the veteran starter with the New York Yankees, has made three post-season starts in 2009. The right-hander has gone from quite good to OK to pretty bad in his three starts, which makes a person wonder just what to expect in Game Two of the World Series. With the Yankees having lost the opening game of the series, this is an important match-up for the top team in the American League. The squad needs to take at least one game at home before heading to Philadelphia for Games Three, Four and Five.

Let’s breakdown Burnett’s best post-season performance — against the Minnesota Twins on Oct. 9 (.205 WPA) — and his worst game — against the Angels on Oct. 22 (-.350 WPA). Hopefully, we can can a feel for what to expect from Burnett in Game Two of the World Series.

Oct. 9 – A.J. Burnett (vs Minnesota)

(Note: __/K means the pitch was a strike a foul ball or put in play; the absence of /K means it was a ball)

1st Inning:
Batter 1: FB/K | CB/K | FB/K (fly out)
Batter 2: FB/K | FB/K (ground out)
Batter 3: FB | FB/K | FB | CB | FB (walk)
Batter 4: CB | FB/K | FB/K | CB/K (strikeout swinging)
Pitches: 5 Balls | 9 Strikes (14 total)

Observations: Burnett had success when he was able to get ahead in the count. The heater was his preferred method of beginning an at-bats.

2nd Inning:
Batter 1: FB | FB/K | FB/K | FB/K (single)
Batter 2: CB/K | CB/K | CB/K (strikeout swinging)
Batter 3: FB/K | CB/K | FB | CB/K (ground out)
Batter 4: FB/K | CB | FB/K | CB/K (ground out)
Pitches: 3 Balls | 12 Strikes (15 total)

Observations: Burnett again went to the fastball to get ahead and utilized his curve as his out-pitch. He was showing enough curveball command to wipe out a fastball-hitter in Delmon Young on three straight curves. Burnett’s nearly unhittable when he’s commanding that curveball.

3rd Inning:
Batter 1: FB/K | FB | FB | FB | FB/K | FB (walk)
Batter 2: FB | FB/K (ground out)
Batter 3: FB/K (fly out)
Batter 4: FB/K | FB/K | CB/K (strikeout looking)
Pitches: 5 Balls | 7 Strikes (12 total)

Observations: Burnett loves the heater but the command of it escapes him at times, usually early in the half-inning after he’s been sitting.

4th Inning:
Batter 1: CB/K | CH/K | CB/K (strikeout swinging)
Batter 2: FB | FB/K (pop up)
Batter 3: CB | FB (hit batter)
Batter 4: CB/K | FB | FB (hit batter)
Batter 5: FB/K (single, runner thrown out at third)
Pitches: 5 Balls | 5 Strikes (10 total)

Observations: Burnett lacked command with the fastball in the fourth inning but instead of taking a couple pitches, the fifth batter swung at the first pitch after watching two players get plunked. He went first-pitch curves to a couple of fastball hitters.

5th Inning:
Batter 1: FB | FB | FB/K | FB/K | CB/K (strikeout looking)
Batter 2: CB/K | CB/K | CB | CB | FB/K (ground out)
Batter 3: FB | FB | FB/K | FB/K | FB | CB (walk)
Batter 4: CB | FB | FB | FB/K | FB (walk)
Batter 5: FB/K | FB | CB/K | CB/K (ground out)
Pitches: 13 Balls | 12 Strikes (25 total)

Observations: The fastball command got away from Burnett and he struggled with just two pitches. He continued to use his curveball against weak breaking ball hitters.

6th Inning:
Batter 1: CB/K (ground out)
Batter 2: CB/K | FB | CB/K | CB | CB | FB/K | FB (walk)
Batter 3: CB/K | FB/K | CB/K (strikeout swinging)
Batter 4: CB | FB/K | FB | CB | FB/K (triple)
Batter 5: FB/K | CB/K (ground out)
Pitches: 7 Balls | 11 Strikes (18 total)

Observations: Burnett still did not have his fastball command in the sixth inning so he relied heavily on the breaking ball by throwing seven of them during his first 11 pitches of the inning.

Overall, Burnett allowed just one run in six innings of work. He gave up three hits and five walks, while striking out six batters. Burnett allowed eight ground balls and three fly balls in the game. Once his ability to command the fastball disappeared, the night was over for the veteran hurler.

Oct. 22 – A.J. Burnett (vs Los Angeles)

1st Inning:
Batter 1: FB | FB | FB | FB/K | FB (Walk)
Batter 2: FB/K | FB/K (Hit)
Batter 3: CB/K (Hit)
Batter 4: FB/K (Hit)
Batter 5: SL(?) | CB | FB/K (Hit)
Batter 6: FB/K | CB | CB/K | CB | CB/K (Fly out)
Batter 7: FB/K | CB/K | CB | CB/K (Double play)
Pitches: 9 Balls | 12 Strikes (21 Total)

Observations: The two first-pitch hits suggest that the hitters were pretty comfortable with the scouting report and Burnett and had a good idea what was coming. Once he was able to get ahead in the count with batters six and seven, Burnett had success. He’s established that he’s trying to pitch off of the fastball and finish hitters off with the curve. The slider is a possibly a show-me pitch, or more likely a misdiagnosed curve.

2nd Inning:
Batter 1: FB | FB | FB/K | FB/K | FB/K (single)
Batter 2: FB/K (double play)
Batter 3: FB/K (fly out)
Pitches: 2 Balls | 5 Strikes (7 total)

Observations: This is a case of the Angels batters being too aggressive. Batter 1 had a nice approach and took some pitches but the second and third hitters both jumped at the first pitches in each at-bat, even though Burnett was on the ropes. The pitcher kept to his game plan and threw first pitch fastballs in all three at-bats.

3rd Inning:
Batter 1: FB | FB/K | CB/K | CB/K (strikeout swinging)
Batter 2: CB | CB | FB/K | CB | CB (walk)
Batter 3: FB/K | FB | FB/K | FB | CB | FB/K (fielder’s choice)
Batter 4: FB\K | FB | FB/K | CB/K | FB/K (fly out)
Pitches: 9 Balls | 11 Strikes (20 total)

Observations: Good things happen when you get ahead in the count. The Angels batters did a nice job of taking some pitches.

4th Inning:
Batter 1: FB/K | FB | CB/K (ground out)
Batter 2: CB/K (fly out)
Batter 3: FB/K | CB\K (double)
Batter 4: FB/K | FB/K | CB/K (ground out)
Pitches: 1 Ball | 8 strikeouts (9 total)

Observations: With all four batters, Burnett threw first-pitch strikes with positive results in three cases. He’s established his ability to throw strikes with two plus pitches. We have yet to see his third pitch. And again we see the pattern of fastballs early in the count and curve balls to close it out.

5th Inning:
Batter 1: FB/K | FB | CB/K | CB/K (strikeout swinging)
Batter 2: FB/K | CB | CB | FB | FB/K (ground out)
Batter 3: FB/K (single)
Batter 4: CB | FB/K (fly out)
Pitches: 5 Balls | 7 Strikes (12 total)

Observations: Burnett goes first-pitch heater with the first three until he gives up a hit. He then switches gears with the curveball.

6th Inning:
Batter 1: FB | CH(?) | FB | FB/K | FB\K | CB/K | FB/K | FB/K | CB/K (strikeout swinging)
Batter 2: FB\K (ground out)
Batter 3: CB/K (ground out)
Pitches: 3 Balls | 8 Strikes (11 total)

Observations: To have a pitcher throw nine pitches to the first batter and then get out of the inning with just 11 thrown is ridiculous. The Angels batters were far too aggressive again. We also see the first changeup from Burnett… perhaps a sign that he’s feeling fatigued? The heater was still touching 96 mph, although not quite as consistently as earlier in the game.

7th Inning:
Batter 1: FB | FB/K | FB/K (single)
Batter 2: FB/K | CB/K | CB | FB | CB | FB (walk)
Batter 3: Pitching change
Pitches: 5 Balls | 4 strikes (9 total)

Observations: First pitch fastballs again, but Burnett was then unable to put away the second batter after getting ahead 0-2.

Overall, Burnett allowed six runs on eight hits and three walks in six-plus innings of work. Two of the runs charged to him scored after he left the game in the seventh inning. He struck out three batters, while inducing 10 ground balls and five fly balls.

Here is what we know: Burnett is going to throw you either a fastball or a curveball. He’s going to try and get ahead with the fastball before finishing batters off with a curve. He tends to stick with the fastball until (a) he gets two strikes, or (b) the hitters start to make contact with the heater on foul balls. If he gives up a hit on the fastball, he tends to come back with a first-pitch curveball in the next at-bat. If Burnett is facing a batter that is a strong fastball hitter but with a weakness for off-speed pitches, then he’ll put the heater in his back pocket.

If Burnett is commanding both the fastball and the curveball, then it’s going to be a long night for the Phillies hitters. However, because he only throws two pitches, the loss of command on just one pitch can cause havoc for Burnett. If his command starts to falter, the hitters must show some patience against the right-hander, which the Angels club failed to do; as a result, they were unable to hammer the final nail in Burnett’s coffin and get into the bullpen. The lefty-heavy Phillies lineup is in tough considering the Yankees pitcher’s regular-season splits (.217/.310/.344 vs left-handed batters, .282/.366/.450 vs right-handed).

The 2008 World Champions are back in the World Series in ’09, but the club faces a huge challenge in the form of the New York Yankees, a club that boasts the largest payroll in Major League Baseball. Both clubs, though, have paid a hefty price for their success and both clubs have benefited from the free agent and trade markets.

In fact, neither Game 1 starter was with their respective teams one year ago. Philadelphia’s Cliff Lee was playing with Cleveland, while C.C. Sabathia signed with New York prior to the ’09 season as a free agent. He began ’08 with The Tribe, but was later traded to the Milwaukee Brewers. The two hurlers were teammates for six-and-a-half seasons, so you can bet each pitcher has given extensive scouting reports to their respective offense.

Both aces have been dominating throughout the season and in the post season:

Regular Season
Sabathia: 3.39 FIP, 7.71 K/9, .233 AVG, 6.0 WAR
Cliff Lee: 3.11 FIP, 7.03 K/9, .273 AVG, 6.6 WAR

Post Season
Sabathia: 2.44 FIP, 7.94 K/9, .210 AVG, 0.79 WPA
Cliff Lee: 1.82 FIP, 7.40 K/9, .169 AVG, 0.86 WPA

Sabathia has dominated opponents with a very good fastball-changeup combination, while mixing in some average sliders. Lee, on the other hand, relies heavily on a good fastball, while mixing an assortment of average pitches and maintaining excellent control. Who has the edge? My gut says New York, mainly because the hitters have, on average, seen a lot more of Lee than Philly has seen of Sabathia.

New York has yet to announce who will pitch in Games Two and Three, but Philly will follow Lee with veteran Pedro Martinez — who has seen a lot of the Yankees during his time in Boston — and the disappointing Cole Hamels. The Phillies club has also activated pitcher Brett Myers for the World Series. The free-agent-to-be was on the NLCS roster, but he was removed for the NLDS. Utility player Miguel Cairo was deleted from the active roster.

Through the nine-game post-season, the hottest hitters for the Phillies have been:
Shane Victorino (.361/.439/.722)
Jayson Werth (.281/.395/.813)
Ryan Howard (.355/.462/.742)
Carlos Ruiz (.346/.500/.500).

The biggest disappointments have been:
Jimmy Rollins (.244/.279/.317)
Pedro Feliz (.161/.212/.355).

In order to repeat as World Champions, Philadelphia will have to get to the Yankees’ top starters, including Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte. In the bullpen, both Mariano Rivera (eight appearances) and Joba Chamberlain (seven) have been overworked in the nine-game post-season. As well, outside of Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez, the offense has been inconsistent. But as any American League fan can tell you, New York’s offense is always one at-bat away from exploding.

Prospect ranking season is just around the corner. In anticipation of that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The popular series is back for a second year.

The Graduate: Felipe Paulino, RHP
Paulino is a perfect example that velocity is not everything. Despite having a heater that averaged out at 95.4 mph in ’09, the right-hander’s fastball value was just -2.36 wFB/C. His curveball and changeup (both of which were used infrequently) were also ineffective. His slider was a quality pitch, but it was easy for MLB hitters to lay off of it because nothing else was working for him. As a result, Paulino was hit hard: 1.84 HR/9 rate and 126 hits allowed in 97.2 innings. He’ll need to improve his repertoire if he’s going to have success in ’10.

The Riser: T.J. Steele, OF
An excellent athlete, there were serious questions about Steele’s hitting ability when he sign out of the University of Arizona in ’08. Lancaster can do wonderful things for an offensive prospect. In 194 high-A at-bats, the outfielder hit .345/.385/.562 in 194 at-bats before injuries wiped out his season. Impressively, Steele trimmed his strikeout rate from 32.1 to 20.6%. Despite getting caught six times in 14 attempts, he has plus speed, and the .216 ISO makes for a dangerous combination (unless that was strictly a result of playing in high-A Lancaster).

The Tumbler: Brad James, RHP
James is one of the more perplexing players in the system. The right-hander has a solid sinker/slider combo, but his sinker has lost effectiveness over the past two seasons. In ’09, James struggled mightily although he still posted a ground-ball rate of 54% and limited line-drives to just 13%. He had trouble finding the plate in ’09 with a walk rate of 5.18%. His strikeout rate of 4.60 K/9 did inspire much hope either.

The ’10 Sleeper: Leandro Cespedes, RHP
On first blush, the 22-year-old right-hander’s numbers do not look overly special. But Cespedes was pitching in Lancaster, which usually destroys young hurlers. His ERA of 5.06 is not terrible for the league but, more importantly, his FIP was just 3.95. He posted a reasonable 3.55 BB/9, but the 28 wild pitches are worrisome. His strikeout rate dropped from 9.48 in ’08 to 7.93 K/9 in ’09. Cespedes survived Lancaster despite a 38.7% ground-ball rate. He has a fastball that touches the low-90s, as well as a splitter and slider.

Bonus: Koby Clemens, C
Clemens was highlighted in the ’08 series as the Astros’ sleeper prospect for ’09 and he made us look smart (playing in Lancaster did not hurt). His ISO jumped from .155 in ’08 to .291 in ’09 and he posted a 1.055 OPS. Clemens also led the minor leagues with 121 RBI. The former third baseman still remains raw behind the plate and he also saw time in left field at Lancaster. Clemens allowed 18 passed balls and threw out just 20% of base stealers. If he keeps hitting like he did in ’09 (which is unlikely), it won’t matter where he ends up in the field.

Prospect ranking season is just around the corner. In anticipation of that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The popular series is back for a second year.

The Graduate: Brian Duensing, LHP
The 26-year-old lefty played a valuable role on the Twins squad in ’09. Duensing served as a swing man by making nine starts and 15 relief appearances. He features four pitches: fastball, slider, changeup and curveball. His most effective pitches in ’09 were his heater, which sat around 91 mph, and his slider. Duensing’s MLB ground-ball rate was just 45.5%, 5 – 10% below what he averaged in the minors, so there is room for improvement there.

The Riser: Loek Van Mil, RHP
Van Mil was about as raw as they come when he was signed out of the Netherlands. The big right-hander, though, has an exciting repertoire that includes a 90-95 mph fastball, slider, changeup and curveball. More than 7’0” tall, he struggles to maintain a reasonable walk rate (4.41 BB/9 in high-A) and his lack of command also hinders his strikeout totals (5.97 K/9). Despite a four-pitch repertoire, Van Mil has been developed as a reliever; his age is catching up to him as he turned 25 after the minor-league season. He has appeared in just eight games above high-A ball. He does, though, have a fresh arm.

The Tumbler: Shooter Hunt, RHP
The 31st overall pick out of Tulane University in the 2008 draft, Hunt has been unable to throw strikes as a pro. The right-hander pitched just 32.2 innings of work in ’09 because he couldn’t find the plate. He walked 58 batters. When he’s right, Hunt has an 89-94 mph fastball, as well as a curveball and changeup. He also produces a solid ground-ball rate. Unfortunately, his control issues are massive, and he has a lot of work ahead of him before he’ll come close to realizing his considerable potential.

The ’10 Sleeper: Angel Morales, OF
Morales has moved slowly through the system, since being drafted out of a Puerto Rico high school in 2007. He reached low-A for the first time in ’09 and had an encouraging season even if his overall line was just .266/.329/.455. The outfielder showed a much improved contact rate and saw his strikeouts decrease from a frightening 39.3% in ’08 to a more manageable 27.7% this past season. Morales also showed his power potential with an ISO rate of .189, and he improved is base running. He has 20-20 potential as he matures as ball player.

Bonus: Wilson Ramos, C
Ramos is certainly a Top 10 prospect, and he was identified as the Twins sleeper during the ’08 series. Injuries took a bite out of his ’09 season, but Ramos still showed a good batting stroke with a line of .317/.341/.454 in 205 at-bats in double-A. He significantly trimmed his strikeout rate from 22.8 to 11.2%. On the downside, his walk rate took a tumble too, from 7.6 to 2.8%. Defensively, he threw out more than 40% of base runners for the third straight season.

The Philadelphia Phillies are headed back to the World Series. On Wednesday night, the Phillies clinched the National League Championship Series (NLCS) title with a 10-4 drubbing of the National League West’s best club. The reigning world champions defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers in five games.

The Dodgers pitching staff was unable to contain what is, arguably, the most potent offense in the National League, which was described in last night’s broadcast as an “American League offense playing in the National League.” On the flip side, Los Angeles struggled to score runs.

Offensive MVP: Ryan Howard
The National League Division Series MVP (according to Fangraphs) repeats as the NLCS champion. In the series, Howard posted WPAs of: .154, .156, .155, .098, and .025 with five runs scored and eight RBI.

Honorable Mention: Shane Victorino
Quiet for the first two games of the series, the Flyin’ Hawaiian posted WPAs of .040, .170, and .086 through the last three games. He scored four runs and drove in six during that three-game span.

Pitching MVP: Cliff Lee
The momentum in the series came dangerously close to shifting after Hamels struggled in Game 1 and then LA came through with a late-game win in Game 2. Lee, though, slammed the door on the LA club with eight shutout innings in Game 3. Other pitchers worth praising for their contributions in the series include Pedro Martinez, Chad Durbin and Brad Lidge.

Let’s break down the series a little more.

What Philly Did Poorly:
Cole Hamels, who is supposed to be Philly’s best pitcher, has looked very ordinary in the post-season. He’s not going to have much luck against New York (assuming that will be the match-up) by throwing 80% fastballs.

It’s nitpicking, but the bench didn’t get much work in the NLCS and they might be called on during some key moments in the World Series.

What LA Did Poorly:
Why did Ronnie Belliard get every start at second base during the playoffs? As Dave Cameron wrote weeks ago, Orlando Hudson is the far superior hitter and fielder – even when he’s not 100% healthy. The feeling was that Belliard has more pop in his bat, thanks to a small-sample size performance after coming to LA… But he failed to get an extra-base hit in the entire post-season. Ironically, Hudson hit a pinch-hit homer in Game 5. And why did Jim Thome only have two at-bats in the NLCS?

I questioned the decision to start Padilla in Game 5… and he looked terrible. In the first inning, 22 of his 23 pitches were fastballs, according to Gameday. Against the Phillies lineup?! The Hiroki Kuroda start was yet another gamble that Torre lost.

As a whole, LA’s veteran hitters were pretty well neutered in the series. Rafael Furcal hit .143, Casey Blake hit .105, Manny Ramirez hit .263 with one extra base hit.

What Philly Did Well:
The pitching staff was able to contain Manny Ramirez, who had his quietest post-season since 1999 with Cleveland. In eight games, Ramirez drove in just four runs and showed little fire (especially compared to the 2007 and 2008 post-seasons).

The offense scored 35 runs in five games. Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino, and Carlos Ruiz were red-hot in the NLCS. Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Jayson Werth were not as consistent, but they all had key hits in the series.

Closer Brad Lidge put a bad regular season behind him and did not allow a run against LA in three games (2.2 innings). He’s 3-for-3 in save opportunities and he’s allowed just one hit in four innings throughout the playoffs.

Cliff Lee was the dominating starter that every team needs to roll through the playoffs. In 24.1 playoff innings (the first post-season of his career), Lee has allowed just 14 hits and three walks. It’s really difficult to give up a big inning if you don’t have men on base.

What LA Did Well:
On offense, Andre Ethier showed why he is one of the best young hitters in the National League – although he hit better in the NLDS than he did in the NLCS. James Loney also had a nice NLCS series.