Prospect ranking season is just around the corner. In anticipation of that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The popular series is back for the second year.

The Graduate: Merkin Valdez, RHP
As Buster Posey will probably tell you in private, there are not a lot of rookies that get a fair shake in San Francisco. Valdez was one of a few rookies that saw “significant” playing time in 2009. The right-handed reliever allowed 57 hits in 49.1 innings of work and posted a walk rate of 5.11 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.93 K/9. A former hard-throwing top prospect, Valdez has had injury problems and his lack of minor-league options meant that San Francisco had to hold on to him all year even though he struggled. With a fastball that sits around 95 mph, Valdez is an intriguing commodity but he needs to improve his secondary pitches (He threw the heater more than 80% of the time).

The Riser: Dan Runzler, LHP
This was a hard pick to make because A) Runzler may sneak onto the back end of the Top 10 list for the organization (I like him a lot) and B) Most of the other risers definitely vaulted themselves onto the Top 10 list. Although he is a middle reliever right now, Runzler could be a very good one. The southpaw has crazy ground-ball rates (60%+ in his career) and his fastball has been sitting around 95 mph in the Majors (7.1 innings). He’s not just a LOOGY, either. Runzler has held lefties to a .189 career batting average and righties are hitting just .181. Don’t count him out as a future closer.

The Tumbler: Nick Noonan, 2B
Noonan did not make a huge tumble in 2009 but the 2007 supplemental first round pick out of a San Diego high school did certainly take a step back. His OPS has dropped from .809 in his debut to .730 in 2008 and .728 this year. He’s also seen his strikeout rate go from 9.7 to 19.6 to 21.1%. As well, he stole just nine bases this year in 14 attempts after nabbing 29 in 2008. With a .136 career ISO, Noonan offers just a little pop and now he’s stopped running, which means he’s a singles hitter that hit just .259/.330/.397 in high-A ball.

The ’10 Sleeper: Hector Sanchez, C
Sanchez made his North American debut in 2009 and held his own with the bat in rookie ball. The 19-year-old catcher batted .299/.403/.410 and showed a good grasp of the strike zone for his age with a walk rate of 12.0% and a strikeout rate of 17.9%. Impressively, though, it’s his defense that gets talked about the most and he threw out 45% of base runners attempting to steal. Like some other Giants we know and love, he needs to watch his weight.

Bonus: Clayton Tanner, LHP
Tanner received some consideration for “The Riser” category before I realized he was listed as the sleeper prospect in the 2008 minor review. The southpaw can be labeled as a soft-tosser, which limits his ceiling to a degree, but the Australian continues to make improvements and have success. Tanner posted a walk rate of just 2.71 BB/9 while repeating high-A ball for the second year.The 21-year-old also increased his strikeout rate over 2008 from 6.46 to 7.82 K/9. In 139.1 innings, he allowed 132 hits but gave up an alarming 18 homers (1.16 HR/9). Tanner needs to work on throwing better quality strikes.

Prospect ranking season is just around the corner. In anticipation of that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The popular series is back for the second year.

The Graduate: Andrew Bailey, RHP
Oakland graduated a ton of rookies in 2009 but Bailey did far more than what was expected of him. Mainly a starter in the minors, Bailey came to the Majors and asserted himself as the club’s go-to guy in the ninth inning. With a handful of games remaining in the season, the right-hander has 26 saves in 30 attempts and has allowed just 49 hits in 81.1 innings of work. He also has a solid walk rate at 2.66 BB/9 and a good strikeout rate at 9.85 K/9. Bailey will certainly be in on the Rookie of the Year discussion.

The Riser: Sam Demel, RHP
Taken out of Texas Christian University as a senior in the third round of the 2007 draft, Demel is on the cusp of pitching in Oakland. He split 2009 between double-A and triple-A. His control is the biggest thing holding him back. Demel posted a 2.76 walk rate in high-A but it jumped to 5.85 BB/9 in triple-A. Overall, he allowed 50 hits in 61.2 innings of work. Demel also has very good ground-ball rates in his career and he has allowed just two home runs all season. His repertoire includes a fastball that can touch the mid-90s, a very good changeup and a slider.

The Tumbler: Brett Hunter, RHP
With a high-90s fastball and a wipe-out slider, Hunter has all the makings to be a dominating closer. He slipped in the 2008 draft because he was dealing with injuries but the A’s got him signed away from his senior year at Pepperdine University after watching him throw well in the summer. Unfortunately after a nice, albeit brief, debut in ’08, his command and his control both deserted him in 2009 in low-A ball. He allowed 38 hits in 47.1 innings of work but posted a walk rate of 11.22 BB/9 (59 walks). The 22-year-old has a big mountain to climb in 2010.

The ’10 Sleeper: Jeremy Barfield, OF
The son of former Blue Jay/Yankee Jesse Barfield, Jeremy has even more raw potential than brother Josh Barfield. Originally selected in the ninth round of the 2006 draft by the Mets, Jeremy went to junior college and eventually signed with Oakland in the eighth round of the 2008 draft. The outfielder has intriguing power potential and he hit well in his debut but slipped a bit in 2009 after playing full-season ball for the first time. Jeremy hit .302/.380/.467 before the All-Star break but just .234/.317/.332 afterward. The right-handed hitter also struggled against southpaws with a batting average of just .228.

Bonus: Andrew Carignan, RHP
Carignan was ranked as the sleeper for Oakland during the 2008 Minor Review series. Unfortunately, the right-handed reliever never had an opportunity to make good on that potential as he was hurt (forearm/elbow) and appeared in just two games all season long. If he can get back on the mound in 2010 with the stuff he showed in 2008, then he still has a chance fulfill his promise as a late-game reliever (likely a set-up man). Carignan biggest need right now is to improve his command/control but the layoff certainly will not help.

Prospect ranking season is just around the corner. In anticipation of that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The popular series is back for the second year. Previously, we looked at the Colorado Rockies.

The Graduate: Everth Cabrera | SS
A Rule 5 draft pick, Cabrera helped to fill a glaring hole in the middle of the diamond with his play at shortstop. Just 22 and with no experience above A-ball prior to 2009, the speedy infielder hit .267/.344/.366 in 358 at-bats. He also stole 24 bases but was caught seven times. He’ll also need to work on becoming more consistent, but that should come with experience. At worst, he looks like a big-league utility player.

The Riser: Sawyer Carroll | OF
There were a number of prospect who really stepped forward this year for the Padres organization but Carroll gets the nod here. He hit for average over three levels and his combined line on the year was .317/.413/.489 with 40 doubles in 479 at-bats. As a right-fielder, Carroll could stand to increase his power output (eight homers) but the .171 ISO is a step in the right direction. His plate rates were very nice with an 18.0% walk rate and a 19.5% strikeout rate. The 23-year-old left-handed batter has hit very well against southpaws in his short pro career, including .333/.423/.500 in 2009.

The Tumbler: Allan Dykstra | 1B
It came down to a coin flip between Dykstra and Kellen Kulbacki, but the former won out because the latter’s season was ruined by injury. Dykstra was the club’s No. 1 draft pick in 2008 but he’s struggled since entering pro ball and he was less-than-impressive in low-A in 2009. His line of .226/.397/.375 was just plain bad, although his walk rate of 20.2% was eye-popping. He may have actually been a little too passive at the plate for his own good. Dykstra hit just .204 with the bases empty versus .249 with runners on base. Despite the bad numbers, the 22 year old should move up to the California League in 2010. It’s a league that tends to inflate hitters’ numbers.

The ’10 Sleeper: Nick Schmidt | LHP
You have to feel sorry for Schmidt, who was cursed the moment he was taken as a first-round draft pick by the organization. He missed the 2008 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He opened 2009 in low-A ball where he dominated (as he should have given his age and experience level). He allowed just 38 hits in 51.2 innings of work and posted a strikeout rate of 10.28 K/9. His walk rate was poor at 4.01 BB/9 and it suggested that he might struggle at higher levels. That is exactly what happened when he moved up to high-A. Schmidt posted a walk rate of 5.06 BB/9 and his strikeout rate dropped to 5.06 K/9. He allowed 68 hits in 48 innings. Control is the last thing to come back after surgery, so Schmidt stands a good chance of improving in 2010.

Bonus: The ’08 sleeper was Eric Sogard. He had another underrated season, this time in double-A where he hit .293/.370/.400 in 457 at-bats. The left-handed batter doesn’t hit southpaws well (.214 in ’09) and he’s not a great defensive player so he’s likely headed for a career as a platoon or utility player.

Prospect ranking season is just around the corner. In anticipation of that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The popular series is back for the second year.

The Graduate: Seth Smith | OF
He didn’t get 130+ at-bats in 2008, which is the amount needed to eliminate his rookie status, but Smith did spend more than 45 days with the club prior to roster expansion on Sept. 1. That means he was technically no longer a rookie in 2009. However, we’ll give him some props since most people didn’t realize he lost his eligibility last season. Teammate Dexter Fowler also had a nice season in Colorado, but Smith’s line of .297/.383/.520 in 323 at-bats was an unexpected bonus. He also showed solid plate rates with a 12.5% walk rate and a 19.2% strikeout rate. Yeah, he plays in Colorado but an ISO of .223 is still mighty impressive. It’s also rare for a 26-year-old player to be a reliable bat off the bench.

The Riser: Juan Nicasio | RHP
The Rockies organization is known for effectively mining talent in Venezuela but Nicasio could be a steal for the club out of the Dominican Republic. A little old for a Latin player in low-A ball, the right-hander is a late-bloomer who allowed 110 hits in 112 innings of work. Nicasio also posted a walk rate of 1.85 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.24 K/9. His ERAs were a little high in his previous two seasons (both in short-season leagues) but he has posted three solid FIPs: 3.75, 2.40, 2.57. His repertoire includes a low-90s fastball that touches 95-96 mph, as well as a slider and changeup.

The Tumbler: Joseph (Tyler) Massey | OF
The Rockies organization handed Massey some big cash to sign as a 14th round selection out of a Tennessee high school. He was young in 2009 (19) and played in full-season ball but more was expected than a line of .220/.261/.290 with just 19 extra base hits in 404 at-bats. Given that he projects to be a corner outfielder or first baseman, the .069 ISO is disappointing. Massey will be given a do-over in 2010, as he was obviously overwhelmed by the speed of professional baseball games.

The ’10 Sleeper: Radames Nazario | SS/3B
Nazario, 22, has been kicking around the Rockies system for a few years now with modest results (in part due to injuries), but he showed some signs of life in high-A. At 6’0 165 lbs, he needs to get stronger to weather the long season. He hit .287/365/.422 in the first half of the year but just .167/.220/.235 after the All-Star break. Twenty-seven of Nazario’s 89 hits were doubles, so he currently possesses gap power. With a little more meat on his bones, his ISO of .116 should climb.

BONUS: The ’08 sleeper was Eric Young Jr. and he’s finally getting the recognition that he deserves after some solid minor-league seasons. I won’t say much else because he will be on the Rockies’ Top 10 list.

With his recent promotion to the Majors, there have been a lot of questions being asked about the Cubs’ outfield prospect Tyler Colvin. The Clemson University product was originally selected by Chicago in the first round of the 2006 draft. He was chosen 13th overall, even though some teams did not have him in the mix for a Top 100 selection.

The Cubs organization thought enough of his athleticism to bypass other players such as Travis Snider (Toronto), Kyle Drabek (Philadelphia), Hank Conger (LAA), and Daniel Bard (Boston). But the club did not have second, third, or fourth round picks and it obviously felt he would not be there in the fifth round, where the club selected Jeff Samardzija.

Colvin’s early minor league numbers were OK on the surface but he did not excel in any one area. He hit for a respectable average in 2007 while splitting the year between high-A and double-A but it became clear that his approach was not going to work in the upper levels of the minors and the Majors.

That year, Colvin walked just 3.9% of the time in high-A (245 at-bats) and 2.0% in double-A (247 at-bats). His average remained OK, in part due to strong BABIPs of .356 and .342. Colvin was then left in double-A in 2008 to work on his game plan at the plate. He batted an uninspired .256/.312/.424 in 540 at-bats. His walk rate rose to 7.5%.

The organization demoted the now-24-year-old outfielder to high-A to begin 2009 to not only continue working on his approach but also to continue his rehab from elbow surgery, as one reader pointed out. Colvin hit just .250 with an OPS of .683 in 32 games, but the walk rate hit double digits for the first time in his career at 10.4%. He was then promoted to double-A (His third shot) for the remainder of the minor league season. He hit .300/.334/.524 with a walk rate of 5.0% in 307 at-bats.

It’s pretty clear that Colvin is what he is: A fringe starting outfielder with average usable power who doesn’t get on-base enough, and who has limited interest in stealing bases despite having above-average abilities on the base paths. He might luck into a few seasons where he’ll produce a solid batting average, but it probably won’t be the norm.

The Cubs took a gamble on Colvin in the 2006 draft, but it looks like a swing-and-a-miss as a No. 1 pick. That said, he could still be a useful MLB player… and he’d be getting better press if he had gone to the Cubs in the third or fourth round.

It’s Friday and I feel like doing something a little bit different this morning. If you read my stuff even on a semi-regular basis then you probably know that 90% of my writing is about minor league baseball, prospects and rookies. One of my favorite things to do is surf the ‘net to see what other prospect scribes are saying or doing. So, let’s give a shout out to some of the best in the business.

Baseball America
This publication is the King of Prospect Analysis. Working like a well-oiled machine, Baseball America makes use of a large staff of insightful and passionate baseball writers, which helps it cover every avenue of minor league baseball, as well as college and high school baseball. The staff has taken a number of hits over the years as other larger companies have stolen some of the writers, but The Big Three remain the same at the top of the chart: Will Lingo, John Manuel, and Jim Callis. Callis is probably the best-known writer as he does a weekly chat for ESPN.com and also helps cover the amateur draft for Major League Baseball’s draft-day television coverage. I am also a particular fan of the work done by Ben Badler, Matt Eddy, and Aaron Fitt. I’ve really enjoyed Nathan Rode’s work as of late. Right now BA is producing Top 20 lists for every league in Minor League Baseball beginning with the Gulf Coast League.

Keith Law at ESPN.com
Perhaps the most entertaining baseball personality on the Web, Law is a well-educated prospect analyst who entertains me to no end with his (usually) weekly chats. He brings an interesting perspective after spending time as an assistant general manager with the Toronto Blue Jays, and he obviously has some scouting education/experience. Law also does good work on the amateur baseball draft. The only knock I have on his work is that there is not enough of it. I’d love to see him do even more… like The Klaw Top 10 lists. Feel free to ask him a question during one of his chats… and don’t worry… if it’s a stupid question, he’ll let you know.

Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus
Goldstein is the main reason why I have a subscription at BP.com… and so I can read Eric Seidman’s weekly analysis. Goldstein is a former Baseball America staffer who has made good on a solo career. His annual Top 11 Prospects lists are a must-read for every minor-league fan; he has connections in the industry that would make you drool. The weekly Monday Ten Pack is a great way to start the week, and his new daily Minor League Update has been the best thing to happen to BP.com since Mr. Seidman arrived. The only downside to his work is the aforementioned subscription.

John Sickels at Minor League Ball
Sickels is probably not as widely known as the Laws and the Goldsteins of the baseball world, but he has been around for a long time and you’ve probably read his stuff as some point or another. A glance over to my baseball bookcase shows a Stats Inc. 2001 Minor League Scouting Notebook that Sickels wrote. He did a bunch of them before branching out onto his own. Sickels does his own website, he contributes to Rotowire.com, and he publishes his own prospect annual called The Baseball Prospect Book. Be sure to order the 2010 version when it’s available.

Lisa Winston and Jonathan Mayo at MiLB.com
One of the best things to happen to the minor leagues and prospect coverage has been the growth of the official site of Minor League Baseball. On the downside, I think so much more could be done with the type of revenue that is being generated by MLB.com and MiLB.com… Each minor-league system should have at least one full-time reporter devoted to it with massive amounts of material written for each one on a daily basis. That hasn’t happened yet, but we do have Winston and Mayo. Of particular value is the work that they do leading up to the draft, as well as their annual organizational previews and reviews.

Is there anyone else out there that you read on a regular basis?

The Chicago Cubs club has been one of the most active organizations when it comes to signing amateur talent out of Korea. This year, the Cubs received better-than-expected results from shortstop Hak-Ju Lee.

The 18-year-old infielder showed an advance approach at the plate for his age. He hit .330/.399/.420 in 264 at-bats. Lee posted a more than respectable walk rate of 10.5 BB% and a reasonable strikeout rate of 18.9 K%. He also had 25 steals in 33 attempts. Lee was incredibly consistent, hitting .300 in each month of the year, and he also hit more than .300 against both right-handed and left-handed pitchers.

Defensively, Lee showed excellent range at shortstop, but he made 27 errors in 61 games. Many young fielders – even those that go on to win Gold Gloves – struggle with errors in the low minors, so there is little to be concerned about; it’s more important to dwell on the range he exhibited. Lee is also still working his way back from Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow.

Pitcher Dae-Eun Rhee, 20, has perhaps even more potential than Lee, as he was ranked as the Cubs’ 4th overall prospect entering 2009, according to Baseball America, even though had Tommy John surgery after just 10 pro starts in 2008. Rhee had an impressive debut in ’08 when he allowed just 28 hits in 40 low-A ball innings. He also posted a walk rate of 3.60 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.43 K/9. Rhee did not give up a home run. When healthy, he’s shown an 88-93 mph fastball, a plus changeup and a good curveball.

There are two other Korean players worth keeping an eye on in the Cubs organization, and both were signed along with Lee in 2008. Right-handed pitcher Su-Min Jung, 19, was treated with baby gloves in his debut season in ’09. He made two shutout appearances in rookie ball (three innings) before moving up to short-season ball. Jung allowed 23 hits in 24.2 innings of work, while also posting a walk rate of 4.01 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.20 K/9. He showed some rough edges with a home-run rate of 1.46 HR/9 (despite a solid ground-ball rate) and a FIP of 5.63.

Outfielder Jae-Hoon Ha made his debut in ’09 at the Cubs’ short-season affiliate. The 18-year-old prospect hit .242/.264/.327 with a walk rate of 2.4 BB% and a strikeout rate of 12.5 K%. The numbers are certainly not exciting, but the right-handed hitter was young for the league, he was adapting to the North-American lifestyle, and his BABIP was just .270.

Ground-ball rates are rather trendy right now in Major League Baseball, and for good reason. If you can find pitchers with high strikeout rates, as well as high ground-ball rates, then you have a real keeper on your staff. The rational behind the love of the ground ball is pretty simple. If a ball is hit on the ground it’s pretty hard for it to leave the park for a three-run homer.

With enough innings to qualify (He pitched 61.1 innings before being shutdown to protect his arm), the Blue Jays’ Marc Rzepczynski would rank 13th in the Major Leagues in ground-ball rate, sandwiched between Josh Johnson of the Marlins and Mike Pelfrey of the Mets. The Giants’ Daniel Runzler has a ground-ball rate of 50%, albeit it in a very small sample size of just 5.2 innings (seven appearances).

Both Rzepczynski and Runzler have something in common. They were both selected in the 2007 amateur draft and both players were taken out of UC Riverside. In his minor league career spanning parts of three seasons, Rzepczynski had a ground-ball rate of 63.8%, which is 2.4% better than current MLB leader Joel Pineiro’s 61.4%. Runzler has a career minor-league rate of 62.8%.

In the past six drafts (2004-09), 17 pitchers have been selected out of UC Riverside. Prior to the 2007 draft, the most notable pitchers out of the six taken were Anthony Claggett (drafted by the Tigers and traded to the Yankees), and Daniel Stange (drafted by the Diamondbacks). Neither pitcher has an overly impressive career ground-ball rate.

Then comes the 2007 draft. Along with Rzepczynski and Runzler, James Simmons (Athletics) and Adam Reifer (Cardinals) were also drafted. Both pitchers have struggled more than their former teammates, but they continue to have potential as both pitchers made their clubs’ Top 30 prospect lists prior to 2009 (according to Baseball America).

Since being drafted, Simmons’ ground-ball rates have actually declined each year, which could very well be one of the reasons why he’s struggled to live up to being selected 25th overall in ’07. His repertoire, minus the worm-burning, is pretty average. Reifer had a dazzling first full season in pro ball in 2008 but he struggled mightily this season. His ground-ball rate dropped 15% – and he also lost 3.0 K/9 off of his strikeout rate.

In 2008, two more pitchers – both relievers in pro ball – were selected out of UC Riverside, although Robert Waite (Tigers) was the highest drafted player in the 17th round. Stephen Penney was also selected and signed with Seattle. Waite’s career ground-ball rate is 54.5%, and Penney’s is 54.9%.

Five more players were selected in 2009 and three of those pitchers also displayed solid ground-ball rates in their debuts: Joe Kelly (Cardinals, 56.4 GB%), Paul Applebee (Nationals, 40.6%), Matt Montgomery (Marlins, 64.7%), Paul Bargas (Rockies, 38.8%), and Ryan Platt (Brewers, 54.4%).

Perhaps it’s a coincidence that many UC Riverside pitchers have shown the ability to induce an above-average number of ground balls. Then again, maybe it’s not by chance and the school’s coaching staff is on to something. Either way, UC Riverside alums should be followed over the next few seasons – especially if ground-ball rates continue to gain in popularity.

Toronto Blue Jays prospect J.P. Arencibia has had quite an interesting baseball career – both as an amateur and a pro. The catcher tied Alex Rodriguez‘ high-school mark for most career home runs at Westminster Christian high school in Florida. He was also a star player at the University of Tennessee, which led to him being selected 21st overall in the 2007 draft as the second college backstop taken; Matt Wieters went fifth overall to Baltimore.

A year after signing, Arencibia had a breakout year at the plate. He spent the season split between high-A and double-A with a combined triple-slash line of .298/.322/.527 with 27 homers and 105 RBI. It was the second-best offensive season for a catcher in 2008 behind… Wieters. Fast-forward to September 2009 and Wieters is playing behind the dish for Baltimore, while Arencibia has packed it in for the season and is probably back home in Florida. So what went wrong for the Jays prospect?

It can be tied to his approach at the plate, or more specifically, his walk rate. Even during his star campaign in 2008, Arencibia’s rate was 4.2% at high-A and just 2.6% at double-A. His strikeout rates were 18.5% and 21.0%. In 2009 at triple-A Las Vegas, his walk rate was 5.3% and his strikeout rate was 24.5%. With his power (.200+ career ISO), the whiff rate is reasonable. The walk rate, though, is not acceptable on any level. Overall in 2009, the right-handed hitter managed a line of just .236/.284/.444 with 21 homers in 466 at-bats.

Advanced pitchers (but many of whom are not good enough to pitch long-term in the Majors) exploited Arencibia’s approach. It’s pretty clear that there is no point in throwing him a quality strike with less than two strikes. He makes Mr. First-Pitch-Swinging Vernon Wells look down right selective. Ahead in the count, Arencibia hit .298, no doubt because pitchers had to groove a fastball down the middle of the plate. His strikeout rate was 13% in that situation. Behind in the count, Arencibia hit .185 with 63 Ks and zero walks in 162 at-bats (for a K rate of 32%).

Whereas Arencibia’s value has diminished as a hitter, his defense has actually improved significantly to the point where he is considered an above-average defensive catcher. When he was drafted, there were questions about whether or not he’d be able to stick as a catcher. Prior to the 2009 draft, Baseball America stated, “The verdict is out on whether he’ll stay behind the plate as a pro. His receiving skills are rudimentary at best, and his footwork prevents him from getting off better throws despite solid-average to plus arm strength.”

This excerpt is from the Las Vegas Review-Journal:

[Arencibia] has thrown out 33 percent of runners attempting to steal (20 of 61) since starting this season by gunning down just five of 31.

“Now I’m getting respected as a defensive catcher,” said Arencibia, who often throws out runners from his knees. “I feel I’m throwing better than I’ve ever thrown, and all aspects of my defense have gotten better.”

[Las Vegas] 51s manager Mike Basso, Toronto’s catching instructor the past two years and a former pro catcher, has worked extensively with Arencibia and said he has made great progress this season.

“He’s improved leaps and bounds from last year,” Basso said. “He has done a good job behind the plate, and he’s had spurts where he’s done good offensively.

As with most of the other 2009 Prospect Duds highlighted over the past two weeks, 2010 will be a big year for Arencibia. Once considered an offense-only prospect, he has the potential to be an all-around stud if he can learn from his mistakes. It’s been suggested more than once that he has been hesitant to change his aggressive ways, but that was before his struggles in 2009. If he can get that walk rate up to even 8-9%, the impact on his other numbers could be significant.

It’s not uncommon for prospects to receive more hype than they are worth, and Dayan Viciedo was one of those players in 2009. The Cuban defector came into the 2009 season as the No. 2 prospect in the Chicago White Sox system, according to Baseball America. He was also ranked by Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus as the No. 4 overall prospect in the system.

In the 2009 Prospect Handbook, Baseball America stated, “Viciedo has the power to hit 40-plus homers in a season, thanks to a quick swing that’s triggered by strong wrists… He’s an aggressive hitter who will chase bad pitches… Viciedo has a high ceiling but brings a bigger risk than the more experienced and athletic [Alexei] Ramirez.”

Knowing little about Viciedo – aside from the circulating scouting reports – I was cautious with my assessment of him last winter by stating, “Only 20, Dayan Viciedo will not step right in to the Major League roster like fellow Cuban Alexei Ramirez did last season. The third baseman will likely begin his career in High-A ball and could move up to Double-A around mid-season if the hype surrounding him is somewhat justified. He has plus-power potential, but there are concerns about his conditioning and drive.”

Viciedo earned a spot on the double-A squad in 2009 and hit .280/.317/.391 with 12 homers in 504 at-bats. His .111 ISO was a far cry from the projected 40-homer power. As well, his walk rate of 4.4 BB% left something to be desired. His strikeout rate was reasonable at 17.7 K%, especially if he does develop at least 20+ homer power.

Viciedo’s .692 OPS versus right-handed pitchers is cause for concern, as are the scouting reports that focused more and more on his lack of conditioning, which no doubt hindered him at the plate, as well as in the field. He showed worse range than Oakland’s Brett Wallace, widely considered to be a first baseman playing third base (especially based on his range). Unfortunately for Viciedo, he has yet to display enough power to be an asset at first base, and he lacks the mobility for even left field. The Cuban also performed poorly in a small sample size as the designated hitter in double-A, which could be a result of his focus issues.

It’s a good thing that Viciedo is just 20 years old. He has a lot of work to do – beginning off the field this winter. It is imperative that the Cuba native get into better shape, as well as an improved mindset, for the 2010 season. The sky remains the limit for Viciedo, but his takeoff was more than a little bumpy.