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2009 Prospect Duds: Engel Beltre

Engel Beltre entered 2009 as the seventh-best prospect, according to Baseball America, in a very deep Texas Rangers minor league system. The five-tool outfielder was originally given a large contract by the Boston Red Sox to sign as a non-drafted amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic. Beltre was sent to Texas in the trade for reliever Eric Gagne in 2007.

Oozing with tools, he hit .283 with 31 steals at low-A in 2008 as an 18 year old, which excited some prospect evaluators – especially those that all but ignore statistics and prefer to focus on projection based on what they observe. However, Beltre’s 15 walks in 566 at-bats (2.66 BB%) were a huge red flag for some, myself included. Prior to the 2009 season, I stated, “…His plate discipline is terrible… That approach is obviously not going to cut it at the upper levels of the minors, or the Majors, but Beltre is just 19-years-old and has plenty of time to improve the rougher aspects of his game.”

Youthful aggression is one thing; a sub-3.0 BB% is a whole other ball game. On the plus side, unlike someone like Seattle’s Greg Halman, Beltre’s pitiful walk rate was not coupled with an outlandish strikeout rate. The Texas prospect’s strikeout rate was 18.6 K%, which (kind of, sort of) eased some of the worry. Here is what Baseball America had to say about him pre-2009, “He’s a free swinger who must improve his patience and pitch selection… Beltre remains raw but his development is well ahead of schedule and his upside is enormous. Down the road, he could be a five-tool superstar center fielder.”

Well, that definitely did not happen in 2009. Still a teenager at 19, Beltre hit .227/.281/.317 in 357 at-bats in high-A for an OPS of .598. A BABIP of .282 certainly did not help, but his walk rate remained far too low at 4.5 BB% and his strikeout rate rose a bit over 2008 to 21.6 K%. Along with his terrible plate approach, the left-handed hitting Beltre cannot hit southpaws. He hit just .209/.254/.306 against them in 2009 and also posted a line of .220/.257/.262 in 2008. For some reason, the organization decided to give Beltre a late-season taste of double-A but he hit just .071 (1-for-14) in four games after coming back from a broken hamate bone.

There is no doubt that Beltre has some impressive tools. Unfortunately, many a prospect has disappeared in the bowels of obscurity despite as much – or more – raw talent. Beltre should definitely return to high-A ball in 2010 and remain there until he makes some adjustments with his approach.


2009 Prospect Duds: Andrew Brackman

You know a player is talented when he is ranked as an organization’s third best prospect despite not throwing a pitch in his entire pro career spanning two years. The Yankees’ Andrew Brackman was highly regarded coming off of his collegiate career at North Carolina State University. Despite focusing on two sports for much of his college career (baseball and basketball), the 6’10” Brackman made huge strides from a developmental standpoint and posted solid numbers in his junior year after focusing solely on baseball.

As Baseball America – the publication that ranked Brackman as the third best prospect in the system – stated prior to the ’07 draft, “Now a legitimate 6-foot-10, 240 pounds, his upside is considerable… He’s still unrefined, but even without the polish, Brackman shouldn’t slide out of the top 10 picks.”

Unfortunately for Brackman, he suffered an elbow injury that same year and questions about his health dropped him out of Top 10 consideration in the 2007 amateur draft. Undeterred, and ecstatic to get such a quality talent with the 30th overall pick, the Yankees organization grabbed the Ohio native and handed him a $4.55 million guaranteed contract with incentives that could push the deal to as much as $13 million. Immediately after the draft, though, the organization had Brackman undergo Tommy John surgery on his wonky elbow.

That surgery caused the big righty to miss his debut season in 2007, as well as the entire 2008 season. With a strong off-season between ’08 and ’09, Brackman was finally ready to go for the 2009 season and his debut was eagerly anticipated – but with some trepidation. As Baseball Prospectus stated pre-2009, “…To paraphrase Casey Stengel, Brackman has it in his body to be great, but whether or not he will be is anyone’s guess.”

The year started off well for Brackman as he allowed 28 hits in 25.2 innings of work in April. He walked just 11 batters and struck out 26. Things began to fall apart in May (despite the 2.45 ERA). He allowed just 24 hits in 33 innings but walked 21 to go along with 27 strikeouts. He completely fell apart in June and July by allowing 41 hits and 33 walks in 28 innings. Placed in the bullpen for August and September, Brackman recovered to allow 17 hits and 11 walks in 20 innings.

Overall in 2009, he ended his first season with 106 hits in 106.2 innings of work. The biggest downside was obviously the walk total, as he posted a walk rate of 6.41 BB/9. His strikeout rate was good at 8.69 K/9 and he did a respectable job of keeping the ball in the park with a homer rate of 0.68 HR/9. Brackman’s numbers were much better when he came out of the bullpen, which is likely a result of needing to improve his stamina, as well as his secondary pitches. He was, after all, injured and unable to pitch for a year and a half. Prior to the injury he was a two-pitch pitcher with a mid-to-high-90s fastball and a plus curveball. Both pitches showed some rust post-surgery.

In reality, Brackman’s season really wasn’t that bad, especially if you ignore the ERA (His FIP was 4.66). Yes, he was old for the league and did not dominate, but he was raw for his age coming into pro ball and his control has always been issue. The 2010 season will be a big one for Brackman, who will be 24. Luckily for him, he’s in an organization that can afford to be patient. The bullpen may be the best spot for the right-hander, but he needs innings so he’ll likely remain a starter. It’s been well documented that Brackman has considerable upside if everything clicks, and that belief remains true. But there aren’t many bigger gambles in baseball.


2009 Prospect Duds: Lars Anderson

Boston Red Sox first base prospect Lars Anderson entered 2009 as the top overall prospect in the system, according to Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus. Anderson, 21, had originally been signed to an over-slot deal after being selected out of high school in the 18th round of the 2006 amateur draft.

In pre-2009 comments, Goldstein stated, “He projects for big numbers in all triple-slash categories, and should come lumbering into the middle of the Boston lineup by 2010.”

I was even more aggressive in my adoration of Anderson prior to 2009 and said, “Lars Anderson is the club’s top prospect and he could be knocking on the big-league door by mid-2009… He had an impressive walk rate of 17.9 BB%, but struck out at a rate of 32.3 K%.”

Interestingly, it wasn’t Anderson’s strikeout rate that doomed his 2009 season. It actually dropped from 32.3 K% in 133 double-A at-bats in 2008 to 25.5 K% this season. His walk rate was lower, but it remained more than respectable at 12.4 BB%. The most glaring drop was in the batting average. It dipped from .317 in high-A/double-A in 2008 to .233 in double-A in 2009. His BABIP played a huge part in the shift as it went from .367 (A+) and .435 (AA) to .293. His line-drive rate went from 19.9% (cumulative) last year to 13.0% in ’09.

It’s clear that Anderson’s small sample size numbers at double-A in ’08 (.316/.436/.526 in 133 at-bats) helped to gloss over the impact that the launching-pad-known-as-Lancaster had on his numbers (.921 OPS). That success may have very well buoyed his confidence for his late-season promotion. Even so, a .250 drop in OPS is shocking to the system. After slugging five homers in 133 double-A at-bats in 2008, Anderson hit just nine all year in ’09 in 447 at-bats. His ISO dropped from .200 to .112.

The good news is that Anderson’s plate rates held strong despite his struggles. His pre- and post-All-Star numbers are so different that it’s easy to speculate that a hidden injury may have been the root cause for the steep decline (.272/.366/.413 vs .154/.250/.208). The really good news is that Anderson played the season at the age of 21, so he has plenty of time to turn things around. Incumbent first baseman Kevin Youkilis or even Casey Kotchman can easily hold down the fort until the youngster is ready. He’ll just have to watch over his shoulder for Anthony Rizzo.


2009 Prospect Duds: Mark Hallberg

Infielder Mark Hallberg entered the 2009 season as the fourth-best prospect in the Arizona Diamondbacks system, according to Baseball America. The 23-year-old hitter was originally selected by the organization in the ninth round of the 2007 draft. According to Baseball America pre-2009, “Hallberg is an organization favorite because he’s polished and has few holes in his game. He understands his game and carries out a plan everyday…”

Looking back on my pre-season report on the Arizona Diamondbacks system, “Hallberg is a middle infielder who knows how to hit. His advanced approach has helped him reach high-A ball in just his first full season… Hallberg controls the strike zone well, but he lacks power and speed, which will likely push him to a part-time role in the Majors.”

Hallberg missed a good chunk of the 2008 season thanks to an injury but he still hit .283/.357/.368 with a walk rate of 9.9% and a strikeout rate of just 10.3% in 272 at-bats. He also played well in the now-defunct Hawaii Winter Baseball league.

However, the momentum did not carry over into 2009. Promoted to double-A, Hallberg hit just .257/.325/.323 with similar plate rates in 455 at-bats. The shortstop’s OPS dropped for the third straight season from .848 to .725 to .648. His ISO went from .150 to .085 to .066. On the plus side, he suffered with a low BABIP at .280 and he had a healthy line-drive rate at 18%.

Hallberg certainly slumped in 2009 and he’s currently no threat to the enigmatic Stephen Drew, the Diamondbacks’ incumbent shortstop. Perhaps sensing that, the organization ensured that Hallberg saw ample playing time at both second base and shortstop, with some third-base action thrown in for good measure.

The former No. 4 overall prospect in the system has a long way to go to reclaim his former title. At this point, he needs to add a little more oompf to his bat to even make it as a big-league utility player. The lack of middle infield depth in the system certainly works in his favor. Hallberg will likely head back to double-A Mobile to begin the 2010 season.


Looking Ahead to 2010

The 2009 season is winding down and we’re currently being treated to some expanded-roster action in September. As such, let’s take a look at a few hitters that could make 2010 opening day rosters for their respective teams. The players that make up this quartet do not have the highest ceilings – and probably won’t challenge for the 2010 Rookie of the Year award – but even complementary players have value in Major League Baseball (despite what fantasy baseball teaches us).

Chris Pettit: Even with Bobby Abreu and Vlad Guerrero headed for free agency, the Angels’ outfield is still pretty crowded but Pettit could sneak his way in to some significant playing time next year. The 25-year-old outfielder stumbled in 2008 but he regained his footing this season with a solid triple-A campaign in which he hit .321/.383/.482 with 30 doubles and 18 steals in 20 attempts. He doesn’t have outstanding skills, but he makes the most of what he has… which is the ability to hit .300 with gap power and 10-15 steals. Defensively, he can also play all three outfield positions.

Robinzon Diaz: Incumbent backstop Ryan Doumit had a disappointing offensive season in 2009 and the glove has never been a strong suit. Unable to build off of his breakout 2008, Doumit is currently hitting just .233/.270/.405 in 215 at-bats. Jason Jaramillo filled in for a while but he faded after the first three months of the year. As a result, Diaz might just be the best offensive bet entering 2010. Yes, the former Jays prospect had a down year in triple-A in 2009, but he’s shown a consistent ability to hit (an empty) .300. Scouts have always said he’s a talented player but his desire has been questioned, so he’s the type of player that needs to be constantly challenged. At the age of 26, and with parts of three years of triple-A experience, now is as good a time as any to see if he can realize his potential. Diaz would be a cheap option to help keep the spot warm for 2009 draft pick Tony Sanchez, who moved up to high-A at the end of the minor league season.

Kyle Phillips: Another catcher with a Jays connection, Phillips is the younger brother of former big-league catcher Jason Phillips (who also played with the Jays). Toronto signed the younger Phillips as a minor league free agent a few years ago and he’s shown solid ability with the bat, although he’s a questionable defender behind the dish. Regardless, the 25-year-old catcher could handle the job well enough as a back-up and he also has the ability to play first base and third base, so he could be an excellent third-catcher option. The left-handed hitter consistently creamed right-handed pitching in the minors. With both of the Jays’ big-league catchers (Rod Barajas, Raul Chavez) likely to file for free agency, Phillips is the best (ie. most MLB ready) in-house option to see time in 2010… at least until (and if) prospect J.P. Arencibia is ready.

Ian Desmond: The 2009-10 free agent pool of shortstops is pretty thin, with one-year wonder (and 34-year-old) Marco Scutaro at the top of the heap. The Nationals have Cristian Guzman locked up through 2010 at $8 million so he could end up being attractive to a team desperate for help at shortstop. If the club can move him (and they should even if they get little in return), the team could then turn the job over to Desmond, who has been the club’s shortstop-of-the-future for about, what, five years now? The 24-year-old infielder is coming off of his best offensive season. He hit .306 in double-A before moving up to triple-A where he managed a line of .354/.428/.461 in 178 at-bats. Desmond also improved his plate rates at the higher level.


AFL Preview: Surprise Rafters

The Arizona Fall League rosters were announced by Major League Baseball last week. The league allows up-and-coming prospects (usually from high-A and double-A levels, as well as recent high draft picks) to continue honing their skills away from the fall instructional leagues held by each organization. Play will begin in early October and run until late November with the six teams – each one made up of five organizations’ players – continually facing each other.

Over the next couple of weeks, we’ll take a look at some of the more interesting names on each team. The rosters that were recently released are preliminary rosters and some players will be added, while others could be removed. Over the past two weeks, we’ve looked at five teams:

  • The Phoenix Desert Dogs
  • The Scottsdale Scorpions
  • The Mesa Solar Sox
  • The Peoria Javelinas
  • The Peoria Saguaros
  • Today, we finish up our Arizona Fall League preview with a look at the Surprise Rafters.

    The Surprise Rafters (Click HERE for the entire roster)
    New York AL, New York NL, Kansas City, St. Louis, Texas

    Danny Gutierrez | RHP | Texas
    Gutierrez was recently involved in a rare prospect-for-prospects trade between Texas and Kansas City, which netted the Royals outfielder Tim Smith and catcher Manuel Pina. Gutierrez entered 2009 as a highly-regarded pitcher in the Royals system but then he got hurt and reportedly had some run-ins with the organization. When he got on the mound this year, the right-hander produced solid numbers, including 20 hits allowed in 32.1 innings between high-A and double-A. He walked just seven batters.

    Lance Lynn | RHP | St. Louis
    A supplemental first round draft pick from 2008, Lynn has been on the fast track to St. Louis and spent the majority of the year in double-A. He also made one triple-A start. At double-A, Lynn allowed 117 hits in 126.1 innings of work, while posting rates of 3.63 BB/9 and 6.98 K/9. The right-hander doesn’t strike out a lot of batters, but he’ll put the ball in play, get his fair share of ground balls and does a nice job of keeping the ball in the park.

    Evan Reed | RHP | Texas
    Reed was nabbed in the third round of the 2007 draft as a college reliever who was expected to make it to the Majors quickly. However, the Rangers tried to make him a starter and that backfired in 2008 when he imploded at high-A. He moved back to the bullpen in 2009 and saved 25 games in high-A but was still a little too hittable while battling his command. Enthusiasm for his big-league role must be tempered to setup man.

    Bryan Anderson | C | St. Louis
    Anderson was on track to make his MLB debut in 2009, but he was derailed by an injury so he’s looking to make up for lost time. The Cardinals organization isn’t in the market for a big league starter with Yadier Molina already in the fold so Anderson is ticketed for a big league back-up role unless he gets traded out of town. He’s an OK defensive player, but his strengths lie in his offensive skills and his ability to hit .280-300 from the left side.

    Austin Romine | C | New York AL
    Jesus Montero gets a lot of attention – and deservedly so – but Romine is a pretty darn good catching prospect in his own right. The 20-year-old prospect hit .276/.322/.441 with 13 homers and 11 steals in 442 at-bats at high-A ball. With a little more patience at the plate (6.2 BB%), he could jump into elite status.

    Jeff Bianchi | SS | Kansas City
    Bianchi received some love (including from yours truly) back in 2005/06 after he hit more than .400 over two rookie seasons while battling injuries (He accumulated just 140 at-bats). With the injuries perhaps having taken a toll on the youngster, Bianchi all but disappeared offensively for two seasons before resurfacing in 2009 in high-A and double-A. Combined, the 22 year old hit .308/.358/.435 with 22 steals. He still needs to work on his plate approach, though.

    Ike Davis | 1B/OF | New York NL
    Davis had a dismal pro debut in 2008 and took a lot of heat. He really turned things around this year and ended up in double-A. Overall, he hit 20 home runs in 429 at-bats after failing to hit even one in 2008 in 215 at-bats. Davis also hit for a solid average in 2009 (more than .300 in double-A) and he did a nice job of getting on base (11.2 BB%).

    Marcus Lemon | 2B | Texas
    He’s not flashy, but Chet’s son has had a pretty solid career so far and projects as a fringe regular, or big-league utility player. He struggled in double-A in 2009 but he’s still just 21 years old and he swings from the left side (and has hit more than .300 against southpaws in his career).

    Ruben Tejada | SS | New York NL
    Only 19, the Mets pushed Tejada to double-A in 2009 even though he hit .229/.293/.296 in 497 high-A at-bats in 2008. He responded to the challenge and improved his stats to a line of .289/.351/.381 with 19 steals in 488 at-bats. Tejada also struck out just 12.1% of the time.

    Tyler Henley | OF | St. Louis
    Henley has a nice year as a 24 year old in double-A. The outfielder hit .303/.367/.482 with 13 homers and nine steals in 423 at-bats. He has fringe power for a corner outfield spot so he’s likely to end up as a fourth outfielder, but he could end up getting some regular playing time if the cards fall in his favor.

    David Lough | OF | Kansas City
    Lough is still learning how to be a baseball player after spending time in high school and even college focusing on other sports like football. He’s catching on quickly though and flew through high-A after hitting .320 in 222 at-bats. In double-A, Lough continued to perform well with a line of .331/.371/.517 with nine homers and 13 steals in 236. Lough is moving from sleeper to legit prospect.


    AFL Preview: Peoria Saguaros

    The Arizona Fall League rosters were announced by Major League Baseball last week. The league allows up-and-coming prospects (usually from high-A and double-A levels, as well as recent high draft picks) to continue honing their skills away from the fall instructional leagues held by each organization. Play will begin in early October and run until late November with the six teams – each one made up of five organizations’ players – continually facing each other.

    Over the next couple of weeks, we’ll take a look at some of the more interesting names on each team. The rosters that were recently released are preliminary rosters and some players will be added, while others could be removed. Last Monday, we took a look at the Phoenix Desert Dogs. Tuesday, we had a gander at the Scottsdale Scorpions roster and on Wednesday we viewed the Mesa Solar Sox roster. Yesterday, we looked at the Peoria Javelinas roster and today we’re viewing the Peoria Saguaros.

    The Peoria Saguaros (Click HERE for the entire roster)
    Atlanta, San Diego, Houston, Cleveland, Cincinnati

    Craig Kimbrel | RHP | Atlanta
    Kimbrel was a busy man in 2009, making stops at four levels for Atlanta, so the AFL will be his fifth of the year. Combined in 2009, the reliever allowed 30 hits in 60 innings pitched. He also struck out 103 batters and walked 45. Despite his minor-league dominance, the lack of control is going to be an issue in the Majors so he has some work to do.

    Chia-Jen Lo | RHP | Houston
    Lo had a similar season to Kimbrel, although he pitched at just two levels. He allowed 40 hits in 64.1 innings of work with 75 strikeouts and 33 walks. His walk rate of 4.62 in double-A is too high but this was just his first year in North America after signing out of Taiwan last year.

    Mike Minor | LHP | Atlanta
    A 2009 first round draft pick, Minor was a bit of a reach for Atlanta’s first selection, but the club needs some upper-level pitching depth and the lefty should move quickly. He made four brief starts in pro ball after signing, allowing 10 hits and no walks in 14 innings of work. He also struck out 17 batters.

    Jason Castro | C | Houston
    It would not be shocking to see Castro behind the dish for Houston by mid-2010. The 2008 first-round pick had a very nice first full season in the minors and spent the last half of the year in double-A. He hit with good power in high-A ball but his ISO dropped from .208 to .092 after his promotion out of the extremely good hitter’s league and park.

    Matt McBride | C | Cleveland
    The Indians organization is not 100% sure what it has with McBride, who missed most of 2008 with an injury. He creamed high-A pitching but was old for the league. Upon a promotion to double-A, his batting average and on-base percentage plummeted but he still showed good power potential and struck out just 11.8% of the time. His BABIP can be partially blamed for his average.

    Yonder Alonso | 1B | Cincinnati
    Alonso struggled with injuries in 2009 but still played 28 games in double-A with a triple-slash line of .287/.368/.446. He doesn’t show as much in-game power as some of the other big-time first base prospects, but he’s a better overall hitter than most.

    Freddie Freeman | 1B | Atlanta
    Freeman, like Alonso, is a not a legit 30 home run hitter, but he has a chance to play good defense and hit .300 a few times with 20 homers. He was too advanced for high-A ball, where he began the year at the age of just 19. He finished up by hitting .248/.308/.342 in 149 double-A at-bats and should head back to Mississippi in 2010.

    Lance Zawadzki | SS | San Diego
    A fourth-round pick out of a smaller NAIA college in 2007, Zawadzki was selected higher than many expected but he rewarded the organization with a solid 2009 season. He split the year between high-A and double-A and showed more power at the lower level. Overall, he hit 15 homers in just under 500 at-bats. He won’t be a star, but he could be an average regular with 10-12 homers and 10-15 steals.

    Jonathan Gaston | OF | Houston
    Houston pulled the short straw last winter and ended up with Lancaster as its high-A affiliate. The park is perhaps the best hitter’s park in all of pro ball and Gaston enjoyed his time there immensely. He hit .280/.368/.602 with 35 homers and 119 RBI. His ISO was an incredible .322 but he struck out 31.7% of the time.

    Chris Heisey | OF | Cincinnati
    Heisey, 24, had a solid season in 2009 and split the year between double-A and triple-A. He has an outside shot of being the Reds’ fourth outfielder in 2010. Combined, Heisey hit 22 homers and stole 20 bases, while hitting more than .300. He is not a surefire bet to keep hitting for that kind of power in the Majors.

    Jason Heyward | OF | Atlanta
    Heyward could very well end up as the Minor League Baseball Player of the Year. The outfielder spent most of the year as a 19 year old and he started out in high-A and ended the year in triple-A. In between, he smoked double-A pitching and put up a line of .352/.446/.611 with more walks than strikeouts in 162 at-bats. He could be playing regularly in the Majors before his 21st birthday.


    AFL Preview: Peoria Javelinas

    The Arizona Fall League rosters were announced by Major League Baseball last week. The league allows up-and-coming prospects (usually from high-A and double-A levels, as well as recent high draft picks) to continue honing their skills away from the fall instructional leagues held by each organization. Play will begin in early October and run until late November with the six teams – each one made up of five organizations’ players – continually facing each other.

    Over the next couple of weeks, we’ll take a look at some of the more interesting names on each team. The rosters that were recently released are preliminary rosters and some players will be added, while others could be removed. Last Monday, we took a look at the Phoenix Desert Dogs. Tuesday, we had a gander at the Scottsdale Scorpions roster and on Wednesday we viewed the Mesa Solar Sox roster. Today, let’s look at the Peoria Javelinas roster.

    The Peoria Javelinas (Click HERE for the entire roster)
    Milwaukee, Seattle, Chicago (AL), Los Angeles (NL), Detroit

    Phillippe Aumont | RHP | Seattle
    Seattle, as per its M.O. (Modus operandi), rushed a number of its prospects through the system in 2009 with less-than-positive results. Aumont pitched very well in high-A despite playing in a very good hitter’s park and league. Moved up to double-A after 33.1 innings, the right-handed reliever saw his strikeout rate jump from 9.45 to 12.23 K/9. However, his walk rate also went up from 3.24 to 5.60 BB/9. He was hurt by a .436 BABIP.

    Zach Braddock | LHP | Milwaukee
    The 22-year-old Braddock had some problems early in his career while a member of the starting rotation. Injuries took a bite out of his 2009 season, but he was lights-out when he came out of the bullpen. In 39.2 innings split between high-A and double-A, Braddock allowed 24 hits, seven walks and 60 strikeouts.

    Joshua Fields | RHP | Seattle
    Because of a lengthy holdout before signing his first draft contract (He was also a college senior), Fields has appeared in just 31 pro games despite being 24 years old. The organization rushed him to double-A in 2009 but he imploded with a walk rate of 5.94 BB/9. His strikeout rate of 9.72 K/9 was encouraging and he allowed just 33 hits. His 6.48 ERA is not nearly as bad as it looks, with a FIP of 3.89.

    Cody Satterwhite and Robbie Weinhardt | RHPs | Detroit
    Detroit nabbed a number of hard-throwing college relievers in the 2008 draft, including both Satterwhite and Weinhardt. Satterwhite was the bigger name and he spent all of 2009 in double-A where he allowed 46 hits in 49.1 innings of work. He gets more than his fair share of strikeouts, but walks are a concern (4.93 BB/9). Weinhardt wasn’t taken until the 10th round, but he’s been as impressive as any other college reliever taken in the draft outside of Ryan Perry who is already pitching in the Majors. Weinhardt split 2009 between high-A and double-A. He allowed 52 hits in 63 cumulative innings, while showing average command and good strikeout numbers.

    Jonathan Lucroy | C | Milwaukee
    With incumbent MLB catcher Jason Kendall on his last legs, there will be an opening on the big league club before too long. As the club’s third-round pick from the 2007 draft, Lucroy is one of the favorites to fill that position in the next two years. Known for his good bat, the right-handed hitter slipped a bit in 2009 at double-A with a line of .268/.380/.419 in 418 at-bats.

    Dustin Ackley | CF/1B | Seattle
    Ackley has yet to make his pro debut but that will come in the Arizona Fall League. The 2009 second-overall draft pick is an advanced offensive prospect but he needs work on his defense in center field before settling in on the big-league roster. Ackley spent much of the 2008-09 college season playing first base, but his power is below average for that position.

    Carlos Triunfel | SS/3B | Seattle
    Triunfel was to spend the 2009 season in double-A as a 19 year old. However, he suffered an injury that wiped out almost all of his regular season. Luckily, he is back and healthy enough to participate in the fall league. Last season, he hit .287/.336/.406 with eight homers and 30 steals in 436 at-bats. A shortstop early in his career, Triunfel is expected to be a long-term third baseman, although he currently has below-average power for the position.

    Jordan Danks | OF | Chicago (AL)
    Danks was a little bit more advanced as a hitter than people expected and he hit .322/.409/.525 in 118 high-A at-bats. Moved up to double-A, he struggled in August and September, which brought his line down to .243/.337/.356 in 284 at-bats. His power has also diminished with each move in his pro career, with his ISO dropping from .300 to .203 to .113. Defensively, he could play in the Majors right now.

    Andrew Lambo | OF/1B | Los Angeles (NL)
    After a breakout 2008 season, Lambo took a step back in 2009, but he was just 20 years old for much of the season while playing in double-A. He held his own but did not dominate with a line of .254/.309/.406. He also had 39 doubles and 11 homers in 488 at-bats. Lambo was hurt by a .296 BABIP.


    AFL Preview: Mesa Solar Sox

    The Arizona Fall League rosters were announced by Major League Baseball last week. The league allows up-and-coming prospects (usually from high-A and double-A levels, as well as recent high draft picks) to continue honing their skills away from the fall instructional leagues held by each organization. Play will begin in early October and run until late November with the six teams – each one made up of five organizations’ players – continually facing each other.

    Over the next week, we’ll take a look at some of the more interesting names on each team. The rosters that were recently released are preliminary rosters and some players will be added, while others could be removed. On Monday, we took a look at the Phoenix Desert Dogs. On Tuesday, we had a gander at the Scottsdale Scorpions roster. Today, let’s view the Mesa Solar Sox roster.

    The Mesa Solar Sox (Click HERE for the entire roster)
    Minnesota, Chicago (NL), Los Angeles (AL), Florida, Boston

    Andrew Cashner | RHP | Chicago
    Drafted as a college reliever, Cashner has made a successful conversion to the starting rotation. He opened the 2009 season by allowing just 31 hits in 42 high-A innings. The right-hander then moved on to double-A where he’s had similar success, although his walk rate has risen from 3.21 to 4.56 BB/9.

    Tommy Mendoza | RHP | Los Angeles
    This right-hander had a breakout season at the low-A ball level in 2006 at the age of 19. The next two years, though, were a disappointment. Mendoza’s value has risen again in 2009, although the ceiling is a little more modest this time around. Still only 22, he profiles as a No. 3 or 4 starter.

    Welington Castillo | C | Chicago
    With Geovany Soto tanking with a capital ‘T’ there is suddenly a desperate need for catching depth in the Chicago system. However, Castillo chose a really poor time to have an off-year at the plate. He is a very promising defensive player with an excellent arm behind the dish. Unfortunately, Castillo has proven for two straight seasons now that he cannot hit right-handed pitchers, which significantly hinders his chances of ever playing on an everyday basis.

    Hank Conger | C | Los Angeles
    Conger has the opposite problem to Castillo. The slugging catcher can mash with the best on them, but his defense is bad enough that no one believes he can remain behind the dish. After struggling with injuries in 2007 and 2008, the switch hitter finally played a full season and is currently hitting .294/.365/.423 in 428 double-A at-bats. A former first-round pick, Conger is still just 21 years old.

    Starlin Castro | SS | Chicago
    The Cubs organization was aggressive with Castro in 2009 after he hit .311/.364/.464 at rookie ball in 2008. The 19-year-old shortstop hit .302/.340/.391 with 22 steals (in 33 attempts) at high-A in 2009 before being promoted to double-A, where he’s held his own in 24 games. Incumbent MLB shortstop Ryan Theriot needs to be looking over his shoulder.

    Matt Dominguez | 3B | Florida
    Three prep third basemen were nabbed near the top of the first round during the 2007 draft: Dominguez, Josh Vitters, and Mike Moustakas. All three players have had their struggles but Dominguez (who was drafted last at 12th overall) is the only one of the trio to make it to double-A. Although he’s struggled a bit with the bat, Dominguez has the edge in the field.

    Josh Vitters | 3B | Chicago
    Vitters has had troubles adapting to new levels in his brief pro career. After starting out very well in 2009 at low-A (His second attempt at the level), he has struggled mightily upon a promotion to high-A. At the root of the problem is his lack of patience at the plate, which has manifested itself in the form of a dismal 2.4 BB% in 2009.

    Bryan Petersen | OF | Florida
    I highlighted Petersen prior to the 2009 season as a possible breakout candidate in 2009. He hasn’t made me look like a genius, but he’s held his own in double-A as a 23 year old. His power has taken a step back in 2009, with his ISO dropping from .200+ to .120. He’s also struggled on the base paths with only 12 steals in 24 attempts. On the plus side, he’s shown a consistent ability to hit for average and he continues to trim the strikeouts. If he cannot regain some ground with his power and speed numbers, he’ll develop into a fourth outfielder.

    Michael Stanton | OF | Florida
    Petersen’s teammate should need no introductions. Stanton is one of the biggest mashers in the minors and fans are constantly asking for updates on his ETA, especially after he spent the first part of 2009 demolishing high-A pitching. The holes in the talented outfielder’s plate approach have been exposed by double-A pitchers, though. He’s currently hitting .234/.311/.453 with a strikeout rate of 33.6 K% in 274 at-bats. Stanton will likely opened 2010 in double-A with a mid-season promotion to triple-A possible if he makes the necessary adjustments, which have so far eluded him. At the age of 19, time is very much on his side.


    AFL Preview: Scottsdale Scorpions

    The Arizona Fall League rosters were announced by Major League Baseball last week. The league allows up-and-coming prospects (usually from high-A and double-A levels, as well as recent high draft picks) to continue honing their skills away from the fall instructional leagues held by each organization. Play will begin in early October and run until late November with the six teams – each one made up of five organizations’ players – continually facing each other.

    Over the next week, we’ll take a look at some of the more interesting names on each team. The rosters that were recently released are preliminary rosters and some players will be added, while others could be removed. Yesterday, we took a look at the Phoenix Desert Dogs. Today, we’ll have a peek at the Scottsdale Scorpions roster.

    The Scottsdale Scorpions (Click HERE for the entire roster)
    Arizona, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Colorado

    Daniel Moskos | LHP | Pittsburgh
    The Scottsdale squad does not feature many truly interesting pitching names, although Moskos does stand out as a former No. 1 draft pick of the Pirates. The left-hander has had a disappointing pro career to this point, although you may enjoy the 3.84 ERA in double-A… but the ground-ball rate of 54.3% is more impressive. Moskos has been too hittable but with a better defense behind him, he should have a little better luck. The strikeout rate in the past three years has plummeted, which is troubling (9.24 to 6.36 to 4.20 K/9).

    Buster Posey | C | San Francisco
    Teams have become very conscious of service time, so it would not be a surprise to see Posey begin 2010 in triple-A. With that said, the bat and glove are both ready for the Majors. If possible, the best scenario would be for San Francisco to resign veteran Bengie Molina to split the catching duties with Posey next year. Whether Molina would accept that type of playing time remains to be seen. The Giants prospect should eventually become a very real (and much-needed) threat in the heart of the club’s lineup.

    Wilin Rosario | C | Colorado
    The Rockies organization was extremely aggressive with Rosario after his breakout 2008 season in short-season ball. He was jumped over low-A ball and the 20 year old spent the season in high-A. Not surprisingly, Rosario struggles in April and May before finding his footing over the next two months. Injuries then wiped out August so the Dominican native will be fresher than most of the catchers in the league.

    Brandon Allen | 1B | Arizona
    A busy year for Allen is only going to get busier. The first-base prospect has played for four teams already this year – including making his MLB debut with Arizona – and he’ll join his fifth club in the AFL. Currently in the Majors, Allen is holding his own and the 23 year old has a shot at being the Diamondbacks’ opening day first baseman in 2010.

    Hector Gomez | SS | Colorado
    Gomez is a very promising prospect, but the Rockies organization would no doubt like to see him spend a little more time on the field. After missing all but one game in 2008, the shortstop missed significant time in April and June of this year. Gomez is a good defensive player but he needs a lot more work on his approach at the plate, including his walk rate which was at 4.3% this year at high-A ball.

    Domonic Brown | OF | Philadelphia
    A two-sport prep star, Brown has quickly become quite the baseball player ever since he began focusing on the sport on a full-time basis. He has made himself into a five-tool player with the increase in power this season; his ISO increased from .126 in 2008 to .212 in ’09. Brown also has the ability to hit .300 and steal 20-30 bases in a full season.

    Jose Tabata | OF | Pittsburgh
    On the plus side, Tabata has shown the ability to hit for a consistently-high average despite playing at double-A and triple-A in 2009. On the downside, his power has yet to develop and he’s had trouble staying on the field due to injuries. His off-the-field lifestyle is also questionable, as is his actual age. Tabata, though, is showing signs of being ready to contribute in Pittsburgh by mid-2010 at the latest.