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The Top 10 Prospects: AL West

Our Top 10 prospects series jumps from the National League to the American League with the AL West today. You can read there NL West here, the NL Central here and the NL East here.

It’s been well documented that Oakland and Texas are both overflowing with talent. Texas is impressive because of all the pitching talent that it has, along with some intriguing hitters. Oakland has done a nice job stockpiling talent from other organizations in exchange for more expensive MLB talent.

Seattle does not have a ton of depth, but it has some key names at the top of the chart, including Phillippe Aumont, who should be an absolute monster coming out of the bullpen now that he’s been moved out of the starting rotation for better or for worse. In Los Angeles, the system is hurting – and that was before the organization lost its top prospect to a tragic traffic accident last week.

The Oakland Athletics
1. Trevor Cahill, RHP, Oakland
2. Brett Anderson, LHP, Oakland
3. Michael Inoa, RHP, Extended Spring Training
4. Chris Carter, 1B, Midland (AA)
5. Adrian Cardenas, 2B, Midland (AA)
6. Vince Mazzaro, LHP, Sacramento (AAA)
7. Sean Doolittle, 1B, Sacramento (AAA)
8. Aaron Cunningham, OF, Sacramento (AAA)
9. Gio Gonzalez, LHP, Sacramento (AAA)
10.Jemile Weeks, 2B, Injured

Other Prospects of Note: James Simmons, Henry Rodriguez, Josh Outman, Josh Donaldson, Brett Hunter, Rashun Dixon, Craig Italiano, Arnold Leon

The Seattle Mariners
1. Greg Halman, OF, West Tenn (AA)
2. Phillippe Aumont, RHP, High Desert (A+)
3. Michael Saunders, OF, Extended Spring Training
4. Adam Moore, C, West Tenn (AA)
5. Carlos Triunfel, SS, Injured
6. Jharmidy DeJesus, 3B, Extended Spring Training
7. Mario Martinez, 3B, Clinton (A)
8. Juan Ramirez, RHP, High Desert (A+)
9. Michael Pineda, RHP, High Desert (A+)
10. Matt Tuiasosopo, IF, Seattle

Other Prospects of Note: Joshua Fields, Dennis Raben, Carlos Peguero, Maikel Cleto, Shawn Kelley, Denny Almonte, Nolan Gallagher, Rob Johnson

The Texas Rangers
1. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Oklahoma City (AAA)
2. Derek Holland, LHP, Oklahoma City (AAA)
3. Justin Smoak, 1B, Frisco (AA)
4. Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas
5. Taylor Teagarden, C, Texas
6. Michael Main, RHP, Bakersfield
7. Julio Borbon, OF, Oklahoma City (AAA)
8. Max Ramirez, C, Oklahoma City (AAA)
9. Martin Perez, LHP, Hickory (A)
10. Wilfredo Boscan, RHP, Hickory (A)

Other Prospects of Note: Blake Beavan, Eric Hurley, Neil Ramirez, Tommy Hunter, Kasey Kiker, Wilmer Font, Tim Murphy, Guillermo Moscoso, Robbie Ross, Greg Golson

The Los Angeles Angels
1. Nick Adenhart, RHP, In Memory
2. Jordan Walden, RHP, Arkansas (AA)
3. Trevor Reckling, LHP, Rancho Cucamonga (A+)
4. Hank Conger, C, Arkansas (AA)
5. Mark Trumbo, 1B, Arkansas (AA)
6. Sean O’Sullivan, LHP, Arkansas (AA)
7. Will Smith, LHP, Cedar Rapids (A)
8. Trevor Chatwood, RHP, Cedar Rapids (A)
9. Pete Bourjos, OF, Arkansas (AA)
10. Mason Tobin, RHP, Rancho Cucamonga (A+)

Other Prospects of Note: Kevin Jepsen, Ryan Chaffee, Manuarys Correa, Anthony Ortega, Bobby Wilson, Ryan Mount, Chris Pettit


The Top 10 Prospects: NL East

The Top 10 prospect series continues today with the National League East. Previously, we took a look at the NL Central and the NL West systems. Both the Braves and the Marlins have pretty deep systems in the east. If I were a general manager, I’m not sure which Top 10 I would choose, given the choice between the two. I’d definitely be ecstatic to have either of the Top 4 prospects on each list.

After years of minor-league mediocrity, the Nationals system is finally showing signs of life, although the depth is still not there. Despite a rough start to the 2009 season, the Nationals’ Jordan Zimmermann is a very talented pitcher. The Mets have a lot of interesting raw players that were originally signed out of Latin America. Be sure to keep an eye on Jefry Marte this season, as well as Jenrry Mejia. Both players are very young and oozing tools, not unlike No. 2 prospect Wilmer Flores. I’m not sure if I like the Phillies system or not… I do, however, know that I really like Kyle Drabek and Travis D’Arnaud.

The Atlanta Braves
1. Jason Heyward, OF, Myrtle Beach (A+)
2. Tommy Hanson, RHP, Gwinnett (AAA)
3. Jordan Schafer, OF, Atlanta
4. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Myrtle Beach (A+)
5. Julio Teheran, RHP, Extended Spring Training
6. Gorkys Hernandez, OF, Mississippi (AA)
7. Cole Rohrbough, LHP, Myrtle Beach (A+)
8. Jeff Locke, LHP, Myrtle Beach (A+)
9. Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Myrtle Beach (A+)
10. Brandon Hicks, SS, Mississippi (AA)

Other Players of Note: Kris Medlen, Cody Johnson, Randall Delgado, Brett DeVall, Zeke Spruill, Rudy Darrow

The Philadelphia Phillies
1. Dominic Brown, OF, Clearwater (A+)
2. Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Lehigh Valley (AAA)
3. Lou Marson, C, Philadelphia
4. Michael Taylor, OF, Reading (AA)
5. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Clearwater (A+)
6. Jason Donald, SS, Lehigh Valley (AAA)
7. Travis D’Arnaud, C, Lakewood (A)
8. Zach Collier, OF, Lakewood (A)
9. J.A. Happ, LHP, Philadelphia
10. Jason Knapp, RHP, Lakewood (A)

Other Players of Note: Antonio Bastardo, Drew Naylor, Anthony Hewitt, Freddy Galvis, Joe Savery, Edgar Garcia, John Mayberry Jr., Colby Shreve

The New York Mets
1. Fernando Martinez, OF, Buffalo (AAA)
2. Wilmer Flores, SS, Savannah (A)
3. Brad Holt, RHP, St. Lucie (A+)
4. Jonathon Niese, LHP, Buffalo (AAA)
5. Jefry Marte, 3B, Savannah (A)
6. Bobby Parnell, RHP, New York
7. Jenrry Mejia, RHP, St. Lucie (A+)
8. Nick Evans, OF, Buffalo (AAA)
9. Reese Havens, IF, St. Lucie (A+)
10. Ike Davis, 1B/OF, St. Lucie (A+)

Other Players of Note: Eddie Kunz, Scott Shaw, Cesar Puello, Dillon Gee, Scott Moviel, Javier Rodriguez, Zach Lutz, Ruben Tejada

The Florida Marlins
1. Cameron Maybin, OF, Florida
2. Logan Morrison, 1B, Jacksonville (AA)
3. Michael Stanton, OF, Jupiter (A+)
4. Matt Dominguez, 3B, Jupiter (A+)
5. Gaby Sanchez, 1B, New Orleans (AAA)
6. Chris Coghlan, 2B, New Orleans, (AAA)
7. Sean West, LHP, Jacksonville (AA)
8. Kyle Skipworth, C, Greensboro (A)
9. Ryan Tucker, RHP, New Orleans (AAA)
10. Jose Ceda, RHP, Injured

Other Players of Note: Brett Sinkbeil, Aaron Thompson, Isaac Galloway, Brad Hand, Bryan Peterson, Edgar Olmos, Miguel Fermin

The Washington Nationals
1. Jordan Zimmermann, RHP, Syracuse (AAA)
2. Michael Burgess, OF, Potomac (A+)
3. Ross Detwiler, LHP, Harrisburg (AA)
4. Derek Norris, C, Hagerstown (A)
5. Jack McGeary, LHP, Hagerstown (A)
6. Chris Marrero, 1B, Potomac (A+)
7. Adrian Nieto, C, Extended Spring Training
8. J.P. Ramirez, OF, Extended Spring Training
9. Shairon Martis, RHP, Washington
10. Danny Espinosa, SS, Potomac (A+)

Other Players of Note: Graham Hicks, Destin Hood, Justin Maxwell, Bill Rhinehart, Ian Desmond, Josh Smoker, Luke Montz


The Top 10 Prospects: NL Central

After beginning this series last week with the National League West, we start the new week by taking a look at the Top 10 prospects for each of the NL Central teams, as well as their 2009 Opening Day assignments.

The NL Central features a few interesting systems (Milwaukee, Cincinnati, St. Louis) and two disappointing systems (Chicago, Houston), as well as one system that stirs lukewarm feelings (Pittsburgh). In Cincinnati, Juan Carlos Sulbaran is perhaps the biggest up-and-coming name even though he has yet to throw a pitch in a regular-season game. He upped his stock after an intriguing performance in the World Baseball Classic for the Dutch team. In Houston, the organization continues to be aggressive with pitcher-turned-outfielder Brian Bogusevic, who is in Triple-A after playing in just 42 games as a hitter last season in Double-A.

The Chicago Cubs
1. Josh Vitters, 3B, Peoria (A)
2. Jeff Samardzija, RHP, Iowa (AAA)
3. Andrew Cashner, RHP, Injured
4. Jay Jackson, RHP, Tennessee (AA)
5. Starlin Castro, SS, Daytona (A+)
6. Ryan Flaherty, SS, Peoria (A)
7. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Injured
8. Brandon Guyer, OF, Tennessee (AA)
9. Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP, Injured
10. Welington Castillo, C, Tennessee (AA)

Other Players of Note: Kevin Hart, Micah Hoffpauir, Junior Lake, Tyler Colvin, Tony Thomas, Chris Carpenter

The Cincinnati Reds
1. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Sarasota (A+)
2. Daryl Thompson, RHP, Louisville (AAA)
3. Todd Frazier, OF, Carolina (AA)
4. Drew Stubbs, OF, Louisville (AAA)
5. Yorman Rodriguez, OF, Extended Spring Training
6. Neftali Soto, 3B, Sarasota (A+)
7. Juan Carlos Sulbaran, RHP, Dayton (A)
8. Chris Valaika, SS, Louisville (AAA)
9. Kyle Lotzkar, RHP, Injured
10. Juan Francisco, 3B, Double-A

Other Players of Note: Juan Duran, Devin Mesoraco, Chris Dickerson, Ramon Ramirez, Dallas Buck, Alex Buchholz

The Houston Astros
1. Jason Castro, C, Lancaster (A+)
2. Drew Sutton, 2B, Round Rock (AAA)
3. Brian Bogusevic, OF, Round Rock (AAA)
4. Ross Seaton, RHP, Lexington (A)
5. Bud Norris, RHP, Round Round (AAA)
6. Jordan Lyles, RHP, Lexington (A)
7. Chris Johnson, 3B, Round Rock (AAA)
8. Felipe Paulino, RHP, Round Round (AAA)
9. Jay Austin, OF, Lexington (A)
10. Collin DeLome, OF, Corpus Christi (AA)

Other Players of Note: Chia-Jen Lo, Sergio Perez, Brad James, Josh Flores, Eli Iorg, Leandro Cespedes

The Milwaukee Brewers
1. Alcides Escobar, SS, Nashville (AAA)
2. Mat Gamel, 3B, Nashville (AAA)
3. Brett Lawrie, 2B, Wisconsin (A)
4. Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Huntsville (AA)
5. Angel Salome, C, Nashville (AAA)
6. Cutter Dykstra, OF, Wisconsin (A)
7. Lorenzo Cain, OF, Huntsville (AA)
8. Jonathan Lucroy, C, Huntsville (AA)
9. Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Extended Spring Training
10. Taylor Green, 3B, Injured

Other Players of Note: Cole Gillespie, Zack Braddock, Caleb Gindl, Cody Scarpetta, Eric Farris, Lee Haydel, Efrain Nieves, Joe Koshansky, Nick Green

The Pittsburgh Pirates
1. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Lynchburg (A+)
2. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Indianapolis (AAA)
3. Jose Tabata, OF, Altoona (AA)
4. Brad Lincoln, RHP, Altoona (AA)
5. Bryan Morris, RHP, Lynchburg (A+)
6. Robbie Grossman, OF, West Virginia (A)
7. Neil Walker, 3B, Indianapolis (AAA)
8. Shelby Ford, 2B, Indianapolis (AAA)
9. Daniel McCutchen, RHP, Indianapolis (AAA)
10. Jarek Cunningham, 3B, Injured

Other Players of Note: Brian Friday, Quinton Miller, Daniel Moskos, Jamie Romak, Wesley Freeman, Jim Negrych, Robinzon Diaz

The St. Louis Cardinals
1. Colby Rasmus, OF, St. Louis
2. Brett Wallace, 3B, Springfield (AA)
3. Chris Perez, RHP, Memphis (AAA)
4. Jess Todd, RHP, Memphis (AAA)
5. Jason Motte, RHP, St. Louis
6. Bryan Anderson, C, Memphis (AAA)
7. Daryl Jones, OF, Springfield (AA)
8. Adam Reifer, RHP, Palm Beach (A+)
9. Clayton Mortensen, RHP, Memphis (AAA)
10. David Freese, 3B, St. Louis

Other Players of Note: Jon Jay, Peter Kozma, Lance Lynn, Mitchell Boggs, Francisco Samuel, Niko Vasquez, Jaime Garcia


The Top 10 Prospects: NL West

The Minor League Baseball season got underway last night as a few teams in the Double-A Eastern League took to the (chilly) field. As such, this presents a perfect opportunity to A) Look at the Top 10 prospects for each organization entering the season, and B) To see where all the top prospects are beginning the season.

The Colorado Rockies
1. Dexter Fowler, OF, Colorado (MAJ)
2. Jhoulys Chacin, RHP, Tulsa (AA)
3. Wilin Rosario, C, Modesto (A+)
4. Eric Young Jr., IF, Col. Springs (AAA)
5. Christian Friedrich, LHP, Asheville (A)
6. Hector Gomez, SS, Modesto (A+)
7. Mike McKenry, C, Tulsa (AA)
8. Delta Cleary, OF, Extended Spring Training
9. Connor Graham, RHP, Modesto (A+)
10. Charlie Blackmon, OF, Modesto (A+)

Other players of note: Casey Weathers (RHP), Esmil Rogers (RHP), Seth Smith (OF), Chris Nelson (SS), Shane Lindsay (RHP)

The San Francisco Giants
1. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, San Jose (A+)
2. Buster Posey, C, San Jose (A+)
3. Angel Villalona, 3B/1B, San Jose (A+)
4. Tim Alderson, RHP, San Jose (A+)
5. Nick Noonan, 2B, San Jose (A+)
6. Rafael Rodriguez, OF, Extended Spring Training
7. Conor Gillaspie, 3B, San Jose (A+)
8. Scott Barnes, LHP, San Jose (A+)
9. Henry Sosa, RHP, Connecticut (AA)
10. Ehire Adrianza, SS, Augusta (A)

Other Prospects of Note: Sergio Romo (RHP), Waldis Joaquin (RHP), Wendell Fairley (OF), Roger Kieschnick (OF), Travis Ishikawa (1B)

The Arizona Diamondbacks
1. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Visalia (A+)
2. Gerardo Parra, OF, Mobile (AA)
3. Daniel Schlereth, LHP, Mobile (AA)
4. Mark Hallberg, SS, Mobile (AA)
5. Trevor Harden, RHP, South Bend (A)
6. Wade Miley, LHP, South Bend (A)
7. Kevin Eichhorn, RHP, Extended Spring Training
8. Cesar Valdez, RHP, Reno (AAA)
9. Reynaldo Navarro, SS, South Bend (A)
10. Barry Enright, RHP, Mobile (AA)

Other Prospects of Note: Billy Buckner (RHP), Collin Cowgill (OF), Daniel Stange (RHP), Pedro Ciriaco (SS), Bryan Shaw (RHP), Josh Whitesell (1B)

The Los Angeles Dodgers
1. James McDonald, RHP, Los Angeles (MAJ)
2. Josh Lindblom, RHP, Chattanooga (AA)
3. Andrew Lambo, OF, Chattanooga (AA)
4. Ethan Martin, RHP, Great Lakes (A)
5. Scott Elbert, LHP, Chattanooga (AA)
6. Devaris Gordon, SS, Great Lakes (A)
7. Josh Bell, 3B, Chattanooga (AA)
8. Austin Gallagher, 3B, Great Lakes (A)
9. Chris Withrow, RHP, Inland Empire (A+)
10. Ivan DeJesus, SS, Disabled List

Other Prospects of Note: Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), Ramon Troncoso (RHP), Pedro Baez (3B), Kyle Russell (OF), Tony Delmonico (C)

The San Diego Padres
1. Kyle Blanks, 1B, Portland (AAA)
2. Adys Portillo, RHP, Extended Spring Training
3. Mat Latos, RHP, Lake Elsinore (A+)
4. Jaff Decker, OF, Extended Spring Training
5. Kellen Kulbacki, OF, San Antonio (AA)
6. Cedric Hunter, OF, San Antonio (AA)
7. Allan Dykstra, 1B, Fort Wayne (A)
8. Will Venable, OF, Portland (AAA)
9. James Darnell, 3B, Fort Wayne (A)
10. Simon Castro, RHP, Fort Wayne (A)

Other Prospects of Note: Logan Forsythe (3B), Matt Antonelli (2B), Wade LeBlanc (LHP), Will Inman (RHP), Cole Figueroa (2B), Mitch Canham (C)


Ranking the Minors: The Top 10

We made it. After looking at the bottom 10 baseball organizations in terms of minor-league talent, and then the middle 10, we are now on to the best 10 systems in all of Major League Baseball. We’ve also been looking at how other publications have ranked the systems and all three of us feel pretty confident in the Top 6 teams. They appear in different orders one-through-six but they’re all there.

(BA = Baseball America, BP = Baseball Prospectus, FAN = FanGraphs)

The Top 10:
NO.  BA    BP    FAN
 1.  TEX   OAK   OAK
 2.  FLA   TEX   TEX
 3.  OAK    TB   FLA
 4.   TB   ATL   ATL
 5.   SF   FLA    TB
 6.  ATL    SF    SF
 7.  CLE   BAL   BAL
 8.  STL   BOS   CLE
 9.  BAL   STL   STL
10.  MIL   TOR    KC

The Top 6 teams, unanimously, are: Oakland, Texas, Florida, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and San Francisco. All six teams have seen their share of ups and downs, and have been aided by favorable slotting in the June amateur draft in recent years, which has helped their systems. Both Texas (6 picks) and San Francisco (6 picks) had multiple first and second round draft picks in the 2007 draft, which also helped the Toronto Blue Jays (7 picks), a club that was ranked 10th by Baseball Prospectus. San Diego (ranked 26th overall by FanGraphs) led clubs in 2007 with eight picks in the first two rounds, but selected seven players out of college and five of those players had modest starts to their pro careers. Top pick Nick Schmidt underwent Tommy John surgery not long after signing his contract (three games). Obviously, you have to make the most out of your opportunities.

An argument can seemingly be made for either Texas or Oakland sitting at No. 1 overall. Both clubs have made some good draft choices (Derek Holland by Texas, Trevor Cahill for Oakland) and each team has been helped by key trades. Texas’ system took a huge step forward after a trade with Atlanta that saw Mark Teixeira swapped for young catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia and prospects Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison and Beau Jones. Oakland made three solid trades that netted prospects such as Brett Anderson, Chris Carter, Adrian Cardenas, Aaron Cunningham, and Gio Gonzalez.

Based on the FanGraphs’ Top 10 Organizations:

  • Biggest Surprise to be in the Top 10: St. Louis
  • Best Chance to Improve Even More in 2009: Texas
  • Best Chance to Regress in 2009: Florida
  • Most Likely to Produce a Rookie of the Year in 1-3 Years: Florida
  • Club With the Best Pitching Depth: Texas
  • St. Louis is a surprising club in the Top 10 – I thought I’d made an error when I first tabulated my personal list – because it was a bottom-20 team for at least the last five years prior to 2008-09. It’s hard to improve upon Top 1st or 2nd but Texas could actually do it, depending on how many prospects graduate to the Majors in 2009… There are some talented players in rookie and A-ball that could quickly move up the rankings. Florida is no stranger to the NL Rookie of the Year award after winning it twice in the last six seasons (Hanley Ramirez, Dontrelle Willis) and Cameron Maybin could be next in line… and then Logan Morrison… and then Michael Stanton or Matt Dominguez… The club is also the most likely to regress because it relies so heavily on its young players on the Major League roster that it can deplete stock pretty quickly. The tight-fisted management also tends to trade off its ‘veteran’ players before they have the opportunity to become free agents and bring in compensatory draft picks.


    Ranking the Minors: The Middle 10

    Yesterday, we took a look at the bottom 10 organizations in Major League Baseball, in terms of minor-league talent. Naturally, that means today’s post will look at the middle-of-the-road minor league systems.

    (BA = Baseball America, BP = Baseball Prospectus, FAN = FanGraphs)

    The Middle 10:
    NO.  BA    BP    FAN  
    11.   KC   COL   BOS 
    12.  PHI   CLE   CIN
    13.  BOS   NYY   MIL
    14.  CIN   PHI   COL
    15.  NYY   MIL   TOR
    16.  CWS    KC   PHI
    17.  NYM   SEA   NYY
    18.  PIT   NYM   NYM
    19.  TOR   CIN   PIT
    20.  COL   MIN   MIN

    The biggest discrepancies in the rankings, when comparing the three publications, definitely appears to be with the Colorado Rockies (20th, 11th, 14th) and the Kansas City Royals (11th, 16th, 10th). Personally, I really like the top seven prospects in the Colorado system, which include pitchers Jhoulys Chacin, Christian Friedrich, catcher Wilin Rosario, and outfielder Dexter Fowler. I also probably like catcher Mike McKenry and utility player Eric Young Jr. more than most.

    As for Kansas City whom I rated higher than anyone else, I think the top three prospects have the potential to be excellent Major League players: Eric Hosmer (1B), Mike Moustakas (3B), and Tim Melville (SP). The club had the best amateur draft in 2008, which is impressive considering that the organization did it with just one supplemental pick – and they cannot compete money-for-money with clubs like New York and Boston when it comes to free agents – and even international talent. Other players I really like in the KC system include pitchers Danny Duffy, Mike Montgomery, Daniel Gutierrez, Kelvin Herrera, catcher Jose Bonilla and outfielder Mitch Maier, who deserves the opportunity to go to an organization that will let him earn a MLB bench role.

    Based on the FanGraphs’ Middle 10 Organizations:

  • Biggest Surprise to be in the Middle 10: Boston and New York (AL)
  • Best Chance to Improve Significantly in 2009: Cincinnati or Boston
  • Best Chance to Remain Middle-Class Long Term: Milwaukee
  • Most Likely to Produce a Rookie of the Year in 1-3 Years: Toronto
  • Club With the Best Pitching Depth: Minnesota
  • With the money that Boston and New York both have, you’d think that it would show up more in the talent filtered throughout their systems. In Boston’s case, the club has improved in that area in the last couple of seasons and could really take a step forward in 2009 if players like Ryan Westmoreland, Pete Hissey, Anthony Rizzo, Will Middlebrooks, and Junichi Tazawa perform like their scouting reports suggest they will. I will never, ever bet against Boston as an organization as long as the current upper management is in place. They’re just smart – and this would likely be a winning organization even if they were in the bottom half of the Majors in salary potential.

    New York, not unlike Boston, has been hurt in terms of minor-league talent by trades for established Major Leaguers. With that said, the club has paid a lot of money to prospects like Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes, only to have them under-perform. Other prospects like Andrew Brackman and Alfredo Aceves – and now possibly Ramiro Pena – get overrated by the media in and around New York. Whereas Boston builds bridges over the organization’s holes, New York seems to try and cover its holes with mat created by taping dollar bills together.


    Ranking the Minors: The Lowly 10

    Over the last couple of months, we’ve looked at some of the more interesting prospects in each of the 30 MLB team’s minor league systems. With the Minor League Baseball season beginning at the end of this week, let’s now take a look – over the next three days – at who has the best and the worst minor league systems in the game.

    (BA = Baseball America, BP = Baseball Prospectus, FAN = FanGraphs)

    The Bottom 10:

    NO.  BA    BP    FAN  
    21.  WAS   LAD   CWS 
    22.  MIN   PIT   SEA
    23.  LAD   LAA   LAD
    24.  SEA   CWS   WAS
    25.  LAA   SD    ARZ
    26.  ARZ   CHC   SD
    27.  CHC   DET   LAA
    28.  DET   ARZ   CHC
    29.  SD    WAS   DET
    30.  HOU   HOU   HOU

    Obviously, minor league rankings are subjective. Each opinion is neither correct nor incorrect. For the most part, though, there is agreement upon the worst minor league systems in Major League Baseball. The biggest disagreements appear to be with these three organizations: Pittsburgh, Seattle, and Chicago (AL). So why is that? With Pittsburgh, you have the big three hitters: Pedro Alvarez, Andrew McCutchen, and Jose Tabata. After that, well, you go on gut feel because the system is thin.

    Seattle has a lot of raw, toolsy guys that can be hard to read. Yes, Greg Halman put up a near 30-30 season, but his walk/strikeout rates are poor and his career batting average is just .262 – and mostly in the low minors. Phillippe Aumont has the chance to be a monster pitcher with a heavy, hard fastball – but he’s already showing signs of being injury prone (something that seems to plague Canadian starting pitchers… Erik Bedard, Shawn Hill, Rich Harden, Jeff Francis, Adam Loewen, etc).

    In Chicago, there is not a whole lot to get excited about. Personally, I am not as big of a Gordon Beckham fan as most people are – especially in Chicago. He’s good, but I don’t think he’s superstar good. My favorite prospect in the system is Tyler Flowers, and he was just obtained this past off-season from the Atlanta Braves. Then you have Aaron Poreda, who is a left-handed pitcher with an above-average fastball and poor secondary pitches. You can dream on him and see a dominating starter… if everything clicks. If not, then maybe he can be a closer. Beyond those prospects… there isn’t much that excites me at this point.

    The one thing that all three publications agree on in their evaluations is that Houston has the worst minor league system in all of baseball: A firm No. 30 out of 30. The club is really hurting from an ownership that penny-pinched on the amateur draft process… apparently not realizing that developing your own in-house talent and paying them a MLB salary for the first six years is A LOT cheaper than throwing a four- or five-year contract at a 32-year-old free agent. The undisputed No. 1 prospect in the system in 2008 first-round draft pick – and catcher – Jason Castro. My favorite player in the system is 2008 prep draftee Ross Seaton.

    Based on the FanGraphs’ Bottom 10 Organizations:

  • Biggest Surprise to be in the Bottom 10: Los Angeles (NL)
  • Best Chance to Improve Significantly in 2009: Seattle
  • Best Chance to Remain Mediocre Long Term: Houston and Detroit
  • Most Likely to Produce a Rookie of the Year in 1-3 Years: Washington
  • Club With the Best Pitching Depth: Los Angeles (NL)

  • 2009 Prospect Mine: Washington Nationals

    This probably does not come as a shock to many people, but the Washington Nationals system is not very good. There are some interesting players in the lower minors, but most of their talented Latin signings from the last few years turned out to be 35 years old and older… OK, not quite. But the grey hair should have been a tip off.

    AAA/AA
    Jordan Zimmermann had a great 2008 season and an even better spring training in 2009, which earned him a spot on the club’s opening day starting rotation. The former second round draft pick was selected out of a small college in 2007. During the 2008 season, Zimmermann allowed just 89 hits in 106.2 Double-A innings. He also posted rates of 3.29 BB/9 and 8.69 K/9. He has good four-pitch mix with a fastball that touches 94 mph, a slider, curveball and change-up.

    While Zimmermann has taken a huge step forward, Ross Detwiler has taken a step or two back after being the club’s first round pick in the same draft. Detwiler received a taste of big league action after signing, but he spent all of 2008 in High-A ball with modest results. He allowed 140 hits in 124 innings and posted rates of 4.14 BB/9 and 8.27 K/9. Detwiler has a fastball that can touch 96 mph, along with a good curveball and change-up. He’s expected to open 2009 in Double-A despite his struggles.

    A+/A
    Michael Burgess, 20, was another player that had a disappointing season in 2008. After a stunning debut in 2007 after being a supplemental first round pick out of high school, the outfielder hit just .249/.335/.469 with 18 home runs in 401 at-bats. He posted rates of 10.3 BB% and a gut-churning 33.9 K%. He “earned” a late-season promotion to High-A, where he hit .225 albeit with six homers in just 71 at-bats. Burgess is not the best fielder but he has a strong arm, which helps him immensely in right field.

    Chris Marrero was the organization’s first round draft pick in 2006 but he has been slowed by injuries (a broken leg and damaged ankle in ’08) and inconsistencies. The 20-year-old first baseman spent 2008 in High-A ball where he hit .250/.325/.453 with 11 home runs in just 256 at-bats. He also posted rates of 8.9 BB% and 21.5 K%. It was his second time in High-A and most of his numbers took a small dip. Regardless, he should open 2009 in Double-A.

    Catcher Derek Norris is an intriguing sleeper in the system, who is starting to get noticed more and more. In 2008, the 2007 fourth round pick out of high school hit .278/.444/.463 with 10 home runs and 11 steals (in 20 attempts) in 227 short-season at-bats. Norris also posted impressive rates of 21.7 BB% and 24.7 K%. Defensively, the right-handed hitter is raw but he has a strong arm and threw out almost 50 percent of base stealers last year.

    SS/R
    One of the best bits of news that the organization received this year is that Jack McGeary is going to pitch full-time for the first time since signing for almost $2 million in 2007. He had been splitting his time between baseball and finishing his degree at Stanford. The left-hander had a good year in 2008 and he allowed 61 hits in 59.2 innings. He also posted rates of 1.96 BB/9 and 9.65 K/9. McGeary has a repertoire that includes an 87-91 mph fastball, good curve and change-up.

    Outfielder Destin Hood was selected out of high school in the second round of the 2008 draft. The toolsy outfielder played both baseball and football in college and was given a large contract to forgo college. In his debut in rookie ball, Hood hit .256/.333/.349 in 86 at-bats. Catcher Adrian Nieto was another prep player given an above-average contract to sign. He hit .265/.390/.353 in 34 rookie at-bats. Following the trend, J.P. Ramirez cashed in after signing late. He hit .364 in just 11 at-bats. Impressively, he walked four times and did not strike out.

    Up Next: The Regular Season!


    2009 Prospect Mine: Tampa Bay

    Once David Price officially graduates to the Majors, the club will need another player to step up to be the No. 1 prospect, as the organization has a lot of interesting sleepers but is short on surefire impact talent. The pitching depth is much deeper than the hitting.

    AAA/AA
    David Price is up there with Baltimore’s Matt Wieters for the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball. If not for an eyebrow-raising decision to have Price begin the season in the minors, he would probably have had a great shot at winning the Rookie of the Year award. The choice could also come back to haunt the club if it struggles early on and loses too much ground to Boston and/or New York. Price pitched at four levels in the minors in 2008 and allowed 92 hits in 113 cumulative innings.

    Jeff Niemann, a former No. 1 draft pick, is out of options so he’ll open the year with the Rays – or be traded. The right-hander has immense talent but he struggles with his control and command. With Price pitching in the minors, Niemann’s biggest competition for the No. 5 spot in the rotation is Jason Hammel. Niemann’s best role may be as a closer. At Triple-A in 2008, he allowed 101 hits in 133 innings and posted rates of 3.38 BB/9 and 8.66 K/9.

    Wade Davis (third round) and Jacob McGee (fifth) were both drafted out of high school in 2004 and moved up through the minors together. McGee, though, had his ascent derailed by Tommy John surgery in mid-2007. He won’t pitch again until at least July. A healthy Davis made 19 starts in Double-A and then moved up to Triple-A where he allowed just 39 hits in 53 innings. However, he struggled with his control and saw his rates rise from 3.51 in Double-A to 4.08 BB/9. Davis could be ready for the MLB rotation by mid-2009.

    Jeremy Hellickson, who will turn 22 in the first month of the season, split 2008 between High-A and Double-A. He posted a 2.00 ERA (2.57 FIP) in 14 starts before moving up to Double-A, where he allowed 84 hits in 75.1 innings. Despite being too hittable at the senior level, Hellickson showed good control and posted rates of 1.79 BB/9 and 9.44 K/9. He works in the low-90s with his fastball but can touch 95 mph. The right-hander also has a solid curveball and change-up.

    Reid Brignac was moving up through the minors at a pretty good clip before hitting the wall in Triple-A in 2008. The shortstop prospect managed a line of just .250/.299/.412 and needs to show that he can hit for average above A-ball after batting just .260 in Double-A in 2007. His willingness to take a walk has also dried up. His home run total dropped from 17 in 2007 to nine last year, and his steals went from 15 to five.

    A+/A
    Matt Moore opened some eyes in his 2007 debut and he continued to impressive in 2008 during a repeat performance in rookie ball. He posted a 1.64 FIP with 30 hits allowed in 54.1 innings. Moore also showed excellent rates with 3.15 BB/9 and 12.75 K/9. He should get a chance to open 2009 in A-ball. The southpaw’s repertoire includes an 89-95 mph fastball, curveball and change-up.

    Right-hander Nick Barnese should join together with Moore to lead the A-ball rotation in 2009. Last season, in short-season ball, he allowed 52 hits in 66 innings of work. Barnese, 20, also posted rates of 3.27 BB/9 and 11.45 K/9. He has an 88-93 mph fastball, curveball and change-up.

    Desmond Jennings had a breakout season in 2007 only to miss most of last year due to injury. The outfielder hit .259/.360/.412 in just 85 High-A at-bats, but he is expected to be 100% healthy in 2009 when he repeats the level. The outfield depth in Tampa Bay is not nearly as deep as it once was, so the athletic Jennings could make an impact in the Majors as soon as 2010.

    SS/R
    Kyle Lobstein, a high school left-handed pitcher, was taken with the first pick of the second round in the 2008 draft. He was swayed away from signing with his hometown college of Arizona with an above-slot contract. He signed too late to play in 2008 and should begin 2009 in extended spring training before heading to rookie ball in June.

    Tim Beckham’s prospect status is built very much on reputation at this point, as he has only been on the field for half a season. He was drafted first overall in the 2008 draft out of a Georgia high school and the shortstop signed much quicker than most first round draft picks. Beckham hit .243/.297/.345 with two homers and five stolen bases in 177 rookie at-bats. He also received a two-game promotion to short-season ball and could open 2009 in A-ball with a strong spring.

    Up Next: The Washington Nationals


    2009 Prospect Mine: Boston Red Sox

    The Red Sox organization has a funny system… There are a number of top prospects in Double-A and Triple-A, as well as some very interesting names in short-season ball and the rookie league. The two A-ball teams, though, don’t have a whole lot of obvious talent.

    AAA/AA
    If it were not for the Red Sox’ strong starting-pitcher depth, Michael Bowden would probably be opening the year in the Major Leagues. The added time in Triple-A should not hurt him though, considering he spent just 40 innings there last year (as well as five in the Majors). The right-hander spent most of the year in Double-A, where he allowed 72 hits in 104.1 innings of work and posted rates of 2.07 BB/9 and 8.71 K/9. Bowden is not the type of pitcher who will put up a lot of flashy strikeout numbers but he knows how to pitch and should be a reliable No. 3 starter in the Majors. His repertoire includes an 88-93 mph fastball, curveball and change-up.

    The story of Daniel Bard may be one of the reasons why the Red Sox organization is no longer associated with High-A ball Lancaster, which is an extreme hitter’s park. Bard’s entire 2007 season was ruined after he was hit around while playing for the minor league club and posted a 10.17 ERA. Moved to the bullpen in 2008 and kept clear of Lancaster, he thrived. Bard, 23, began the year in A-ball and allowed just 12 hits in 28 innings of work with a strikeout rate of 13.82 K/9. The organization then jumped him over High-A ball and challenged him in Double-A, where he allowed 30 hits in 49.2 innings with rates of 4.71 BB/9 and 11.60 K/9. Bard’s control still needs a lot of work and he gets away with throwing one pitch most of the time: a dominating fastball that can hit triple-digits. He also has a slider.

    Lars Anderson is the club’s top prospect and he could be knocking on the big-league door by mid-2009. The former 18th-round pick out of high school was stolen by the Red Sox after he was viewed as a first- or second-round talent but fell due to signability concerns. The 21-year-old first baseman has had no trouble adjusting to pro ball with a career line of .304/.404/.480 in two years. Last season, he split the year between High-A and Double-A. At the higher of the two levels, Anderson hit .316/.436/.526 with five home runs in 133 at-bats. He had an impressive walk rate of 17.9 BB%, but struck out at a rate of 32.3 K%. He’ll likely open 2009 back in Double-A.

    Josh Reddick’s results are catching up to his potential and athletic ability. The 22-year-old left fielder played at three levels in 2008 and topped out in Double-A, where he struggled by hitting just .214 in 117 at-bats. He spent most of the season in High-A ball where he hit .343/.375/.593 with 17 homers and nine stolen bases in 312 at-bats. In total, Reddick hit 23 homers and stole 14 bases. He’ll likely return to Double-A in 2009 where he’ll attempt to curb his aggressive nature at the plate, which leads to low walk totals. On the plus side, he keeps the strikeouts down because he makes good, consistent contact. Defensively, he has a canon for an arm, which makes right field his best position.

    There is not a whole lot known about Junichi Tazawa and what he’ll bring to the table in 2009. The Japanese amateur import will likely start his pro career in Double-A after a solid showing in spring training. He allowed just five hits and one walk in nine innings, while striking out 10. His repertoire includes an 88-93 mph fastball, plus splitter, slider and curveball.

    A+/A
    The Red Sox system has produced a number of key middle infield prospects in recent years (Hanley Ramirez, anyone?) and Yamaico Navarro is one more name to remember. The 21-year-old Dominican had a breakthrough 2008 season and he split the year between two A-ball affiliates. His numbers in Lancaster were helped by the good hitting environment and he hit .348/.393/.508 with four home runs as well as rates of 6.2 BB% and 16.6 K% in 181 at-bats. Navarro is also a good fielder and should have no problem staying at shortstop.

    SS/R
    Stolmy Pimentel was considered advanced enough by the Sox to go directly to short-season ball in his North American debut in 2008. He had a solid season by allowing 51 hits in 63 innings of work. He also posted rates of 2.43 BB/9 and 8.71 K/9. Home runs were a bit of a problem and he allowed seven of them (1.00 HR/9). The right-hander has an 88-92 mph fastball, plus change-up and developing curveball. Pimentel is just 19 years old.

    Casey Kelly was a first-round draft pick in 2008 out of a Florida high school. The two-way player (SS and RHP) hit .173/.229/.255 in 98 rookie ball at-bats and .344 in 32 short-season at-bats in his debut. Kelly did not pitch last year but he will do both in 2009 as a compromise. Kelly prefers to play the field, while the organization likes his power arm. His repertoire includes an 87-91 mph fastball, curveball and developing change-up. He would likely move quicker through the system if he committed to playing just one position but his story will be an interesting one to read about in 2009.

    Michael Almanzar, like Kelly, is the son of a former Major League Baseball player. He was signed out of the Dominican Republic to a huge contract and had a nice North American debut as a 17 year old. He hit .348/.414/.472 with one home runs in 89 rookie ball at-bats. Obviously too advanced for the league, Almanzar moved up to A-ball where he hit just .207/.238/.314 in 140 at-bats. The third baseman should return to A-ball in 2009 and will probably spend the entire season there.

    Like Almanzar, Derrik Gibson had no problems hitting rookie-ball pitchers in 2008. He batted .309/.411/.394 with 14 steals in 94 at-bats. Moved up to short-season ball, the right-handed hitting shortstop hit just .086 in 35 at-bats. The most impressive part about the 19 year old is that he embraces the walk as a means of getting on base to utilize his plus-plus speed. He posted a walk rate of 13.0 BB% in rookie ball.

    Ryan Westmoreland did not sign in time to make his pro debut during the regular season in 2008. He signed a seven-figure contract as a fifth-round draft pick out of high school, who had borderline first-round talent but a strong commitment to college. The 18-year-old prospect has an outside shot of beginning the year in A-ball.

    Up Next: The Tampa Bay Rays