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Ol’ McDonald… Made the Right Choice

It might have taken James McDonald a little time to settle on pitching but it looks like it was the right choice for the former two-way player.

Originally drafted as a pitcher at the age of 18, McDonald spent his first minor league season on the mound and posted a 3.33 ERA with 39 hits and 15 walks allowed in 48.2 innings. He also struck out 8.69 batters per nine innings. Regardless, he was converted to a hitter the next season due to ongoing arm issues.

McDonald spent the next two seasons as a light-hitting outfielder and batted .220 with an OPS below .600. He struck out 71 times in 208 at-bats with 21 walks. Sensing his career was at another crossroads, McDonald moved back to the mound and crossed his fingers that the arm woes were behind him.

And they were. McDonald has been on fire since rededicating himself to the art of pitching. In his first season back on the mound, McDonald allowed just 119 hits in 143 innings. He posted rates of 4.03 BB/9 and 9.25 K/9.

His 2007 season, which ended in Double-A, was even better as he shaved off about one-and-a-half walks per nine innings and posted a strikeout rate of more than 11 K/9. In 2008, McDonald returned to Double-A where he spent most of the season. He then pitched in 22.1 Triple-A innings before getting the call to the Majors. The pitcher features the best curveball in the Dodgers’ system, as well as a good change-up and an 88-93 mph fastball. McDonald has good command of all three pitches.

McDonald ended the 2008 regular season by throwing six scoreless innings with five hits, one walk and two strikeouts. He impressed the Dodgers enough in that brief time to receive the final NLDS playoff roster spot. McDonald has come a long way in a short period of time.


Bowden Set to Battle in 2009

Michael Bowden was a supplemental first round pick of Boston’s in 2005 out of an Illinois high school. The right-hander does not get the press that some of Boston’s other prospects do, but he could very well spend a significant period of time in the Major Leagues in 2009.

He currently projects as a third or fourth starter with an 88-92 mph fastball. During a one-game stint in Boston earlier this season, Bowden also flashed a solid change-up and curveball. He held the White Sox to two runs in five innings after allowing seven hits and a walk, to go along with three strikeouts. He worked up in the strike zone a little too much and induced just three ground balls, along with 11 fly balls and four line drives.

While at Double-A earlier in the year, Bowden posted a 2.33 ERA and allowed just 72 hits in 104.1 innings. He walked 24 batters (2.07 BB/9) and struck out 101 (8.71 K/9). Promoted to Triple-A, he allowed 40 hits in as many innings and walked five (1.13 BB/9). He struck out 29 (6.53 K/9). At both levels, Bowden also struggled with allowing too many fly balls although homers were more of an issue at Triple-A (1.13 HR/9), than Double-A (0.43 HR/9).

Despite some minor struggles, Bowden has positioned himself to receive consideration for a spot in Boston’s starting rotation in 2009, especially if Clay Buchholz continues to struggle.


Revisiting the Sabathia Deal from Cleveland’s Perspective

Given the recent impact that the C.C. Sabathia trade has had on the playoffs, let’s revisit the move that brought the burly left-hander to the National League and the Milwaukee Brewers. We all know what Sabathia has done for the Brewers in the second half of the season, so let’s look at how the prospects received by Cleveland did this past season.

Outfielder Matt LaPorta was the prospect with the highest profile, as a former first round pick who has put up impressive minor league numbers. He struggled, though, after coming over from Milwaukee and hit just .233/.281/.350 in 17 Double-A games before heading to the Olympics where he was beaned by a pitch and sat out the remainder of the season as a precaution.

In a small sample size, LaPorta’s walk rate plummeted after the trade from 13.0 percent to 6.3 percent, while his strikeout rate remained roughly the same around 20 percent. His power stroke also disappeared as his ISO dropped from .288 to .117, and his OPS went from .957 to .631. He’s likely earned a ticket back to Akron in 2009 to begin the season.

Zach Jackson is a former supplemental first round pick (32nd overall in 2004 by Toronto). He is a soft-tossing lefty who projects as more of a middle or long reliever than a starter. Jackson, 25, appeared in 11 Major League games (nine starts) combined between Cleveland and Milwaukee in 2008. He posted a 5.55 ERA (4.61 FIP) in 58.1 innings. He allowed 69 hits and 16 walks to go along with 31 strikeouts (4.78 K/9). He’ll have to battle for a roster spot in 2009.

Rob Bryson was a name that wasn’t known by many people before the big trade. The 20-year-old, who has split time between the starting rotation and bullpen, spent the season in A-ball. He appeared in just seven games after coming over from Milwaukee after suffering from shoulder inflammation and possibly a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder. He has the ability to hit the mid-90s when healthy.

When the Brewers secured the playoff berth, it allowed Cleveland to pick a fourth prospect, as a player to be named later. That player is expected to be named today and should be either outfielder Michael Brantley or infielder Taylor Green.

Both prospects are interesting but they project as bench or platoon players. Neither player has much power but they are both versatile. Brantley has a slightly better chance of being a regular, at least for a few seasons, due to his amazing strike zone judgment and speed (28 stolen bases in 36 attempts). He hit .319/.391/.398 in 420 Double-A at-bats. He walked 50 times (10.6 BB%) with just 27 strikeouts (6.4 K%). His ISO is a paltry .079. Green hit .289/.380/.443 in 418 High-A at-bats. He walked 61 times (12.7 BB%) with 59 strikeouts (14.1 K%). His ISO was a more respectable .153.

Obviously, none of the players above have impacted Cleveland like Sabathia has affected Milwaukee, but 2009 could be a whole different story, especially if Milwaukee is bounced from the 2008 playoffs early on and Sabathia walks for a larger free agent payday. Until then, though, Milwaukee has definitely won this deal.


It takes a Brave Team to Draft Prep Pitchers

The Atlanta Braves organization is well-known for its preference in drafting raw high school pitchers and molding them with the club’s pitching philosophies. The 2006 draft was known for being heavy in talented college pitchers, but the Braves still followed through with the club’s original formula and selected four high school pitchers as part of its seven picks within the first three rounds of the draft.

(FYI: The club also draft high school first baseman Cody Johnson, community college shortstop Chase Fontaine, and college pitcher Dustin Evans).

Cory Rasmus, brother of St. Louis’ Colby Rasmus, was the first prep pitcher taken by Atlanta (38th overall). He has been slowed by injuries and has pitched just 13 innings in the last three seasons. He is expected to be healthy in 2009 and the right-hander should spend most of the year in A-ball.

Steve Evarts (43rd) has also pitched far less in the past three seasons than the Braves had hoped he would, in part due to injuries and in part due to disciplinary reasons. When he’s been on the mound, the young lefty has pitched well and he has a 2.30 career ERA in 98 innings, having allowed just 86 hits and 17 walks, with 81 strikeouts.

Jeff Locke (51st) has at least been able to stay on the mound for three seasons with good, but not spectacular, results. This season, his first in full-season ball, Locke allowed 150 hits in 139.2 innings but walked just 38 batters and struck out 113. The lefty obviously has excellent control, but he needs to miss more bats if he is going to be successful in the upper minors.

Chad Rodgers (100th) was the fourth high school pitcher taken and the third lefty. He, like Locke, played his first full season of ball in 2008 after two stints in Rookie ball. Rodgers went just 2-10 with a 4.53 ERA and split time between the starting rotation and the bullpen. He showed good control (2.76 BB/9) and struck out more batters than Locke (7.59 K/9) but also had trouble missing bats and allowed more than one hit per inning.

It’s true what they say: Young pitchers will break your heart. This quartet of talented pitchers have opportunities that millions dream of, but few realize. It’s about time they start to take advantage of those chances.


Time Running Out For Walker

The Pittsburgh Pirates drafted Neil Walker out of a local high school in the first round of the 2004 draft (11th overall). At the time, he was a young, promising, switch-hitting catcher. More than four years later, though, Walker is on the cusp of the Major Leagues but he has been converted to the hot corner.

The move from behind the plate really does hurt Walker’s potential quite a bit. With catchers, any type of offence is considered a bonus, as long as they play solid defence and call a good game. At third base, though, the bat is under the microscope as this position is traditionally a power position.

In five minor league seasons, Walker’s line looks like this: .273/.320/.426. That is OK, but not spectacular for a former No. 1 draft pick hoping to play third base at the Major League level, especially given that Walker hit just .242/.280/.414 in 505 at-bats during the 2008 Triple-A season. On the plus side, he did hit a career-high 16 homers and drove in 80 runs.

On the downside, he walked just 5.4% of the time, had an OPS of .697 and an ISO of .172, none of which screams impact bat. Walker will be just 24 next season but he will need to make some adjustments and get his bat going if he hopes to avoid getting left behind. Earlier this season, Pittsburgh obtained top third base prospect Andy LaRoche from the Los Angeles Dodges and he has a head start on claiming the title of third baseman of the future.


Hope for the Future

Things may not have gone as planned in the Bronx this season, but the New York Yankees club has received some encouraging bullpen contributions from some young pitchers.

Jose Veras, 27, may be a little older than the typical rookie, but he had just 21.1 innings of Major League experience before the 2008 season began. The right-hander has been solid throughout the season by allowing 50 hits and 27 walks in 56 innings. He has also fanned 60 batters. Veras does have a few things to work on for next season, including lowering his walk totals (4.34 BB/9) and keeping the ball in the park a little bit better (1.13 HR/9).

Edwar Ramirez, 27, received a lot of press last season after posting some ridiculous minor league numbers, thanks to a plus-plus change-up. The right-hander found the Major Leagues to be a little more challenging (8.14 ERA in 21 innings in 2007) but he settled in nicely in 2008. In 54 innings this season, Ramirez has allowed 43 hits and 24 walks. He has also struck out 61 batters. Like Veras, Ramirez needs to keep the walks down (3.98 BB/9) and avoid the long ball (1.16 HR/9). He was also helped by a BABIP of .281.

Regardless of how well Veras and Ramirez duplicate their 2008 seasons in 2009, both players have turned out to be wise acquisitions by the Yankees (a club that does not receive enough credit for its scouting). Veras was signed as a minor league free agent after spending time with the Tampa Bay Rays and the Texas Rangers organizations. Ramirez, originally a signee with the Angels, was found in an independent baseball league.

Something tells me, though, that these two players have more left in the tank.


Better Late Than Never

Michael Aubrey is a name you may have forgotten, unless you’re a Cleveland Indians fan. The first baseman is a former No. 1 draft pick (11th overall in 2003) out of Tulane University. Now 26, Aubrey is finally in the Major Leagues for the first time – a September cup of coffee.

Aubrey was considered the second-best, draft-eligible college hitter prior to the draft (Rickie Weeks was the top choice), according to Baseball America. The is what BA said at the time:

…Aubrey is a better pure hitter than any other college player in the nation. He projects as a .300-plus hitter with lots of doubles and 15-20 homers in the majors. He has a great approach at the plate and rarely gets fooled.

So, what took so long? What caused Aubrey to take six seasons to get to the Majors? And does he still have something in the tank, or is he a shadow of his former self.

The answer to the first question is: Injuries. In his debut season, after signing for more than $2 million, Aubrey played 38 games in A-ball. The next season he played 98 games between High-A ball and Double-A. Then in 2005 he managed just 28 Double-A games. The 2006 season was even worse, injury-wise, as Aubrey appeared in 14 games. The next year, though, he managed a whopping 65 games despite ongoing injuries. This season, Aubrey was able to appear 97 times during the minor league’s 130-game schedule.

The numbers for Aubrey this season do not inspire a lot of confidence, especially given his position at first base… and this leads us to the answer for the second question above. At Double-A, he hit .282/.333/.456 with two homers in 103 at-bats. He walked 7.2 percent of the time, and struck out at a rate of 11.7 percent. After a promotion to Triple-A, Aubrey hit .281/.328/.418 with seven homers in 285 at-bats. He walked just 5.3 percent of the time, with a strikeout rate of 14 percent.

At Double-A, Aubrey’s OPS was .790 and at Triple-A it was .736. His ISO at Double-A was .175 and .137 at Triple-A. An average ISO is considered to be .120, with most “power hitters” exceeding .200. So it’s clear, Aubrey is not a power hitter. And he doesn’t walk much. And he’s never hit above .283 at Double-A or Triple-A.

That said, Aubrey does have value. A .280 average isn’t bad for a bench player. He also swings from the left side, which gives him more value off the pine. Aubrey was also considered an excellent defender coming out of college so he could be a solid late-game option in the field. A part-time role might also help lessen the injuries that have plagued Aubrey’s career to this point.

All this suggests that Aubrey might be better suited for a career in the National League where bench players have more opportunities for regular playing time. In Cleveland, the first base/DH slots are pretty much filled with the likes of Travis Hafner (albeit apparently in a downward spiral) and Ryan Garko on the Major League roster. Cleveland also has first base prospects hot on Aubrey’s heels, such as Beau Mills, Matt LaPorta (currently playing the outfield), Jordan Brown, and Nick Weglarz (also seeing time in the outfield).

There is no question Aubrey still has value to a Major League club, but that team is most likely not Cleveland.


Potomac Sinks Myrtle Beach with Offensive Bursts

Things may not be rosy in Washington, but the Nationals High-A ball affiliate had an excellent season that culminated with a Carolina League championship title. The Potomac Nationals crushed the Myrtle Beach Pelicans by scoring 35 runs in four games. With any luck, one or two members of the Potomac offence will develop and start driving in runs for Washington in the near future.

Truth be told, though, many of the players that had a big series project as future bench players, including Boomer Whiting (who hit .375 in the playoffs). The speedy outfielder split the season between two A-ball affiliates and hit .270/.370/.342 in 374 at-bats. He stole 47 bases, walked 52 times with 64 strikeouts, and scored 77 runs. Unfortunately, Whiting, 24, hit just 16 extra base hits all season.

Infielder Daniel Lyons (.300) also had a nice series at the top of the order and scored a handful of runs. Like Whiting, Lyons split the 2008 regular season between both A-ball affiliates and hit .272/.392/.405 with 23 stolen bases, 77 walks with 96 strikeouts, and scored 83 runs. He has a little more sock in his bat and banged out 43 extra base hits, including 30 doubles.

Jhonatan Solano, normally a defensive-minded catcher, earned MVP honors in the series for batting .429 with two homers, four RBI and five runs scored. Overall in the playoffs, he hit .346. On the season, the 22-year-old hit .250/.312/.350 with five homers in 280 at-bats. Solano could make the Majors as a back-up catcher based solely on his receiving skills, positive attitude and limitless energy.


Mississippi Braves Never Say Die

The Mississippi Braves players did not like to make things easy on themselves in 2008. The club started off the year with a 6-20 record in April but still managed to make the 2008 Southern League (Double-A) playoffs. The Braves then went on to win the league championship over the prospect-studded Carolina Mudcats, but all three wins occurred in extra innings.

The top hitters in the playoffs were infielder J.C. Holt (.323), first baseman Kala Ka’aihue (.364), and Jordan Schafer (.333). Holt, 25, was a former star outfielder at Louisiana State University and he actually began the season in Triple-A, where he struggled and hit just .212/.333/.228 in the first month. Upon his demotion to Double-A, Holt picked things up and hit .285/.351/.397 with 22 stolen bases in 393 at-bats.

Ka’aihue’s first taste of Double-A in 2007 was bitter as he hit just .127/.221/.186 with 51 strikeouts in 118 at-bats after dominating High-A ball earlier that season. The 2008 season was a different story though as Ka’aihue hit .274/.417/.457 with 14 homers and 88 walks in 376 at-bats. His brother Kila Ka’aihue, 24, also had a breakout season by hitting 37 homers and driving in 100 RBI before earning a September call-up to the Kansas City Royals.

Schafer, considered the Braves top hitting prospect as 2007 wore down, began the year on a low note with a suspension that was handed down in the spring. He missed the first two months of the season and had an up-and-down year. Schafer hit .269/.378/.471 with 10 homers and 12 stolen bases in 297 at-bats. He picked things up in August by hitting .323 with six homers and carried that momentum into the playoffs.

All three players should move on to Triple-A for the 2009 season, one step away from realizing their dream of a big league career.


Thunder Rumbles to Title

The Trenton Thunder (NY AL) won the 2008 Eastern League title last Sunday with a Game 4 victory over the Akron Aeros (Cleveland). It was the club’s second Double-A championship in as many years.

The club received a late-season spark from catcher Francisco Cervelli, who missed much of the season with a broken wrist suffered in a spring training collision at the plate. Cervelli hit .315/.432/.384 in 24 games. The 22-year-old was signed as a non-drafted free agent out of Venezuela in 2003 and projects as a solid big league second-string catcher.

Overall, the club featured a number of veteran players but prospects Jose Tabata and Austin Jackson had large roles in the season’s final outcome. Tabata had an inconsistent season but still hit .272/.339/.368 with 18 stolen bases as a 21-year-old. He was then used as bait to acquire Xavier Nady from the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Jackson, 21, hit .285/.354/.419 with 19 stolen bases, 56 walks and nine homers in 520 at-bats. his strikeout totals (113) continue to be a concern, especially with his limited power output to this point. That said, there are signs – 33 doubles – that the power is developing.

Another key ingredient for the Thunder title was the starting rotation, with five starters making at least 16 starts and posting ERAs under 3.70. All five pitchers also allowed fewer than one hit per inning pitched. George Kontos led the staff with 151.2 innings pitched, followed by Jason Jones (team leading 13 wins), Phil Coke (2.51 ERA), southpaw Chase Wright and Eric Hacker (who allowed just three homers in more than 90 innings). The general feeling is that Kontos and Coke have the best chance to help the big league club in the future.