The Sacramento River Cats repeated as Pacific Coast League (Triple-A) champions on the weekend after defeating Oklahoma (Texas) in the fourth game of a best-of-five series.

It was the left-handed arm of one of Oakland’s top pitching prospects that helped to lead the team to victory, as Brett Anderson snared two victories in the series despite having never pitched in a Triple-A game before the playoffs began.

In fact, Anderson, 20, opened the season in High-A ball where he made 14 appearances (13 starts) and allowed 68 hits in 74 innings. He walked 18 and struck out 80 with an average fastball, three pitches that can be plus at times: curve ball, slider, change-up, as well as excellent command.

Anderson was then promoted to Double-A where he made six starts and allowed 27 hits in 31 innings. He walked nine and stuck out 38. Obviously impressed by the 20-year-old, who was acquired from Arizona last off-season in the Dan Haren trade, the Oakland decision makers promoted Anderson to Triple-A for the playoffs.

He made his first appearance in relief during the first-round series against Salt Lake (Los Angeles AL). He pitched four innings of relief and allowed three runs on six hits and two walks. He also struck out three and pitched well enough to earn his first career save.

With his feet wet, Anderson was then inserted into the starting rotation for the PCL championship series and he started Game 1. He worked five innings and allowed two runs on six hits and a walk. He added three strikeouts and took the victory against a lineup that included a number of minor league veterans, including Ryan Roberts, and Chris Shelton, as well as prospects like Max Ramirez, and John Mayberry.

In Game 4, Anderson was even better as he pitched seven strong innings and allowed just two runs on five hits and three walks. He added three more strikeouts and induced 11 groundball outs, compared to six flyball outs.

To the Sacramento Bee newspaper, manager Todd Steverson said of Anderson, “He stepped up. Throwing in the series-clinching game and being able to keep his poise the way he did, he’s got a bright future.”

Not even old enough to drink, Anderson recorded two wins and a save in his first three Triple-A games against two of the top teams in the league. He has a bright future, indeed.

It’s not often that a player with Chris Carter’s talent spends time with three clubs in the span of two weeks. With 39 dingers, the hulking infielder tied for second overall in minor league home runs in 2008 while playing for Oakland’s High-A ball affiliate in Stockton.

Carter, now 21, was originally drafted in the 15th round of the 2005 draft out of a Las Vegas high school. He spent three seasons in the White Sox organization before being sent to Arizona on Dec. 3, 2007 for fellow slugger Carlos Quentin. Eleven days later, Carter was part of the bounty that netted Arizona pitcher Dan Haren from the Oakland Athletics.

In his first full season in the minors in 2007, after two Rookie ball campaigns, Carter slugged 25 homers, drove in 93 runs and hit .291/.383/.522. His power numbers took another step forward this season with the Oakland organization, including an ISO increase from .231 to .310, while some of his other numbers took a step back. Carter hit .259/.361/.569 with 156 strikeouts and 77 walks in 506 at-bats. His strikeout rate rose from 24% in 2007 to 30.8% in 2008, while his walk rate remained roughly the same. Carter’s batting average was a bit of a disappointment but his BABIP was .296, compared to .336 in 2007.

Oakland has another first base prospect, Sean Doolittle, who played most of the season on the same squad as Carter, before a late-season promotion to Double-A. Carter spent time at third base to accommodate his teammate but his defence is below average at both third base (41 games, 14 errors) and first base.

Doolittle, a slick fielder, is not a classic slugger like Carter and is more of a hitter in the mold of John Olerud or Lyle Overbay. The two players should open 2009 on the same team again and it will be interesting to see which player takes the next big step needed to secure a future role on the big league club.

As Eric pointed out in his post last night in regards to the 2003 Eastern League All Star Game’s South Division roster, not many of the players went on to great – or even average – careers.

As I did with my post yesterday regarding the North Division roster, I am going to take a quick look at a few of the players who basically fell off the map after their All-Star appearances.

Scott Ackerman (Expos) was a defensive-minded catcher who found out pretty quickly that he could not hit pitching above Single-A baseball. Oddly, be made the All-Star team in his one and only season above A-ball despite hitting just .223/.263/.360 on the year with 17 walks in 292 at-bats.

Josh McKinley (Expos) was considered a bit of a reach as the 11th overall pick out of a Pennsylvania high school in the 1998 draft. He had just one OK offensive season in the minors (2003 with a line of .288/.367/.467 ). McKinley tried to extend his playing career by playing a multitude of positions but he spent just one more season in the minors – at Double-A split between the Montreal and Texas organizations – before hanging it up for good due to injury.

Juan Richardson (Phillies) was once considered a promising, “toolsy” prospect, who was signed out of the Dominican Republic. The third baseman never fully embraced the “patient approach” and was mostly an all-or-nothing type player who came up with nothing.

Jeff Inglin (Phillies) was originally drafted by the Chicago White Sox in the 16th round of the 1996 draft out of USC. Oddly, he put up solid power, patience, speed numbers, with decent batting averages, for seven seasons with the Chicago organization but did not sniff the Majors. He drove in 100 runs or more twice, stole 30 bases once and hit 24 homers with 72 walks in Double-A at the age of 23. He signed with the Phillies organization as a minor league free agent and made the Double-A All-Star team at the age of 27 after spending parts of three seasons in Triple-A. Inglin hung around Double-A for two more seasons with two other organizations and then walked away from his playing career.

Jeremy Ware (Expos) was a former Canadian Olympian who was never able to hit for a high average in the minor leagues, due in part to a lack of patience at the plate. He eventually found his way to independent league baseball. His Double-A All-Star appearance came in his fifth season of Double-A at the age of 27.

Josh Karp (Expos)… Are you noticing a theme here? No. 1, there were a lot of Expos prospects in this All-Star game; and No. 2, a lot of them turned out to be failed prospects. Karp was the sixth overall selection of the 2001 draft out of UCLA but had his pro career ruined by injuries. It also did not help that he was over-hyped coming out of his junior season of college.

Homero Rivera (Tigers) was another selection to the All-Star squad that left you wondering: “What were they thinking?” The Dominican southpaw had a K/9 rate of just 6.65 in his career as a middle reliever. In 2003, his last full season in the minors, Rivera vultured 13 wins in 72.2 innings but allowed 76 hits and posted a K/9 rate of just 4.46.

We all know predicting the next great player is no easy task for fans, writers and analysts, and it certainly is not any easier for the baseball minds that select minor league All-Star teams.

As you know by now, my colleague Eric has taken a look at the players who have successfully made it to the Major Leagues from the Double-A Eastern League’s 2003 All-Star Game’s North Division roster. As a complement to that, I am going to look at a few of the players who failed to make good on their potential after that showcase.

A number of the infielders on the North Division roster failed to achieve Major League success, including Chris Basak (Mets), Craig Brazell (Mets), Mike Cervenak (Giants), Alejandro Freire (Giants), and Brian Myrow (Dodgers).

Basak was 24 at the time and his minor league numbers had been inconsistent. His overall stats at Double-A that season were not overly special (.272/.332/.396). Basak has had just one Major League at-bat, which came with the Yankees in 2007. He spent 2008 in the Yankees and Twins organizations as a back-up infielder.

Brazell was 23 at the time of the All-Star game and was considered a fairly good prospect with intriguing raw power. The former fifth round pick out of high school, though, has never been able to tap into it consistently while maintaining a decent average and respectable on-base numbers. He did make some noise in 2007 when he slugged 39 homers in the minors for the Royals. That earned him five games at the Major League level, where he recorded one hit in four at-bats. Brazell took his powerful bat to Japan in 2008.

Cervenak is an interesting story, even though he was 26 when he was selected to the All-Star Game in 2003. He was signed by the Yankees out of an independent baseball league and spent four seasons in Double-A and another four years in Triple-A before making his Major League debut this season with the Phillies at the age of 31. He appeared in eight Major League games and knocked out two hits.

Freire was another minor league veteran first baseman, who originally signed with Houston out of Venezuela. He hasn’t played in the minors since 2006. Myrow is another former independent league player, who has earned short stints in the Majors with San Diego each of the last two seasons.

Outfielder Jeremy Owens (Red Sox) and Josh Rabe (Twins) both flashed promising tools early in their careers. Owens displayed 20-20 potential, but he could never maintain a respectable average and struck out far too many times in his attempt to be Mike Cameron. Rabe has had a couple of chances at the Major League level with the Twins, but he never showed enough power for a corner outfielder.

Cameron Reimers (Blue Jays) was a pitcher who put up some nice win totals and ERAs despite having below average stuff, which caught up to him in Triple-A. He ended his minor league career two years after his All-Star appearance.

Brent Schoening (Twins) won 12 games in 2006 with average stuff at best and then went on to pitch mostly out of the bullpen in Triple-A for two seasons before hanging up his spikes. David Shepard (Yankees) and Josh Stevens (Red Sox) were relievers who spent their entire careers bouncing between independent baseball leagues and minor league baseball. Shepard last pitched in 2006, while Stevens lasted until 2007.

Kevin Vent (Giants) made the All-Star game in 2003 and received a late-season promotion to Triple-A. Sadly, the 26-year-old reliever never pitched again in the minors after that season.

Tomorrow, I’ll take a look at the 2003 South Division roster for failed prospects, after Eric looks at those who made good on their potential later tonight.

There are two talented catchers in the upper levels of the minor leagues and both of those players were selected in the first round of the 2007 draft. Matt Wieters was recently named the Minor League Player of the Year by Baseball America, while J.P. Arencibia is not far behind in the discussion of the best catching prospects in baseball.

Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles
Ht: 6-4, Wt: 230
Born: May 1986
Drafted: 2007 fifth overall, Georgia Tech

Wieters does it all very well: He hits, he plays defence and he leads by example. The hulking catcher did not play pro ball in his draft year due to signing late but he began 2008 in High-A ball. He hit .345/.448/.576 with 15 homers in 229 at-bats. Wieters was then promoted to Double-A where he performed even better. He hit .365/.460/.625 with 12 homers in 208 at-bats. The switch-hitter batted .393 against southpaws and .354 versus right-handers. Overall on the season, Wieters walked 82 times with 76 strikeouts. Defensively, he nailed 40 percent of base runners attempting to steal. He also made nine errors with three passed balls.

J.P. Arencibia | Toronto Blue Jays
Ht: 6-1, Wt: 210
Born: January 1986
Drafted: 2007 21st overall, University of Tennessee

One of the biggest differences between the two players is Arencibia’s lack of patience, especially compared to Wieters’. The Jays prospect walked just 18 times on the season with 101 strikeouts in 510 combined at-bats. Even so, Arencibia hit .315/.344/.560 with 13 homers in 248 High-A at-bats. He was then promoted to Double-A where he hit .282/.302/.496 with 14 homers in 262 at-bats. Overall, he drove in 105 runs. Arencibia has more raw power potential than Wieters, but the Orioles catcher is the superior hitter at this point. Arencibia is also still a little rough around the edges when it comes to catching (10 errors, 15 passed balls), although he did throw out 34 percent of base stealers.

The Jays are sending Arencibia to the Arizona Fall League specifically to work on his patience at the plate and they do not care how well he hits as long as he works the count to his advantage. Wieters has also been sent to the Arizona Fall League, which is a little puzzling considering his already-solid skills and the long season that he endured during his first pro season. A regular full season of minor league baseball is already much longer than a college season, especially when a player is squatted down behind home plate. But that said, a little extra hard work never hurt anybody.

Money may not buy happiness, but it does allow you the flexibility to take some risks. The New York Yankees have taken a few gambles in recent years during the annual amateur draft. The most-publicized risk was drafting North Carolina State right-hander Andrew Brackman (and paying him $3.35 million), who needed Tommy John surgery before he would even throw one professional pitch.

Another move one year earlier, though, that flew under the radar was drafting college reliever Mark Melancon out of the University of Arizona. Melancon was widely considered the best – and most advanced – college reliever in the draft. But he was suffering from a strained elbow ligament, and whispers of Tommy John surgery persisted.

Melancon fell out of the first round of the draft and was snapped up by the Yankees with the 284th selection in the ninth round. The Yankees gave him third round money ($600,000) and sent him to the New York Penn League. Melancon had not pitched since April due to the elbow injury and he lasted just 6.2 innings in pro ball before being shut down to go under the knife.

The 2007 season was a year of rehab for the right-hander but he came back strong in 2008. Melancon began the season in High-A ball and allowed 26 hits and six walks in 25.1 innings of work. He also struck out 20. Melancon was then promoted to Double-A where he worked 49.2 innings and allowed 32 hits and 12 walks. He also struck out 47 and induced two groundball outs for every flyball out. Melancon then finished out the regular season in Triple-A. He allowed just 11 hits and four walks in 20 innings. He struck out 22 batters.

Overall, in his first season back from surgery, Melancon was 8-1 with a 2.27 ERA in 95 innings. He allowed 69 hits and just 22 walks, which is impressive considering command is supposed to be the last thing that returns after Tommy John surgery. It’s clear Melancon is close to being a large part of the future of the Yankees’ bullpen.

*The 2006 draft was a huge help to the Yankees’ pitching depth, as the organization also scooped up Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, Zach McAllister, George Kontos, Dellin Betances and Daniel McCutchen.

The Cincinnati Reds have two middle infielders headed to the annual Arizona Fall League that have an opportunity to contribute to the major league club, and they also represent good value as former third round and seventh round draft picks.

Chris Valaika, who was signed out of Cal State Fullerton University, had a successful beginning to his 2008 season when he hit .363/.393/.585 in 135 High-A at-bats, with seven homers. He was then promoted to Double-A, where he posted a line of .301/.352/.443 with 11 homers in 379 at-bats. Valaika is not a power hitter but he could be good for 10-15 homers at the major league level, while playing a passable shortstop. His lack of patience has haunted him throughout his pro career and he walked just 35 times in 514 at-bats this season. The right-handed batter handled Double-A southpaws with ease and posted a line of .343/.385/.565 in 108 at-bats.

Justin Turner followed a similar path to Valaika this season. Turner began in High-A ball and hit .316/.384/.390 in 136 at-bats. The infielder, who relies more on small ball than a power stroke, then hit .289/.359/.432 in 280 Double-A at-bats with eight homers to go along with 33 walks and 54 strikeouts. Turner, a right-handed batter, should be valuable coming off the bench for the Reds after hitting .372/.423/.535 against southpaws in Double-A (86 at-bats). The soon-to-be 24-year-old should begin 2009 in Triple-A and could appear in Cincinnati before mid-season.

Valaika and Turner likely won’t unseat incumbents Brandon Phillips and Alex Gonzalez in 2009, but they could give some fringe major league veterans a run for their money, like Jolbert Cabrera, Jerry Hairston, and Andy Phillips.

The Arizona Fall League will be getting underway shortly and the annual event will feature some of the top upper-level prospects in the game, including a plethora of sleepers and names you need to know. The Minnesota Twins organization has some of the best minor league pitching depth in the game and the club is sending four pitchers to play for the Phoenix Desert Dogs: Rob Delaney, Tim Lahey, Anthony Slama, and Jeff Manship.

Delaney was signed as a non-drafted free agent out of St. John’s University in 2006. The right-hander was rather hittable in college but has found minor league baseball to be pretty easy the past two seasons. In 2007, he began the year in A-ball and posted a 0.77 ERA in 46.2 games with 26 hits allowed (4.82 H/9), to go along with six walks (1.16 BB/9) and 56 strikeouts (10.80 K/9). He then posted a 1.54 ERA in 23.1 High-A innings. In 2008, Delaney started the year back in High-A before finishing in Double-A. His season stats included a 1.23 ERA in 66 innings with 44 hits allowed, along with 11 walks and 72 strikeouts. Right-handers hit just .113 against him at Double-A. Delaney’s best pitches are a low-90s fastball and a plus slider.

Tim Lahey was almost a Chicago Cub after being taken by the organization in the December 2007 Rule 5 draft. Lahey is the rawest of the four Twins pitchers in the AFL, as he was originally a catcher in pro ball before a conversion to the mound after his first pro season in 2004. Pitching at Triple-A in 2008, Lahey posted a 5.43 ERA in 63 innings and allowed 69 hits and 23 walks. He also struck out 53 batters and induced almost 1.5 ground ball outs per fly ball out. Left-handed batters hit .378 against him. Like Delaney, Lahey features a fastball and slider, but his heater has more sink when it’s on.

Anthony Slama was a 39th round draft pick out of the University of San Diego in 2006 and has come a long way in a short time. The right-hander features an 88-92 mph fastball, slider and plus change-up, which makes minor league hitters look foolish. After a debut season that saw him beat up on hitters in the low minors, Slama made High-A ball hitter look bad in 2008. He posted a 1.01 ERA in 71 innings with 43 hits and 24 walks allowed. He also whiffed 110 batters and induced more than 1.5 ground balls for every fly ball. Right-handers hit just .154 against him.

Jeff Manship is the most well-known of the four pitchers on the prospect landscape. He was a star pitcher at the University of Notre Dame and that got him drafted in the 14th round of the 2006 draft. Manship dominated the low minors and did not seem to have any difficulty with hitters until reaching Double-A midway through the 2008 season. In 76.2 innings, he allowed 90 hits and 24 walks with 62 strikeouts. Right-handers hit .311 against him at Double-A. Manship features a diverse repertoire with two fastballs (he works around 88-91 mph), a curveball, slider and change-up. Of the four pitchers headed to the AFL, he is the most likely to be a big league starter, although he projects as more of an innings-eating fourth starter.

From the Washington Post, March 9, 2005:

Jim Bowden, the general manager of the Washington Nationals, picked up his cell phone earlier this week and punched in the speed dial for Dana Brown, his scouting director. Bowden wanted to discuss Ian Desmond, a shortstop the Nationals brought into big league camp after taking him in the third round of last year’s draft.

“Dana,” Bowden said. “You made a mistake when you drafted Desmond.”

Brown was shocked. “Why?” he asked.

“Because you took him in the third round instead of the first round,” Bowden replied.

…

So, even though Desmond will almost certainly start the year at Class A Savannah, the obvious question arises: If Cristian Guzman, the starting shortstop, was injured, would the Nationals look to Desmond?

“I wouldn’t be afraid to put him out there,” Robinson said.

“I wouldn’t be afraid to bring him to the big leagues to play defense,” Bowden said.

Ultimately, Bowden said, Desmond’s bat will determine how quickly he rises.

* * *
My what a difference four years can make – three if you consider Ian Desmond was considered by Baseball America to be the Nationals’ fourth-best prospect heading into 2006. After being the talk of the town in 2005, Desmond has endured some lean times with the bat. The slick fielder has just finished his first full season at Double-A after spending three years in A-ball despite the glowing remarks in the article snippet above.

During the 2008 season, Desmond hit .251/.318/.406 in 323 at-bats. He walked just 31 times and struck out in 78 at-bats, but Desmond has shown some promising power in the last two seasons and could be a 15-15 man at the Major League level, with above-average defence and a few stolen bases tossed in for good measure.

One area Desmond needs to improve in is his at-bats against right-handed pitchers. His OPS was almost 150 points higher against southpaws. A more patient approach could also help him get into better hitters’ counts… He appeared to be making headway in 2007 when he posted a .357 OBP, but he regressed in Double-A and was closer to his career OBP of .312. As well, Desmond appears to put too much pressure on himself with runners in scoring position and hit just .198.

With incumbent Cristian Guzman resigning with Washington recently through 2010 ($16 million), the Nationals organization essential bought Desmond two more years of development time, which it looks like he’ll need. And unfortunately for Washington, the organization has no other shortstop prospects anywhere near ready to help out. Desmond will continue to work on his bat during the 2008 Arizona Fall League with an eye on 2011.

The 2005 amateur draft was a college-heavy draft in the first round. Twenty of the first 30 picks came from college programs, and only five prep pitchers were chosen in the first 35 selections when also considering the supplemental first round.

Those five pitchers – Chris Volstad, Mark Pawelek, Aaron Thompson, Chaz Roe, and Ryan Tucker – have followed very different career paths in the last three seasons.

Volstad is the most accomplished of the group and currently has 56.1 Major League innings to his credit, all having come this season. He was also the first of the quintet to be drafted at 16th overall by Florida. The sinker-slider specialist spend about three seasons in the minor leagues before making his MLB debut in 2008. In 10 games, he has posted a 3.20 ERA with 53 hits allowed, 26 walks and 37 strikeouts. Low strikeout rates have plagued Volstad throughout his minor league career (6.20 K/9 career), but the 6’8” right-hander gets a good downward plane on the ball and induced two ground ball outs for every fly ball out this season at Double-A. His fastball can reach the mid-90s when he needs it to.

Pawelek is a sad story. Blessed with immense natural talent, the right-hander has rarely been motivated in pro ball and has been disciplined numerous times by the Chicago Cubs organization, which drafted him 20th overall in 2005. Pawelek was most recently sent home early for the season after failing to acquire a passport in a timely manner for a trip to Canada. Despite solid numbers in his first two pro seasons, Pawelek has spent parts of four seasons in short season ball. He may finally be out of chances with the Cubs.

Thompson was the second high school pitcher selected by the Marlins in the top 35 draft choices. He does not possess the same stuff as Volstad, but Thompson was considered more polished coming out of high school and had better command and control. However, he has not advanced quite as quickly as Volstad. The left-handed has struggled this year in Double-A by posting an ERA of 5.62 in 16 starts. He has allowed 111 hits in 81.2 innings to go along with 40 walks and 53 strikeouts. Thompson’s biggest problem is that when he’s off, he’s really off. In his last 10 starts, he has had four games where he has allowed 39 hits and 25 runs in 15.1 innings. He will look to make up for lost time with a stint in the Arizona Fall League.

Chaz Roe was nabbed with the 32nd overall pick by the Colorado Rockies. He has moved at a steady pace and spent most of the season at Double-A despite beginning the year in High-A ball. Like Thompson, Roe will also spend time pitching in the Arizona Fall League. In 16 Double-A starts, the 6’5” righty has allowed 98 hits and 34 walks in 105.1 innings. He has also struck out 70 batters. Like Volstad, Roe has yet to strike out a lot of batters, given his good stuff, but he does induce his fair share of ground balls (1.6 ground ball outs per fly ball outs) at Double-A.

Tucker was Mr. Dead Red coming out of high school. He had an excellent fastball but not a whole lot more. His fastball was good enough to dominate Double-A hitters this year, but not Major Leaguers. At the lower lever, Tucker posted a 1.58 ERA in 91 innings with 37 walks and 74 strikeouts. At the Major League level, Tucker has posted an 8.39 ERA with 42 hits allowed in 34.1 innings, along with 22 walks and 26 strikeouts. Major Leaguers have simply sat on his fastball, which is one of the reasons why some scouts have projected Tucker to be a big league reliever since his prep days.

It’s always fun to watch prospects diverge from a draft class.