With the deadline for 2008 amateur draft picks to sign professional contracts expiring on Friday, it is a perfect time to reflect on drafts past. Let’s take a look at the Top 5 picks in the last five drafts (prior to 2008) and see who the best pick was and how they are doing now.

2007 Top 5: David Price, Mike Moustakas, Josh Vitters, Daniel Moskos, Matt Wieters

Price (Tampa) made his Triple-A debut for the Tampa Bay organization last night after posting an 11-0 record and sub-2.00 ERA in High-A and Double-A ball in 2008. Wieters (Baltimore) is also looking like a steal with the fifth overall selection for Baltimore. Given how Moskos (Pittsburgh) has imploded, wouldn’t Pittsburgh fans love to have the catcher hitting .353/.453/.602?

2006 Top 5: Luke Hochevar, Greg Reynolds, Evan Longoria, Brad Lincoln, Brandon Morrow

Hochevar (Kansas City) looks like he is going to be an OK, but not great, big league pitcher. Longoria (Tampa), on the other hand, looks like a future star. The rookie is hitting .278/.352/.533 with 22 homers in 381 at-bats. Reynolds (Colorado) and Lincoln (Pittsburgh) have been slowed by injuries – a disturbing trend among top-drafted college hurlers in recent years.

2005 Top 5: Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Jeff Clement, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun

Upton (Arizona) is still showing signs of being a superstar-in-the-making but he is still experiencing growing pains. Of the three third basemen taken in the Top 5, Braun (Milwaukee) was the afterthought but he has been the best Major Leaguer so far. Zimmerman (Washington) has struggled these last two seasons after a great rookie season in 2006. Gordon (Kansas City) is showing signs of improvement after a disappointing rookie season, but he is still not hitting for average or power.

2004 Top 5: Matt Bush, Justin Verlander, Philip Humber, Jeff Niemann, Mark Rogers

Bush is by far the worst No. 1 overall pick in years. Verlander (Detroit) wins as the best player among these Top 5 almost by default given that he is the only one who has been consistently healthy. Like many Detroit Tigers, though, his 2008 season has been a disappointment. Niemann (Tampa) and Humber (Minnesota via NY Mets) both have a shot to be average big league pitchers, which is a far cry from their previous potentials.

2003 Top 5: Delmon Young, Rickie Weeks, Kyle Sleeth, Tim Stauffer, Chris Lubanski

The last three selections on this list are a motley crew. Weeks (Milwaukee) may be the most overrated player in baseball given that he has never hit well but people continue to refer to him as a good hitter on the cusp of breaking out. It’s been four years now. Young (Minnesota via Tampa) is the best player of this quintet but his lack of improvement is disappointing. Yes, he is young but his 2008 season is shaping up to look a lot like his disappointing 2007 campaign. Sleeth is already out of baseball and Stauffer probably isn’t far behind.

Ryan Strieby’s 2008 performance has taken a lot of people by surprise.

The Detroit Tiger’s fourth round selection in 2006 had an off-season in his first full year in 2007 in A-ball with a line of .253/.347/.422 with 16 homers in 443 at-bats. There were signs that improvements could be coming with 63 walks and just 78 strikeouts. He also had a .275 BABIP.

No one, though, would have predicted a .140 jump in slugging percentage with a promotion to the pitcher-friendly Florida State League in 2008. Strieby has been immensely powerful in the last month and a half (157 at-bats) with 19 homers. Overall, he currently has 29 in 421 at-bats, along with a line of .278/.352/.563. His power has come at a cost, as he has now struck out 101 times (Up seven percent from 2007) and walked just 46 times (Down about three percent).

The Detroit Tigers have one of the worst systems in baseball and Strieby’s season has put him near the top of the organization’s prospect list despite the inconsistencies throughout his career. The right-handed slugging first baseman is not unlike fellow Tigers’ prospect and left-handed hitter Jeff Larish, who had a line of .267/.390/.515 with 28 homers in 454 at-bats one level higher at Double-A in 2007.

If Strieby’s power surge is for real, and he can continue to hit .260-.280, he could potentially pair with Larish in the Majors in late 2009.

David Price has been very, very good this season.

It might have seemed like a foregone conclusion that the 2007 first overall pick would dominate in professional baseball but quite a few recent No. 1 overall picks have not been that great, including Matt Bush, Brian Bullington and even Luke Hochevar.

Price did not pitch after being selected in 2007 due to ongoing negotiations and he was slowed early on in 2008 by injury woes. The 6’6” southpaw began his season in the High-A Florida State League and toyed with the less-advanced hitters, allowing 28 hits in 34 innings with seven walks and 37 strikeouts.

Price was then promoted to Double-A where he has not missed a beat by allowing 42 hits in 57 innings with 16 walks and 55 strikeouts. With runners in scoring position, Double-A hitters are “hitting” just .118 suggesting he could have some immediate success in a big league bullpen if the Rays wanted to limit his innings this season. Overall, he is 11-0 in his pro career with a 1.87 ERA.

As good as he was in college, it is still a little surprising that Price has been this successful this quickly. He is poised to be a secret weapon as the Rays approach the organization’s first playoff series since its inception. Price could have a Francisco Rodriguez-type of impact this fall.

High school players Mike Moustakas and Josh Vitters, a pair of future Major League third basemen, were selected second and third overall in the 2007 amateur draft by the Kansas City Royals and Chicago Cubs, respectively. Both players struggled out of the gate when they began their pro careers but have turned things around as of late. Their current statistics look like this:

Moustakas  .265/.329/.470  400  20  34-69 (Full season ball)
Vitters    .325/.359/.515  169   9   9-34 (Short season ball)

Moustakas spent 11 games in Rookie Ball in 2007 and hit .293/.383/.439 with four doubles. He then struggled at the beginning of 2008 when he was assigned to full-season ball. Moustakas batted .190/.253/.226 in April with just one extra base hit (a homer). His best month came in July when he batted .303/.376/.487 with five doubles and three homers in 76 at-bats. He also walked nine times and struck out in just 13 at-bats. His 20 homers come in the Midwest League, which is notorious for negatively affecting home run power. Moustakas leads the league in homers with one more than Clinton’s Jonathan Greene. The 19-year-old left-handed batter has been almost as good against southpaws as right-handers: .250/.317/.478 versus .269/.332/.468. Defensively he has split time between shortstop and third base and projects better at the hot corner.

Like Moustakas, Vitters began the 2008 season in the full-season Midwest League but he started slowly and his strength was sapped by injuries. When he finally got healthy, the Cubs demoted Vitters, 18, to Short Season Boise. Vitters is now hitting .335/.371/.523 with four homers in 155 at-bats. The step back is disappointing but he’s still very young and will get another shot at the Midwest League next season. The right-handed batter has had a lot of fun against left-handed pitching this year with a line of .417/.432/.639, compared to .311/.354/.487 against right-handers. Vitters appears to put a little too much pressure on himself with runners in scoring position as he is hitting just .222 in those situations.

It’s going to take some time but Vitters remains the Cubs’ third baseman of the future. The same can be said for Moustakas, who is more advanced than Vitters both offensively and defensively. However, he faces a roadblock by the name of Alex Gordon. Watching the two careers unfold is going to be a lot of fun. Who do you think will be the better player long term?

As a ‘prospect watcher’ there is nothing more frustrating than standing by while a young player gets left to rot in the Minor Leagues when it’s clear that the player is ready for that next step.

Brandon Wood is a power-hitting infielder with the Los Angeles Angels and he has been considered one of the organization’s top prospects since he was drafted in the first round of the 2003 draft after being selected out of an Arizona high school. Originally a shortstop, Wood has also seen time at the hot corner.

It’s hard to believe Wood is only 23. It seems like he has been knocking on the big league door forever. After one half-season of Rookie Ball, Wood played in full-season ball for the first time at the age of 19 and held his own with a line of .251/.322/.404 in 478 at-bats.

Promoted to High-A ball the next season, Wood erupted for 51 doubles and 43 homers in 536 at-bats with a line of .321/.383/.672. The hype that followed was not fair; Wood was playing in Rancho Cucamonga, which is an excellent park for hitters. Yes, he is a good hitter, but he is not that good. Wood then hit 20-plus homers the next two seasons and was considered a disappointment even though he was almost ready for a cup of coffee in the Majors at the age of 21.

Now in his second full season of Triple-A, Wood is currently hitting .291/.355/.606 with 27 homers in 327 at-bats. That said, there are negatives to his game. Wood strikes out a lot (although the K% is on the decline from 32.9 to 27.5 to 26) and his defence is just OK. He has struggled in big league call-ups in both 2007 and 2008 for a combined line of .134/.160/.216 in 97 at-bats, but he also needs consistent playing time.

What is perhaps most perplexing is that the names of the players keeping Wood in the minors include Maicer Izturis, Chone Figgins, Erick Aybar and Robb Quinlan. All those players are Major Leaguers – and deservedly so – but none of them offer the kind of power and offensive upside that Wood does. Given that the Angels are ninth out of 14 American League teams in terms of homers and 10th in slugging percentage, they could use the added muscle.

It’s not often that professional baseball players slip under the radar, but it does happen. Just ask Mike Piazza, who was drafted in the 62nd round of the amateur draft. Or ask current Auburn Doubleday (New York Penn League) Adam Amar.

Amar was signed as a non-drafted free agent out of the Golden Baseball League where he spent one season with the Reno Silver Sox in Nevada. He caught the Toronto Blue Jays’ attention by hitting .354/.423/.625 in 96 at-bats. He was a four-year player at the University of Memphis and led the Conference USA with a .395 average in his junior season (1996) but was not drafted at all during his college career due to a perceived lack of power (He hit nine homers in 240 at-bats during his senior year) and below-average defensive skills at first base.

After signing his first contract with a Major League Baseball organization, Amar hit more than .400 in minor league spring training for the Jays in 2008 but was edged out for a spotting start in full-season Lansing (Midwest League) by 19-year-old Michael McDade, who struggled and is now Amar’s teammate in Auburn after a demotion. Adding to the depth at first base, the Jays selected David Cooper in the first round of the 2008 draft and he switched places with McDade and is now manning first base in Lansing (And is hitting .354/.416/.545 in 178 at-bats over two levels).

Amar, though, is making a case for full-season ball as well with a line of .353/.411/.607 with eight homers in 150 at-bats. The 22-year-old slugger has also struck out only 10 times to go along with 12 walks. He is first in the New York Penn League in average and doubles, second in slugging percentage and homers, third in on-base percentage and hits, and fourth in RBI. Only Oneonta’s Mike Gosse, a second baseman, has struck out fewer times with more than 100 at-bats – and he’s a contract hitter with zero homers.

Amar – who stands 6-4 and is 240 lbs – is also a well-rounded, right-handed hitter who is hitting .378 against southpaws and .345 against right-handers. He is hitting .356 with the bases empty and .333 with runners in scoring position. While many short-season hitters are beginning to fade, Amar has hit three homers and driven in 12 runs in his last six games.

He has a long way to go before he is ever mentioned in the same paragraph as Piazza again but Amar’s career is off to a nice start and it’s not hard to root for him.

Logan Morrison is one hot fish prospect.

Signed via the now defunct draft-and-follow process, Morrison was a B-level prospect entering the 2008 season, looking to build on a promising 2007 season. In 2005, he was selected in the 22nd round out of the same community college program that produced St. Louis’ Albert Pujols.

The 20-year-old, left-handed hitting first baseman slugged 24 homers and hit .267/.343/.483 in his first full pro season in 2007 in A-ball. The hard-working player struggled with southpaws on the mound and hit below .200.

Although the homers are down in 2008 at High-A ball (13 in 391 at-bats), Morrison is hitting .359 against lefties and .355/.414/.547 overall. He has 34 doubles, a line drive rate of 22 percent and has struck out just 58 times. Morrison is also developing a reputation as a run producer with a .348 average with runners in scoring position, along with 51 RBI in 89 at-bats.

While a lot of young players wear down as the season progresses, Morrison has grown stronger and hit .396/.442/.614 in 101 July at-bats. He also walked nine times and struck out just eight times. If he keeps this up, Morrison could be near the top of the Marlins’ prospect list by the end of the season.

As well all know, yesterday was the July 31 trade deadline for Major League Baseball. Even though it was fairly quiet, a number of interesting prospects traded hands, so let’s take a look at some of them.

Gaby Hernandez, RHP
Age:22 | Level: Double-A/Triple-A
From Florida to Seattle for Arthur Rhodes

Hernandez was demoted to Double-A after posting a 7.24 ERA in 13 Triple-A starts. Only 22, the right-hander still has lots of upside and was originally drafted in the third round of the 2004 draft by the New York Mets. He was sent to Florida in the Paul LoDuca. He was sent to Florida in the Paul LoDuca trade prior to the 2007 season. Hernandez has an excellent curve ball, a low-90s fastball and a change-up. He represents a nice return for a 38-year-old LOOGY.

Andy LaRoche, 3B
Age: 24 | Level: Triple-A/Majors
Traded from Los Angeles to Pittsburgh in the three-team Manny Ramirez deal

LaRoche should finally get the opportunity to play everyday, which he deserves. He possesses the potential to hit 25-30 homers, although it remains to be seen how well he will hit for average. Pittsburgh has done a nice job of turning Jason Bay’s and Xavier Nady’s above-average seasons into quality prospects. Brother Adamand Andy will have a chance to play in the same infield.

Bryan Morris, RHP
Age: 21 | Level: A-ball
Traded from Los Angeles to Pittsburgh in the three-team Manny Ramirez deal

Morris was a first-round selection in the 2006 draft by the Dodgers but missed the 2007 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He has been strong this season though by allowing 73 hits and 31 walks in 81.2 innings. Morris has also struck out 72 batters and could be a nice No. 2 starter with a low-90s fastball, curve, slider and change.

Craig Hansen, RHP
Age: 24 | Level: Triple-A/Majors
Traded from Boston to Pittsburgh in the three-team Manny Ramirez deal

The former first round pick out of St. John’s University really needed out of Boston. Although he made it to the Majors shortly after being drafted, he has never been able to stick at the big league level due to below-average command and control. In 2008, he had a 5.58 ERA for Boston in 30.2 innings after allowing 29 hits and 23 walks with 25 strikeouts. Hansen has a mid-90s fastball but is still trying to improve his slider which has slipped a grade or two since college.

Brandon Moss, OF
Age: 24 | Level: Triple-A/Majors
Traded from Boston to Pittsburgh in the three-team Manny Ramirez deal

Moss could get the opportunity to play everyday in Pittsburgh but he is probably a fourth outfielder long-term. The left-handed batter hit .282/.346/.528 in 163 Triple-A at-bats this season and .295/.337/.462 in 78 Major League at-bats. Moss strikes out too much and has just modest power for the corner outfield. He was originally selected in the eighth round out of high school in the 2002 draft.

Pitcher Jeff Samardzija likes to keep us guessing.

The Chicago Cubs right-hander was selected in the fifth round of the 2006 amateur draft and was actually the club’s second pick of the day due to a lack of second, third and fourth round selections (thanks to a free agent frenzy the previous winter).

Samardzija was given a significant contract to forgo a pro football career after spending his college days playing both sports at Notre Dame. At one point he was considered the top-rated wide receiver in the 2007 NFL draft.

Samardzija began his pro baseball career in 2006 in Rookie Ball and held his own, which earned him a late-season promotion to the Midwest League where he made two starts. Samardzija began 2007 in High-A ball but put up disappointing numbers with 142 hits allowed in 107.1 innings of work. He also walked 35 and struck out just 45 batters despite working in the mid- to high-90s.

The Cubs organization decided to promote Samardzija at the end of that season to Double-A where he made six starts despite the disappointing numbers in High-A ball. A funny thing happened. His numbers improved when everyone expected him to struggle. Albeit in fewer appearances, Samardzija’s H/9 ratio dropped from 11.91 to 8.65 and his K/9 increased from 3.77 to 5.24 (which was still low).

Samardzija repeated Double-A at the beginning of 2008 and again posted disappointing numbers with 71 hits allowed in 76 innings, along with 42 walks and just 44 strikeouts. The organization was aggressive with Samardzija and promoted him to Triple-A and he responded. He allowed 32 hits in 37.1 innings and walked 16 to go along with 40 strikeouts (the first time he came anywhere close to striking out a batter per nine innings).

Samardzija, 23, with a football background and mentality seems to thrive under pressure and in situations where he needs to rise to the occasion. At Triple-A with the bases empty, batters hit .275 against the pitcher. With runners in scoring position, hitters managed just a .207 average. In three recent Major League appearances, Samardzija allowed three hits and one walk in five relief innings on the biggest baseball stage in the world. He also struck out six batters.

So, yes, Samardzija’s pro numbers have been very disappointing prior to 2008, but he may have just needed a push – or shove – to rise to the occasion. I know Cubs fans, hungry for a World Series title, certainly hope this riddle has been solved.

Let’s just hope he doesn’t get too comfortable too soon.

The Cleveland Indians organization has a way of making some excellent trades. The club recently traded Casey Blake, basically a league-average third baseman, to the Los Angeles Dodgers for two intriguing prospects, one of whom could immediately step into the big league bullpen.

Blake, 34, was originally selected by the Toronto Blue Jays in the seventh round of 1996 draft out of Wichita State University. He also spent time with Baltimore and Minnesota before moving on to Cleveland as a free agent. Blake was in his sixth season with the Indians and was hitting .288/.365/.466 with 11 homers in 320 at-bats. It is an interesting trade because Los Angeles already had two interesting third base prospects playing at the Major League level (Andy LaRoche and Blake Dewitt).

Reliever Jonathan Meloan spent the bulk of 2008 in the starting rotation for Triple-A Las Vegas, which is a difficult environment to hit in. He was lights-out in the bullpen the previous three seasons in the minors. He was originally selected in the fifth round of the 2005 draft out of the University of Arizona. Meloan could be one of the more effective relievers in the Tribe’s bullpen right now with his low- to mid-90s fastball and slider.

Catcher Carlos Santana is possibly the steal of the trade deadline to this point. The converted outfielder is still learning the catch (He has caught just 22 of 97 base runners, with 16 errors and 10 passed balls) but you cannot argue with the potential in his bat. Only 22, Santana is currently hitting .323/.431/.563 with 14 homers and seven stolen bases in 350 at-bats. He has also walked 69 times with 59 strikeouts. Any time you get a young player with more walks than strikeouts you have to be impressed. The switch hitter is currently batting .341 against southpaws and .317 against right-handers. Santana is also hitting .411 with runners in scoring position.

There have been some talented prospects trade uniforms already during the 2008 trade deadline countdown but the Indians may have received the best value to date.