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Believe It or Not…

You know, the Pittsburgh Pirates can actually make a good trade or two.

Seriously. No, really. Stop laughing.

At the end of 2006 the organization traded a reliever to the Atlanta Braves by the name of Mike Gonzalez. Now Gonzalez had had some success (24 saves in 2006) and he still has good stuff. But he was still a reliever with limited experience acting as a closer. Regardless, the Atlanta Braves gave up a starting first baseman – Adam LaRoche – and two prospects including a low-level prospect by the name of Jamie Romak for Gonzalez.

Gonzalez went on to pitch in 18 games for Atlanta in 2007 before blowing out his arm and he is still rehabbing in 2008. LaRoche has had an up-and-down tenure in Pittsburgh but he did hit 42 doubles and 21 homers while driving in 88 runs in 2007.

Romak is a bit of a forget man, but he is starting to be taken seriously. The London, Ontario native (my hometown) was taken in the fourth round of the 2003 draft out of high school due to his raw power.

The right-handed hitter was slowed by injuries in his debut season and he spent parts of three years in short-season ball. His 2006 and 2007 seasons in A-ball could be described as good, but not great as he showed glimpses of his power but still struck out a lot as consistency eluded him.

Repeating High-A ball in 2008, Romak has found some consistency. His line currently stands at .286/.365/.565 as a 22-year-old in Lynchburg. Romak has 25 doubles and 18 homers in 283 at-bats. Now the downside: He is still striking out more than 30 percent of the time. In fairness, Russell Branyan has had an OK career with a career K% of 40 percent… but he also showed a little more power in the minors than Romak, including 40 homers in 482 low-A ball at-bats in 1996. Let’s compare the two players’ minor league careers to this point:

Branyan .262/.361/.560 in 2,715 at-bats
Romak   .252/.362/.480 in 1,314 at-bats

With those minor league numbers, Branyan has gone on to post a line of .230/.327/.485 at the Major League level. Romak is still young – and a ways from reaching his potential – but I would have to guess that the Canadian youngster would be pretty happy to achieve an 11-year Major League career with about 2,000 at-bats and 132 career homers. The Pirates would probably happily take it too.

And fans in Cleveland sure enjoyed watching Branyan launch those towering homers when he burst onto the scene.


The Ol’ Switcheroo

Rick Ankiel is without a doubt the best modern story in terms of a pitcher converting to a hitter – and actually making an impact at the Major League level. Star college player Brooks Kieschnick was a recent example of a player who made the switch in the other director – from hitter to pitcher – but he actually had a solid two seasons in the Majors as both a pinch hitter and mop-up reliever.

There are currently two other interesting conversion stories in the minor leagues, involving former college two-way star Brian Bogusevic of Houston and former top prospect Adam Loewen of Baltimore.

Bogusevic was originally drafted 24th overall by Houston in the 2005 draft out of Tulane University where he spent time on both the mound and in the field. After showing intriguing power in his first two college seasons, Bogusevic went on to hit just .328/.428/.397 in his final college season, which lead more teams to consider him as a pitcher. That same year, the left-hander posted a 13-3 college record with a 3.25 ERA and rates of 8.98 H/9, 2.90 BB/9, and 8.91 K/9.

Bogusevic ended the pitching experiment about mid-way through the 2008 season after posting a 5.50 ERA with 94 hits allowed in 88.1 Double-A innings. Over his career, the southpaw posted a 5.06 ERA and allowed rates of 10.17 H/9, 3.36 BB/9 and 6.15 K/9.

Bogusevic, 24, has yet to accumulate many at-bats this season. He hit .217/.357/.435 in 23 High-A ball at-bats and is currently at .176/.175/.353 in 17 Double-A at-bats. The left-handed batter has a lot of raw power that he is learning to tap into so he will be an interesting player to watch in the final third of the Minor League season.

Loewen was also a first round selection and he was drafted fourth overall in the 2002 draft out of a Canadian high school. Unlike Bogusevic, Loewen actually made it to the Major Leagues as a pitcher but it was injuries – not ineffectiveness – that caused him to make the ultimate decision to switch from pitching to hitting. At the time he was drafted, Loewen was considered to be a third-to-fifth-round talent as a hitter, but his powerful, left-handed arm was coveted by the Orioles.

It took the British Columbia native just three-and-a-half seasons (he was delayed by injuries) to make it to The Show. His final big league pitching line shows an 8-8 record with a 5.38 ERA, with 8.95 H/9, 5.82 BB/9, and 7.35 K/9 in 35 games (and he is 0-for-2 as a big league hitter). Loewen has yet to officially take an at-bat since his conversion but he is also someone to keep an eye on, especially since he is 6-6, 220 lbs, a left-handed hitter and still only 24 years old.

It would be a stretch to expect either player to have a significant Major League career as a hitter – or to even succeed to the level that Ankiel has so far… But it will certainly be entertaining to following along as Bogusevic and Loewen strive to beat the odds.


The Future is Bright on the Mound in Baltimore

The Baltimore Orioles organization currently has two very talented hurlers on its Double-A staff, both of whom should have bright futures in the Majors Leagues if they can stay healthy. Interestingly, though, the pitchers come from very different baseball backgrounds.

Jake Arrieta was selected in the fifth round of the 2007 draft but he was considered a better talent before falling in the draft due to signability ($$$) concerns. During his college career he spent time at a junior college and at Texas Christian University. He was also drafted by the Reds in 2004 (31st round) and the Brewers in 2005 (26th round). The Orioles managed to get him signed with an above-slot deal and the ‘gamble’ has paid off for the club.

Because Arrieta signed late in 2007, he did not make his debut until the Arizona Fall League, where he dominated. Due to his early success, Arrieta was assigned to High-A ball to begin the 2008 season at the age of 22. In his first 12 starts, the right-hander over-powered his competition and had an ERA below 2.50 and allowed just 37 hits in 69.2 innings of work. In his last nine starts, though, Arrieta has allowed 40 hits in 35.1 innings, with an ERA around 4.50. Overall, Arrieta is holding right-handers to a .169 average, while lefties are hitting .257.

Even with his recent struggles, Arrieta has allowed just 77 hits in 106 innings. He has also struck out 112 batters while walking 48. He has struggled a bit with his control, but Arrieta’s numbers suggest he is well on his way to becoming a solid No. 3 starter at the Major League level.

Brandon Erbe, on the other hand, made his pro debut at the age of 17. He was selected in the third round of the 2005 draft out of a Maryland high school and was immediately sent to Rookie Ball where he held his own and posted an ERA of 3.09 with just eight hits and 10 walks allowed in 23.1 innings of work. He began the next year in full-season ball and pitched well with 88 hits allowed in 114.2 innings of work. Erbe also struck out 133 batters with 47 walks.

The wheels fell off for the right-hander in 2007 when he was promoted to High A-ball as he struggled with his command. He went from allowed 3.69 BB/9 in 2006 to allowing 4.68 BB/9 in 2007. He also allowed 127 hits in 119.1 innings. It was the first time that Erbe experienced a prolonged slump in the minor leagues and forced him to deal with adversity, which will probably help him long-term.

Erbe has pitched much better in 2008 while repeating High-A ball at the age of 20. He is currently leading the league in innings pitched and has allowed 97 hits in 109.2 innings. Erbe has walked 31 batters and struck out 108. One warning sign is the 18 homers than the youngster has allowed this season. He does have the potential to be a No. 2 or 3 starter if he can sharpen his command and control. Erbe could also be a dominating reliever with a mid- to high-90s fastball and wipe-out slider.

Although both pitchers come from different backgrounds, they could easy form a powerful punch in the middle of the Orioles’ starting staff within two seasons.


A Talented Pitcher on the Cahill

Given the number of recent trades, it is easy to forget about some of the talented arms originally drafted by the Oakland Athletics. Right-hander Trevor Cahill is one of the top arms in the system. He was originally selected out of a California high school in the second round (66th overall) of the 2006 draft.

Cahill had a nice start to his pro career in 2006, although he made just four appearances. He allowed two hits in nine innings and struck out 11 batters. The next season, in the Midwest League, Cahill allowed 85 hits (7.26 H/9) and 40 walks (3.42 BB/9) in 105.1 innings. He also struck out 117 batters (10.00 K/9).

Cahill began 2008 in High-A ball and continued to pitch well. He allowed 52 hits (5.36 H/9) and 31 walks (3.19 BB/9) in 87.1 innings. The 20-year-old also struck out 103 batters (10.61 K/9). He was then promoted to Double-A where he currently has allowed 16 hits and 11 walks in 27 innings pitched. Cahill has also struck out 23 batters. He has done an excellent job keeping the ball on the ground with a groundball-out-to-air-out ratio of 4.09, up from 1.73 in 2007.

With his lethal combination of movement, heavy low-90s fastball and swing-and-miss curveball, Cahill is a pitcher to watch in 2009… if not sooner.


Checking In On The Athletics’ 2005 Prep Picks

The Oakland Athletics organization has one of the most talent-laden minor league systems in the game. The majority of those prospects, though, have been collected from other organizations through various transactions including trades.

Even so, the Athletics organization has been successful, to a degree, at drafting promising arms. In 2005, despite its reputation for favoring advanced college products, the club focused its efforts on selecting some talented prep arms early in the draft. In the first seven rounds, the organization selected five high school pitchers in nine selections.

Kevin Bunch, a right-hander drafted out of a California high school, was the last of those players selected. He managed just two pro seasons and ended his career in 2006 by allowing 31 hits and nine walks in 16.1 Short Season innings.

Scott Deal was selected in the fifth round out of a Washington high school. The right-hander spent two OK seasons in Short Season ball and has been in the Midwest League for the past two seasons. Still only 21, Deal has served a variety of roles for Kane County this season and has made 10 starts in 21 appearances. He has a 3.73 ERA and has allowed 79 hits in 82 innings.

Vince Mazzaro was drafted in the third round out of a New Jersey high school. He signed late and did not make his pro debut until 2006 when he was assigned to the Midwest League. Mazzaro, a right-hander, had two unspectacular seasons in A-ball before being challenged with a promotion to Double-A to begin 2008. He has thrived at the level and currently has a 2.11 ERA and has allowed 103 hits in 119.1 innings. Mazzaro has struck out just 89 batters with 32 walks. He has become less hittable the last three seasons as he ascended through the minors: 11.01 H/9, 9.31 H/9, 8.00 H/9.

Right-handers Jared Lansford and Craig Italiano were both selected in the second round of the 2005 draft. Jared, 21, is the son of former A’s third baseman Carney Lansford. Jared has had an up-and-down career and followed up a solid 2006 season (2.86 ERA, 87 hits in 104 innings) by missing all of 2007 due to an injury. This season in High-A ball, he has been pitching out of the bullpen and has allowed 57 hits in 60.1 innings. He has walked 20 and struck out 73. Left-handers are hitting .330 against him, while right-handers are batting just .188.

Italiano is the most promising of the five early round prep pitchers. His success is a testament to his dedication and commitment, as he managed to throw less than 54 innings in his first three pro seasons due to injuries, which included shoulder surgery and a fractured skull after he was hit by a line drive. He began 2008 in the Midwest League and posted a 1.16 ERA with 43 hits allowed in 70 innings. Italiano also walked 35 and struck out 79. He then took his mid- to high-90s fastball to High-A ball where he has posted an ERA of 13.81 in 14.1 innings. Italiano has allowed 23 hits and 13 walks during that span of time.

The A’s organization has had varying degrees of success with its selections from the 2005 prep pool. Given that the club is still seeing progress from four of its five top selections, the club should be pleased with the results.


More Cards From the Deck

We’ve been looking at the St. Louis Cardinals’ minor league system this week and have highlighted some interesting prospects, including top pitching prospects like Jess Todd and Adam Ottavino. As we all know, pitching is a highly-sought-after commodity in Major League Baseball and the St. Louis organization has its fair share of arms that have yet to make an appearance in the big leagues, including Clayton Mortensen and P.J. Walters.

Mortensen was the organization’s supplemental first round selection out of Gonzaga University in 2007. The sinker/slider pitcher has a low 90s fastball, but it’s his ability to keep the ball on the ground that really improves his prospect status. Prior to 2008, Mortensen had a ground-out-to-air-out ration higher than 3.00. So far this season he has a ratio of 2.08 over two minor league stops. He began the season in Double-A and allowed 59 hits in 59 innings with 22 walks and 48 strikeouts. Mortensen was promoted to Triple-A and has allowed 42 hits in 41 innings with 21 walks and 25 strikeouts. Despite his solid stuff, Mortensen’s numbers have just been OK this season, which might suggest a move to the bullpen is in his future, unless he can significantly improve his third pitch – a change-up (which might also help against left-handed batters who are collectively hitting .342 against him).

Walters also began his season in Double-A before a promotion to Triple-A. At Springfield, Walters allowed 35 hits in 36 innings with eight walks and 34 strikeouts. He also allowed five home runs. After a promotion to Memphis, Walters has allowed 81 hits in 72 innings with 31 walks and 70 strikeouts. Walters was originally an 11th round selection out of the University of South Alabama in 2006. The right-hander’s fastball sits around the mid- to high-80s but he features a trick pitch, which is a cross between a change-up and a screwball. His breaking ball is a below average pitch, which significantly clouds his future outlook as a starting pitcher. You cannot count Walters out, though, as he is succeeding in Triple-A in just his second full minor league season.


Yada, Yada, Yadier…

The St. Louis Cardinals organization is already blessed with a talented backstop, but there is another talented catcher on his way to the big league club in the near future.

Yadier Molina, already in his fifth Major League season, is having a career year and just turned 26. He is currently hitting .312/.365/.399 with four homers in 276 at-bats. He has also walked 24 times with 14 strikeouts. Molina has improved for two years in a row, which helps to suggest that this is not a fluke season, as he heads into his playing prime. Defensively, there aren’t many, if any, catchers who offer his all-around skills behind the dish.

Molina’s current back-up is light-hitting veteran catcher Jason LaRue, who is having a ‘rejuvenated’ season at the age of 34 after hitting below .200 each of the last two years. LaRue, a free agent at the end of the season, is hitting .242/.339/.400 in just 95 at-bats. At Triple-A, minor league veteran Mark Johnson is a solid defensive catcher who could probably offer just about as much with the bat as LaRue and possibly more defensively.

Also at Triple-A is the Cardinals’ top catching prospect Bryan Anderson. The 21-year-old is still a little rough behind the plate (although he calls a great game) but you cannot argue with his offensive potential. He began the season at Double-A and hit .388/.412/.525 with two homers in 80 at-bats. Anderson was then promoted to Triple-A where he has hit .320/.396/.433 with one homer in 150 at-bats. He also has 18 walks and 23 strikeouts. He was originally selected in the fourth round out of high school in the 2005 amateur draft. Anderson’s lack of power is the only real smudge on his prospect status and he should be ready to apprentice with Molina as soon as the Cardinals decide to cut ties with LaRue.


Cardinals in the Outfield

Top offensive prospect Colby Rasmus is having an off-season in Triple-A for the St. Louis Cardinals organization. The 21-year-old was selected in the first round (28th overall) of the 2005 draft out of a Georgia high school. He has moved swiftly through the system and hit .275/.381/.551 with 29 homers and 18 stolen bases in 472 Double-A at-bats last season. So far this season, and now at Triple-A Memphis, he is batting .249/.351/.401 with 11 homers and 13 stolen bases in 309 at-bats. Interestingly, Rasmus – a left-handed batter – is hitting just .237 against right-handed pitchers and .277 against southpaws. On the positive side, Rasmus hit .333 in June after hitting .210 in April and .218 in May.

Although Rasmus is struggling, fellow outfield prospect Shane Robinson is improving his standing in the organization. The 23-year-old was originally selected out of Florida State University in the fifth round of the 2006 draft. He was slowed by an injury in 2007 at hit just .253/.321/.355 in 166 High-A at-bats. This year, though, Robinson was challenged with a promotion to Double-A and responded with a line of .352/.396/.496 with four homers and 13 RBI in 244 at-bats. He was promoted to Triple-A in June and has hit .265/.284/.349 with one homer and one stolen base. Robinson, who is only 5-9, likely projects as a fourth outfielder in the Major Leagues as a player who has limited power and patience at the plate. Defensively, he has a questionable arm for center field.

Jon Jay is another outfielder who has improved his prospect standing this season. Like Robinson, Jay was selected in the 2006 draft as a second round pick out of the University of Miami. He was also slowed by injuries in 2007 and hit just .265/.328/.387 in 230 at-bats at three levels. This season, at Double-A Springfield, Jay is batting .305/.375/.471 with 11 homers and nine stolen bases in 325 at-bats. The left-handed hitter is maintaining a solid average against southpaws (.277) and right-handers (.312). Jay has a slightly brighter future as a better defensive outfielder than Robinson.

With solid outfield depth at the Major League level already, the Cardinals could use any of the above players to help fill some of the other holes on the big league club before the trade deadline at the end of this month.


Birds of a Feather Flock… in Opposite Directions

The St. Louis Cardinals’ top two pitching – not currently at the Major League level – are headed in different directions. Adam Ottavino and Jess Todd were both drafted within the top two rounds of the 2006 and 2007 drafts. And both were solid college pitchers, although Ottavino has been a starter throughout his college and pro career, while Todd was converted to a full-time starter in pro ball.

Ottavino, 22, was selected 30th overall in the 2006 draft out of Northeastern University and had a solid pro debut in 2006. He followed that up with another good season, although he was not quite as good as some of his superficial numbers would suggest. In High-A ball, Ottavino posted a 3.08 ERA with a record of 12-8. Those numbers masked some other numbers that were not as impressive, including a 3.96 BB/9 rate and an 8.04 K/9, which is OK but not spectacular for his age, level and experience. So far in 2008, Ottavino has had a rough season at Double-A. He has a 6.08 ERA in 66.2 innings and has allowed 72 hits. Ottavino has also posted 37 walks and 59 strikeouts. He has allowed more than a hit an inning for the first time in his career and his walk rate has risen to almost five per game, at 4.90 BB/9. His strikeout totals are about the same at 8.16 K/9. After allowing fewer than one homer per nine innings in his career, Ottavino currently has a rate of 1.48 HR/9 in Springfield.

On the other hand, Jess Todd, 22, has thrived at Double-A. The 2007 second round pick out of the University of Arkansas currently has a 2.31 ERA in 74 innings pitched with 51 hits allowed. He has walked just 17 batters with 57 strikeouts. Opponents are hitting .199 against him and he has a rate of 5.84 H/9. One downside is that after averaging more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings over the last two minor league stops, Todd now has a rate of 6.93 K/9. He has offset that by walking just 2.07 batters per nine innings. If you take out his worst outing of the year, which occurred in his last start when he allowed six runs in 4.2 innings, Todd would have a career ERA of 2.09 with 111 hits allowed in 155 innings.

Prospects Chris Perez and Jaime Garcia have already made an impact at the Major League level this season for the Cardinals and Todd does not seem that far away. He could even find himself in the majors before the end of the season. Ottavino, on the other hand, has a few more adjustments to make before making the next step.


Cubs “Top” Prospects Remain After Trade

The Chicago Cubs managed to acquire one of the top pitchers in the game (when healthy) in Rich Harden and also received sleeper Chad Gaudin in this week’s trade with the Oakland Athletics. Impressively, the Cubs organization did not part with any of its “top” prospects, including third baseman Josh Vitters and pitcher Jose Ceda.

Vitters began the season in April in Low A-ball but struggled and ended up on the disabled list. He resurfaced in June in the short-season Northwest League and has played exceptionally well, although most 2007 first round prep players are currently in full-season ball. He is currently hitting .329/.385/.512 in 82 at-bats with with two homers and 14 RBI. Vitters was drafted third overall in the 2007 draft out of high school.

Ceda was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2004. The 21-year-old is currently pitching in Double-A after beginning the year in High-A ball. He was recently moved to the bullpen and has allowed nine hits and three walks (2.25 BB/9) in 12 innings. Ceda has struck out 18 (13.50 K/9). His fastball can tease triple digits and his slider is a strikeout pitch.

The club also did not part with a couple of fringe Top 10 organizational prospects in Jeff Samardzija and Tyler Colvin. Both players were highly drafted and handed handsome sums of money to sign with the Cubs, but neither player has put up eye-catching numbers in the minor league system. The organization still touts the players amongst its best, but the truth is that few other organizations feel the same way.

Samardzija was given a five-year, $10 million contract in 2006 as a fifth round pick to lure him away from playing pro football. The results on the mound have been mixed. His numbers have never matched his mid-90s fastball and, although he was recently promoted to Triple-A, his Double-A numbers were troubling. In 76 innings at the lower level, Samardzija allowed just 71 hits but he walked 42 (4.97 BB/9) and struck out just 44 (5.21 K/9). His rates have been slightly better in Triple-A but with only four starts it is a small sample size. Samardzija would probably be best suited to a bullpen role.

Colvin was the shock of the 2006 draft’s first round when the Cubs selected him 13th overall. The athletic outfielder has been hurt in his pro career by a base-on-balls phobia. He is currently playing in Double-A and hitting .241/.306/.384 in 352 at-bats. Colvin has seven homers and 46 RBI. He has walked more this season in the past with 32 (8.4 percent), to go along with 71 strikeouts (20.5 percent). Last season he managed to walk only about three percent of the time. Right now he projects as a fourth outfielder at best.

So while the Cubs managed to hold on to many of the organization’s top prospects, the future “stars” of the organization still have a lot of question that need answering before they can become the next Geovany Soto.