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A’s Choose Quantity Over Quality

The recent trade between the Oakland Athletics and the Chicago Cubs was interesting to say the least. Firstly, it came out of nowhere. Secondly, the haul for Major League pitchers Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin was far less than I would have expected the Athletics to receive, given the value of pitching in today’s game.

I won’t dwell on new A’s starter Sean Gallagher too much, since David wrote a nice piece on him yesterday. But I will say that he is definitely the key piece of the trade and should fit into the rotation immediately.

Eric Patterson is the brother of Cincinnati Reds outfield Corey Patterson. Eric is not a very good defensive player and he has already moved from second base to the outfield. His poor arm strength pretty much limits him to left field, first base or some second base, which hurts his value as a utility player. In nine left field games this season for Chicago, Eric made three errors. He was originally drafted in the eighth round of the 2004 draft after playing college ball at Georgia Tech.

Matt Murton has proven that he is a major league hitter but he has been buried at Triple-A in the Cubs organization despite a .294/.362/.448 line in 308 games over four seasons. He does not have a ton of power so he is best suited to a fourth outfielder or platoon role. Murton is a corner outfielder with average abilities in the field. He was the first round pick of the Boston Red Sox in 2003 and, like Eric Patterson, played at Georgia Tech.

Catcher Josh Donaldson has spent the season struggling at A-ball in the Midwest League. He is currently hitting .223/.282/.358 in 229 at-bats. It’s unfortunate because Donaldson, who was moved behind the plate at Auburn University, was supposed to have a much better bat than glove. He did hit .335/.460/.590 in 173 at-bats during his debut in Short Season ball in 2007. Defensively, he has made seven errors this season in 51 games behind the dish and has six passed balls. He has thrown out 27 of 71 (38 percent) runners attempting to steal a base. He was drafted 48th overall in the supplemental first round of the 2007 draft.

In all, the Athletics received a promising starting pitcher, two bench players and a catcher who may stick behind the plate and may hit enough to play in the majors… for two proven Major League pitchers who can both work out of the starting rotation. Patterson and Murton probably take the roster spots from Wes Bankston and Rajai Davis, offering modest upgrades. Donaldson addresses an organizational weakness at the catching position. Most of the pressure remains on Gallagher… especially if Harden stays healthy for any significant amount of time.

Also, keep an eye on Gaudin if he gets the opportunity to start in the National League. He could thrive there.


Reversing Thoughts on Revere

On Day 1 of the 2007 MLB Amateur Draft, people (myself included) kept harping on the Minnesota Twins’ overdraft of a Kentucky high school by the name of Ben Revere. Well, the diminutive outfielder (5-9, 165) is obviously out to make a lot of people look silly.

His onslaught began in his pro debut when he hit .325/.388/.461 in 191 Rookie Ball at-bats. Revere slugged 10 triples and kept his strikeout rate down at a respectable 10.5 percent, while walking 6.4 percent. He also stole 21 of 30 bases.

Revere had a late start to 2008, but he has been on fire since joining Beloit at the end of April. He is currently hitting .403/.457/.548 with 13 doubles and eight triples in 221 at-bats. Revere has walked just 18 times (less than eight percent), but he has kept his strikeouts down to about 10 percent. He has stolen 26 bases in 37 attempts.

Here is the bad news. Revere is probably not going to keep channeling Kirby Puckett and the slugging percentage is going to take a hit as he moves up the ladder – power is just not his game. He is also not going to hit .400 this season. His BABIP is currently astronomical at .440 and he has a line drive rate of 16 percent.

Regardless, Revere is gaining well-deserved attention and could be in Minnesota quicker than anyone projected – perhaps as soon as late 2010 – if his lack of patience does not hurt him at Double-A and above.


Brewers-Indians Swap: The Lesser Names

Last week I wrote about the log jam in Milwaukee regarding prospects Mat Gamel and Matt LaPorta. Well, Milwaukee solved part of that issue now that the organization has sent LaPorta to the Indians as part of the trade for C.C. Sabathia. Since we have already taken a look at the big-named prospect, let’s have a look-see at the other prospects in the deal.

Zach Jackson, LHP, Triple-A
Jackson was originally drafted 32nd overall by the Toronto Blue Jays in 2004 out of Texas A&M. At the time, he was considered an advanced college arm with a limited ceiling. Unfortunately, the latter part was true but the former was not, as Jackson has yet to solidify a big league role in five pro seasons. The 25-year-old southpaw has terrible Triple-A numbers this season, including a 7.85 ERA and 81 hits allowed in 57.1 innings split between the starting rotation and the bullpen. In his MLB career, Jackson has allowed 53 hits in 42 innings and has posted a strikeout rate of just 4.93 K/9.

Rob Bryson, RHP, A-ball
Bryson was a 31st round selection in the 2006 draft out of a Delaware high school. He has bounced back and forth between the starting rotation and the bullpen during his two seasons in the minors and has good numbers this year. He currently has allowed 43 hits in 55 innings and has struck out 77 batters. He is an extreme fly ball pitcher with a ground out to air out ratio of 0.87. He has a low-90s fastball, breaking ball and change-up.

Taylor Green, 3B, High-A (Rumored to be the Player to be Named Later)
Green, 21, was a find in the 25th round of the 2005 draft out of a community college. The left-handed hitting Canadian struggled in his debut as a 19-year-old second baseman in Rookie ball and hit .231/.328/.308 in 221 at-bats. He was moved up to A-ball in 2007 (and over to the hot corner) and thrived with a line of .327/.406/.516 with 14 homers and 86 RBI in 397 at-bats. So far this season, Green is performing well at High-A ball and currently has a line of .295/.380/.444 with 10 homers in 302 at-bats. He also has a BB-K rate of 1.00. His strikeout rate has dropped from 16.4 percent in 2007 to 13.8 in 2008.

At first glance it does not appear that Cleveland received a ton of value in this trade, with the majority of the talent locked up in one player: Matt LaPorta. But one must consider that the Brewers may have Sabathia’s services for just three months, if he elects to leave via free agency this winter. LaPorta is also a very talented player and has Travis Hafner-in-his-prime upside and can now be moved back to first base or spend time as a designated hitter.


‘B’ is for Brewers and Prospects

Brewers prospects such as Mat Gamel and Matt LaPorta get a great deal of attention, and deservedly so. However, the Brewers have a few ‘B-level prospects’ that are intriguing, including Michael Brantley and Cole Gillespie.

Brantley is interesting because he is a ‘small ball’ player who has actually embraced the role. The speedy outfielder is only 21 and succeeding at the Double-A level. He is currently hitting .324/.405/.412 in 306 at-bats. He has 39 walks and just 18 strikeouts. Brantley has stolen 25 bases in 31 attempts and has scored 62 runs in 74 games.

In his career, Brantley has a .314 batting average and .404 on-base percentage. He has walked 180 times and struck out just 129 times in 1,221 career at-bats. Defensively, he is a little raw and relies on his speed to make up for his mistakes. The left-handed batter was drafted in the seventh round of the 2005 draft out of a Florida high school.

Gillespie, 24, is a much different player, although he shares the outfield grass with Brantley in Huntsville. Gillespie is currently hitting .273/.376/.491 with 10 homers and 28 doubles in 293 at-bats. He has also shown some patience at the plate with a .395 career on-base percentage.

He is considered a gamer and has solid all-around skills although no one tool stands out, which could limit him to a fourth outfielder role in the majors, as he has enough defensive ability to play all three spots. Gillespie has just enough offensive potential to spend a few years playing every day for a mid-level team. He was originally drafted out of Oregon State University in the third round of the 2006 draft.


A Fat Dose of the Good Speed

Jeremy Jeffress has one powerful arm. Unfortunately, he also allegedly has one powerful love of… ’90s Cypress Hill music, shall we say, which has resulted in more than one suspension from baseball and the Milwaukee Brewers. The right-hander was originally drafted 16th overall in the 2005 draft out of a Virginia high school.

Back from his latest suspension, Jeffress has started nine High-A ball games with mixed results. He is still touching the upper 90s with improved command and control (6.68 BB/9 in 2006, 4.59 in 2007, 3.40 in 2008), but consistency remains a work-in-progress. Here is the breakdown of his nine starts, including three bad performances and six good ones:

The Bad:  11.2 IP | 21 H | 06 BB | 22 K | 20 ER | 16.07 ERA 
The Good: 36.0 IP | 18 H | 12 BB | 43 K | 03 ER | 00.75 ERA

By those numbers above, it is clear that when Jeffress is on, he is on. That is a ridiculous split on the ERA. It is interesting, though, that Jeffress’ strikeout rate is actually better when he is struggling: 16.85 K/9, compared to 10.75 K/9 when he is pitching well. The control is less impressive when he struggles: 4.60 BB/9, compared to 3.00 BB/9, but it does not seem that extreme. Perhaps Jeffress is tipping pitches during his bad starts, which allows hitters to sit on a certain pitch. Even when you know what’s coming, it can be hard to hit a high-90s fastball, especially in A-ball.

One thing is for sure… If Jeffress can stay healthy and, more importantly at this point, on the straight-and-narrow, then the Brewers could have something very special.


The Milwaukee Conundrum

Depth is always a good thing. But it can also be frustrating. Such is the case with the Milwaukee Brewers and top offensive prospects Matt LaPorta and Mat Gamel. LaPorta is a first baseman (a DH, really) playing left field. Gamel is a left fielder playing third base.

Movin’ on Up (2008 Double-A stats):

Matt LaPorta  .290/.403/.584 | 19 HR | 63 RBI | 42 BB-60 K
Mat Gamel     .383/.445/.639 | 15 HR | 72 RBI | 38 BB-60 K

Holdin’ Down the Fort (2008 MLB stats):

Prince Fielder .272/.360/.487 | 16 HR | 43 RBI | 39 BB-61 K
Ryan Braun     .282/.317/.544 | 20 HR | 58 RBI | 16 BB-70 K
Bill Hall      .212/.275/.386 | 10 HR | 28 RBI | 18 BB-67 K

LaPorta was selected in the first round (seventh overall) of the 2007 draft out of the University of Florida as a senior, which surprised many because he was blocked at the Major League level by young, talented first baseman Prince Fielder. The Brewers immediately announced the organization’s intention to relocate LaPorta to the outfield. The move was met with skepticism given the lumbering man’s lack of athleticism but he has not embarrassed himself in the field (nor is he an average fielder, though) and he has torn the cover off the ball. In his pro career, he is hitting .300/.398/.643.

Gamel was snagged in the fourth round of the 2005 draft out of Chipola Junior College, ironically in the same draft that saw the club take Ryan Braun (originally a road block at third base, now in left field) fifth overall out of the University of Miami. Gamel was a pretty good value, costing the Brewers $2,224,000 less than Braun. He, like LaPorta, has done nothing but hit in the majors and currently sports a career line of .311/.381/.504. Gamel does not possess as much power as LaPorta, who could be a 40-homer guy, but the former juco player is a threat to hit .300, while LaPorta should be more around the .270-.280 area in the Major Leagues.

If both these players were in different organizations, they may very well have already made it to the major leagues. Bill Hall (.917 fielding percentage) certainly is not keeping Gamel or LaPorta in the minors, so it is clear Milwaukee does not see Gamel as the answer at third base. But neither player is going to move Braun out of left field. However, Fielder’s contract grumblings, offensive “struggles” and physique may make him expendable sooner rather than later. But even that solves only half of the problem.

Happy Canada Day to my fellow Canadians.


Former Top Prospect is Brewin’ Again

Brad Nelson has seemingly been around forever. The former fourth round pick out of an Iowa high school in 2001 was considered a better prospect at one time than current Brewer Corey Hart, who was also drafted out of high school but a year earlier.

However, things changed and Hart has played parts of five seasons in the majors and secured a regular gig last year after hitting .295/.353/.539 with 24 homers in 505 at-bats. Nelson, on the other hand, has yet to have a Major League at-bat and he has spent parts of four seasons in Double-A and parts of four seasons in Triple-A.

Things may be looking up for Nelson, though. Still young at only 25, the left-handed batter, who can play first base and the corner outfield, is currently hitting .304/.417/.507 with 12 homers and 19 doubles in 280 at-bats. The most encouraging numbers are the 55 walks (16.7 percent walk rate) and 49 strikeouts (17.5 percent). Nelson walked a total of 31 times in 2007 (seven percent) during the span of 411 Triple-A at-bats. Nelson has shown good strike zone judgment in the past, as recently as 2006, when he walked 63 times (19.2 percent), albeit with 62 strikeouts (23.4 percent) in 265 Double-A at-bats.

Nelson is likely headed for a career off the bench as he does not hit lefties overly well. This season he is hitting .240/.374/.400 against southpaws and .327/.433/.546 against right-handers. Even so, if his 2008 numbers are for real, he could put together a nice career, perhaps in the mold of Mark Sweeney, most recently of the Dodgers. The biggest question that remains is how well he will hit while receiving sporadic playing time at the Major League level.


2004 a Dream Draft for Rays

A team would be pretty happy with a draft if it netted one future Major League All-Star or a couple Major League contributors. The 2004 Tampa Bay amateur draft has already produced four top prospects, one Major League starting pitcher and a few other spare parts that have the potential to see a little time on the Major League roster. What is even more impressive about the Rays’ draft is that the organization secured numerous top prospects without the aid of supplemental selections.

Despite average stuff, pitcher Andy Sonnanstine has had the best value of the 2004 drafted. Taken in the 14th round out of Kent State University, the right-hander is currently a member of the Rays’ starting rotation and has won 14 games over the past two seasons. This year he is 8-3 with a 4.85 ERA in 16 starts. He has allowed 117 hits in 94.2 innings, along with 18 walks and 63 strike outs.

I have already written about Jacob McGee (fifth round) and Wade Davis (third round) this week and they, along with first round pick Jeff Niemann, were the jewels of this draft. Niemann was slowed by injuries but he finally made his long-awaited Major League debut in 2008. Second round pick Reid Brignac, a shortstop, is also one of the Rays’ top prospects and currently playing at Triple-A where he is hitting .270/.320/.453.

Right-hander Matt Walker’s results have never matched his stuff, mainly due to poor control. The 10th round pick out of a Louisiana high school has walked 5.83 batters per nine innings in his career.

Sixth round selection Ryan Royster, 21, is only hitting .235/.285/.304 this season in High-A ball, but the outfielder broke out in 2007 with 30 homers and a .329 average in Low-A ball. Fernando Perez, another second tier outfield prospect, was drafted out of Columbia University in the seventh round. He is currently in Triple-A and is hitting .276/.361/.394. Both players could see time at the Major League level, although neither is likely to be a regular.


Jacob’s Climbing the Ladder

Like David Price and Wade Davis, Jacob McGee is yet another promising, young pitcher in the Rays system. However, the southpaw, like Davis, is finding Double-A to be a little bit more challenging than A-ball.

Born in California, McGee attended high school in Nevada and was drafted in the fifth round of the 2004 draft. He spent two seasons in Short Season Ball and averaged about 7.5 H/9 and 9.5 K/9 during that time. As a 20-year-old, McGee spent a full year in Low-A ball and allowed 6.92 H/9 and 4.37 BB/9. He also struck out 171 batters in 134 innings (11.49 K/9).

He then put up similar numbers the next year High-A ball, although his walk rate dropped significantly to 3.01 BB/9. He earned a late-season promotion to Double-A and held his own with rates of 7.33 H/9 and 11.57 K/9. He averaged more than five walks per nine innings, though.

McGee returned to Double-A this season and is doing OK, but his strikeouts are down: 8.22 compared to a career average of 10.43. His hit rate remains good at 7.26. It’s no surprise that minor league hitters struggle to make good contract against McGee, who has a fastball that can touch the high 90s and solid secondary pitches (a slider and change-up). He has done a nice job of holding right-handed batters to a .236 average this season and lefties are at .213.

At only 21 years of age, McGee remains a very promising prospect and has the potential to be a No. 2 starter at the major league level if he can improve the command of his secondary pitches.


Don’t Forget About Wade Davis… But…

When David Price was selected first overall in the 2007 draft he instantly became the Rays’ best pitching prospect. But that is not to say the organization did not already have some impressive pitchers.

Wade Davis was nabbed in the third round of the 2004 draft out of a Florida high school. The right-hander made 13 starts in his pro debut but was roughed up and had an ERA over 6.00 and allowed 11.08 H/9. The organization was cautious with him and they had him repeat the Short Season League in 2005. It was the next season, though, that the 20-year-old really got noticed.

In 27 Low-A ball games, he allowed 7.64 H/9 and amassed 10.17 K/9. He also walked almost four batters per nine innings, though. Davis then posted similar numbers in 2007 split between High-A ball and Double-A. In 2008, Davis was once again assigned to Double-A.

His numbers have regressed from his Double-A stint last season:
2007: 80.0 IP | 8.33 | 0.34 HR/9 | 3.38 BB/9 | 9.11 K/9
2008: 73.1 IP | 8.47 | 0.61 HR/9 | 3.44 BB/9 | 6.63 K/9

Have hitters caught up to Davis or is he hiding an injury? Or has he just hit a mid-season wall? He has allowed six runs in two of his last three starts. 2008 has not been an impressive season for Davis, but he still has a mid-90s fastball and an excellent curve ball. At 22 years of age, time is still on his side.