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Making Some Noise in the Desert

James D’Antona has been a favorite of mine ever since he was taken by Arizona in the second round of the 2003 draft out of Wake Forest University. D’Antona has always been talented but he was slow to develop in professional baseball and has yet to appear in the major leagues despite being 26 years old.

He was left off the D-Backs’ 40-man roster the last two seasons and I kept waiting for a team to take a chance on him, given his excellent power potential and his ability to play third base, first base and catcher. In college, D’Antona showed the ability to throw 94 mph off the mound but had poor footwork at the hot corner and some doubted his drive to succeed.

In 2006 at Double-A, D’Antona hit .312/.383/.487. In 2007 at Triple-A, hit he hit .308/.362/.499. This season, in 142 at-bats, D’Antona is smoking the ball with a line of .430/.445/.676. On the negative side, he has walked only three times. But he has shown a better eye at the plate in recent years and he keeps his strikeouts down (especially for a guy with power). He struck out 19.1 percent of the time in 2006, and 11.8 percent in 2007. So far this season, D’Antona has struck out 13.4 percent of the time.

He may not be the everyday player that the D-Backs envisioned when the organization drafted him, but D’Antona has the makings of a solid bench player and pinch hitter. He’s just in the wrong organization, as the club has a solid bench, and he would be a smart acquisition for a National League team as the Mark Sweeneys and Julio Francos of the world begin to show their ages and/or hang up their spikes for good.


Outfield Gluttony in San Diego

The San Diego Padres have some nice depth in the outfield, with at least one intriguing prospect at each level of the minor league system.

Triple-A: Chase Headley
Earlier this week I wrote about top prospect Headley who was recently converted from third base to left field. He is currently hitting .285/.356/.444 at Triple-A. In his last 10 games, Headley is hitting .395 with two homers and could be recalled any day now. The switch-hitter could stand to do some work on his swing from the right side with an OPS of only .705. He is also hitting only .233 with runners in scoring position.

Triple-A: Will Venable
Venable’s numbers have never quite matched his tools, although he has had pretty good success at the minor league level. So far this season he is hitting .289/.330/.470. After stealing 21 bases in 23 attempts last season, Venable has attempted only two steals (both successfully) in 2008.

Double-A: Chad Huffman
The former second round pick slammed 22 homers between two levels in 2007 but has yet to show that power this season in San Antonio. He currently has a line of .333/.424/.472 in 37 games. He is showing OK plate discipline with a walk percentage of 13.6 and a strikeout percentage of 17.9.

High-A: Cedric Hunter
Hunter, 20, is showing almost no power but he has the makings of a good leadoff hitter. His current line is .321/.403/.372 with only eight extra base hits (all doubles) in 156 at-bats. He could stand to walk more but it is impressive that he has more base on balls (21) than strikeouts (18). The left-handed batter is hitting .333 against southpaws.

Single-A: Yefri Carvajal
His numbers don’t wow you at the lowest level of full-season minor league baseball – .237/.275/.328 – but you have to remember that Carvajal is only 19 years of age. In his last 10 games, he is hitting .316 but has 12 strikeouts in 38 at-bats. Right now he remains an impressive collection of tools and projection.


Robbing the LineBRINK Truck

The San Diego Padres rescued Scott Linebrink off the scrap heap back in 2003 and he rewarded them in turn with roughly four years of valuable and reliable relief work. However, the greatest value that the Padres received from Linebrink’s tenure may have come from the 2007 trade that sent him to Milwaukee.

The Padres received three mid-level prospects from the Brewers in return for Linebrink’s services and one of those pitchers – Will Inman – is proving that he may turn out to be a steal. The other two are not half bad either.

Inman was originally selected out of a Virginia high school in the third round of the 2005 draft. Prior to the trade, Inman had always posted solid minor league numbers but at 6-1, 210 pounds he does not possess an ideal pitcher’s frame, which causes him to get overlooked. Since the trade, though, Inman has made sure people cannot overlook him any longer.

In seven starts in 2007 after the trade, Inman posted a 4.17 ERA in seven starts (41 innings) at Double-A San Antonio, which is a pretty good hitters’ park. He allowed 7.24 H/9 and posted an 8.78 K/9 rate. He struggled a bit with his control and allowed 4.17 BB/9.

Inman, 21, has been even better in 2008 with a return to San Antonio. In eight starts (43.2 innings) he has allowed 5.98 H/9 and has posted a 9.07 K/9 rate. Walks are still a bit of an issue with a rate of 3.71 BB/9. Over his four-year career, the right-hander now has an impressive line of 6.50 H/9, 2.80 BB/9, and 10.42 K/9. He should see Triple-A soon, and possibly the majors by the end of the season.

Southpaws Joe Thatcher and Steve Garrison were the other pitchers obtained by San Diego in the trade. Thatcher is the only one of the trio who has already appeared in the majors for San Diego. He was originally signed out of an independent baseball league after he had a poor final season at Indiana State University in 2004.

Once traded to San Diego, Thatcher, 27, posted a 1.04 ERA in eight Triple-A games and was called up to the majors. In his first taste of Major League Baseball, the lefty posted a 1.29 ERA in 22 games (21 innings) and allowed 5.57 H/9. He opened the 2008 season in the San Diego pen but was recently shipped back to Triple-A after posting a 6.75 ERA in 16 games (17.1 innings) and allowing 12.98 H/9.

Garrison, 21, was originally selected by Milwaukee out of a New Jersey high school in the 10th round of the 2005 amateur draft. He posted solid numbers through A-ball, as well as a 2.79 ERA in High-A Lake Elsinore after the trade in 2007. In 42 innings, he allowed 6.68 H/9 and posted rates of 1.29 BB/9 and 6.00 K/9.

In 2008 at Double-A San Antonio, Garrison has a 4.30 ERA in six starts (29.1 innings) and has allowed 8.90 H/9. He has struggled with his rates at 3.99 BB/9 and 5.52 K/9 and is probably headed for a future as a middle reliever or LOOGY.

So what did Linebrink do for Milwaukee? After he provided three straight seasons of 70-plus appearances between 2004 and 2006, Linebrink appeared in 27 games (25.1 innings) for Milwaukee and won two games, while losing three. He posted a 3.55 ERA. After that, though, the former second round pick of the San Francisco Giants filed for free agency and signed a lucrative contract with the Chicago White Sox.

In other words, the Brewers traded three pitchers – two of whom are left-handed – who could all easily pitch in a major league bullpen for 25 innings of middle relief. On the plus side, the Brewers will receive a supplemental first round pick (35th overall) and a second round pick (54th overall) for losing Linebrink to Chicago. Regardless, chalk one up for the Padres. If only they could draft as well as they trade.


San Diego Doesn’t Like the Number 1

To say the San Diego Padres have had a lot of bad luck drafting in the first round this decade would be an understatement. In the eight drafts so far, the club’s No. 1 picks have produced one Major League starter and one Top 10 prospect. The other six have crashed and burned or been derailed by injuries.

In 2000, the club began the decade by using its ninth overall selection to choose Mark Phillips out of a Pennsylvania high school. The hard-throwing lefty had control and command issues that he was unable to overcome. He was eventually shipped out to the New York Yankees, along with Bubba Trammell, in exchange for Rondell White.

2001 came along and saw the club draft infielder Jake Gautreau out of Tulane University with the 14 overall selection. He was unable to sustain his production in the upper levels of the minor leagues and was eventually traded to Cleveland for another disappointing former No. 1 pick in Corey Smith. Neither player has appeared in the majors.

In 2002 the club made its best selection of the decade when it took shortstop Khalil Greene out of Clemson University with the 13th overall pick of the draft. As we all know, Greene has gone on to be a solid, albeit unspectacular, regular at the Major League level (.252/.309/.435 line).

The club’s luck lasted just one year as it chose right-handed starter Tim Stauffer out of the University of Richmond the next season with the fourth overall pick. Stauffer was damaged goods and had a wonky shoulder. The good news is that he fessed up to the club before it handed him an obscene signing bonus. The bad news is that he told them after they wasted the fourth overall pick on him.

The club had the coveted first overall pick in 2004 but went the signability route and avoided some of the more talented (and expensive players) and took a local high school shortstop named Matt Bush. He proved within two years that he could not hit professional pitching so he took his plus-arm strength to the mound. In less than a month, though, he blew out his elbow and is recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Tommy John surgery also derailed 2005 first round pick Cesar Carrillo. The right-handed pitcher was taken 18th overall out of the University of Miami. He’s in Extended Spring Training working his way back from the injury.

The Padres organization disappointed some people with its 2006 first round pick. The club chose infielder Matt Antonelli out of Wake Forest University with the 17th overall pick. He was viewed by many as a “safe pick,” or in other words an advanced college hitter with a modest ceiling for development. Antonelli then quieted the complainers with an outstanding 2007 while playing in some very good hitters’ ballparks. He’s struggling at Triple-A this season.

The Padres have to be pretty sick of paying for Tommy John surgeries. Less than a month after beginning his career, the club’s 2007 No. 1 pick, Nick Schmidt, succumbed to the surgery. The 23rd overall selection was viewed as another “safe pick” with a limited ceiling. Those players are supposed to get to the majors quickly, but Schmidt’s time line will be set back one to two years because of the injury.

Yeah, it’s a pretty depressing list when you look at it all together. Maybe 2008 will be better when the club has another shot at the 23rd overall pick. It can’t get much worse.


Kouzmanoff and Company

Last week I talked about the Cincinnati Reds’ depth at third base. The San Diego Padres found themselves in a similar situation with current third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff, as well as prospects Matt Antonelli and Chase Headley. Unlike the Reds organization, which has had to move prospects to third base because of defensive deficiencies elsewhere, the Padres have been able to move prospects off third base to other positions: Antonelli to second base and Headley to left field. Those moves alleviate some of the stagnation issues that come with too much depth at any one position.

Kouzmanoff is by no means a top five third baseman in the National League. But to be fair, judging offensive contributions from offensive players on the Padres is never easy given the park that they play half of their games in. Overall, he is hitting .278/.310/.383 with three homers in 162 at-bats. Let’s take a look at his home and away splits:

Home: 80 AB .250/.265/.363 2 HR
Away: 82 AB .305/.352/.402 1 HR

Obviously, Kouzmanoff has a much nicer average at home but the power numbers are not that dissimilar. He is displaying below average power for a third baseman both on the road and at home. Kouzmanoff is also not a great defensive third baseman by any means. Should either Antonelli or Headley prove unable to handle their new positions in the long run, Kouzmanoff may not be showing enough to make himself irreplaceable.

Antonelli came close to winning the second base job this spring but was assigned to Triple-A for more seasoning, which probably turned out to be a good thing for the 2006 first round pick. He has taken OK to second base defensively, but his bat has struggled this season and he is hitting only .185/.329/.336 in 119 at-bats. Last season, Antonelli’s offence was probably a little overrated after he hit .314/.409/.499 in 347 High-A at-bats and .294/.395/.476 in 187 Double-A at-bats. Both of those parks – Lake Elsinore and San Antonio – are good hitter’s parks in good hitter’s leagues. Given that Antonelli came into 2008 with less than 200 at-bats above A-ball, it shouldn’t be that big of a surprise that he has struggled. With Tadahito Iguchi doing a respectable job of bridging the gap from present to future, the Padres can afford Antonelli the time to develop a little further.

Headley is having a better offensive time at Triple-A than Antonelli, although he did struggle early on in April. In his last 10 games, Headley has hit .429 (18-for-42) and has his line up to .294/.368/.441. Last season, the 2005 second round pick really put himself on the prospect map with a .330/.437/.580 performance at Double-A San Antonio. His power is down noticeably this season but he’s holding his own. With the Padres last in the National League in a number of key offensive categories (runs, average, on-base percentage and slugging) it may not be long before the club decides to shake things up. With less-than-inspired offensive performances from the likes of Justin Huber, Scott Hairston, Paul McAnulty and Jody Gerut, it may not be long before we see Headley patrolling left field for the Padres.


Red Hot Corner

The Cincinnati Reds have some depth at the hot corner, especially in the lower levels of the minor leagues. There is no rush for these players to develop as currently major league third baseman Edwin Encarnacion is showing signs of developing into a solid, albeit unspectacular, everyday player. He is currently hitting .258/.360/.492 but is showing increased home run power and better strike zone judgment with only 18 strikeouts and 19 walks. His walk percentage has almost doubled over last season from 7.2 to 13.7 percent. His strikeout percentage is down slightly from 17.1 to 15 percent.

Juan Francisco is a 20-year-old Dominican playing at High-A Sarasota. He’s hitting .275/.290/.464 with 11 doubles and five homers in 138 at-bats. Unfortunately, he has only three walks and 29 strikeouts. Last season he walked 23 times and struck out 161 times in 534 at-bats. He hits very well against left-handers, including .360/.379/.520 this season. The talent is there, he just needs to learn the strike zone and show a little more patience.

Brandon Waring, 22, is an intriguing prospect and he has flashed excellent power potential, both in college and in pro ball, after being signed in the seventh round of the 2007 draft. Currently in the Midwest League, Waring is hitting .302/.377/.575 with eight homers in 106 at-bats. He has also driven in 25 runs in 29 games. Unfortunately, like Francisco, he has work to do with the strike zone with only eight walks and 39 strikeouts. Last season, in the Pioneer League, Waring hit 20 homers in 267 at-bats but struck out 83 times.

I took a look at Todd Frazier yesterday, while reviewing the Reds’ 2007 draft and this is what I said him, in case you missed it: Frazier was the 34th overall pick out of Rutgers University and has been on the prospect radar since he was a kid. He also has two brothers who have played pro ball. Frazier is currently at shortstop but many feel he will have to move to third base as he climbs the ladder towards a major league career. He had a nice debut in 2007 and hit .319/.405/.538 over two levels. The Reds were cautious with him in 2008 and started him out at Dayton, where he ended last season, and he hit .321/.402/.598. The right-handed batter beat up on southpaws to the tune of .414/.485/.724. He was just promoted to High-A ball.

Depth is always nice to have and the Reds have a ton of it at the third base bag. All the players looked at above have things to work on, but the talent is undeniable.


The Little Red Machine

The Cincinnati Reds do not get enough credit for having a solid 2007 draft. Almost one year later, the Reds continue to reap the rewards of that draft, after the club skillfully combined prep and college picks together to creating an intriguing mix for the future.

Catcher Devin Mesoraco, drafted out of a Pennsylvania high school, was the club’s highest pick at 15th overall. He was a late riser as the draft approached and was not considered a first round pick when the high school season began in 2007. He has a nice combination of skills but he adjusted to pro ball slowly, not surprisingly for a 19 year old, and hit .219/.310/.270 in the Rookie League in 2007. He began 2008 in Extended Spring Training but has just been promoted to full season ball in the Midwest League, so it will be interesting to see how he adjusts.

Todd Frazier was the 34th overall out of Rutgers University and has been on the prospect radar since he was a kid. He also has two brothers who have played pro ball. Frazier is currently at shortstop but many feel he will have to move to third base as he climbs the ladder towards a major league career. He had a nice debut in 2007 and hit .319/.405/.538 over two levels. The Reds were cautious with him in 2008 and started him out at Dayton, where he ended last season, and he hit .321/.402/.598. The right-handed batter beat up on southpaws to the tune of .414/.485/.724. He was just promoted to High-A ball.

Right-handed pitcher Scott Carroll, who was drafted 104th overall out of Missouri State University, has been solid but not flashy. After a nice performance in the Pioneer League last season, Carroll has again been good, but not overwhelming, in the Midwest League. He has a 2.97 ERA in six starts, but he has struck out only 14 batters in 30.1 innings of work. He has done a respectable job of keeping the ball in the yard and has allowed only one homer. If he can miss a few more bats, he could be an interesting middle-of-the-rotation option.

Right-hander Kyle Lotzkar (British Columbia high school, 53rd overall), infielder Neftali Soto (Puerto Rico, 109th overall) and catcher Jordan Wideman (Ontario high school, 349th overall) are some other interesting prospects to keep an eye out for when the short season leagues begin play shortly after the June Amateur Draft.


Is Stubbs too Stubborn to Succeed?

Drew Stubbs has always been a talented ballplayer. He was a third round pick of the Houston Astros out of high school (He’s a Texas native) but chose to attend the University of Texas. He was then selected in the first round (eighth overall), and signed, by the Cincinnati Reds in 2006.

The 6-5, 190 pound outfielder looks like a ballplayer; he oozes tools and has excellent makeup. But there have always been questions about how well he would adjust to pro ball with a long swing and a history of difficulties with breaking balls.

Those concerns appeared justified after Stubbs, now 23, made his debut in the Pioneer Rookie League and hit only .252/.368/.400, which should be considered below average for a collegiate player in a league comprised mostly of high schoolers and raw Latin players. He also struck out 64 times in 210 at-bats.

The next season in 2007, Stubbs started out slowly in the Midwest League while many other top 2006 college picks were already in High-A ball. He was striking out at an alarming rate and many said those Ks would be the downfall of his professional career. Then the Dayton management, tired of seeing the players strikeout too much, forced everyone to choke up on the bat for a week.

Stubbs was so successful with that approach that he kept doing it, even after the choking-up enforcement was lifted. In the first year and a half of his career, Stubbs struck out 190 times in 161 games. In his last 24 games of 2007, Stubbs struck out only 16 times.

This season, though, the strikeouts are back with 34 in 31 games (115 at-bats), but he is hitting .296/.388/.470. Overall in 2007, he struck out 28.6 percent of the time. In 2008, he’s at 29.2 percent. If Stubbs can maintain his triple-slash rates while striking out at the same pace, he can still be an effective everyday ballplayer. However, it’s hard to believe he can continue to do so once he hits the better pitching that comes at the Double-A and Triple-A levels, let alone the majors.


Are the Reds Ready to Get a Little Greener?

Entering 2008 the Cincinnati Reds were supposed to feature two exciting rookies. No, not Joey Votto and Johnny Cueto. All the hoopla surrounding the Reds’ future involved top prospects Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey. But a funny thing happened along the way during spring training: It was decided Bruce and Bailey needed some more seasoning. And the emergence of Cueto, as well as the late March addition of free agent Corey Patterson, afforded the Reds that luxury.

Votto has enjoyed a solid season in Cincinnati, so far. He is hitting .294/.348/.506 and has four home runs in 85 at-bats. The 24-year-old Canadian has done the unthinkable: He’s taken playing time away from a veteran (Scott Hatteberg) under manager Dusty Baker’s watch.

Cueto was blowing everyone away early in the season – fans, writers and batters, alike. He’s likely hit the inevitable wall, after allowing 12 runs in his last two starts (including a stinker where he allowed seven runs in 1.2 innings against the surprising St. Louis Cardinals). In truth, his first major league appearance probably did him more harm than good after he caught everyone’s attention by allowing one run on one hit over seven innings, while striking out 10. The bar was raised a little too high after that, and he’s only been ‘pretty good’ since then, as his 5.40 season ERA shows.

Meanwhile, down on the farm in Triple-A, Bruce and Bailey are quietly going about their business showing that they are ready whenever the Reds organization decides it needs them.

Bruce, who turned 21 a month ago, is hitting .284/.308/.505 with five homers in 109 at-bats. He still has some rough spots, as witnessed by the fact he’s racked up 27 strikeouts and only six walks. But he’s stolen seven bases in as many attempts and the left-handed batter is hitting .303 against southpaws with an .801 OPS (but no walks in 33 at-bats). He’s been slumping lately and has hit only .152 in his last 10 games with 11 strikeouts in 32 at-bats.

Bailey has had only one bad outing in six appearances for the Triple-A Louisville Bats. On April 25 against Indianapolis he allowed four runs in six innings on six hits (Oh, the horror). Other than that, he’s been great. Overall, he has a 2.29 ERA and has allowed 30 hits in 39.1 innings of work. He’s improved his control and walked just nine batters, while striking out 32. He’s still obviously working up in the zone a lot and has a GO/AO (ground out to air out) rate of 0.76. The right-handed pitcher is holding left-handed batters to a .189 average.

Given the struggles of Bronson Arroyo (8.63 ERA) and Josh Fogg (9.27 ERA), Bailey could be up before Votto celebrates Victoria Day (May 19). Bruce could potentially help ignite the offence with outfielders Ken Griffey (.228/.310/.377), Patterson (.200/.263/.433), and Adam Dunn (.221/.375/.389) struggling.


Complementing Boston

The Boston Red Sox organization has had a lot of success with its minor league system lately, thanks to the arrival of players such as Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury. Both players had major impacts on Boston’s playoff run last year and they continue to hit well this season. Pedroia is hitting .293/.336/.407, while Ellsbury is currently hitting .280/.396/.440.

Those numbers are not dominating, but both players are solid complementary players – the exact type of players organizations like Boston need to produce. Because Boston is a large market club, it can afford to go out and hit the free agent market to acquire the super stars and major run producers. By producing its own complimentary players, the organization saves money by not having to overpay second-tier free agents, like a Mike Lamb or Mark Loretta, which it can then reinvest in player development.

Jed Lowrie is the most recent call-up who looks like he could have a long-term impact in Boston. He is a little more versatile than Pedroia and Lowrie can fill in at second base, third base and shortstop (although he’s best-suited to second). So far this season, Lowrie is batting .286/.333/.371 and has spent one game at second, three games at shortstop and 10 games at third.

In his career, Lowrie, 24, has hit .291/.386/.448 in 1,072 minor league at-bats. He has also walked almost as much as he’s struck out (165-186). Last season, split between Double-A and Triple-A, Lowrie hit 47 doubles to go along with 13 homers, which suggests there may be more power to come as he matures.

A switch-hitter, Lowrie has done better from the right side in recent years. Last season against southpaws at Triple-A, Lowrie hit .321/.371/.518 compared to .283/.345/.495. At Double-A, he hit .359/.400/.587 compared to .273/.413/.482. That pattern remains true in a very small sample size in 2008 at the major league level.

Other players on the cusp of providing depth in Boston include outfielder Brandon Moss (already on the 25-man roster), catcher George Kottaras and first baseman Chris Carter. The latter two were acquired in trades from other organizations.