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Hey, What Do You Know… Bavasi Got it Right!

I love the contradictions in Seattle. General manager Bill Bavasi likes to keep us on our toes as he commits to aging catcher Kenji Johjima, who will be 35 years old when his contract expires. Catchers don’t age overly well and Seattle has a cheaper, younger option available. Bavasi then designated veterans Greg Norton and Brad Wilkerson for assignment. After that, he created a mini re-building process by bringing up the organization’s top two position prospects: catcher/DH Jeff Clement and outfielder Wladimir Balentien.

Good riddance to both Norton and Wilkerson, as both were holding back better, younger, cheaper players. Wilkerson (.232/.348/.304 with no homers in 56 at-bats) was also under-performing.

Although Seattle is under .500, the club has the benefit of playing in the American League West so it is less than five games out of first place. Clement and Balentien should provide some much-needed offence for a club that is middle-of-the-road offensively (seventh out of 14 teams in runs per game at 4.59) in the American League (and the club is not going to pitch its way to a title – despite being fifth in the league in ERA at this point).

But are Clement and Balentien really well-suited for spacious Safeco Field? Both prospects have a lot of their value tied up in power. Clement was doing ridiculously well at Triple-A Tacoma with a line of .397/.535/.692. He also had hit five homers in 78 at-bats and walked 22 times while striking out only 12 times. Can you say dominating?

Clement’s power may take a hit in Seattle but he is proving that he is much more than a one-dimensional slugger. He has shown the ability to hit for average and get on base. Clement, who bats left, is also hitting .391 against southpaws and .400 against right-handers. The difference, though, is in the slugging percentage: .478 against lefties, .782 versus righties. Regardless, he should do very well in Seattle, although I’d like to see him behind the dish more often than we likely will.

Balentien has even more power than Clement but he will not hit for a high average. His line at Triple-A is .254/.329/.619. Balentien also does not walk as much as Clement so there is an awful lot of value tied up in the right-hander’s power. He has hit six homers in 63 Triple-A at-bats this season after slugging 24 in 477 Triple-A games last year (and having three straight 20-plus homer seasons).

He is a proven run producer and has driven in 20 runners in only 17 games and he drove in 84 last season. In the last three seasons, Balentien has struck out 160, 140 and 105 times in roughly 440-490 at-bats. Expect some monster home runs off his bat, but also expect some bumps in the road. Some people have knocked Balentien’s effort and attitude in the past and he might end up being the type of player who performs better under constant scrutiny and when the game is on the line.

Both players had a nice start to their 2008 seasons last night against Cleveland. Balentien went 2-for-4 with a three-run homer off Cliff Lee, who has a 0.96 and had not allowed a homer all season in 37.2 innings. Clement was 1-for-1 coming off the bench.


Red Sox Have Depth at First Base

If there is one area in the minor league system that the Boston Red Sox have depth it is at first base. And a lot of it has to do with the over-sized wallet that the club has, probably as much so as its solid scouting department.

Lars Anderson was drafted in the 18th round of the 2006 amateur draft, but he was not an 18th rounder in terms of talent. The prep first baseman also was not a consensus first or second round pick so teams knew he would be a difficult sign; more often then not those players end up in college in hopes of improving their draft stock (and the subsequent paycheck).

He was given $825,000 to sign, more money than Boston’s supplemental first round pick Caleb Clay received. After sitting out the 2006 season thanks to the ongoing contract negotiations, Anderson began his career in 2007 as a 19-year-old in full-season A-ball. He batted a respectable .288/.385/.443. This season, at the hitter’s haven known as Lancaster, Anderson is hitting .300/.400/.544 with five homers in 90 at-bats.

Michael Jones, 22, was drafted out of junior college in 2004 in the 25th round and has moved slowly through the system despite a career line of .309/.387/.466. This season in Greenville, Jones is hitting a robust .419/.480/.628 in 86 at-bats.

His teammates, as well as fellow first basemen, Anthony Rizzo and David Mailman are significantly younger. Rizzo is in full-season ball despite being only 18. He was drafted in 2007 in the sixth round and received about $200,000 more to sign than the average player in that round. This season, Rizzo is hitting .373/.402/.446 in 83 at-bats, but he has yet to hit a homer.

Mailman, was drafted a round later in 2007 but received even more money to sign – $550,000 because he was strongly committed to Wake Forest University – which was almost $400,000 more than any other player received in that round. Mailman, 19, has struggled with the batter this season with a line of .203/.298/.257 but has stolen six bases in nine attempts (despite having below average speed). He has also been spending time playing left field for Greenville.

Aaron Bates, 24, was a senior draft pick in the third round of the 2006 draft after he turned down Florida in 2005 in the eighth round as a junior. Now in his third season, Bates is hitting .264/.361/.292 in 72 at-bats. He is struggling to hit for power after slugging 29 homers and driving in 101 runs last season while splitting time between Lancaster and Portland.

Chris Carter is a former 17th round pick of Arizona’s out of Stanford University, who has done nothing but hit as a pro. He has a career line of .310/.390/.519 and is in his third season at Triple-A. Carter, 25, is currently batting .302/.368/.417 but has yet to hit a homer this season with 96 at-bats to his credit.


Keeping a Rookie Pitcher Grounded

Ignore the shiny 1.50 ERA that Boston rookie Justin Masterson has after just one major league start. ERAs are overrated at the best of times. The most important numbers on Masterson’s April 24 line against the Angels were the two hits allowed in six innings and the 11-3 ground outs to fly outs. Thanks to Boston’s impressive pitching depth, he was returned to Double-A after his first major league appearance.

Masterson, 23, was originally selected by Boston in the second round (71st overall) of the 2006 amateur draft out of San Diego State University. He is already perhaps one of the best pitchers in professional baseball when it comes to inducing ground balls. This is important because ground balls cannot fly out of the ballpark for a home run. Ground balls cannot sail over the heads of outfielders for bases-clearing triples. If you can find a ground ball pitcher that can also miss a lot of bats and strike out a ton of batters, then you have something special.

And Masterson is right on the cusp of being something special. He won’t strike out a ton of batters, as he averaged 7.20 K/9 in his minor league career coming into 2008. But he doesn’t walk many batters (career 2.04 BB/9) and he keeps the ball in the yard, having allowed only eight homers in 185.1 career innings prior to this season (0.39 HR/9). Keep in mind he also pitched at the launching pad known as Lancaster and allowed only four homers in 95.2 innings. This season in the minors, Masterson was averaging 3.57 ground balls for every fly ball. Last season, between High-A ball and Double-A he averaged 2.46 – including 2.05 at Lancaster and 3.52 in Portland.

The best ground ball pitchers in the majors in 2007 included Derek Lowe, Felix Hernandez, Fausto Carmona and Brandon Webb, heady company and a group for Masterson to aspire to join.


From Sleeper to Surgery to Sleeper Yet Again

Davis Romero, who just turned 25, is not the most well-known southpaw with the last name ‘Romero’ in the Toronto Blue Jays organization. That distinction goes to 2005 first round draft pick Ricky Romero. Davis is a diminutive starting pitcher (5-9, 140) from Panama, who was signed as a non-drafted free agent in 1999.

Prior to 2007, Romero posted career minor league numbers of a 3.37 ERA, 8.15 H/9, 2.43 BB/9 and 9.70 K/9. Impressive numbers but Romero continually had to prove himself at every level due to his size, or lack thereof. In 2006, Romero finally earned a late-season promotion to Toronto and posted a 3.86 ERA in 16.1 innings, but allowed 10.47 H/9 and 3.31 BB/9. He also had only 5.51 K/9.

In the spring of 2007, Romero’s body broke down and he underwent labrum surgery on his throwing shoulder and missed all of 2007. The good news, though, is that he is back and pitching in Triple-A Syracuse. The even better news is that Romero has looked very good, considering the severity of the surgery – one that many pitchers never make it back from.

While throwing with a strict pitch count, Romero has posted a 1.54 ERA in four starts. Over 11.2 innings, Romero has allowed only four hits and two runs. He has also struck out 13 and has not allowed a hit to a left-handed batter. On the down side, Romero has walked seven and is allowing as many flyballs as groundballs.

Even so, Romero is an interesting player to keep an eye considering the scarcity of quality left-handed pitching at the major league level.


Banking on a Fresh Start

The San Diego Padres made a seemingly insignificant roster move yesterday. The club claimed right-handed pitcher Josh Banks off waivers from the Toronto Blue Jays, after the Jays designated him for assignment when Shawn Camp was added to the roster. Banks is exactly the type of pitcher that can thrive at Petco Park and his stuff is much more suited to A) the National League, and B) a spacious park.

Banks, 25, is a former second round draft pick from the 2003 draft, who was actually a fringe first rounder until blister problems hampered him during his junior season at Florida International University. The track record for success is there. He blew through the lower levels of the minors with his plus control but hit a wall in Double-A at the age of 21.

The numbers tell it all about Banks. In 2005 in Double-A, Banks walked a total of 11 batters in 162.1 innings (that’s a 0.61 BB/9). But the next season in Triple-A, Banks allowed 35 homers in 170.2 innings. From 2005 to 2007 his strikeout totals dipped from 8.04 K/9 to 6.64 K/9 to 5.38 K/9.

Banks doesn’t walk anyone; in fact it seems like he would rather give up a hit – even a home run – than walk someone. Unfortunately, he gives up a lot of homers because he works up in the zone and leaves too many pitchers over the heart of the plate. His control is good, but his command is not as impressive. He throws six or seven pitches, including an 88-92 mph fastball that is a little too straight, a splitter (his out-pitch), slider, curve and change-up.

Banks is likely headed down to Triple-A Portland but keep that name in mind when the Padres organization needs its next Cla Meredith or Heath Bell or Chris Young. A change of scenery may be all that he needed.


Robinzon Diaz… Not Your Typical Catcher

Robinzon Diaz is not your typical catcher. The Dominican, who was signed as a non-drafted free agent by the Toronto Blue Jays in 2000, came into the 2008 season with a .305 career minor league average in six seasons. But he also had a slugging percentage of .388.

Diaz is similar to Vladimir Guerrero, in the sense that he is a bad-ball hitter that can make contact with just about any pitch. Last season at Double-A, the right-handed batter struck out 16 times in 301 at-bats (but also walked only 11 times). In 1,978 career at-bats, he has walked 98 times and struck out 155 times (which Adam Dunn could only dream of for a single season total).

Diaz has done nothing but hit in the minors, but he has moved slowly through the system due to less-than-impressive defensive skills. Although he is extremely athletic for a catcher, and the organization considered converting him to third or second base, Diaz struggled with game calling and receiving.

The young catcher, who is 24, has improved by leaps and bounds in the last year, though, according to the Jays organization. As such, he was promoted to the majors for the first time in his career when the organization released designated hitter Frank Thomas last week. Diaz was batting .368/.390/.553 at Triple-A. He also ended 2007 at Syracuse and batted .338/.358/.431 in 65 at-bats before an injury caused him to miss a September call-up.

One other interesting knock on Diaz throughout his career is that he tended to take it easy and never really gave his all. People have said that he is a good player, who could be a very good player if he dedicated himself to the game on an everyday basis. As a result, Diaz could end up being a lot like Florida’s Hanley Ramirez, who has posted much better numbers on the center stage that is Major League Baseball, than he ever did in the minors.


Snider Movin’ On Up to the East Coast

The Toronto Blue Jays organization promoted 2006 first round draft pick (14th overall) Travis Snider from High-A ball to Double-A at the beginning of the week. Many experts considered Snider to be the best pure hitter in the draft but some organizations were a little concerned with his prep football physique (5-11, 230). Regardless, Snider has done nothing but hit in the pro ranks and had a career line of .316/.388/.538 coming into the 2008 season.

Interestingly, Toronto actually planned to start Snider off in Double-A to begin the year, but an elbow injury caused the organization to rethink its plan to skip High-A ball altogether. He did not even play in minor league spring training this March because of soreness. As a result, Snider started out in the Florida State League where the weather was more forgiving than in the Eastern League. After just 61 at-bats, though, and having spent every game at designated hitter, the 20-year-old was promoted to Double-A shortly after the Jays released future Hall of Famer Frank Thomas.

The Jays organization continues to insist Snider’s injury is minor enough that it won’t need surgery and he is expected to begin a throwing program shortly and then re-enter the outfield. But the organization is not known for its candor and we’ve all read a lot about Albert Pujols‘ elbow situation.

Snider struck out at an alarming pace this season while in High-A ball with a rate of 36.1 percent. In his previous two seasons, Snider struck out at a rate of 24.2 (Rookie ball in 2006) and 28.2 percent (A-ball in 2007). In his Double-A debut, Snider went 1-for-5 with three strikeouts. Just as his strikeout rates have risen, his walk rates have lowered with each promotion, from 13.4 to 9.7 to 7.6 percent.

One cannot help but wonder if Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi has a sense of urgency to prove his amateur draft track record. Ricciardi came to Toronto from Oakland in November 2001 with a strong reputation for player development but only one of his first round draft picks has had an impact to this point (second baseman Aaron Hill).

Toronto has also failed to make the playoffs or show considerable improvement since he took the organizational reigns. The organization has also been involved in three high profile player disputes in recent years, involving Ted Lilly, Shea Hillenbrand and Thomas.

As a result, it might be make-or-break time for Ricciardi. By showing ownership that help is on the way – help acquired under his watch – the general manager may be thinking he can buy himself some time. Let’s just hope that is not the case. I’d hate to think someone who should know better is putting a promising player’s career at risk by rushing him through the system.

Editor’s Note: I just wanted to give a warm welcome to Marc Hulet. He’ll be covering the minor leagues and prospects for FanGraphs, and I think you’ll find his writing both informative and insightful. Marc writes a weekly column at Baseball Analysts and is a contributor to both battersbox.ca and bluejayway.ca. Marc, please let me know if I’ve missed anything!