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Rays Pull Off Inevitable Yunel Escobar Acquisition

It might not be fair to say the Tampa Bay Rays don’t care about player makeup concerns. You could conceivably come up with a hypothetical talented player so awful the Rays wouldn’t take a chance. Based on precedent and indications, it might be fair to say the Rays care the least about player makeup concerns of any team in the league. Almost by necessity, if you figure the Rays need to identify exploitable inefficiencies in order to survive. Given such, perhaps the least surprising move of the winter meetings so far is that the Rays acquired Yunel Escobar from the Marlins in exchange for Derek Dietrich.

Strip away the traits that make this deal unique and it makes plenty of sense on the face of it. Escobar wasn’t much of a fit with Miami, since the Marlins prefer Adeiny Hechavarria at shortstop. The Rays were looking for an everyday shortstop, the acquisition of which would allow Ben Zobrist to go back to roaming. The Rays wanted someone good now; the Marlins wanted someone potentially good later. Escobar is affordable, at $5 million in 2013, with $5 million options for each of the next two years. If the offseason is about front offices answering as many questions as they can, the Rays and Marlins both just answered questions by swinging this deal.

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Nationals Take the Dan Haren Shot

When the Angels allowed Dan Haren to walk away for nothing, the immediate speculation was that he’d look to stay on the West Coast. There seemed to be a natural fit with the Padres, and though there were lingering questions regarding Haren’s health, it was clear he was going to get a shot somewhere, and it was clear he was going to be in some sort of demand. Haren seems to have found a home now, on Tuesday, and it isn’t on the West Coast at all — it’s on the opposite of the West Coast, as Haren has an agreement with the Nationals for a year and $13 million.

The immediate implications are twofold. One, the Nationals have an agreement with Dan Haren! Two, with Haren, the Nationals would be removed from the Zack Greinke sweepstakes, almost certainly. Greinke had been linked most often to the Dodgers, Angels, Nationals, and Rangers, and Haren would round out the Nationals’ starting rotation, eliminating the need. Not that the Nationals were considered a favorite for Greinke’s services, but one less suitor is one less suitor, even though the Dodgers are all the suitors a free agent needs.

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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat


The Zack Greinke Alternative

There’s not a whole lot of question right now regarding just who is the top free-agent starting pitcher available. When in doubt, follow the Dodgers. It was thought that re-signing Zack Greinke would be the Angels’ main offseason priority. They’re still interested, but they might be priced out. The Dodgers are in there and flashing their wallets. The Rangers might be just as interested. The Nationals are involved to some kind of extent. Greinke is the available free-agent ace, and everybody else is, at best, second-tier.

For the teams looking for quality starting pitching that miss out on Greinke, there are alternatives, who could be signed or traded for. Ryan Dempster is a free agent, and a good deal older than Greinke. Kyle Lohse is a free agent and he’s going to cash in to some degree. Among trade candidates, R.A. Dickey could be tremendously valuable, James Shields could be similarly valuable, and Jeremy Hellickson might or might not be extremely valuable, depending on your interpretation of his statistics. But there’s another quality free agent, the same age as Greinke, who could be of nearly as much value for a considerably lesser cost.

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Red Sox Replace James Loney with Mike Napoli

Early on during the winter meetings, we’ve seen the Rays agree to terms with James Loney, and the Padres agree to terms with Jason Marquis. Now we’ve seen the Red Sox agree to terms with an actual good player, signing Mike Napoli for three years and $39 million. In theory, this’ll cause more dominoes to fall. In reality, more dominoes will fall regardless.

From this we can learn a little something about reported rumors and reported demands. Napoli was said on several occasions to be holding out for a four-year contract. He didn’t get it. Napoli was said on some occasions to be insistent on catching. With the Red Sox, he’ll predominantly be a first baseman. Either Napoli isn’t getting exactly what he wanted, or what he wanted wasn’t accurately conveyed.

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Angels Replace Risky Dan Haren with Risky Tommy Hanson

Some time ago, the Angels attempted to trade Dan Haren to the Cubs in exchange for Carlos Marmol. The Angels had concerns about Haren, and wanted to turn him into something useful. The Cubs had concerns about Marmol, and wanted to turn him into something useful. On paper, the deal looked lopsided in the Cubs’ favor, and so one had to consider that maybe the Angels knew something scary about Haren’s medicals. Sure enough, the deal fell through, and now Haren is a free agent looking for a short-term contract. No one’s going to be ballsy enough to give him a long-term contract.

Friday, the Angels completed sort of the opposite of that Haren/Marmol trade. Instead of the Angels dealing a troubled starter to get a troubled reliever, they’ve dealt the somewhat troubled Jordan Walden to the Braves in exchange for the troubled Tommy Hanson. Unlike with Haren, we don’t have to speculate that something might be up with Hanson, physically — we know that his shoulder has been groaning. The Angels, without question, know that they’re taking a chance, here. They determined, at the cost of Jordan Walden, the chance is worth taking.

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Russell Martin Bringing New Element to Pirates Baseball

Russell Martin was a Yankee, and then Russell Martin became a free agent. Russell Martin is a catcher, and once he became a free agent, the Yankees were in need of a catcher. Russell Martin is pretty good, and he wasn’t looking to break the bank with a contract. Russell Martin is 29. Martin seemed like an excellent candidate to re-sign, and indeed, there were indications that the Yankees were making Martin a priority. Then Thursday, Martin signed a two-year deal with the Pirates. It’s worth just $17 million, but the Yankees reportedly weren’t interested in matching that price. While the Pirates had been mentioned as a serious suitor in recent days, it’s an undeniable surprise to see the Yankees essentially get priced out for something they could really use.

The Yankees, as has been mentioned several times over, are trying to avoid paying luxury-tax penalties in 2014, meaning they’ve placed a particular emphasis on one-year contracts. In that light, staying away from Martin makes some sense, but the Yankees still need a catcher, and guys like A.J. Pierzynski and Mike Napoli are unlikely to sign for one season. Surely the Yankees will figure something out, and this isn’t going to make or break their whole next year, but from the outside, this is a little perplexing.

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The 2012 Season In High Home Runs

Last time, I said this didn’t need any introduction, then I wrote a three-paragraph introduction. That’s probably going to happen again, because if I know anything, I know me. See? I’m wasting words already. Here’s the background:

I’m looking for pitches in extreme locations that were hit for dingers. Following will be the highest pitches that were hit for dingers this past season. I’m fascinated by what happens at the extremes, and if you aren’t, I guess that just makes us two different people, which we already knew beforehand.

This, as you can tell, is the fourth part of a four-part series. There are virtually limitless ways that you can sort all the season’s home runs, and I might go on to look at, say, the fastest and slowest pitches that got hit out, but I’d consider that a different but related series. Like a sibling, but not a twin.

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B.J. Upton, Braves Reach Hefty, Predictable Agreement

For several months, now, the Atlanta Braves have looked like a fitting future home for B.J. Upton. Once Upton officially became a free agent, the Braves made no secret of their interest, and in fact nearly two weeks ago it was suggested to me that I begin writing about Upton signing with Atlanta. That turned out to be not so much a false alarm as a hasty one — Upton didn’t sign then, and other teams sniffed around, but Upton has signed now, with the Braves for five years and just over $75 million. The predictable match is indeed the match that we observe, as Upton has landed his big-money contract, and as the Braves have landed their top offseason priority.

With the Braves, Upton basically replaces Michael Bourn in center field. The Braves aren’t done, as they still have a hole on one side of Upton (assuming Martin Prado shifts to third), but that’ll be addressed in time, and that also isn’t what’s relevant today. B.J. Upton is 28 years old, with a new employer that just made a substantial long-term commitment, and he should be discussed.

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The Extremity of Wilton Lopez

There’s a fun game I’ve enjoyed playing, called Spot The Half-Decent Astro. It’s challenging, because there haven’t been very many of them, and because I could never get anyone else to play too. Did you know that the 2012 Astros’ team leader in home runs was Justin Maxwell? Do you know anything about Justin Maxwell, aside from his name and that fact? The Astros have been dreadful for a reason — they haven’t had very many good players. One of their few good players has been reliever Wilton Lopez. Now Wilton Lopez isn’t an Astro anymore.

Basically. The Astros and Phillies have unofficially swung a trade, sending Lopez to Philadelphia, and sending a prospect or two or more to Houston. Without knowing anything about the prospect(s), it’s a sensible trade for Houston, because what they don’t need right now are good relievers. And it’s a sensible trade for Philadelphia, because it makes them better now and the Phillies are all about the now.

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