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Fernando Rodney Is Ricky Vaughn

Fernando Rodney’s 2012 season is redefining relief domination. The veteran flamethrower is turning into the real life version of Ricky “Wild Thing” Vaughn, transforming from a wild pitcher who never harnessed his stuff into one of the surest ninth innings in baseball. Rodney will carry a 38 FIP- and an incredible 11 ERA- into his next appearance. It’s only 22.2 innings, but Rodney would need to walk 25 batters and allow 15 runs in his next 9.1 innings to equal his totals from 32 innings last season.

Ricky Vaughn didn’t find the strike zone until manager Lou Brown discovered that his fireballer needed glasses. It’s unclear if Joe Maddon, pitching coach Jim Hickey or some other Rays coach is the Lou Brown in Rodney’s story, but Rodney definitely has his own version of Vaughn’s glasses this season. Observe, Rodney’s release point in 2012, compared to 2011:

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Red Sox Forced To Shuffle Outfield

With five outfielders already on the disabled list, the Red Sox were already spread thin in a position once thought to be a strength. Then Cody Ross factured a bone in his left foot in Monday’s game. Adding insult to injury is the promotion of Scott Podsednik just a couple of hours before game time, a move which portends a trip to the 7-Day DL for Ryan Sweeney (concussion).

As a result, the Red Sox have two options: play bad outfielders like Podsednik and Che-Hsuan Lin and wait for the cavalry to return, or get creative. Bolstered by the return of Kevin Youkilis, Bobby Valentine has chosen the latter with his lineup for tonight’s game. Youkilis will man first base, shifting Adrian Gonzalez to right field for his first outfield action in a non-interleague game.

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Jack Moore FanGraphs Chat – 5/22/12


Albert Pujols Finds Center Field

Big news in Los Angeles of Anaheim these past couple days: Albert Pujols has hit home runs in back-to-back games. Just as after Pujols hit his first homer of the season back on May 6th, one question rules Angels-related discourse: is Albert back? Pujols did hit in six of his next eight games following that first home run, but the result was just a .265/.285/.265 line. Is anything different this time around? Can Angels fans finally start to believe? A quick look at where these home runs fell suggests yes, a rebound should be here soon for Pujols.

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Wei-Yin Chen’s Surprising Fastball

With an inability to develop quality arms stateside, the Baltimore Orioles have made an attempt to solve their pitching woes through the international market. Specifically, the Orioles have dove headfirst into Asia — too aggressively for the tastes of some in the Far East — bringing in two starting pitchers for 2012 in Tsuyoshi Wada and Wei-Yin Chen. Wada will spend the year rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but the early returns on Chen have been extremely positive. Chen held the Yankees to two earned runs over 7 innings Tuesday night, extending his streak of starts with three or fewer earned runs through his first seven career starts. Chen owns a 2.66 ERA and a solid 3.41 FIP in his first 44 innings as an American professional, exceeding the expectations many had for him entering the year.

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Are The Phillies Misusing Jonathan Papelbon?

Jonathan Papelbon has been sharp in his debut season with the Phillies thus far. He has allowed just four runs in his first 15 innings of work (2.40 ERA) and continues to blow away hitters, notching 18 strikeouts already. He was unavailable Monday afternoon, though — after throwing the past three nights consecutively, including with a four-run lead in Sunday’s game (+0.01 WPA), Papelbon was unavailable. It was Chad Qualls’s ninth inning, then, when the Phillies took a 3-1 lead into the ninth against the Astros.

Qualls wouldn’t finish the ninth, as the Astros tied the game behind four hits and nearly took the lead, stranding runners on second and third thanks to Jake Diekman’s first career strikeout. Hunter Pence picked up Qualls with a walk-off home run in the 10th inning, but with Papelbon making $50 million over the next four years, it’s easy to question Charlie Manuel when he sits in the bullpen as a journeyman reliever blows a save. Is what we saw Monday a theme for the season?

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Jack Moore FanGraphs Chat – 5/15/12


Colby Lewis’s Two True Outcomes

The game of baseball is full of statistical oddities. In Thursday’s start against the Baltimore Orioles, Colby Lewis added to that list, allowing six runs despite striking out 12 batters and allowing five hits thanks to all five flying over the Camden Yards fences for home runs. Only two other times has a team homered in each one of at least five hits, and never before has a pitcher struck out 10 or more batters while still allowing five home runs.

As unusual as the game was, Lewis’s role as its pitcher is a perfect fit. Although he is a good pitcher overall — he owns an above average ERA- and FIP- since returning to the United States in 2010 — Lewis has been prone to the homer-fueled blowup. Lewis has now allowed multiple home runs in 15 of his 71 starts since 2010, including a four-homer game June 6th, 2011 against the Tigers. Only Bronson Arroyo, James Shields, Ervin Santana, Ted Lilly and A.J. Burnett have exceeded that total.

Lewis also has excellent strikeout stuff for a starter, with an 8.2 K/9 since 2010. He owns eight starts of at least 10 strikeouts over the past three years as well — only 11 pitchers have exceeded that total.

All of which is to say when he’s on, he can be nearly unhittable, but when he loses command inside the strike zone, things get ugly in a hurry. We saw both versions of Colby Lewis over seven-plus innings of work Thursday. When Lewis was away from the heart of the strike zone, he was golden. When he gave batters something to hit, they didn’t miss. Observe:

After allowing home runs the first three batters of the game, Lewis threw six perfect innings before Adam Jones led off the seventh with the fourth homer of the game. When he was on, Lewis was able to get whiffs on pitches out of the zone and spot the corners with near-perfect precision. And it’s not as if every pitch Lewis missed with was right over the heart of the plate — the upper-most one (hit by J.J. Hardy) certainly was, but the others were relatively near a corner and lower in the zone.

This is just how talented major league hitters are — many of them have the power to hit any pitch in the strike zone out of the ballpark at any given moment. Usually, a pitcher isn’t punished so horribly for every single mistake he makes over the course of a seven-inning start. Usually he gets a few line drive outs or a warning track fly ball at least. Not for Colby Lewis on Thursday — if the Orioles had a chance to hit it, they blasted it out, and the result is what could have been one of the best starts of Lewis’s turned into a 6-5 loss for the Rangers and just the latest in baseball’s long list of statistical weirdness.


Solving The Middlebrooks-Youkilis Dilemma

Will Middlebrooks is making Kevin Youkilis easy to forget. The 23-year-old top prospect has taken the world by storm as Youkilis’s injury replacement. Even in taking an 0-for-4 in Wednesday’s loss to the Royals, Middlebrooks owns a .520 wOBA on the back of four doubles and three home runs in six games. It has been an incredibly exciting debut for Boston and fans of young players in general, one that of course raises the question: what happens when Kevin Youkilis returns?

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Carlos Zambrano Reborn in Miami

Through all the tirades and tantrums that marred his eventual exit from Chicago, it can be easy to forget Carlos Zambrano is just 30 years old. This season, Zambrano is showing the world that he just might have something left in the tank. Through 41 innings, Zambrano is the proud owner of a 1.98 ERA. Despite his effectiveness, he wasn’t rewarded with his first victory of the season until Monday night, when he twirled his best start of the season, a complete game, nine-strikeout shutout of the Astros in Houston. In many ways, Zambrano is looking like the pitcher who shined with the Cubs throughout the last decade.

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