Solving The Middlebrooks-Youkilis Dilemma

Will Middlebrooks is making Kevin Youkilis easy to forget. The 23-year-old top prospect has taken the world by storm as Youkilis’s injury replacement. Even in taking an 0-for-4 in Wednesday’s loss to the Royals, Middlebrooks owns a .520 wOBA on the back of four doubles and three home runs in six games. It has been an incredibly exciting debut for Boston and fans of young players in general, one that of course raises the question: what happens when Kevin Youkilis returns?

Ben Cherington has already shot down one popular solution: moving Middlebrooks to the outfield. With Carl Crawford out much longer than expected, there will be a bit of shallowness to the Red Sox outfield even upon Jacoby Ellsbury’s return. Playing Middlebrooks in a corner would allow the Sox to platoon Cody Ross and Ryan Sweeney in the other, which was the likely plan for the duo heading into the season. If Middlebrooks’s bat is real at all, it’s quite likely an improvement on running Darnell McDonald or Marlon Byrd (and his -1 wRC+) out there on daily basis. Middlebrooks is projected for a .251/.286/.420 line (.309 wOBA) by ZiPS, and his fast start between Triple-A and MLB could be reason to believe he can do even better. Byrd and McDonald are each projected for .306 wOBAs, but McDonald hasn’t played that well since 2010 and Byrd, again, has a -1 wRC+ this season.

Middlebrooks should be able to outhit both of them. He would, however, need time to learn the position — he’s never played it professionally — a potential detriment to his development as a hitter. Considering this and the fact that McDonald and Byrd would likely be superior defenders, the gain seems minimal. The Red Sox apparently agree, and that leaves us back at square one: who plays third base upon Middlebrooks’s return?

The option of keeping both on the roster is unrealistic. At just 23 and in the midst of his fifth professional season (fourth full), Middlebrooks needs consistent at-bats regardless of the level he is assigned. Similarly, keeping Youkilis and his $12 million contract on the roster as a bench bat isn’t a plausible solution either, both due to the money and that Youkilis, despite his early season slump, is probably still a better hitter than Middlebrooks. Even in last year’s down campaign, Youkilis managed a 126 wRC+ and hasn’t been worse than 124 since 2006. Middlebrooks could be a good hitter already this season, but asking him to put up a 125 wRC+ as a 23-year-old rookie with just 100 PAs at Triple-A is a tall order. Just seven third basemen have hit that well at 23 or younger since 2000: Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Troy Glaus, Pablo Sandoval, David Wright, Evan Longoria and Eric Chavez.

Still, if the Red Sox could get average to above-average third base production out of Middlebrooks, they’d be well served to shop Youkilis, as his contract should fetch value. Beyond the $12 million this season, the Red Sox also hold an extremely attractive $13 million club option with just a $1 million buyout. With a low-risk shot at holding Youkilis for two years, Boston could conceivably bring in pieces for both the present and future. Specifically, the Sox could use another corner outfielder or any sort of useful pitching arm — most likely in the bullpen unless they are bent on replacing Clay Buchholz, Felix Doubront or Dan Bard (or decide to move one of them to the pen).

Of potential playoff contenders in need of a corner infielder, Cleveland, Milwaukee, the Dodgers and the White Sox immediately come to mind, and perhaps Philadelphia depending on Ryan Howard’s progression or willingness to move Placido Polanco to second base. More suitors could easily crop up in the next few weeks as well.

Given the drama already forming between Bobby Valentine and Kevin Youkilis, a trade may have been inevitable. However, the presence of Middlebrooks as a legitimate option at third base gives the Red Sox an excellent opportunity to turn this negative into a positive and fill gaps at areas of greater need. Boston should consider themselves lucky — the injury to Youkilis, opening the door for Middlebrooks, may lead to an even better Red Sox team in 2012 and beyond.





Jack Moore's work can be seen at VICE Sports and anywhere else you're willing to pay him to write. Buy his e-book.

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Andrew
11 years ago

I’m not sure where the value is paying 12/13m for an aging 3B with an increasing streak of injury proneness who, if everything clicks, might – might – be worth 8 WAR this year and the next, with ZIPS having him at 3 WAR this year and presumably less next year. That’s zero value, once we realize he’s not going to hit 3 WAR this year due to injury/early slump. Bringing in a notable piece for Youkilis just seems unlikely.

Sam
11 years ago
Reply to  Andrew

If the Red Sox can find a trade partner who both needs a 3B AND doesn’t have a strong DH slot, Youk could definitely be worth his contract. With Big Papi, Youk doesn’t get any fielding days off, which can’t help his aging body. If he can play DH for 1/3 of his at-bats, that might keep Youk a happy and healthy Youk, which would be great for anyone trading for him. I think Boston could pull off a very beneficial deal here. They just need to get working on it.

chuckbmember
11 years ago
Reply to  Sam

Being worth his contract is not the same as bringing back decent value in a trade. Youkilis has to be worth considerably more than his contract to justify another team giving the Sox a useful piece in addition to taking on that contract. I suppose it’s possible that the Sox could eat half of it and get something halfway useful back but it still seems to make more sense to me to keep Youkilis and let him improve.

Derek
11 years ago
Reply to  Andrew

you obviously don’t watch the Dodgers much. Also lol at him only producing a 8 WAR. The truth is even if Youkilis produces at a reduced rate, like he did last year, he’ll still be better than 90% of the 3rd basemen in baseball.

The Dodgers would be absolutely thrilled to have a 3rd basemen under contract for the next 1.5 years that will put up a .850 ops.

That being said the Sox shouldn’t expect some huge bounty for Youk. Obviously whether they end up contending, or not, will decide what they want or if they want to trade him but if they do I don’t see them getting top prospects.

Shedding his salary and opening up a spot for Will should be enough. At most they can get a back end starter and late relieving prospect for Youk. David Wright possibly being available could also make his value even less.

filihok
11 years ago
Reply to  Derek

Ned did trade Carlos Santana for 3 months of Casey Blake. I can only imagine what he’d give up for 1.5 years of Youk.