Over the next few days, I will be running out a series based on win probabilities from the World Series not only using single game win probabilities like the ones in our game graphs, but also using overall series win probabilities, which will be introduced today.

The idea behind the series win probabilities is based around the same idea as the single game win probabilities we use here: both teams have a 50% chance of winning each game. As such, this flow chart describes every possible path for a team through the World Series (or any other seven game series; the part from 1-1 up would describe a five-game series):

Click to embiggen, and then follow the jump for more on what’s inside.

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There was a moment, as the Cardinals and Rangers somehow dragged themselves through the middle innings of Game Six, when David Freese was the goat for the Cardinals. Freese was 0-for-2 through the first five innings, but it wasn’t like he stranded the bases loaded or struck out looking twice. It wasn’t the bat. It was this one moment here that induced cringes (and laughs) nationwide, captured by SB Nation’s Jeff Sullivan:

When it comes to pitching, the pop-up is the next best thing to a strikeout. Batters reach on pop-ups around two percent of the time. There it was, already inside Freese’s glove. And then, there it was again, on the ground, as one of the Cardinals’ biggest postseason heroes committed one of the most egregious errors a Major League baseball player can ever commit, whether it’s Game Six of the World Series or a 6-0 sixth inning in the 66th game of the season. Of course, the error would be punished, as a mere two pitches later Michael Young drilled a double to the left field gap which plated Hamilton, the go-ahead run.

The stage was set, should the Rangers just hold on, for Freese’s mistake to be the one that ended the Cardinals’ season. But, as Jonah Keri reminded us in his fantastic recap for Grantland, without the constraint of a clock, as long as there remains an out to be made, any scenario is possible.

Like going from the goat who blew the Little League play to putting together one of the greatest games in World Series history.

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The St. Louis Cardinals’ 16-run output in Game Three was the kind of thing we came to expect from Albert Pujols and company this season — besides the offensive explosion against the Brewers in the NLCS, the Cardinals scored the most runs in the National League by 27, a greater number than the distance between second place (Cincinnati and Colorado, tied) and seventh place (Philadelphia).

With a heart of the order like the Cardinals can boast, with Pujols, Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman, David Freese, and Yadier Molina occupying spots three through seven, nobody should be surprised — those five combined for 129 runs above average despite dealing with injuries along the way.

But there was one weakness all season for St. Louis — namely, the top of the order — and in the World Series, that weakness has risen to the forefront.

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Elvis Andrus, entering the 9th inning of Game Two, did not have a storied postseason career.

In 28 games and 129 plate appearances prior to facing Jason Motte in the ninth inning of Thursday’s contest, Elvis Andrus owned a .247 batting average, a .318 on-base percentage, and a .274 slugging percentage. Elvis Andrus is not necessarily employed for his bat, but with a -0.48 WPA in at-bats totaling about a fifth of a full season, Andrus had not been either good nor clutch at the plate in these all-important playoff games.

So, naturally, it was Elvis Andrus who sparked the two-run rally which gave the Rangers the Game Two victory.

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As far as team sports go, baseball is a bit odd. Unlike the constant motion sports like hockey and basketball and soccer, baseball is incredibly granular, with each event taking part in its own discrete space. The only major team sport (at least in America) that shares this granularity is football, but even football shares more with the aforementioned three than it does with baseball, due to the necessity of exceptionally coordinated team movements.

Instead, baseball is a series of individual vs. individual events. Oddly enough, this highly individual-based game seems to prevent all but the very greatest players of all time from carrying teams on their backs to championships — and even then, the production of a Barry Bonds or an Albert Pujols cannot hold a candle to what a Michael Jordan or a Bill Russell ever did for their teams, largely because these highly individualized events can actually exclude baseball’s superstars from even participating at all when the game is on the line.

Perhaps it is because of this phenomenon of the sport that we’ve seen Mike Napoli — a semi-platooned catcher-slash-designated hitter who was cast off by not one but two general managers by February– define so much of the American League in 2011.

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The Rangers have had their fair sure of playoff heroes this year. After all, it takes more than one player to facilitate a 6-2 run against two of the league’s best teams. But there have been a select few players keying the Rangers’ success in October. Nelson Cruz has been the guiding light so far, with the walk-off grand slam in Game Two and the throw to nab Miguel Cabrera at the plate as well as the three-run home run to bury the Tigers in Game Four. Neftali Feliz and Alexi Ogando have been fantastic in relief, throwing nine combined innings with only one run allowed and a whopping 13 strikeouts. Mike Napoli had the game-winning hit on Wednesday.

Those are all names people expected to propel the Rangers to victory. But with the exception of Cruz, one could make the argument that Scott Feldman has been more crucial to the Rangers’ ALCS success. His 5.1 innings pitched trail only Colby Lewis, who had a very mediocre start in Game Three, the Tigers’ only victory so far. Feldman also has a stellar +0.45 WPA in this time, trailing only Feliz among pitchers and actually outpacing Cruz’s contribution with the bat (+0.37), only falling behind after we add in Cruz’s fantastic throw, which was worth roughly +0.36 WPA according to The Hardball Times’s WPA calculator.

Scott Feldman was a 17-game winner two years ago (for all that matters), but he failed to make an impact in 2010 and spent much of 2011 injured. How is he now the relief ace pacing the Rangers through the ALCS?

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As Shaun Marcum takes the mound for Game 2 of the NLCS against Milwaukee tonight, the shadow of a 4.2 inning, seven run implosion against Arizona in Game 3 of the NLDS will loom large. But Marcum’s first playoff start is the only recent negative for the right-handed changeup specialist: Marcum has only put together two solid outings since the calendar flipped to September. After hanging seven innings of shutout, one-hit ball against the Astros on September 4th, Marcum has made five starts (including the playoff outing) for a total of 29 innings, 25 earned runs (a 7.76) ERA, a rough 18-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and six home runs.

The playoff start puts the 29-year-old’s innings total for the year at 205.1, a career high, just over the 195.1 he posted coming off Tommy John surgery last season. With Marcum, never a picture of durability, we must ask: Are these struggles just the struggles pitchers work through over long seasons, or is he burnt out after the longest season of his career?

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