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Athletics Deal Mark Ellis, Commit to Jemile Weeks

Jemile Weeks has been as advertised for Oakland. Through his first 20 games, the younger Weeks has compiled a .303/.346/.461 line to go with six stolen bases in eight attempts, adding up to a .359 wOBA and a 131 wRC+. The second baseman of the future for the Athletics has quickly become the second baseman of the present.

Just as quickly, Mark Ellis became the second baseman of the past for the Athletics. His ineffectiveness had those around the A’s discussing Weeks’s impending arrival; his early-June hamstring injury began the Weeks era. At his return, the A’s had a decision to make. The A’s decided quickly, moving the venerable second baseman to Colorado for pitcher Bruce Billings and a player to be named later. The trade sees the exit of a player who defines the Moneyball Athletics, as Ellis compiled $83.5 million worth of value for only $27.3 million in salary as an Athletic.

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Red Sox Opt For Offense in NL Park

With a right-handed pitcher on the mound for the second game of the Philadelphia Phillies-Boston Red Sox series, Terry Francona has decided to rearrange his lineup and get all his biggest bats into the game. That means he has to find two places on the field for Adrian Gonzalez and David Ortiz, neither of which is particularly fleet of foot, and although Gonzalez has a slick glove, it’s fair to question how he could handle the outfield. These questions will be answered today, as Francona has elected to put Gonzalez in right field to open up first for the statue that is David Ortiz.

Ortiz effectively replaces Mike Cameron in the lineup. Cameron has been a shell of his former self this year, posting a miniscule 25 wRC+, whereas Ortiz has been playing his best baseball in years, posting a 165 wRC+, a difference on the order of 90 runs over the course of a full season. The true talent difference probably isn’t quite that large, but throwing in the platoon advantage it’s not difficult to imagine an offensive gain of around half a run per game with this move.

This will be Gonzalez’s first game as a right fielder since he played eight innings there for the Rangers in 2005. The worst right fielders (think Adam Dunn and Brad Hawpe) tend to be around -30 runs over a full season, and I can’t imagine Gonzalez, very out of practice and lacking outfield range, would be much better. David Ortiz has been the butt of jokes as an American League representative at first base in All-Star Games at NL parks before, which should speak to how poor he is in the field. Think Prince Fielder, but without the practice of playing the position every day, and probably with less range. The defensive difference between Gonzalez and Cameron, two above-average defenders, as opposed to Ortiz and Gonzalez, likely two of the worst fielders in the game at their position, could approach something like 50 runs over the course of a whole season, or about a third of a run per game.

So although the difference in runs per game appears negligible, just looking at these dry statistics, I think Francona is making a great decision with this lineup. With John Lackey on the mound, the Red Sox may need to score more runs than usual regardless of the quality of their defense. Also, in one individual game, there’s a chance Gonzalez may only be forced into action at RF two or three times, and Ortiz may not even have to face any challenging plays at first. Regardless of what happens in the game, though, both the first baseman and right fielder will have to hit at least three times, and likely four or five.

The Red Sox have a flexible enough bench that they can easily go to a defensive replacement at any time in the game by inserting Cameron into right field and returning Gonzalez to first base. With the heavy-hitting run-scoring lineup on the field to begin the game, the Sox may be able to sprint out to an early lead and then revert to a defensive lineup in the later innings. Francona is employing a creative and potentially risky plan, but the flexibility of his lineup and talent of his hitters suggest that it is the right one.


Rays Staying In the Race with Defense

The 2010 Seattle Mariners were supposed to be the team to show us what defense can mean to a team. Despite their objectively poor lineup and relatively shallow pitching staff, Seattle’s defense was supposed to give them a chance to win the AL West. Obviously, that didn’t happen, and certain websites may have taken a bit of flak as a result. But don’t think for a second the model can’t work. As Seattle assistant GM Tony Blengino told us at one of our events in Arizona this year, if a team is average in every respect and great in one, they have a chance to win a lot of games.

Meet the 2011 Tampa Bay Rays. They have a 100 wRC+ and a 104 FIP-. Average pitching, and average hitting. And their record? 44-35, only two games out of the wild card race and 2.5 out of the AL East lead. And their defense? Nothing short of great.

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Jack Moore FanGraphs Chat – 6/28/11


College World Series Teams Love Bunting

Over the last couple of weeks, ESPN has been broadcasting NCAA baseball, from the regional championships leading up to the currently-airing College World Series. There’s something that draws me to lower level baseball. Maybe it’s how bad I am at the game. Maybe it’s the fact that clutch actually might exist at lower levels. Maybe it’s the pure uncertainty — these college players are not the machines we watch at the MLB level. They make mistakes, and games and even seasons can turn on them.

But then there’s the bunts. So many bunts. I went back and took a look at the game logs for the first ten games of the College World Series to see just how many times teams tried to bunt. Keep in mind that this doesn’t even account for times when a player attempted to bunt but swung away later in the at-bat, and I also may have missed a few failed sacrifices which were classified as fielder’s choices, but I think the point gets across:

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The Cubs Are Selling, But Will Anybody Buy?

According to ESPN Chicago, the Cubs are already preparing to internally discuss trading some of their expensive, veteran pieces away. This should come as little surprise. The trade deadline is a mere five weeks away, and the Cubs sit in fifth place, ten games out of first with little hope for a comeback. The Cubs have plenty of high-cost veterans they will look to move, such as Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Zambrano, and Kosuke Fukudome. The question: can they find anybody willing to take these players on, and if so, how much much cash will the Cubs themselves have to throw into the deal?

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Zack Greinke Finds His Zone

Every season, there’s one pitcher whose results completely undersell his skills as a pitcher. This year, it’s Zack Greinke. Through his first nine starts, Greinke’s strikeout to walk ratio sat at 70 to nine. Naturally, then Greinke’s ERA was 5.23 entering Tuesday night’s start against Tampa Bay. Those around Milwaukee started to wonder about the supposed ace, trying to find reasons for his failures, ranging from just losing his control in big spots to the old standby, his history of mental issues.

Last night, Greinke finally found his ace zone, putting together easily his best start of the season. He went seven innings against a Rays lineup loaded with left-handed batters, striking out ten, inducing 11 ground balls in 16 balls in play, and now allowing a single walk. Such fantastic peripheral numbers are no stranger to Greinke on this young season. He struck out ten batters in his previous start against the Chicago Cubs, but allowed eight runs. This time, the results fit the peripherals: the Rays only managed one run on four hits.

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Brett Gardner: Elite Player

Observe, if you will, the following WAR leaderboard, covering from the beginning of the 2010 season to the current date.

There, in 12th place amongst all position players, sits New York Yankees left fielder Brett Gardner. His total of 9.2 is closer to fifth place then it is to 13th place. Perhaps he hasn’t done it in the traditional way — blasting the ball across the ballpark and hitting his way into the hearts and minds of baseball fans — but there should be little doubt. Brett Gardner is one of baseball’s elite.

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Jack Moore FanGraphs Chat – 6/21/11


Checking on the Pitchers’ Bats

With the second go-round of interleague play looming and roughly 40% of the season done, now seems like a good time to check in on how well pitchers are hitting. Although it’s usually not given too much thought, having a group of starting pitchers who are capable of putting bat to baseball outside of just laying down the sacrifice bunt can make a big difference. Let’s take a look at which National League teams’s hitters are better at being really bad hitters through yesterday’s games:

TM. PA. AVG.. OBP.. SLG.. wOBA wRC+ RAAP
ARI 160 0.162 0.208 0.243 0.206 +21 +6.8
LAN 155 0.162 0.232 0.208 0.206 +24 +6.6
HOU 139 0.176 0.210 0.227 0.199 +16 +5.1
FLA 155 0.165 0.221 0.181 0.190 .+9 +4.4
MIL 160 0.157 0.186 0.229 0.187 .+9 +4.2
CIN 156 0.161 0.173 0.219 0.174 .-2 +2.3
SFN 162 0.138 0.179 0.196 0.172 .-2 +2.1
PHI 169 0.158 0.185 0.178 0.165 -10 +1.2
CHN 140 0.144 0.164 0.192 0.161 -13 +0.5
WAS 155 0.126 0.165 0.134 0.142 -20 -2.0
COL 162 0.131 0.137 0.168 0.135 -30 -3.1
STL 164 0.113 0.143 0.141 0.132 -26 -3.6
ATL 150 0.096 0.137 0.120 0.123 -33 -4.4
SDN 138 0.105 0.118 0.137 0.115 -31 -5.0
NYN 153 0.087 0.120 0.126 0.114 -38 -5.7
PIT 154 0.083 0.109 0.098 0.097 -53 -8.0
AVG 155 0.135 0.168 0.175 0.157 -11 +0.0

The Dodgers have been powered so far by Chad Billingsley’s fantastic 8/26 line, including three doubles, a homer, and three walks. Barry Enright and Zach Duke, although they only have 21 combined PAs, have slugged three homers for Arizona. Zack Greinke has a homer for Milwaukee; Yovani Gallardo and Randy Wolf also have on-base percentages above .250. Houston has been powered by J.A. Happ’s .304/.360/.487 line, his .370 wOBA second only to Billingsley’s .401. Other notables include the ever-present Carlos Zambrano (.363 wOBA), Clayton Kershaw (.313 OBP), and Jason Hammel (.200 wOBA, but a homer against Greinke).

The bottom of the leaderboard presents some pretty hilarious lines, chief among them that of baseball’s best pitcher to date: Roy Halladay. Halladay has only two hits and a walk to go with 19 strikeouts in 44 plate appearances, good for a .069 wOBA. Remarkably enough, though, he has scored two runs already this year. Other oh-fer kings include Jhoulys Chacin (.093 wOBA), Kevin Correia (.066 wOBA), Charlie Morton (.047 wOBA), and Kyle Lohse (.084 wOBA). Most of these guys have pitched well this season, but it really should be noted that their poor performance at the plate does hurt the team a bit. Halladay, for example, will likely be a full win below the major league average by the time the season is over. Not that I wouldn’t take him, but that does sharply reduce his value to a National League club.